纸浆早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/07 SP主力合约收盘价： 5036.00 | 日期 | 2025/05/06 | 2025/04/30 | 2025/04/29 | 2025/04/28 | 2025/04/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 5036.00 | 5120.00 | 5178.00 | 5344.00 | 5376.00 | | 折美元价 | 608.94 | 615.30 | 622.18 | 639.39 | 644.71 | | 距上一日涨跌 | -1.64063% | -1.12012% | -3.10629% | -0.59524% | -0.22272% | | 山东银星基差 | 1174 | 1115 | 1072 | 991 | 974 | | 江浙沪银星基差 | 1164 | 1145 | 1107 | 956 | 974 | 以13%增值税计算 | 产地 | 品牌 | 价格说明 | 港口美元价格 | 山东地区人民币价格 | 进口利润 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Monetary Policy and Financial Market - The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the re-lending rate by 0.25 percentage points, effective from May 7, 2025, with new rates for various terms set at 1.2%, 1.4%, and 1.5% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year loans respectively [1] - The total scale of ETFs in the Shanghai market has surpassed 3 trillion yuan, with over 680 products available, including stock, bond, commodity, and cross-border assets [1] - The interest rate for personal housing provident fund loans has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, with the new rate for first-time homebuyers set at 2.6% for loans over five years, potentially reducing total interest payments by approximately 47,600 yuan for a 1 million yuan loan over 30 years [1] Smartphone Market - In Q1 2025, China's smartphone market saw a year-on-year shipment increase of 9%, reaching 68.7 million units, marking five consecutive quarters of growth [2] - The growth is attributed to normalized inventory levels, steady channel expansion, and improved economic conditions following alleviated concerns in the real estate market [2] Paper Industry - The China Paper Association reported that the paper industry is expected to achieve a total profit of 52 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.23% [2] - The industry's revenue is projected to reach 1.46 trillion yuan, a 3.88% increase from the previous year [2] Investment Activities - Uber is set to invest an additional 100 million USD in WeRide, marking its largest investment in the autonomous driving sector to date [3] - The establishment of a financial asset investment company (AIC) by Industrial Bank has been approved, with a six-month timeline for completion [5] - The venture capital firm Dongfang Fuhai has applied to pilot technology innovation bonds, potentially becoming the first private investment institution to participate [5] Company Performance - Kemin Foods reported a sales revenue of 70.9 million yuan from pig sales in April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16.04% [6] - Taiji Co. announced the purchase of 50 million yuan in wealth management products to enhance fund utilization efficiency [7] - Jinguang Co. and its subsidiary won multiple projects totaling approximately 258 million yuan, covering various electrical equipment and infrastructure projects [9] - Daqin Railway reported a cargo transport volume of 30.62 million tons in April, a year-on-year increase of 0.99% [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The pulp market is bearish overall due to weakened cost support from lower pulp foreign quotes and weak terminal demand. A short - term bearish view is recommended, or a 7 - 9 reverse spread strategy can be considered [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On May 6, 2025, SP2505 was 5064, down 1.02% day - on - day and 7.66% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5038, down 1.64% day - on - day and 6.53% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5000, down 1.30% day - on - day and 6.37% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6200, unchanged day - on - day and down 2.36% week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5200, unchanged day - on - day and down 4.59% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and down 4.60% week - on - week [1]. - **Foreign Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 770 dollars, down 6.67% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 630 dollars, up 3.28% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 690 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 6289, down 6.62% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 5154, up 3.25% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5640, unchanged month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In March 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 79.8 tons, unchanged month - on - month, and broadleaf pulp imports were 147 tons, down 8.47% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China in February 2025 was 1502 tons, down 2.66% month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory**: As of April 24, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 210.6 tons, up 1.8% from the previous period; the delivery warehouse inventory was 32.10 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard decreased slightly [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On May 6, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 164 with a quantile level of 0.881; the Silver Star basis was 1164 with a quantile level of 0.999 [1]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 89 with a quantile level of 0.471; that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 1004 with a quantile level of 0.057 [1].

5月7日，中国造纸协会正式发布《中国造纸工业2024年度报告》。报告显示，伴随我国经济运行总体平 稳，造纸行业生产运行也整体向好，生产总量有所增加，主营业务收入和利润总额有所增长。全行业营 业收入完成1.46万亿元，同比增长3.88%；实现利润总额520亿元，同比增长5.23%。(上海证券报) ...

