来源：新浪基金 港股通医疗板块，彻底嗨了！2026年港股开市以来，港股通医疗主题指数不间断上涨，截至今日（1月 14日）收盘，日线豪取9连阳，创下历史最长连阳纪录！ 中信建投证券指出，脑机接口升级为十五五产业战略，多重政策强力支持下，产业落地有望提速。脑机 接口是医疗投资也是科技投资，长期来看，若能实现增强人、并与A和机器人融合，有望打开万亿市场 空间。（来源：中信建投证券2025年12月29研报《脑机接口行业系列研究之二：从修复大脑到增强人 类，十五五政策赋能万亿市场崛起》） 港股通医疗ETF华宝（159137）被动跟踪港股通医疗主题指数，自1月12日上市以来连续3日大涨，场内 涨幅分别为4.7%、3.44%、2.49%，成交额逐日放大，今日成交额达2.59亿元。 港股通医疗ETF华宝（159137）覆盖港股医疗各领域50只龙头股，今日AI医疗概念再度领衔涨势，权重 股阿里健康断层领涨18.96%，盘中一度狂飙逾20%！一脉阳光、微创机器人-B分别大涨9.98%、 8.62%。 消息面，阿里健康在AI医疗领域近期迎来多项实质性利好。AI健康管理平台"蚂蚁阿福"实现规模化落 地，月活跃用户突破3000万。1月 ...

更具含金量的是盈利端表现。2025年，公司扣非净利润约人民币132亿元，同比增长约32.56%；归母净 利润约人民币191亿元，同比增长约102.65%；净利润率超过40%；多项核心利润指标增速显著快于收入 增长，反映出公司在规模扩张的同时，经营效率与盈利质量持续提升。 高质量增长：利润弹性背后的结构性支撑 1月13日，药明康德发布2025年度业绩预增公告。公告显示，公司预计2025年全年实现营业收入约455亿 元，同比增长约15.84%；得益于化学业务后期研发和商业化合约及TIDES业务表现出色，公司持续经营 业务收入同比增长约21.40%，显著优于此前预期的17%至18%。 业绩预增公告发布后，药明康德公司A股与H股股价均大幅上涨，引领A股医药板块的涨幅，中证医疗 指数盘中上涨2.85%，CS创新药指数上涨2.37%。这一市场反应，本质上是对公司业绩确定性与长期价 值的重新定价。 这背后，是管理层对行业趋势的前瞻判断、对全球客户需求的深度理解，以及在资源调配与风险应对上 的系统能力。能够在逆风环境中保持订单增长，本身就是企业核心竞争力的集中体现。 减持落地后的再审视：基本面才是定价核心 此前减持事项在短期 ...

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector is leading the market with significant gains, driven by multiple overseas innovative drug collaborations and catalysts [1] - Notable partnerships include Rongchang Biopharma's licensing agreement with AbbVie, which involves an upfront payment of $650 million and potential milestone payments of $4.95 billion, along with double-digit sales royalties [1] - WuXi AppTec has projected a revenue increase of 15.84% for 2025, with adjusted net profit expected to rise by 41.33%, exceeding market expectations [1] Group 2 - AI in healthcare is gaining momentum, with OpenAI integrating health dialogue features into ChatGPT, allowing users to share medical records and connect with various health applications [2] - Tempus AI reported a 111% year-over-year increase in diagnostic revenue, reaching $955 million, highlighting the rapid growth of AI in the medical field [2] - The pharmaceutical sector's global competitiveness is strengthening, with ongoing commercialization and profitability, particularly in innovative drug companies and CXO sectors [2]

Core Insights - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody sector is experiencing a divergence, with Yiming Biotech facing setbacks due to the return of its PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody by partner Axion, while Rongchang Biotech secured a significant licensing deal worth $5.6 billion with AbbVie, highlighting the increasing differentiation within the dual antibody space and outlining the core investment theme for 2026: certainty [1][2] Group 1: Investment Trends - The investment landscape in the pharmaceutical sector is shifting from a focus on broad-based licensing deals to a preference for certainty in value, emphasizing three core anchors: expectation certainty, product certainty, and performance certainty [2][6] - The previous trend of "BD is king" in 2025 led to a surge in licensing deals, but the market is now recalibrating its valuation logic, moving away from blind enthusiasm towards a more rational assessment of the feasibility of these deals [1][2] Group 2: Expectation Certainty - Expectation certainty involves a rational evaluation of the feasibility of BD transactions rather than blind pursuit of total deal amounts, as the probability of new drugs progressing from early clinical stages to market approval is only 7.9% [3][4] - The competitive landscape in the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody sector shows that not all players can achieve their expected value due to overlapping targets and indications, mirroring past trends in the PD-1 monoclonal antibody market [3][4] Group 3: Product Certainty - Product certainty focuses on the potential for substantial sales post-launch, with products that have clear growth logic expected to command higher valuations [5][6] - WanTai Biotech's nine-valent HPV vaccine, priced at 499 yuan per dose (40% of imported vaccines), is positioned for significant market penetration, while Innovent Biologics' Ma Shidu peptide faces challenges due to increased competition and pricing pressures, leading to diminished commercial value [5][6] Group 4: Performance Certainty - Performance certainty seeks companies and sectors with clear growth or recovery expectations, as the essence of investment is capturing expectation differences [7][8] - WuXi AppTec's profit forecast for 2025 indicates a significant growth of 41.33% year-on-year, reflecting its foundational role in the global pharmaceutical supply chain and a potential recovery in valuation due to increased R&D investments [7][8] - The vaccine sector is also poised for recovery, with domestic companies expected to benefit from a broad replacement market and initial overseas expansion, indicating a favorable investment outlook [7][8]

