Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic innovative drug sector is entering a phase of "engineer dividend" realization, with improved profitability and valuation breakthroughs expected [1] - The CXO sector is showing signs of recovery, with a positive outlook on CDMO commercialization orders and clinical CRO investment opportunities [2] - The upstream research sector is anticipated to benefit from a downward interest rate cycle and a recovery in global new drug development demand, with recommended stocks including Haoyuan Pharmaceutical and Bid Pharma [3] - The medical device sector is expected to experience a recovery cycle, particularly for high-value consumables and medical equipment companies, with recommendations for companies like Aikang Medical and Mindray Medical [4] - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is projected to see an earnings inflection point, with a favorable outlook for the second half of 2025 [5] - The report favors leading pharmacy chains with superior management capabilities, recommending companies such as Dazhonglin and Yifeng Pharmacy [6] - The pharmaceutical distribution sector is expected to improve, with a focus on low-positioned value and innovative business opportunities [7] Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - Positive outlook on profitability improvement and valuation breakthroughs due to recognition by multinational corporations [1] CXO - Recovery in the sector with ongoing commercialization of small and large molecule CDMO orders [2] Upstream Research - Anticipated performance elasticity and new business expansion opportunities [3] Medical Devices - Significant growth potential in high-value consumables and medical equipment sectors [4] Traditional Chinese Medicine - Expected earnings growth and increased market interest due to improved fundamentals [5] Pharmacies - Favorable view on pharmacy chains with strong management and adaptability [6] Pharmaceutical Distribution - Positive trends in the sector with potential for operational improvements and value re-evaluation [7]

每日晨报 2025 年 10 月 6 日 交银国际研究 今日焦点 | 医药行业周报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 内外资加大布局服务类标的，4Q | 行业催化剂丰 评级: | 领先 | | 富，布局优质创新标的 | | | | 丁政宁 | Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com | | 行情回顾：本周恒生医疗保健指数涨 2.2%，跑输大市。其中，CXO、生 物药及中药板块表现较优于其他板块。 机构持仓回顾：9 月以来，内资通过港股通的持股比例持续增加，而外 资的持仓则从年中开始略有回落，但内外资持续加大创新药企布局的大 方向不变。本周，内外资均加仓服务类标的，包括潜在受益于降息的 CXO 企业。外资亦加仓长期潜力大、当前性价比较高的创新药标的。 投资启示：ESMO 大会将于今年 10 月中下旬举行，我们建议重点关注康 方生物、科伦博泰、荣昌生物等有重磅数据读出的公司。10 月起随着行 业催化剂增多，行情有望重启。我们继续推荐关注以下细分方向：1）创 新药：三生制药、德琪医药短期催化剂丰富、估值仍未反映核心大单品 价值；先声药业、和黄医药、传奇生物被明显低估、长期成长逻辑清 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index increased by 2.2% last week, underperforming the broader market, with the CXO, biopharmaceutical, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors showing better performance [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Domestic investors have been increasing their holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect since September, while foreign investors' holdings have slightly decreased since mid-year, although both continue to focus on innovative drug companies [1] - Both domestic and foreign investors have increased their positions in service-related stocks, particularly those that may benefit from interest rate cuts, such as CXO companies [1] Group 2: Upcoming Events - The ESMO conference is scheduled for mid to late October, and the report suggests focusing on companies like CanSino Biologics (09926), Kelun-Biotech (06990), and Rongchang Biologics (09995), which are expected to release significant data [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends attention to the following sectors: 1) Innovative drugs: Companies like 3SBio (01530) and Eucure Biopharma-B (06996) have abundant short-term catalysts and their valuations do not yet reflect the value of core products; companies like Ascletis Pharma (02096), Hutchison China MediTech (00013), and Legend Biotech are significantly undervalued with clear long-term growth logic [1] 2) CXO: Leaders in this segment, such as WuXi AppTec (02268), are expected to benefit from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions [1]

Core Insights - The report from CMB International highlights the release of the first batch of innovative pharmaceutical technology medical insurance payment incentive catalog by Zhejiang Province, which is expected to alleviate the challenges of innovative drugs entering hospitals [1] - Despite the Trump administration's announcement of a 100% tariff on imported innovative drugs, the overall impact on China's pharmaceutical industry chain is considered manageable, with a recommendation to monitor subsequent developments [1] - The upcoming ESMO conference in mid to late October is noted as a key event, with a focus on companies such as CanSino Biologics (09926), Kelun-Biotech (06990), and Rongchang Biologics (688331.SH) that are expected to release significant data [1] Industry Summary - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector has shown relatively flat performance in September, but with increasing industry catalysts such as academic conferences and favorable policy implementations in October, a market rebound is anticipated [1] - The report recommends focusing on specific segments: 1) Innovative drugs: Companies like 3SBio (01530) and Eucure Biopharma-B (06996) have rich short-term catalysts and their valuations do not yet reflect the core value of major products; companies like Ascletis Pharma (02096), Hutchison China MediTech (00013), and Legend Biotech are considered significantly undervalued with clear long-term growth logic [1] 2) CXO: Leaders in this segment, such as WuXi AppTec (02268), are expected to benefit from high downstream demand and marginal recovery in financing [1]

随着美联储开启新一轮降息周期，全球资本的"活水"正流向更多地区。 近期，多家公募举办策略会，加大对港股的配置成为了共识。业内人士人为，外部资金流入港股市场的 意愿正显著增强，以港股为代表的中国资产或将进一步被外资增持。 港股有望在降息周期中持续受益 汇丰晋信基金基金经理许廷全表示，今年以来，港股行情走强，主要受益于三大因素：第一是估值的修 复。"一些互联网大厂经过过去3年的降本增效，从去年三季报开始，盈利已经优于预期，这一预期也带 动港股估值回升。"其次是信心的修复。"今年年初DeepSeek大模型公布、春晚上的机器人表演、创新药 集体出海等，都让全球投资者有了更强的信心。"第三是全球货币政策转向。"美联储进入了新一轮降息 周期。未来美联储可能会加快降息节奏，这有望利好包括港股在内的新兴市场。" 从资金面上看，港股市场或迎来更多增量资金涌入。"港股市场近来备受公募青睐，且南向资金持续买 入，内地投资者对港股低估值资产的配置需求日益旺盛。"富国中证港股通互联网ETF基金经理田希蒙 表示，"全球资金再配置需求有望打开再定价窗口，全球资金再配置若持续验证，叠加风险偏好回暖， 港股优质特色产业优势或受益。" 从盈利端 ...

