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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:绿色金融与新能源-20250520
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 02:07
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The contradiction in nickel ore provides a bottom - support, while the economics of conversion production may limit the upside valuation [2]. - Stainless steel: The cost bottom space is clear, but there is a lack of substantial driving force for upward movement [2][5]. - Lithium carbonate: The ore price has dropped significantly again, and the weak operation may continue [2][11]. - Industrial silicon: Upstream production is gradually resuming, leading to a supply - demand surplus [2][14]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weak, and there is a downward driving force in the market [2][15]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950, down 15 from T - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 123,850, down 210 from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and spreads also showed different changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia adjusted the resource tax rates for nickel products; Canada's Ontario province may stop exporting nickel to the US; new nickel - iron projects in Indonesia entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; the Philippines is discussing a nickel - ore export ban [5][6][8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 61,180, down 620 from T - 1. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 62,580, also down 620 from T - 1. Other data including trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products in the industrial chain all showed declines [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased. A wildfire in Canada threatened the Tanco lithium mine [11][13]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2507 closing price was 8,130, down 190 from T. The PS2506 closing price was 37,150, down 1,300 from T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, spreads, and prices of related products in the industrial chain showed various trends [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US launched anti - dumping and anti - subsidy investigations on imported metal silicon from several countries [15][17]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; stainless - steel trend intensity: 0 [10]. - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: - 1 [13]. - Industrial silicon trend intensity: - 2; polysilicon trend intensity: - 1 [17].
镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250519
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 01:47
Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated May 19, 2025 [1] Core Views Bullish Factors - Tight supply of nickel ore in Indonesia has pushed up ore prices, strengthening cost-side support [3] - High spot premiums indicate relatively strong spot demand [3] Bearish Factors - Continuous accumulation of pure nickel social inventory, with high levels in SHFE nickel and LME inventories [3] - Slowing consumption growth in the new energy sector and a decline in the proportion of ternary batteries have weakened nickel demand [3] Trading Advisory Views - The fundamentals are mixed. In the short term, it should be treated as oscillating with a slight upward bias. Attention should be paid to the cost support at the ore end and the marginal changes in inventory [3] Market Data Nickel Futures - SHFE Nickel Main Contract: Latest value 124,060 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 200 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.16% [4] - SHFE Nickel Continuous 1: Latest value 124,230 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,900 yuan, weekly decrease rate of -1.51% [4] - SHFE Nickel Continuous 2: Latest value 124,430 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,860 yuan, weekly decrease rate of -1.47% [4] - SHFE Nickel Continuous 3: Latest value 124,660 yuan/ton, weekly decrease of 1,780 yuan, weekly decrease rate of -1.47% [4] - LME Nickel 3M: Latest value 15,805 US dollars/ton, weekly decrease of 45 US dollars, weekly decrease rate of -1.41% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - Stainless Steel Main Contract: Latest value 12,965 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 35 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0% [4] - Stainless Steel Continuous 1: Latest value 12,965 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 75 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.58% [4] - Stainless Steel Continuous 2: Latest value 13,005 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 75 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.58% [4] - Stainless Steel Continuous 3: Latest value 