1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock index shows strong resilience, and it is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility. It is advisable to mainly observe the market due to the ongoing repricing adjustment of A - shares after the third - quarter reports, with limited downside risks and shrinking trading volume [4]. - For treasury bonds, the long - term bond is affected by the expected implementation of the new regulations on bond fund redemptions, and the curve slightly steepens. A range - bound operation is recommended for the unilateral strategy, and short - position investors can accelerate the position - shifting pace. Attention should be paid to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [6]. - For precious metals, the medium - to - long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue. Gold is currently oscillating in the range of $4050 - 4150, and silver is fluctuating in the range of $50 - 52.5. Short - term investors can try to go long on silver if the price rises [10]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to decline in the short term [11]. - For base metals, the prices of most metals are expected to maintain an oscillating pattern, with different influencing factors and price ranges for each metal [12][15][18][20][23][26][30][33][37][41][43]. - For black metals, steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, iron ore is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend, and coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate with a downward trend [48][50][53][57]. - For agricultural products, the domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the cost side lacks substantial positive factors [58]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, A - share major indices opened higher and the market recovered. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.87% to 3870.02 points. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts was repaired [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the leaders of China and the US had a phone call, and the situation of Sino - US relations was discussed. Overseas, the US was making progress in promoting the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3][4]. - **Funding**: On November 25, the A - share market trading volume increased slightly compared to the previous day. The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The domestic stock index is resilient. It is recommended to wait for stabilization with reduced volatility and mainly observe the market [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures mostly closed down. The 30 - year and 10 - year main contracts declined, while the 2 - year main contract rose slightly [5]. - **Funding**: The central bank conducted 3021 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1 trillion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations, with a net MLF injection of 100 billion yuan in November [5][6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The bond market is in a range - bound stage. A range - bound operation is recommended for the unilateral strategy, and short - position investors can accelerate the position - shifting pace. Attention should be paid to the cash - and - carry strategy for the 2603 contract [6]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Review**: US economic data showed divergence. Retail sales growth slowed down, PPI inflation rose, and private - sector employment decreased. The Fed official supported interest - rate cuts, and the market was cautious, with precious metals oscillating [7][8][9]. - **Outlook**: The long - term bull market of precious metals is expected to continue. Gold is oscillating in the range of $4050 - 4150, and silver is fluctuating in the range of $50 - 52.5. Short - term investors can try to go long on silver if the price rises [10]. - **Funding**: The gold ETF changed little, but the silver ETF had a large - scale inflow of over 250 tons [10]. Financial Derivatives - Shipping Index (European Line) - **Shipping Index**: As of November 24, the SCFIS European line index rose 20.7% month - on - month, while the US West route index fell 10.5% month - on - month. As of November 21, the SCFI composite index fell 4% month - on - month [11]. - **Fundamentals**: As of November 20, the global container shipping capacity increased by 7.17% year - on - year. The eurozone's October composite PMI was 52.2, and the US October manufacturing PMI was 48.7 [11]. - **Logic**: The futures market oscillated, and the spot market was weak. The main 02 contract fell 7.78% [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to decline in the short term [11]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: As of November 25, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper and SMM Guangdong electrolytic copper increased, while the average premium decreased. Downstream demand returned to the rigid - demand procurement stage [12]. - **Macro**: Ukraine has basically agreed to the peace agreement proposed by the US, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December has returned to 80% [12]. - **Supply**: The spot TC of copper concentrate is at a low level. In October, the output of electrolytic copper decreased month - on - month, and it is expected to decline slightly in November [12][13]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod increased, and the downstream demand showed strong resilience [13]. - **Inventory**: LME and COMEX copper inventories increased, while the domestic social inventory decreased [14]. - **Logic**: The probability of a December interest - rate cut has increased, and copper prices slightly rose and then fell. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of copper prices [15]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 85500 - 87500 yuan/ton [15]. Alumina - **Spot**: On November 25, the spot prices of alumina in various regions remained unchanged. The supply pattern is gradually loosening, and the spot price is under pressure [15]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year. It is expected that the supply will remain in surplus in November, and high - cost enterprises may reduce production [16]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory and factory inventory decreased, while the electrolytic aluminum factory inventory increased. The total registered warehouse receipts decreased [16]. - **Logic**: The market oscillated at a low level, and the supply showed signs of contraction. The overall inventory accumulation rate slowed down, and the market may bottom out and oscillate [17]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On November 25, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum increased, and the premium decreased. Market activity and actual transactions increased after the price decline [18]. - **Supply**: In October 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased year - on - year and month - on - month. It is expected that the daily output of aluminum ingots may slightly decline in November [18]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rates of aluminum processing products were divided. High prices restricted downstream demand [18]. - **Inventory**: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory and LME inventory decreased [19]. - **Logic**: The market showed a high - level position - reduction and correction trend, with a combination of positive and negative factors in the macro and fundamental aspects. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [19]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 21100 - 21700 yuan/ton. If the position continues to be reduced, there may be further downward space in the short term [19]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On November 25, the average prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 in various regions remained unchanged [20]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rate decreased. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline slightly in November due to the shortage of scrap aluminum [20]. - **Demand**: The traditional automobile consumption season is in progress, but the demand transmission is not smooth, and high prices suppress downstream procurement [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory and registered warehouse receipts increased [21]. - **Logic**: The market showed a high - level correction trend. The cost side was strongly supported, and the supply was restricted by raw materials. The demand was affected by high prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 20300 - 20900 yuan/ton. An arbitrage strategy of going long on AD02 and short on AL02 can be considered when the spread is above 650 [22]. Zinc - **Spot**: On November 25, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased. The spot purchase was still based on demand, and the transaction was average [23]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of domestic and imported zinc concentrates decreased, and the profit of smelters was compressed. It is expected that the output of refined zinc will decline in November [24]. - **Demand**: The spot premium increased. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries were basically stable, and the downstream purchased on dips. The export space was opened, which may boost the domestic zinc price [25]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased, and the LME inventory increased [25]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals changed little, and the zinc price oscillated. The supply pressure was relieved, and the demand improved structurally. It is expected to continue to oscillate [26]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 22200 - 22800 yuan/ton [26]. Tin - **Spot**: On November 25, the price of SMM 1 tin increased, and the premium remained unchanged. The market transaction was light [26]. - **Supply**: In October, the import volume of tin ore and tin ingot showed different trends. It is expected that the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar will increase in November, and the import volume of tin ingot will remain at a low level [27][28]. - **Demand and Inventory**: In October, the operating rate of solder decreased. The inventory of LME and the social inventory increased [29]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand in South China is relatively stable. It is recommended to maintain a