证券研究报告 悦己消费和优质国货高增，稳健白马筑底 ——轻工制造24A&25Q1业绩综述 2025年05月04日 行业评级：看好 分析师 史凡可 傅嘉成 曾伟 褚远熙 陈秋露 01rto 经济大盘乏力， 消费结构性景气 2 邮箱 shifanke@stocke.com.cn fujiacheng@stocke.com.cn zengwei@stocke.com.cn chuyuanxi@stocke.com.cn chenqiulu@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230520080008 S1230521090001 S1230524090011 S1230524090009 S1230525040001 1.2 24A&25Q1综述：家居造纸筑底、个护保持成长 ne 24A&25Q1综述：情绪消费和优质国货成长凸显 子赛道具体表现：收入端文娱个护最优，利润端包装稳定性最强 3 1.1 复盘24Q4&25Q1：大盘消费疲软，以潮玩、宠物为代表的情绪消费类资产表现超额明显，此外部分优质国货产品创新能力突出， 借力差异化渠道实现较好的成长势能，持续重视成长资产布局，例如泡泡玛特、布鲁可、乖宝宠物、中宠 ...

截至2025年5月6日收盘，民丰特纸(600235)报收于5.87元，上涨2.62%，换手率1.99%，成交量6.99万 手，成交额4075.53万元。 董秘最新回复 投资者： 最你好董秘，近行业内有没有出台一些利好政策？公司打算如何利用这些政策来改善当前营 收状况，在后续实现业绩反弹呢？ 董秘： 尊敬的投资者，您好。公司始终高度关注行业政策动向，一旦有重大政策出台，公司将会及时 研判政策影响并积极应对。谢谢 投资者： 一季度营收不太乐观，不过市场总是在变化的。公司接下来有没有计划开拓新的市场或者客 户群体？这些新的布局在后续是否有可能带来营收的显著增长？ 董秘： 尊敬的投资者，您好。公司一期项目已于今年3月底投产，达到设计产能尚需一段时间。公司目 前出口业务占总体业务比重极小，无直接对美出口业务。谢谢 董秘： 尊敬的投资者，您好。公司海盐厂区一期项目已于今年3月底投产，二期项目计划于今年6月底 投产。项目投产后，公司将全力以赴冲市场、拓市场、抢市场，不断提升公司整体销量。同时在产品出 海方面，我们将继续通过"走出去、请进来"的方式，加大对国际市场的拓展开发力度，努力提升市场竞 争力和品牌影响力，尽一切可能实 ...

Group 1: SP Main Contract Information - The closing price of the SP main contract on April 30, 2025, was 5120.00 [2] - The closing prices from April 24 - 30, 2025, showed a downward trend with daily percentage changes of -0.25916%, -0.22272%, -0.59524%, -3.10629%, and -1.12012% respectively [2] - The corresponding converted US - dollar prices were 645.29, 644.71, 639.39, 622.18, and 615.30 [2] - The Shandong Yinxing basis and Jiangsu - Zhejiang - Shanghai Yinxing basis also had certain fluctuations during this period [2] Group 2: Pulp Import Information - With a 13% VAT calculation, for Canadian pulp brands like Golden Lion and Lion, the port US - dollar prices were 840 and 820 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6800 and 5720, with import profits of -161.19 and -932.12 [3] - For the Chilean Silver Star pulp, the port US - dollar price was 825, the Shandong region RMB price was 6235, and the import profit was -603.14 [3] Group 3: Pulp Price Averages - From April 24 - 30, 2025, the national and Shandong region average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural pulp, and chemimechanical pulp remained unchanged [3] - The cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white - card index), and the price of living paper (living index) showed little change, with only the living index dropping by 3 [3] Group 4: Pulp Product Profit Margins - From April 25 - 30, 2025, the estimated profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, and living paper increased, with changes of 1.1019, 0.8437, and 0.6915 respectively [3] - The estimated profit margin of white - card paper decreased by 0.5623 [3] Group 5: Pulp Price Spreads - From April 24 - 30, 2025, the price spreads between softwood and hardwood pulp, softwood and natural pulp, softwood and chemimechanical pulp, and softwood and waste paper pulp had certain fluctuations [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price yet to be specified [5]. Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 35.4% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, reaching 2.99 billion yuan, although net profit decreased by 12.1% to 236 million yuan [1]. - For the year 2024, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 10.27 billion yuan, a 20.1% increase, and a net profit of 1.00 billion yuan, reflecting a 51.2% growth [1]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in Guangxi and Hubei, which are expected to enhance its market share and profitability [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.99 billion yuan, up 35.4% year-on-year, while net profit was 236 million yuan, down 12.1% [1]. - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 10.27 billion yuan, a 20.1% increase, and a net profit of 1.00 billion yuan, a 51.2% increase [1]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 15.46%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points, with a net profit margin of 9.77%, up 2.0 percentage points [1]. Product Diversification - Daily consumer products generated a revenue of 4.83 billion yuan in 2024, a 17.68% increase, with a gross margin of 16.50% [2]. - The food and medical packaging materials segment achieved a revenue of 1.86 billion yuan, a 7.32% increase, with a gross margin of 10.28% [2]. - The tobacco industry support segment reported a revenue of 907 million yuan, an 11.63% increase, with a gross margin of 22.81% [3]. Capacity Expansion - The company has initiated two major projects in Guangxi and Hubei, each with an annual production capacity of 2.5 million tons, which are expected to significantly boost production and market share [4]. - The Guangxi project has already produced 100,000 tons of wood pulp and 29,000 tons of specialty paper in 2024 [4]. - The Hubei project commenced operations in January 2024, with three paper production lines and four pulp production lines currently running [4]. Profitability Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting net profits of 1.16 billion yuan in 2025, 1.38 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.58 billion yuan in 2027 [9]. - The projected P/E ratios for the next three years are 13X for 2025, 11X for 2026, and 9X for 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [5] Core Views - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a 35.4% year-on-year increase in Q1 2025, reaching 2.99 billion yuan, although net profit decreased by 12.1% to 236 million yuan [1] - For the year 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.27 billion yuan, up 20.