Meeting Overview - The 11th meeting of the 9th Supervisory Board of Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. was held on March 27, 2025, with all three supervisors present [1][2] - The meeting was convened in compliance with relevant laws and regulations [1] Agenda Items - The Supervisory Board reviewed the 2024 Annual Report, concluding that the report accurately reflects the company's situation and complies with legal requirements [2][4] - The 2024 Annual Supervisory Board Work Report was also approved and will be submitted for shareholder meeting review [2][4] - The proposed profit distribution plan for 2024 was discussed, with a net profit of approximately 812.92 million yuan reported for the parent company and 588.70 million yuan for the consolidated report [2][3] - The profit distribution plan includes a total cash dividend of approximately 155.00 million yuan, representing 30.54% of the distributable net profit [3][4] - The internal control evaluation report for 2024 was reviewed, confirming that the company's internal controls are effective and without significant deficiencies [4][5] Voting Results - All agenda items were approved unanimously with three votes in favor and no votes against or abstentions [2][4][5]

Group 1 - The company held its 19th meeting of the 9th Board of Directors, where the profit distribution plan for 2024 was approved with unanimous consent [2] - The net profit for the parent company in 2024 was confirmed to be approximately 812.92 million yuan, while the consolidated net profit attributable to the parent company's shareholders was about 588.70 million yuan [2] - The proposed profit distribution plan includes a total cash dividend of approximately 155.00 million yuan, which represents 30.54% of the distributable net profit for the year [2][4] Group 2 - The cash dividend amount for 2024 is lower than the previous year's total of approximately 166.91 million yuan, but significantly higher than the amount of approximately 83.45 million yuan from two years ago [4] - The company has not engaged in any share buybacks during the reported periods [4] - The cash dividend plan is deemed reasonable, taking into account the characteristics of the electrolytic aluminum industry, the company's development stage, operational model, profitability, debt repayment capacity, and investor returns [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Debon Securities indicates that China Hongqiao (01378) has a well-established industrial chain, allowing it to gain profits from both upstream and downstream in the electrolytic aluminum industry. With the continuous increase in the proportion of green aluminum, the company's profitability and social contribution are expected to expand further. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 22 billion, 24.3 billion, and 24.9 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved total operating revenue of 156.169 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.69%. The pre-tax profit was 32.797 billion yuan, up 106.4%, and the net profit reached 22.372 billion yuan, reflecting a 95.21% increase [1] - The average price of alumina in Shandong reached 5,705.0 yuan/ton by December 31, 2024, with an annual average price of 4,035.7 yuan/ton, marking a 39% year-on-year increase. The average price of electrolytic aluminum was 19,790.0 yuan/ton at the end of 2024, with an annual average of 19,921.6 yuan/ton, showing an approximate 6.5% increase [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Green Aluminum - In 2024, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan province remained high, achieving nearly full production capacity with a utilization rate of 99.32%. This level was maintained close to 100% thereafter [2] - The company is actively expanding its green aluminum production, with projects in Wenshan and Honghe that may bring the total hydropower aluminum capacity close to 4 million tons. Hydropower aluminum has significantly lower carbon emissions compared to coal-fired aluminum, which is expected to provide a competitive advantage in the future [2] Group 3: Dividend Policy - The company declared a final dividend of 1.02 HKD per share, along with an interim dividend of 0.59 HKD per share, resulting in a total annual dividend of 1.61 HKD per share. The total cash dividend amounted to 14.1 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 63%, a notable increase from the previous year's ratio of around 50% [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is about to impose copper and reciprocal tariffs, which will lead to a general decline in non - ferrous metals. However, the impact on different metals varies. For example, the market for copper will quickly adjust the price difference, and the upward trend of copper prices may be near the end [2]. - The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Although the number of alumina plant overhauls is increasing, the impact on monthly production is limited. There is a possibility of a marginal decline in alumina production capacity from April to May [5][8]. - The aluminum market is supported by strong domestic demand. Despite the expected tariff increase in the US, LME aluminum shows a narrow - range sideways movement. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises'开工 rate is rising, and the demand for aluminum profiles is expected to be boosted [14][17][18]. - The zinc market is in a state of range - bound oscillation. Although there is an expectation of a large increase in zinc ingot supply, the current inventory is relatively low, and domestic consumption is expected to be boosted by policies [21][23]. - The lead market is affected by factors such as high prices of waste batteries and changes in supply and demand. The price of lead is running at a high level, but the profit of secondary lead smelters is shrinking, and there is a certain willingness to reduce production [26][28]. - The nickel market is expected to be strong in the short - term. The price of nickel ore is expected to be firm due to concerns about policies and production shortages. However, in the medium - term, high prices may stimulate over - supply [31][32]. - The stainless - steel market is affected by raw material prices and demand. The price of NPI is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is still tight, but the upward space is gradually narrowing [38][39]. - The tin market is in a state of high - level wide - range oscillation. The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure to some extent in the future [44][48]. - The industrial silicon market is expected to decline. The rumor of joint production cuts by industrial silicon manufacturers is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand [50][54]. - The polysilicon market is expected to be volatile. Although there is information about production cuts, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations [56][58]. - The lithium carbonate market is expected to decline. The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [63][64]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper 2504 contract closed at 81,980 yuan, up 0.4%, and the open interest of the Shanghai copper index increased by 13,455 