long - position on tin due to strong fundamentals [30]. - **Operation Suggestion**: A strategy of buying on dips is recommended [30]. Nickel - **Spot**: As of November 25, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel increased. The supply of refined nickel decreased, and it was difficult to find discounted spot goods [30]. - **Supply**: In the capacity expansion cycle, the output of refined nickel is expected to decrease month - on - month but remains at a high level [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating is stable, the demand for alloys is good, the demand for stainless steel is average, and the demand for nickel sulfate has short - term support [31]. - **Inventory**: The domestic and overseas inventories are at a high level, and the bonded - area inventory is stable [31]. - **Logic**: The market oscillated and recovered. The upstream production reduction and low valuation drove the market. The macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals are weak. It is expected to oscillate and recover [32][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to oscillate between 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: As of November 25, the prices of Wuxi Hongwang and Foshan Hongwang 304 cold - rolled stainless steel were stable or increased, and the basis decreased [33]. - **Raw Materials**: The nickel ore market is stable, the price of nickel iron is under pressure, and the cost support of chromium iron is weakening [34]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of stainless steel increased. In November, the production is expected to decrease slightly. The supply pressure is still high [35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the warehouse receipts decreased [35]. - **Logic**: The market slightly rose, and the spot market purchase price was stable. The macro situation is temporarily stable, the raw material cost support is weakening, and the supply pressure remains. It is expected to oscillate [36]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract is expected to operate between 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton [37]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: As of November 25, the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The trade volume improved but was still average [37]. - **Supply**: In October, the output of lithium carbonate increased. The supply is expected to increase, mainly driven by the increase in lithium extraction from spodumene [37]. - **Demand**: The demand is optimistic. The production schedules of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials are expected to increase month - on - month [38][39]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased, and the inventory of smelters and downstream decreased, while the inventory of other links increased [39]. - **Logic**: The market was strong. The industry is optimistic about next year, and the market sentiment is bullish. The fundamentals remain strong, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [40]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to mainly observe the market [41]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price**: On November 25, the spot prices of polysilicon remained unchanged [41]. - **Supply**: In November, the domestic output of polysilicon is expected to decrease to about 120,000 tons. It is expected to increase to about 123,000 tons in December [41]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is expected to decline month - on - month, and each link has an expectation of inventory accumulation [42]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased by 4000 tons to 271,000 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased [42]. - **Logic**: The spot price is stable, the futures price oscillated and rose, and the backwardation structure deepened. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [43]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000 yuan/ton [43]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price**: On November 25, the spot prices of industrial silicon in various regions remained unchanged [43]. - **Supply**: In November, the output of industrial silicon is expected to decrease to about 400,000 tons, mainly due to the production reduction in Southwest China [44]. - **Demand**: The demand is not optimistic. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon is expected to decrease, while the demand for aluminum alloy is good [44]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased, while the factory inventory and social inventory increased slightly [44]. - **Logic**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and there is still pressure on inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [45]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to oscillate between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [45]. Commodity Futures - Ferrous Metals Steel - **Spot**: The futures market strengthened, and the spot price followed. The basis of rebar weakened, and the basis of hot - rolled coil remained stable [45]. - **Cost and Profit**: The prices of coking coal and coke decreased, and the price of iron ore was relatively stable. The profit of