证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0721-0725） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年7月25日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 目录 风险提示 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年7月26日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 16.34 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010-01 2011-0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shifting perception of the U.S. market as a safe haven for global investors, highlighting the potential risks and changes in market dynamics due to recent U.S. trade policies and economic conditions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Observations on Market Dynamics - Observation 1: The "American exceptionalism" in capital markets is breaking down, as evidenced by the U.S. stock market's negative response to trade tensions, contrasting with the positive reactions of Asian and European markets [6][10][12]. - Observation 2: The Dow Jones Industrial Average, historically the most stable index, has become the most volatile due to its heavy reliance on manufacturing and consumer sectors, which are adversely affected by trade policies [16][21][22]. - Observation 3: The U.S. stock market increasingly reflects the performance of global companies and a few tech giants, rather than the U.S. economy itself, as many companies derive significant revenue from international markets [23][25][31]. Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - Observation 4: International investors can no longer rely on the U.S. dollar's appreciation as a source of profit, as the dollar index has weakened and the U.S. economy faces challenges that may hinder its competitiveness [32][34][35]. - Observation 5: The outflow of capital from U.S. assets is evident, with significant withdrawals from long-term bond funds and a shift towards European debt, indicating a loss of confidence in U.S. markets [35][36].

Group 1 - The core idea of the news is that Meituan's "Safe Beauty" initiative is significantly enhancing consumer trust in the medical beauty industry through AIoT smart verification hardware and services, leading to increased user satisfaction and repeat purchase intentions [1][2] - By June 2025, Meituan's "Safe Beauty" has provided over 7 million verification services and installed more than 4,000 self-developed AIoT smart verification devices for over 2,000 medical beauty institutions [1] - Over 88.6% of users who experienced the "Safe Beauty" verification process expressed a desire to continue choosing institutions with similar verification services on the platform [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, more than 15 upstream brands joined the "Safe Beauty 100,000 Verification Club," with a total of over 100,000 verifications conducted [2] - The overall brand scale using "Safe Beauty" smart verification devices increased by 13.1% compared to 2024 [2] - There is a notable increase in user attention towards the qualifications and professional backgrounds of medical staff [2]

Group 1 - The core issue is a deeper urban development crisis, with real estate market downturn being just the tip of the iceberg, revealing five severe socio-economic problems intertwined together [1] Group 2 - Birth rate has plummeted to 8.17 million in 2024, the lowest since 1978, with a total fertility rate of 1.09, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1, indicating a future labor supply shortage [3] - A survey shows that 42.7% of urban youth aged 25-35 do not plan to have children, up nearly 15 percentage points since 2020, driven by concerns over affordability, time, and uncertain prospects [4] - The aging population is increasing, with those aged 65 and above reaching 20.3% in 2024, surpassing the recognized threshold for an aging society, leading to a shrinking young consumer base [4] Group 3 - The urban employment market is struggling, with the urban survey unemployment rate reaching 5.7% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous year [4] - The unemployment rate for young adults aged 25-39 has risen to 7.3%, the highest in five years, affecting overall urban consumption capacity [4] - New industries, including internet and AI, are also experiencing layoffs, with a 23.7% year-on-year increase in layoffs reported by the end of 2024 [4] Group 4 - The number of individuals with poor credit records has surged to 87 million in early 2025, an increase of 12 million from 2023, severely impacting overall consumer spending [6] - Many individuals are struggling with debt, leading to a cycle of financial distress that hampers economic recovery [6] Group 5 - The entrepreneurial environment is deteriorating, with new business registrations declining by 17.3% year-on-year in 2024, and the three-year survival rate for new businesses dropping to 31.8% [8] - Challenges such as financing difficulties and high customer acquisition costs are stifling innovation and economic vitality [8] Group 6 - Addressing these intertwined challenges requires comprehensive and systematic solutions beyond just stimulating the real estate market, including enhanced vocational training, flexible credit policies, and improved entrepreneurial support [8][9] - Recent data shows a 27.3% increase in participants in government-subsidized vocational training, indicating initial positive effects [9] - Financial institutions are exploring flexible credit policies, with some banks helping over 300,000 households navigate financial difficulties [9]

