Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The bearish sentiment towards urea has improved, and the price has stopped falling and stabilized after reaching the cost line. However, as autumn fertilizers are gradually ending, agricultural demand support is expected to be short - lived. Future urea demand will mainly be for reserve purchases, with high pressure on inventory reduction. The market will generally remain sluggish, and the price will stop falling and stabilize. Attention should be paid to the impact of major domestic conferences on the market and any changes in exports [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - Due to the delay in the farming season, downstream buyers are not active, and upstream factories' quotes are mainly weakly stable, resulting in a stalemate between upstream and downstream. Since the weekend, urea prices have been moderately declining. The autumn fertilizer market is in progress but lacks vitality [3]. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market showed mixed trends, with an overall relatively strong performance. As of October 20, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,600 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the settlement price on October 13. Last week's weekly trading volume was 14.278 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.7114 million tons; the open interest was 8.1525 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5074 million tons. The bearish sentiment in the market has weakened, and the market has stopped falling and stabilized, but there is no strong driving force for a significant rebound. The basis has strengthened. As of October 20, the basis of the 01 contract was - 50 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 40 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 2 yuan/ton. On October 20, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,238, a week - on - week decrease of 679 [5][8]. Urea Supply - Last week, urea weekly production decreased. From October 9 - 15, urea weekly production was 1.3205 million tons, a decrease of 69,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%, with an average daily production of 188,600 tons. Coal - based weekly production was 1.1097 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.37%; gas - based weekly production was 280,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.60%. Small - particle weekly production was 112,180 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.28%; large - particle weekly production was 268,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3%. Next week, production is expected to continue to decline. On October 20, the national daily urea production was 195,000 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.39%. Coal prices have risen, and the price of domestic liquefied natural gas has fallen. As of October 20, the benchmark price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 3,662 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. The price center of synthetic ammonia has moved down, and the methanol spot price has risen [11][13][15]. Urea Demand - Last week, the price of compound fertilizers remained flat compared to the previous week. As of October 20, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizers was 2,900 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Due to the delay in autumn harvest and sowing, downstream buyers are cautious, mostly replenishing at low prices without concentrated purchases. Compound fertilizer factories have reduced their operating loads, and terminal sales are mainly focused on digesting finished product inventories. The compound fertilizer operating rate has decreased. From October 13 - 20, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29 percentage points from the previous period, but 3.03 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The demand for melamine is still weak. As of October 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.6154 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 171,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.88%, and 498,900 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 4.446 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons from the previous week [19][20][21]. International Market - On October 15, India's RCF urea import tender received 3.66 million tons of supplies from 25 suppliers. The lowest CFR quote on the west coast was $402/ton, and on the east coast was $395/ton. The tender price was lower than market expectations, and the international urea price was not significantly boosted. In September 2025, China's urea export volume was about 1.37 million tons, and from January to September 2025, the total export volume was about 2.81 million tons. As of October 17, the FOB price of small - particle urea in China was $385/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the FOB price of large - particle urea in China was $392.5/ton, unchanged from the previous week [23][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for the UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1580 - 1630 yuan/ton. High inventory exerts significant pressure on the urea market. With the urea price falling below the previous low of the year, downstream buyers are more enthusiastic about replenishing at low prices, and they are maintaining a strategy of buying on dips. However, the market trading atmosphere is weak, and urea shipments have slowed down. The probability of a further decrease in production is relatively high. The agricultural demand in the north has been postponed, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises may remain low in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 322,187 lots, an increase of 8,441 lots. The net position of the top 20 is - 43,322 lots, a decrease of 3,148 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 6,238 lots, a decrease of 56 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1590 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Henan is 1550 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Jiangsu is 1560 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong is 1560 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), and in Anhui is 1570 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 370 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 385 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 44.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47%. The enterprise inventory is 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. The urea enterprise operating rate is 80.64%, a decrease of 5.02%. The daily urea output is 188,600 tons, a decrease of 11,800 tons. The urea export volume is 80 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The monthly urea output is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32%. The melamine operating rate is 55.18%, a decrease of 10.29%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 167 yuan/ton, and the monthly output of compound fertilizer is 531.33 tons, a decrease of 19 tons. The weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is 109.21 yuan/ton, and the weekly output of melamine is 27,400 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 15, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 161.54 tons, an increase of 17.15 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 11.88%. As of October 16, the port inventory was 44.6 tons, an increase of 3.1 tons compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 7.47%. As of October 16, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 132.05 tons, a decrease of 6.97 tons compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.01%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.64%, a decrease of 4.25% compared to the previous period, with the trend changing from rising to falling [2]