steel mills was slightly repaired but is expected to remain at a low level [46]. - **Supply**: From January to October, the output of iron elements increased year - on - year. Recently, the molten iron output decreased, and the output of five major steel products increased [46]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand is weak, and the export is at a high level. The apparent demand in November increased compared to October [46]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased rapidly, and the inventory reduction is expected to continue [47]. - **View**: It is expected that the steel price will oscillate within a range. The rebar is expected to oscillate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil is expected to oscillate between 3250 - 3400 yuan/ton [48]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: As of November 25, the prices of mainstream iron ore

Core Viewpoint - Panzhihua, as the only city-level common prosperity pilot zone in China, is receiving significant policy support to advance its high-quality development and explore experiences for achieving common prosperity in Sichuan [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Framework - The draft decision presented at the Sichuan Provincial People's Congress aims to narrow the "three major gaps" (regional, urban-rural, and income disparities) as the main focus [2]. - The approach includes promoting "four transformations" (new industrialization, new urbanization, agricultural modernization, and green digital transformation) as pathways for development [2][3]. - The construction of the common prosperity pilot zone will be integrated into provincial planning, establishing a collaborative mechanism where the province coordinates and the city takes overall responsibility [2]. Group 2: Legal and Institutional Support - A "1+N" legal supply model is being formed, combining decisions from the provincial legislature with local legislative initiatives to provide effective legal support for reform exploration [2][3]. - The framework encourages bold exploration within the legal context, clarifying mechanisms for error tolerance and liability exemption to empower reform and innovation [2][3]. Group 3: Key Areas of Focus - The draft decision outlines specific tasks and pilot directions in critical areas such as new industrialization, rural common prosperity, and equalization of basic public services [3]. - It emphasizes the need for provincial government support in resource supply, differentiated industrial policies, and core technology breakthroughs to enhance the strategic resource innovation and development pilot zone [3]. Group 4: Development Initiatives - The initiatives aim to strengthen Panzhihua's development momentum and accelerate the "four transformations," laying a solid industrial foundation for the common prosperity pilot zone [5]. - Key reforms, including the urbanization of agricultural migrants and mechanisms for the transfer of rights and equal citizen rights, are expected to be pioneered in Panzhihua [5].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound on November 25, with all three major indices closing in the green [1] - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) recorded a trading volume exceeding 70 million yuan, with leading stocks including Jinzi Ham, Angel Yeast, and Bailong Chuangyuan showing significant gains [1] - The Tianhong Agriculture ETF (512620) was actively traded, achieving a turnover rate of 5.27% and a trading volume over 20 million yuan, with top-performing stocks including Biological Shares, Roniu Mountain, and Cangge Mining [1] Group 2 - The Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) tracks the CSI Food and Beverage Index, focusing on leading high-end and mid-range liquor stocks, as well as key players in beverages, dairy, and condiments, with top ten weighted stocks including "Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe" [1] - As of November 24, the Tianhong Food and Beverage ETF (159736) had a scale of 5.627 billion yuan, ranking first among food and beverage ETFs in Shenzhen [1] - The Tianhong Agriculture ETF (512620) closely follows the CSI Agriculture Index, covering sectors such as breeding and agricultural chemicals, with leading stocks including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Haida Group [1] Group 3 - The Huashu Network announced a public auction for 6,500 tons of domestic frozen pork on November 20, 2025 [2] - Structural opportunities in the food and beverage industry are expected to continue, with new consumption trends and a recovery in traditional consumption [2] - According to Citic Securities, the demand for most consumer goods has experienced a decline over the past two years, but inventory levels are stabilizing, and demand is expected to improve, particularly in dairy and frozen food sectors [2]

