研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 14 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：集运欧线期货5月13日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | | 价 | | | | | （%） | | | | | EC2506 | 1,385.0 | 1,497.0 | 1,465.2 ...

联合研究丨行业点评 [Table_Title] 中美关税下调，周期哪些行业受益？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月 12 日，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进 展，大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计 91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了 91%的反制关 税；美方在初始的 90 天内暂停实施 24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的 90 天内暂停实 施 24%的反制关税，对中美贸易往来的大宗产品带来显著利好，具体影响几何？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 范超 韩轶超 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490512020001 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BQK473 SFC：BQK468 马太 魏凯 张韦华 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490520080009 SAC：S0490517080003 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUT964 SFC：BQT627 张弛 SA ...

5/12 以色列代表团将前往多哈进行停火谈判。以色列总理办公室12日发表声明说，以代表团将于13日前往卡塔尔首都多哈，同 巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）就加沙地带停火协议进行间接谈判。声明说，以总理内塔尼亚胡当天同到访的美国中东问题 特使史蒂文·威特科夫和美国驻以大使迈克·赫卡比举行会谈，强调谈判将"只会在炮火下"进行。另据以色列媒体12日报道，哈 马斯当天在加沙地带南部的汗尤尼斯释放了具有美国和以色列双重国籍的被扣押人员艾丹·亚历山大。 注:XSI-C指数延迟三个工作日公布, EC期货合约价格走势 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 EC远期曲线 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 -652 60 500 2510 75 2025/4/23 2025/5/12 2025/3/17 2025/4/7 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/5/13 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导航 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The significant rebound of the container shipping index contracts on the day is mainly due to the better - than - expected Sino - US talks over the weekend. The short - term trade prospects have improved, and the supply concerns brought by the US line to the European line have been alleviated, which significantly boosts market expectations. However, the progress in the later stage is still uncertain, and the supply - demand fundamentals of the European line are weak. In the long term, container shipping prices may still be more likely to fall than rise. It is recommended to participate mainly from the perspective of short - term oversold rebound [8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The spot market changed little. The online quotes in the second half of May were basically the same as those in the first half. The significant rebound of the container shipping index contracts was caused by the Sino - US talks. According to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement, both China and the US suspended the tariff measures upgraded after April 2, and the short - term trade prospects improved. But the long - term container shipping prices may be weak, and short - term oversold rebound is recommended [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - From May 6th to 9th, the China Export Container Transport Market was generally stable after the holiday, with different routes showing different trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year. - On May 9th, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index rose 0.3% from the previous period. In the European route, due to weak consumption and slow progress in US - EU trade negotiations, the transport demand was stable, and the spot market booking price fell slightly. The Mediterranean route's supply - demand fundamentals were better, and the market price was flat. In the North American route, China's exports to the US decreased in April, but the market price rose slightly [9][10]. - From May 10th to 11th, Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva. On May 12th, the "Sino - US Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement" was released. The US will cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify the 34% "reciprocal tariff", suspending 24% of it for 90 days and retaining 10%. China will also take corresponding measures [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On May 12th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased by 5.5% compared to May 4th, while that for the US West route increased by 10.2% [13]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Quotes**: The report provides the trading data of container shipping European line futures contracts on May 12th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. All contracts rebounded significantly, with a maximum increase of 16% [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report presents multiple charts, including global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [20][23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the U.S. indicates a significant easing of trade tensions, with both countries agreeing to modify tariffs on each other's goods, which may lead to a gradual recovery of trade flows and improved economic conditions [1]. Group 1: Trade Policy Changes - The U.S. will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff on Chinese goods for the first 90 days, retaining a 10% tariff thereafter, and will eliminate additional tariffs imposed in early April [1]. - China will similarly suspend a 24% tariff on U.S. goods for 90 days, keeping a 10% tariff, and