13,025 yuan/ton, weekly increase of 60 yuan, weekly increase rate of 0.46% [4] Other Data - Nickel Futures: Open interest decreased by 22.4% to 55,628 lots; trading volume decreased by 22.12% to 124,511 lots; warehouse receipts increased by 1.20% to 23,501 tons; main contract basis decreased by 52.17% to -825 yuan/ton [4] - Stainless Steel Futures: Open interest increased by 0.45% to 125,581 lots; trading volume decreased by 20.49% to 94,985 lots; warehouse receipts decreased by 1.48% to 157,878 tons; main contract basis increased by 3.85% to 675 yuan/ton [4] - Spot Nickel: Jinchuan Nickel, Imported Nickel, 1 Electrolytic Nickel, and Nickel Beans all decreased by 0.16%, and Electrowon Nickel decreased by 0.12% [4] - Inventory: Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 63 tons to 44,151 tons; LME nickel inventory decreased by 3,924 tons to 195,222 tons; stainless steel social inventory decreased by 8.4 tons to 980.7 tons; nickel pig iron inventory increased by 1,158 tons to 29,554.5 tons [4][6] Data Charts Nickel - Nickel internal and external market trends [8] - Nickel spot average price [11] - China's refined nickel monthly production seasonality [13] - China's primary nickel monthly total supply including imports seasonality [13] - Domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) seasonality [14] - LME nickel inventory seasonality [14] - Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) price [15] - China's port nickel ore inventory by port seasonality [15] Nickel Iron - Ni≥14% Indonesian high-nickel pig iron (arrival duty-paid) average price [17][19] - China's nickel iron monthly production seasonality [18] - China's 8 - 12% nickel pig iron ex-factory price (national average) [19] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality [20] Downstream Nickel Sulfate - Profit margin seasonality of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans [22][23] - Profit seasonality of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China [22][23] - Average price of battery-grade nickel sulfate [24] - Premium of battery-grade nickel sulfate [24] - China's nickel sulfate monthly production (metal tons) [25] - Ternary precursor monthly production capacity seasonality [25] Stainless Steel - Profit margin seasonality of China's 304 stainless steel cold-rolled coils [26] - Stainless steel monthly production seasonality [27] - Stainless steel inventory seasonality [28][29]
锂价进入磨底区间,关税下调抢出口或提振需求
China Securities· 2025-05-18 15:05
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the lithium sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3]. Core Insights - Lithium prices have entered a bottoming phase, with recent tariff reductions between China and the US potentially boosting demand for lithium carbonate and related products [1]. - Domestic lithium carbonate production is projected to reach approximately 75,500 tons in May, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 20.7% [1]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 276,000 tons, with a month-on-month increase of 39.7% [1]. - The report highlights a significant year-on-year growth in new energy vehicle sales, with a 48.3% increase in production and sales in April [1]. - The recent decline in lithium futures prices to 61,800 CNY/ton and spot prices to 64,500 CNY/ton indicates a challenging market environment, but the underlying demand from the automotive sector remains strong [1]. Summary by Sections Lithium Market - The average market price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 63,700 CNY/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.39%, while battery-grade lithium hydroxide has decreased by 1.5% to 66,000 CNY/ton [2][13]. - Supply remains stable with high operating rates among self-owned mining companies, although some recycling enterprises have reduced production due to cost pressures [2][14]. - Demand from downstream sectors is high, but growth rates are slowing, with many companies focusing on inventory consumption rather than new purchases [2][14]. Nickel Market - The LME nickel price has decreased by 1.0% to 15,648 CNY/ton, while SHFE nickel inventory has dropped by 1.1% to 22,300 tons [17][19]. - Domestic nickel sulfate production is expected to be 31,000 tons, reflecting a decrease in operating rates due to cost pressures [18]. Rare Earth & Magnetic Materials - Rare earth prices have shown an upward trend, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide averaging 436,000 CNY/ton, a 3.07% increase [21]. - Supply expectations are declining, with most upstream separation enterprises maintaining normal production levels [24]. - Demand is gradually releasing, with improved expectations for exports due to reduced tariffs, although concerns about export controls remain [24].
