Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Macro Economic Outlook for China**: The actual GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to be around 5%, reflecting government confidence and policy strength. Over the next decade, GDP growth must not be lower than 3.5% to reach the level of moderately developed countries [1][4] - **Fiscal Policy**: The fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary, with a fiscal deficit rate maintained at around 4%. Special government bonds may increase to 2 trillion, and special bonds could reach 4.6 trillion [1][5][6] - **Investment and Consumption**: Investment is anticipated to achieve positive growth in 2026, while export growth is expected to remain strong but slightly decrease to 3.5%-4%. Consumption is influenced by subsidy uncertainties and needs further analysis [1][7] Key Points - **New Economy Contribution**: The new economy's share of GDP has risen to approximately 18%, with high-tech investment accounting for 12% of total investment. The new economy has surpassed the traditional economy in scale, significantly driving economic growth [1][12] - **Impact of Artificial Intelligence**: AI significantly affects energy demand, with data centers' electricity consumption continuously increasing, driving demand for energy storage and raw materials like copper, aluminum, silicon, and rare earths [1][13] - **Consumer Market Performance**: In 2025, consumer growth reached its best level in 20 years, but sales of subsidized goods have declined. Internal consumption momentum is rising, with significant contributions from daily necessities, services, and cultural education products [1][14] Additional Insights - **Real Estate Market Trends**: Although the real estate market is still experiencing negative growth, the rate of decline is slowing, indicating stabilization. Policy support is crucial, and adjustments to mortgage rates are necessary to stabilize housing demand [2][21][23] - **Price Trends**: CPI is expected to return to around 0.5% in 2026, while PPI may also recover but is projected to remain negative. This indicates potential improvements in industrial profit margins and boosts confidence in listed companies' earnings [2][24][26] - **Future of Capital Markets**: The outlook for the capital market is optimistic, with expectations that the technology sector will continue to lead. The market performance will be influenced more by industry highlights and mid-level performance rather than macroeconomic fluctuations [1][29]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic data for October indicates a slowdown across various sectors, including industrial production, services, investment, retail sales, exports, and real estate sales, with notable declines in industrial value-added growth to 4.9% year-on-year, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month [2][26]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Industrial Production**: The industrial value-added growth rate fell to 4.9% in October, with manufacturing showing significant deceleration. The electricity and water industries saw slight increases, while sectors like food and beverage, as well as non-ferrous metals, experienced declines [1][3][4]. - **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year in October, with real estate development investment dropping to 18% of total fixed asset investment, the lowest since 2018. This indicates a reduced reliance on real estate within the economy [1][2][4]. - **Real Estate Market**: The real estate market remains under pressure, with declines in new construction, construction, and completion areas. The second-hand housing market also showed weakness, with both new and second-hand housing price indices reflecting fatigue [5][6]. - **Retail Sales**: Social retail sales grew by 2.9% year-on-year in October, slightly lower than September's 3%. However, offline consumption and service sector spending showed improvement, with retail sales excluding automobiles growing by 4% [6][9]. - **PMI Data**: The manufacturing PMI decreased to 49, indicating contraction, while the services PMI saw a slight increase, suggesting a lack of significant improvement in economic recovery [7][26]. - **Inflation Metrics**: The CPI rose to 0.2% year-on-year, driven by a low base effect from the previous year and supply reductions in certain categories. The PPI remained negative at -2.1%, although the decline was less severe than before [11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Fiscal and Monetary Policy**: Fiscal spending saw a significant drop of 9.8% year-on-year, while tax revenues remained robust, particularly personal income tax, which grew by 27.26%. However, the overall fiscal policy appears insufficient to counteract the economic slowdown [22][24]. - **Consumer Behavior**: Despite a general decline in retail data, certain sectors like high-end services and overseas brands showed signs of recovery. The demand for services such as business travel and hotel stays remained stable [20][15]. - **Sectoral Disparities**: There is a noticeable divergence between different industries, with some sectors performing relatively well while others face greater challenges. This structural change in the economy necessitates close monitoring [27][26]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, highlighting the current state of the economy and various sectors, along with the implications for future investment opportunities and risks.

