Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resurgence of copper arbitrage trading as traders bet on the potential reintroduction of high tariffs on copper by the Trump administration in the coming year [1][2] - Major trading firms, including Mercuria Energy Group, Vitol Group, and Trafigura Group, are negotiating annual agreements for copper supply to the U.S. for 2026, with offers exceeding the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark price by over $500 per ton [1][2] - The expectation of renewed tariffs has led to a significant increase in the price of copper on the New York Comex, which is now substantially higher than LME prices, indicating a potential continuation of market volatility [1][2] Group 2 - Earlier this year, traders like Mercuria and Trafigura profited significantly by shipping large quantities of copper to the U.S. before the initial tariff announcement, which resulted in record import levels and pushed copper prices to historical highs despite weak demand [2] - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the implementation of tariffs until 2027, with a proposed 15% tariff increasing to 30% by 2028, creating uncertainty that traders are eager to exploit [2] - The willingness of traders to pay high premiums for copper is driven by the potential for higher resale prices in the U.S. market [2]

被特朗普之前雷声大雨点小的关税令暴击才过去三个月，曾被称为"现代史上最赚钱大宗商品交易之 一"的铜套利交易就卷土重来了。新近消息显示，交易商再次押注特朗普政府明年将对铜征收高关税。 交易商们之所以愿意支付如此高昂的溢价，是因为他们可以在美国市场以更高价格转售这些货物。 传出上述周五的媒体消息后，Mercuria和Trafigura的代表拒绝置评，Vitol发言人未回复置评请求。 三个月前 "史上最赚钱"交易一日崩塌 据美东时间11月7日周五的媒体报道，近几周，包括Mercuria Energy Group、维多（Vitol Group）和托克 （Trafigura Group）在内，多家贸易巨头近期与智利生产商接洽，以求锁定2026年向美国供应铜的年度 协议，部分交易商的支付价较伦敦金属交易所（LME）的基准铜价高每吨500美元以上。这些贸易商的 出价约为中国制造商现货采购价的10倍。 纽约Comex期铜价格已再次大幅高于LME的伦铜期货价。这反映了投资者对特朗普政府明年可能重启商 品级铜关税计划的预期，意味着今年震动全球铜市的大规模押注铜关税交易可能明年继续搅动市场。 关税阴影仍在 交易商豪赌关税重启 今年 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price is expected to continue the pattern of being stronger in the domestic market and weaker in the international market, as well as being weaker in the near - term and stronger in the far - term. Currently, the macro - environment is favorable for copper prices, while the industrial side shows a neutral - to - bearish trend [2][3][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Impact of US Tariff Policy - On July 30, the US President announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi - products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1. The New York copper price dropped by over 18% on the same day, and the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper quickly narrowed to the pre - tariff - expectation level. Copper ores and cathode copper were exempted from the tariff, which is beyond market expectations. This exemption is bullish for copper prices from a global supply - demand perspective. After the spread convergence, US copper imports may decline in the second half of the year, increasing non - US copper supply and being bearish for LME and SHFE copper [2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The current high global market risk appetite and the good performance of domestic and foreign equity markets are bullish for copper prices. The unexpectedly weak US non - farm data and lower - than - expected non - manufacturing PMI at the beginning of the month increased the expectation of a US economic slowdown and Fed rate - cut expectations, causing the US dollar index to fall. The market expects the Fed to cut rates three times this year, with a cumulative cut of 75 basis points [2]. - There is a risk of a macro - environment shift. If the US economy continues to weaken, copper prices will be under pressure; if the US economy stabilizes and the Fed cuts rates, it will be bullish for copper prices [3]. Domestic Market Conditions - In July, the domestic macro - environment was positive. With the "anti - involution" policy, domestic - priced commodities generally rose. The strong trend continued in late July but cooled down at the end of the month, and commodities entered an adjustment phase. The current spot industry is in the off - season, with limited impact on copper prices. Supported by the macro - environment, far - month copper contracts are stronger than near - month contracts. Domestic electrolytic copper inventory de - stocking has slowed down, while overseas copper inventory has been accumulating at a high level, resulting in the pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international copper prices. Domestic upstream smelters maintain high production, and refined copper imports are expected to increase, putting pressure on the domestic industry [3]. Trade Agreement and Its Impact - In August, the new US tariff policy was implemented, and the US reached new trade agreements with major global economies, possibly extending the current tariff policy for 90 days. This reduces global economic uncertainty and is expected to keep the market risk - appetite high, which is bullish for copper prices [3]. - The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, involving a 90 - day tariff extension and non - tariff measure adjustment, indicates an improvement in Sino - US trade relations and is also bullish for copper prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has imposed a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives, citing national security concerns, which has caused significant volatility in the global copper market [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Copper Market - The announcement of the tariff led to a 20% drop in copper futures prices on July 30, following a period of rising prices due to market speculation about the tariffs [2][3]. - Prior to the tariff announcement, copper futures had