登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 证券代码：600346 证券简称：恒力石化 公告编号：2025-061 恒力石化股份有限公司 2025年半年度权益分派实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ■ 本次利润分配方案经公司2025年9月9日的2025年第三次临时股东会审议通过。 2.分派对象： 截至股权登记日下午上海证券交易所收市后，在中国证券登记结算有限责任公司上海分公司（以下简 称"中国结算上海分公司"）登记在册的本公司全体股东。 3.分配方案： 本次利润分配以方案实施前的公司总股本7,039,099,786股为基数，每股派发现金红利0.08元（含税）， 共计派发现金红利563,127,982.88元。 三、相关日期 ■ 四、分配实施办法 1.实施办法 （1）无限售条件流通股的红利委托中国结算上海分公司通过其资金清算系统向股权登记日上海证券交 易所收市后登记在册并在上海证券交易所各会员办理了指定交易的股东派发。已办理指定交易的投资者 可于红利发放日在其指定的证券营业部领取现金红 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guangxi is accelerating the integration of industrial and supply chains with ASEAN, leveraging its unique geographical advantages and resources to enhance cross-border cooperation and economic development [1][4]. Group 1: Trade and Economic Data - In the first eight months of this year, China's imports and exports with ASEAN reached 4.93 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.7% [1]. - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor has seen container shipments exceed 1 million TEUs this year, representing a 72.5% year-on-year growth [2]. Group 2: Industrial Development - The establishment of a 100 billion yuan petrochemical industrial park in Qinzhou and the development of industrial clusters in Fangchenggang have contributed significantly to the region's economy [2]. - The China-ASEAN Artificial Intelligence Innovation Cooperation Center in Nanning has signed 51 domestic and international AI projects, with 40 already operational, attracting 16 enterprises from six ASEAN countries [2]. Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - Guangxi has improved its logistics efficiency, with over 80 international and domestic container shipping routes established from Beibu Gulf Port [3]. - The region has 13 international road freight routes confirmed with Vietnam, and seven international air freight routes connecting to ASEAN and South Asia [3]. Group 4: Future Plans and Strategies - Guangxi aims to implement high-quality development actions for key manufacturing industry chains, enhancing the integration of industrial and supply chains with ASEAN [4]. - The strategy includes creating cross-regional and cross-border supply chains that combine Eastern R&D and design with Guangxi manufacturing and ASEAN markets [4].

Consumption - Service consumption continues to decline, while durable goods consumption shows weakness[5] - Food and clothing consumption sees seasonal increases, but overall demand remains weak[5] - Movie attendance and box office revenue drop to historical lows, indicating reduced consumer interest[6] Investment - Real estate sector remains weak, with new home sales not showing sustained improvement despite policy optimizations in major cities[15] - Infrastructure investment shows marginal recovery, but overall funding remains below last year's levels[15] Trade and Export - Domestic export prices continue to decline, with a decrease of 2.1% in export freight rates, indicating a retreat from technical rush shipments[22] - Port activity increases with the upcoming Christmas stocking season, reflecting a rise in overseas demand[22] Production - Overall production heat is recovering, with significant increases in coal consumption and steel production rates[25] - The operating rate for PTA has rebounded significantly, driven by increased demand in the textile sector[27] Prices and Inflation - CPI remains stable, while PPI shows a general decline, with industrial prices mostly decreasing[37] - Cement prices have dropped by 2.0% due to weak construction demand, while copper and aluminum prices have increased by 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively[37] Liquidity - The 10-year government bond yield rises to 1.86%, the highest level in 2025, reflecting strong equity market performance and improved inflation data[39] - The overall liquidity remains stable, with a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan through reverse repos by the central bank[39] Risks - Trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical risks pose significant threats to market stability[46]

