连建明 2026年头一个月，A股走势让许多股民感到犹如"坐过山车"，好在主要指数月K线都收阳，为全年开了 好头。不过，周五的大幅震荡也在提示市场风险悄悄降临，展望未来，慢牛行情有望持续，但风险也需 提高警惕。 再细看个股方面，上涨股票数量远多于下跌股票。1月份上涨股票3800只，下跌股票1300多只。聚焦热 点板块，既有去年的"老明星"，又有今年出现的"新贵"，通过1月份净申购的ETF就能看出，净申购前 几名分别是有色金属ETF、化工ETF、电网设备ETF、黄金ETF等，这些板块几乎是本月涨幅最大的板 块，涨幅最大的是有色和黄金板块，黄金板块涨幅高达40%，这当然与本月黄金价格暴涨有关，但风险 也在显现，1月最后一个交易日由于黄金出现震荡，A股中的黄金类企业股票大幅下跌，很多股票跌 停。至于去年最热门的科技股尤其是半导体、人工智能板块热度还在延续，人工智能从去年炒硬件转为 AI应用，导致软件和传媒板块大涨，中证传媒指数1月份涨幅为22%。卫星和电网设备去年12月份就开 始成为热点，今年1月份炒作延续，但下半月出现明显回调。化工板块则是1月份异军突起的板块，表现 突出。 1月份还有一个显著特点，就是大盘股、小盘 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 [T日ab期le_Industry] : shzqdatemark 2026年01月30日 | [T分ab析le师_Author] | : | 张河生 | | --- | --- | --- | | Tel: | | 021-53686158 | | E-mail: | | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | SAC | 编号: | S0870523100004 | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] 固 定 收 益 周 报 《投资者风险偏好高企》 ——2026 年 01 月 13 日 《地缘局势升级，大宗分化》 从 ETF 表现看，黄金、光伏、建材、卫星、石化、航空航天等表 现领先，周涨幅在 5%以上。 国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险偏好高企 ——宏观固收周报（20260119-20260125） [Tabl主e_要Su观mm点ary] 美股三大指数下跌，恒生指数同样下跌。 过去一周（20260119-20260125），纳斯达克、标普 500 指数与 道琼斯工业平均指数分别变化-0.06%、-0.35%与-0.53%，同时期恒生 指数变化-0.36%。 ...

York Space Systems shares rose 11.8% in their New York Stock Exchange debut on Thursday, valuing the satellite company at $4.75 billion. ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the best practice model for technical analysis using large models is a combination of "rule-based prompt engineering and large model reasoning," delegating complex tasks to code [1] - The current technical analysis engine can automatically identify multi-level trends, with specific recommendations for the Shanghai Composite Index and semiconductor equipment [1][4] Group 1: Pain Points in Large Model Technical Analysis - Precision issues arise as large models can only capture general trends (upward, downward, sideways) but struggle with exact High/Low values [2][10] - Logical consistency is a challenge, particularly in complex spatial structures, where large models may fail to maintain cross-cycle logical coherence without prompt adjustments [2][12] - Context handling is limited by window constraints and a lack of sensitivity to numerical relationships, making it difficult for large models to perform accurate calculations [2][13] Group 2: Prompt Engineering as a Key Component - The report outlines a four-step process for effective prompt engineering, including building foundational information, formatting pen data, segment data, and central data [3][15] - It highlights the importance of initializing trading instances and creating a natural language mapping dictionary for various analysis components [3][15] Group 3: Technical Analysis Engine Capabilities - The technical analysis engine is designed to be faster, with real-time data sources and minimal analysis time (15-20 seconds) [3][23] - It supports multi-level automatic identification of trends and can analyze various asset classes, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, futures, and forex [3][24] Group 4: Analysis Cases and Results - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a "three-buy" signal, indicating a potential buying opportunity, while semiconductor equipment is in a "three-buy observation zone" [4][34] - The report provides specific analysis for the Shanghai Composite Index and satellite ETFs, indicating short-term volatility but potential for upward movement [4][38][41]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Beijing's initiative to promote the development and utilization of commercial satellite remote sensing data resources from 2026 to 2030, encouraging mergers and acquisitions among capable enterprises to enhance the industry chain [1] - The initiative supports the planning and construction of commercial satellite constellations with differentiated advantages and clear commercial value and application prospects [1] - The successful connection of the humanoid robot "Embodied Tian Gong" to a new type of internet satellite by Galaxy Aerospace marks the first global trial of humanoid robots directly connecting to low Earth orbit satellites for high-throughput data transmission [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that China's actions are a strategic response aimed at seizing orbital and frequency resources, indicating significant challenges in satellite manufacturing, launch platform construction, and ground infrastructure development [4] - The deployment of such a large-scale network may face hurdles, including the need for approval from the International Telecommunication Union, leading some requests to potentially serve as future resource reservations rather than complete execution plans [4] - If China partially implements its plans, it could fundamentally alter the space power dynamics, indicating a desire not only to compete in the space race but also to reshape space regulations in the coming decades [4]