will cancel other tariffs imposed in early April [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - The easing of trade tensions is expected to positively impact sensitive sectors, with shipping and oil markets likely to see increased demand and price stabilization [2][7]. - The potential for a recovery in U.S. orders and changes in transshipment trade are critical indicators for future trade negotiations and market dynamics [3]. Group 3: Commodity-Specific Impacts - The shipping market is anticipated to experience a surge in demand due to the tariff suspensions, particularly in the U.S. shipping lanes, which may lead to a temporary reversal in shipping volumes [7]. - The oil market remains cautious, as the tariff adjustments do not directly affect crude oil trade flows, but the overall sentiment may improve due to reduced trade tensions [9]. - Cotton exports from China to the U.S. may recover if negotiations continue positively, enhancing China's competitive position in the textile market [11]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Key indicators to monitor include China's PMI new export orders and U.S. retail inventory levels, which will provide insights into the stability of trade conditions [4]. - The overall economic outlook remains cautious, with potential risks from U.S. fiscal policies and global inventory cycles impacting market sentiment [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The European container shipping line (EC) opened low and then fluctuated upwards. The 06 contract closed at 1283 points, down 3.64%. Some shipping companies slightly reduced their freight rates for the second half of May, and the average online price for 40 - foot containers dropped to around $1750, close to the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. Although the expected peak season for the European line has not been completely falsified, the supply - surplus situation in the European line has been exacerbated by the overflow of capacity from the US line. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward drivers, and the peak - season space is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Directory EC Contract Volume and Price - **EC2506**: The latest transaction price was 1283 points, down 3.64%. The trading volume was 45,529, and the open interest on one side was 38,142. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 408 [1]. - **EC2508**: The latest transaction price was 1556.4 points, down 2.45%. The trading volume was 28,090, and the open interest on one side was 36,029. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 910 [1]. - **EC2510**: The latest transaction price was 1273.2 points, down 2.94%. The trading volume was 6765, and the open interest on one side was 16,670. The net long position of the top 20 members was 0 [1]. - **EC2512**: The latest transaction price was 1458.6 points, down 1.54%. The trading volume was 1379, and the open interest on one side was 3986 [1]. - **EC2602**: The latest transaction price was 1286.8 points, down 2.31%. The trading volume was 667, and the open interest on one side was 2736 [1]. - **EC2604**: The latest transaction price was 1173 points, down 1.76%. The trading volume was 360, and the open interest on one side was 1122 [1]. - **Total**: The total trading volume was 82,790, and the total open interest on one side was 98,685. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 1318 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - **SCFIS (weekly)**: The latest index was 1379.07 points, down 3.5% from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI ($/TEU)**: The latest price was $1200, down 4.8% from the previous period [1]. - **TCI (20GP) spot freight rate ($/TEU)**: The latest price was $1340, with no change from the previous period [1]. - **TCI (40GP) ($/FEU)**: The latest price was $2112, with no change from the previous period [1]. - **Basis spread**: The basis spread on the previous trading day was 96.07 points, up 5.2 points from the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - **Capacity**: The capacity of the Asia - Europe route was 514,749 TEU, a decrease of 456 TEU. The idle capacity ratio was 1.6% [4]. - **Average speed**: The average speed of container ships was 13.88 knots. The average speed of container ships over 17,000 TEU was 15.55 knots, and that of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships was 15.01 knots [4]. - **In - port capacity**: The in - port capacity in Rotterdam was 219,600 TEU, in Hamburg was 94,600 TEU, and in Singapore was 355,300 TEU [4]. - **Routing situation**: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden was 11, the north - bound traffic volume through the Suez Canal was 1, and the south - bound traffic volume was 2 [4]. - **Time charter rates**: The 6 - 12 - month time charter rate for 9000 TEU ships was $105,000 per day, for 6500 TEU ships was $72,000 per day, and for 2500 TEU ships was $33,750 per day [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping line's EC contract showed a decline, with the 06 contract closing at 1288.2 points, down 1.83%. Some shipping companies slightly reduced their May freight rates, and the average online price for large containers in the second half of May dropped to less than $1800, approaching the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. Although the expected traditional peak season for the European line has not been completely disproven, and the tariff policy has not significantly affected the cargo volume, it has added pressure on freight rates on the supply side. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward momentum, and the peak - season potential is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest View and Strategy Direction - The EC of the European container shipping line first rose and then fell. The 06 contract closed at 1288.2 points, down 1.83%. MSK kept its freight rate unchanged in the 21st week, quoting $1450 for large containers, while HPL and OOCL slightly reduced their May freight rates to $1700 for large containers. Most shipping companies in the second half of May continued to use the first - half rates, and some slightly reduced them. The average online price for large containers in the second half of May dropped to less than $1800, close to the cost price, which may increase the shipping companies' willingness to suspend voyages. The expected traditional peak season for the European line has not been completely disproven, and the tariff policy has not significantly affected the cargo volume but has added pressure on freight rates on the supply side. After the previous decline, the market lacks upward momentum, and the peak - season potential is also cautiously viewed. It is expected that the overall situation will continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2506: The latest成交价 is 1288.2 points, down 1.83%, with a trading volume of 53581, a unilateral open interest of 39510, long positions of 22192, short positions of 23424, and a net long position of - 1232 [1]. - EC2508: The latest成交价 is 1559.6 points, up 3.72%, with a trading volume of 39237, a unilateral open interest of 36138, long positions of 23359, short positions of 24483, and a net long position of - 1124 [1]. - EC2510: The latest成交价 is 1287.9 points, up 1.22%, with a trading volume of 11837, a unilateral open interest of 17426, and no long or short positions reported [1]. - EC2512: The latest成交价 is 1460.7 points, up 0.21%, with a trading volume of 1893 and a unilateral open interest of 4091 [1]. - EC2602: The latest成交价 is 1291.4 points, down 0.43%, with a trading volume of 982 and a unilateral open interest of 2735 [1]. - EC2604: The latest成交价 is 1182.6 points, down 0.81%, with a trading volume of 849 and a unilateral open interest of 1144 [1]. - The total trading volume is 108379, the total unilateral open interest is 101044, the total long positions of the top 20 members are 45551, the total short positions of the top 20 members are 47907, and the net long position is - 2356 [1]. Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly spot index: SCFIS is 1379.07 points, down 3.5%; SCFI is $1200/TEU, down 4.8% [1]. - Daily spot freight rates: TCI(20GP) is $1340/TEU, down 1.6%; TCI(40GP) is $2112/FEU, down 3.3% [1]. - The basis difference was 90.87 points on the previous trading day, up 11.3 points from the day before [1]. Spot Market Data - Capacity: The capacity deployment on the Asia - Europe route is 516078 TEU, a decrease of 1 TEU. The idle capacity ratio is 1.6%, with 1.0% for container ships over 17000 TEU, 0.4% for 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships, and 1.2% for 8000 - 11999 TEU container ships [4]. - Average speed: The average speed of container ships is 13.88 knots, 15.55 knots for container ships over 17000 TEU, and 15.01 knots for 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships [4]. - Capacity in port: Rotterdam has 21.96 million TEU, Hamburg has 9.46 million TEU, and Singapore has 35.53 million TEU [4]. - Bypass situation: The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden is 11, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal is 1, and the south - bound traffic volume is 2 [4]. - Time charter rates for 6 - 12 months: $105000 per day for 9000 TEU, $72000 per day for 6500 TEU, and $33750 per day for 2500 TEU [4].

| | | | | | | 研究所可以解放之IV | | | 2025/5/8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌(%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 1288.2 | -0.87 | 90.9 | 33882 | | 39510 | 3642 | | | EC2508 | | 1559.6 | 3.29 | - 180.5 | 39237 | | 36138 | 3696 | | | EC2510 | | 1287.9 | 1.81 | 91.2 | 11837 | | 17426 | 1332 | | | EC2512 | | 1460.7 | 0.74 | -81.6 | 1893 | | 4091 | 101 | | | EC2602 | | 1291.4 | 0.19 | 87.7 | 982 | | 2735 | 132 | | 期货 | EC2604 | | 1182.6 | -3.70 | 196 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: May 8, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - The spot price of container shipping in the second half of May is basically the same as that in the first half. The supply pressure may increase due to the re - allocation of vessels from the US route. The June freight rate contract is likely to remain weak, while the August peak - season contract may be boosted by improved sentiment. It is recommended to participate based on short - term oversold rebound and pay attention to the progress of talks [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The online quotes for the second half of May are basically flat compared to the first half. The lowest price for Maersk's large container is $1480, and in the first half, the price was $1647 due to better demand. Other airlines' prices are mostly in the range of $1650 - $2000 [8]. - Supply: Affected by the sharp decline in US - route demand, airlines are re - allocating vessels to other routes, increasing supply pressure, especially in late May [8]. - Operation Suggestion: Although there is a short - term relaxation in Sino - US relations, it will still take a long time to reach an agreement. The June freight rate contract is hard to reverse its decline, while the August peak - season contract may be more positively affected. It is advisable to focus on short - term oversold rebounds and monitor the progress of talks [8]. 