Economic Performance - The GDP of Jining City for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 471.6 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.8% at constant prices [1] - The total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in the city was 86.15 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [1] - The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size grew by 7.7%, while the manufacturing sector saw a growth of 9.7% [1] Industry Growth - Nearly 80% of industries maintained growth, with 30 out of 38 major industry categories experiencing increases, resulting in a growth coverage of 78.9% [1] - From January to August, the operating income of the service industry above designated size reached 41.68 billion yuan, marking a growth of 10.7% [1] - Among the ten major industry categories, nine saw increases while one experienced a decline, with six categories maintaining double-digit growth [1] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment grew by 2%, indicating a continuous improvement in investment structure [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in the city increased by 6.7% [1] Trade and Financial Indicators - The total import and export volume of the city reached 106.62 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [1] - The general public budget revenue of the city completed 40.41 billion yuan, with a growth of 1.1% [1] - By the end of September, the balance of deposits in financial institutions (in both domestic and foreign currencies) was 1,065.58 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [1]

Economic Development - Jiang'an County's GDP surpassed 20 billion yuan in 2021 and is projected to reach 23.183 billion yuan in 2024, ranking first among counties in Yibin City [4][5] - The county aims to become a leader in county-level economic development, focusing on a new pattern of synchronized urban-rural development [5] Industrial Growth - Jiang'an Economic Development Zone has successfully established itself as a provincial-level economic and chemical park, becoming a core area for the development of a 100 billion yuan power battery industry cluster [6] - The industrial output value of the zone reached 18.938 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for nearly one-quarter of the county's GDP, with industrial tax revenue exceeding 1.27 billion yuan, representing over 60% of the county's total tax revenue [6] Agricultural Modernization - The county has built a 5,500-acre seed industry demonstration park and facilitated the establishment of 30,000 acres of seed production bases, leading to a total agricultural output value exceeding 6.5 billion yuan in 2024 [7][8] - Jiang'an County has established the largest eel farming base in the province and created several modern agricultural parks, enhancing its agricultural profile [8] Service Sector Enhancement - The county's retail sales of consumer goods are expected to reach 10.944 billion yuan in 2024, with the tertiary industry contributing 12.166 billion yuan, accounting for 52.5% of GDP [9] - New business models, such as cross-border e-commerce, have emerged, with a local company securing over 4 million yuan in high-end custom orders [9] Future Outlook - Jiang'an County plans to strengthen its industrial base and optimize its industrial layout, focusing on energy and chemical industries while promoting traditional industry upgrades [10][11] - The county aims to enhance agricultural quality and promote rural revitalization, as well as deepen the integration of culture and tourism to build a modern service industry system [11]

□四川日报全媒体记者 王眉灵数读宜宾 "十四五" 地区生产总值 由2020年的2863.5亿元 增长到2024年的4005.8亿元 跨越两个千亿级台阶 稳居全省第三 全国GDP百强城市 排名上升至87位 人均地区生产总值达86714元 高于全省平均水平 产业升级 工业 2024年全部工业增加值1607.9亿元 是"十三五"末的1.5倍 是"十三五"末的1.5倍 农业 酿酒专用粮、茶园、蚕桑、油樟面积居全省第一 打造宜宾早虾、长宁竹荪、筠连红茶等 连续4年稳居全省第二 在全省的占比由7.6%提升至9% 连续入选全国先进制造业百强市 服务业 打造万象宜宾天地、冠英古街、 长江音悦街等消费新场景 2024年服务业增加值1696.3亿元 11个全国名特优新农产品 2024年农林牧渔总产值683.3亿元 是"十三五"末的1.2倍 城乡融合 以片区化思路 打造31个城乡融合发展试验区 建成首批14个和美乡村生活聚居点 地区生产总值超200亿元的县（区） 由2020年的2个 增加至2024年的9个 民生改善 实现"县县通高速" 成宜高铁、渝昆高铁渝宜段通车运营 全面融入成渝"1小时经济圈" 常态化开行 宜宾至重庆、宜昌、武 ...

本文档仅供上海信鱼私募基金管理有限公司18860455898研究使用，请勿外传 ab 21 November 2025 Global Research US Economics Weekly Will the FOMC move the meeting? Economic comment: a December meeting just before the employment data? Will the FOMC move the December meeting back a week? The meeting—held on 9-10 December—is earlier than usual. Yet two, not one, monthly estimates of nonfarm payroll employment are set to be released the following Tuesday. In the past, FOMCs have altered the course of policy after just one employment report. They ...

（原标题：韩中小企业呼吁扩大明年移民劳动者引进规模） 韩国《京乡新闻》11月19日报道，韩国经济人总协会调查显示，近半数中小企业认为应扩大明年通 过雇用许可制引进的移民劳动者规模，比例达45.2%；主张维持现水平的企业占43.6%。按行业看，建 设业支持扩大比例最高（48.0%），其后为制造业（46.0%）与服务业（36.1%）。E-9签证移民劳动者 引进人数曾从2020年的5.6万人增至去年的16.5万人，但今年减少至13万人。 企业雇用移民劳动者的主要原因是"难以招聘本国劳动力"（61.5%），反映企业对外籍劳动力的需 求并非单纯为了节省成本，而是出于实质性的人力短缺。企业最大制度性困难是"停留期限过 短"（47.4%），其次包括招聘程序复杂、制度频繁变动、企业配额限制及信息不足等。 企业普遍认为当前亟需"根据经济状况灵活、迅速地供应人力"（46.2%）。经总强调，对许多中小 企业而言外籍劳动者已是产业现场的必需人力，政府应构建更具弹性的劳动力输入体系，以缓解中小企 业用工难并增强产业竞争力。 ...

