Core Viewpoint - Shanghai's economy is showing resilience with a GDP growth of 5.4% in 2025, exceeding expectations, and a clear target of 5% growth for 2026, emphasizing the importance of domestic demand and external trade stability [5][8]. Economic Performance - Shanghai's GDP reached 5.67 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.4%, outperforming expectations [5]. - The total import and export volume reached 4.51 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6%, with exports increasing by 10.8% [5]. - Actual foreign investment amounted to 16.06 billion USD, equivalent to 114.8 billion yuan [5]. Foreign Trade and Investment - Shanghai's foreign trade achieved counter-cyclical growth, attributed to targeted policies and diversified trade partnerships, with imports and exports to ASEAN and Belt and Road countries growing by 10.4% and 12.1%, respectively [6]. - The city has implemented measures to support foreign investment, including a plan to encourage reinvestment by foreign enterprises and the establishment of foreign-funded projects in key sectors like new energy vehicles and biomedicine [6][11]. Future Economic Goals - The government aims for a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, focusing on enhancing domestic demand and integrating consumption and investment strategies [9]. - Plans include boosting consumption through various initiatives, such as enhancing service consumption and promoting tourism, while also stabilizing foreign trade and investment [10][11]. Five-Year Plan and Development Goals - The "15th Five-Year Plan" outlines ambitious goals for Shanghai, including doubling per capita GDP from 2020 levels by 2035 and achieving significant advancements in high-quality development and urban governance [13][14]. - The plan emphasizes the development of five centers: international economic, trade, shipping, financial, and technological innovation centers, with a focus on enhancing the service sector and fostering world-class enterprises [15][16]. Collaborative Development - The government stresses the importance of synergistic development among the five centers to enhance overall effectiveness and regional coordination [17].

Economic Growth and Trade - Shanghai's GDP reached 5.67 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4%, exceeding expectations [2] - The total import and export volume reached 4.51 trillion yuan, with exports increasing by 10.8% [2] - Actual foreign investment amounted to 16.06 billion USD, equivalent to 114.8 billion yuan [2] Foreign Trade and Investment - Shanghai's foreign trade achieved growth due to targeted policies and trade diversification [3] - In 2025, imports and exports to ASEAN and Belt and Road countries are expected to grow by 10.4% and 12.1%, respectively [3] - Shanghai remains a favored destination for foreign investment, with significant projects in sectors like new energy vehicles and biomedicine [3] Economic Goals and Strategies - The GDP growth target for this year is set at around 5% [4] - Emphasis on strengthening domestic demand and enhancing the role of consumption and investment [4] - Plans to boost consumption and stabilize foreign trade and investment, while promoting high-quality development of state-owned and private enterprises [5] Five-Year Plan and Future Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for Shanghai's per capita GDP to double by 2035 compared to 2020 [6] - Key tasks include accelerating the construction of the "Five Centers" and promoting high-level reform and opening up [7] - The "Five Centers" encompass international economic, trade, shipping, financial, and innovation centers, with a focus on enhancing service quality and fostering world-class enterprises [7]

