Group 1: Company Operations - The overall production and operation of the park are normal, with a strong focus on safety management and energy conservation to enhance integrated advantages [2] - The company is adjusting production strategies in response to market changes and policy developments to maximize economic benefits [2] Group 2: Market Conditions - In Q1 2026, chemical product prices fluctuated due to international situations, oil price volatility, and changes in demand from upstream and downstream industries [2] - Some chemical product prices have recently increased significantly, and the company is adjusting its operations to maintain a balance between production and sales [2] Group 3: Joint Ventures and Development - A joint venture was established with Cangzhou Dahua and Sinochem International to mitigate competitive pressures and integrate sales resources in the polycarbonate sector [3] - The company plans to apply high standards in the development of the northern park, leveraging experiences from the southern integrated chemical park [3] Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The market price of chemical products is influenced by various uncertain factors, making predictions challenging [3] - The company aims to enhance product quality, manage costs effectively, and seize market opportunities to achieve production and sales balance [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-03-12甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 1、基本面：上周国内甲醇价格强势走高，主要为外部宏观因素共振驱动。基本面来看，内地供应稳定，进口预期进一 步减量，需关注内地流入沿海情况，周末期间内地转单涨幅在50-70元/吨左右，交投氛围积极，部分贸易商除套盘以外 还有建仓情况。当前中东地缘冲突持续升级且无缓和迹象，叠加霍尔木兹海峡通航受限，供应趋紧担忧驱动油价大幅走 高，将继续拉升化工品跟涨，短期甲醇期现市场延续上涨，需关注下游买盘跟进情况；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2670元/吨，05合约基差12，现货贴升水期货；偏多 3、库存：截至2026年2月26日，华东、华南港口甲醇 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company achieved significant growth in 2025, with revenue reaching 16.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.36 billion yuan, up 181% year-on-year [1][2] - The lithium battery materials business saw a rapid increase in sales volume, driven primarily by the electric vehicle sector, with total sales of lithium materials reaching 1.046 million tons, a 32% increase year-on-year [2] - The company is expanding its production capacity, with plans to build a new energy materials industrial park in Yichang, Hubei, with an investment of up to 2.1 billion yuan [3] - The company is focusing on leading research and development in electrolyte solutions, achieving strong sales growth of over 720,000 tons, a 44% increase year-on-year [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.9%, and a net profit of 940 million yuan, up 546% year-on-year [1] - The lithium-ion battery materials segment generated revenue of 15.05 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 21.27%, an increase of 3.82 percentage points year-on-year [2] Production Capacity and Expansion - The company is strategically enhancing its lithium-ion battery materials business, with a focus on high-end production capacity in the lithium iron phosphate sector [3] - The new industrial park project aims to produce 1 million tons of iron source and 300,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate annually, further solidifying the company's market position [3] Market Outlook and Profit Forecast - The report projects significant profit growth for the company, with net profits expected to reach 6.18 billion yuan in 2026, 7.53 billion yuan in 2027, and 9.68 billion yuan in 2028, reflecting substantial increases from previous years [4][5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 3.04 yuan in 2026, 3.70 yuan in 2027, and 4.76 yuan in 2028 [5]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年3月11日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格上涨100元/吨。供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.97个百分点至81.11%，PVC 开工率转而减少，但仍处于近年同期中性偏高水平。春节假期后第二周，PVC下游平均开工率回升 18.73个百分点至35.84%，较去年农历同期增加3.14个百分点，目前春节假期结束，下游陆续复产。 出口方面，由于亚洲市场价格上涨，出口询单有所好转。社会库存在春节假期期间增加较多，上周 继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。春节假期结束第 二周，商品房成交环比有所回落，仍处于历年同期偏低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。期货仓单仍处 高位。社会库存继续增加。不过生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻关等关键环节，加快推动 聚氯乙烯行业无汞化转型，加上市场对于春节后仍有政策及检修预期，下游需求陆续恢复，霍尔木 兹海峡仍未恢复通航，PVC上游原料供应紧张，PVC现货市场再次出现封盘现象，化工品集体情绪高 涨下 ...

