1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed meeting minutes showed significant differences among participants regarding the December interest - rate decision. Many thought it was not suitable to cut rates in December, while some were concerned about the disorderly decline of the stock market. The "new Fed newswire" believed that a slight majority of policymakers were uneasy about a December rate cut [8][23]. - For precious metals, the long - term upward trend of gold and silver is certain, but the short - term prices are volatile. Gold should be bought on dips, and silver may reach a new high this year if the macro - sentiment is favorable [9][10]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil have been following the decline of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil, and the long - term strength reversal of low - sulfur fuel oil should be watched out for [11]. - PX supply is tight due to increased overseas aromatics blending demand and the planned reduction of South Korea's GS disproportionation unit, and its price has risen [12]. - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is strong, but the risk of a price correction in the first - quarter demand off - season should be noted [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fed Meeting and Macro - news - The Fed meeting minutes revealed that participants had different views on the December policy decision. Some thought a rate cut in December might be appropriate, many preferred to keep rates unchanged this year. Most believed that rate cuts in the context of high inflation and a cooling job market could exacerbate inflation risks. Almost all supported ending the balance - sheet reduction in December, and many supported increasing the proportion of short - term debt holdings [8]. - U.S. economic data is missing after the government shutdown, which has reduced the December rate - cut expectations. The 10 - month non - farm payroll report will not be released, and the 11 - month report is rescheduled to December 16 [10]. 3.2 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - Gold: The price has been affected by the change in rate - cut expectations. The recent fundamentals show that the price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 937.00 with a daily increase of 2.01%, and the night - session price was 935.42 with a 0.53% increase. The overall trend is that the long - term is upward, but short - term fluctuations are large [9][10][20]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 12141 with a daily increase of 3.81%, and the night - session price was 12035.00 with a 0.63% increase. The spot supply is tight, and there is potential for a new high [9][10][20]. 3.3 Fuel Oil and Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil: The spot trading was active in November, but the premium remained low. With the end of refinery maintenance in the Middle East, the supply is expected to increase, and it will be under pressure in the Asia - Pacific region [11]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: It has been strengthening recently due to ongoing refinery maintenance in Brazil, Japan, etc., and the high cracking spread of European gasoline and diesel. However, as overseas refineries return to operation in mid - November, there is a risk of price decline [11]. 3.4 PX - The supply of PX is tight due to increased overseas aromatics blending demand and the planned reduction of South Korea's GS disproportionation unit. The price has risen, and operations such as 5 - 9 spread positive arbitrage, long PX and short PTA/PF/PR, and long PX and short pure benzene hedging are recommended [12]. 3.5 Lithium Carbonate - The short - term trend is strong, but the industry is still in the de - stocking cycle. The spot trading is light, and downstream acceptance of high - price lithium salts is low. In the medium - term, the risk of price correction in the first - quarter off - season should be noted [13][48]. 3.6 Other Commodities - Copper: The price lacks a clear driver and is in a state of shock. The fundamentals show that the price of Shanghai Copper's main contract closed at 86110 with a 0.53% daily increase [24]. - Zinc: LME inventories have increased. The price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract closed at 22420 with a 0.49% daily increase [27]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory limits the price decline. The price of Shanghai Lead's main contract closed at 17250 with a 0.12% daily increase [30]. - Tin: The price has fallen from a high level. The price of Shanghai Tin's main contract closed at 288890 with a - 0.51% daily increase [34]. - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound shock. The price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 21570 [39]. - Nickel: The price has broken through the support level and is under pressure. The price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 115650 [42]. - Stainless steel: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but the downside space is limited. The price of the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12335 [43]. - Industrial silicon: It is recommended to short on rallies. The price of Si2601 closed at 9390 [52]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when the positive - arbitrage funds leave the market. The price of PS2601 closed at 54625 [52]. - Iron ore: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The price of the iron - ore futures contract closed at 791.5 [55]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of RB2601 closed at 3070, and the price of HC2601 closed at 3277 [58]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5462, and the price of silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5642 [62]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are in a wide - range shock. The price of JM2601 closed at 1139.5, and the price of J2601 closed at 1639 [65]. - Logs: The price fluctuates repeatedly [67].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers short - term outlooks for various commodities, suggesting that most commodities are in a state of shock, with some showing specific trends such as pressure or potential rebounds [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: There is a lack of clear drivers, and prices are in a shock state, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: LME inventories are accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventories limit price declines, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina continues to face pressure, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][27]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are limited fundamental changes, and market sentiment changes should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][32]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is to short at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when long - short arbitrage funds leave the market, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][49]. Forestry Products - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock state, with a trend strength not mentioned [2][51]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits [2][28]. - **PTA**: It is in a single - sided shock market, and chasing high prices is not recommended [2][28]. - **MEG**: New device production leads to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure remains [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock state [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has support during the shock [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a narrow - range shock [2][34]. - **PP**: Do not short in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock state [2][38]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][40]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak shock state, and the downward space is narrowing [2][41]. - **Urea**: It has support in the short - term shock [2][43]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock [2][45]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][46]. - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [2][47]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is in a bottom - range shock [2][47]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session prices continued to correct, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remains at a high level [2][51]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, and it is mainly in a range - bound shock [2][59]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock state [2][63]. - **Sugar**: It is in a weak state [2][65]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices maintain a shock trend [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse arbitrage pattern [2][68]. - **Pigs**: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][69]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the actions of oil mills [2][70].