Core Viewpoint - The increasing geopolitical tensions and the actions of the Trump administration have led countries to prioritize satellite sovereignty, investing in domestic satellite infrastructure to ensure stable communication, data, and intelligence transmission [1][8]. Defense Strategy - Countries are establishing their own satellite assets as part of broader efforts to increase defense spending, highlighting the strategic importance of satellites in national security, especially in light of recent conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war [9]. - The experience of Ukraine with the Starlink satellite network has prompted Europe to develop the IRIS2 system, which aims to provide secure communication for governments and address internet connectivity gaps [10]. National Interests - Industry insiders predict that spending on space-related projects will increase in the coming years, creating new sales opportunities for companies in this sector [3][11]. - The U.S. Department of Defense is becoming a key customer for satellite operators due to its substantial budget, with companies like Blue Origin and Planet Labs securing contracts related to national security [11]. - Planet Labs has recently announced agreements with the Swedish Armed Forces and other nations to provide satellite and data support, reflecting the growing demand for satellite services driven by geopolitical factors [5][11][12]. - Governments are increasingly supporting domestic companies as a means to achieve security and strategic goals, exemplified by Canada's $1.6 billion loan to Telesat for its Lightspeed satellite communication network [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing importance of satellite sovereignty among nations due to geopolitical tensions and the need for secure communication and data transmission [3][4]. Group 1: National Investment in Satellite Infrastructure - Countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia are investing in their own satellite systems or paying for exclusive access to private satellites to ensure stable communication and data transmission [3]. - Germany plans to invest €35 billion (approximately $41 billion) in space projects, including satellites, by 2030 [3]. - Oman has signed a multi-million dollar agreement with Astranis for internet satellite collaboration, aiming to gain sovereign control over its digital infrastructure [3]. Group 2: Defense Strategies and National Security - The establishment of national satellite assets is part of broader efforts to increase defense spending, highlighting the strategic importance of satellites in national security [4]. - The experience of Ukraine during the conflict, relying on SpaceX's Starlink for communication, has raised concerns about dependency on private companies for satellite services [4][5]. - The European Union is planning the IRIS2 system, which will consist of 290 satellites to provide secure communication for governments and address internet connectivity issues [5]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities in the Space Sector - Increased government spending on space-related projects is expected to create new sales opportunities for companies in the sector [6]. - The U.S. Department of Defense is becoming a key customer for satellite operators due to its substantial budget [7]. - Planet Labs has secured national security-related agreements with various governments, indicating strong demand for satellite services driven by geopolitical factors [8]. Group 4: Support for Domestic Companies - Governments are increasingly supporting local companies as a means to achieve security and strategic objectives [9]. - The Canadian government has provided approximately $1.6 billion CAD (around $1.2 billion USD) in loans to Telesat for its planned Lightspeed satellite communication network [9]. - Eutelsat, a satellite company based near Paris, received funding support from the French and British governments, reflecting a trend of national investment in domestic satellite capabilities [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight", expecting a gain of more than 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6 - 12 months [19] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the beginning of 2026, the A - share market style has changed from unilateral upward movement to high - frequency rotation. It is better to hold the core main line firmly than to chase the market in high - frequency rotation. The AI industry chain remains the market consensus, and the current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end" [3] - The acceleration of industry rotation is a benign spread of funds from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [3] - The net inflow of industry ETFs has increased, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears". It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration strategy [3] Summary by Directory Market Focus Always on the Main Line, AI Industry Chain Remains the Consensus - From the perspective of trading volume proportion, industries such as electronics, computers, and national defense and military industry have always been at the core of the market. Even with short - term disturbances, the electronics sector's trading volume proportion remains at a high level of 17% - 20%, and that of national defense and military industry has gradually recovered, indicating strong capital stickiness [3][8] - The current market cooling is a "slope adjustment" rather than a "trend end". The high concentration of the chip structure proves that the AI industry chain is an investment main line with in - depth consensus, and high activity provides strong resilience and upward elasticity [3][8] Liquidity Spillover, the Advantage of "Technology + Prosperity" Portfolio Highlights - As the market enters the adjustment period, liquidity begins to spread from high - consensus varieties to prosperous industries with catch - up logic. When the technology main line adjusts, funds flow to industries such as chemicals, non - ferrous metals, and banks [10] - This shows that it is not the ebb of the main line but the natural spread of liquidity from "point" to "surface". The market is seeking a pricing balance between technology and prosperous industries [11] - Since the beginning of the year, some sectors have shown high weekly and year - to - date excess returns. The strategy of holding the AI bottom position and combining bull - market varieties has a higher winning rate than blind rotation [12] ETF Fund Flows: Driven by the Resilience of Prosperity and Technology - Although the broad - based ETFs are still experiencing net outflows (the weekly outflow of CSI 300ETF is 724.2 billion yuan), the industry ETFs are in a state of net buying, with a cumulative net inflow of 78.82 billion yuan [13] - There has been a significant pulsed inflow of funds into the non - ferrous sector without siphoning other sectors. The technology sector also has a large net inflow, especially software and satellite sub - industries, showing a configuration pattern of "cycles as shields and technology as spears" [14] It's Better to Be Part of the Wind Than to Chase It - The main line of this bull market is clear, with technology being the best offensive variety. It is recommended to adopt a "dumbbell - shaped" configuration and hold firmly [3][17] - One end of the "dumbbell" is the technology main line, including storage, equipment, advanced packaging, AI applications, commercial aerospace, and robots. The other end is the prosperous cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals and chemicals, and also pay attention to stable sectors like home appliances and transportation [3][17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook, focusing on long-term opportunities in cyclical industries [2][24]. Core Viewpoints - The macro timing model for January 2026 scored 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of an increase in the Wande All A Index over the following month, with an average expected gain of 3.18% [24][31]. - The report emphasizes the strong upward momentum in cyclical industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, driven by global macro events [24][25]. - Short-term investments in thematic sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and space photovoltaics have shown significant rebounds, although caution is advised due to potential volatility from rapid price increases [25][27]. Fund Size Statistics - In the period from January 19 to January 23, 2026, the top three increasing equity ETF types were: thematic index ETFs (59.135 billion), industry index ETFs (7.975 billion), and cross-border industry index ETFs (5.346 billion) [9][10]. - The top three increasing equity ETF products were: power grid equipment ETF (7.326 billion), chemical ETF (5.717 billion), and sci-tech chip ETF (3.953 billion) [10][14]. - The top three increasing equity ETF tracking indices were: segmented chemical index (9.829 billion), power grid equipment thematic index (7.326 billion), and SSH gold stock index (5.251 billion) [18][20]. Market Outlook - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market in January 2026, with a focus on the micro-cap index and the CSI 500 leading the market [24][25]. - Long-term recommendations include a focus on non-ferrous metals and chemicals, with silver prices surpassing the psychological level of 100, indicating potential for further increases [24][25]. - The report anticipates a market characterized by oscillating upward trends, recommending a growth-oriented ETF allocation [67][68].

Fund Size Changes - The top three increasing equity ETF types from January 19 to January 23, 2026, are: Theme Index ETF (¥591.35 billion), Industry Index ETF (¥79.75 billion), and Cross-Border Industry Index ETF (¥53.46 billion) [9] - The top three decreasing equity ETF types during the same period are: Scale Index ETF (-¥3348.87 billion), Cross-Border Strategy Index ETF (-¥7.12 billion), and Style Index ETF (-¥0.19 billion) [9] Market Outlook - The macro timing model's score for January 2026 is 0, indicating a 76.92% probability of the Wande All A Index rising in the following month, with an average increase of 3.18% [24] - The report maintains a bullish outlook, emphasizing long-term opportunities in cyclical industries, particularly in non-ferrous metals and chemicals [24] - The price of London silver surpassed the psychological level of 100 on January 23, 2026, indicating potential for further increases [24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on growth-oriented ETF allocations, particularly in sectors like commercial aerospace, AI applications, and space photovoltaics, which have shown short-term rebounds [27] - The recommended ETFs include those focused on chemical, electric grid equipment, and semiconductor sectors, with specific stocks highlighted for each ETF [69] Risk Considerations - The model's predictions are based on historical data, which may not hold in the future, and there are risks associated with macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations [70]