Market Overview - The A-share market shows strong upward momentum, with a focus on sectors such as hydropower construction, rare earths, and military industry [4][8] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6,846.04 billion, with a PE ratio of 12.65 and a PB ratio of 1.31 [3] - The Shenzhen Component Index has a total market capitalization of 2,382.45 billion, with a PE ratio of 21.24 and a PB ratio of 2.25 [3] Economic Insights - In the first half of 2025, China attracted foreign investment of 423.23 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% [20] - The number of small and medium-sized enterprises in Hunan Province has surpassed 2.13 million, an increase of 156,200 compared to the same period last year [48] Industry Dynamics - The clinical trial for the African swine fever subunit vaccine has been approved, marking a significant step towards commercialization [31] - The first domestic cat trivalent vaccine has received approval for new veterinary drug registration, indicating progress in domestic pet health products [33] - The lithium battery industry in China saw a shipment volume increase of over 40% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a total shipment of 776 GWh [37][39] Company Updates - Sanqi Interactive Entertainment has appointed Zeng Kaitian as the new general manager, indicating a leadership change within the company [43][44] - Feiwo Technology has initiated its first share buyback, repurchasing 50,000 shares as part of its stock incentive plan [45][46]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On July 18, 2025, China's A-share market showed a slight upward trend. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.50% to 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 10913.84 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.34% to 2277.15 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 1.5711 trillion yuan, an increase of 31.7 billion yuan from the previous day [3]. - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market showed a strengthening trend. The weekly increases of the main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 futures were 1.21%, 0.56%, 1.36%, and 1.48% respectively [3]. - Last week, 30-year and 10-year treasury bond futures rose, while 5-year and 2-year treasury bond futures fell [4]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - The National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference held a symposium on the analysis of the macroeconomic situation in the first half of 2025. Some members put forward suggestions on stabilizing and activating the capital market, promoting technological innovation in the private sector, and other aspects [8]. - From 2020 to 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased from 39.1 trillion yuan to 48.3 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5%. It is expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan this year [8]. - In the first half of this year, central state-owned enterprises achieved an added value of 5.2 trillion yuan and completed fixed - asset investment of 2 trillion yuan. In the second half of the year, they will focus on developing new - quality productive forces [8]. - From July 12 - 18, there were 97 domestic investment and financing events, a 21.25% increase from the previous week. The total disclosed financing amount was about 5.041 billion yuan, an 8.85% increase. The artificial intelligence field had the highest disclosed financing amount, about 2.486 billion yuan [9]. - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.7268 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1.2011 trillion yuan. This week, 1.7268 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases, 200 billion yuan of MLF, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits are due [9]. 3. Valuation Analysis - As of July 18, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 13.32 times, with a percentile of 72.16%, and the PB was 1.40 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 11.33 times, with a percentile of 82.75%, and the PB was 1.25 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.1 times, with a percentile of 61.96%, and the PB was 2.23 times [12]. - The report introduced two formulas for calculating the stock - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [19]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF2509) closed at 4041.80 points on July 18, with a weekly increase of 1.21%. The current low risk - free interest rate and reduced supply of high - yield risk - free assets have created favorable conditions for incremental funds to enter the market. The market is expected to continue a moderately strong trend this week, but there may be insufficient momentum for a significant upward movement in the short term. Traders are advised to control risks [28].

