来源：边解感 1月下旬，曾经在半导体设备领域呼风唤雨的荷兰巨头阿斯麦，正在启动一项规模惊人的"瘦身"计划， 预计将裁撤约1700个工作岗位。 繁荣假象下的战略泥潭 将时针拨回几年前，阿斯麦可谓风光无限。作为全球唯一能够制造极紫外（EUV）光刻机的企业，它 扼守着先进制程芯片制造的咽喉。 然而，这种繁荣建立在一个极其脆弱的基础之上。 财报数据不会撒谎。中国市场曾是阿斯麦最为倚重的现金奶牛，连续数个季度贡献了其接近一半的订 单。这是一个惊人的比例，意味着阿斯麦近半数的未来增长潜力源自东方的需求。 但是，华盛顿的一纸禁令，强行斩断了这条输血动脉。在霸权主义的胁迫下，荷兰方面步步退让，从最 初的EUV光刻机禁运，层层加码至成熟制程的DUV光刻机。 阿斯麦高层曾天真地以为，只要配合盟友的"安全关切"，就能换取政治上的安稳。但现实给了这种投机 心理一记响亮的耳光。 刀锋所指，竟是其赖以生存的研发与信息技术（IT）等核心部门。 对于一家以技术壁垒为护城河的高科技企业而言，削减研发大脑无异于自断经脉。外界看到的是巨头的 战术收缩，而明眼人看到的，则是地缘政治操弄下，一家顶级商业公司被霸权主义强行"阉割"后的必然 反噬。 这并 ...

机械行业周报 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 肖群稀(分析师) | 0755-23976830 | xiaoqunxi@gtht.com | S0880522120001 | | 黄龙(分析师) | 021-38031028 | huanglong@gtht.com | S0880525070027 | 本报告导读： 上周（2026/1/26-2026/1/30）AI 推动半导体设备需求不断增加，中国人形机器人集体 "问天"，商业航天政策支持与产业布局密集。 股 票 研 究 全球半导体设备龙头财报亮眼，北京国际商业航天展览会开幕 [Table_Industry] 机械行业 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行 业 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 机械行业《Figure 发布 Helix 02 模型，人形机器 人全身自主控制实现突破》2026.01.30 机械行业《SpaceX 与特斯拉规划部署太阳能产 能，光伏产业链迎发展新机遇》2026.01.26 机械行业《液态气周均价环比 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on cyclical recovery in sectors like engineering machinery, industrial gases, and shipping[1] - Growth sectors include embodied intelligence, controllable nuclear fusion, photovoltaic equipment, lithium battery equipment, semiconductor equipment, AIDC, and PCB equipment[1] - Optimism towards the U.S. market strategy due to easing trade disputes and potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[1] Group 2: Engineering Machinery Market - The global engineering machinery market is projected to reach $213.5 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2030[2] - Domestic excavator sales are expected to grow by 18% in 2025, reaching 118,518 units, while total excavator sales will increase by 17% to 235,257 units[2] - China's leading manufacturers are gaining global market share, with SANY's market value at approximately 10% of Caterpillar's as of January 2026[3] Group 3: Industrial Gases - The industrial gas market is expected to reach ¥1.3 trillion in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.8% over the next four years[19] - The competitive landscape is concentrated, with the top four global industrial gas companies holding a 54% market share[19] - Growth drivers include macroeconomic recovery and increased demand from sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy[19] Group 4: Semiconductor Equipment - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by 9% in 2026, reaching $760.7 billion, driven by AI demand[14] - Domestic semiconductor equipment demand is expected to rise due to increased production capacity and a focus on self-sufficiency[14] - Key investment areas include etching and thin-film equipment, as well as the domestic production of photolithography machines[15]

