Group 1 - Morgan Stanley reaffirms its bullish strategy on the Chinese consumer market ahead of the Lunar New Year, focusing on high-end liquor, premium protein (new dairy products and black-haired cattle), key condiments, gold, and the tourism industry [1] - Historical data indicates that the appreciation of the RMB against the USD will enhance returns in the Chinese stock market, with cyclical or growth stocks typically outperforming defensive stocks [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese stock market but emphasizes the need for more refined stock selection, highlighting preferred stocks such as Tencent, Lao Pu Gold, MGM China, TAL Education, Trip.com, Haitian Flavoring, Kweichow Moutai, Mengniu, and Wuliangye [1]

2026年开年，全球金融市场率先奏响"迎春曲"，迎来久违的开门红行情。A股三大指数开年以来累计涨幅超3%，创业板指表现尤为强势；美 股道琼斯工业平均指数一度站上49000点高位，纳斯达克综指同步走高，即便偶有回调仍难掩上行势头；国际金价表现更为亮眼，截至2月10 日，伦敦金现报价已达5042.11美元/盎司，开年以来涨幅逐步扩大，避险与增值属性双重凸显，国内黄金T+D价格也同步攀升至1122.09元/ 克，金店零售价普遍突破1500元/克大关。但这份暖意背后，宏观局势正加速进入"博弈深水区"，特朗普对美联储的施压层层加码，鲍威尔遭 刑事调查的风波持续发酵，1月美联储利率会议如期落幕且维持利率不变，进一步激化白宫与央行的矛盾，"美联储影子银行"热度攀升引发市 场对流动性风险的担忧，再叠加国内持续升温的"存款搬家"浪潮，黄金、美元、债市、A股、美股、港股六大核心资产的走向，不仅取决于短 期利好共振，更受制于长期宏观逻辑的切换，其背后的机遇与风险值得每一位投资者深度审视。 结合上述宏观博弈与市场动态，我们可清晰拆解六大核心资产的后续走向，其逻辑均围绕"美联储政策不确定性""影子银行风险""存款搬家结 构化"三大核心 ...

投资要点 贵金属：金银进一步下跌，但是年内美联储仍将降息支撑贵金属价格 价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4948.00美元/盎司，环比1月30日-33.85美元/盎司，跌幅为-0.68%。周内 伦敦白银价格为74.94美元/盎司，环比1月30日-28.25美元/盎司，跌幅为-27.38%。 来源：中国能源网 华鑫证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：价格方面，周内伦敦黄金价格为4948.00美元/盎司，环比1月30 日-33.85美元/盎司，跌幅为-0.68%。周内伦敦白银价格为74.94美元/盎司，环比1月30日-28.25美元/盎 司，跌幅为-27.38%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 数据方面，美国1月ISM制造业指数52.6，前值47.9，预期48.5。美国1月ADP就业人数变动2.2万人，前 值4.1万人，预期4.5万人。美国1月标普全球服务业PMI终值52.7，前值52.5，预期52.5。美国1月ISM非 制造业指数53.8，前值54.4，预期53.5。美国1月31日当周首次申请失业救济人数为23.1万人，前值20.9 万人，预期21.2万人。 本周多数美联储官员表达了对年内降息的看法。美联储理事米兰表示，美联储今 ...

【中信证券海外策略】 12026年1月29日至2月4日EPFR跟踪的全球资金整体流入发达市场及新兴市场分别为251.65/88.27亿美元。 全球主动资金流入中国市场约7.03亿美元。 全球主动资金流入中国市场约7.03亿美元。 分不同区域主动资金情况看，本周欧洲区域资金流入规模最大，为0.7亿美元。 分行业看，本周中国资产各板块均呈流入趋势，其中信息技术、金融和可选消费板块流入规模最大，分别为 0.94/0.79/0.63亿美元。 2我们测算，2026年1月26日至1月30日，港股通/外资中介/内资中介分别净流入18/113/-118亿港元。 南向资金边际流入游戏、电池、医疗器械等板块；而外资增持黄金、半导体、造纸等板块。 互联网、保险、地产、多元金融、建材获南向及外资的共同青睐。 分不同区域主动资金情况看，本周欧洲区域资金流入规模最大，为0.7亿美元。 分行业看，本周中国资产各板块均呈流入趋势，其中信息技术、金融和可选消费板块流入规模最大，分别为 0.94/0.79/0 【中信证券海外策略】 12026年1月29日至2月4日EPFR跟踪的全球资金整体流入发达市场及新兴市场分别为251.65/88.27亿美 ...

