Core Insights - The SPDR S&P Kensho New Economies Composite ETF (KOMP US) targets U.S.-listed equities in "New Economies" subsectors such as robotics, AI, automation, and connectivity [1] - The underlying index employs a systematic screening process for investability and liquidity, with a modified equal weighting approach and semi-annual rebalancing [1] - Each subsector is weighted by its trailing Sharpe ratio, allowing faster-maturing themes to receive higher weight while early-stage themes are still represented [1] Portfolio Construction Methodology - The Composite aggregates all eligible subsector indices, with issuer weights derived from underlying subsector memberships and caps [1] - Country and sector exposures are determined by the taxonomy breadth rather than market-cap dominance [1] - The methodology includes lifecycle-aware subsector weighting, periodic reconstitution, and semi-annual rebalances to balance diversification, capacity, and turnover control [1]

Core Insights - The article discusses the rising interest in local AI agents, particularly highlighting the Claude Cowork and Step AI Desktop Partner products, which focus on local task execution and file processing [2][3][4] - The interview with the product lead of Step AI reveals the strategic differences between their product and Claude Cowork, emphasizing features like "global memory" and user experience enhancements [9][10] Product Features and Strategies - Step AI Desktop Partner is available for both Mac and Windows, currently in a free trial phase [5] - The product aims to explore diverse user scenarios and enhance agent capabilities, focusing on making agents more efficient and cost-effective [12][11] - The "Skill" feature is introduced to improve agent performance by providing verified workflows, which enhances stability and effectiveness [12][29] User Engagement and Education - There is a significant gap in user awareness regarding the potential applications of AI agents in their work, with many users unaware of how to utilize these tools effectively [13][14] - The "Miaoji" feature is designed to simplify user interaction by saving common commands and processes, thereby lowering the barrier to entry for non-technical users [29][30] Market Trends and User Behavior - The article notes that the current penetration of AI agents is still in its early stages, with higher adoption rates observed overseas [12][13] - Users often need prompting to realize the capabilities of AI agents, indicating a need for better user education and proactive engagement strategies [34][38] Development and Future Directions - The product is seen as an exploratory innovation under the AI + terminal strategy, aimed at validating user scenarios and technical implementations [16][17] - Future developments will focus on enhancing the agent's proactive capabilities and integrating user feedback to refine the product [48][49]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged past $90 per ounce, reaching a historical high of $94, marking a 31% increase in the first two weeks of 2026, the strongest start to a year since 1983 [1][3] Monetary Revaluation - The revaluation of silver's monetary attributes is driven by challenges to the credibility of the US dollar and doubts about the Federal Reserve's policy independence, leading to increased demand for silver as a hedge against inflation [3][5] - A domestic precious metals investment institution reported a 200% year-on-year increase in offline silver bar sales in the first week of 2026, indicating a shift in investor focus from gold to silver [3] Macro Policy Shift - Easing inflation pressures and a softening labor market in the US have shifted the Federal Reserve's focus towards full employment, reinforcing expectations for interest rate cuts [5][7] - The anticipated rate cuts have lowered the opportunity cost of holding silver, attracting significant allocation of funds into silver ETFs, with one major fund's silver ETF surpassing 5 billion yuan, a 35% increase from the end of last year [5][7] Industrial Supply-Demand Dynamics - Silver's unique conductivity makes it an essential material for industries such as renewable energy and AI infrastructure, with a persistent supply shortage since 2021 [7][9] - A domestic photovoltaic company plans to increase its production capacity by 40% in 2026, leading to a 25% increase in silver procurement prices due to long-term supply agreements [7][9] Summary - The combination of monetary revaluation, macroeconomic policy shifts, and industrial supply-demand dynamics continues to drive silver's value reassessment, making a move towards the $100 mark a likely event [9]

Core Viewpoint - The dialogue emphasizes a pragmatic and optimistic investment approach, focusing on identifying and leveraging "expectation gaps" in low-attention assets as key investment opportunities for 2026 [4][6]. Group 1: Market Outlook for 2026 - Investor sentiment towards Chinese assets is warming, with expectations for a "slow bull" market emerging as macroeconomic and geopolitical concerns become less pressing [5][9]. - The market logic is shifting from valuation recovery to profit-driven growth, necessitating a more nuanced understanding of industry and company performance [5][9]. - Liquidity is expected to be a significant supportive factor for the stock market, with both institutional and individual investors showing increased willingness to allocate funds to equities [13][14]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The focus for the next 6-12 months is on identifying "expectation gaps" in various sectors, particularly in low-attention assets that have not been fully recognized by the market [6][16]. - Key areas of interest include AI applications, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumer trends, with a particular emphasis on structural opportunities that arise from supply-demand constraints [7][22]. - The commodity bull market narrative is being driven by AI and material demand, with potential investment opportunities in mining and exploration sectors expected to yield significant returns [25]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The concept of "new consumption" is evolving, with structural changes in consumer demographics and preferences creating new investment opportunities [27][28]. - The "people, place, and goods" framework is used to analyze consumption opportunities, highlighting the importance of understanding consumer behavior and market connections [28][29]. - Sustainable growth in consumer sectors is anticipated, particularly in areas that cater to younger and older demographics, as well as products that enhance personal satisfaction [30][31]. Group 4: Risk Management and Investment Strategy - The importance of recognizing crowded trades and consensus risks is emphasized, as these can lead to market volatility when expectations shift [32]. - Developing investment contingency plans and maintaining a proactive approach to market changes are crucial for navigating uncertainties [33]. - The company advocates for a team-based investment approach, leveraging diverse expertise to adapt to complex market scenarios [37].