Core Insights - The year 2025 marked significant advancements in Qinghai's commerce sector, achieving historical breakthroughs and enhancing public welfare [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The total retail sales of social consumer goods reached 104.9 billion yuan, crossing the 100 billion yuan threshold for the first time, demonstrating the growing impact of consumption on economic growth [2] - The total import and export value reached 7.07 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.6%, ranking fourth nationally; exports amounted to 6.19 billion yuan, up 41.9%, placing second in the country [2] - E-commerce flourished, with online retail sales hitting 15.55 billion yuan, a 30.6% increase, and the purchase-to-sale ratio improved from 6:1 to 4:1, indicating a shift from "buying more" to "selling better" [2] Group 2: Policy and Initiatives - The province implemented a comprehensive "old for new" consumption policy, securing 1.69 billion yuan in funding, benefiting over 1.52 million people, and stimulating consumption by 19.7 billion yuan [3] - Over 300 promotional activities were conducted, including the "Buy in Qinghai" campaign, supported by 57.57 million yuan in provincial funds [3] - The establishment of the "Business Biweekly Roundtable" mechanism aimed to enhance service efficiency and consumer engagement [3] Group 3: Trade and Investment - The export of lithium-ion batteries surged by 3.8 times, and Qinghai ranked first in the export of frozen trout [3] - The province added nine new trade partners, establishing trade relations with 122 countries and regions [3] - The actual use of foreign capital reached 27.73 million USD, with a 2.75-fold increase in contracted foreign investment [3] Group 4: Future Plans - In 2026, the focus will be on expanding and upgrading consumption, stabilizing and optimizing foreign trade, and enhancing investment cooperation [4] - Plans include conducting over 400 promotional activities, optimizing the "old for new" policy, and introducing more than 30 new stores [4] - The province aims to increase the number of enterprises with import and export performance to over 280, fostering high-quality foreign trade development [4]

政策首先着力支持企业稳定生产经营，鼓励订单充足的企业春节期间连续生产、节后早复工复产， 对安排非苏州籍员工留在本地过节的企业给予每人500元慰问补贴，并策划"留港过大年"系列活动，送 上城市关怀；对一季度首次申报月度入库的新投产工业企业，给予最高60万元奖励；积极支持外贸企业 开拓市场，为商务人士出境处理紧急事务提供办证便利。 张家港注重对特定群体的节日关怀。将向职工赠送新春礼包，发放各类优惠券，并举办丰富文体活 动。针对新就业形态劳动者，将开展"凝新暖冬"行动，提供健康体检、暖心礼包、充电就餐优惠等实打 实的关爱。对各类困难群体、优抚对象及临时遇困人员，将开展慰问并落实多层次帮扶。此外，遍布港 城的"工会驿站"将继续为户外劳动者提供休憩便利。 为充分释放假日消费活力，张家港将围绕"'家'有好年"品牌IP，发放总值1000万元的文体旅消费 券，涵盖餐饮、观影、健身等多领域。一系列年味十足的文旅活动将登场，包括年货大集、主题旅游线 路、香山赏梅季、沙洲优黄春节嘉年华等，超过400场群众文化活动和100余场进商圈、景区的体育赛事 将举行。在住房消费方面，张家港将开展定向团购活动，并对大专及以上人才提供限时购房的优 ...

Core Insights - Shenzhen's Nanshan District is projected to become the first district in China with a GDP exceeding 1 trillion yuan by 2025, with a per capita GDP surpassing 540,000 yuan and a land GDP of 54 million yuan per square kilometer, reflecting the city's remarkable development momentum [1][3] - The city's GDP is expected to reach 38,731.80 billion yuan by 2025, maintaining the highest average annual growth rate of 5.5% among major cities in China [3][4] - Shenzhen's growth strategy focuses on "manufacturing and technological innovation," distinguishing it from other major cities that pursue diversified development [3][14] Economic Performance - Shenzhen's GDP is projected to increase by over 1 trillion yuan from 2020 to 2025, equivalent to creating a new medium-sized city within five years [9] - The city's industrial added value growth rate is 5.4%, significantly higher than other major cities, with the general equipment manufacturing sector leading with a growth rate of 13.9% [9] - Despite a 21.7% decline in fixed asset investment in 2025, key industries such as industrial technology transformation and information transmission services saw investments surge by 19.2% and 67.7%, respectively [9] Technological Advancements - Shenzhen ranks first in the nation for R&D investment intensity, with over 90% of R&D funding coming from enterprises [10] - The number of invention patents per 10,000 people in Nanshan exceeds 860, which is 22.9 times the national average [10] - The city has 1,333 specialized and innovative small giant enterprises, leading the nation in both total and incremental numbers [10] Social Development - Shenzhen maintains a balance between economic growth and quality of life, with a mild consumer price increase of 0.2% in 2025, ensuring stability in living standards [13] - The city has seen significant increases in airport passenger throughput and port container throughput, with growth rates of 8.1% and 6.0%, respectively, enhancing urban accessibility [13] - The city's approach to development emphasizes inclusivity and innovation, attracting a diverse population and fostering a strong sense of community [15][18] Future Outlook - Shenzhen's development model emphasizes quality over scale, with a focus on practical results rather than mere speed [15] - The city is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with a projected GDP of 3.8 trillion yuan and a commitment to innovation and quality living standards [18]

