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中信证券:232关税落地促铜价回归,出海铜企有望受益
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-08-01 00:45
Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the U.S. copper 232 tariff, which imposes a 50% import duty on copper products while exempting refined copper and raw copper materials, has led to significant fluctuations in COMEX copper prices, with the current COMEX-LME price spread nearly eliminated [1] Group 1: Market Impact - The unexpected exemption of refined copper from import duties has caused substantial volatility in copper prices [1] - The anticipated "siphon effect" from the U.S. is expected to weaken, and concerns about inventory return are premature [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise due to tight supply from mines, easing liquidity, global economic recovery, and domestic smelting sector adjustments [1] - The 232 tariff is likely to provide excess profits for Chinese copper processing companies venturing abroad [1]
LME仓储空间遭疯抢!特朗普关税豁免引发铜库存“大迁徙”
智通财经网· 2025-08-01 00:21
智通财经APP获悉,铜交易员正在争相预订存储空间,押注美国总统特朗普意外决定不对主要交易形式 的精炼铜征收关税将引发一波铜金属涌入伦敦金属交易所(LME)仓库。在过去27小时内对LME仓储空 间的抢占凸显出特朗普政府的这一声明对整个铜交易生态的剧烈冲击,也宣告了一项被铜业资深人士称 为"职业生涯中最赚钱"的套利交易的戏剧性终结。 当地时间7月31日,特朗普签署命令,宣布对多类铜进口产品加征关税,自8月1日(周五)起生效。根据 白宫发布的事实清单,自8月1日起,美方对所有半成品铜材(铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板、铜管等)及铜密 集型衍生产品(管件、电缆、连接器、电气元件等)统一征收50%关税。不过,铜原料(例如铜矿石、精 矿、锍铜、阴极铜和阳极铜)及铜废料不在此次232关税范围内,也不受到所谓"对等关税"约束。 特朗普对精炼铜的重大关税豁免令交易员感到震惊,并导致纽约商品交易所(COMEX)铜价在周四暴 跌,创下史上最大单日跌幅。 这也是特朗普关税政策再次扰乱全球价值2500亿美元的铜市场的最新案例。数月来,交易员争相将铜运 往美国,以利用美国铜市场远高于其他地区的价格。他们迅速在美国各大港口、特别是新奥尔良,建立 ...
【环球财经】避险买盘限制纽约金价跌幅 银价触及四周新低
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-01 00:09
Group 1 - The most actively traded gold futures for December 2025 closed at $3342.3 per ounce, up $14.4, with a gain of 0.43% [2] - The increase in gold prices was supported by safe-haven demand, despite a slight decline during trading hours due to profit-taking and a significant drop in silver prices [2] - Market analysts attribute the weakness in gold prices and strong selling pressure on silver to the recent sharp decline in copper prices, which fell over 18% due to new tariffs announced by President Trump [2] Group 2 - The U.S. Commerce Department reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.6% year-on-year in June, slightly above expectations, while the month-on-month increase was 0.3%, meeting expectations [3] - Despite the record high gold prices, retail investors have returned to the market, boosting global gold demand, with total demand rising to 1249 tons in Q2 2024, a 3% increase from the same period in 2023 [3][4] - The World Gold Council attributed the demand growth to strong investment interest in gold ETFs, coins, and bars, although purchases by central banks and jewelers slowed in Q2 due to high gold prices [4]
美国宣布将对进口铜产品征收50%关税,纽交所期铜暴跌20%
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 23:00
Group 1 - The U.S. government will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1 [1][3] - The tariff will apply to products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, but not to copper ore, concentrates, or cathodes [3][5] - Following the announcement, copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange fell by 20% in one day [5][9] Group 2 - The high tariff is expected to significantly impact U.S. manufacturing, as nearly half of the copper used by American factories is sourced from overseas suppliers [9][11] - Major suppliers of refined copper and copper products to the U.S. include Chile, Canada, and Mexico [9] - The tariff is likely to lead to increased costs for consumer goods such as refrigerators, cars, and air conditioners, creating a ripple effect on prices [9][11] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the tariff is a direct attempt by the government to shift costs from consumers and manufacturers to producers, aiming to rebuild the U.S. supply chain [7][11] - The copper tariff is being implemented in addition to existing tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are also used in similar products [11]
铜陵有色股价下跌4.4% 美国关税政策影响铜矿板块表现
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 19:14
Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals reported a stock price of 3.48 yuan on July 31, down 4.4% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.142 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - Tongling Nonferrous Metals is a significant copper production enterprise in China, primarily engaged in copper mining, smelting, and processing. The company's product offerings include cathode copper and copper processing materials, covering the upstream and downstream of the copper industry chain [1] Recent Developments - The U.S. has announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products, while refined copper is excluded from this tariff. This policy has led to significant fluctuations in U.S. copper futures prices, but the impact on domestic copper exports is limited. Data indicates that in 2024, China's copper exports to the U.S. will account for only 5.2% of its total imports [1] Market Activity - On July 31, Tongling Nonferrous Metals experienced a net outflow of 51.6167 million yuan in principal funds, representing 0.14% of its market capitalization [1]
帮主郑重:50%铜关税落地!全球供应链一夜变天,中长线布局窗口已开
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 16:06
Core Viewpoint - The recent 50% tariff on copper products by the Trump administration is not merely a trade dispute but a significant trigger for a global industrial chain reshuffle, leading to drastic price fluctuations and supply chain adjustments in the copper industry [1]. Group 1: Impact on the Copper Industry - Copper prices in New York experienced a dramatic drop of 18% in a single day following the tariff announcement, with the tariff specifically targeting semi-finished copper products while exempting raw materials like copper ore and cathodes [1][3]. - The tariff is expected to increase production costs significantly, with electric vehicles requiring four times more copper than traditional vehicles, leading to a potential cost increase of $1,200 per Tesla vehicle [3]. - The construction industry is also affected, with the cost of copper cables causing a 35% price increase, resulting in a 40% reduction in the scale of ongoing projects in New York [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Supply Chain Adjustments - The tariff has caused a collapse in the premium of COMEX copper prices over LME prices, prompting traders to reroute shipments, with 32 vessels loaded with copper pipes heading to Hawaii before the tariff deadline [3]. - Chilean state-owned copper company Codelco is shifting 20% of its production towards China, while Mexican copper pipe manufacturers are relocating to Monterrey to avoid tariffs, indicating a significant shift in global copper trade dynamics [3]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Considerations - Investors should monitor the potential for tariff exemptions, particularly as Chile is lobbying for relief, which could lead to a rapid decline in copper premiums if successful [4]. - The rising costs are pushing for technological innovations in the industry, with companies like CATL and Tesla exploring copper-free battery technologies, indicating a potential shift in the market landscape [4]. - The copper industry remains essential for the renewable energy revolution, with domestic copper companies showing over 30% profit growth in Q2, suggesting that any market corrections could present buying opportunities [4].
美国宣布将对部分进口铜产品征收50%关税,纽约期铜闪崩→
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 12:56
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1, excluding refined copper and major products from this tax, which contradicts market expectations [1][3][6]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - President Trump signed an announcement on July 30, imposing a 50% tariff on imports of copper semi-finished products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as high-copper-content derivatives like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [1][3]. - Refined copper and major products are excluded from the tariff, which was unexpected by the market, as there were anticipations that all imported refined metals would be taxed [1][3][6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange experienced a significant drop, with prices falling over 18% at one point, ultimately closing at $4.63 per pound, down approximately 17% [3][5]. - The announcement has been described as unexpectedly disruptive to international markets, indicating a volatile response from traders [3][5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Earlier in the year, Trump hinted at potential copper tariffs, which led to a notable increase in U.S. copper prices compared to global markets, resulting in a surge of copper products entering the U.S. [5][6]. - On July 8, after announcing a 50% tariff on all imported copper, copper futures saw a record single-day increase of 17%, reaching $5.89 per pound, marking the largest single-day price increase since 1989 [5][6]. Group 4: Trade Flow Implications - The exclusion of refined copper from the tariff is expected to further disrupt global copper trade flows, with significant quantities of copper products already shipped to the U.S. potentially being re-exported [6].