从需求端来看，传统领域需求疲软与新兴领域需求强劲形成对比，但整体需求存在较强韧性。铜的传统消费终端行业——地产与家 电2025年表现欠佳。中国房地产市场仍处于调整期，抑制了地产领域的铜需求。虽然"保交楼"等政策起到了一定托底作用，但难以 扭转整体下滑的趋势。据SMM数据，预计2025年建筑地产终端耗铜量同比将下滑1.67%。家电板块内销及外销均承压。内销方面， 随着国补政策长期化，其对消费的边际提振效果减弱，行业逐步回归由实际需求驱动的逻辑。2025年下半年以来，空调、冰箱内销 排产增速同比均开始下行。外销方面，第一季度表现亮眼，但从4月开始外销排产节奏出现趋势性下滑。主要原因有三点：一是海 外备货高峰期已过，市场逐步进入去库阶段；二是去年同期外销产量基数较高；三是出口面临关税压力。 尽管地产与家电领域仍存拖累效应，但电力与新能源板块产生强力支撑。电力板块占铜需求的40%~50%，是全球铜消费的"压舱 石"。全球范围内的电网升级和扩张是一大需求亮点。无论是中国为消纳西部新能源而建设的"特高压"线路，还是欧美为适应可再 生能源并网而推进的老旧电网改造，都将为铜需求提供持续支撑。此外，光伏、风电和新能源汽车增速亮 ...

公司本期中期票据发行相关文件详见中国货币网（www.chinamoney.com.cn）和上海清算所网站 （www.shclearing.com.cn）。 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 云南铜业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于2025年 11月18日完成了2025年度第四期科技创新债券的 发行，募集资金已于2025年11月19日全额到账，发行结果如下： ■ 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：000878 证券简称：云南铜业 公告编号：2025-092 云南铜业股份有限公司 关于2025年度第四期中期票据发行结果的公告 特此公告。 云南铜业股份有限公司董事会 2025年11月19日 ...

