摘要： 产业观察 [table_Header]2026.02.27 风起青萍，拥抱趋势，空天产业 2026 年十大展望 产业研究中心 [商业航天展望 Table_Summary] 低空经济展望 风险提示 1）可复用火箭研制及回收试验不及预期；2）巨型星座组网进度及商业化 落地缓慢；3）工业无人机市场竞争加剧致盈利持续承压；4）重型无人机 及 eVTOL 适航取证与场景落地不及预期。 | [Table_Authors] | 周天乐(分析师) | | | --- | --- | --- | | 0755-23976003 | | | | zhoutianle@gtht.com | 登记编号 | S0880520010003 | | 徐淋(分析师) | | | | 021-38677826 | | | | xulin4@gtht.com | 登记编号 | | | S0880523090005 | | | | 肖洁(分析师) | | | | | xiaojie3@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 登记编号 | 021-38674660 S0880513080002 | [Table_Report] ...

转自：成都日报锦观 调研中，陈书平先后来到四川成都航空产业园、成都飞机工业（集团）有限责任公司、国家高端航空装 备技术创新中心，详细了解企业重点项目推进、园区产业配套建设、创新成果落地转化等情况。他指 出，航空航天产业规模能级高、创新实力强、拳头产品多，已成为成都现代化产业体系优势赛道。相关 部门要千方百计帮助企业搭平台、供场景、拓市场，完善产学研常态化对接机制。要加强和企业沟通对 接，切实把企业提出的意见建议转化为推动工作的思路举措，合力推动航空航天产业高质量发展。 随后的座谈会上，陈书平强调，进入"十五五"，航空航天产业发展机遇持续释放。要精准选定着力重 点，系统梳理产业链上下游、左右岸情况，动态更新"一链一图"数字图谱，进行精准"画像"、建强"产 业大脑"；聚焦航空发动机、工业无人机、商业航天等关键子链，明确攻坚目标、责任分工、具体举 措；围绕关键子链上、中、下游，清单化分层梳理现有项目、企业、产品、场景、平台，提出需要增强 补足的着力重点。要"六个一批"推进项目，谋划储备一批，根据"N张清单"和着力重点，滚动充实项目 储备库；洽谈招引一批，定期梳理招引目标企业清单，开展联动精准招引；转化落地一批，推进 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Zongheng Co., Ltd. ranks fourth in the global drone company market capitalization list, reflecting investor confidence in the company's technology path, business model, and long-term growth potential in the industrial drone sector [1][2] - Zongheng Co., Ltd. is recognized as the "first industrial drone stock" after its listing on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board in 2021, and it currently holds the largest market share in the vertical take-off and landing fixed-wing drone sector in China, with operations spanning over 40 countries and regions [1][2] - The report from Droneii indicates that the total market capitalization of the listed drone companies increased by $7.36 billion compared to last year, reaching $10.926 billion, showcasing strong growth potential in the industry [1] Group 2 - Drones are a crucial component of the low-altitude economy, and Sichuan has included the low-altitude economy as one of the 15 key industrial chains for development in the province, implementing various measures to strengthen the industry [2] - Sichuan is accelerating the commercialization of high-end low-altitude equipment, including the Yilong series drones, "Double-tailed Scorpion" large medium-altitude long-endurance drones, "Cloud Shadow" drones, and AE200 eVTOL [2] - The province plans to enhance support in policy funding, application scenario expansion, research and manufacturing, airspace collaborative management, and supporting capacity construction to accelerate the development of a low-altitude economic hub in the western region [2]