客户端 康龙化成（03759）午前股价上涨4.13%，现报25.20港元，成交额1.98亿港元。 康龙化成公布，该集团预期2025年实现营收约138.72亿-142.4亿元，同比增长13%-16%；归属于上市公 司股东的净利润约16.14亿-16.86亿元，同比下降6%-10%；扣非净利约15.07亿-15.62亿元，同比增长 36%-41%；经调整的非《国际财务报告准则》下归属于上市公司股东的净利润约17.675亿-18.48亿元， 同比增长10%-15%。 康龙化成（03759）午前股价上涨4.13%，现报25.20港元，成交额1.98亿港元。 康龙化成公布，该集团预期2025年实现营收约138.72亿-142.4亿元，同比增长13%-16%；归属于上市公 司股东的净利润约16.14亿-16.86亿元，同比下降6%-10%；扣非净利约15.07亿-15.62亿元，同比增长 36%-41%；经调整的非《国际财务报告准则》下归属于上市公司股东的净利润约17.675亿-18.48亿元， 同比增长10%-15%。 按业绩预告中位值测算，2025年第四季度，公司营业收入同比增长 14.79%、归属于上市公司股东的扣 ...

Core Insights - The PD-1/VEGF dual antibody sector is experiencing a divergence, with Yiming Oncology's PD-L1/VEGF dual antibody facing a setback due to the return of collaboration by Axion, while Rongchang Biopharma secured a $5.6 billion licensing deal with AbbVie, highlighting the increasing differentiation within the dual antibody space and outlining the core investment theme for 2026—certainty [2][3] Group 1: Investment Trends - The 2025 trend of "BD is king" in China's pharmaceutical investment market has shifted, with a focus on the feasibility of BD transactions rather than blind enthusiasm for total deal amounts [2][4] - The market is moving away from generalized sector speculation towards embracing "certainty" in value, which encompasses three core anchors: expectation certainty, product certainty, and performance certainty [3] Group 2: Expectation Certainty - Expectation certainty emphasizes the need to rationally assess the feasibility of BD transactions rather than blindly pursuing total deal amounts, as the probability of new drugs progressing from early clinical stages to market approval is only 7.9% [4][5] - In the competitive PD-1/VEGF dual antibody sector, companies like Kangfang Biopharma, Sanofi, and Rongchang Biopharma have secured overseas licensing deals worth $5 billion, $6.05 billion, and $5.6 billion respectively, but the overlapping targets and indications mean not all players can realize their expected value [4][5] Group 3: Product Certainty - Product certainty focuses on the ability of a drug to achieve substantial sales post-launch, with products that have clear sales growth logic deserving higher valuation premiums [6] - WanTai Biopharma's nine-valent HPV vaccine, priced at 499 yuan per dose (40% of imported vaccines), is expected to penetrate lower-tier markets and drive sales growth starting in 2026 [6] - In contrast, Innovent Biologics' Ma Shidu peptide faces challenges in commercial viability due to increased competition and pricing pressures, leading to a significant reduction in its sales peak expectations [6] Group 4: Performance Certainty - Performance certainty involves identifying companies and sectors with clear growth or recovery expectations, as the essence of investment is capturing expectation differences [7][8] - WuXi AppTec's profit forecast of 14.957 billion yuan for 2025, a 41.33% increase year-on-year, exemplifies performance certainty and reflects the company's foundational role in the global pharmaceutical supply chain [8] - The vaccine sector, having reached a bottom after previous adjustments, shows potential for growth as domestic companies expand into underdeveloped markets, with increasing performance certainty and investment opportunities [8] Conclusion - The transition from "selling BD expectations" to "realizing certainty" marks a significant shift in pharmaceutical investment strategies for 2026 [9]