镍价再度回落,现货成交一般
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 01:34
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, the overall supply of nickel elements is in surplus, with significant upward pressure but cost support at the bottom. It is expected to show a weak oscillatory trend in the near - term range, and the mid - to long - term strategy is to sell and hedge on rallies [3]. - For the stainless - steel market, although the price rebounded due to the impact of the Philippine nickel ore export ban and tariff adjustments, the overall supply of stainless steel is in surplus, with large upward pressure. It is expected to oscillate within a range in the near term, and the mid - to long - term strategy is also to sell and hedge on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main nickel contract 2506 opened at 126,100 yuan/ton and closed at 123,600 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.64% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 137,729 lots, and the open interest was 63,702 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract showed a downward trend. The trading volume and open interest increased slightly compared to the previous trading day. China's social financing scale and new RMB loans from January to April were lower than market expectations, while the M2 money supply growth rate increased by 1 percentage point in April. In the spot market, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased slightly in the morning, but the nickel price fell again during the day. Downstream enterprises mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the overall spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums of various brands were mostly stable. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 205 tons to 23,344 tons, and LME nickel inventories increased by 714 tons to 199,146 tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On May 15, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2506 opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,995 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 128,580 lots, and the open interest was 127,690 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract also showed a downward trend. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, and the open interest decreased. The shortage of nickel ore supply still exists. The domestic trade premium for nickel ore in May (Phase II) is expected to remain at + 26 - 27, and the domestic trade base price has increased by 0.65 - 1 US dollars, with the overall price rising slightly. There were no new nickel - iron transactions recently. In the spot market, the stainless - steel price on the futures market fell, the inquiry and trading atmosphere weakened significantly, and the transactions were mainly small orders for rigid demand. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,300 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium for 304/2B was 305 - 505 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 941.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Cross - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [6].
新能源及有色金属日报:出口订单大增,不锈钢价格连续上涨-20250515
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 05:17
市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 出口订单大增 不锈钢价格连续上涨 镍品种 2025-05-15日沪镍主力合约2506开于123230元/吨,收于125230元/吨,较前一交易日收盘变化0.80%,当日成交量为 136563手,持仓量为63077手。 沪镍主力合约夜盘跳空低开后振荡上涨,日盘开盘后继续振荡上涨,午后走平,收大阳线。成交量较上个交易日 大幅减少,持仓量有所减少。中国1-4月社会融资规模增量16.34万亿元,比上年同期多3.61万亿元,市场预估为16.58 万亿元,1-3月为15.18万亿元。中国1-4月新增人民币贷款10.06万亿元,预估为10.47万亿元,1-3月为9.77万亿元。 4月末货币供应量M2同比增长8%,较上月提高1个百分点。现货市场方面,金川镍早盘报价较上个交易日上涨约1075 元/吨,市场主流品牌报价均出现相应上调,日内镍价再度上幅反弹,下游企业刚需采购为主,精炼镍现货成交整 体有所好转,各品牌现货升贴水多数持稳。其中金川镍升水变化-50元/吨至2150元/吨,进口镍升水变化50元/吨至 200元/吨,镍豆升水为 -450元/吨。前一交易日沪镍仓单量为2 ...
镍日报-20250514
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-14 05:27
行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 14 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 镍观点: 伴随市场对中美贸易紧张氛围好转预期的逐步消化,日内有色板块多震荡运 行为主,沪镍继前日大涨之后今日跌幅较为显著,主力低开低走报收于 123860, 下跌 1.52%,指数总持仓增加 12924 至 175129 手。现货升贴水总体保持稳定,日 内金川升水 2200 元/吨,俄镍升水报 150。基本面上,镍矿价格仍受益于印尼上 调特许权使用费政策保持偏强,5 月份下半期 HMA 报 15415 美元/吨,上涨 366 美 元/吨,对应 H ...