reached a record high of $5.8955 per pound, driven by expectations of the tariffs [2]. - The tariff policy has disrupted the previous premium for U.S. copper over London Metal Exchange (LME) prices, which had reached a 28% premium [2][3]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Inventory Dynamics - U.S. copper inventories at the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) have surged to 232,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21,900 tons, indicating a significant buildup of stock [3]. - The U.S. imported 864,000 tons of copper in the first half of the year, up 514,000 tons from the previous year, reflecting increased demand amid tariff speculation [3]. - The potential for excess inventory in the U.S. market may suppress COMEX copper prices, with concerns about inventory outflows impacting LME prices and domestic prices in China [3]. Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - Despite short-term pressures on copper prices, long-term demand for copper is expected to rise due to trends in electric vehicles, data centers, and grid modernization, which may support higher copper prices [3][5]. - The U.S. is the second-largest consumer of copper globally, with projected consumption of approximately 1.6 million tons in 2024, while domestic production remains limited [5]. - The U.S. relies heavily on imports for refined copper, with 46% of its refined copper needs met through imports, highlighting a critical gap in its supply chain [5]. Group 4: Future Policy Considerations - The U.S. government is considering further tariffs on refined copper, with potential rates of 15% starting in 2027, increasing to 30% in subsequent years, which could impact domestic production and investment [6]. - The proposed export licensing for high-quality copper scrap aims to ensure a stable supply of raw materials while promoting domestic refining capacity [6]. - The effectiveness of the tariff policy in fostering domestic copper industry growth remains uncertain, as significant capital investment and time are required to develop new refining capabilities [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The rising spot premium restricts the decline of copper prices [1] - The trend strength of copper is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,040 with a daily decline of 1.13%, and the night - session closing price was 78,010 with a decline of 0.04%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,607 with a decline of 1.26% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 109,011, an increase of 53,123 from the previous day, and the open interest was 176,193, an increase of 4,504. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 46,546, an increase of 30,514, and the open interest was 271,000, an increase of 221 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 19,622, a decrease of 351, and the LME Copper inventory was 138,200, an increase of 1,350. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.28%, a decrease of 1.87% [1] - **Spreads**: The LME Copper spread was - 50.76, a decrease of 3.96 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 73,600, an increase of 100. The spot - to - near - term futures spread was 165, an increase of 55 [1] Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in June was 2.8% year - on - year, reaching a 4 - month high. Trump said the US - Mexico tariff agreement would be extended by 90 days, and the US Commerce Secretary claimed to have reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand [1] - **Micro News**: Chile expects to get Trump's tariff exemption, causing New York copper to fall more than 6% and copper mining stocks to decline generally. Peru is evaluating 134 mining exploration and development projects with an expected investment of $6 billion. Trump will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1 [1][3]

Group 1 - The U.S. government will impose a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1 [1][3] - The tariff will apply to products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, but not to copper ore, concentrates, or cathodes [3][5] - Following the announcement, copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange fell by 20% in one day [5][9] Group 2 - The high tariff is expected to significantly impact U.S. manufacturing, as nearly half of the copper used by American factories is sourced from overseas suppliers [9][11] - Major suppliers of refined copper and copper products to the U.S. include Chile, Canada, and Mexico [9] - The tariff is likely to lead to increased costs for consumer goods such as refrigerators, cars, and air conditioners, creating a ripple effect on prices [9][11] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the tariff is a direct attempt by the government to shift costs from consumers and manufacturers to producers, aiming to rebuild the U.S. supply chain [7][11] - The copper tariff is being implemented in addition to existing tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are also used in similar products [11]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper semi-finished products and high-copper-content derivatives starting August 1, excluding refined copper and major products from this tax, which contradicts market expectations [1][3][6]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement - President Trump signed an announcement on July 30, imposing a 50% tariff on imports of copper semi-finished products such as copper pipes, wires, rods, and sheets, as well as high-copper-content derivatives like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [1][3]. - Refined copper and major products are excluded from the tariff, which was unexpected by the market, as there were anticipations that all