Core Viewpoint - The corruption case involving the former CEO of Ele.me highlights significant failures in supply chain management and internal controls, leading to a systemic issue of bribery and misconduct within the company [1][3][4]. Group 1: Corruption Case Details - The Shanghai police reported the arrest of seven suspects in a bribery case involving over 40 million yuan, with the former CEO of Ele.me, Han Liu, being a key figure [1]. - Han Liu and others exploited their authority in logistics and supplier management to gain improper benefits for suppliers, creating a complete chain of interest transfer [2]. - The corruption persisted for nearly two years before being discovered internally in early 2025, when Ele.me reported the findings to the police [4]. Group 2: Systemic Issues and Governance - The concentration of power in the logistics operations of Ele.me, particularly in supplier selection and resource allocation, lacked transparency and effective checks and balances [3]. - The absence of a robust internal monitoring structure allowed suppliers to engage in bribery to secure their positions and gain preferential treatment [3][5]. - The case raises concerns about the effectiveness of Ele.me's anti-corruption systems and the governance structures in place, indicating a need for improvement in compliance and transparency [5][6]. Group 3: Implications for ESG and Corporate Culture - The incident has tarnished the reputation of Alibaba's ESG efforts, which had previously been considered advanced in the industry [6][7]. - Internal corruption undermines employee trust in the company's integrity and can lead to decreased morale and talent attrition, as well as damaging the perception of fairness among suppliers [9]. - The case serves as a warning for internet platform companies regarding the importance of integrating governance responsibilities into operational risk management, particularly in supplier management and decision-making processes [14][15].

美股夏季反弹持续推高估值至纪录水平，引发分析师对市场泡沫化的警告。 即使在关税威胁下，近日市场的泡沫迹象仍在增多。标普500指数本月屡创历史新高，高估值科技股飙 升至新高，英伟达市值突破4万亿美元，比特币价格站上12万美元，而2021年的"Meme股票"热潮重新浮 现。 太平洋资管的首席投资官Dan Ivascyn表示，当前市场开始显现与90年代末、2000年代初互联网泡沫的 早期相似之处，"彩票心态"的危险格局正在形成。 华尔街见闻此前提及，包括高盛、德银、美银在内的华尔街大行已经纷纷拉响警报，认为当前市场投机 行为激增、杠杆水平飙升，泡沫风险正在累积。 接下来会发生什么？高盛的研究指出，市场狂热时期可能会在一段时间内变得更加极端。在过去35年的 数据中，每当投机性交易急剧上升之后，标普500指数在接下来的3个月、6个月、12个月里，往往会出 现高于平均水平的回报，但在此之后，市场通常会出现回落或下跌。 巴克莱的"股市狂欢"指标显示出更为严峻的信号。这一综合衍生品流向、波动率和市场情绪的复合指标 已飙升至正常水平的两倍，进入历史上与资产泡沫相关的区域。 该行美股衍生品策略主管Stefano Pascale表 ...