Group 1 - The company repurchased a total of 2,096,273 shares from February 8, 2024, to April 30, 2024, representing 0.33% of the total share capital, aimed at maintaining company value and shareholder rights [2] - The repurchased shares will be sold through centralized bidding within 12 months after the announcement of the repurchase results, and any unsold shares will be canceled if not utilized within three years [2] - The company successfully completed its share reduction plan by selling all 2,096,273 repurchased shares at an average price of 304.92 yuan per share by January 30, 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - The company plans to acquire a controlling stake in Hangzhou Zhonggui Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. through a combination of issuing shares and cash payments, while also raising supporting funds [7] - The valuation and transaction price for the assets involved in this acquisition have not yet been determined, and the transaction is not expected to constitute a major asset restructuring or related party transaction [7] - The company’s stock was suspended from trading starting December 19, 2025, due to uncertainties surrounding the transaction, with an expected suspension period of no more than 10 trading days [8]

Core Viewpoint - KLA Corporation (KLAC.US) experienced a significant drop of 10% in stock price, closing at $1513.01, despite reporting better-than-expected earnings for Q2 of fiscal year 2026, with revenue of $3.3 billion and adjusted EPS of $8.85 [1] Financial Performance - For Q2 of fiscal year 2026, KLA reported revenue of $3.3 billion and adjusted EPS of $8.85, both exceeding market expectations [1] - The guidance for Q3 indicates expected revenue of approximately $3.35 billion, with a fluctuation of $150 million, and non-GAAP diluted EPS expected to be around $9.08, with a fluctuation of $0.78 [1] Market Reaction - The market reaction to KLA's earnings report was negative, attributed to concerns over the company's valuation being at historical highs and a warning regarding the slowdown in revenue growth, which has been declining for three consecutive quarters [1] - Investors had anticipated stronger growth driven by artificial intelligence, which was not reflected in the company's guidance [1]

市场分析普遍认为，此次"业绩利好、股价走跌"的背离现象，主要源于投资者对科磊估值处于历史高位 的担忧，以及对公司营收增速已连续三个季度放缓的警惕。 智通财经APP获悉，周五，科磊(KLAC.US)大跌10%，报1513.01美元。消息面上，科磊公布，截至2025 年12月31日的2026财年第二财季营收33亿美元，调整后每股收益8.85美元，均超出市场预期。然而，科 磊对第三财季的业绩指引未能满足市场预期。该公司第三财季指引显示，预计收入为33.5亿美元上下浮 动1.5亿美元。非GAAP稀释后每股收益预计为9.08美元上下浮动0.78美元。这一指引未能满足市场对加 速增长的期待。增长幅度相对温和，未能体现出人工智能驱动下的强劲加速态势。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jingce Electronics, forecasts a significant increase in net profit for 2025, driven by advancements in semiconductor equipment and a strong market position in the semiconductor measurement sector [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be between 80 million and 90 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 181.97% to 192.21% [1]. - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is anticipated to be between 21.657 million and 31.657 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 113.66% to 119.97% [1]. Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The company is capitalizing on the critical window for domestic semiconductor equipment replacement, enhancing its leading position in the semiconductor measurement field [1]. - Key products in the semiconductor front-end measurement sector, such as thickness measurement series, OCD equipment, and electron beam equipment, are leading in the domestic industry [2]. - Advanced process products, particularly those for 7nm and below, are increasingly contributing to the company's revenue and order volume, becoming the core driver of performance [2]. Group 3: Display Industry - The flat panel display industry is experiencing a recovery, with steady demand for terminal applications, benefiting the company from the expansion of LCD and OLED production capacities [3]. - The company is deepening cooperation with major clients and exploring traditional display market demands while also expanding into new display technologies and precision optical instruments [3]. - The flat panel display testing business has seen rapid growth, with an increase in gross margin and significant improvement in profitability due to optimized customer and product structures [3].

Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, ASML reported revenue of €9.718 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 29.3%, aligning with guidance expectations of €9.2-9.8 billion [2][3] - Equipment revenue was €7.584 billion, up 6.6% year-on-year and 36.6% quarter-on-quarter, while service revenue was €2.134 billion, down 0.6% year-on-year but up 8.8% quarter-on-quarter [3] - The gross margin for Q4 2025 was 52.2%, which is within the guidance range of 50%-52% [3][14] Orders and Market Demand - Q4 2025 saw a record order intake of €13.158 billion, a year-on-year increase of 85.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 143.7%, with significant contributions from EUV orders [2][3] - The demand for EUV technology is driven by strong growth in AI-related capacity construction in data centers and infrastructure, which is gradually extending to high-end logic and storage chip customers [16] - The order breakdown included €7.4 billion in EUV orders, up 146.7% year-on-year and 105.6% quarter-on-quarter, indicating robust demand in the logic and storage sectors [3][16] Regional Performance - Revenue from mainland China in Q4 2025 was €2.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.1% but a decrease in revenue share to 36% [4] - Revenue from Taiwan was €986 million, up 38.5% year-on-year, while revenue from the US was €1.289 billion, down 35.3% year-on-year [4] Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, ASML expects revenue to be between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 51%-53% [5][13] - The company anticipates significant growth in EUV business for 2026, with total annual revenue projected between €34 billion and €39 billion [5][6] - Long-term guidance remains unchanged, with expectations for revenue to reach between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, and gross margins to improve to 56%-60% [6] Technological Advancements - ASML achieved significant progress in 2025, with the NXE:3800E model becoming a core production device for customers, achieving a wafer throughput of 220 wafers per hour [17] - The company is also enhancing existing EUV equipment to improve capacity, with expectations for increased market utilization of low numerical aperture EUV technology [17] Industry Trends - The market outlook has improved significantly, with strong demand for AI-related capacity in data centers and infrastructure, which is expected to drive growth in high-end logic and storage chips [16] - Customers are transitioning from 4nm to 3nm technology and expanding 2nm capacity to meet future demands in mobile devices and high-performance computing [16]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangfeng Electronics plans to acquire control of Kaide Quartz, marking the first "A-share acquisition of A-share" in 2026, which may enhance its precision components business in the semiconductor sector [3][4]. Group 1: Company Overview - Jiangfeng Electronics, established in 2005, specializes in ultra-pure metal sputtering targets and has achieved mass application in chip manufacturing for 7nm, 5nm, and 3nm technology nodes, serving major clients like TSMC and SMIC [5]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.291 billion yuan in the first three quarters of the previous year, a year-on-year increase of 25.37%, and a net profit of 400 million yuan, up 39.72% year-on-year [5]. - Kaide Quartz, founded in 1997, focuses on the research, production, and sales of quartz glass products, with its main products widely used in the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Kaide Quartz has experienced a decline in net profit since 2023, with a year-on-year decrease of 29.61% in 2023 and 13.31% in 2024. In the first three quarters of 2025, it reported a revenue of 22.2 million yuan, down 4.22%, and a net profit of 2.224 million yuan, down 24.57% [6]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The merger and acquisition market is becoming increasingly active, driven by policies and the need for technological advancements, particularly in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors and biomedicine [7][9]. - The integration of leading companies in the semiconductor sector is accelerating, with various strategic acquisitions enhancing industry collaboration and supply chain resilience [8][9].

Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index decreased by 1.3% this week, the CSI Chip Industry Index fell by 2.1%, and the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index dropped by 5.2% [1][3] - The semiconductor equipment ETF managed by E Fund (159558) attracted over 200 million yuan this week [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - China Galaxy Securities reported that the semiconductor equipment sector has shown positive performance this month, driven by sustained AI computing power demand, an upward cycle in storage chips, and the penetration of advanced packaging technologies [1] - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to continue growing, with TSMC projecting capital expenditures of $52 billion to $56 billion in 2026, a significant increase from $40.9 billion in 2025, highlighting further market opportunities in semiconductor equipment [1] Group 3: Index Valuation - The rolling price-to-sales ratio for the CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index is 5.3, while the price-to-book ratios for the CSI Chip Industry Index and the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index are 7.9 and 8.0, respectively [3] - The valuation percentiles for these indices are 99.6% for the CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index, 92.9% for the CSI Chip Industry Index, and 80.7% for the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index [3] Group 4: Historical Performance - Over the past month, the CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index has increased by 12.4%, the CSI Chip Industry Index by 16.1%, and the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index by 19.9% [8] - Year-to-date, the CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index has risen by 12.4%, the CSI Chip Industry Index by 16.1%, and the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index by 19.9% [8] - The one-year cumulative growth rates are 73.2% for the CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index, 70.6% for the CSI Chip Industry Index, and 88.7% for the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index [8]