截至2026年2月10日 09:45，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)成分股方面涨跌互现，周六福领涨 2.50%，神宇股份上涨2.34%，江西铜业股份上涨1.98%；菜百股份领跌。黄金股票ETF基金(159322)最 新报价2.03元。 消息面上，黄金价格再度走强，COMEX黄金期货周一收涨2.1%，报5084.2美元/盎司；COMEX白银期 货收涨8%，报83.05美元/盎司。黄金股票ETF基金盘中换手1.46%，成交388.71万元。拉长时间看，截至 2月9日，黄金股票ETF基金近1周日均成交4910.91万元。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数(931238)前十大权重股分别为中金黄 金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、山金国际、招金矿业、湖南黄金、山东黄金、紫金黄金国际、紫 金矿业，前十大权重股合计占比61.69%。 华鑫证券认为，尽管短期贵金属价格有所回调，但美联储仍处于降息周期，CME Fedwatch工具显示 2026年6月和9月各有一次25BP降息概率较高，年内降息预期未变，对黄金价格构成坚实支撑；同时， 美国ISM制造业指数、非制造业指数等数据整体维持扩 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Sichuan Gold has experienced significant fluctuations in its stock price, with a year-to-date increase of 69.85% but a recent decline of 15.59% over the past five trading days [1] - As of February 10, Sichuan Gold's stock price was reported at 47.32 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 19.874 billion yuan [1] - The company has been actively traded, with a total transaction volume of 1.27 billion yuan on February 10, and has appeared on the "龙虎榜" (a list of stocks with significant trading activity) seven times this year [1] Group 2 - Sichuan Gold operates in the precious metals sector, specifically focusing on gold mining and sales, with its main product being gold concentrate [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Sichuan Gold reported a revenue of 788 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 49.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 369 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 87.36% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 336 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing [3] Group 3 - As of September 30, 2025, Sichuan Gold had 35,900 shareholders, a decrease of 18.44% from the previous period, while the average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 22.60% to 8,041 shares [2] - Notable institutional holdings include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the fifth largest shareholder with 5.2015 million shares, and the Gold ETF (517520) as the tenth largest shareholder with 2.7635 million shares, both being new entrants [3]

Core Viewpoint - Hunan Gold's stock price has experienced significant fluctuations, with a year-to-date increase of 64.01% but a recent decline of 5.57% over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of February 10, Hunan Gold's stock price was 34.59 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 720 million CNY and a turnover rate of 1.32%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 54.052 billion CNY [1] - The stock has been on the龙虎榜 (top trading list) five times this year, with the most recent appearance on February 3, where it recorded a net buy of -540 million CNY [1] - Year-to-date, Hunan Gold's stock has increased by 64.01%, with a 5.57% decline in the last five trading days, a 60.44% increase over the last 20 days, and a 59.11% increase over the last 60 days [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Hunan Gold achieved a revenue of 41.194 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 96.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.029 billion CNY, up 54.28% year-on-year [2] - The company has distributed a total of 1.228 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 553 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3] Group 3: Shareholder Structure - As of September 30, 2025, Hunan Gold had 118,300 shareholders, an increase of 14.70% from the previous period, with an average of 13,211 shares held per shareholder, a decrease of 12.81% [2] - The second-largest shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 30.0837 million shares, an increase of 1.8283 million shares from the previous period [4] - New shareholders include the Gold ETF (517520) and the Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold and Jewelry Mixed A Fund (001302), while other funds have reduced their holdings [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [10][12]. Core Views - The demand for copper and aluminum has weakened as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to stable prices in these metals [6][9]. - The gold market is supported by the Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts, which are expected to continue throughout the year [10]. - The report highlights a tightening supply for copper, which is expected to support prices [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) has shown a performance of +3.3% over 1 month, +24.2% over 3 months, and +102.0% over 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index [3]. 2. Price and Inventory Data - Copper prices: LME copper closed at $12,900 per ton, down 4.02% from January 30, while SHFE copper closed at ¥99,810 per ton, down 3.26% [6]. - Aluminum prices: Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices are at ¥23,110 per ton, down ¥1,530 from January 30 [8]. - Inventory levels: LME copper inventory is at 183,275 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 8,300 tons, while SHFE copper inventory is at 248,911 tons, up 15,907 tons [6]. 3. Downstream Demand - The operating rate for domestic refined copper rod production is 69.07%, down 0.47 percentage points, while the operating rate for aluminum profiles is 36.0%, down 8.3 percentage points [8][9]. - The report notes that as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream processing enterprises are beginning to shut down, leading to a decline in demand [9]. 4. Recommendations for Individual Stocks - Recommended stocks in the gold sector include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold International [12]. - In the copper sector, recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Western Mining, and Jincheng Mining [12]. - For aluminum, recommended stocks include Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Tianshan Aluminum [12]. - In the tin sector, recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co. and Huaxi Nonferrous [12].

Group 1: Non-ferrous Metals Industry - The sentiment impact is weakening, and the non-ferrous metal sector is returning to a fundamental phase [1][4] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced plans to strictly control new copper smelting projects and promote the construction of a reserve system [4] - Over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects have been halted, effectively curbing the rapid growth of copper smelting capacity [4] Group 2: Market Overview - The North Exchange market saw an average daily trading volume of 20.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 28.7% week-on-week [8] - The number of qualified investors in the North Exchange market has surpassed 10 million, marking a significant milestone [10] - Despite market adjustments, the long-term allocation value of the North Exchange remains recognized by institutions [10] Group 3: Key Developments - The U.S. is launching a $12 billion critical mineral reserve plan to protect manufacturers from supply chain shocks [5] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, with reserves reaching 7.419 million ounces [6] - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a reassessment of the dollar's outlook by investors [7]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.04%, the S&P 500 up 0.47%, and the Nasdaq up 0.9% [1] Sector Performance - Most large tech stocks saw gains, with Oracle rising over 9%, Microsoft up 3%, and Nvidia up 2.5% [2] - The cryptocurrency mining, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals sectors performed well, with Vista Gold up over 14%, Hut 8 up over 7%, Pan American Silver up over 6%, Alcoa and Royal Gold both up over 5%, and Southern Copper up over 4% [2] - Conversely, the department store and insurance brokerage sectors showed weakness, with Macy's and Kohl's both down over 5%, and the American Reinsurance Group down over 2% [2] Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.12%, with Century Internet and Pony.ai among the top gainers, while Li Auto and Bilibili experienced declines [2]