Core Viewpoint - The October market is expected to continue a structural trend of "growth-oriented with cyclical support," driven by long-term policy support, intensive industrial catalysts, and a loose liquidity environment [1][6]. Group 1: Stock Recommendations - A total of 111 stocks have been included in the "golden stock" portfolios of 13 brokerage firms for October, with notable mentions including SMIC, WuXi AppTec, Huayou Cobalt, Hikvision, and Haier Smart Home [1][3]. - The most recommended stocks, each receiving two endorsements from different brokerages, include Zhaoyi Innovation, WuXi AppTec, Luoyang Molybdenum, Ecovacs, and SMIC, among others [4][3]. - The technology sector, particularly stocks like Zhaoyi Innovation, Datong Technology, and SMIC, is favored by brokerages, indicating a strong preference for TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) stocks [4][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Historical data shows that the A-share market typically experiences a rebound after the National Day holiday, with over 70% probability of an increase in the first week post-holiday [7]. - Multiple significant events are expected to occur in October, including the Federal Reserve's meeting and the release of Q3 reports, which could inject new vitality into the market [7][8]. - The technology growth sector is anticipated to present more opportunities in October, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut boosting market sentiment [8].

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a mixed trend with resource stocks, military stocks, storage stocks, and CXO sectors showing upward movement, while small-cap stocks and AI hardware stocks are undergoing a correction [2][3] - New industry catalysts are emerging, particularly in the chip sector, driven by rising storage chip prices, which has led to a significant increase in the ChiNext index and a clear upward trend [3] - The military sector is also gaining momentum due to new catalysts, with leading companies like AVIC Shenfei reaching historical highs, as the market recognizes the shift from domestic to international demand for military performance [3] Group 2 - The upcoming third-quarter earnings season is expected to drive market sentiment, as there is a growing trend of companies showing signs of recovery in their earnings, supported by positive industrial profit data and rising prices in upstream products [4] - The resource sector and CXO sector are also experiencing strong upward trends, indicating that momentum funds are shifting focus towards companies with strong earnings capabilities as the earnings reports approach [4][5] - The active performance of third-quarter earnings leaders is likely to attract new incremental funds into the market, enhancing overall market vitality and providing a positive outlook for the A-share market post-holiday [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the collaboration between China and the US in innovation is expected to continue, with a recovery in domestic innovation and R&D demand in China [1][2] - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 74.0% since the beginning of 2025, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 37.3% [1] - The price for experimental monkeys, essential for innovative drug R&D, has risen from approximately 85,000 yuan in mid-2024 to about 90,000 yuan [1] Group 2 - The US is expected to impose tariffs on innovative drugs, but the impact on the CXO sector is anticipated to be limited [2] - Trump's announcement on September 25 states that unless pharmaceutical companies are building factories in the US, patented drugs will face a 100% tariff starting October 1 [2] - The continuous upward momentum for innovative drugs is expected to primarily come from overseas partners pushing clinical developments for authorized pipelines [2]

Core Viewpoint - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has increased by 74.0% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 37.3% [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The recovery in capital market financing and the increase in overseas trading scale for innovative drugs have led to a rebound in domestic innovative drug research and development demand [1] - The CXO industry is expected to see performance recovery in the second half of the year due to the impact of U.S. interest rate cuts [1] Group 2: Regulatory Impact - The anticipated increase in tariffs on innovative drugs by the U.S. is expected to have a limited impact on the CXO sector [1] - Many multinational pharmaceutical companies already have plans to establish factories in the U.S., which may mitigate potential negative effects [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The ongoing upward momentum for innovative drugs is expected to primarily come from overseas partners driving clinical progress for authorized pipelines [1] - There is optimism regarding valuation recovery opportunities in consumer healthcare, with recommendations to buy stocks in companies such as 3SBio, Junshi Biosciences, WuXi AppTec, Genscript Biotech, China National Pharmaceutical Group, and Innovent Biologics [1]

小摩预期这次药品关税政策对药明康德等中国CDMO企业不会构成直接影响，因客户通常负责支付关 税，而且药明康德正在扩充其美国产能，以满足客户对本地化生产的需求。 小摩日前参与药明康德的2025年投资者日，适逢美国总统特朗普宣布计划自10月1日起对进口品牌药及 专利药征收100%关税，除非相关药厂已在美国动工兴建生产设施。小摩预期这次药品关税政策对药明 康德等中国CDMO企业不会构成直接影响，因客户通常负责支付关税，而且药明康德正在扩充其美国产 能，以满足客户对本地化生产的需求。追加内容 摩根大通发布研报称，继续列药明康德(02359)为中国CXO行业的首选股，指出该公司是中国收入规模 最大的合同研究开发与生产组织，看好其业务基本面，认为小分子CRDMO领域竞争相对温和，同时药 明TIDES业务增长动力持续强劲，维持"增持"评级，目标价138港元。 本文作者可以追加内容哦 ! ...