Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The domestic situation of weak reality and strong expectation in the soybean sector remains unchanged, with high volatility in short - term soybean futures prices. The overall performance of soybean meal and palm oil futures is expected to be weakly volatile both in the short - term and medium - term [5][6]. - Fluctuations in international oil prices have a continuous spill - over effect on the oil market, especially on palm oil futures, which experience intensified high - level volatility. However, the positive trend in the palm oil industry chain remains, providing support for palm oil prices [8]. 3) Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: Sino - US trade relations are crucial for US soybean export prospects. The import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and备货 demand also affect soybean meal prices. Market sentiment turning weak leads to synchronized declines in domestic and foreign soybean futures prices, increasing the short - term volatility of soybean meal futures [5][7]. Palm Oil (P) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Fluctuations in international oil prices have a significant impact on palm oil futures. The positive trend in the palm oil industry chain, such as declining Indonesian inventories, strong Malaysian palm oil exports, and increased Indian imports, supports palm oil prices. However, short - term price fluctuations are intensified [8]. Soybean Oil (2601) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventories, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventories [7]. Palm (2601) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: All are weakly volatile [7]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by its bio - diesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventories, and substitution demand [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - home transactions in the real estate market showed a month - on - month recovery but were still lower than the seasonal level year - on - year, while the second - hand housing transactions achieved year - on - year growth, indicating a divergence between new and second - hand housing. - The automotive consumption recovered, while the movie box office declined. - The industrial operation in the production field was stable, and the infrastructure construction maintained resilience. - In terms of investment, the consumption and price of rebar were divergent, and the cement price rebounded from a low level. - Most commodity futures declined, with significant drops in coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass. - The central government highly concerned about the continuously pressured real estate market. It was expected that the real estate policy toolbox might be further opened, but the probability of a large - scale stimulus was low. Instead, the market would achieve a new balance through policy support [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Demand - New - home transactions increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. As of the week ending August 22, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities was 1.745 million square meters, up 10% month - on - month and down 26% year - on - year, significantly lower than the seasonal level. Second - hand housing transactions in key cities mostly increased month - on - month and year - on - year. - Automotive consumption increased week - on - week, while movie - going consumption increased year - on - year. The national migration scale index decreased week - on - week, and subway ridership declined marginally [2][12]. 3.2 Production - In the mid - and upstream sectors, the blast furnace operating rate in Tangshan and the rebar operating rate remained flat week - on - week. The PTA operating rate decreased by 0.7 pct to 75.1%, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions increased by 0.9 pct to 91.4%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 2.2 pct to 30.7%. - In the downstream sector, the operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires for automobiles increased, and the semi - steel tire operating rate was still at a seasonal high [49]. 3.3 Investment - The apparent consumption of rebar recovered, but the rebar price decreased week - on - week. As of the week ending August 22, the apparent consumption of rebar increased by 2.6% to 1.948 million tons, and the rebar price decreased by 1.8% to 3,346.2 yuan/ton. - The cement price increased by 1.6% to 105.1 points week - on - week. As of the week ending August 15 (latest data), the cement shipping rate remained basically flat at 40.1%, and the cement inventory ratio decreased by 1.2 pct to 61.6% [64]. 3.4 Trade - In terms of exports, the container throughput at ports decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the CCFI composite index decreased by 1.5% week - on - week. The freight rates of European, West - American, and East - American routes decreased week - on - week. The BDI index also decreased by 4.1% week - on - week. - In terms of imports, the CICFI composite index decreased by 1.0% week - on - week [73]. 3.5 Price - The agricultural product price index increased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pork price decreased by 0.4% week - on - week, while the egg price increased by 1.1% week - on - week, the vegetable price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the fruit price decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. - The Nanhua industrial products price index decreased by 1.4% week - on - week. The spot price of Brent crude oil remained flat week - on - week, the COMEX gold futures price decreased by 0.2% week - on - week, and the LME copper spot price decreased by 0.5% week - on - week. Most commodity futures declined, with asphalt, caustic soda, and industrial silicon having the highest increases, and coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass having the largest decreases [6][83]. 3.6 Interest - Bearing Bond Tracking - Next week (August 25 - 29), the planned issuance of interest - bearing bonds is 382.