Core Viewpoint - China's technological advancements are driving a stock rally, despite a fragile economy, with significant enthusiasm for homegrown technologies leading the market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Chinese tech shares have surged nearly 13% this month, with Hong Kong-listed tech firms climbing almost 6%, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 [2]. - A basket of 33 Chinese AI stocks has seen their combined market value increase by approximately $732 billion over the past year, with further upside expected as their market capitalization is only 6.5% of the US's [8]. Group 2: Technological Developments - Progress in various sectors, including commercial rockets, robotics, and flying cars, is contributing to the bullish sentiment in Chinese equities [2]. - The adoption of generative AI has surged among major Chinese internet companies, such as Alibaba and Tencent, following DeepSeek's AI breakthrough [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Anticipation of DeepSeek's new AI model release and China's upcoming five-year economic plan focusing on technological self-reliance may further bolster market confidence [3][14]. - Analysts predict that the next major AI breakthrough will occur at the application layer, with China well-positioned to lead due to its diverse user cases [10]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - Some investors remain optimistic about the technology sector's prospects, citing advantages like a low-cost base and strong state support [12]. - The expected release of DeepSeek's R2 model may act as a catalyst for further disruption in the sector, reinforcing China's competitive stance against US AI dominance [13]. Group 5: Valuation Concerns - The recent stock rally has raised concerns about stretched valuations, with some companies trading at significantly higher multiples compared to the Nasdaq 100 [12].

Core Insights - The 2025 Hurun China AI Companies Top 50 list highlights the growth and valuation of AI-focused companies in China, with a significant increase in the number of AI chip companies due to tightening U.S. export controls on high-end AI chips [1][2] Company Rankings - Cambricon leads the list with a valuation of 630 billion RMB, marking a 165% increase from the previous year [1][2] - Moore Threads ranks second with a valuation of 310 billion RMB, achieving a 182% year-on-year revenue growth [3] - Muxi ranks third with a valuation of 250 billion RMB, recognized as one of the first high-end GPU companies to achieve full domestic production [3] - iFlytek, a leader in intelligent voice technology, ranks fourth with a valuation of 130 billion RMB [4] - Horizon Robotics ranks fifth with a valuation of 120 billion RMB, focusing on automotive AI chips [4] Market Trends - The list shows a total of 21 non-listed companies, with the entry threshold raised to 9.5 billion RMB, an increase of 3.5 billion RMB from last year [1] - The average valuation of listed companies is 54 billion RMB, which is 2.4 times higher than the previous year [1] - The number of AI chip companies on the list has increased to 14, up from 5 last year, indicating a shift towards domestic AI chip production [1] Geographic Distribution - Beijing leads with 19 companies on the list, followed by Shanghai with 14, and Shenzhen with 6, indicating a concentration of AI talent and resources in first-tier cities [1] Sector Breakdown - The majority of companies on the list are focused on AI chip hardware, with 14 companies in this category, reflecting the growing importance of AI infrastructure [5] - Other sectors include data analysis and decision-making with 11 companies, and content generation with 8 companies [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company anticipates five major investment opportunities for 2026 while warning of three significant risks [1][2]. Investment Opportunities - **Systematic Revaluation of Low-Valuation Stocks**: The company believes that low-valuation stocks are due for a systematic revaluation, as the risk-free interest rate in China has declined rapidly over the past three years, yet valuations have not adjusted accordingly. With a significant amount of household deposits maturing in 2026, some funds are expected to flow into low-valuation sectors, similar to the valuation recovery seen in the South Korean stock market [2]. - **AI Sector Transition**: The company predicts that the AI sector will shift from a focus on computing power to applications and edge computing. It plans to invest in long-term opportunities such as autonomous driving and AI healthcare, while also exploring new terminal devices like smart glasses [2][3]. - **Stabilization of Consumer Spending**: Following a decline in household wealth due to the real estate downturn in 2025, the company expects consumer wealth to stabilize in 2026, supported by growth in deposits and other assets. Early signs of recovery are already visible in high-end consumption and luxury goods [2]. - **Selective Opportunities in "Anti-Competition" Trends**: The company suggests focusing on industries with simple competitive landscapes and fewer players, as opposed to sectors like photovoltaics and certain chemical sub-industries, which may experience delayed effects from anti-competition measures [3]. - **Local Market Development for Export Companies**: Companies that focus on local market service and job creation will likely see sustainable growth. Southeast Asia is highlighted as a key area due to its large population and cost advantages [3]. Risks - **Reversal of AI Trends**: The company identifies the potential reversal of trends in the AI industry as a significant risk for 2026. If application development does not progress, the investment logic in computing power may collapse, leading to volatility in global tech stocks [3]. - **Valuation Reversion in Small and Micro-Cap Stocks**: There is a risk of valuation reversion in small and micro-cap stocks, which currently have a transaction share far exceeding international norms. This could lead to concentrated releases of valuation pressure in the future [3]. - **Exchange Rate Fluctuation Risks**: The company warns of potential increased volatility in global currency exchange rates in 2026, which could erode returns from overseas investments due to currency losses [3].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese tech shares are experiencing significant growth driven by advancements in various sectors, including AI, robotics, and flying cars, with notable performance in January 2026 [1][18]. Group 1: Market Performance - An onshore Nasdaq-like tech gauge has increased by almost 13% this month, while Hong Kong-listed Chinese tech firms have risen nearly 6%, both outperforming the Nasdaq 100 [1][18]. - The combined market value of 33 Chinese AI stocks tracked by Jefferies Financial Group has expanded by approximately $732 billion over the past year, with China's AI market capitalization representing only 6.5% of the US's [9][18]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - Enthusiasm for homegrown technologies has been the primary driver of China's equities bull run since April, despite challenges in the housing market and weak consumption [2][18]. - The rollout of a new AI model by DeepSeek and the unveiling of a five-year economic blueprint focusing on technological self-reliance are expected to further support market momentum [2][15][18]. - Chinese firms are accelerating efforts to develop AI models following DeepSeek's success, with generative AI adoption surging among major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent [5][6][18]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - Investors are optimistic about the technology sector's prospects due to China's low-cost base and strong state support, with expectations that the release of DeepSeek's R2 model could disrupt the sector again [14][18]. - Recent listing debuts of Chinese AI-related companies have shown significant gains, encouraging more firms to enter public markets [10][18]. - Analysts predict that the next major breakthrough in AI will occur at the application layer, with China well-positioned to lead this evolution due to its diverse user cases [11][18]. Group 4: Valuation Concerns - The rapid rally in tech stocks has raised concerns about stretched valuations, with some companies trading at high multiples, such as Cambricon Technologies at about 120 times forward earnings [13][18]. - Beijing's decision to tighten margin financing indicates growing unease with speculative excess in the technology sector [13][18].