Group 1: Service Trade Growth - The service trade in China has shown remarkable performance in the first half of the year, driven by innovation and diverse development models [1][10] - A clear growth trajectory is observed in service trade, with new business models emerging, such as data processing and cultural products gaining global popularity [1][10] Group 2: Data Processing Industry - In Shanghai Lingang, over 20 companies are engaged in "data processing," showcasing a significant concentration of this industry [7][9] - The data processing sector requires high artistic understanding and animation rendering skills, with processed data sent back to Italy for further use [3][5] - A complete industrial chain centered around "data processing" is rapidly forming in Shanghai Lingang, with 33 service institutions established in key areas like data technology and infrastructure [9] Group 3: Gaming Industry - The gaming industry is a crucial segment of service trade, with Chinese games opening new markets through innovative designs and technologies [10][14] - Shenzhen has over 4,000 gaming companies, creating a robust ecosystem that supports game exports [14][16] - A new game developed by a small team has gained significant traction in Thailand, attracting 20,000 daily users due to its cultural elements [10][12] Group 4: Knowledge-Intensive Service Trade - Knowledge-intensive service trade is becoming a core driver of growth, with service import and export totals reaching 32,543.6 billion yuan, a 7.7% increase [23][25] - The export scale of knowledge-intensive services is expected to continue expanding, with projected growth from 25,068.5 billion yuan in 2022 to 28,965.2 billion yuan in 2024 [25] - New business models in digital culture, online education, and cross-border healthcare are accelerating the internationalization of service trade [25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media internet industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The official release and open-sourcing of Kimi K2 is expected to drive significant advancements in domestic large models and AI applications, particularly in sectors such as gaming, education, video, e-commerce, toys, and marketing [4][5] - The AI application landscape is evolving, with notable developments in AI-driven e-commerce live streaming, which has shown a GMV exceeding 55 million yuan, indicating a breakthrough in operational efficiency [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI-generated video technology and the active engagement of platforms in enhancing short video ecosystems, suggesting a focus on companies involved in short video production and marketing [7][8] Summary by Sections AI Applications - Kimi K2, a foundational model with 1 trillion total parameters and 32 billion active parameters, demonstrates superior capabilities in coding, tool usage, and mathematical reasoning, indicating a leap in AI application potential [5] - The report highlights the integration of AI in e-commerce live streaming, which is expected to lower operational costs and extend live streaming durations, thus improving efficiency [6] Gaming Sector - The summer gaming season is anticipated to see new product launches and significant updates to existing titles, with a focus on the performance of leading gaming companies in AI-enhanced gaming experiences [8] Internet Sector - The report discusses the regulatory environment affecting the internet sector, particularly in food delivery and instant retail, suggesting a shift towards more sustainable business practices and innovation rather than price competition [9] Film and Television - The summer film season is projected to boost box office revenues, with a focus on key film producers and cinema ticketing companies [10] - The report notes the strong performance of specific films and the overall market dynamics, indicating a healthy recovery in the film industry [41] Market Overview - The report provides a market recap, noting the performance of major indices and the media sector's ranking among various industries during the specified period [15][16]

Group 1 - The A-share gaming sector experienced an initial rise, with Baotong Technology increasing by over 6% [1] - Other companies in the sector, including Giant Network, G-bits, Perfect World, Glacier Network, and Kaiying Network, also saw gains [1]

来源：中信证券 —研大势— 丨国内经济表现较有韧性，政策方向明确。 ❶二季度经济好于预期，经济平稳显韧性。上半年GDP同比5.3%，其中二季度GDP同比5.2%、好于预 期的5.1%。国内经济表现出较好韧性的同时，结构上仍呈现一定分化，6月出口同比5.8%、明显强于预 期的3.2%，在出口回升支撑下，6月工业增加值同比6.8%、好于预期的5.5%，但6月社零消费同比 4.8%、低于预期的5.6%，1-6月固定投资同比2.8%、低于预期的3.7%，指向内需景气仍有待提升。 ❷短期政策留有空间相机抉择，提振内需和反内卷方向明确。鉴于上半年GDP增速好于预期，预计7月 底政治局会有新政策、但不至于强刺激，政策储备工具将更多相机抉择，在下半年必要时出台。往后 看，下半年"抢出口"热度将逐步降温，提振内需的必要性进一步提升，央行等六部门联合印发《关于金 融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》，可关注后续相关政策性金融工具的落地。同时在供给端，反内卷 政策有望提振价格、改善盈利，预计"十五五"规划或展示具体政策路径。 丨中美贸易处于改善稳态期，外部扰动有限。 ❶中美关系释放较多积极信号，外部干扰可控。 近期，中美双方有关贸易谈 ...