【导读】标普500指数与纳斯达克指数均创盘中与收盘历史新高！加州监管机构：叫停！ 美东时间7月25日周五，受美国与欧盟将达成贸易协定的影响，美股收高，标普500指数与纳斯达克指数均创盘中与收盘历史新高。 标普500指数本周连续第五次刷新收盘纪录 周五收盘，道指上涨208.01点，涨幅为0.47%，报收于44901.92点；纳指上涨50.36点，涨幅为0.24%，报收于21108.32点；标普500指数上涨25.29点，涨幅 为0.40%，报收于6388.64点。 本周，标普500指数累计上涨大约1.5%，道指累涨约1.2%，纳指累涨约0.9%。标普500指数本周连续第五次刷新收盘纪录，2025年累计第13次创新高。纳 指周三突破21000点大关，本周四次创收盘历史新高。 据央视新闻报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与美国总统特朗普举行电话会谈，围绕当前欧美贸易关系交换意见。据冯德莱恩发布的消息，双方在通话中达 成一致，计划于本周日在苏格兰举行面对面会谈，重点讨论欧美之间的贸易合作及相关争议问题。此次即将举行的会晤被视为欧美关税谈判的重要环节。 当天早些时候，特朗普对外表示，美国与欧盟或将就关税谈判达成协议。 Fac ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached record closing highs, with the S&P 500 up 1.5% for the week and achieving a "perfect week" for the first time since November 2021 [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.47% to close at 44,901.92 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at 6,388.64 points and 21,108.32 points, respectively [1] Company Performance - Microsoft shares increased by 0.55%, reaching a historic closing high of $513.71, while Intel's stock fell by 8.5% to $24.20 due to disappointing Q2 earnings [2] - Intel reported Q2 revenue of $12.9 billion, which was flat year-over-year but exceeded market expectations of $11.92 billion; however, it posted a net loss of $400 million compared to a profit of $100 million in the same period last year [2] - Other tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Nvidia down 0.14% and AMD up 2.68% [2] Economic Outlook - Market focus is shifting to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, with expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged; a 60% probability of a rate cut in September is being priced in [3] - Over 150 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings next week, with analysts predicting a 7.7% year-over-year growth in overall earnings for the index, driven primarily by the technology sector [3] Commodity Market - International oil prices fell, with WTI crude oil futures down 1.32% to $65.16 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.02% to $67.66 per barrel [3]

资管公司Research Affiliates的创始人兼主席Rob Arnott表示，整体来看，标普指数的市销率、市现率、 市净率、市息率都接近历史高位。他将投资主导该指数的小部分科技股比作"在蒸汽压路机前捡钱"。 01 特朗普称与欧盟达协议可能五成 美东时间周五，受美国与欧盟可能很快达成贸易协议的乐观情绪提振，标普500指数和纳指又创下了历 史新高。 大型科技股涨跌不一，特斯拉涨3.52%，微软涨0.55%，谷歌A涨0.53%，苹果涨0.06%，英伟达跌 0.14%，Meta跌0.30%，亚马逊跌0.34%。 热门中概股多数下跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.89%，蔚来涨超1%，哔哩哔哩跌超2%，京东、阿 里巴巴跌幅不足1%。 针对不断新高的指数，华尔街频发警告，投机性交易的上升可能增加市场回调的风险。高盛分析师表 示，他们的投机交易指标在过去几个月大幅上升。 据央视新闻周五报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩与美国总统特朗普举行电话会谈，围绕当前欧美贸易关 系交换意见。据冯德莱恩发布的消息，双方在通话中达成一致，计划于本周日在苏格兰举行面对面会 谈，重点讨论欧美之间的贸易合作及相关争议问题。 此次即将举行的会晤被 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国总统特朗普于周五表示，美国可能不会与加拿大达成新的贸易协议，并威胁最 快将在一周内对加拿大加征更多或更高的关税。 "我们和加拿大的谈判一直进展不顺，"特朗普在白宫外对媒体表示，"我认为，加拿大的情况可能不会 是谈判，而是直接加征关税。"随后他启程前往苏格兰。这是特朗普近两周来首次公开谈及与加拿大的 贸易谈判进展。 据悉，特朗普已于7月10日向加拿大总理卡尼发出一封正式信函，威胁若在8月1日前无法达成协议，将 对加拿大商品征收35%的关税。目前这类商品大多已处于25%的加税状态，此举将使税率大幅提升。特 朗普引用紧急权力，并以"芬太尼贩运对国家安全构成威胁"为由推动此措施。大多数加拿大商品仍可豁 免于此关税前提是其符合《美加墨协定》中有关北美原产规则的规定。 此外，加拿大的钢铁和铝产品目前也正承受高达50%的美国关税，而加拿大出口至美国的能源及钾肥则 被征收10%的关税。 当被记者问及在下周五之前会发生什么时，特朗普表示："8月1日将至，届时我们的贸易协议大部分会 完成，甚至可能全部达成。"他提到与澳大利亚、欧盟和中国的谈判取得进展，但对加拿大却直言批 评："我们跟加拿大没有协议，我们也 ...