铜矿股集体下挫,特朗普对几类进口半成品铜加征50%关税
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 12:18
"从供应端看,参考去年进口量,当前美国精炼铜供应严重过剩。"卓创资讯铜行业分析师宋洪潇告诉第 一财经记者,今年上半年美国精炼铜进口量为86.4万吨,而去年同期仅为35万吨,同比增幅高达 147%。因此从美铜基本面现状看,此次新策影响更多是美国国内情况。 虹吸效应消失,全球精炼铜贸易流向会否转向?我的钢铁网认为,若后续美铜与伦铜价差出现倒挂,即 美铜价格低于伦铜,则前期美国囤积铜货源将大量转运出来,这将给亚太及欧洲市场带来较大库存压 力,但库存转移的前提是二者价差出现倒挂,且足够覆盖转运成本。 7月31日,A股铜矿股集体下挫。截至收盘,江西铜业(600362.SH)、洛阳钼业(603993.SH)、铜陵 有色(000630.SZ)均跌超4%,北方铜业(000737.SZ)、紫金矿业(601899.SH)分别收跌3.54%、 3.38%。 铜矿股异动主要受一则关税消息影响。当地时间7月30日,美国总统特朗普宣布,将自8月1日起对进口 半成品铜产品(例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管)及铜密集型衍生产品(例如管件、电缆、连接器 和电气元件)普遍征收50%关税。铜输入材料(例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和阳极铜)和铜废 ...
又是232关税!特朗普宣布50%“铜关税”,只针对半成品
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 12:00
Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has imposed a 50% tariff on all semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1, 2023, citing national security concerns [1][2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The tariff applies to semi-finished copper materials such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as copper-intensive derivatives like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [1][5]. - Copper raw materials (e.g., copper ore, concentrates, blister copper, cathodes, and anodes) and copper scrap are exempt from this tariff [1][7]. - The tariff will not be cumulative with existing tariffs, such as the 25% tariff on automobiles, meaning if a copper product is subject to both, only the higher tariff will apply [5][10]. Group 2: Market Impact - Following the announcement, copper prices in New York dropped approximately 18% to $4.60 per pound, contrasting with a previous spike to nearly $6 per pound earlier in the month [1][7]. - Analysts noted that the focus on semi-finished products was a significant market surprise, leading to a widening price gap between U.S. and London copper prices [7][9]. - The U.S. relies on imports for about half of its refined copper, with only two domestic smelters, indicating a potential supply challenge [7][9]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Implications - The U.S. government aims to bolster domestic refining capacity by requiring that a portion of high-quality copper scrap remains in the domestic market, starting with 25% by 2027 and increasing to 40% by 2029 [9][10]. - The new regulations may lead to higher prices for various products, from construction materials to electronics, due to increased costs associated with the tariffs [11].
铜矿股集体下挫!特朗普对几类进口半成品铜加征50%关税,精炼铜被“豁免”
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-07-31 12:00
铜矿股异动主要受一则关税消息影响。当地时间7月30日,美国总统特朗普宣布,将自8月1日起对进口 半成品铜产品(例如铜管、铜线、铜棒、铜板和铜管)及铜密集型衍生产品(例如管件、电缆、连接器 和电气元件)普遍征收50%关税。铜输入材料(例如铜矿石、精矿、锍铜、阴极铜和阳极铜)和铜废料 不受"232条款"或对等关税约束。 特朗普将进口量最大的精炼铜排除在关税清单之外的决定出乎市场意料。消息发布当日,美国纽约商品 交易所(COMEX)铜主力合约(下称"美铜")单日盘中暴跌超18%至4.63美元/磅,创历史最大单日跌 幅。同日,英国伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜主力合约(下称"伦铜")收跌0.74%至9730美元/吨。美铜与 伦铜之间的价差也从一日之前每吨约3500美元缩窄至500美元,溢价从28%大幅回落至5%左右。7月31 日,美铜继续下跌,跌幅一度超过20%,回吐4月初以来全部涨幅。 美国是全球第二大铜消费国。据美国地质调查局数据,2024年美国铜消费量约180万吨,其中精炼铜160 万吨、废铜20万吨。精炼铜消费中,约一半来自进口。 一德期货首席分析师王伟伟强调,精炼铜进口关税前景并未完全消失,美国未来铜贸易政策的 ...