Economic Development - Jiang'an County's GDP surpassed 20 billion yuan in 2021 and is projected to reach 23.183 billion yuan in 2024, ranking first among counties in Yibin City [4][5] - The county aims to become a leader in county-level economic development, focusing on a new pattern of synchronized urban-rural development [5] Industrial Growth - Jiang'an Economic Development Zone has successfully established itself as a provincial-level economic and chemical park, becoming a core area for the development of a 100 billion yuan power battery industry cluster [6] - The industrial output value of the zone reached 18.938 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for nearly one-quarter of the county's GDP, with industrial tax revenue exceeding 1.27 billion yuan, representing over 60% of the county's total tax revenue [6] Agricultural Modernization - The county has built a 5,500-acre seed industry demonstration park and facilitated the establishment of 30,000 acres of seed production bases, leading to a total agricultural output value exceeding 6.5 billion yuan in 2024 [7][8] - Jiang'an County has established the largest eel farming base in the province and created several modern agricultural parks, enhancing its agricultural profile [8] Service Sector Enhancement - The county's retail sales of consumer goods are expected to reach 10.944 billion yuan in 2024, with the tertiary industry contributing 12.166 billion yuan, accounting for 52.5% of GDP [9] - New business models, such as cross-border e-commerce, have emerged, with a local company securing over 4 million yuan in high-end custom orders [9] Future Outlook - Jiang'an County plans to strengthen its industrial base and optimize its industrial layout, focusing on energy and chemical industries while promoting traditional industry upgrades [10][11] - The county aims to enhance agricultural quality and promote rural revitalization, as well as deepen the integration of culture and tourism to build a modern service industry system [11]

□四川日报全媒体记者 王眉灵数读宜宾 "十四五" 地区生产总值 由2020年的2863.5亿元 增长到2024年的4005.8亿元 跨越两个千亿级台阶 稳居全省第三 全国GDP百强城市 排名上升至87位 人均地区生产总值达86714元 高于全省平均水平 产业升级 工业 2024年全部工业增加值1607.9亿元 是"十三五"末的1.5倍 是"十三五"末的1.5倍 农业 酿酒专用粮、茶园、蚕桑、油樟面积居全省第一 打造宜宾早虾、长宁竹荪、筠连红茶等 连续4年稳居全省第二 在全省的占比由7.6%提升至9% 连续入选全国先进制造业百强市 服务业 打造万象宜宾天地、冠英古街、 长江音悦街等消费新场景 2024年服务业增加值1696.3亿元 11个全国名特优新农产品 2024年农林牧渔总产值683.3亿元 是"十三五"末的1.2倍 城乡融合 以片区化思路 打造31个城乡融合发展试验区 建成首批14个和美乡村生活聚居点 地区生产总值超200亿元的县（区） 由2020年的2个 增加至2024年的9个 民生改善 实现"县县通高速" 成宜高铁、渝昆高铁渝宜段通车运营 全面融入成渝"1小时经济圈" 常态化开行 宜宾至重庆、宜昌、武 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the fourth quarter ended September 30, 2025, revenue was $802,000 compared to $935,000 in the prior year quarter, reflecting the conclusion of citrus operations [15] - The net loss attributable to Alico common stockholders was $8.5 million, or $1.11 per diluted share, an improvement from a net loss of $18.1 million, or $2.38 per diluted share in the prior year quarter [15] - For the full fiscal year, revenue was $44.1 million compared to $46.6 million in Fiscal 2024, with a net loss of $147.3 million, or $19.29 per diluted share, primarily due to non-cash charges related to the strategic transformation [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Fiscal 2025 was $22.5 million, exceeding the $20 million guidance target, indicating operational strength in the transformed business model [16] - Land sales generated $23.8 million from 2,796 acres sold during Fiscal 2025, surpassing the $20 million target [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended Fiscal Year 2025 with $38.1 million in cash and cash equivalents, a significant increase from $3.2 million at the end of Fiscal 2024 [16] - Net debt decreased to $47.4 million from $89 million, representing a $41.6 million improvement year-over-year [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Alico has transitioned from a traditional citrus producer to a diversified land company, focusing on sustainable long-term value creation and conservation [4] - The establishment of the Corkscrew Grove Stewardship District is a significant regulatory milestone that supports the company's development strategy [7] - The company aims to optimize agricultural operations, advance residential and commercial development projects, and maintain financial flexibility for long-term strategy execution [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the successful completion of the final major citrus harvest and the elimination of volatility associated with citrus agriculture [18] - The company believes it has a compelling path forward with multiple catalysts for value creation, including advancing development projects and optimizing agricultural leasing [18][19] Other Important Information - Alico has a market capitalization of approximately $240 million, while the net present value (NPV) analysis of its land portfolio is estimated between $650 million and $750 million, indicating a significant valuation disconnect [19] - The company has a history of returning capital to shareholders, having returned over $190 million through dividends, share repurchases, and debt reduction since 2015 [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected cadence of the land sales in the next 12 months? - Management has not provided guidance on additional land sales for fiscal year 2026 [22][23]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the fourth quarter ended September 30, 2025, revenue was $802,000 compared to $935,000 in the prior year quarter, reflecting the conclusion of citrus operations [15] - The net loss attributable to Alico common