2. Industry News - Market in late April: From April 28th to 30th, the China Export Container Shipping Market declined slightly. Transport demand was weak before the holiday, and most route freight rates fell, dragging down the composite index [9]. - Manufacturing PMI: China's official manufacturing PMI in April was 49, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [9]. - European Route: The eurozone's April composite PMI was 50.1, slightly above the boom - bust line, mainly dragged down by the service industry. The future European economic outlook is uncertain due to tariff issues [9]. - North American Route: In March, the US merchandise trade deficit reached $162 billion, a record high. The consumer confidence index in April continued to decline. The North American route's transport demand remained low, and the spot booking price increased slightly [10]. - Diplomatic News: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bezant from May 9th to 12th at the US request. China firmly opposes US tariff abuse and advocates equal and reciprocal dialogue [10]. - Other News: Talks on a Gaza cease - fire are close to completion. The US plans to charge additional fees for Chinese ships docking at US ports. Maersk will adjust the peak - season surcharge for routes from Far - East countries (excluding China and Hong Kong) to the US and Canada [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | May 4, 2025 | April 28, 2025 | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | 1379.07 | 1429.39 | - 50.32 | - 3.5% | | SCFIS: US - West Route (Base Ports) | 1320.69 | 1230.28 | 90.41 | 7.3% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1312.2 | 1325.0 | 1288.2 | 1331.4 | - 24.0 | - 1.83 | 53581 | 39510 | 3642 | | EC2508 | 1503.6 | 1560.0 | 1559.6 | 1595.5 | 56.0 | 3.72 | 39237 | 36138 | 3696 | | EC2510 | 1272.4 | 1259.9 | 1287.9 | 1311.8 | 15.5 | 1.22 | 11837 | 17426 | 1332 | | EC2512 | 1457.6 | 1439.4 | 1460.7 | 1481.4 | 3.1 | 0.21 | 1893 | 4091 | 101 | | EC2602 | 1297.0 | 1263.8 | 1291.4 | 1317.2 | - 5.6 | - 0.43 | 982 | 2735 | 132 | | EC2604 | 1192.2 | 1166.0 | 1182.6 | 1194.0 | - 9.6 | - 0.81 | 849 | 1144 | 372 | [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trends of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European - route futures, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe base - port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][19][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given documents. The reports mainly provide data on shipping futures, spot rates, and related news. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Data - **EC Futures Contracts**: The report shows the prices, price changes, bases, trading volumes, open interests, and open interest changes of multiple EC futures contracts (EC2506 - EC2604) as of May 6, 2025. For example, EC2506 closed at 1324.3 with a 3.82% increase, and its trading volume was 54,878 with an open interest of 33,250 and a decrease of 4,385 in open interest [2]. - **Futures Month - to - Month Spreads**: It also presents the month - to - month spreads of different EC futures contracts, such as EC2506 - 2508, EC2508 - 2510, etc., along with their comparisons to previous periods [2]. Shipping Indexes - **Index Data**: Various shipping indexes are updated at different frequencies. For instance, the SCHI2 index was 1379.07 on May 5, 2025, with a - 3.52% change from the previous period. The SCFI index was $1260/TEU on April 25, 2025, down 4.26% from the previous period [2]. Shipping News - **Shipping Company News**: MSC added a sail - stop in week 20 and 25, causing the average weekly shipping capacity in May - June to contract slightly to 300,000 and 330,000 TEU, with a - 2% and + 9% change respectively [2]. - **European Line Quotes**: The European line market remains weak. CMA and EMC lowered their quotes in the 19th and 20th weeks, with the May quote center continuing to decline. The average quote for wk20 was $1800 (equivalent to about 1250 points on the futures market) [3]. International News - **Trade News**: On April 29, sources said that Trump is working on larger - scale trade agreements with multiple countries, including Japan, Vietnam, etc. The White House's trade team received 18 written proposals [4]. - **Middle - East Tension News**: On May 6, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a "high - intensity" military expansion in the Gaza Strip, aiming to defeat Hamas and secure the release of hostages. Israeli officials also reported air - strikes on Yemen in retaliation for Houthi missile attacks [5].