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.00 billion yuan, which is a 51.2% increase [1] - The company is expanding its production capacity with new projects in Guangxi and Hubei, which are expected to significantly enhance its market share and profitability [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.99 billion yuan, a 35.4% increase year-on-year, while the net profit was 236 million yuan, down 12.1% [1] - For 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 10.27 billion yuan, a 20.1% increase, and a net profit of 1.00 billion yuan, reflecting a 51.2% growth [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 15.46%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points, and the net profit margin was 9.77%, up 2.0 percentage points [1] Product Diversification - The daily consumer products segment generated 4.83 billion yuan in revenue, a 17.68% increase, with a gross margin of 16.50%, up 5.52 percentage points [2] - The food and medical packaging materials segment achieved 1.86 billion yuan in revenue, a 7.32% increase, with a gross margin of 10.28%, up 3.37 percentage points [2] - The tobacco industry support segment reported 907 million yuan in revenue, an 11.63% increase, with a gross margin of 22.81%, up 6.33 percentage points [3] Capacity Expansion - The company has initiated two major projects in Guangxi and Hubei, each with an annual production capacity of 2.5 million tons, which are expected to significantly boost production and market presence [4] - The Guangxi project has already produced 100,000 tons of wood pulp and 29,000 tons of specialty paper in 2024, while the Hubei project has produced 93,400 tons of specialty paper and 59,800 tons of self-produced pulp [4] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecasts have been adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.16 billion yuan for 2025, 1.38 billion yuan for 2026, and 1.58 billion yuan for 2027, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [9]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China Dongguan Branch is actively promoting green finance to support the local economy's transition to low-carbon development, with a green loan balance of 249.36 billion yuan as of Q1 2025, reflecting a growth of 7.99% since the beginning of the year, outpacing the overall loan growth rate by 5.27 percentage points [1] Group 1: Financial Support and Policy Tools - A Guangdong-based new energy company received a loan of 10 million yuan from Dongguan Bank, supported by the "Guanlv Rong" small re-loan program, aimed at enhancing green energy supply capabilities [2] - The Dongguan Branch has injected 51.221 billion yuan through structural monetary policy tools in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.496 billion yuan, with a focus on carbon reduction support tools [2] - The "Guanlv Rong" program has disbursed 157 million yuan in small re-loans and facilitated 373 million yuan in "Green Chain" re-discounts, while guiding local banks to issue green bonds totaling 1.5 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Innovative Financial Products - Dongguan Jinzhou Paper Industry Co., Ltd. utilized a carbon emissions rights pledge to secure a loan of 500,000 yuan, demonstrating a new financing model that enhances carbon asset liquidity [3] - The introduction of the "Stable Business Card" by Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank provided 4.5 million yuan to support a marine ranch project, recognized as a 2024 "Green Finance Reform and Innovation Promotion Case" [3] Group 3: Financing Services and Industry Support - In 2024, local banks issued loans totaling 20.43 billion yuan to green manufacturing enterprises, significantly supporting their low-carbon transition projects [4] - The Dongguan Branch established a financing mechanism connecting leading enterprises, cooperative banks, and small and micro enterprises, with a total credit amount of 3.8 billion yuan for the new energy sector [4] - A Guangdong ceramic company received a loan of 1.5 million yuan to implement low-carbon transition technologies, highlighting the financial support for energy structure optimization [4] Group 4: Standards and Guidelines for Low-Carbon Transition - The Dongguan Branch facilitated the release of the "Guangdong Province Ceramic Industry Transition Financial Implementation Guidelines," providing operational guidance for financial support in low-carbon transitions [5] - The first financial loans for the cement industry transition were issued, with 20 million yuan allocated to support a local cement company's transformation efforts [5] - The integration of finance and green initiatives is expected to enable more Dongguan enterprises to advance in their green development and transformation journeys [5]