stockholders was $8.5 million, or $1.11 per diluted share, an improvement from a net loss of $18.1 million, or $2.38 per diluted share in the prior year quarter [15] - For the full fiscal year, revenue was $44.1 million compared to $46.6 million in Fiscal 2024, with a net loss of $147.3 million primarily due to non-cash charges related to the strategic transformation [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Adjusted EBITDA for Fiscal 2025 was $22.5 million, exceeding the $20 million guidance target, indicating operational strength in the transformed business model [16] - Land sales generated $23.8 million from 2,796 acres sold during Fiscal 2025, surpassing the $20 million target [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company ended Fiscal Year 2025 with $38.1 million in cash and cash equivalents, a significant increase from $3.2 million at the end of Fiscal 2024 [16] - Net debt decreased to $47.4 million from $89 million, representing a $41.6 million improvement year-over-year [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Alico has transitioned from a traditional citrus producer to a diversified land company, focusing on sustainable long-term value creation and conservation [4] - The establishment of the Corkscrew Grove Stewardship District is a significant regulatory milestone that supports the company's development strategy [6] - The company aims to optimize agricultural operations while advancing residential and commercial development projects [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management emphasized the elimination of citrus agricultural volatility and the unlocking of value in the approximately 49,000-acre Florida portfolio [18] - The company believes it is well-capitalized and strategically focused, with multiple catalysts for value creation in the coming years [19] Other Important Information - Alico has a history of returning capital to shareholders, having returned more than $190 million through dividends, share repurchases, and debt reduction since 2015 [10] - The company's NPV analysis values its land portfolio between $650 million and $750 million, while its current market capitalization is approximately $240 million [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the expected cadence of the land sales in the next 12 months? - Management has not provided guidance on additional land sales for fiscal year 2026 [22]

二、产业种植实况转载： 在马托格罗索州使用大型48行播种机播种。 =====四天前的伊利诺伊州迪凯特农场与今天的马托格罗索州塔普拉天然森林保护区的对比视频 =====巴西南里奥格兰德州大豆种植园，海拔高度在 100 至 500 米之间，被平缓的河谷分隔开。 阿根廷科尔多瓦省大豆已经发芽。 来源：市场资讯 （来源：南京玛合雅） 一、产业资讯：据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至11月22日，巴西大豆播种率为 78%，上周为69%，去年同期为83.3%，五年均值为75.8%。 据世界农业天气网11月24日报告显示，主产区马托格罗索地区降雨量增加至正常值60%以上；巴西东南 部降雨量最大，是正常值110%以上，南部地区降雨量最小，南里奥格兰德州为正常值60%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gaole Co., Ltd. is undergoing a potential change in control as its largest shareholder, Huadong Group, is planning to transfer its shares or delegate voting rights, leading to a suspension of trading from November 25 for up to two trading days [1][3]. Company Overview - Gaole Co., Ltd. was established in October 1989 and is headquartered in Puning, Guangdong. It was one of the first toy companies to be listed in China, successfully going public on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2010 [6]. - The company primarily operates in two business segments: toys and internet education. Its toy business includes the "GOLDLOK" brand and a complete industrial system covering R&D, design, mold manufacturing, production, and sales [5][6]. Recent Developments - On November 24, prior to the suspension announcement, Gaole's stock price surged to 4.81 yuan per share, marking a 10.07% increase, with a market capitalization of 4.556 billion yuan and a trading volume of 1.26 billion yuan [3]. - Huadong Group, which acquired control of Gaole three years ago, is now considering exiting this investment, indicating a potential shift in strategic focus [4][9]. Financial Performance - Gaole has faced continuous financial challenges, reporting losses for nearly seven consecutive years. The net losses for 2022, 2023, and 2024 are projected at 83.63 million yuan, 61.98 million yuan, and 57.30 million yuan, respectively [9]. - For the first three quarters of the current year, Gaole reported a revenue of 226 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.06%, but still incurred a net loss of 11.67 million yuan [9]. Shareholder Dynamics - The second-largest shareholder, Yang Guangcheng, holds a 6.15% stake and is also the company's vice general manager [5]. - The ownership structure has become more fragmented, with recent share acquisitions by other investors, adding uncertainty to the control change process [14]. Strategic Challenges - The initial strategic intent of Huadong Group to leverage Gaole's toy business for diversification into solid-state battery projects has not materialized effectively, leading to a reassessment of the investment [9][12]. - The lack of progress in the battery project and ongoing operational difficulties in Gaole's core business have prompted Huadong Group to consider exiting the investment [9][12].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].