Core Viewpoint - China aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7%-10% from peak levels by 2035, highlighting the increasing importance of non-CO2 greenhouse gas reductions, particularly nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture [1] Group 1: Nitrous Oxide Emissions and Agriculture - Agricultural activities account for 75% of global anthropogenic nitrous oxide emissions, with fertilizer application and manure management contributing 90% of this total [1] - China, as the largest producer and consumer of nitrogen fertilizers, is responsible for 33% of the country's nitrous oxide emissions [1] - The average nitrogen fertilizer utilization rate in China is approximately 28%-41%, leading to environmental issues such as soil acidification and water eutrophication [1][2] Group 2: Strategies for Emission Reduction - To achieve nitrous oxide reduction, China needs to implement strategies on both the production and consumption sides while ensuring food security [2] - The nitrogen fertilizer industry is energy-intensive, relying heavily on fossil fuels, with 79.59% of ammonia production sourced from coal, significantly higher than the global average of 22% [2] - Recommendations include optimizing energy structure, improving energy efficiency, and developing green ammonia technologies in the production sector [3] Group 3: Policy and Management Recommendations - A comprehensive policy framework and management mechanisms are necessary to guide the nitrogen fertilizer industry's low-carbon development [3] - The "4R" strategy (Right Source, Right Rate, Right Time, Right Place) should be promoted to optimize nitrogen fertilizer management and reduce waste and emissions [3] - Nitrogen fertilizer companies should prepare for future carbon constraints and engage in carbon footprint management and low-carbon technology development [4] Group 4: Industry ESG Reporting - Among 62 listed fertilizer and agrochemical companies in A-shares, 28 have disclosed their 2024 ESG reports, resulting in a disclosure rate of 45.16% [4] - Only 19 companies have achieved an ESG rating of A or above, with most rated at BB level, indicating a need for improvement in sustainability practices [4] - Companies are encouraged to establish monitoring systems for nitrous oxide emissions and engage in lifecycle carbon footprint assessments to support downstream agricultural sectors [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price rebounded slightly. Recently, many urea enterprises have shut down their devices for maintenance, resulting in a significant phased decrease in daily production, which is expected to gradually recover to over 190,000 tons after the end of the month. On the demand side, the reserve demand has moderately increased, but the rainy weather has affected the agricultural demand to some extent, and the overall downstream demand is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. Overall, there has been no obvious improvement in the supply - demand situation of urea, and the high - inventory pattern strongly limits the rebound space. The futures price continues to trade at a low level. In the future, attention should be paid to export policies and off - season storage procurement [4]. - For the UR2601 contract, focus on the trading range of 1,550 - 1,670 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: The daily production of urea has decreased phasedly. The weekly urea production is 1.3205 million tons (-5.01%), including 1.05 million tons of coal - based urea and 270,300 tons of gas - based urea, with an average daily production of 189,000 tons. There are many planned shutdowns of urea enterprises, such as Henan Zhongyuan Dahua Group Co., Ltd., Yunnan Dawei Ammonia Co., Ltd., CNOOC Fudao Co., Ltd., and Linggu Chemical Group Co., Ltd. [4][20][24] - **Demand**: The rainy weather has affected the follow - up of terminal demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 24.18% (-1.32%), and the finished product inventory is 709,100 tons (a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous period). The production of autumn fertilizers is coming to an end, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers is at a low level. The operating rate of melamine is 55.18% (-10.29%), showing a significant month - on - month decline [4][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises is 1.6451 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 171,500 tons. The port inventory is 446,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises are 6.71 days (a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 days) [4][30]. - **Cost and Profit**: The coal price is oscillating strongly, and the profit of urea has decreased month - on - month [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread is trading weakly, and the change in the 01 basis is limited [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Breakdown - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price has risen slightly this week [6]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price has shown a mixed trend of rising and falling [10]. - **Supply**: The daily production has decreased phasedly. The weekly urea production is 1.3205 million tons (-5.01%), and the average daily production is 189,000 tons. Many enterprises have planned shutdowns [16][20][24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises is 1.6451 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 171,500 tons. The port inventory is 446,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons), and the pre - sales days of enterprises have decreased [26][30]. - **Demand**: The rainy weather has affected the follow - up of terminal demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine enterprises have decreased [32][33]. - **Raw Material End**: The coal price is trading strongly [35]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread is trading weakly, and the change in the 01 basis is limited [44]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: Relevant data on spreads such as liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride (in terms of pure nitrogen) are presented [54].

