涨价、减配，几乎是中国手机在2026年可以预见的未来。 以下文章来源于智能涌现 ，作者邱晓芬 智能涌现 . 直击AI新时代下涌现的产业革命。36氪旗下账号。 文 ｜ 邱晓芬 编辑 ｜ 苏建勋 来源｜ 智能涌现（ID：AIEmergence） 封面来源 ｜ IC photo 谁能想到，黄仁勋在韩国的一顿饭，全球几亿智能手机消费者的钱包，要在2026年"失血"。 10月末，英伟达创始人黄仁勋约了三星电子会长李在镕，在首尔一家小店里吃炸鸡、喝啤酒。这家店名为"Kkanbu Chicken"，在韩语里有"亲密朋友"的意 思。 饭桌上，黄仁勋特意送上英伟达DGX的礼盒，并亲笔写下"致我们的合作和世界的未来"。韩国媒体披露， 黄仁勋此行意在巩固与三星的关系，锁定三星的 HBM存储产能。 李在镕和黄仁勋谈笑间，中国手机大厂的供应链要难受了。11月初，大家收到消息：2025年一路狂涨的三星LPDDR5，因为没产能，干脆对外暂停报价。 HBM和LPDDR是内存存储单元的两种表现形式——LPDDR是把存储单元盖成"底层连排别墅"，主要用在手机、笔记本和平板等消费电子产品；而HBM则 像是把存储单元垒成摩天大楼，是存储工艺最复杂、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment philosophy of Warren Buffett, emphasizing that his investment in Google is not merely about supporting AI but rather about recognizing the potential for Google to remain resilient amidst rapid AI developments or potential market bubbles [4][11]. Group 1: Value Investment Understanding - Value investment is categorized into three levels: basic metrics like PB, PE, and PS; intermediate factors such as industry position, ROE, competitive advantages, growth potential, and free cash flow; and the ultimate understanding of future societal, economic, and industry changes [7][9][10]. - Many investors misunderstand value investment by equating it solely with purchasing leading companies in various sectors, such as consumer stocks or household appliances, without grasping the broader implications of Buffett's investment strategies [10][11]. Group 2: Misconceptions in Value Investment - Common misconceptions among value investors include linear thinking, excessive research, lack of understanding of major trends, and inefficiencies in research [12][13]. - Investors often mistakenly believe their understanding of industries and companies surpasses that of institutions and the market, leading to poor investment decisions [14][15]. Group 3: Investment Strategy Insights - The article highlights the importance of recognizing cyclical stocks versus growth stocks, stating that cycles are eternal while growth is temporary [14]. - It points out that many investors make errors by focusing too much on minute differences in valuation, especially when entering positions at high prices, which can lead to unfavorable odds [15][16].

01 市场回顾 | | | 全球大类资产本周表现(2025/11/10-2025/11/14) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 全球指数 | 涨跌幅 | A股领涨行业 | 涨跌幅 | 外汇 | 涨跌幅 | | 法国CAC40 | 2.77% | 综合 | 6.99% | 美元兑日元 | 0.72% | | 巴西IBOVESPA指数 | 2.39% | 纺织服饰 | 4.41% | 澳元兑美元 | 0.63% | | 印度SENSEX30 | 1.62% | 商贸零售 | 4.06% | 欧元兑美元 | 0.48% | | 韩国综合指数 | 1.46% | 美容护理 | 3.75% | 欧元兑人民币 | 0.00% | | 多伦多300 | 1.41% | 医药生物 | 3.29% | 美元兄港元 | -0.06% | | 德国DAX | 1.30% | A股领跌行业 | 涨跌幅 | 美元兑英镑 | -0.11% | | 恒生指数 | 1.26% | 通信 | -4.77% | 美元兑加元 | -0.14% | | 富时新加坡海峡指数 | 1.20 ...

Core Insights - The meeting between Nvidia's founder Jensen Huang and Samsung's chairman Lee Jae-Yong in Seoul is expected to impact the smartphone industry significantly, leading to potential shortages and price increases in 2026 due to Nvidia's acquisition of HBM storage capacity [1][2][3] - The rising costs of storage components, particularly LPDDR and HBM, are anticipated to force smartphone manufacturers to either raise prices or reduce specifications in their products [2][4][10] Group 1: Nvidia and Samsung Collaboration - Jensen Huang's visit to Samsung aimed to strengthen ties and secure HBM storage capacity, which is crucial for AI applications [1] - Nvidia's aggressive procurement strategy, including prepayments to suppliers, has disrupted the traditional supply chain dynamics, favoring Nvidia over smartphone manufacturers [7][10] Group 2: Impact on Smartphone Manufacturers - The smartphone industry is facing a "super cycle" of storage shortages, with predictions that the supply-demand gap may persist until at least 2027 [10][11] - Major smartphone brands are experiencing significant pressure on storage availability, leading to reduced orders and potential product line adjustments [11][13] Group 3: Price Increases and Market Adjustments - The cost of LPDDR storage has surged dramatically, with prices increasing from $6 to $25, reflecting a threefold rise [4] - Predictions indicate that flagship smartphones will see price increases, while mid-range and low-end products may face reduced specifications or even discontinuation [14]