——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 5 期） 本报告导读： 节前赶工托底经济活跃度，内生动能待提升，新兴产业与原油有色涨价成亮点。 投资要点： | 节前效应主导 | [Table_Authors] | 李林芷(分析师) | | --- | --- | --- | | ——国内高频指标跟踪（2026 年第 5 期） | | 021-23185646 | | | | lilinzhi2@gtht.com | | 本报告导读： | 登记编号 | S0880525040087 | | 节前赶工托底经济活跃度，内生动能待提升，新兴产业与原油有色涨价成亮点。 | | 邵睿思(研究助理) | | | | 010-83939827 | | 投资要点： | | shaoruisi@gtht.com | | [Table_Summary] 上周政策围绕民生福祉提质与发展秩序优化展开，民生端聚焦养老、 | 登记编号 | S0880125070011 | | 殡葬、支付等场景强化普惠适老保障，市场端规范经营乱象、激活 | | | | 服务消费，同步优化城际铁路与能源电价机制，筑牢民生底线并激 | | 梁中华(分析师) | | 活发 ...

Monetary Policy Insights - The discussion on whether the People's Bank of China (PBOC) should create new price-based overnight tools is driven by the need to enhance guidance on overnight market rates and the recent volatility in interbank overnight rates[1] - The PBOC is currently in a phase of balancing both quantity and price in its monetary policy, with the 7-day reverse repo rate serving as the short-term policy rate[2] - The effectiveness of a price-based framework in China hinges on the establishment of an "ample reserve system," which has not yet been fully realized[2] Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 3.80% year-on-year[3] - Retail sales have shown a modest increase of 0.90% year-on-year[3] - Exports have increased by 6.60% year-on-year, indicating some resilience in external demand[3] Market Trends - The real estate market shows signs of recovery, with both new and second-hand home transactions increasing, although inventory pressure remains high with a sales-to-inventory ratio of 127.8, a historical high[40] - The logistics data indicates a year-on-year increase of 12.2% in commercial activity, reflecting a recovery in consumer demand despite a 70.1% decline in movie box office revenues[20] - The port cargo throughput has decreased by 1.70% month-on-month but increased by 6.87% year-on-year, influenced by seasonal factors[23] Fiscal and Monetary Developments - The broad deficit issuance is expected to increase, with net financing of government bonds projected at 1,420 billion and new special bonds at 3,024 billion in the upcoming week[32] - The willingness to leverage in the bond market remains high, with the balance of bonds awaiting repurchase still above historical levels[38]