Company and Industry Summary Company Overview - The company is involved in the production of electrolyte solutions, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) materials, and solid-state battery components, with a focus on the lithium battery supply chain. Key Points Industry and Market Position - The company maintains a market share of 38%-39% in the electrolyte segment, with a domestic production capacity of 280,000 tons nearly completed. Future growth will focus on overseas markets, with factories in Morocco and the USA expected to be operational by 2027-2028 [2][13]. - The projected market demand for hexafluorophosphate lithium (LiPF6) in 2026 is estimated to be between 330,000 to 350,000 tons, with an annual growth rate of 25%-35% [22]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 16.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%. Net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.362 billion yuan, up 181% [3]. - The electrolyte business was the main contributor to revenue growth, with sales exceeding 720,000 tons, a 45% increase year-on-year. The net profit per ton for electrolytes was over 2,000 yuan, doubling from 2024 [2][3]. Product Pricing and Profitability - The pricing of electrolytes is linked to lithium carbonate prices and is negotiated semi-annually, ensuring price stability [2][11]. - The expected net profit per ton for electrolytes in Q1 2026 is projected to rise to 6,000-7,000 yuan, reflecting a significant recovery in profitability [2][4]. Production and Capacity Expansion - The company plans to produce 1 million tons of electrolytes in 2026, with a target of 220,000 to 240,000 tons for lithium iron phosphate [2][21]. - A new 35,000-ton capacity for LiPF6 is being developed to prevent supply shortages in the second half of the year, as demand typically increases by 25%-30% [5]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in a 1 million-ton iron source project to reduce the cost of lithium iron phosphate by 1,200-1,500 yuan per ton, leveraging by-products from its production processes [6]. - Solid-state battery initiatives are accelerating, with a pilot production line for lithium sulfide expected to be operational in H2 2026, targeting a gross margin of 20%-30% [2][10]. Challenges and Risks - The company anticipates that the LFP segment will continue to incur losses in the near term, although the losses are expected to narrow significantly in Q1 2026 [12]. - The company is cautious about the impact of fluctuating lithium carbonate prices on profitability, employing hedging strategies to mitigate risks [15]. Future Outlook - The company expects to see a turnaround in the LFP business by Q2 or H2 2026, driven by improved sales and pricing [12]. - The solid-state battery market's development will be closely monitored, with revenue contributions expected to align with industry progress [10][20]. Additional Insights - The company is exploring both recycling and mining for lithium resources to optimize costs, although specific details remain undisclosed [9]. - The company is also preparing for potential market entry into sodium battery electrolytes, which are expected to have similar pricing to traditional lithium-based electrolytes [22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic positioning, financial performance, and future outlook within the lithium battery industry.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3] - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The second - phase start - up load of Yuanxing Energy has increased, the output of soda ash plants is at a high level, the overall supply is expected to be abundant; the daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a high level in the same period, which is bearish [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,250 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2605 is 1,276 yuan/ton, the basis is - 26 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price, which is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [3] - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is bullish [3] - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [3] 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Likely factors**: Less cold repair of downstream float glass, stable output; the conflict between the United States and Iran boosts the bullish sentiment of the market [5] - **Negative factors**: The start - up load of the second - phase production line of Yuanxing Energy has increased, and there is no expectation of new maintenance, and the output is expected to remain at a high level; the production of photovoltaic glass, the downstream of heavy soda ash, has been reduced, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [5] 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | Heavy soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | Main basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous value | 1,242 | 1,220 | - 22 | | Current value | 1,276 | 1,250 | - 26 | | Increase/decrease | 2.74% | 2.46% | 18.18% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [12] 5. Soda Ash Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in North China is - 154.65 yuan/ton, and the profit of the co - production process in East China is - 70.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15] 6. Soda Ash Start - up Rate, Production Capacity and Output - The weekly start - up rate of the soda ash industry is 85.04% [18] - The weekly output of soda ash is 807,000 tons, of which the output of heavy soda ash is 432,300 tons, and the output is at a historical high [20] 7. Soda Ash Industry Production Capacity Changes - **2023**: The total new production capacity is 6.4 million tons, including Anhui Hongsifang (200,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (400,000 tons in the first - phase 1, 2, 3 lines and 1 million tons), Henan Lingshan (2 million tons in the fifth - phase), and Chongqing Xiangyu (200,000 tons) [21] - **2024**: The total new production capacity is 1.8 million tons, including Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (1 million tons in the first - phase 4 line), Henan Jinshan (500,000 tons in the sixth - phase), and Henan Zhongda (300,000 tons) [21] - **2025**: The planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, and the actual production is 1 million tons, including Jiangsu Lianyungang Debang (600,000 tons), Lianyungang Alkali (1.1 million tons), Hubei Shuanghuan Phase II (400,000 tons), Hubei Xindu (600,000 tons), Inner Mongolia Yuanxing Energy (2.8 million tons in the second - phase), and Henan Jinshan (2 million tons in the seventh - phase) [21] 8. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Soda Ash Sales Rate**: The weekly sales rate of soda ash is 61.12% [24] - **Downstream Demand of Soda Ash**: - **Float Glass**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 148,500 tons, and the start - up rate is 70.81% [27] - **Photovoltaic Glass**: Not provided in detail, but there is a situation of production reduction and weakening demand for soda ash [5] 9. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in the plant is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 2.79% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [32] 10. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Start - up Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3067 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [33]

