炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 继钢铁与铝之后，美国特朗普政府再次针对关键金属祭出高额关税。 展望后市，展大鹏指出，由于美国市场短期难以消化前期流入美国的40万吨铜库存，因此会压制住 COMEX铜价。若COMEX铜相比LME铜持续偏弱，则市场反而担心这部分库存反向流出的风险，从而 压制住LME铜价甚至中国国内铜价。但中长期来看，全球新能源汽车、数据中心及电网改造"火热"，供 应受铜精矿短缺限制，国际铜价重心仍将逐步上移。 建信期货分析师张平也告诉21世纪经济报道记者，当前美国市场存在大量显性库存。在美铜高溢价被抹 除之后，美国铜库存将重新回流全球贸易市场，LME和中国国内市场库存将迎来累库期，预计将拖累 铜价。不过，考虑到全球铜矿紧张以及全球经济绿色化、电动化趋势未改，铜价下跌将带动下游补库增 加。因此，预计铜价下跌的空间也有限，沪铜在7.7万元人民币/吨一带支撑。 据新华社报道，美国白宫网站7月30日发布的事实清单显示，特朗普当日签署公告，从8月1日起对进口 的铜半成品和铜含量高的衍生品统一征收50%的关税。白宫表示，根据美国《1962年贸易扩展法》第 232条款， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The rising spot premium restricts the decline of copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,040 with a daily decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 78,010 with a decline of 0.04%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,607 with a decline of 1.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 109,011, an increase of 53,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 176,193, an increase of 4,504. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 46,546, an increase of 30,514, and the open interest was 271,000, an increase of 221 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 19,622, a decrease of 351, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,200, an increase of 1,350. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.87% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 50.76, a decrease of 3.96 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,600, an increase of 100. The spot - to - near - term futures spread was 165, an increase of 55 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a 4 - month high. Trump said the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days, and the US Commerce Secretary claimed to have reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand [1] - **Micro News**: Chile expects to get Trump's tariff exemption, causing New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to decline generally. Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and development projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1 [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected announcement of a 50% tariff on certain copper imports by the U.S. government has led to a significant decline in copper prices, reversing previous gains in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. White House announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1 [1]. - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices fell over 18%, with the September contract dropping to $4.445 per pound, a decline of 20.4% [2]. - The premium of U.S. copper over LME copper decreased to $104, down from over $3,000 in recent months [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments and Future Outlook - The LME benchmark copper price fell by 0.03% to $9,695.5 per ton [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current price of $4.5 per pound for U.S. copper is reasonable, reflecting pre-tariff levels [4]. - There is an expectation that as U.S. inventories decrease and the impact of tariffs on downstream products is felt, Comex copper prices may rise again, potentially leading to a sustained U.S. premium [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on South Korean goods and a 25% tariff on Indian imports starting August 1, 2023, with additional penalties for both countries [1][3] - A comprehensive trade agreement has been reached between the U.S. and South Korea, where South Korea will provide $350 billion for U.S.-controlled investment projects and purchase $100 billion worth of liquefied natural gas or other energy products [2] - The U.S. will also impose a 40% tariff on Brazilian goods, raising the total tariff to 50%, excluding certain products like wood pulp and oil [3] Group 2 - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1, 2023, as part of a national security measure [4] - Following the announcement of these tariffs, copper prices in New York experienced a significant drop of nearly 20% [5]