imported refined metals would be taxed [1][3][6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange experienced a significant drop, with prices falling over 18% at one point, ultimately closing at $4.63 per pound, down approximately 17% [3][5]. - The announcement has been described as unexpectedly disruptive to international markets, indicating a volatile response from traders [3][5]. Group 3: Historical Context - Earlier in the year, Trump hinted at potential copper tariffs, which led to a notable increase in U.S. copper prices compared to global markets, resulting in a surge of copper products entering the U.S. [5][6]. - On July 8, after announcing a 50% tariff on all imported copper, copper futures saw a record single-day increase of 17%, reaching $5.89 per pound, marking the largest single-day price increase since 1989 [5][6]. Group 4: Trade Flow Implications - The exclusion of refined copper from the tariff is expected to further disrupt global copper trade flows, with significant quantities of copper products already shipped to the U.S. potentially being re-exported [6].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected announcement of a 50% tariff on certain copper imports by the U.S. government has led to a significant decline in copper prices, reversing previous gains in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. White House announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, effective August 1 [1]. - Following the announcement, Comex copper prices fell over 18%, with the September contract dropping to $4.445 per pound, a decline of 20.4% [2]. - The premium of U.S. copper over LME copper decreased to $104, down from over $3,000 in recent months [2]. Group 2: Price Adjustments and Future Outlook - The LME benchmark copper price fell by 0.03% to $9,695.5 per ton [3]. - Analysts suggest that the current price of $4.5 per pound for U.S. copper is reasonable, reflecting pre-tariff levels [4]. - There is an expectation that as U.S. inventories decrease and the impact of tariffs on downstream products is felt, Comex copper prices may rise again, potentially leading to a sustained U.S. premium [2].

Group 1 - The U.S. copper market experienced its largest single-day drop due to President Trump's unexpected announcement to exempt refined copper imports from the planned tariffs, shocking traders [1] - Starting August 1, a 50% tariff will be imposed on semi-finished copper products from China, while refined metal imports will not be subject to such tariffs [1][4] - Following the announcement, copper futures prices on the New York Commodity Exchange plummeted by 20%, with U.S. copper prices previously being about 28% higher than the London Metal Exchange benchmark [1] Group 2 - The decision to exclude refined copper from tariffs is likely to disrupt global trade flows of this metal, which is crucial for the global economy due to its extensive use in wire manufacturing [4] - The significant increase in copper prices earlier this month was driven by the announcement of the 50% tariff, which was double what most market participants expected, leading to record-high copper prices [4] - The distinction in tariff policy between refined metals and semi-finished products was influenced by lobbying from the copper industry, as major companies believe the U.S. cannot immediately replace all imported copper [4] Group 3 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has suggested delaying the imposition of import tariffs on refined metals, with an initial rate of 15% starting in 2027, increasing to 30% by 2028 [5] - President Trump has instructed the Secretary of Commerce to submit a report on the U.S. copper market by June 2026 to determine the necessity of phased-in universal import tariffs on refined copper [5] Group 4 - The announced 50% import tariffs will apply to semi-finished products such as copper pipes, wires, bars, sheets, and tubes, as well as copper-based goods like fittings, cables, connectors, and electrical components [8] - Unprocessed goods, including copper input materials and scrap copper, will not be subject to these tariffs [8] - The tariffs will not be cumulative with the separate tariffs on automobile imports implemented earlier this year [8] Group 5 - The White House will require that 25% of high-quality copper scrap and various raw copper products produced domestically must be sold within the U.S. [9] - This export requirement is not expected to have a significant short-term impact, as approximately 40% of copper scrap and 75% of copper concentrate is already processed domestically [9] - U.S. copper producers, such as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc., saw significant stock price declines due to the policy undermining the U.S. copper price advantage, while major suppliers like Chile's state-owned Codelco may benefit from the decision [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on imports from South Korea, a 25% tariff on goods from India, and a 40% tariff on Brazilian products, leading to a total tariff of 50% on Brazil [1][2] - The U.S. will also impose a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives starting August 1 [3][4] - The trade agreement with South Korea includes a commitment of $350 billion for U.S.-controlled investment projects and $100 billion in liquefied natural gas or other energy products [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-India trade deficit is significant, with a reported $458 billion surplus for India, and the total goods trade volume projected at $128.8 billion for 2024 [2] - The tariffs on Brazil exclude certain products such as wood pulp, oil products, and some fertilizers [2] - Following the announcement of tariffs, copper prices in New York fell nearly 20% [4]