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The US may impose copper tariffs soon, and Glencore has suspended copper shipments from its Chilean smelter [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US copper tariff will lead to a price adjustment in the market, and the upward trend of copper prices may end. Trend - following long positions should all be liquidated [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Close long positions for single - side trading, and wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [2]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2504 contract rose 34 yuan/ton to 3,090 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the weighted index decreased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [4]. - **Related Information**: Some alumina plants are undergoing overhauls, and the inventory of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased [5][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The increase in overhauls has limited impact on monthly production. The price of alumina is expected to be volatile before substantial production cuts [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, short when the price rebounds after substantial production cuts; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2504 contract closed at 20,700 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [13]. - **Related Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main markets decreased, and a green - power aluminum project in Inner Mongolia is under construction. The carbon - emission trading market is expanding, and the US is considering tariff strategies [14][15]. - **Trading Logic**: The overseas macro - environment is volatile, but domestic demand is strong, which supports the price of aluminum [17][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of aluminum is expected to be in a high - level range - bound state in the short - term; wait and see for options trading [19]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2505 contract rose 0.06% to 24,155 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot market trading sentiment in Shanghai was not high [20]. - **Related Information**: The global zinc market is in a state of supply shortage, and some mining projects are expected to be put into production [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although there is an expectation of a large increase in supply, the current low inventory and domestic policies may support consumption, and the price is in a range - bound state [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may be in a wide - range oscillation in the short - term and bearish in the long - term; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [24]. Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2505 contract rose 0.48% to 17,615 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot market trading was light [25]. - **Related Information**: The global lead market shows a change in supply and demand, and the domestic electric bicycle replacement policy has an impact on consumption [26]. - **Logic Analysis**: The high price of waste batteries leads to a reduction in the profit of secondary lead smelters, but domestic consumption is expected to be boosted [28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of lead is running at a high level due to market sentiment; wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [29]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel main contract 2505 rose 700 to 129,670 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index increased. The spot price of nickel showed different trends [30]. - **Related Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives of cobalt, spodumene, and nickel. The production of an MHP project in Indonesia is affected by floods [31]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of nickel is expected to be strong in the short - term due to factors such as raw material shortages, but there is limited upward space in the medium - term [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds [33]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract rose 50 to 13,410 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price of stainless steel is within a certain range [35]. - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel plant has started producing 304 materials, and India is considering a safeguard measure tariff on steel imports [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of raw materials is relatively high, and the supply of 300 - series stainless steel is tight, but the upward space is limited [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the bottom of the price is rising, but the upward space is also limited; wait and see for arbitrage trading [40][41]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2504 contract closed at 277,650 yuan/ton, up 3460 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased. The spot price of tin rose [43]. - **Related Information**: The production of a tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has stopped, and Wa State has issued a document on the resumption of tin mining [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The shortage of tin concentrate is intensified, but the possible resumption of production in Wa State may relieve the supply pressure in the future, and the price is in a high - level wide - range oscillation [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price of tin is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the risk of price decline; wait and see for options trading [49]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 9780 yuan/ton, down 1.31%. The spot price is stable [50]. - **Related Information**: A project of an organic silicon company has been put into production [51]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The rumor of joint production cuts is false, and the market is in a state of oversupply with weak demand, and the price may decline [54]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, the price may decline after the false rumor of production cuts; no strategy for options and arbitrage trading [55]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures price closed at 43,640 yuan/ton, down 0.26%. The spot price is within a certain range [56]. - **Related Information**: Henan Province has launched a new batch of source - network - load - storage integration projects [57]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply pressure of polysilicon is not large, and the market may be affected by factors such as inventory and demand expectations, and the price may be volatile [58]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, go long at low prices; sell out - of - the - money put options; conduct positive arbitrage for PS2506 and PS2511 contracts and reverse arbitrage for PS2511 and PS2512 contracts [59][61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 520 to 74,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest of the index decreased. The spot price is stable [62]. - **Important Information**: The Intercontinental Exchange plans to launch derivatives, and some lithium - related projects are under