Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for 汇彩控股 (1180.HK) due to the recovery in the Macau tourism and gaming sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities [10]. Core Viewpoints - The number of inbound tourists to Macau has significantly increased post-pandemic, with a year-on-year growth of 23.8% in 2024, reaching 34.92 million visitors [2][9]. - Macau's gaming revenue is also recovering, with a 23.9% year-on-year increase in gross gaming revenue in 2024, amounting to 226.78 billion MOP [2][9]. - The gaming industry is transitioning from a reliance on "VIP" gaming to a more diversified revenue model, as indicated by the decline in the share of "VIP baccarat" from 56.7% in 2017-2019 to 24.1% in 2024 [5][10]. Summary by Sections Tourism Recovery - Inbound tourist numbers to Macau have shown a strong recovery, with 12.9% growth in the first four months of 2025 compared to the previous year [2][9]. - The total number of inbound tourists for 2024 was 34.92 million, reflecting a robust recovery in the tourism sector [2][9]. Gaming Revenue Trends - Macau's gross gaming revenue for 2024 was 226.78 billion MOP, marking a 23.9% increase year-on-year [2][9]. - For the first five months of 2025, the cumulative gross gaming revenue was 97.71 billion MOP, with a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [2][9]. Industry Evolution - The gaming industry is moving towards a more diversified revenue structure, reducing dependence on "VIP" gaming, as evidenced by the significant drop in its revenue share [5][10]. - The Macau government is promoting a diversified tourism strategy, aiming to reduce reliance on single-source revenue streams [5][10]. Company Performance - 汇彩控股 reported a revenue of 1.085 billion HKD in 2024, a 71.0% increase year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 535.6% to 361 million HKD [9][10]. - The company has established itself as a key supplier of gaming equipment, particularly in the live gaming segment, benefiting from the growing demand for "live mixed games" [9][10].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rebound in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index closing down by 0.57% and 0.70% respectively [1] - The Hang Seng Index opened lower, dropping over 2% at one point, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 3% during the day [1] - By the end of the trading session, the declines in the indices narrowed [3] Sector Performance - Consumer services, durable goods, and medical equipment and services sectors showed strong performance, with increases of 5.44%, 3.65%, and 1.86% respectively [4] - Conversely, coal, household goods, and paper and packaging sectors faced declines, with drops of 2.38%, 1.83%, and 1.75% respectively [4] Notable Stocks - In the consumer services sector, "Snow King" Mixue Group's stock price reached a historical high, with a market capitalization exceeding 220 billion HKD [8] - Pop Mart's stock rose over 4%, nearing a market capitalization of 310 billion HKD [1][7] - Sands China Ltd. and Chow Tai Fook both saw increases of over 4% and 3% respectively [4] Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index have increased by 15.44%, 14.67%, and 14.91% respectively [6] - Despite the upward trend, Hong Kong stocks are still considered undervalued compared to international peers, with expectations for continued upward movement driven by domestic policy support [6] Future Outlook - The inclusion of Mixue Group in the Hang Seng Composite Index, effective June 9, is anticipated to enhance its visibility and investment appeal [10] - There is potential for increased capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks through the Stock Connect program, indicating a positive outlook for the market [6]

Group 1 - The current interest rate environment, with rates above 5%, is creating both challenges and opportunities in the market, particularly affecting growth stock valuations in the US and liquidity in Hong Kong stocks [1][3] - Companies with strong cash flow, such as subscription-based software firms and industrial giants, are well-positioned to navigate the current economic climate, with Microsoft averaging over $60 billion in operating cash flow annually over the past three years [3] - In the Hong Kong market, investors should focus on "interest rate immune" stocks, such as Macau gaming stocks, which are benefiting from consumer recovery and have already absorbed pressure from dollar-denominated debt [3] Group 2 - Asset allocation strategies should involve a "dynamic balancing" approach, increasing exposure to high-dividend Hong Kong state-owned enterprises when US Treasury yields rise, and gradually shifting to US biotech stocks when interest rate expectations ease [3][5] - Currency fluctuations can be leveraged as a tool for investment, with Hong Kong dollar-denominated assets providing natural hedging advantages, such as Southeast Asian REITs listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3] - Investors are encouraged to view the interest rate cycle as a stress test for their portfolios, utilizing intelligent allocation systems to identify valuation discrepancies across markets, such as the historical dividend premium of Hong Kong telecom giants [5]

