Report Overview - Report Name: Baocheng Futures' Morning Report on Beans and Oils (September 11, 2025) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The beans and oils market is facing a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Domestic bean futures prices are relatively resistant to the decline compared to foreign markets. The prices of various products such as soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are in a state of shock, with short - term intraday views being mostly shock - biased upwards [5][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Performance**: Intraday view is shock - biased upwards, medium - term view is shock, and reference view is shock - biased upwards [5] - **Core Logic**: The beans market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Domestic soybean meal futures are relatively resistant to decline. Under the background of high refinery operating rates, the inventory pressure of soybean meal continues to accumulate, and the negative basis has not improved. The differentiated trend of domestic and foreign bean futures will continue before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations [5] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Performance**: Intraday view is shock - biased upwards, medium - term view is shock, and reference view is shock - biased upwards [8] - **Core Logic**: There is still great uncertainty in the supply and cost fluctuations of long - term raw material soybeans, and the weak reality pressure of the industrial chain is difficult to resolve. Soybean oil futures prices are affected by US soybean oil, adjacent oil varieties, and Sino - US trade prospects, resulting in a wide - range shock [8] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Performance**: Intraday view is shock - biased upwards, medium - term view is shock, and reference view is shock - biased upwards [9] - **Core Logic**: The inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil has been released as expected, and its price pressure has an impact on domestic palm oil futures. After the short - term market pressure is released, the driving force for further decline is not strong. Palm oil futures prices fluctuate around energy attributes and industrial changes, and the short - term price may stop falling and stabilize [9]

Market Overview - The current market sentiment remains heated, with the A-share upward cycle not yet over, but transitioning from a unilateral rise to a "slow bull" phase, indicating potential short-term volatility [1][4] - Growth style shows greater elasticity supported by industrial trends and earnings growth prospects, while cyclical style remains more stable; a balanced approach is recommended for investors [1][4] Equity Market Analysis - Last week, the market style favored large-cap stocks, with value style significantly outperforming; the volatility of large and small-cap styles increased rapidly, while value and growth style volatility decreased [6][7] - The excess return dispersion of industry indices increased, indicating a rise in industry rotation speed, while the proportion of rising constituent stocks decreased, suggesting a weakening of the strong index trend [6] - The trading concentration increased, with the top 100 stocks' trading volume share rising, while the top five industries' trading volume share remained stable compared to the previous period [6] Market Activity - Market volatility and turnover rate continued to rise last week, indicating increased market activity [7] Commodity Market Insights - In the commodity market, the energy and chemical sector's trend strength increased, while other sectors remained stable; the basis differential momentum for black and energy sectors rose [21] - Volatility increased in the black and precious metals sectors, with liquidity performance showing divergence across sectors [21] Options Market Overview - Implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 remains high but has shown marginal easing; the skew of put options for the 50ETF has risen rapidly, while the CSI 1000 remains unchanged [25] Convertible Bond Market Analysis - The convertible bond market experienced a decline followed by recovery, with significant volatility; the premium rate for bonds convertible at 100 yuan stabilized at a mid-level [27] - The proportion of low premium convertible bonds has notably decreased, with these bonds performing relatively well; market trading volume has contracted but remains within a healthy range [27]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 煤炭期价反弹，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-05 品种晨会纪要 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，供需结构偏弱导致价格重 心面临下移。本周四夜盘国内煤炭期货价格小幅上涨，导致甲醇期货 2601 合约呈现震荡偏强的走势， 期价小幅收涨 1.18 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][5][7] 2. Core View of the Report - Both Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract and synthetic rubber futures 2511 contract are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Thursday, September 4, 2025 [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Overall Situation of Different Futures in Short - term, Medium - term and Intraday - **Shanghai Rubber (RU) 2601**: Short - term and medium - term are both in a volatile state, and intraday is volatile and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1] - **Synthetic Rubber (BR) 2511**: Short - term and medium - term are both in a volatile state, and intraday is volatile and weak, with a reference view of weak operation [1] 3.2. Price and Market Movement of Shanghai Rubber (RU) - On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a weak and volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.91% to 15,790 yuan/ton. Benefiting from the easing of Sino - US economic and trade relations, the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the improvement of macro factors, the actual supply output in Southeast Asian producing areas decreased slightly year - on - year, and the demand was supported by the better - than - expected performance of the domestic auto market and tire exports. However, due to the collective weakness of domestic energy and chemical commodities on Wednesday night, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Thursday [5] 3.3. Price and Market Movement of Synthetic Rubber (BR) - On Wednesday night, the 2511 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained a weak and volatile trend, with the futures price slightly down 1.43% to 11,720 yuan/ton. The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is currently dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Although the industrial factors are weak, the macro sentiment has improved with the rising expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Due to the collective weakness of domestic energy and chemical commodities on Wednesday night, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend on Thursday [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the soybean meal (M) and its 2601 contract, the intraday, short - term, and medium - term views are all "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is also "oscillating weakly". The core logic is that short - term market sentiment is cautious, funds leave the market, and the futures price is difficult to have a trend fluctuation. The expected supply gap may be falsified, and the trading logic switches to the weaker reality [6][8]. - For palm oil (P) and its 2601 contract, the intraday, short - term, and medium - term views are all "oscillating weakly", and the overall view is also "oscillating weakly". After the sharp fall of palm oil after a sharp rise, although the inventory pressure is not large due to limited production growth and strong exports in Southeast Asia, recent protests in Indonesia and the spill - over effect of international oil prices still affect the futures price, and short - term funds do not stay, so the price will mainly fluctuate widely [7][9]. - For soybean oil 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating weakly", and the view reference is also "oscillating weakly". The core logic involves factors such as US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [8]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - **Logic Factors**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery start - up rhythm, and stocking demand [8]. Soybean Oil - **Logic Factors**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [8]. Palm Oil - **Logic Factors**: Biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term sentiment in the soybean market is cautious. With the market sentiment about to turn, there is an expectation of repairing the price difference between the domestic and foreign soybean markets. The short - term price of soybean meal futures has turned to a volatile state. The price of palm oil futures has stopped falling and rebounded as international oil prices have stabilized, and the positive industrial chain expectations also support the price. [6][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic is that the market is waiting for the progress of Sino - US negotiations, which will determine the market's risk pricing for the long - term. The short - term sentiment in the soybean market is cautious, and there is an expectation of repairing the price difference between the domestic and foreign soybean markets. Also, factors such as import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand affect it. [6][8] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic is that the spill - over effect of recent international oil price fluctuations on the oil market continues to appear. As international oil prices have stabilized, the price of palm oil futures, the most energy - related oil variety, has stopped falling and rebounded, and the positive industrial chain expectations also support it. Also, factors such as biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand affect it. [7][8][9] Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Opinions**: The short - term and mid - term views are both "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly". The core logic includes factors such as US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [8]

