Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced overall weak fluctuations with significant differentiation among varieties on September 19 [1] - The industrial silicon market saw a notable increase, leading the commodity market with a rise of over 3.6% due to tightening supply [1][3] - The shipping market, particularly the European shipping index, faced a sharp decline of over 6%, marking it as the worst performer in the commodity market [1][5] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Analysis - Industrial silicon prices rose by 3.62% on September 19, supported by a decrease in supply, with a daily increase of over 26,000 contracts [3] - The national industrial silicon production is estimated at approximately 84,000 tons this week, down from 85,100 tons the previous week, indicating a continued decline [3] - Concerns about production cuts in regions like Sichuan and Yunnan have increased, with some companies planning to reduce output after the peak water season [3] Group 3: Protein Meal Market - The protein meal market saw a collective rebound, with the main contract for rapeseed meal rising by 2.15% and soybean meal increasing by 0.43% [4] - The domestic soybean meal market shows strong bottom support, while supply bottlenecks in rapeseed are limiting the downside potential for meal prices [4] Group 4: Shipping Market Dynamics - The European shipping index faced significant downward pressure, with the main contract dropping 6% due to increased pressure on airlines to secure cargo amid a shipping off-season [5] - The current shipping market sentiment is pessimistic, influenced by a lack of sufficient supply reduction compared to the previous year [5] - Despite the current downturn, there are expectations that the decline in shipping rates may slow down after the National Day holiday, with hopes for a rebound in cargo volume towards the end of the year [5] Group 5: Polyester Chain Weakness - The polyester chain products, including PTA and PX, collectively weakened, with both experiencing declines of over 2% [6] - The demand for downstream products like bottle flakes is transitioning into an off-season, contributing to the overall weakness in the polyester market [6] - The continued low international oil prices and a nearly 2% drop in domestic crude oil prices are exerting additional pressure on the PX and PTA markets [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货甲醇早报-2025-09-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 偏弱供需主导，甲醇震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：目前国内外甲醇供应压力依然偏大，下游需求处在淡季阶段，港口累库显著增加，供需 结构偏弱导致价格重心面临下移。随着近日美联储 9 月降息预期兑现以后，本周四夜盘国内甲醇期 货 2601 合约维持震荡偏 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being oscillatory and weak [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **View**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak; Overall: weakly running [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The dot - plot shows that there will be two more rate cuts in Q4 2025 and only one in 2026, slower than the market's current pricing. With the fulfillment of previous bullish expectations and the rubber market in a state of increasing supply, the RU 2601 contract showed an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday night, with the price slightly down 0.99% to 15475 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **View**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak; Overall: weakly running [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. The dot - plot shows that there will be two more rate cuts in Q4 2025 and only one in 2026, slower than the market's current pricing. After the previous bullish expectations were fulfilled, the BR 2511 contract maintained an oscillatory and weak trend on Thursday night, with the price slightly down 0.26% to 11425 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and weak trend on Friday [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall view for the agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal and palm oil, is "oscillating weakly" in the short - term and "oscillating" in the medium - term [5][7]. - For soybean meal, the market is affected by the prospects of Sino - US trade relations and a weak domestic fundamental situation with oil mills facing inventory pressure and a negative basis pattern [5]. - For palm oil, the short - term market is driven by sentiment. Although there are factors like rainfall in East Malaysia and stable export data, the peak production period in the producing areas restricts the upside. The long - term demand may be supported by Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [5] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: The market is sensitive to changes in Sino - US trade relations. Domestically, the trading logic has shifted to a weak fundamental situation with oil mills having inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, leading to a weak short - term futures price [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Day - to - day View**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Medium - term View**: Oscillating [7] - **Reference View**: Oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: After the supplementary increase in Malaysian palm oil prices, the increase has narrowed. Although rainfall in East Malaysia may disrupt supply in the short - term and export data is stable, the peak production period in the producing areas restricts the upside. Indonesia's biodiesel technology breakthrough may support long - term demand. The short - term market is driven by sentiment, resulting in high - level oscillations of palm oil futures prices [7].