根据卓创资讯监测，2025年8月，山东纯苯供应缺口约33.69万吨，而2024年山东地区月均缺口量仅为 27.66万吨。 9月中下旬来看，一方面山东本地多数下游工厂开工负荷稳定，纯苯需求稳定，另一方面，由于多数下 游仍存一定现货采购需求，双节前"备货需求"仍有望对局部市场价格带来一定提振。 究其原因，近期北方纯苯市场供需关系略偏强，成为支撑价格的主要因素。 具体来看，8月份以后，一方面鲁西南炼厂检修，局部供应减少，叠加苯加氢行业亏损压力增大，月内 行业开工最大下滑10个百分点至54%附近，导致纯苯供应同步减少。另一方面，8月份京博石化新增年 产67万吨苯乙烯装置投入运行，北方纯苯需求量呈现增长趋势。 近两年，伴随山东陆续有新增下游装置投放，但供应增量一般，市场供应缺口近两年呈现增长趋势，成 为支撑市场的重要因素。根据卓创资讯监测数据，7-8月，山东纯苯供应缺口扩大后目前仍维持高位， 预计9月份缺口量或有继续扩大趋势，对当地市场价格形成有力支撑。 8月份以来，国内纯苯市场呈现高位震荡走低，且山东市场价格略高于华东市场的局面。9月中旬开始， 伴随双节临近，北方纯苯市场的供需关系对价格支撑再次增强，山东纯苯市场低位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on PET starting September 8, causing turmoil in the Asian PET market and prompting producers to reassess the impact on trade flows [1][2] Group 1: Impact on Asian Producers - Asian PET producers, previously benefiting from tariff exemptions, are now facing challenges in maintaining competitive pricing for exports to the U.S. [1] - Southeast Asian PET producers are heavily reliant on U.S. demand, making the tariff a significant negative impact on their operations [1] - The price of recycled PET in Southeast Asia was reported at $840 per ton on September 9, which may further depress market prices [1] Group 2: Trade Flow Adjustments - Some Asian producers may redirect their exports to India, which is already experiencing weak domestic demand for PET [1] - The potential influx of cheaper PET into India could exacerbate the already struggling Indian PET market [1] Group 3: Upstream Effects - The tariffs are expected to weaken the demand for upstream raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [1] - Indian producers have reduced their operating rates due to high costs and weak global demand, with the overall operating rate of Indian PET facilities at approximately 70% [1] Group 4: Cost Competitiveness - The imposition of tariffs on para-xylene, PTA, and PET by the U.S. is likely to force adjustments in procurement strategies among affected companies [2] - Cost competitiveness will be a dominant factor influencing trade flows in the coming months, with current offshore prices for Northeast Asia PET at $765 per ton and Southeast Asia at $850 per ton as of September 3 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current expansion cycle of ethylene in China is ongoing, with overseas production capacity facing accelerated exit pressure. A turning point for ethylene is expected post-2027 based on global capacity deployment plans [1] Industry Summary - Ethylene is currently in an expansion phase in China, indicating growth potential in the sector [1] - There is an anticipated turning point for ethylene production after 2027, contingent on global capacity deployment strategies [1] - Domestic and international policies that effectively control the total new ethylene capacity and restructure outdated production capacity could expedite the industry's turning point [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese ethylene industry is currently in an expansion phase, with a projected capacity increase of nearly 25 million tons over the next three years. However, a significant supply gap of over 21 million tons is expected to persist until 2024, with an import dependency rate of 31% [2][5][28]. Group 1: Current Industry Status - China's ethylene capacity has grown from 28.54 million tons in 2019 to 53.74 million tons in 2024, with a net increase of over 25 million tons driven by the expansion of private refining and integrated projects [5][7]. - Despite rapid capacity expansion, the import dependency for downstream products remains high, with polyethylene and ethylene glycol import dependency rates at 34% and 26%, respectively [5][8]. - The planned capacity for new projects from 2025 to 2027 totals 24.82 million tons, with expected annual increases of 20%, 12%, and 9% for those years [7][25]. Group 2: Global Supply Dynamics - The global ethylene supply landscape is undergoing a transformation, with an estimated net increase in global capacity of approximately 1.13 million tons in 2025, 1.57 million tons in 2026, and 840,000 tons in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 4.9%, 6.5%, and 3.3% respectively [3][25]. - Significant capacity exits are anticipated in Europe and Japan, with a total of 597 to 830 million tons expected to be shut down between 2025 and 2027, representing 