Group 1 - Engineering machinery stocks continued to rise in early trading, with Zoomlion (01157) up 5.83% at HKD 9.07 [1][3] - China Longgong (03339) increased by 4.15% to HKD 3.26 [1][3] - Sany International (00631) rose by 2.72% to HKD 12.07 [1][3] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808) saw a 1.90% increase, trading at HKD 36.40 [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong engineering machinery stocks continue to rise, indicating positive market sentiment in this sector [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (01157.HK) increased by 5.37%, reaching HKD 9.03 [1] - China Longgong (03339.HK) saw a rise of 3.83%, with shares priced at HKD 3.25 [1] - Sany International (00631.HK) experienced a growth of 2.38%, trading at HKD 12.03 [1] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808.HK) rose by 2.02%, with a share price of HKD 36.44 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery sector continues to experience upward momentum, with significant increases in stock prices for major companies and a positive outlook for export growth in 2025 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Major engineering machinery stocks have shown notable gains, with Zoomlion (000157) up 5.37% to HKD 9.03, China Longgong (03339) up 3.83% to HKD 3.25, Sany International (00631) up 2.38% to HKD 12.03, and China National Heavy Duty Truck (000951) up 2.02% to HKD 36.44 [1] Group 2: Trade Data - According to the General Administration of Customs, the total import and export trade value of China's engineering machinery is projected to reach USD 62.743 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [1] - The import value is expected to be USD 2.575 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.63% year-on-year, while the export value is anticipated to be USD 60.169 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Excavators remain the primary export product in the engineering machinery sector, maintaining a favorable market condition [1] - Bohai Securities reports that with the gradual implementation of key projects and the continuation of large-scale equipment renewal policies, the market for engineering machinery is experiencing a sustained recovery [1] - For the full year of 2025, excavator sales are projected to reach 235,300 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 17% [1] - Domestic leading manufacturers in the engineering machinery sector are increasingly expanding into overseas markets, leveraging strong competitiveness in technology maturity and product cost-performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The engineering machinery sector continues to experience upward momentum, with significant increases in stock prices for major companies and a positive outlook for export growth in 2025 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Zoomlion (01157) increased by 5.37%, trading at HKD 9.03 [1] - China Longgong (03339) rose by 3.83%, trading at HKD 3.25 [1] - Sany International (00631) saw a 2.38% increase, trading at HKD 12.03 [1] - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (03808) grew by 2.02%, trading at HKD 36.44 [1] Group 2: Trade Data - The total import and export trade value of China's engineering machinery is projected to reach USD 62.743 billion in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [1] - Import value is expected to be USD 2.575 billion, showing a slight decline of 0.63% year-on-year [1] - Export value is anticipated to be USD 60.169 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.8% [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Excavators remain the primary export product in the engineering machinery sector, maintaining a favorable market condition [1] - Bohai Securities reports that with the rollout of key projects and continued favorable policies for large-scale equipment updates, the sector's recovery is expected to persist [1] - For 2025, excavator sales are projected to reach 235,300 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 17% [1] - Domestic leading manufacturers are increasingly expanding into overseas markets, leveraging strong competitiveness in technology maturity and product cost-effectiveness [1]

2月2日，徐州市统计局发布2025年徐州市经济运行情况。 根据地区生产总值统一核算结果，2025年全市实现地区生产总值9957.22亿元，按不变价格计算，比上 年增长5.8%。这意味着，全力冲刺"万亿之城"的徐州，最终还是差了"一点"。 早在2021年，徐州"十四五"规划纲要就提出，"到2025年，地区生产总值突破1万亿元"。其后，这一目 标连续四年被写入徐州市政府工作报告。在2025年政府工作报告中，徐州明确提出："朝着万亿级城市 快步迈进，将'十四五'规划蓝图变为现实。" 遗憾的是，徐州最终还是与这一目标擦肩而过。 对此，徐州市委书记宋乐伟此前在回应备受关注的"万亿"话题时谈到："实事求是，顺其自然。"他还指 出，"不要纠结于这个数字，不能被数字所累"，该怎么发展就怎么发展，要扎扎实实地发展。 面向"十五五"，徐州的万亿目标大概率将在2026年实现，江苏也将迎来第六座GDP万亿之城。 但这对徐州来说还只是起点。徐州"十五五"规划建议提出，区域中心城市始终是徐州发展的最大优势和 最大潜力。 从三次产业结构来看，第一产业增加值792.46亿元，同比增长3.0%；第二产业增加值3656.29亿元，增 长3.5% ...