袁帅认为，从宏观层面看，国货在"双11"的表现，折射出消费端与供给端的一系列深层变化：一方面， 消费侧更重视品质与体验，愿意为"好国货"反复买单；另一方面，供给侧通过技术投入和供应链改造， 不断增强产品竞争力。"这一轮'国货当道'，既来自消费端心智的变化，也来自生产端能力的抬升。" 中国数实融合50人论坛智库专家洪勇表示，国货品牌的成功不仅体现在终端销售，更深刻带动了上游产 业链的繁荣。品牌订单的增长直接转化为对本土零部件、材料和制造服务的需求，推动了环节的升级。 这种"以消费促制造"的正向循环，有效扩大了内需市场，增强了国内经济的内生动力。同时，本土供应 链的紧密协作提升了产业链的整体韧性，减少了对外部的依赖，为构建安全、高效、自主可控的国内大 循环体系提供了坚实支撑，也为中国品牌走向全球奠定了基础。 业内普遍认为，国货品牌已经实现了从"平替"到与进口品牌"同台竞技"的重要转变。这背后，是企业多 年在品质、技术、品牌上的持续投入，也是供给侧结构优化与需求侧理性回归、文化自信提升共同作用 的结果。袁帅认为，未来国货要走得更远，仍需在产品力、创新力和全球化能力上不断加码，靠一次大 促的爆发是不够的，关键是把日常 ...

本报记者谢若琳见习记者何成浩 2025年"双11"购物季正式收官，其间多平台榜单上国产品牌占据"C位"。例如，天猫相关数据显示，美 妆销售额榜单中国品牌珀莱雅位列第一，服饰销售榜单中国品牌占得前三中的两个席位。京东相关数据 显示，手机品牌累计销量排名中，中国品牌占得前三中的两个席位。抖音相关数据显示，趋势男装及时 尚女装品牌榜中，第一皆为国产品牌。在业内人士看来，今年的"国货热"并非偶然，而是过去几年消费 结构变化在"双11"场景下的一次集中体现。 埃森哲《美好生活新主张—中国消费者洞察》报告显示，近五年来，中国消费者的品牌偏好正在悄然改 变，进口品牌不再是"优先项"，六成左右的消费者现在会选择国货。如家用电器品类，在2021年，55% 的消费者会优先选择国际品牌，而2025年，69%的消费者会优先选择国产品牌。美妆护肤品类，从2021 年的约12%优先选择国产品牌提升至2025年的43%。 袁帅认为，从宏观层面看，国货在"双11"的表现，折射出消费端与供给端的一系列深层变化：一方面， 消费侧更重视品质与体验，愿意为"好国货"反复买单；另一方面，供给侧通过技术投入和供应链改造， 不断增强产品竞争力。"这一轮' ...

Group 1: Price Trends in Consumer Goods - Recent years have seen significant price increases in essential consumer goods such as cooking oil, sanitary paper, and shower gel, with monthly living expenses rising noticeably for residents [2] - Starting from November, five major consumer goods are experiencing a concentrated price drop, which is expected to save consumers money [2] Group 2: Real Estate Market - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a continuous decline, with the average price in September at 13,381 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 7.38% [4] - The decline in second-hand housing prices is attributed to three main factors: a cumulative price drop exceeding 30%, stagnant or declining household income, and a more rational approach to home buying post-pandemic [4] Group 3: Automotive Market - A price war has erupted in the domestic automotive market, with numerous brands participating in price reductions, including a 1.5 million yuan drop for a domestic electric vehicle and 2.5-3 million yuan for popular joint venture brands [6] - The reasons for the automotive price drop include year-end sales targets, increased competition from new energy vehicles, and the entry of tech companies into the automotive sector [6] Group 4: Mobile Phone Market - The mobile phone market has also seen significant price reductions, with average discounts ranging from 10% to 20% across various brands [8] - Factors contributing to the price drop include rapid product turnover, lack of significant technological advantages among brands, and a decrease in consumer purchasing due to stagnant income [8] Group 5: Pork Prices - Pork prices have entered a downward trend, with prices dropping below 20 yuan per jin, currently around 17-18 yuan per jin [11] - The decline is driven by an oversupply in the market due to increased pig farming and a shift in consumer preference towards healthier meat options [11] Group 6: Rental Market - The rental market is experiencing a downward trend, with rental prices in cities like Shanghai decreasing from 6,000 yuan to 5,500 yuan per month [14] - The decline in rental prices is influenced by reduced demand due to job scarcity in cities and declining local incomes [14]