1、市场回顾与展望： 国内纯碱市场走势淡稳，个别企业价格窄幅提涨。隆众资讯数据监测，上周 国内纯碱产量80.70万吨，环比增加1.60万吨，涨幅2.03%。纯碱综合产能利用率86.77%，环比上涨 1.73%，检修恢复及开工提升，整体供应上涨。国内纯碱厂家总库存194.72万吨，周增加5.28万吨，涨 幅2.79%。企业产销维持，个别企业累库，执行订单，纯碱企业待发订单窄幅增加，维持12+天。 展望： 当前纯碱企业利润不佳，本周国内纯碱开工预期高位较稳，纯碱下游需求预计近期较稳。 下游浮法玻璃预期本周产量小幅下降,光伏玻璃本周有大线存点火计划，市场供给短期预计将重回高位， 市场释放订单节奏较缓，光伏玻璃库存压力依旧。纯碱供需宽松背景下，预期近期纯碱企业库存仍维 持高位运行，新产能投放施压，成本端燃料价格偏强，后期重点关注纯碱开工变化。预计纯碱价格近期 震荡运行。 关注因素： 1.纯碱开工变化；2.新产能投放进度；3.纯碱企业库存变化。 | 纯碱 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周环比变化（%） | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, international crude oil prices have soared again. The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most crucial oil chokepoint, has almost come to a standstill due to the US - Iran conflict, leading to a continuous rise in international oil prices. WTI and Brent crude oil have recorded their largest weekly increases since 1983 and 1991 respectively [1][11]. - A 10% increase in oil prices may push up the PPI by about 0.4 percentage points. Crude oil, as a basic production material, is widely used in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industrial chains. The relevant industries account for about 12.4% of the PPI [1][12]. - The actual impact of oil prices on China's inflation depends on how the conflict develops. Bloomberg Economics has made three scenario analyses: cease - fire (medium - high probability), continuous war (medium - high probability), and regime change in Iran (low probability). Different scenarios will have different impacts on China's PPI [2][18]. - The bond market may remain volatile. It is recommended to moderately extend the duration when there are adjustments. The bond supply shock trading may come to an end. The probability of interest rate decline is higher from the Two Sessions to the Politburo meeting in April. However, after the 10 - year Treasury bond rate breaks below 1.80%, the market is cautious, waiting for the increase in interest rate cut expectations [2][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the bond market successively traded risk appetite and expectations of the Two Sessions. Yields remained volatile overall, with short - end performance stronger than long - end. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds both rose by 1bp [10]. - International oil prices soared due to the Middle East geopolitical conflicts. As of Friday's close, WTI crude oil futures rose by more than 36% this week, and Brent crude oil futures rose by about 29% [11]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds, and funding rates declined. From March 2nd to March 6th, the central bank's open - market net withdrawal was 136.34 billion yuan. R007 and DR007 decreased by 2bp and 9bp respectively compared with February 28th [22][24]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields remained volatile this week, with short - end performance being strong. Except for 10Y and 30Y, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds declined. Except for the 50Y - 30Y spread, other key - term Treasury bond spreads widened [31]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - As of March 6th, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds rebounded to 31%, the 50Y - 30Y Treasury bond spread narrowed by 2bp compared with February 28th, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread widened by 0.3bp to 50bp. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.03 years to 2.56 years. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [35][39]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds changed from net financing to net repayment, the net financing of local government bonds increased, and the net repayment of policy - financial bonds decreased. Next week, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds will increase, while the issuance scale of local government bonds will decrease. This week, inter - bank certificates of deposit changed from net repayment to net financing, and the average issuance rate continued to decline [49][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In February, the manufacturing PMI declined seasonally, and the export sector was under pressure. Since March, travel has been stronger than the Spring Festival seasonality, and industrial production has improved marginally. Real - estate transactions, consumption, export, and industrial production indicators have shown different trends [57]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The US non - farm payrolls data in February was disappointing. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasury bond rates both rose by 18bp. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread remained flat at 59bp. European bond markets declined, the Chinese bond market rose, and the South Korean bond market declined. Emerging - market bond markets also declined [65][66]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index adjusted this week. The Nanhua Crude Oil Index rose significantly by 31%, the US dollar index rose, while the Nanhua Live Pig Index and Shanghai Copper declined. The performance of major asset classes this week was: crude oil > US dollar > rebar > Chinese bonds > Shanghai gold > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > CSI 300 > convertible bonds > Shanghai copper > live pigs > CSI 1000 [70]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - The calendar from March 9th to March 13th, 2026, includes information on liquidity投放 and maturity, government bond supply, fundamental data, and important domestic and international events [76].