Summary of International Game Technology Italy Lotto Tender Update Conference Call Company and Industry - **Company**: International Game Technology (IGT) - **Industry**: Lottery and Gaming Key Points and Arguments Lotto License Update - IGT announced a new nine-year license for the Italian Lotto, extending operations through November 2034 [5][15] - The upfront license fee is $2.23 billion, significantly higher than the previous fee, reflecting the expected value creation [6][15] - IGT has managed the Lotto business for over 30 years, providing exceptional returns for both the Italian government and shareholders [5][6] Revenue and Growth Strategy - IGT plans to grow revenue and cash flows by investing in the existing iLottery business and developing a new B2C digital iCasino and sports betting platform [6][14] - The company aims to increase iLottery penetration in Italy, which currently lags behind other high lottery markets, with a 26% CAGR over the last five years [8][11] - IGT's digital strategy includes the My Lotteries app, which is currently the most downloaded gaming app in Italy, designed to enhance player experience and engagement [11][12] Financial Metrics and Projections - The new B2C digital distribution licenses will earn an 8% gross fee on all wagers, in addition to the current 6% concession rate [15][46] - IGT expects to generate cash flows similar to the previous nine years despite the higher upfront fee, justifying the investment [24] - Approximately $150 million in CapEx is required to upgrade Lotto infrastructure, with an additional $30 million for the new digital distribution model [16][15] Market Penetration and Player Engagement - IGT has identified significant cross-selling opportunities between lottery players and digital gaming, with a 25% overlap between digital lottery players and those engaged in iCasino and sports betting [12][45] - The company aims to enhance the retail experience through state-of-the-art technology and a robust point of sale network, which includes 35,000 outlets [10][40] Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The company recognizes the competitive nature of the lottery industry, with only a few players capable of managing large-scale operations [70] - IGT is committed to leveraging its technology and expertise to drive growth in both retail and digital segments, aiming to align iLottery penetration with European benchmarks [14][64] - The management expressed confidence in achieving compelling IRR consistent with planned returns on large contracts, supported by digital expansion and operational efficiencies [47][48] Additional Considerations - The company is not planning to enter the retail side of the B2C business but will focus on enhancing its digital offerings [78] - Future capital allocation plans will be discussed as the company approaches the closing of the Voyager transaction, with a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [51][53] Conclusion - IGT is optimistic about the future of the Lotto business in Italy, with a clear strategy to enhance digital offerings and drive growth through innovation and technology [99]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies within the discretionary consumption sector, indicating a positive outlook for their performance relative to the market [1][3][5]. Core Insights - The pet and U.S. hotel sectors have shown the best performance this week, with valuations in most sectors still below the average of the past five years [1][4][13]. - The report highlights that the average increase for leading companies in the pet sector was 9.1%, driven by favorable trade negotiations and the commencement of the 618 pre-sale [4][15][17]. - Valuation analysis indicates that most sub-sectors are trading below their historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [5][9][19]. Sector Performance Review - Weekly performance rankings: Pet > U.S. Hotel > Credit Card > Cosmetics > Gambling > Sportswear > Luxury Goods > Snacks [7][14]. - Monthly performance rankings: Pet > U.S. Hotel > Gambling > Cosmetics > Sportswear > Credit Card > Luxury Goods > Snacks [14]. - Year-to-date (YTD) performance rankings: Pet > Luxury Goods > Cosmetics > Snacks > Credit Card > U.S. Hotel > Sportswear > Gambling [14]. Valuation Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the expected P/E ratios for various sectors are as follows: - Sportswear: 15.6x (77% of 5-year average) - Luxury Goods: 18.4x (52% of 5-year average) - Gambling: 14.2x (23% of 5-year average) - Cosmetics: 36.8x (91% of 5-year average) - Pet: 50x (51% of 5-year average) - Snacks: 24.3x (37% of 5-year average) - U.S. Hotel: 29.4x (18% of 5-year average) - Credit Card: 32x (61% of 5-year average) [5][9][18][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady performance in Q1, with a 11% year-on-year increase in visitor numbers to Macau and a 9% quarter-on-quarter increase. The total gaming revenue in Macau for Q1 was HKD 56 billion, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth [1] - The company is confident in its long-term prospects, as evidenced by plans to increase the dividend payout ratio to 50% and distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.5 per share in June 2025 [2] - The opening of the Capella hotel is expected to attract high-end customers, enhancing the luxury hotel experience in Macau [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 net revenue reached HKD 11.2 billion, a 6.2% year-on-year increase, with gaming and non-gaming segments contributing HKD 8.9 billion and HKD 1.6 billion respectively [1] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q1 grew by 16.3% to HKD 3.3 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 29.4%, up by 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 46.1 billion, HKD 50.0 billion, and HKD 54.7 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.1%, 8.5%, and 9.3% [3][4] Market Position and Events - The company has increased its market share during the May Day holiday, with a series of events planned for Q2 expected to drive demand further [2] - Upcoming major events include concerts by BTS and G-Dragon, which are anticipated to positively impact Q2 performance [2] Valuation Metrics - The current market capitalization corresponds to a 9.7x EV/EBITDA for 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [3] - Financial ratios such as P/B are projected to decrease from 2.0 in 2023 to 1.5 by 2027, suggesting improving value over time [4][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady performance in Q1, with a 6.2% year-on-year increase in net revenue to HKD 11.2 billion, driven by a significant increase in visitor numbers and entertainment events in Macau [1][2] - The opening of the Capella hotel is expected to attract high-end customers and set a new benchmark for luxury hotels in Macau, enhancing the company's appeal to ultra-high-net-worth individuals [3] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 50%, reflecting confidence in its long-term prospects [2] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 visitor numbers in Macau increased by 11% year-on-year and 9% quarter-on-quarter, with a 64% increase in traffic attributed to major entertainment events [1] - Q1 adjusted EBITDA grew by 16.3% to HKD 3.3 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 29.4%, up 2.6 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 46.1 billion, HKD 50.0 billion, and HKD 54.7 billion, representing year-on-year growth rates of 6.1%, 8.5%, and 9.3% respectively [3][4] Market Position and Events - The company has increased its market share during the May Day holiday, with a series of events expected to drive demand in Q2, including concerts and international competitions [2] - The company is set to host several high-profile events, including concerts by BTS and G-Dragon, which are anticipated to further boost performance [2] Valuation Metrics - The current market capitalization is approximately HKD 140.2 billion, with an EV/EBITDA multiple of 9.7x for 2025 estimates [4][5] - The projected return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 10.1% in 2023 to 14.6% by 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with total gaming revenue reaching HKD 10.94 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.6% [5] - The company has seen a significant increase in market share, with VIP and mass market gaming revenue growing by 52.3% and 7.6% respectively [5] - The opening of the Capella hotel in early May is expected to attract high-end consumers, with over 50% of guests being direct VIP customers [5] - The company forecasts revenue growth for 2025-2027, with total revenue projected at HKD 48.27 billion in 2025, HKD 51.38 billion in 2026, and HKD 53.17 billion in 2027 [5][6] Financial Projections - Total revenue (in million HKD) for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E is projected to be 43,432.0, 48,273.2, 51,381.2, and 53,165.0 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.7%, 11.1%, 6.4%, and 3.5% [6] - Adjusted property EBITDA (in million HKD) is expected to be 12,187.6 for 2024A, 14,248.0 for 2025E, 15,667.8 for 2026E, and 16,136.9 for 2027E, with growth rates of 28.3%, 31.4%, 11.1%, and 2.0% respectively [6] - The diluted earnings per share (in HKD) are projected to be 2.00 for 2024A, 2.65 for 2025E, 3.09 for 2026E, and 3.17 for 2027E [6] Market Data - The closing price of the stock is HKD 32.00, with a market capitalization of HKD 139,997 million [3][4] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 1.84 and a current EV/Adjusted Property EBITDA of 10.24 for 2024A, decreasing to 7.74 by 2027E [4][6]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks continue to rise, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as Melco International Development (+6.63%), Galaxy Entertainment (+4.07%), Wynn Macau (+1.64%), and Sands China (+1.28%) [1] - Melco International Development reported a total operating revenue of $1.23 billion for Q1 2025, representing an approximate 11% year-on-year increase, attributed to improved performance in both gaming and non-gaming operations [1] - Galaxy Entertainment announced a net revenue of HKD 11.2 billion for Q1 2025, up 6% year-on-year but down 1% quarter-on-quarter, with adjusted EBITDA rising 16% year-on-year to HKD 3.3 billion [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley reported that Macau's gaming revenue for the first five days of May reached MOP 1.02 billion, achieving a strong 12% year-on-year growth despite a high base from the previous year, recovering to over 90% of pre-pandemic levels [2] - The reported figures significantly exceeded the expected daily average of MOP 850 million, marking the largest positive surprise in years, with growth particularly encouraging [2] - Over half of Macau's gaming operators have released their Q1 results, but the current financial reports are expected to have limited impact on stock prices, with focus shifting to management's insights on the sustainability of the Golden Week's performance and detailed operational data from various operators [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to the continuous increase in market share, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Melco International Development for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 2% to HKD 14.01 billion and HKD 13.45 billion respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a 5x EV/adjusted EBITDA for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 48% compared to the current stock price [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, Melco Resorts reported net revenue of USD 1.232 billion, an increase of 11% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 89% of Q1 2019 levels [2] - The adjusted property EBITDA for Q1 2025 was USD 341 million, up 14% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of USD 315 million [2] - The performance is attributed to the increase in market share at City of Dreams and Studio City in Macau [2] Group 3 - Management indicated that the market share in Macau reached 15.7% in April 2025, with high-end mass gaming continuing to drive performance growth [3] - The show "The House of Dancing Water" premiered at City of Dreams on May 7, 2025 [3] - Management expects the reinvestment rate in the Macau gaming industry to stabilize compared to a year ago [3] Group 4 - During the May Day Golden Week in 2025, the betting volume in Macau properties was strong, with a 20% year-on-year increase in mass gaming at City of Dreams, supported by a 30% increase in property foot traffic [4] - The win amount from rated customers in Macau properties increased by 12% year-on-year [4]