盘面证伪禁矿消息,沪镍维持滚动做空
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 14:31
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel: Rolling short [1] - Stainless steel: Hold [1] - Zinc: Bearish outlook [3] Core Views of the Reports Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel exports has been disproven by the market. The market quickly reversed all the gains, and the closing price was basically the same as the starting point of the previous day. The supply of nickel ore is likely to loosen, and there is no sign of production cuts in nickel iron. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month-on-month, but it remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline significantly. The demand for nickel is under pressure, and the profit of stainless steel manufacturers has not improved significantly. The report suggests rolling short nickel in the range of 120,000 - 127,000 [1][2]. Zinc - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by the tariff policy, but the profit of mining enterprises is still at a relatively high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating that there is no production cut in the mining end, and the import of the mining end has been greatly repaired. The demand peak season is coming to an end, and the demand for zinc is expected to weaken. The report suggests waiting for opportunities to short zinc [3][4]. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Macro & Industry News Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Philippines plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, which may lead to a shortage of global nickel ore supply and price increases. In 2024, Indonesia imported about 10 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, mainly supplying smelters in industrial parks such as Morowali and Weda Bay. The ban may cause supply chain disruptions for these smelters [1]. Zinc - In April 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 1.755 million units, a year-on-year increase of 14.5% and a month-on-month decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 6.872 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [3]. Supply Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel exports has been disproven by the market. The Philippines is out of the rainy season, and the shipping volume is expected to increase. The supply of nickel ore is likely to loosen. The profit of nickel iron produced from medium-grade nickel ore is close to the break-even point, but the profit of nickel iron produced from low-grade nickel ore is still substantial. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month-on-month, but it remains at the highest level in the same period in history. The cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline significantly [1]. Zinc - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by the tariff policy, but the profit of mining enterprises is still at a relatively high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating that there is no production cut in the mining end, and the import of the mining end has been greatly repaired. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk, but it is still not low. The static profit of pure smelting enterprises has turned negative again, but the profit of smelting enterprises has turned positive after considering by-product income. The possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting enterprises and integrated enterprises is extremely small, and the overall supply is expected to loosen [3]. Demand Nickel and Stainless Steel - The cost of nickel in the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support provided by the cost of downstream nickel sulfate is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit critical point of external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both of which have decreased compared with the previous period. The profit of stainless steel manufacturers has not improved significantly, but the production volume has remained high. The possibility of production cuts in stainless steel is small [2]. Zinc - The demand peak season is coming to an end. The capacity utilization rate and output of galvanizing are not high, and the enthusiasm of manufacturers for production is low. The inventory of steel mills is low, while the social inventory has started to accumulate, indicating that the terminal demand for zinc ingots is starting to decline. The demand for die-casting alloys has not improved significantly, and manufacturers are producing on demand. The supply of zinc oxide is relatively sufficient, and there is no sign of an increase in the operating rate. The overall demand for zinc is expected to weaken [4].
镍日报-20250513
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-05-13 07:01
General Information - Report title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: May 13, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel market shows a long - term bearish and short - term bullish pattern. With improved macro - atmosphere due to progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations, asset prices rise.沪镍 opened high and closed 2% higher at 126,130, with the total open interest of the index decreasing by 2,661 to 162,205 lots. It's recommended to treat the market as oscillating strongly and continue the low - buying strategy [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Sino - US tariff negotiations led to a better macro - environment, pushing up asset prices.