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests that methanol 2601 will run weakly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation weakly" respectively. The overall price of methanol is expected to face downward pressure due to the weak supply - demand structure [1][5]. Summary by Related Contents Price and Trend - The price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly decreased by 0.89% to 2349 yuan/ton in the night session last Friday. It is predicted that the contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Monday [5]. Driving Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol prices are now dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season, causing the price center to face downward pressure. Additionally, the slight decline in domestic coal futures prices and the suppression of weak industrial factors also contribute to the weak trend of methanol [5].

Report Overall Summary - The report focuses on the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of the Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) futures, providing views and core logic for each [1][5][7]. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available in the provided content. Report's Core View - In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to show a weakening trend, with a "weak operation" reference view [1][5][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Trend Outlook**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and weakening, with an overall view of weak operation [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The market is driven by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian and domestic rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, leading to high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has a falling inventory, reduced operating load, blocked exports, and a slowdown in growth. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals dominate. The 2601 contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed 0.03% lower at 15,825 yuan/ton on the night session of last Friday and is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Monday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Trend Outlook**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and weakening, with an overall view of weak operation [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: The market is based on supply - demand fundamentals. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, but supply pressure has slightly increased. The domestic tire industry has a falling inventory, reduced operating load, blocked exports, and a slowdown in growth. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals dominate. The 2510 contract of synthetic rubber futures closed 0.55% lower at 11,790 yuan/ton on the night session of last Friday and is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend on Monday [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][7]. Summary by Relevant Contents Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.50% to 15,800 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. The inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export growth has slowed down. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals prevail [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Thursday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.59% to 11,820 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, and the supply pressure has increased slightly. The inventory of the domestic tire industry has declined, the operating load has decreased, and export growth has slowed down. After the digestion of macro - positive expectations, the bearish fundamentals prevail [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - All three varieties (soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil) are expected to be "weakly volatile" in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, according to the reference views [5][6][8]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [5]. - **Core Logic**: The change in Sino - US trade relations affects US soybean export prospects. The pattern of weak reality and strong expectation in the domestic market remains unchanged. Short - term soybean futures prices are highly repetitive at high levels. As market sentiment weakens again, both domestic and foreign soybean futures prices decline, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures prices. Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand also play roles [5][7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: The soybean oil market focuses on raw material soybean cost support, US biodiesel policy expectations, and the resolution of domestic inventory pressure. Affected by the weakening of raw material soybean prices, the cost support for soybean oil futures prices weakens. US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory are also influencing factors [6][7][8]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Movement Outlook**: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: International oil price fluctuations have a continuous spill - over effect on the palm oil market. As the most energy - related oil variety, palm oil futures prices are significantly affected. Although the positive trend of the palm oil industry chain remains unchanged, short - term capital outflows intensify price fluctuations. Factors such as biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand also impact the price [7][8].