Group 1 - The recent stock market has experienced increased volatility, while the bond market shows signs of improvement but remains oscillatory. The optimistic expectation for the resumption of government bond trading operations has contributed to this recovery, with the ten-year government bond yield dropping below 1.75% [2][5] - The market style has slightly shifted towards small-cap stocks, with growth styles prevailing. The volatility of market styles has increased, while the volatility of value and growth styles has decreased [7][8] - In the commodity market, the strength of the non-ferrous and energy chemical sectors has increased, while the trend strength of other sectors remains stable. The basis momentum across all sectors has decreased [3][20][23] Group 2 - In the options market, the implied volatility of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index remains stable, while the implied volatility of the CSI 1000 index has begun to decline. The market experienced a brief pullback in early September, particularly affecting small-cap stocks, but current sentiment has eased [28] - The convertible bond market showed a relatively flat performance, with the index primarily oscillating. The premium rate for convertible bonds remains stable, and the proportion of low premium convertible bonds has not changed significantly [30]

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 9 月 17 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：市场关注四季度到港情况，在中美贸易尚未转向之前，国内豆类市场交易逻辑转向更具确定性 的疲弱的基本面，油厂开工率高位，豆粕库存压力持续累积，豆粕负基差格局持续，短期豆类期价仍将偏 弱运行。 品种：棕榈油(P) 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2601 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively. The core reason is the rebound in coal prices [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Price Movement and Judgment Criteria - For varieties with night - trading sessions, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price to calculate the price change [2] - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is oscillatory - bearish, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillatory - bullish, and a rise greater than 1% is a rise [3] - The oscillatory - bullish/oscillatory - bearish judgment only applies to the intraday view, not for short - term and medium - term views [4] Methanol Market Analysis - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventories have increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure has led to a downward shift in the price center [5] - Driven by the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices and the improvement of macro - sentiment, the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract rebounded on the night - trading session of Monday this week, with the futures price rising slightly by 0.80% to 2,405 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend on Tuesday [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides views on the futures of two agricultural products: soymeal and palm oil. For soymeal, the short - term view is "oscillating weakly", and the medium - term view is "oscillating". For palm oil, both the short - term and medium - term views are "oscillating", with an "oscillating weakly" intraday view [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety Soymeal (M) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: The expected high yield of US soybeans is strengthening, and export demand is decreasing, putting short - term pressure on US soybean futures prices. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade, the impact on domestic soybeans is limited, and the divergence between domestic and international soybean futures prices will continue. The domestic market's trading logic has shifted to the weak industrial chain, with continuous accumulation of soymeal inventory pressure and a continuous negative basis pattern, causing short - term weakness in soymeal futures prices [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Intraday view**: Oscillating weakly - **Medium - term view**: Oscillating - **Reference view**: Oscillating weakly - **Core logic**: As the benchmark of the oil market, when other varieties fluctuate around trade topics, the palm oil industrial chain environment has weakened. Pay attention to the impact of weather - related factors. In the short term, market sentiment drives the market, and palm oil futures prices are oscillating weakly [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to run weakly with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - weak respectively [1][5]. - The supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still high, downstream demand is in the off - season, port inventory has increased significantly, and the weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2601, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory - weak, with an overall view of weak operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, leading to an oscillatory - weak trend [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemicals Sector - The current supply - demand structure of methanol is weak. With coal futures prices oscillating, the domestic methanol market was suppressed by bearish fundamentals on the night of last Friday. The methanol futures 2601 contract showed an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.17% to 2374 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory - weak trend on Monday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The short - term outlook for both soybean meal and palm oil is "weak with fluctuations", and the medium - term outlook is "fluctuating". The divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue until the Sino - US trade relationship improves. [5][6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs For Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [5][7] - **Core Logic**: The USDA report's reduction of the US soybean yield per unit did not change the expectation of a bumper US soybean harvest, having limited impact on domestic soybeans. Before the improvement of Sino - US trade relations, the divergence in price trends between domestic and foreign soybean futures will continue. In the short - term, the price of soybean meal futures will continue to fluctuate. Factors also include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. [5][7] For Palm Oil (P) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [6][7][8] - **Core Logic**: In the short - term, the energy attribute of palm oil has taken a back seat, and the trading logic has reverted to the weak industrial chain. As the barometer of the vegetable oil market, with other varieties still fluctuating around trade themes, the industrial chain environment of palm oil has weakened, and the market sentiment decline has led to an overall weakening of palm oil futures prices. Factors also involve biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand. [8][7] For Soybean Oil (2601) - **Time - period Views**: Short - term: fluctuating; Medium - term: fluctuating; Intraday: weak with fluctuations; Reference view: weak with fluctuations [7] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory. [7]