construction [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price of lithium carbonate may continue to fall due to factors such as a decrease in imported ore prices and weak demand [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, take a bearish view when the price rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage trading; consider holding 2505 put ratio options [65][67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) [2][6] Core Views - The company has demonstrated robust performance with a significant increase in net profit by 95.2% year-on-year for 2024, driven by rising sales and decreasing raw material costs [6][7] - The company is positioned well in the market with a high dividend yield of approximately 11%, reflecting its strong long-term investment value [6][7] - The supply-demand dynamics for electrolytic aluminum are favorable, with limited supply growth and increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles [6][7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 133,624 million RMB - 2024: 156,169 million RMB - 2025E: 153,099 million RMB - 2026E: 158,004 million RMB - 2027E: 158,736 million RMB - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 11,461 million RMB - 2024: 22,372 million RMB - 2025E: 21,869 million RMB - 2026E: 24,585 million RMB - 2027E: 25,293 million RMB - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: 1.21 RMB - 2024: 2.36 RMB - 2025E: 2.31 RMB - 2026E: 2.60 RMB - 2027E: 2.67 RMB [6][7] Key Events - The company announced a final dividend for 2024, with a total payout of 161 HKD cents per share, indicating a strong commitment to returning value to shareholders [6][7] - The report highlights a decrease in coal prices, which has positively impacted the company's cost structure, leading to improved profitability [6][7]

上 市 公 司 有色金属 2025 年 03 月 17 日 中国宏桥 (01378) ——全球一体化布局完备，业绩稳健的高股息标的 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 15.06 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8877.99 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 15.38/6.91 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,425.26 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 9,463.89 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0834 | 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 (8621)23297818× guozy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -3% 47% 97% 147% HSCEI 中国宏桥 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A02305230 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][5] Core Viewpoints - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry has significantly improved, with the average profit reaching 3,354.51 CNY/ton as of March 10, 2025, driven by a 5% increase in electrolytic aluminum prices and a 40% decrease in alumina prices [5] - The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry is at a high level of 43.6 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.5%, indicating limited room for further increases in production [5] - Demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to rise in 2025, with a projected consumption of approximately 4.247 million tons, reflecting a recovery from the previous year's decline [5] - The price of alumina is anticipated to continue declining, which may further enhance the profitability of aluminum enterprises [5] - Investment recommendations include maintaining attention on the electrolytic aluminum industry, with specific stock picks such as Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Tianshan Aluminum [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report indicates a market performance trend for the non-ferrous metals sector, showing fluctuations in comparison to the CSI 300 index [3] Industry Demand and Supply - The electrolytic aluminum demand is projected to improve in 2025, with a recovery in sectors such as real estate and transportation [5] - The alumina production capacity is expected to increase significantly in 2025, potentially lowering costs for electrolytic aluminum production [5] Profitability and Cost Trends - The report highlights a notable improvement in profitability due to declining costs and favorable price movements in the electrolytic aluminum market [5]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **non-ferrous metals industry**, with a focus on the **electrolytic aluminum** and **steel** sectors [1][2][11]. Key Points on Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - **Market Performance**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to perform well, with a confirmed inventory turning point. Social inventories of aluminum ingots and bars have decreased, with aluminum ingots down by 0.2 thousand tons and aluminum bars down by 0.86 thousand tons [3][4]. - **Price Trends**: Aluminum prices have started to rise, reaching 2,835 RMB/ton, marking a 1% increase this week. This aligns with expectations of improved demand [4]. - **Cost Improvements**: The cost structure for electrolytic aluminum is improving due to declining alumina prices and increased upstream supply. Additionally, lower coal prices are reducing electricity costs for self-supplied power plants, benefiting profitability [5][6]. - **Profitability**: Companies in the Xinjiang region, such as Shenhuo, have seen significant improvements in profitability, with net profit per ton of aluminum around 4,000 RMB. However, these improvements may reflect in financial statements with a delay of one to two months [6]. - **Future Outlook**: The overall market logic for electrolytic aluminum is gradually being realized, with expectations for continued price increases driven by cost reductions, tightening supply, and improving demand [8]. Key Points on Steel Sector - **Market Dynamics**: The steel sector is experiencing a positive sentiment due to expectations of capacity reduction and improved demand from the real estate sector. The government has indicated a focus on reducing crude steel production [2][9]. - **Profitability Outlook**: The steel industry's profitability is expected to improve as coal and ore prices decline, providing a safety margin for the sector [9]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Companies with strong cost control and good regional competitive positions, such as New Steel and Hualian Steel, are recommended for investment [9]. Key Points on Copper Market - **Supply and Demand**: The copper market is showing signs of a supply constraint due to a lack of new capacity in recent years. Current inventory levels are relatively healthy, and demand is expected to improve as the traditional consumption peak approaches [7][10]. - **Price Drivers**: Factors such as the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on copper imports and a declining U.S. dollar index are likely to support copper price increases [10]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Metal Mining are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the copper sector [10]. Additional Insights - The overall non-ferrous metals sector is gaining attention, with aluminum and steel showing sustained performance. The copper market is also beginning to show clearer turning points, suggesting potential investment opportunities in leading companies [11].