Group 1 - The National Market Regulation Administration, along with ten other departments, released the "Low Altitude Economy Standard System Construction Guide (2025 Edition)", aiming to establish a basic standard system for low altitude economy by 2027 and over 300 standards by 2030 to support its safe and healthy development [1] - The low altitude economy is transitioning from concept validation to practical application, with a rapid increase in the number of related enterprises and continuous market growth [1] - Policy innovations are providing solid support for the development of the low altitude economy, including the establishment of a statistical classification for the low altitude economy and core industries [1] Group 2 - Local governments are forming significant industrial clusters in the low altitude economy, with Shanghai aiming for a core industry scale of over 80 billion yuan by 2028 and Chongqing promoting high-quality development through various policy measures [2] - The China Civil Aviation Administration predicts that the low altitude economy market will reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, positioning it as a core track for cultivating new production capacity [2] Group 3 - Listed companies are accelerating their strategic layouts in the low altitude economy, with Shen Cheng Jiao planning to raise up to 1.8 billion yuan for various projects including low altitude and autonomous driving technologies [3] - Ziguang Guowei is establishing a central research institute to enhance its research capabilities in low altitude vehicles and other applications [3] - The low altitude economy is recognized as a national strategic focus, with its development expected to create several trillion-level market growth points [3] Group 4 - The consumer-grade market for drones is projected to reach 48.9 billion yuan in 2024, growing by 20%, while the industrial-grade market is expected to reach 113.4 billion yuan in 2023, indicating greater growth potential [4] - The drone industry is advancing rapidly, although there is still room for improvement in policy standards [4] Group 5 - ZTE Corporation is advancing its low altitude perception and detection technologies through pilot projects in collaboration with industry partners [6] - XPeng Motors is working towards stable advancements in flying cars, with aspirations for significant progress between 2026 and 2028 [6] - GAC Group has received nearly 2,000 orders for its flying car, GOVY AirCab, which is undergoing airworthiness reviews and is expected to begin deliveries by the end of 2026 [6] Group 6 - CATL's ecological enterprise, Fei Aviation Technology, launched a "zero-carbon water airport + eVTOL aircraft" solution, marking a significant breakthrough in low altitude infrastructure and application scenarios [7]

Core Insights - Guangdong products are transitioning from "Made in China" to "Intelligent Manufacturing Globally," showcasing innovation and quality as key advantages [1] - The "Guangdong Products Go Global" initiative aims to promote smart appliances and new energy vehicles internationally, reflecting Guangdong's commitment to innovation-driven consumption upgrades [1][2] Group 1: Global Market Performance - Guangdong's cross-border e-commerce import and export scale has expanded 66 times over nine years, accounting for over one-third of the national total, maintaining its position as the leading province [2] - By early 2026, Guangdong has established over 5,000 overseas branches, covering major economies across six continents, creating a comprehensive international layout [2][6] - The export value of Guangdong's home appliances reached 480 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 12.3%, representing 35% of the national total [4][6] Group 2: Automotive Industry Growth - By 2025, Guangdong's new energy vehicle exports are projected to grow by approximately 120%, increasing its share of the national total to about 35% [3] - In 2025, Guangdong's automotive production is expected to exceed 5.7 million units, with new energy vehicles making up over 60% of this total [7] - BYD's ATTO 3 model is anticipated to rank among the top ten best-selling electric vehicles in Germany and France by 2025, highlighting its competitive edge in the European market [3] Group 3: Home Appliance Sector - Guangdong's home appliance industry, represented by brands like Gree, Midea, and TCL, has become a global leader through technological innovation and international expansion [4][6] - Midea has become the first domestic home appliance company to obtain the EU Product Environmental Declaration, marking a significant step towards becoming a global standard setter [9] - Gree's customized dehumidifiers have gained popularity in Southeast Asia, demonstrating the effectiveness of technology output over mere product exports [9] Group 4: Low-altitude Economy - Guangdong's low-altitude economy has surpassed 100 billion yuan, with over 15,000 related enterprises, capturing 70% of the global consumer drone market [5][8] - DJI leads the consumer drone market, while new entrants like Yihang are providing diverse low-altitude experiences [5][8] - The province has established 64 general airports and over 1,400 takeoff and landing points, enhancing its low-altitude infrastructure [8] Group 5: Cultural and Technological Impact - The internationalization of Guangdong products signifies a shift from simple product exports to technology and cultural exchange, enhancing China's global image [9] - Guangdong's products are not only recognized for their quality but also for their cultural significance, as seen in BYD's ATTO 3, which incorporates Chinese cultural elements [9][10] - The province's commitment to innovation and quality is expected to drive high-quality development and strengthen the global presence of "Chinese manufacturing" [10]

