Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2. Core View - Social inventory is continuously declining, spot supply is tight, and spot premiums are slightly rebounding, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Although overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. TC will continue to rise in June. There is still profit in smelting at the current TC price, and the supply pressure remains. The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level, but consumption may be tested in June and may weaken month - on - month after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.55/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 140 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 30 yuan/ton to 390 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 22,550 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 20 yuan/ton to 370 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 130 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 40 yuan/ton to 390 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 26, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,155 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 142,739 lots, an increase of 15,550 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 118,520 lots, an increase of 4,451 lots from the previous trading day. The highest price during the day was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,085 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 26, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 23, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 153,500 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Social inventory is continuously declining, leading to tight spot supply and a slight rebound in spot premiums, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. - **Supply**: Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. TC will continue to rise in June. There is still profit in smelting at the current TC price, and domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, so there is no condition for TC to be lowered in the short term. - **Demand**: The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level. However, due to the approaching end of the export rush window and possible over - consumption, consumption may weaken month - on - month after June [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Low zinc ingot inventory restricts the downside space of zinc prices. The consumption resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices, but there is a possibility of weakening consumption after May [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$39.30 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 90 yuan/ton to 22,770 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 515 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also decreased, while their premiums increased [1] - **Futures**: On May 7, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,300 yuan/ton, closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 155,956 lots, an increase of 40,900 lots, and the open interest was 116,701 lots, an increase of 4,986 lots [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 84,100 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous week. As of May 7, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 171,400 tons, a decrease of 1,525 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Cost**: TC remains high and relatively stable, with limited upside potential in the future. It does not affect smelters' profits and is not the main concern for now [3] - **Supply**: In May, the expected output is slightly lower, but still shows high year - on - year growth. There may be a delay in maintenance, and the supply pressure remains [3] - **Consumption**: It is the current focus. The continuous decline in social inventory and the rising spot premium support zinc prices. However, due to the approaching end of the export rush window and possible over - consumption, consumption may weaken month - on - month after May [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-29 锌价冲高乏力 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-33.73 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌300元/吨至22880元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨80元/吨至450元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌330元/吨至22910 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨50元/吨至480元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌300元 /吨至22960元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨80元/吨至530元/吨。 期货方面：2025-04-28沪锌主力合约开于22630元/吨，收于22520元/吨，较前一交易日下跌225元/吨，全天交易日 成交149791手，较前一交易日减少53425手，全天交易日持仓117883手，较前一交易日减少4544手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22650元/吨，最低点达到22380元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-04-28，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.59万吨，较上周同期减少-0.71万吨。截止2025-04-28，LME 锌库存为179325吨，较上一交易日减少725吨。 市 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating trend [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot Market**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$15.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,920 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 220 yuan/ton to 490 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 220 yuan/ton to 22,900 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 290 yuan/ton to 470 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,980 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 230 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Market**: On April 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,445 yuan/ton and closed at 22,515 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 155,488 lots, an increase of 22,142 lots, and the position was 105,798 lots, an increase of 41,317 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,355 yuan/ton and 22,595 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 105,600 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 117,300 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The change of the main contract led to a significant increase in the premium of the spot to the main contract, but the premium of the actual spot market transaction to the 05 contract declined [4]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the TC has not changed its upward trend so far, but the future upward space and amplitude are limited. Currently, with the high TC and price, the smelting enthusiasm is high, and the supply will continue to increase, which will limit the upward height of zinc prices. Consumption is relatively strong. The export market has not been affected by tariffs, and the year - on - year export growth rate is relatively fast. After the absolute price dropped, the downstream's enthusiasm for point - price procurement was high, the social inventory decreased significantly, the spot premium rose rapidly, and the low inventory provided favorable support for zinc prices, resulting in a range - bound trend of zinc prices [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread [5]