麻了。 尽管根据各大电商平台的双十一战报，今年国人的消费实力依旧不减，天猫双11总交易额5403亿元、京东11.11累计下单金额超3491亿元，都高于去年， 但大众的消费心态却发生了明显变化。 社交平台上，许多年轻人发帖称彻底放弃了钻研复杂的购物攻略，放弃计算直播间与旗舰店下单的微小差距。 因为受够了被平台套路牵着鼻子走，像没头苍蝇一般困在铺天盖地的营销算法牢笼里。 今年双十一刚刚结束，相比于往年热闹喧嚣的贵了、便宜了、多了、少了、值不值得等等评判与讨论，更多普通人的感受只能用两个大字来形容： 越来越多人意识到，花钱是为了讨好自己、消费是为了更快乐，如果购物的心境不是从从容容游刃有余，而是匆匆忙忙、连滚带爬，既焦虑于错过优惠、 事后又后悔冲动下单，那这样的购物体验不如不要。 因此，一些年轻人最近在尝试一种全新的购物理念——当自己的"手机皇帝"。 01 第一批厌倦套路的年轻人 开始抢回消费主导权 手机皇帝，指的是此前网络上爆火的一种app分类方式。 把app们根据功能分类，对照着古代官制大致对应、重新命名，比如把办公软件们命名为上书房，购物软件们命名为采办处。 专门用来看电视剧、综艺的影音软件们则是教坊司。 而 ...

Core Viewpoint - Multiple smartphone manufacturers have paused their procurement of storage chips due to soaring prices, with some facing DRAM inventory levels below three weeks, while the demand from data centers driven by AI models is pushing prices higher [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Smartphone manufacturers like Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo are experiencing low inventory levels, with DRAM stocks generally under two months and some below three weeks [1]. - The price increase for storage chips is driven by a surge in demand from data centers, which are willing to pay over 30% more than smartphone manufacturers for the same products [1][2]. - Major storage manufacturers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, have reduced their NAND flash supply in the second half of the year to drive prices up [1][2]. Group 2: Production Adjustments - Samsung has lowered its NAND wafer production target for the year from 5.07 million to 4.72 million, while Kioxia and SK Hynix have also reduced their production targets [2]. - The shift towards quad-level cell (QLC) technology due to AI demand is contributing to the decline in NAND flash production [2]. - Panic buying among North American tech companies has led to some suppliers having their NAND supply for next year fully booked [2]. Group 3: Impact on Smartphone Industry - The rising prices of storage chips are causing uncertainty among smartphone manufacturers regarding whether to reduce specifications or increase prices [3]. - Companies like SMIC have reported cautious procurement behavior in the mobile and networking sectors due to supply shortages and price hikes [3]. - The current inventory levels of major manufacturers are nearing depletion, indicating limited room for price reductions [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Even if manufacturers choose to increase production, it will take one to two years to meet current market demand [4]. - The prevailing strategy among major manufacturers is to reduce production to maximize profits, suggesting that storage chip prices may continue to rise in the first half of next year [5].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in upstream storage chip prices has led several smartphone manufacturers, including Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo, to pause their procurement for the current quarter, as they face significant price increases of nearly 50% from suppliers like Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for storage chips has surged due to the AI model wave, with data centers willing to pay over 30% more than smartphone manufacturers for the same products [1]. - Major storage manufacturers, including Samsung and SK Hynix, have reduced their NAND flash supply in the second half of the year to drive up prices [1][2]. - Samsung has lowered its NAND wafer production target for the year from 5.07 million to 4.72 million, a decrease of about 7% [2]. Group 2: Pricing Trends - The price of DDR5 DRAM surged by 25% within a week after Samsung paused its contract pricing for October [1]. - SanDisk raised its NAND flash contract prices by 50% in November, prompting other major manufacturers to follow suit [4]. - The cost of storage chips typically accounts for 10%-30% of a smartphone's total cost, with high-end models seeing costs exceed 20% [5]. Group 3: Supply Chain Implications - Smartphone manufacturers are currently cautious in their procurement strategies due to rising costs, with many projects being halted due to high storage chip prices [5]. - Semiconductor companies like SMIC have delayed shipments of mobile products due to supply shortages and price increases [5]. - The current inventory levels of major manufacturers are nearing depletion, limiting their ability to lower prices [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Even if manufacturers choose to increase production, it will take one to two years to meet current market demand [6]. - The ongoing AI demand may have speculative elements, and true demand levels may not be clear until next year [6]. - It is anticipated that storage chip prices will continue to rise in the first half of next year due to reduced production by major suppliers [6].