Core Viewpoint - Zongheng Co., Ltd. has seen a stock price increase of 5.15%, reaching 59.65 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 5.224 billion yuan as of January 27 [1] Company Overview - Zongheng Co., Ltd. is located in the Chengdu High-tech Zone, Sichuan Free Trade Pilot Zone, and was established on April 8, 2010, with its listing date on February 10, 2021 [1] - The company's main business involves the research, development, production, sales, and services of industrial drone-related products [1] - Revenue composition includes: 68.97% from drone systems, 13.69% from drone services, 9.13% from other sources, and 8.20% from drone accessories [1] Shareholder Information - Yongying Fund's low-carbon environmental mixed fund A (016386) entered the top ten circulating shareholders of Zongheng Co., Ltd. in the third quarter, holding 2.4255 million shares, which is 2.77% of the circulating shares [2] - The fund has achieved a year-to-date return of 4.02% and a one-year return of 11.74%, ranking 5270 out of 8861 and 6219 out of 8126 in its category, respectively [2] - The fund manager, Hu Ze, has been in position for 2 years and 238 days, with a total fund asset size of 5.142 billion yuan [2] Fund Holdings - In the fourth quarter, Yongying Fund's low-carbon environmental mixed fund A (016386) reduced its holdings by 433,900 shares, now holding 1.9916 million shares, which constitutes 10.04% of the fund's net value, making it the largest holding [3] - The fund has realized a floating profit of approximately 581.54 million yuan from its investment in Zongheng Co., Ltd. [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that China's self-developed open-source AI models have reached a global download share of 17.1%, surpassing the United States for the first time, indicating a systemic leap in the overall strength of China's AI industry [1] - According to the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the scale of China's AI industry is projected to exceed 900 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24%. By September 2025, the number of AI companies in China is expected to exceed 5,300, accounting for 15% of the global total [1] - The transition of China's AI technology is moving from "open-source leadership" to "application overseas," expanding from single tool applications to a comprehensive technology ecosystem covering algorithms, platforms, and industry solutions [1] Group 2 - The transformation is closely related to the deep implementation of China's "AI+" initiative, driven by both policy guidance and market demand, enabling Chinese AI companies to integrate technology with application scenarios effectively [2] - Chinese AI products are expanding from internet applications to core sectors of the real economy, such as urban governance, smart energy, transportation logistics, and high-end manufacturing, aligning closely with global digitalization needs [2] - Chinese AI companies are not just exporting products or services but are empowering local industries through technology, enhancing smart upgrades in various sectors [2] Group 3 - The global expansion of Chinese AI technology addresses production and living challenges, with applications like industrial drones equipped with AI visual systems significantly improving response times for forest fire prevention and power line inspections [3] - In regions with dispersed populations or complex terrains, lightweight AI pest identification applications are providing small farmers with diagnostic and prevention advice, enhancing quality of life and social resilience [3] - China's advantages in AI extend beyond technological innovation and application promotion to active participation in global governance and international cooperation, emphasizing principles such as human-centered approaches and collaborative governance [3] Group 4 - Looking ahead, Chinese AI companies are expected to integrate more openly, innovatively, and reliably into the global innovation network, contributing Chinese wisdom in rule-making, risk governance, and capacity building [4] - The commitment to building a peaceful, secure, open, cooperative, and orderly cyberspace community is emphasized as part of China's strategic layout for AI development [4]

Core Insights - China's self-developed open-source AI models have reached a global download share of 17.1%, surpassing the United States for the first time, indicating a systemic leap in the overall strength of China's AI industry [1] - The scale of China's AI industry is projected to exceed 900 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 24%, and the number of AI companies in China is expected to surpass 5,300 by September 2025, accounting for 15% of the global total [1] Industry Development - The transformation in China's AI sector is closely linked to the implementation of the "AI+" initiative, driven by both policy guidance and market demand, leading to a deep integration of technology and application scenarios [2] - Chinese AI products are expanding from internet applications to core sectors of the real economy, such as urban governance, smart energy, logistics, and high-end manufacturing, aligning with global digitalization needs [2] Global Application and Impact - Chinese AI technology is not only expanding its applications but also effectively addressing production and living challenges in various regions, such as using industrial drones for forest fire prevention and power line inspections in Southern Europe and Latin America [3] - The lightweight AI pest identification applications are providing diagnostic and prevention advice to small farmers in Africa and South Asia, enhancing quality of life and social resilience [3] International Cooperation - China is actively participating in global governance and international cooperation in the AI field, emphasizing principles such as human-centered approaches, fairness, and collaborative governance [3] - The adoption of a resolution at the 78th United Nations General Assembly, proposed by China to strengthen international cooperation in AI capacity building, reflects global recognition of China's approach [3] Future Outlook - Looking ahead, Chinese AI companies are expected to integrate more openly, innovatively, and reliably into the global innovation network, contributing to rule-making, risk governance, and capacity building [4]

