Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - Zinc prices face upward pressure again. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the lack of fundamental drivers for price increases. If social inventories continue to rise, it will exert significant downward pressure on zinc prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$24.65/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 200 yuan/ton to 22,150 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 130 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 250 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 180 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 170 yuan/ton to 22,100 yuan/ton, and the premium rose by 100 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On June 24, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,875 yuan/ton and closed at 21,920 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 185,998 lots, an increase of 88,110 lots, and the position was 121,470 lots, an increase of 53,580 lots. The highest price reached 22,030 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,825 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of June 23, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 24, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 123,450 tons, a decrease of 2,450 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Transportation in South China may be affected, but the spot market is not strong due to low inventory, and the spot premium continues to decline. Zinc alloy开工率 has dropped significantly, and a negative feedback of hidden inventory may occur. TC remains stable overall, and the overseas zinc ore shipment volume is increasing. Although the further upward space is limited, the strong trend remains unchanged. There are still smelting profits at the current TC price, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains [4] Strategy - Consumption shows a marginal decline, the spot premium has dropped significantly, and zinc price increases lack fundamental drivers. If social inventories continue to increase, it will form significant downward pressure [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro**: As of the end of May, China's broad money (M2) balance was 325.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%. Narrow money (M1) balance was 108.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. In the first five months, net cash investment was 30.64 billion yuan [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Last week, zinc prices continued to fluctuate. Geopolitical events had little impact on zinc prices. In June, the downstream entered the off - season, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of social inventories. In terms of fundamentals, the cyclical supply of zinc ore is becoming looser. In 2025, several major zinc ore projects at home and abroad have production increase plans. The recovery of global zinc ore production has led to a continuous marginal strengthening of zinc ore spot TC. The increase in ore production is transmitted to the smelting end. With the improvement of smelting profits, the operating rate of domestic smelters has increased, and maintenance has been postponed. The output of refined zinc has marginally recovered, and the production increase situation in the ore and smelting ends is expected to continue. On the demand side, trade disputes may drag down the global economic growth rate, and there is a hidden worry of contraction in the total zinc demand. Even if countries quickly reach new trade agreements and the global economic growth rate maintains resilience, there is no expectation of an increase in the total zinc demand, and it will mainly remain at the existing level. Whether the demand is estimated to be optimistic or pessimistic, the zinc supply - demand balance tends to be in surplus, putting downward pressure on the long - term zinc price center [6]. - **Strategy**: In the short and medium term, due to the low level of social inventories, the monthly spread is still wide, and the back structure is deep, supporting the near - month contracts. However, with the continuous recovery of the smelting end, the high premium is expected to be temporary. In terms of strategy, short positions can still be considered for far - month contracts when prices are high [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Fundamentals - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Production**: In March 2025, the global zinc concentrate output was 1.0184 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%. The international long - term TC price of zinc ore in 2025 was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, and was halved compared with the previous year. Overseas high - cost smelters may face operational pressure. However, the long - term TC in 2024 was seriously overestimated, and the trend of marginal loosening of zinc ore supply has not changed [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to April, China's cumulative import of zinc concentrate was 1.7137 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.5%. The increase in imported ore volume boosted the processing fees. As of June 13, the processing fee for imported ore was reported at $53/ton, and the processing fee for domestic ore was reported at 3,600 yuan/ton. Both domestic and imported ore processing fees have been raised several times recently [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: With the continuous increase in processing fees, the profits of smelters have been continuously improved [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In March 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1219 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.91%. In May 2025, China's refined zinc output was 550,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. As profits recover, output is gradually increasing [18]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to April 2025, China's cumulative net import of refined zinc was 120,000 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. 3.2 Industry Fundamentals - Consumption Side - **Initial Consumption of Refined Zinc**: In April, China's galvanized sheet output was 2.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.64%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products was relatively sluggish, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventories in the industrial chain [25]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Infrastructure and Real Estate**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) declined. The back - end of the real estate market improved month - on - month, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction were still weak [27]. - **Terminal Consumption of Refined Zinc - Automobiles and Home Appliances**: In May 2025, China's automobile output was 2.6485 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.65%. In some regions, the national subsidy funds were exhausted, and the production and sales of home appliances cooled down. Attention should be paid to the impact of subsequent tariffs [30]. 3.3 Other Indicators - **Inventory**: At low prices, downstream enterprises made excessive purchases to replenish inventories, and social inventories continued to decline. As the off - season approaches, the inflection point of social inventories is approaching [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of June 13, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount of zinc was reported at a discount of $22.95/ton. Due to the low level of social inventories, the spot premium was high [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of June 6, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 11,086 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc increased significantly [38].