美国市场价格上涨但需求未受影响，鉴于美国消费者强劲的购买力，零售价格的上涨似乎并未影响联想 个人电脑在美国的销量。 服务器收入表现积极，通用服务器业务稳健。里昂预计联想服务器业务收入在4-6月环比持平，为41亿 美元，主要受云服务提供商需求推动。对于7-9月，预计随着微软和美国新客户的中国数据中心需求增 加，服务器业务将进一步环比增长。 认股权证带来显著财务收益：公司于2025年1月8日发行了11.5亿份认股权证。里昂估计认股权证将带来 1.2亿美元的收益。 近日，国际知名大行里昂证券发布研报称，继7月5日上调预期后，进一步再度上调联想集团4-6月的盈 利预期。原因在于，联想PC业务的出货量及利润率优于此前预期，服务器业务收入亦保持稳健。因 此，将联想集团目标价从 11 港元上调至 12 港元，并维持跑赢大盘评级。 联想集团PC业务强劲，市场份额持续提升。里昂预计IDG收入在4-6月环比增长14%（此前预测为 7%），主要受美国市场因关税问题需求拉动；预计7-9月份，IDG业务将保持增长势头，环比增长 10%，主要受中国市场需求推动。 区域来看，在美国、欧盟和中国市场份额提升。根据IDC数据，2Q25联想全球 ...

Core Viewpoint - International investment bank, Citi, has raised Lenovo Group's earnings forecast for the April to June period due to better-than-expected performance in PC shipments and profit margins, as well as stable server business revenue [1] Group 1: PC Business Performance - Lenovo's PC business has shown strong growth, with market share continuously increasing. The IDG revenue is expected to grow by 14% quarter-on-quarter for April to June, up from a previous forecast of 7%, driven by demand in the U.S. market due to tariff issues [1] - Lenovo's global PC shipments reached 17 million units in Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, while the overall market grew by 7.5%. Lenovo's global market share reached 24.6% in Q2 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.8 percentage points year-on-year [1] - In North America, Lenovo's market share increased by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year to 18.7%, while in Western Europe, it grew by 0.6 percentage points to 27.7%. Lenovo has gained market share from Dell and HP in the U.S. and EU, and from Huawei in China [1] Group 2: Future Growth Prospects - Strong growth momentum in Lenovo's PC business is expected to continue into the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as gaining market share from competitors, replacement demand due to the end of Windows 10 support in October, and the release of new AI models [2] - Lenovo launched a high-end AI PC model in June and may introduce new AI PC models based on NVIDIA and MediaTek chipsets in early 2026 [2] Group 3: Server Business Performance - Lenovo's server business revenue is expected to remain stable at $4.1 billion for April to June, primarily driven by demand from cloud service providers. For July to September, revenue is anticipated to grow further due to increased demand from Microsoft and new customers for data centers in China [2] Group 4: Financial Gains from Warrants - The issuance of 1.15 billion warrants on January 8, 2025, is expected to generate significant financial gains, with estimates of $120 million in revenue from these warrants [2]