沪镍 rose 2% to 126,130, and the total open interest decreased. The spot premium remained stable, with Jinchuan's premium at 2,150 yuan/ton and Russian nickel's at 150 yuan/ton. The fundamentals are long - term bearish and short - term bullish. Nickel ore prices are strong due to Indonesia's policy, and the HMA in mid - May was $15,415/ton, up $366/ton. The domestic benchmark price of HPM increased, and the premium of domestic pyrometallurgical ore rose by $2/wet ton compared to April. Pure nickel inventory is still weak but de - stocking has begun, and the supply of refined nickel raw materials is tight due to production cuts in Indonesia, which supports the price of nickel sulfate. The oversupply of primary nickel cannot be reversed, but with strong support from the ore end and short - term supply pressure relief, the market should be treated as oscillating strongly and the low - buying strategy should be continued [8] 2. Industry News - **Indonesian domestic trade ore benchmark price**: The HMA in mid - May was $15,415/ton, up $366/ton. The HPM prices of different - grade nickel ores all increased. The mainstream premium of pyrometallurgical domestic trade ore in May was $26 - 28/wet ton, up $2/wet ton from April, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore decreased slightly [11] - **Talon Metals**: It discovered a high - grade nickel sample in Minnesota, with a nickel content of 12.65% and other metals. This is a major breakthrough in its exploration for supplying battery - grade nickel to Tesla. The project needs environmental review, and the company is conducting a feasibility study and starting the approval process, planning to transport the ore to North Dakota for processing [12] - **Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. (GFNI)**: It exported 56,625 wet metric tons of low - grade nickel ore to Indonesia in April 2025. Its target for 2025 is 91 shipments totaling 5 million wet metric tons, with 53% low - grade and 47% medium - grade ores. It expects double - digit revenue growth in 2025 due to capacity expansion in Palawan, improved production efficiency in Surigao, and better port operations in Bataan. In 2024, it had a revenue of 7.611 billion pesos and a net profit of 743.9 million pesos. Its 2025 capital expenditure budget is 711.8 million pesos for mine development, exploration, and high - value - added processing projects [12] - **Ivanhoe Mining**: Its subsidiary Ivanplats achieved a major milestone on May 7, 2025, by completing the first high - grade ore blasting of the Flatreef ore body at the 850 - meter level. The project has completed a 996 - meter shaft and 5.5 kilometers of tunnels at three levels. Ore will be stored on the surface for the first feeding of the concentrator in Q4 this year [13]
镍不锈钢早报:菲律宾再传禁矿消息,可靠度众说纷纭-20250512
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-05-12 03:36
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Hold [1] - Stainless Steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish Outlook [3][4] 2. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel ore exports, if true, could turn China's nickel element supply from surplus to shortage. The spot price of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, and the seasonal loosening of the ore market is yet to appear, but the possibility of loosening at the ore end remains high. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China is still at a high level, and the production cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline. The short - term rise in nickel prices is affected by the rumor, but the reliability of the news is questionable, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Zinc - The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the peak demand season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal demand, so the overall outlook is bearish [3][4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Macro & Industry News - The Philippines government plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, which may hit Indonesia's nickel smelting industry. In 2024, Indonesia imported about 10 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. The ban may cause a global supply crunch and price increase of nickel ore, but the reliability of this news is in doubt [1]. Supply - If the Philippines bans nickel ore exports, China's nickel element supply may shift from surplus to shortage. The spot price of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, and the seasonal loosening of the ore market is yet to appear. The profit of producing nickel iron from medium - grade nickel ore is close to the break - even point, while that from low - grade nickel ore is still substantial. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period of history [1]. Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support from downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both lower than before. The possibility of stainless steel production cuts is small [2]. Zinc Macro & Industry News - In April 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative retail volume this year is 6.872 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3]. Supply - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by tariff policies, but it is still at a relatively medium - high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating no production cuts at the ore end, and imports at the ore end have significantly recovered. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but is still not low, and the profit of smelting enterprises has turned positive. The possibility of production cuts at the supply end is very small, and the overall supply is loosening [3]. Demand - The peak demand season is approaching the end. In the galvanizing industry, the capacity utilization rate and production are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low due to pessimism about future demand. The terminal demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline. In the die - casting alloy market, manufacturers produce on demand, and the market is expected to maintain rigid - demand transactions. In the zinc oxide market, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the possibility of manufacturers increasing the operating rate is low [4].
国泰君安期货研究周报:绿色金融与新能源-20250511
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 13:56
2025年05月11日 国泰君安期货研究周报-绿色金融与新能源 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 5 月 11 日 镍:消息面扰动情绪,基本面变化有限 不锈钢:社会库存边际累增,盘面成本预期支撑 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 观点与策略 | 镍:消息面扰动情绪,基本面变化有限 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢:社会库存边际累增,盘面成本预期支撑 | 2 | | 工业硅:西南复产,基本面弱势 | 11 | | 多晶硅:关注下周仓单故事 | 11 | | 碳酸锂:终端需求回落,上游成本快速塌陷,偏弱震荡 | 20 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 报告导读: 沪镍基本面:基本面逻辑或将镍价震荡区间收敛,市场消息扰动盘面情绪。首先,印尼高品位镍矿偏 紧,溢价边际上行 1-2 美金至 26-27 美金/湿吨,同比增加 15-16 美金。同时考虑到补库需求的影响,精 炼镍过剩预期下的短期累库不及预期,库存边际小幅去化,再叠加矿端推升一体化火法成本,镍价下方或 仍有托底。其次,5 月 9 日市场有消 ...