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices face significant upward pressure. The supply side has high pressure with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year. Although consumption is currently strong, it can't offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$32.08/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 22,310 yuan/ton, with the premium down 15 yuan/ton to 260 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 30 yuan/ton to 22,330 yuan/ton, with the premium up 5 yuan/ton to 280 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 20 yuan/ton to 22,280 yuan/ton, with the premium down 5 yuan/ton to 230 yuan/ton [1] - Futures: On June 12, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,100 yuan/ton, closed at 22,085 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 118,688 lots, down 51,539 lots. Open interest was 121,089 lots, down 4,690 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 21,965 - 22,160 yuan/ton [1] - Inventory: As of June 12, 2025, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 77,100 tons, down 2,200 tons from last week. LME zinc inventory was 132,025 tons, down 550 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - Spot market: Downstream procurement enthusiasm is still low, and spot premiums continue to decline [3] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with expected supply growth of around 10% in June and long - term high supply growth in the second half of the year [3] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs is not yet apparent. It can't offset high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot premium of zinc has further weakened. The supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate likely in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong, it cannot offset the high supply growth and shows signs of weakening seasonally [1][4] - For trading strategies, a cautious and bearish stance is recommended for single - side trading, and a neutral stance for arbitrage [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is -$33.05/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 140 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 20 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,300 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium down 10 yuan/ton to 235 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On June 11, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton and closed at 22,140 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 170,227 lots, an increase of 11,596 lots. Open interest was 125,779 lots, a decrease of 9,292 lots. The highest price was 22,205 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,855 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory: As of June 9, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 11, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 132,575 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - Spot market: After the absolute price increase, the spot purchasing enthusiasm declined, and the spot premium further weakened [4] - Supply: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and long - term high supply growth likely in the second half of the year [4] - Consumption: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of China - US tariffs has not yet appeared. It cannot offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of seasonal weakening [4] Strategy - Single - side trading: Cautious and bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] Core View - Zinc prices are testing the lower support level. The supply pressure remains high, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate in the second half of the year. Although consumption is strong overall, it is difficult to offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of a sequential decline in consumption due to the seasonal off - season [1][4] Key Data Spot and Futures - LME zinc spot premium is -$35.03 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 430 yuan/ton to 22,160 yuan/ton, and its premium dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 295 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also declined, while their premiums increased. The SHFE zinc main contract opened at 21,945 yuan/ton, closed at 21,845 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 158,631 lots, a decrease of 83,562 lots, and positions were 135,071 lots, a decrease of 647 lots [2] Inventory - As of June 9, 2025, SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 81,700 tons, an increase of 4,300 tons from last week. As of June 10, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 134,550 tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: As the absolute price fell, downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased, and the spot premium stopped falling and stabilized [4] - **Supply**: Port and smelter raw material inventories are sufficient, TC is rising, and smelting profits are high. Supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high supply growth rate in the second half of the year [4] - **Consumption**: Overall consumption is strong, but the impact of Sino - US tariffs has not been felt. However, it is difficult to offset the high supply growth, and there are signs of a sequential decline in consumption due to the seasonal off - season [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Unilateral: Neutral; Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [4] Group 2: Core Views - The rising absolute price of zinc has weakened the purchasing enthusiasm in the spot market, and both the spot premium and monthly spread have slightly declined. The supply pressure remains, with a 10% supply growth expected in June and a long - term high - supply growth rate in the second half of the year. The impact of Sino - US tariffs on consumption has not yet appeared, and the consumption is guaranteed. The comprehensive decline in inventory strongly supports the zinc price, but there is a risk of weakening consumption in June [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$26.08/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,790 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 590 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,660 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, with a flat spot premium of 460 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,760 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is 560 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On June 3, 2025, the main contract of SHFE zinc opened at 22,330 yuan/ton and closed at 22,180 yuan/ton, down 105 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 155,440 lots, down 26,261 lots, and the open interest was 122,728 lots, up 6,114 lots. The highest price was 22,515 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,090 yuan/ton [1] Inventory - As of June 3, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 77,400 tons, down 1,400 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 137,350 tons, down 800 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5] 2. Core View - Social inventory is continuously declining, spot supply is tight, and spot premiums are slightly rebounding, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor. Although overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. TC will continue to rise in June. There is still profit in smelting at the current TC price, and the supply pressure remains. The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level, but consumption may be tested in June and may weaken month - on - month after June. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$21.55/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 140 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 30 yuan/ton to 390 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price dropped by 150 yuan/ton to 22,550 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 20 yuan/ton to 370 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price dropped by 130 yuan/ton to 22,570 yuan/ton, and the spot premium rose by 40 yuan/ton to 390 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On May 26, 2025, the opening price of the SHFE zinc main contract was 22,155 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 22,185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 142,739 lots, an increase of 15,550 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 118,520 lots, an increase of 4,451 lots from the previous trading day. The highest price during the day was 22,300 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,085 yuan/ton [2] - **Inventory**: As of May 26, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 78,800 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the same period last week. As of May 23, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 153,500 tons, a decrease of 2,725 tons from the previous trading day [3] Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: Social inventory is continuously declining, leading to tight spot supply and a slight rebound in spot premiums, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low. - **Supply**: Overseas mine production in Q1 was lower than expected, but it does not change the expectation of zinc ingot surplus. TC will continue to rise in June. There is still profit in smelting at the current TC price, and domestic smelters have sufficient raw material inventory, so there is no condition for TC to be lowered in the short term. - **Demand**: The strong current consumption supports the zinc price to oscillate at a high level. However, due to the approaching end of the export rush window and possible over - consumption, consumption may weaken month - on - month after June [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Arbitrage: Inter - period positive spread [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Neutral [4] 2. Core View - Low zinc ingot inventory restricts the downside space of zinc prices. The consumption resilience and inventory changes are the main factors affecting zinc prices, but there is a possibility of weakening consumption after May [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$39.30 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped by 90 yuan/ton to 22,770 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 55 yuan/ton to 515 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices also decreased, while their premiums increased [1] - **Futures**: On May 7, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,300 yuan/ton, closed at 22,210 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 155,956 lots, an increase of 40,900 lots, and the open interest was 116,701 lots, an increase of 4,986 lots [1] - **Inventory**: As of May 6, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 84,100 tons, a decrease of 1,800 tons from the previous week. As of May 7, 2025, LME zinc inventory was 171,400 tons, a decrease of 1,525 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - **Cost**: TC remains high and relatively stable, with limited upside potential in the future. It does not affect smelters' profits and is not the main concern for now [3] - **Supply**: In May, the expected output is slightly lower, but still shows high year - on - year growth. There may be a delay in maintenance, and the supply pressure remains [3] - **Consumption**: It is the current focus. The continuous decline in social inventory and the rising spot premium support zinc prices. However, due to the approaching end of the export rush window and possible over - consumption, consumption may weaken month - on - month after May [3]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-04-29 锌价冲高乏力 重要数据 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-33.73 美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日下跌300元/吨至22880元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨80元/吨至450元/吨，SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日下跌330元/吨至22910 元/吨。SMM广东锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨50元/吨至480元/吨，SMM天津锌现货价较前一交易日下跌300元 /吨至22960元/吨。SMM天津锌现货升贴水较前一交易日上涨80元/吨至530元/吨。 期货方面：2025-04-28沪锌主力合约开于22630元/吨，收于22520元/吨，较前一交易日下跌225元/吨，全天交易日 成交149791手，较前一交易日减少53425手，全天交易日持仓117883手，较前一交易日减少4544手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到22650元/吨，最低点达到22380元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-04-28，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为8.59万吨，较上周同期减少-0.71万吨。截止2025-04-28，LME 锌库存为179325吨，较上一交易日减少725吨。 市 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating trend [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot Market**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$15.80 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 150 yuan/ton to 22,920 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 220 yuan/ton to 490 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 220 yuan/ton to 22,900 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 290 yuan/ton to 470 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 160 yuan/ton to 22,980 yuan/ton, with the premium rising by 230 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures Market**: On April 14, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,445 yuan/ton and closed at 22,515 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 155,488 lots, an increase of 22,142 lots, and the position was 105,798 lots, an increase of 41,317 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,355 yuan/ton and 22,595 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of April 14, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 105,600 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons from the previous week. The LME zinc inventory was 117,300 tons, a decrease of 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - **Spot Market**: The change of the main contract led to a significant increase in the premium of the spot to the main contract, but the premium of the actual spot market transaction to the 05 contract declined [4]. - **Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the TC has not changed its upward trend so far, but the future upward space and amplitude are limited. Currently, with the high TC and price, the smelting enthusiasm is high, and the supply will continue to increase, which will limit the upward height of zinc prices. Consumption is relatively strong. The export market has not been affected by tariffs, and the year - on - year export growth rate is relatively fast. After the absolute price dropped, the downstream's enthusiasm for point - price procurement was high, the social inventory decreased significantly, the spot premium rose rapidly, and the low inventory provided favorable support for zinc prices, resulting in a range - bound trend of zinc prices [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. - **Arbitrage**: Inter - period positive spread [5]