Core Insights - The Wuxi Market Supervision Administration released the results of the quality supervision and spot check of fertilizer products (phosphate and compound fertilizers) for the year 2025, indicating a non-conformity rate of 10% from a total of 20 batches tested, with 2 batches failing the quality standards [3]. Group 1: Quality Inspection Results - A total of 20 batches of fertilizer products were sampled, with 2 batches found to be non-compliant, resulting in a non-conformity rate of 10% [3]. - Specific non-compliance issues included the presence of chloride ions in products not labeled as containing chlorine and insufficient quality percentages of effective phosphorus and water-soluble phosphorus [8]. Group 2: Consumer Guidance - Consumers are advised to choose well-known domestic or provincial brands to facilitate accountability in case of issues and to avoid low-priced products that may contain inferior raw materials [4]. - Packaging should be checked for proper labeling, including fertilizer registration number, production standards, and quality certificates, to ensure product authenticity [4]. Group 3: Usage Recommendations - Overuse of fertilizers does not necessarily lead to increased crop yields and can harm soil health, leading to issues such as soil compaction and reduced microbial activity [5]. - The optimal time for fertilizer application is just before rain, as moisture helps in the dissolution and absorption of nutrients in the soil [6].

Group 1 - The A-share pesticide and fertilizer sectors experienced significant upward movement on October 20, with notable stocks such as Six Nations Chemical hitting the daily limit increase [2] - Other companies in the sector, including Chuanjin Nuo, Hubei Yihua, Chuanfa Longmang, Hongda Co., and Chengxing Co., also saw substantial gains [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market is facing continuous inventory accumulation pressure. Although the supply has decreased due to an increase in maintenance devices, the support from compound fertilizer and other industrial demands has weakened. After a short - term improvement in production and sales, there are still pressures. It is expected that the urea price will fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 1550 - 1650 yuan/ton [5]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - Urea's weekly price fluctuated sideways, rebounding after hitting a new low. On October 17, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1602 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1541 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton from last week, a rise of 1.72% [5][8]. - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On October 17, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 61 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 83) - (- 59) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread of urea weakened. On October 17, the 1 - 5 spread was - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 70) - (- 68) yuan/ton [5][10]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 80.23%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from last week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 71.33%, a decrease of 1.21 percentage points from last week, and the daily average urea output was 18.86 tons. Next week, maintenance devices in Anhui, Shaanxi and other places will gradually resume production, and the domestic urea spot supply will still be relatively sufficient [5][12]. - **Cost**: The demand - side support for anthracite lump coal was weaker, and the pit - mouth lump coal of coal enterprises in some areas was under significant pressure, with coal prices falling. As of October 16, the含税 price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 820 - 900 yuan/ton, with the price center dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the closing price on September 30 [5][16]. - **Demand**: - Agricultural demand: Nationwide autumn harvest and sowing have begun. Winter wheat has been sown and emerged in most parts of Xinjiang, eastern Qinghai, eastern Gansu, southern Ningxia, Guanzhong in Shaanxi, Shanxi, Hebei, Tianjin and other places. In Gansu, nearly 80% of winter wheat has been sown, and in Shaanxi, over 10%. Rape has been sown in Zhejiang, Hubei and other places. In Chongqing, over 40% of rape has been sown, and in Hubei, over 30%. The average pre - sales of major urea production enterprises was 3.6 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.3%. With the progress of autumn harvest and sowing, agricultural demand moderately increased, and production and sales improved marginally [5][18][21]. - Industrial demand: The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 70.91 tons, a decrease of 2.59 tons from last week, and the domestic compound fertilizer inventory pressure was slightly relieved, entering a destocking trend [5][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 142.1 tons, an increase of 8.3 tons from last week, showing continuous inventory accumulation. Urea port inventory was 74 tons, an increase of 2 tons from last week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 6294, totaling 12.588 tons [5][28].