机械板块2月思路： 1、光模块自动化设备。 易中天业绩都比较超预期，美股lite下周发业绩，也比较好。 光模块自动化设备有机会。 首推＃科瑞技术 2、北美缺电方向持续演绎。 光模块自动化设备有机会。 首推＃科瑞技术 2、北美缺电方向持续演绎。 杰瑞股份又拿了新燃机订单，新客户。 几个大厂（卡特、特灵，gev等）上周的财报反馈排产满，订单好。 杰瑞股份又拿了新燃机订单，新客户。 几个大厂（卡特、特灵，gev等）上周的财报反馈排产满，订单好。 ＃杰瑞＃联德＃应流等。 机械板块2月思路： 1、光模块自动化设备。 易中天业绩都比较超预期，美股lite下周发业绩，也比较好。 4、人形机器人 锋龙股份解除监管（优必选借壳），看看能否带动一下板块。 其实，最近机器人里面一些个股默默新高，比如绿的谐波。 ＃杰瑞＃联德＃应流等。 另外，太空光伏，不管是特斯拉地面光伏团队还是space x团队，审厂，订设备，节奏都会比较快。 周末讨论space x发卫星也比较多，还是板块性机会。 ＃迈为＃捷佳＃连城＃晶盛机电＃高测股份＃奥特维 3、工程机械&矿山机械 1月出口可能是几十的增长，超预期。 恒立液压春节可能不放假，大年初一就开始生产 ...

建议逢低布局。本次波动与美联储主席提名引发的美宽松预期变化有关，但更主要的可能是此前大宗商 品价格过快上行，交易拥挤度较高，一旦预期变化将引发头寸集中抛售。并且该行认为凯文·沃什的决 策可能受到较多制约，美联储难以像市场担忧彻底转为鹰派，市场短期可能已经提前计入较多悲观预 期。A股当前资金面充裕、业绩改善、产业趋势催化等积极因素并未发生改变，该行认为短期波动已开 始提供逢低布局机会。中期而言，该行在此前研报中指出，国际秩序重构与我国产业创新趋势共振是推 动本轮市场上涨、中国资产重估的核心驱动力；全球货币秩序重构带来的格局转换和资金流动的力量， 或远大于一时、一国和一市场的基本面力量。该行认为，这两大条件未发生改变，2026年将继续支持中 国资产表现。 A股今日表现偏弱，上证指数下跌2.5%。2026年初A股市场在乐观预期、产业事件性催化、流动性相对 充裕等因素影响下延续上行趋势，但换手率过高、情绪偏热后，市场自1月13日震荡调整。今日A股市 场主要指数普跌，上证指数跌2.5%，沪深300跌2.1%，偏成长风格的科创50和创业板指分别跌3.9%、 2.5%，中证红利跌3.1%。成交层面，今日成交额2.6万亿元， ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition towards "new and old coexisting" for institutional investors is occurring, indicating a shift from "new surpassing old" in 2025 to a balanced allocation in 2026, emphasizing the need to invest in both AI technology and cyclical sectors like manufacturing and commodities [1][3]. Group 1: Technology Sector Rebalancing - The essence of the "new" is the downward movement of AI technology, transitioning towards the fourth stage of supply-demand gaps, with upstream gaps in copper, storage, and power equipment, and downstream gaps in AI applications and components [1][3]. - The internal rebalancing within technology indicates a need to avoid simplistic trading strategies based on risk preferences [3]. Group 2: Export and Overseas Business Rebalancing - The "old" aspect reflects a shift in exports and overseas business towards the midstream, with traditional industries stabilizing and growing profits as they move from downstream manufacturing to midstream sectors like engineering machinery, wind power, chemicals, and industrial metals [1][3]. - The rebalancing in overseas business highlights the increasing profitability and growth potential of midstream manufacturing compared to downstream exports [3][24]. Group 3: Resource Pricing Rebalancing - In 2026, resource pricing may not align with the assumption of a consistently weak dollar, suggesting a potential for a stronger dollar, emphasizing the return to commodity attributes and a decline in financial attributes [1][4]. - The focus on resource pricing indicates that commodities driven by supply-demand fundamentals are more likely to see price increases, making them attractive for continued investment [4][24]. Group 4: Institutional Investor Trends - Observations from Q4 2025 indicate a clear consensus among institutional investors on AI technology, overseas equipment, and globally priced resources as key investment areas, with these sectors showing significant gains in the A-share market [2][5]. - The increase in FOF products and the rise of passive funds reflect a strong demand for stable, income-generating investment products, while active funds are experiencing a decline [5][41]. Group 5: Sector-Specific Insights - In Q4 2025, institutional investors increased their holdings in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, non-bank