3-4% of global capacity [2][24][25]. - The exit of older, less competitive capacity in Europe and Japan is driven by high production costs, with European ethylene production costs estimated at $885 per ton, significantly higher than the $200-$350 per ton costs in the U.S. and Middle East [16][19]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The ethylene industry is expected to reach a turning point post-2027, with potential marginal improvements in the market as new capacity aligns more closely with demand growth, which has historically been around 3.5% annually [3][25]. - If domestic and international policies effectively control new capacity and restructure older facilities, the industry may see accelerated recovery and a shift towards net exports by 2027 [39][40]. - The Chinese ethylene market is projected to account for approximately 35% of global capacity by 2027-2028, with a significant portion of new capacity concentrated in China and the Middle East [28][29].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a new round of interest rate cuts, with a 95% probability of a 25 basis point "preventive rate cut" in September [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Rate Cuts - Historical analysis shows that "preventive rate cuts" and "recessionary rate cuts" have different impacts on major asset prices [3][4]. - Following preventive rate cuts, A-shares benefit from liquidity easing and improved risk appetite, particularly in sectors like TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications), food and beverage, social services, beauty care, and biomedicine [4][8]. - In contrast, during recessionary rate cuts, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks tend to decline due to global economic downturns, with defensive assets like non-bank financials, banks, and cyclical sectors such as petrochemicals and chemicals performing better [4][8]. Group 2: Sector Performance Analysis - Under preventive rate cuts, various sectors show significant average price changes: - Technology sector (Electronics) sees an average increase of 19.07% over 10 days, 35.64% over 30 days, and 33.10% over 60 days [8]. - Consumer sectors (Food & Beverage) experience increases of 16.14%, 22.26%, and 19.22% respectively [8]. - For recessionary rate cuts, sectors like non-essential consumer goods and technology also perform well, but defensive sectors like energy and telecommunications gain prominence [9]. Group 3: Broader Market Implications - The U.S. stock market is expected to respond positively to preventive rate cuts, with fundamentals driving overall market performance [9]. - The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields are influenced by the same dynamics, with preventive cuts initially suppressing the dollar but later leading to an upward trend as fundamentals improve [11][14]. - Gold prices may initially rise due to liquidity easing but could decline as economic expectations improve and the dollar strengthens [16].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guidelines for Promoting Digital Transformation in Key Industries (2025 Edition)" on September 16 [1] - The guidelines include scenario maps for 14 key industries, such as steel, petrochemicals, engineering machinery, new energy vehicles, robotics, medical equipment, home appliances, sugar production, liquor, beauty and daily chemicals, lithium batteries, printed circuit boards (PCB), smart mobile terminals, and civil explosives [1] - The document emphasizes the dynamic updating of scenario maps based on technological advancements and industry developments [1] - Other industries are encouraged to explore the construction of "one map and four lists" [1]

国民经略 . 在这里，读懂中国经济、城市和楼市 本文来自微信公众号： 国民经略 （ID：guominjinglve） ，作者：凯风，题图来自：AI生成 城市经济天花板，又抬高了。 以下文章来源于国民经略 ，作者凯风 日前召开的主题发布会透露，"十四五"收官时 （2025年末） ，北京GDP将站上5万亿台阶。 这意味着，继上海之后，北京将成为全国第二个5万亿城市，与深圳、广州、香港等拉开差距。 北京上海经济为何这么猛？广深能否再次迎头赶上？ 一、京沪GDP迈进5万亿，意味着 什么？ 环顾国际，180多个国家和地区中，GDP超过5万亿 （约7000亿美元） 的仅有20多个。 这一数字，超过瑞典、比利时、泰国等国家，一城可敌一国，说是"富可敌国"不算夸张。 放眼国内，GDP超过5万亿的省份只有11个，京沪GDP已超近2/3省域。 京沪是省级的直辖市，也是严格意义上的城市，属于万亿俱乐部的领头羊。 目前，我国内地共有27个万亿GDP城市，未来几年有望扩容到30席。 毕竟，同为万亿城市，但经济梯度相当明显： 5万亿的京沪，4万亿的深广渝，2万亿的苏成杭武，1.5万亿~2万亿还有6座城市，万亿区间更有10多 座城市。 当 ...