在AI PC方面，联想于6月发布了一款高端AI PC机型。联想还可能在2026年初推出基于英伟达和联发科 芯片组的AI PC新机型。 美国市场价格上涨但需求未受影响，鉴于美国消费者强劲的购买力，零售价格的上涨似乎并未影响联想 个人电脑在美国的销量。 联想集团PC业务强劲，市场份额持续提升。里昂预计IDG收入在4-6月环比增长14%(此前预测为7%)， 主要受美国市场因关税问题需求拉动；预计7-9月份，IDG业务将保持增长势头，环比增长10%，主要受 中国市场需求推动。 区域来看，在美国、欧盟和中国市场份额提升。根据IDC数据，2Q25联想全球PC出货量为1,700万台， 同比增长15.3%，而市场整体增长为7.5%。其全球市场份额在2Q25达到24.6%，环比提升0.8个百分点， 同比提升1.8个百分点。在2Q25，联想在北美市场的份额同比增长1.0个百分点至18.7%，在西欧市场的 份额同比增长0.6个百分点至27.7%。联想在美国和欧盟市场从戴尔和惠普手中夺取份额，而在中国市场 则从华为手中夺取份额。 里昂预计联想PC业务的强劲增长势头将在2025年下半年持续，主要得益于：1)继续从竞争对手手中夺 取份额 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citic Lyon has raised the target price for Lenovo Group (00992) by 9% from HKD 11 to HKD 12, maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] Financial Performance - Following an upgrade on July 5, the bank has again revised its earnings forecast for the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025/26 [1] - The strong performance in the quarter ending June 30 is attributed to higher-than-expected shipment volumes and profit margins in the personal computer business, along with stable revenue in the server business [1] Earnings Expectations - The bank anticipates that Lenovo will gain USD 120 million from the fair value of warrants [1] - The latest GAAP earnings forecast for the first fiscal quarter ending June 30 is projected at USD 480 million, which is 47% higher than market expectations [1] - The non-GAAP earnings forecast has been increased by 11% compared to previous estimates [1]

报告中还指出，服务器收入增长加速，存在AI上行潜力。 预计，尽管1-3月份基数较高，但受MSFT和 CSPs强劲的通用服务器需求推动，ISG收入在4-6月份和7-9月份环比持平或微增。7-9月份之后，新的 H20/RTX-6000D项目和其他新订单可能带来潜在上行空间。摩根大通预计，中长期来看，联想存在估值 重估的机会。维持 "增持" 评级。 灵活的供应链战略以减轻关税影响。联想已将其PC生产转移至越南，同时利用内部产能和外包产能来 满足美国的PC需求。管理层预计4-6月关税影响将有所缓解，到 4-6月末影响甚微。摩根大通认为，若 关税政策发生变化，联想还在考虑将墨西哥和美国作为潜在的备用生产基地。目前，中国对美出口产品 的关税税率为 20%，而越南享有豁免。此外，原始设计制造商(ODM)多元化战略也有助于优化制造和 组装成本。 近日，摩根大通发布研报称，予联想集团(00992)目标价13港元，重申"增持"评级。并上调对该集团 2026/2027财年(3月31日止)盈利预测2-3%，主要考虑PC业务表现强劲而显著超预期。 摩根大通指出，联想PC市场份额持续提升，构成良性收益循环。根据Gartner数据，联想4 ...

灵活的供应链战略以减轻关税影响。联想已将其PC生产转移至越南，同时利用内部产能和外包产能(如 华勤)来满足美国的PC需求。管理层预计6月季度关税影响将有所缓解，到6月季度末影响甚微。摩根大 通认为，若关税政策发生变化，联想还在考虑将墨西哥和美国作为潜在的备用生产基地。目前，中国对 美出口产品的关税税率为20%，而越南享有豁免。此外，原始设计制造商(ODM)多元化战略也有助于优 化制造和组装成本。 摩根大通指出，联想PC市场份额持续提升，构成良性收益循环。根据Gartner数据，联想4-6月份的PC出 货量环比/同比分别增长12%/14%，摩根大通将此强劲表现归因于企业更换需求强于预期以及持续抢占 美国同行的市场份额，推动其全球PC市场份额从2024年第二季度的24.7%上升至2025年第二季度的 26.9%。更大的规模可能因更强的采购议价能力和更好的运营杠杆，在4-6月份带来潜在的利润率上行。 近日，摩根大通发布研报称，予联想集团(00992)目标价13港元，重申"增持"评级。并上调对该集团 2026/2027财年(3月31日止)盈利预测2-3%，主要考虑PC业务表现强劲而显著超预期。 报告中还指出，服务器收 ...