Core Insights - Chile's copper production is expected to increase by 2.5% by 2026, reaching 5.6 million tons [1] Industry Summary - The Chilean Copper Commission forecasts a growth in copper output, indicating a positive trend for the copper industry in Chile [1]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 11 月 19 日 铜：内外库存增加，价格承压 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 85,660 | -0.91% | 85900 | 0.28% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 10,698 | -0.64% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 208,908 | -43,900 | 521,539 | -20,218 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 24,521 | 8,122 | 320,000 | 4,891 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 60,874 | 3,909 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 140,500 | 4,450 | 6.35% | -0.61% ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is cautiously bullish [7]. Group 2: Core View of the Report - Although high copper prices significantly suppress consumption, due to tight supply at the mine end and better - than - expected performance of new energy sectors like photovoltaics in the second half of the year, copper prices are likely to maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern [7]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On November 17, 2025, the main SHFE copper contract opened at 86,640 yuan/ton and closed at 86,450 yuan/ton, a 0.52% decline from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 86,440 yuan/ton and closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, a 0.10% decline from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - On the previous day, SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was quoted at 86,300 - 86,720 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 105 yuan/ton over the current - month contract, a 50 - yuan increase from the previous day. The procurement and sales sentiment in the market declined. Shanghai's procurement index was 3.07 and the sales index was 3.22. Good - quality copper resources were in short supply, with a premium of 80 - 120 yuan/ton for the next - month contract. Flat - grade copper with a discount of 50 yuan/ton was quickly traded [2]. Important Information Summary - Fed Vice Chair Jefferson signaled a dovish stance, stating that the downside risk to employment has increased and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed should cut interest rates again in the December meeting. US White House National Economic Council Director Hasset pointed out that the job market showed "mixed signals" [3]. Mining End - On November 16, a serious accident occurred at a semi - industrial copper mine in southeastern Congo (Kinshasa), where a bridge collapse led to about 30 miners' deaths and many injuries. The official death toll may reach 49, with 20 people in critical condition. The accident was caused by military personnel shooting, which led to miners' panic and a stampede [4]. Smelting and Import - Last week, the Yangshan copper premium continued to weaken. The average weekly price of bills of lading was 45.4 US dollars/ton, a 1.4 - dollar decrease from the previous week. The import window remained closed, with a loss of about 850 yuan/ton. The foreign - trade market was sluggish, but there were two areas of structural activity [5]. Consumption - Sichuan Southwest Copper Co., Ltd.'s Phase II expansion project has completed its main construction and entered the final stage. After full operation, the company's total production capacity will reach 170,000 tons. It is expected to achieve a production value of 1.5 billion yuan in the fourth quarter and 4.5 billion yuan for the whole year [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 450 tons to 136,050 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 7,135 tons to 56,965 tons. On November 17, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 193,800 tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons from the previous week [6]. Strategy Copper - Operators can buy on dips for hedging between 85,000 - 85,500 yuan/ton, and enterprises with selling - hedging needs can operate between 88,500 - 89,000 yuan/ton [7]. Arbitrage - Put on hold [7]. Options - Short put [7].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-11-18 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-11-18 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 前 10 月全国一般公共预算收入同比增长 0.8%，支出增长 2% 观点分享： 11 月 17 日财政部公布数据显示，1—10 月全国一般公共预算收入 186490 亿元，同比 增长 0.8%。其中全国税收收入 153364 亿元，同比增长 1.7%；非税收入 33126 亿元，同比 下降 3.1%。分中央和地方看，中央一般公共预算收入同比下降 0.8%；地方一般公共预算本 级收入同比增长 2.1%。印花税同比增长 29.5%，其中，证券交易印花税同比增长 88.1%。 1—10 月全国一般公共预算支出 225825 亿元，同比增长 2%。分中央和地方看，中央一般 公共预算本级支出 34727 亿元，同比增长 6.3%；地方一般公共预算支出 191098 亿元，同 比增长 1.2%。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | ★★★★ | 烧碱：趋势仍有压力。 烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯碱利润 ...

瑞银（UBS）重申了其对铜的建设性立场，认为即使市场在短期内经历了供需疲软期，铜的结构性紧缩 状况仍然未改。 以Daniel Major为首的瑞银分析师团队认为，现货市场"平衡但并不紧张"，一些细分市场的需求疲软， 以及与关税相关的预购积压，打压了市场情绪。 然而，矿山生产中断、评级下调和投资者对硬资产重新燃起的兴趣使投机性头寸居高不下。 瑞银团队认为，铜的配置在2026年仍然有利。他们预计需求将增长约3%，而矿山和精炼供应增长不到 1%，他们认为这将导致供应短缺、库存减少和基本面更加稳固。 然而，该团队警告称，目前的环境不太可能在短期内支撑铜价持续突破每吨11,000美元。 "由于需求不太可能在短期内产生影响，精炼产量保持不变，LME净头寸上升，我们认为，基本面收紧 不太可能为LME铜在短期内持续突破11,000美元提供催化剂。" 在精炼铜方面，尽管精矿供应紧张，且废铜可用性有限，但产量仍保持惊人的韧性。据中国国家统计局 发布的数据显示，1-9月中国精炼铜产量同比增加10.0%。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 156 5309 0867 包括菲律宾、纳米比亚和智利在内的其他国家的减产不足以抵消这一增长。瑞银 ...

信息披露工作评价主要是对上市公司信息披露质量及相关工作情况的综合评价，包括信息披露合规性、 有效性、行业信息披露情况、信息披露制度建设、董事会秘书日常信息披露履职和投资者关系管理等， 而A级是上市公司信息披露工作评价的最高等级。 作为中铝集团和中国铜业旗下唯一的铜产业上市公司，云南铜业始终高度重视规范运作、信息披露与投 资者关系管理。在治理体系方面，公司于2025年6月顺利完成监事会改革与职权承接过渡，及时修订 《公司章程》《股东会议事规则》等治理制度，通过强化流程监督与制衡，为规范运作奠定制度基础。 在信息披露方面，公司严守合规底线，严格执行公告复核机制，确保信息披露质量；持续优化定期报告 的呈现形式与内容，不断提升信息披露的深度与广度，实现日常信披工作"零差错"。在投资者关系方 面，公司坚持以投资者为中心，不断拓宽沟通渠道，积极传递公司发展战略与经营成果，增强投资者回 报的持续性和稳定性，实现沟通效能与公司价值同步提升。 近日，深圳证券交易所公布2024-2025年度信息披露工作评价结果，云南铜业股份有限公司（以下简 称"云南铜业"）再次获评A级。至此，云南铜业已连续四年保持信息披露工作A级评价。 "云南 ...