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a mixed investment rating across various sectors, with some industries showing potential for growth while others are experiencing declines [11][12][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the FEPMI index for February 2026 shows a continued differentiation in the industry, influenced by the Spring Festival effect, with new industries still demonstrating advantages [11][12]. - Raw material sectors are experiencing internal differentiation, with petroleum dropping to a low of 41.9, chemicals at 40.8, and non-metallic minerals rebounding to 51.3, while non-ferrous metals remain stable [11][12]. - Equipment sectors have seen a monthly decline, with computers at 48.9, automobiles at 43.9, and electrical machinery at 43.3 [11][12]. - Consumer sectors are also showing a decline, with clothing dropping significantly to 38.4, pharmaceuticals at 49.9, and food processing slightly down to 50.2 [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Situation of Chinese Manufacturing - In February 2026, among 12 key industries, 3 had indices above 50%, with non-metallic minerals at the highest of 51.3% [11]. - The lowest was in the chemical fiber manufacturing sector at 34.3% [11]. 2. Hotspot Industries PMI and Sub-indexes - **Petroleum Processing and Coking Industry**: February PMI at 41.9, significantly below the four-year average of 46.08, indicating a seasonal low with production and new orders declining [15][20]. - **Non-ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Industry**: February PMI at 52.2, showing a seasonal low but better than the four-year average, with production and new orders also declining [24][29]. - **Non-metallic Mineral Products Industry**: February PMI at 51.3, indicating a seasonal high with new orders recovering [33][39]. - **Chemical Raw Materials and Products Manufacturing**: February PMI at 40.8, indicating a seasonal low with significant declines in production and new orders [43][49]. - **Black Metal Smelting and Rolling Industry**: February PMI at 44.3, indicating a seasonal low with slight declines in production and new orders [54][58]. - **Chemical Fiber and Rubber Plastic Products Industry**: February PMI at 34.3, indicating a significant seasonal low with major declines in production and orders [65][69]. - **Automobile Manufacturing Industry**: February PMI at 43.9, indicating a seasonal low with production and orders declining [74][79]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state of various industries, highlighting both opportunities and challenges within the manufacturing sector.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market shows a situation of weak reality and strong expectations. Although the current PVC price is under pressure due to factors such as increased inventory and weak downstream demand, with expected policies and maintenance after the Spring Festival and a significant rise in crude oil prices, it is expected that PVC will fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of downstream production after the festival [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region continues to drop by 50 yuan/ton. The PVC start - up rate increases by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average downstream start - up rate of PVC rebounds by 17.11 percentage points to 17.11%, but it is 6.34 percentage points lower than the same period last lunar year. Export orders increase slightly after the festival, but are expected to be low in March due to completed pre - sales and the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1st. India's anti - subsidy tax investigation also decreases export expectations. Social inventory increases significantly during the Spring Festival and continues to rise, remaining at a high level. The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real estate market requires time. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the start - up expectations of some production enterprises decline, but the current production decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. In February, which is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand, the spot trading is light after the Spring Festival. The increase in PVC start - up rate, continuous increase in social inventory, and continuous decline in calcium carbide prices put pressure on the PVC price [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract opens higher and then runs with reduced positions and fluctuations. The lowest price is 4894 yuan/ton, the highest price is 5053 yuan/ton, and it finally closes at 4995 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.31%. The position volume decreases by 83,763 lots to 1,065,884 lots [2] 3.3 Basis - On March 4th, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rises to 4800 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract is 4995 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 195 yuan/ton, strengthening by 14 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a relatively low level [3] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking 3.4.1 Supply - The PVC start - up rate increases by 1.99 percentage points to 82.08%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua had a trial production in December 2025 [4] 3.4.2 Demand - The real estate industry is still in the adjustment stage. The year - on - year decline in investment, new construction, and completion areas is still large, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion further decline. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment is 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area is 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%, among which the residential sales area decreases by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume is 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, among which the residential sales volume decreases by 13.0%. The new construction area of houses is 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%, among which the new construction area of residential houses is 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses is 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of houses is 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%, among which the completion area of residential houses is 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of February 22nd, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreases by 92.37% week - on - week. The commercial housing transaction is sluggish during the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to whether the favorable real estate policies after the festival can boost commercial housing sales [5] 3.4.3 Inventory - As of the week of February 27th, the PVC social inventory increases by 0.71% week - on - week to 1.353 million tons, 58.02% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increases significantly during the Spring Festival and continues to rise this week, remaining at a high level [6]