截至发稿，国新健康市值为98亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——大鹏工业战略配售"肥"了自家人！认购价9元，上市首日涨到118元，实控 人和亲哥哥凭配售一天浮盈2492万元 每经AI快讯，国新健康（SZ 000503，收盘价：10.03元）11月24日晚间发布公告称，公司第十二届第八 次董事会会议于2025年11月21日以现场结合通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于全资子公司股权内部无偿 划转的议案》等文件。 （记者 曾健辉） 2025年1至6月份，国新健康的营业收入构成为：服务业占比100.0%。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decisions - There is increasing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the potential for interest rate cuts in December, with some officials suggesting further easing is possible while others see no need for a cut [6][7]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut fluctuated significantly, initially exceeding 90% but later dropping to around 30% due to data availability issues from the government shutdown [7]. - Following dovish comments from New York Fed President Williams, the probability of a 25 basis point cut rose to over 70%, but this was tempered by comments from Boston Fed President Collins [6][7]. Group 2: National Economic Performance - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's economy continued to show steady progress in October, with stable production and demand, and overall stability in employment and prices [8]. - Key indicators of economic performance include a 4.9% year-on-year increase in industrial output, with significant growth in advanced manufacturing and modern services [8]. - Emerging industries are becoming increasingly significant, with high-tech investments experiencing explosive growth, particularly in robotics and AI, contributing to high-quality economic development [8]. Group 3: Pension System Developments - The Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China announced that electronic savings bonds will be included in personal pension products starting June 2026, enhancing investment options for pension investors [10]. - This inclusion aims to fill the gap for low-risk, moderate-return products in the pension system, thereby improving the attractiveness and coverage of personal pension schemes [10]. Group 4: H-share Audit Business Expansion - The Ministry of Finance and the China Securities Regulatory Commission have initiated the expansion of the list of accounting firms eligible for H-share audits, adding two more firms to the existing list [11]. - This expansion is the first since December 2010 and aims to enhance the quality and international competitiveness of accounting services for companies seeking to list in Hong Kong [11]. Group 5: Sovereign Bond Issuance - The Chinese Ministry of Finance successfully issued €4 billion in sovereign bonds in Luxembourg, with a 4-year bond at a 2.401% interest rate and a 7-year bond at 2.702% [12]. - The issuance attracted a diverse range of global investors, indicating strong international confidence in China's economic resilience [12]. Group 6: U.S. Employment Data - In September, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [13]. - Job growth was primarily driven by the education and healthcare sectors, while cyclical industries like manufacturing and transportation showed weakness, indicating an unstable growth foundation [13].

美国财长贝森特近日公开驳斥了经济衰退论，对未来前景展现出强烈信心，描绘出一幅稳健增长的经济蓝图。 在近日播出的一档全国性新闻访谈节目中，美国财政部长贝森特面对主持人关于经济是否会陷入衰退的尖锐提问，给出了明确而坚定的回应。 他直言不讳地驳斥了这种担忧，并表示对明年的经济形势感到"非常乐观"。贝森特强调，当前已经为未来实现强劲且无通胀的经济增长奠定了坚实基础。 贝森特将他的乐观预测很大程度上归功于今年七月通过的一项重大法案。这项在政府主导下推出的法案包含了一系列刺激措施，例如大幅减税和为汽车贷款 利息收入提供税收抵免等。 在谈及备受关注的通货膨胀和关税问题时，贝森特也进行了积极解读。他指出，近期物价上涨的主要推手来自于服务业，例如劳动力成本的攀升。 根据他的分析，进口商品层面的通胀水平几乎保持平稳，因此他认为关税并非导致通胀的主因。 针对近期取消包括咖啡、茶和牛肉在内的200多种食品关税的决定，贝森特解释说，这是与拉美国家经过数月贸易谈判后取得的成果，旨在促进贸易关系， 而非迫于通胀压力而做出的政策退缩。 财长特别指出，得益于该法案，工薪家庭将在明年第一季度获得大量退税。他预计，这将会直接增加美国家庭的实际收入 ...