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Group 1 - The current market stage is characterized by "asymmetric upside potential and locked downside risk," indicating that while downside risks are contained, there is significant room for upside gains [1][2] - The People's Bank of China has provided assurances for sufficient re-lending support to financial institutions, which is expected to bolster market liquidity [1][2] - Large state-owned insurance companies are mandated to invest 30% of their new premiums in A-shares starting from 2025, suggesting a gradual increase in insurance capital allocation to the market [1][2] Group 2 - The recent performance of cyclical stocks may signal the onset of a mid-term bull market rally, as these stocks typically underperform in the early stages of a bull market but gain traction later [2][3] - Historical data from previous bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) shows that cyclical stocks lag in the early phases but become more active as the market matures, primarily due to valuation advantages [2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the resistance level of 3450 points, indicating a positive feedback loop of incremental capital inflow into the market [3][4] Group 3 - The market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend, driven by fundamental improvements and liquidity dynamics, with a focus on sectors such as domestic consumption, technology independence, and resource stocks [3][4] - The upcoming Central Urban Work Conference is anticipated to address urban renewal and village renovation, which may influence market expectations regarding real estate policies [4]

中信证券：出海可能是新的方向 A股继港股后也逐步转为增量市场，最重要的是不断寻找新的存在预期差且未来能够形成资金共识的板块，半 年报季后的出海可能是新的方向。从半年报预告来看，出海依旧是强劲的业绩超预期线索之一。从过去几年的 经验来看，出海对企业ROE和利润率的抬升作用明显，出海本身也是积极"反内卷"并提高利润率的一种形式； 从未来的趋势来看，一旦讲通全球收入敞口逻辑，会带来股票端配置的稳定性和估值溢价，这是新兴市场跨入 成熟市场的必经之路。 今年出海作为业绩最好的线索之一，却因为贸易战导致行情剧烈波动且一直呈现零散的自下而上驱动状态，随 着8月后贸易战预期逐步稳定、半年报季结束，出海可能会再次形成板块性行情。配置上，从当下到半年报季 结束，依然建议围绕恒科、有色、通信、创新药、军工和游戏轮动，当下更偏恒生科技。 国泰海通：科技主题仍是主线 6月以来主题交易热度持续回升，热点主题结构分化。海外云厂商业绩指引乐观叠加英伟达CEO黄仁勋来华的 积极表态，维持推升AI产业相关主题热度且有显著资金净流入，近期活跃的创新药主题再度走强；"反内卷"政 策催化密集，但市场强分歧下股价波动加剧，稳定币与跨境支付主题有所回调。 ...

Group 1 - The current price recovery in China may reshape the global demand cycle, output cycle, profit distribution, and capital flow [2][12] - The global advantage of China's output system is reflected in asset pricing, leading to a systematic PB (Price-to-Book) adjustment, with Chinese assets expected to rise rapidly and the RMB (Renminbi) likely to appreciate [2][12] - Focus is on non-bank financials, low PB stocks, Hang Seng Technology, and military industry, while paying attention to long-term bonds and micro-market risks [3][12] Group 2 - In June, China's exports showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, improving from 4.7% previously, and exports to the US saw a significant month-on-month increase of 32.44% [11][12] - The report indicates a broad recovery in commodity prices in China, suggesting a potential restructuring of globalization, moving away from the previous US-dominated profit monopoly [12] - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.84% and the Hang Seng Technology Index increasing by 5.53% [13][15] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced a broad rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.69% and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [19][31] - The healthcare sector outperformed, with significant gains in cancer treatment concepts and biopharmaceuticals [18][31] - High-end manufacturing sectors showed strong relative performance, while financial and real estate sectors faced declines [31][32] Group 4 - The report highlights a divergence in foreign capital index futures positions, with IC turning into a net short position and IF expanding its net short position, while IH remained stable [41][42] - The onshore and offshore RMB swap yields have declined, with the 10-year US Treasury yield surpassing the yields of Chinese bonds and swaps [45][46] Group 5 - Upcoming key focus includes the US M2 money supply and new home sales data [47][49]