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system, marking a strategic shift from single-point technological breakthroughs to systematic industrial upgrades [6][19]. - The new energy industry is transitioning from a focus on installed capacity to building a "source-grid-load-storage" collaborative system, emphasizing dynamic balance between production and consumption [7]. - The aerospace sector is developing a dual-driven model of national engineering and commercial space, with large aircraft industrialization and commercial space driving the scale and capability of the industry chain [8]. - Future industries such as 6G and quantum technology place China in the global leading tier of R&D, aiming to seize the high ground in technology standards and industrial ecosystems through forward-looking layouts [9]. - The transformation of traditional industries emphasizes not only greening and intelligentization but also explicitly promotes "service-oriented manufacturing," guiding the manufacturing sector to extend services throughout the product lifecycle [10]. Group 1: Modern Industrial System - The construction of a modern industrial system is the primary task of the "14th Five-Year Plan," highlighting its core position as a foundation for new era development [19][20]. - The modern industrial system consists of three parts: upgrading traditional industries, developing emerging pillar industries, and strategically laying out future industries [20]. Group 2: Emerging Pillar Industries - The cultivation of emerging pillar industries is positioned as the strategic core of the modern industrial system, providing a strong new growth engine for high-quality development [23]. - Key emerging pillar industries include new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, which are expected to drive explosive growth in multiple trillion-level markets [23]. Group 3: New Energy - The new energy sector has evolved into a comprehensive ecosystem encompassing "production, storage, transmission, and application," with a strategic significance in ensuring national energy security and achieving carbon neutrality [24]. - As of the end of 2024, China's cumulative installed capacity of new energy reached 1.41 billion kilowatts, maintaining a global leading position [25]. - The annual new installed capacity during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to remain around 30 million kilowatts [25]. Group 4: New Materials - The new materials industry in China has rapidly grown, with total output value exceeding 8 trillion yuan in 2024, but still faces structural challenges with about 30% of key high-end materials relying on imports [34]. - Significant breakthroughs are being made in various fields, including third-generation semiconductor materials and high-end alloys for aerospace applications [39]. Group 5: Aerospace - The aerospace sector has formed a dual-driven model of national major projects and commercial markets, with the C919 large aircraft and commercial space rapidly developing [42]. - The market size of China's aerospace manufacturing industry is expected to reach 601.7 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.05% [42]. Group 6: Low-altitude Economy - The low-altitude economy, driven by various manned and unmanned aerial vehicles, is expected to reach a scale of 505.95 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 33.8% [50]. - The market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 29.6% from 2021 to 2026 [50]. Group 7: Future Industries - Future industries represent cutting-edge technological and industrial development directions, including quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and brain-computer interfaces [61]. - The quantum technology sector is expected to grow significantly, with the industry scale projected to reach approximately 80 billion USD by 2024 and potentially near 1 trillion USD by 2035 [64].

Core Insights - The Chinese capital market is undergoing a systematic shift in its underlying logic over the next five years, with a high historical fulfillment rate of the core objectives outlined in the "Five-Year Plan" [2] - The focus of policy and industrial resource allocation will be concentrated on 16 key sectors, including semiconductors and new materials, while traditional infrastructure and real estate are losing importance [7][10] Group 1: Industry Trends - There is a significant potential for domestic substitution in high-end manufacturing, with a 90% domestic replacement space identified in various sectors [6] - The current domestic replacement rates for critical components are low, indicating substantial opportunities for growth in areas such as photolithography and high-end machine tools [6][12] - The policy support is no longer evenly distributed but is highly concentrated on specific sectors, marking a shift in resource allocation [7] Group 2: Investment Implications - The competition in sectors where domestic rates are nearing saturation is becoming intense, while areas with lower domestic rates present longer-term opportunities for investment [12] - Sustainable returns in hard technology sectors will favor participants who can maintain long-term investment strategies rather than seeking short-term profits [15] - The historical context of policy changes reflects a transfer of wealth in China, with the semiconductor sector now positioned as a new economic engine [10]