第 1页 共 4页 2026 年中国经济形势展望——新质驱动， 能级跃迁-ciic 中智咨询 一、研究背景评估 二、范围与边界确认 三、核心摘要提炼 四、关键数据抓取与呈现 五、风险与机遇诊断 第 2页 共 4页 一、研究背景评估 三、核心摘要提炼 | 序 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 号 | | 第 3页 共 4页 | 序 | 核心观点 | | --- | --- | | 号 | | | 1 | 经济增长换挡提质：2026 年 GDP 预计保持 5%左右增速，从高速增长转向高质量发展，依赖 | | | 新质生产力驱动。 | | 2 | 投资结构剧变：投资从房地产驱动转向"两重"建设（国家重大战略项目与重点安全能力建设） | | | 与高技术制造，设备更新、绿色能源、新基建成为关键。 | | 3 | 消费呈现"沙漏型"分层：消费升级与降级并存，高端体验与高性价比两端走强，中端市场承 | | | 压，服务消费、县域消费、银发经济等成为新增长点。 | | 4 | 外贸韧性增强：出口从"新三样"向"新新三样"升级，市场从欧美向"一带一路"多元化拓 | | | 展，进口服务于产业升级与消费升级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade demonstrates strong resilience amid increasing global economic uncertainties, achieving a total import and export value of 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, marking a historical high and maintaining growth for nine consecutive years [1] Group 1: Trade Performance - Exports grew by 6.1%, while imports increased by 0.5%, solidifying China's position as the world's largest goods trader [1] - High-tech products have become a significant driver of export growth, with industrial robots achieving a trade surplus for the first time, establishing China as a net exporter of industrial robots [1] Group 2: Market Diversification - China's diversified trade markets have mitigated global economic risks, with traditional markets maintaining scale and emerging markets, such as ASEAN and Africa, showing high growth [2] - Private enterprises have played a crucial role in enhancing foreign trade vitality and market adaptability, contributing significantly to stable foreign trade growth [2] Group 3: Policy and Institutional Support - Continuous efforts to build a higher-level open economy and policy innovations, such as customs facilitation and tax reductions, have lowered enterprise costs and improved the foreign trade business environment [2] - New business models, including cross-border e-commerce and market procurement trade, have experienced rapid growth, enhancing the regulatory and service systems for foreign trade [2] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations - Strengthening policy environments to stabilize foreign trade expectations through expanded institutional openness and improved international business environments [3] - Restructuring market dynamics by diversifying markets and enhancing cooperation with Belt and Road Initiative countries to reduce reliance on single markets [3] - Promoting high-quality development strategies in foreign trade by upgrading export product structures towards high-tech and high-value-added goods [3] Group 5: Innovation and Support for Trade Entities - Encouraging innovation in business models and establishing national digital trade demonstration zones to foster new growth points in foreign trade [4] - Providing targeted financial and tax support to foreign trade enterprises, especially small and medium-sized ones, to enhance their operational capabilities [4] - Assisting enterprises in navigating international trade restrictions and improving compliance capabilities through various support measures [4]

Group 1: Core Initiatives - Nanjing City has implemented the "Ten Measures for Warm-hearted Benefits and Stable Employment during the 2026 Spring Festival," focusing on "consumer benefits, enterprise stability, and service upgrades" [28] - The measures include 10 specific actions aimed at enhancing consumer spending, supporting enterprises, and improving service efficiency [28][29] Group 2: Consumer Benefits - Over 400 promotional events will be organized, including an online New Year goods festival, with over 50 million yuan in various discount coupons [5][28] - A "Spring Festival Consumption Season" will feature diverse food promotions and a lottery for invoices over 100 yuan, with a maximum prize of 800 yuan [5][28] - Subsidies for consumers include up to 20,000 yuan for car scrapping and replacement, and up to 1,500 yuan for energy-efficient home appliances [9][28] Group 3: Support for Enterprises - Manufacturing enterprises with a quarterly output of over 200 million yuan will receive a reward of 0.1 yuan per kilowatt-hour for electricity used during the Spring Festival [18][29] - Support for foreign trade enterprises includes subsidies for participating in overseas trade exhibitions during the Spring Festival [21][29] - Continuous production incentives and targeted employment services will be provided to enterprises facing labor shortages [18][29] Group 4: Employment and Service Efficiency - Nanjing plans to hold over 60 "Talent Night Market" events and 400 recruitment activities, offering over 150,000 job positions [24][30] - The city will enhance transportation services during the Spring Festival, ensuring adequate supply for public transport and emergency services [27][30] - The implementation details of the measures will be accessible through platforms like "Ningqi Tong" and "My Nanjing" APP for streamlined service delivery [30]