financials, and machinery, while reducing exposure in pharmaceuticals, computing, electronics, media, and renewable energy [5][6]. - The allocation towards AI technology is showing divergence, with a decrease in holdings for sectors with weaker earnings visibility, while sectors with strong earnings, like CPO, are seeing increased investment [6][10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a phase of adjustment after a rapid rise, with potential for a slow bull market supported by favorable factors. The current market favors growth styles, with emerging opportunities in low-priced stocks [2]. Group 1: Energy and Basic Materials - Coal prices are in a state of fluctuation, with January prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and coke rising by 2%, 4%, and 2% respectively. The coal industry maintains stable profitability and cash flow, with a current dividend yield of 5.3% [9]. - Oil prices have shown a 14% increase month-on-month in January, but a year-on-year decrease of 11%. Geopolitical risks are rising, impacting oil supply and prices [10]. - The prices of non-ferrous metals have seen significant increases, with lithium carbonate prices rising by 35% in January. The demand is supported by AI applications and the proliferation of new energy [11]. Group 2: Industrial Products - The AI industry chain remains highly prosperous, with strong domestic demand for engineering machinery and a projected 18% increase in domestic excavator sales by 2025. The photovoltaic industry is also seeing price recoveries [3]. - The automotive sector is facing a projected 6% decline in sales by November 2025, with a focus on opportunities related to overseas markets and smart driving [3]. Group 3: Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are experiencing a decline, with sales of washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners dropping by 27%, 37%, and 36% year-on-year in December 2025. The effectiveness of consumption support policies is under observation [4]. - The average purchase price of live pigs remains stable at 14 yuan/kg, with a total pig stock of 429.67 million heads by the end of 2025, indicating a relatively abundant supply [4]. Group 4: Technology - The domestic AI application landscape is seeing significant developments, with multiple domestic large models being released. The semiconductor industry remains robust, with global sales increasing by 30% year-on-year in November [5]. - The gaming industry is recovering, with 1,771 game licenses issued in 2025, indicating a positive trend [5]. Group 5: Financials - The stock market sentiment has improved significantly, with insurance premium income rising by 7% year-on-year in December 2025. The average daily trading volume of A-shares exceeded 30 trillion yuan in January [5].

点击小程序查看报告原文 A股今日表现偏弱 ， 上证指数下跌2.5%。 2026年初A股市场在乐观预期、产业事件性催化、流动性相对充裕等因素影响下延续上行趋势，但换手率过 高、情绪偏热后，市场自1月13日震荡调整。今日A股市场主要指数普跌，上证指数跌2.5%，沪深300跌2.1%，偏成长风格的科创50和创业板指分别跌 3.9%、2.5%，中证红利跌3.1%。成交层面，今日成交额2.6万亿元，较前一个交易日缩量约0.26万亿元。行业层面，食品饮料、银行表现相对韧性，其他 行业普跌，此前连续上行的有色金属板块今日跌幅较大，作为权重板块拖累指数表现。与此同时，今日已收盘的亚太市场整体表现不佳，恒生指数跌 2.2%，日经225跌1.3%，韩国KOSPI跌5.3%。 今日A股出现较大调整，主要来自外部不确定性提升。 包括： 1）下一任美联储主席提名影响美宽松预期。 1月30日美国总统特朗普在社媒宣布，提名美 联储委员会前理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席[1]。沃什曾被认为是货币政策偏"鹰派"人物，但近期公开表示倾向于较低的利率，支持采取"缩表+降息"的 组合[2]。与此前其他热门候选人相比，沃什过往的"鹰派"立场削弱了市场 ...