Core Viewpoint - The recent legal case involving Sichuan Sierte Fertilizer Co., Ltd. (司尔特) has revealed significant internal corruption, implicating several former executives and a representative from Guoyuan Securities, marking a potential first for a sponsor representative being sent for prosecution in 2025 [1][4]. Group 1: Case Details - Sichuan Sierte announced that it received a notice from the Xuancheng Public Security Bureau regarding the transfer of a case involving former executives and intermediary personnel for prosecution [1][4]. - The case includes allegations of embezzlement and bribery against former chairman Jin Guoqing and former general manager Jin Zhenghui, as well as Guoyuan Securities' representative Sun Bin [4]. - The main allegations involve the misuse of positions to embezzle large sums from the company and its subsidiary, fictitious transactions to misappropriate funds, and acceptance of fraudulent invoices [4][5]. Group 2: Company Response and Internal Investigation - The investigation began in late 2023 when internal audits revealed irregularities in the accounts of the subsidiary Guizhou Lufa, leading to a police report filed by Sichuan Sierte in January 2024 [4][5]. - The company’s actual controller, Yuan Qihong, has been actively involved in addressing the situation and has communicated the need for comprehensive legal measures to recover losses caused by the internal criminal group [5][7]. Group 3: Guoyuan Securities' Involvement - Sun Bin, the implicated representative from Guoyuan Securities, had previously served as a sponsor for two key financing projects for Sichuan Sierte, including a 2015 private placement raising 1.07 billion yuan and an 800 million yuan convertible bond issuance in 2019 [4][8]. - Guoyuan Securities has faced challenges in its investment banking business, with a significant decline in revenue from 9.44 billion yuan in 2021 to just 1.63 billion yuan in 2024 [10][11]. Group 4: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory landscape for sponsor representatives has tightened, with new rules implemented in September 2024 that increase accountability and oversight, aiming to prevent misconduct within the industry [12][13]. - Guoyuan Securities has been under scrutiny, receiving multiple fines for violations related to its investment banking operations, indicating ongoing issues within the firm [12].

截至2025年10月17日当周，尿素期货主力合约收于1602元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持25118 手。 本周（10月13日-10月17日）市场上看，尿素期货周内开盘报1590元/吨，最高触及1617元/吨，最低下探 至1578元/吨，周度涨跌幅达0.06%。 消息面回顾： 10月17日，山西兰花尿素汽提大颗粒出厂报价上调5元/吨至1610元/吨；安徽红四方尿素出厂报价稳定 至1570元/吨；宁夏和宁尿素执行1510元/吨，装置停车检修，该厂产能70万吨。 截至10月15日，国内尿素企业总库存量161.54万吨，较上周增加17.15万吨，环比增加11.88%。 北方近期连续降雨，农业需求推后，尿素流向下降；复合肥企业装置减负荷停车进一步增多，短期企业 继续清降库存，装置开工率或多维持低位。 机构观点汇总： 一德期货：供应端，日产18.12万吨，-0.34，突发故障，供给回落较多；需求端，复合肥开工低位，以 销定产，消化库存阶段，三聚氰胺开工持平，出口离港为主，短期供需维持宽松；关注宏观面、小麦肥 启动采购托底，出口消息等；印标开标，投标量366万吨，计划购买量200万吨；短期01暂看1580-165 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [5] Core Views - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) are marginally improving, with prices expected to continue rising due to strong demand recovery and tight supply conditions [1][3] - The domestic production capacity of LiPF6 is concentrated among a few companies, which are likely to benefit from price increases and improved profitability [2] - The lithium-ion battery materials sector is experiencing robust demand growth, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, indicating a broad demand outlook [3] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current market operating rate for LiPF6 is 75.43%, with most manufacturers operating at full capacity, leading to a supply shortage [1] - As of October 17, 2025, LiPF6 prices have risen to 75,000 CNY/ton, marking a 16.3% increase from the previous week and a 20.0% increase since the beginning of the year [1] Production Capacity - China's LiPF6 production capacity stands at 442,900 tons/year, with effective capacity at 389,400 tons/year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [2] - Major producers include Tianqi Lithium, Dongyue Group, and others, with significant expansions planned for 2025-2027 [2] Market Demand - The energy storage sector saw a cumulative bidding scale of 211.11 GWh from January to August 2025, with new installations reaching 21.9 GW/55.2 GWh in the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 69.4% and 76.6% respectively [3] - In the electric vehicle sector, production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units in the first half of 2025, with year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [3]