（三）关注摩根大通医疗健康年会：作为全球产业与资本的核心枢纽，其动向是观测全年趋势的战略风 向标。本届大会汇集了全球数百家生物医药企业与投资机构，其中中国企业的参与度与能见度显著提 升，多家行业龙头在主场及亚太专场进行展示，集中体现了中国医药创新在全球版图中的进阶地位。会 议的核心议题紧密围绕资本配置与战略合作展开，在跨国药企普遍寻求创新增量与供应链韧性的背景 下，具备"创新升级"与"成本优势"的中国资产备受关注。大会成为中国领先公司发布关键临床进展、寻 求全球授权合作（BD）的重要舞台，其反馈与交易动态将深刻影响市场对行业年度前景的判断。 浦银国际认为，中国创新药全球竞争力强劲，出海交易成果丰硕，带来估值重塑；国内政策持续鼓励创 新药及商业保险发展；生物科技龙头商业化盈利能力提升；行业低估值优势明显；美国降息周期开启利 好CXO企业业绩。这些因素吸引资金流入，推动医药板块上涨，创新药板块长期看好，CXO板块2026 年前景乐观，医疗器械下半年或迎复苏，医疗服务细分赛道有亮点。创新药行业长期发展逻辑清晰，创 新药ETF南方(159858.SZ)可作为高效配置工具，把握行业增长机遇。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资 ...

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2026 年 01 月 13 日 医药生物 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《2026 年度医药行业策略：创新出海新征程， 寻找需求新增量》2026-01-05 《医药行业跟踪报告：蚂蚁阿福 App 上线带动 "AI+大健康"投资热情，关注英矽智能新股发 售》2025-12-22 行业及产业 医药板块迎来开门红，2026 年继续看好 创新出海和硬科技 《医药行业跟踪报告：全球减重疗法研究进展 丰富，三靶点激动剂和 siRNA 创新疗法数据亮 眼》2025-12-15 《医药行业跟踪报告：医保商保"双目录"落 地，关注支付端增量》2025-12-10 《抗体偶联药物 ADC 产业投资框架——"精 准化疗"引爆千亿市场，中国创新引领全球浪 潮 20251121》2025-11-21 张智聪 S0820525020002 021-32229888-25524 zhangzhicong@ajzq.com ——医药行业跟踪报告 强于大市 投资要点： 医药板块行情复盘：本周（1/5~1/11）SW 医药生物指数上涨+7.81 ...

港股通医疗ETF华宝（159137）通过跟踪中证港股通医疗主题指数，在投资上全域覆盖了CXO、医疗商 业与服务、医疗器械、生物制药这四大港股医疗领域，其中超80%权重集中于CXO、互联网医疗、高端 医疗器械等行业龙头公司，成份股中"港股独家"的权重占比更是超85%，包括京东健康、阿里健康等"A 无港有"的独家特色标的等，助力投资者充分把握港股医疗领域的机遇。 每日经济新闻 1月13日，以低轨卫星为代表的商业航天板块，突发大幅回调，港股医疗板块早盘强劲大涨，展现接棒 势头。截至目前，港股通医疗ETF华宝（159137）大涨超5%，高居全市场ETF实时涨幅榜第一，盘中该 ETF一度快速拉升超8%，表现强势。2026年以来，港股通医疗主题指数涨幅已超20%，足见"港股医 疗"近期的火热程度。2025年，港股通医疗主题指数全年的涨幅也达到48.20%。 港股医疗板块此前已历经了4年时间的充分调整，港股通医疗主题指数的点位及估值处在历史相对低 位。截至2025年末，指数点位较2021年历史高点回撤逾65%；市盈率（TTM）29.43倍，低于基日以来 65%以上时间区间。整体来看，港股通医疗主题指数的配置性价比较为突出。 ...

创新药预计仍是2026年医药板块最重要的投资主线。当前板块经历近2-3个月调整后，股价、市场预期 与机构配置均已回到相对低位，投资安全边际显著提升。行业正面催化正在密集释放，进入2026年 Q1，以JPM大会为代表的行业盛会，叠加企业商业化及出海进展，将持续提供股价催化剂。同时，海 外流动性环境改善预期升温，美国降息前景强化，美股生物科技指数持续走强，映射出全球创新药投融 资与需求端有望逐步回暖。在此背景下，港股医药ETF（159718）备受关注，该产品覆盖创新药、CXO 等港股特色资产，可便捷布局行业复苏与流动性改善的双重机遇。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资 产，但不保证本基金一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。基金管理人提醒投资人基金投资的"买者自负"原 则，在做出投资决策后，基金运营状况与基金净值变化引致的投资风险，由投资人自行负担。基金的过 往业绩及其净值高低并不预示其未来业绩表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩不构成对本基金业绩 表现的保证。投资人购买基金，既可能按其持有份额分享基金投资所产生的收益，也可能承担基金投资 所带来的损失。投资人应当认 ...