Core Insights - The overall trend among high-performing funds is to maintain high positions while adjusting their holdings towards sectors like AI-related industries, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics [1][2] Fund Performance and Adjustments - Several high-performing funds have significantly increased their scale due to inflows and rising net values, with notable examples including Huafu New Energy Fund, which grew from 1.513 billion to 4.162 billion yuan by the end of 2025 [2] - The Rongtong Industry Trend Selected Stock Fund had an equity investment ratio of 93.09% by the end of 2025, achieving over 100% returns [2] - The top ten holdings of the Rongtong fund included new entries such as Yuanjie Technology and Zijin Mining by the end of 2025 [2] Investment Focus Areas - Funds are focusing on five core investment directions: AI infrastructure, AI applications, intelligent robotics and driving, domestic AI supply chains, and edge AI [3] - The Jin Xin Transformation Innovation Growth Fund is concentrating on military and aerospace sectors, as well as chips, with a positive outlook on the military sector driven by satellite communication and gas turbines [3] AI Sector Insights - The AI sector remains a focal point, with managers indicating a shift towards AI energy and supply chain security, recognizing energy as a potential bottleneck for AI expansion [4] - The demand for internet AI applications is surging, leading to increased capital expenditures from internet companies and a rapid rollout of self-developed ASIC chips [4] Cautionary Perspectives - Some fund managers express caution regarding the AI sector, noting that after significant price increases, valuations are no longer low, and some stocks reflect overly optimistic growth expectations [5] - High valuations imply stricter performance requirements, making the sector more susceptible to market sentiment and macroeconomic changes, which could increase volatility [6]

行业走势图 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2025-01-17 2025-02-17 2025-03-17 2025-04-17 2025-05-17 2025-06-17 2025-07-17 2025-08-17 2025-09-17 2025-10-17 2025-11-17 2025-12-17 恒生指数 数据来源：聚源 2026 年 01 月 18 日 相关研究报告 投资评级：看好（维持） 《从 Gemini 到千问，看好大模型支付 闭环下的商业价值提升—港股行业点 评报告》-2026.1.15 《英伟达开源 Alpamayo，禾赛加入"朋 友圈"—行业周报》-2026.1.11 《昆仑芯启动港股 IPO，关注 MiniMax 多模态机会—行业周报》-2026.1.4 | ——行业周报 | | --- | | 初敏（分析师） | 杨哲（分析师） | 荀月（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | | chumin@kysec.cn | zhangke1@kysec.cn | yangzhe@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522 ...