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 133.4 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of treasury bonds is 0 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 237.1 billion yuan; the planned issuance of local bonds is 351.6 billion yuan, with a net financing of 243.7 billion yuan; the planned issuance of policy - bank financial bonds is 31 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 140 billion yuan. - As of August 22, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year was 96.7%, the cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds was 73.2%, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds was 69.9% [7][106]. 3.7 Policy Weekly Observation - The government emphasized taking effective measures to consolidate the stabilization of the real estate market, such as promoting urban renewal, renovating urban villages and dilapidated houses, and releasing improvement - oriented housing demand. - Other policies included regulating the construction and operation of PPP projects, exempting personal income tax on childcare subsidies, conducting MLF operations, standardizing the photovoltaic industry competition order, etc. [117]

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures' morning report on beans and oils for August 22, 2025, covering the price trends and core logics of varieties like soybean meal and palm oil [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The report provides intraday, medium - term and reference views on soybean meal and palm oil futures, and analyzes the driving factors and core logics of their price trends [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: Recently, the price difference between domestic and foreign beans has been repaired. The US soybean futures price is oscillating strongly, while the domestic soybean futures price is in high - level oscillation. The market is in a game between near - term pressure and long - term supply gap. The soybean meal futures price has a high - level volatile market affected by the Sino - US negotiation process [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoint**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7] - **Core Logic**: The export growth of Malaysian palm oil exceeds market expectations, indicating strong demand. Coupled with the decline in Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June, the positive expectation of the international palm oil industry chain supports the palm oil futures price. The domestic palm oil futures price follows the international oil market, and is oscillating strongly in the short term with strong support below [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term trends of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures are all expected to be oscillating on the stronger side, while the medium - term trends are mostly oscillating [5][8][9]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Viewpoint**: Short - term and intraday views are oscillating on the stronger side, and the medium - term view is oscillating. The reference view is oscillating on the stronger side [5]. - **Core Logic**: The U.S. soybean futures prices are oscillating on the stronger side, the South American Brazilian soybean premium is still relatively high, and the sowing weather of new crops in South America and the harvesting weather of U.S. soybeans are attracting market attention. In China, the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength continues. The rising procurement cost of imported soybeans in the long - term and the supply gap support the long - term soybean meal futures prices [5]. For Soybean Oil (Y) - **Viewpoint**: Short - term view is strong, medium - term view is oscillating, and intraday view is oscillating on the stronger side. The reference view is oscillating on the stronger side [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Currently, the operating rate of domestic oil mills is at a high level, and the domestic oil and meal market has entered a stage of increasing supply. The market focus is that due to the weakening monthly crushing profit, the procurement enthusiasm of oil mills is not high. The market continues to show a strong oscillating trend supported by cost and supply gap expectations. In the short term, the domestic soybean oil futures prices are boosted by both the external U.S. soybean oil market and the cost of domestic soybean raw materials [8]. For Palm Oil (P) - **Viewpoint**: Short - term view is strong, medium - term view is oscillating, and intraday view is oscillating on the stronger side. The reference view is oscillating on the stronger side [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: Although the previously leading palm oil futures prices have fallen from their highs, the positive expectations of the industrial chain still support the palm oil futures prices. Affected by sentiment fluctuations, the prices mainly fluctuate at high levels with strong support below. In the short term, the high - level oscillation of palm oil futures prices does not change the overall strong pattern [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weakening trend. In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it will be in a state of shock, with an intraday weakening shock. The core reason is that the coal price is weakening, and the methanol supply - demand structure is weak [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock and weakening, and the reference view is weakening operation. The core logic is that the coal price is weakening, causing the methanol to shock and weaken [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is shock and weakening, and the medium - term view is shock. The reference view is weakening operation. As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of domestic and foreign methanol is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. Although the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract had an oversold rebound on Tuesday night, with the price rising slightly by 0.50% to 2398 yuan/ton, it lacks the power to continue rising. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract will maintain a shock and weakening trend on Wednesday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares and the ChiNext index led global gains with an increase of 8.6%[27] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 3.0% and the Nikkei 225 increased by 3.7%[27] - Emerging markets, particularly A-shares, outperformed developed markets, with the overall A-share market up by 3.0% last week[31] Group 2: Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index fell by 0.4%, while the euro, pound, and yen appreciated by 0.5%, 0.8%, and 0.4% respectively[5] - Since the beginning of the year, the US dollar index has decreased by 9.8%, with the euro, pound, and yen rising by 13%, 8.3%, and 6.4% respectively[5] - Commodity prices saw a general increase, with the South China and CRB commodity indices both rising by 0.5%[71] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The yield curve for Chinese bonds exhibited a "bear steepening" pattern, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.7 basis points to 1.75%[45] - The 10-year to 2-year yield spread for US bonds also expanded, indicating a "bear steepening" trend, with the 10-year yield increasing by 6 basis points to 4.33%[50] Group 4: Risk Premium Analysis - The risk premium for the CSI 300 relative to 10-year government bonds decreased to 5.7%, down by 0.14% from the previous value[19] - The risk premium for the S&P 500 relative to 10-year US Treasuries fell to -0.8%, a decrease of 0.10%[19]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation, and an intraday view of oscillation on the weaker side [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, the methanol market is dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure at home and abroad remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season, leading to a downward shift in the price center [5]. 3) Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is oscillation on the weaker side, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. Price and Market Performance - Last Friday night, the price of the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract slightly decreased by 0.86% to 2409 yuan/ton, and it is expected to maintain an oscillation - on - the - weaker - side trend on Monday [5]. Core Logic - The methanol market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. High supply pressure at home and abroad and off - season downstream demand lead to a weak supply - demand structure and a downward - moving price center [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core View - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil are mostly "oscillating strongly". The core logics involve factors such as raw material cost support, policy influence, and supply - demand relationships [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [5]. - **Core Logic**: Although the high premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly declined, the pattern is hard to change before the substantial improvement of US soybean exports, providing cost support for domestic soybean meal. Due to the disturbance of Sino - US trade relations and the transfer of funds, the futures price of soybean meal has high - level fluctuations, with short - term oscillation and strong tendency and the repair of internal - external price difference [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating strongly [7]. - **Core Logic**: The July supply - demand data of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board is neutral to positive. Indonesia and Malaysia have raised export tariffs, supporting price resilience. The Indonesian biodiesel policy provides long - term support for prices. Domestic palm oil futures prices follow international trends and are prone to rise in the short term [7]. Soybean Oil (2601) - **View**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillating, intraday and reference views are oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: It is affected by US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]. Palm (2601) - **View**: Short - term is strong, medium - term is oscillating, intraday and reference views are oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: It is related to biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6]. Soybean Meal (2601) - **View**: Short - term and medium - term are oscillating, intraday and reference views are oscillating strongly [6]. - **Core Logic**: It is affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - For both沪胶 and合成胶, the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillate", and the intraday view is "oscillate weakly", with a reference view of "weak operation" [1][5][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Content 沪胶 (RU) - The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure as the previous macro - driving force has weakened. Southeast Asian rubber - producing areas are in the peak tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. However, the August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. After the rubber price strengthened to absorb the positive factors, the night session of the domestic沪胶 futures 2601 contract on Thursday maintained an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.92% to 15,650 yuan/ton. It is expected that the沪胶 futures 2601 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Friday [5] 合成胶 (BR) - The market has returned to a situation dominated by a weak supply - demand structure as the previous macro - driving force has weakened. The domestic synthetic rubber plant load is stable, and the supply pressure remains. The August domestic heavy - truck sales data and new - car production and sales data are better than market expectations, showing a significant year - on - year increase. After the rubber price strengthened to absorb the positive factors, the night session of the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract on Thursday maintained an oscillating and weakly downward trend, with the futures price slightly down 1.10% to 11,650 yuan/ton. It is expected that the synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract may maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend on Friday [7]