报告中还指出，服务器收入增长加速，存在AI上行潜力。 预计，尽管1-3月份基数较高，但受MSFT和 CSPs强劲的通用服务器需求推动，ISG收入在4-6月份和7-9月份环比持平或微增。7-9月份之后，新的 H20/RTX-6000D项目和其他新订单可能带来潜在上行空间。摩根大通预计，中长期来看，联想可能进军 人工智能(AI)领域，存在估值重估的机会。维持 "增持" 评级。 灵活的供应链战略以减轻关税影响。联想已将其PC生产转移至越南，同时利用内部产能和外包产能 （如华勤）来满足美国的PC需求。管理层预计 6 月季度关税影响将有所缓解，到 6 月季度末影响甚 微。摩根大通认为，若关税政策发生变化，联想还在考虑将墨西哥和美国作为潜在的备用生产基地。目 前，中国对美出口产品的关税税率为 20%，而越南享有豁免。此外，原始设计制造商（ODM）多元化 战略也有助于优化制造和组装成本。 近日，摩根大通发布研报称，予联想集团(00992)目标价13港元，重申"增持"评级。并上调对该集团 2026/2027财年(3月31日止)盈利预测2-3%，主要考虑PC业务表现强劲而显著超预期。 摩根大通指出，联想PC市场份额持续提升，构 ...

摩根大通发表研究报告指，预期联想集团6月底止2026财年首季业绩将优于市场预期，主要因PC业务的 强劲表现。该行认为，PC业务盈利的韧性表现是由于市占率提升及灵活的供应链管理。另外，集团的 服务器(ISG)业务近期有多笔新订单，带动增长。中长期而言，进军AI服务器领域可能为该股带来重新 评级机会。考虑到PC市占率扩张，该行将26及27财年的盈利预测上调2至3%，维持"增持"评级，目标价 13港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has set a target price of HKD 13 for Lenovo Group (00992) and reiterated an "Overweight" rating, citing strong performance in the personal computer (PC) segment as a key driver for the upward revision of profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026/2027 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Morgan Stanley has increased its profit forecast for Lenovo Group by 2-3% for the fiscal years ending March 31, 2026, and 2027, primarily due to the strength in the PC market [1] - For the first fiscal quarter of 2026, Lenovo's expected sales are projected to be CNY 18.266 billion, with a gross profit of USD 2.821 billion and a gross margin of 15.4% [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth - Lenovo's strong performance in the PC segment is attributed to an increase in market share and flexible supply chain management, allowing it to outperform competitors [1] - The company continues to see growth in its server business, securing numerous new orders [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite ongoing business restructuring, Lenovo's Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) is expected to maintain a net profit around breakeven, with minimal impact from restructuring costs [1] - In the medium to long term, Lenovo may venture into the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, presenting potential revaluation opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura Securities has upgraded Lenovo's rating to Buy and raised the target price to HKD 14, indicating a potential upside of 38% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Rating Upgrade and Target Price - The upgrade is attributed to Lenovo's stock price being in a consolidation phase over the past six months, presenting a buying opportunity [1] - The target price increase is based on a projected earnings per share (EPS) of USD 0.15 for fiscal year 2026, applying a 12x price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, compared to the previous EPS estimate of USD 0.14 [1] - Lenovo's current trading P/E is 8.6 times the expected EPS for fiscal year 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Performance Outlook - Strong demand for general servers and an increase in PC market share are expected to support Lenovo's performance, with potential earnings exceeding expectations for the April to June period [1] - The shift in capital expenditure from AI servers to general servers by leading clients, including international hyperscale companies and Chinese internet firms, is anticipated to drive server revenue growth [1] - Lenovo has gained market share in the U.S. and EU from competitors like Dell and HP, which will contribute positively to overall sales and profitability in the April to June period [1] Group 3: Future Projections - Looking ahead to 2026, Lenovo is expected to benefit from rising demand, particularly from Microsoft, with the recovery of H20 server shipments likely to generate additional revenue in the December quarter [2] - Despite early order pull-ins in the PC supply chain in the first half of 2025, the impact on Lenovo's PC shipment forecasts for the remainder of the year is expected to be limited, allowing for continued market share growth [2]