巴媒报道，2025-26财年上半年(2025年7-12月)，巴基斯坦证券交易委员会(SECP)注册了21668家新公 司，同比增长29%，新公司贡献307亿卢比实收资本。根据SECP数据，目前在SECP注册公司总数已达 279724家。上半年公司注册数量排名靠前行业分别为信息技术和电子商务行业(4277家)、贸易(2997 家)、服务业(2686家)和房地产业(2031家)等。 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index to rise by 20% and 12% respectively this year, with "overweight" ratings on A-shares and H-shares [1] - The anticipated market gains will be driven entirely by earnings growth, projected to accelerate from 4% in 2025 to 14% in 2026 and 2027, supported by AI, "going out" strategies, and anti-involution policies [1] - The current market valuation is deemed reasonable, with potential upside from AI monetization, policy stimulus, and liquidity exceeding expectations [1] Group 2 - The net inflow of southbound funds is predicted to reach $200 billion (approximately 1.558 trillion HKD), setting a new historical high compared to 1.4 trillion HKD in 2025 [1] - Domestic asset reallocation may accelerate, potentially bringing an incremental capital of about 3 trillion RMB to the stock market [1] - Total dividends and share buybacks this year may approach 4 trillion RMB, while foreign long-term investors might reduce their selling of Chinese stocks, indicating a potential buying scale of about $10 billion (approximately 79 billion HKD) [1] Group 3 - Retail investors in mainland China are still far from optimal efficiency, with real estate and cash comprising 54% and 28% of their asset allocation, while stocks only account for 11% [2] - The decline in real interest rates and high expected returns from stocks may drive significant funds from cash into the stock market [2] - Continuous disposable income and financial capital growth suggest over 14 trillion RMB of "new funds" will seek investment opportunities annually [2] Group 4 - The firm remains optimistic about the AI theme, upgrading the hardware sector rating to "overweight," aligning it with the internet sector [2] - In the consumer sector, preference is given to services over goods, with a focus on the materials industry, while maintaining an "overweight" rating on the insurance sector [2]

2026 年美国关税政策对中国经济的影响如何？ 2026 年，美国的重心将转向内政，关税的影响将逐渐淡去。尽管过去几年中 美贸易摩擦对中国出口产生了一定影响，但实际情况显示这种影响被高估了。 2025 年的出口增速保持在约 5%，远好于预期中的负增长。这主要是因为全球 制造业周期处于上行阶段，以及美国从 2024 年下半年开始进入补库存阶段， 这些因素共同支撑了中国的出口。此外，特朗普政府在应对中期选举时，将财 政政策资源更多聚焦于 2026 至 2028 年，这也将对经济增长产生积极作用。 因此，预计 2026 年的外部环境相对有利，中国出口将在三重优势加持下继续 顺利发展。 房地产市场在未来一年会如何影响中国经济？ 观开门红电话会议：内外兼修——中国经济展望 20260106 摘要 中国 2026 年出口预计受益于全球制造业周期上行、美国补库存以及特 朗普政府财政政策，增速保持在约 5%，外部环境相对有利。 房地产市场对工业经济的拖累将减弱，但对居民消费的影响仍需警惕。 服务消费将接棒房地产成为新的增长点，成为中国经济的重要支柱。 美国补库存周期预计持续到 2026 年上半年，美联储降息将带动全球工 业生 ...

每经AI快讯，日本12月服务业PMI终值51.6，前值52.5。 ...

Group 1 - The core argument is that the high growth in equipment investment is not driven by the "Two New" policies or the Juglar cycle, but rather by strong investment in broad infrastructure and the service sector [1][8][70] - Equipment investment growth is significantly higher in sectors such as construction (65.5%), narrow infrastructure (46.1%), public utilities (16.5%), and services (13.9%) compared to manufacturing (6.5%), contributing an additional 8.1 percentage points to overall equipment investment [1][8][70] - In 2025, manufacturing investment growth is expected to decline to 1.9%, while equipment investment will maintain high growth at 12.2%, driven by digital and energy infrastructure [1][8][70] Group 2 - The strong growth in equipment investment is fueled by the establishment of a modern industrial system, which enhances digital infrastructure, alongside natural renewal cycles and recovering travel demand [3][25][70] - Key sectors such as software and computer services are experiencing growth rates of 53%, while aviation and road transport equipment investments are also high due to recovering travel demand [3][25][70] - Public utility equipment investment has been boosted by accelerated energy transition and infrastructure investment in the central and western regions since the implementation of the "dual carbon" policy [4][32][70] Group 3 - The sustainability of high equipment investment growth is anticipated to continue into 2026, supported by both domestic and external demand [5][60][70] - Narrow infrastructure investment is expected to rebound significantly, particularly in digital infrastructure and hub-related investments, with policies promoting new infrastructure and major engineering projects [5][60][70] - The "dual carbon" policy will further enhance investment in equipment for carbon reduction, including modifications in high-energy-consuming industries and investments in renewable energy [5][52][70]

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2532 字，阅读全文约 8 分钟 2025年12月中国采购经理指数运行情况 一、中国制造业采购经理指数运行情况 12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点 ，升至扩张区间。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.8%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，高于临界点；中型企业PMI为49.8%， 比上月上升0.9个百分点，仍低于临界点；小型企业PMI为48.6%，比上月下降0.5个百分点，低于临界点。 从分类指数看，在构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中，生产指数、新订单指数和供应商配送时间指数均高 于临界点，原材料库存指数和从业人员指数均低于临界点。 2025年12月中国采购经理指数运行情况 2025年前11个月我国服务进出口总额同比增长7.1% 2025年以旧换新相关商品销售额超2.6万亿元 二、中国非制造业采购经理指数运行情况 12月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.2%，比上月上升0.7个百分点，重返扩张区间。 分行业看，建筑业商务活动指数为52.8%，比上月上升3.2个百分点；服务业商务活动指数为49.7%，比上 月上升0.2个百分点。从服 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanxi Provincial Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of high-quality development and comprehensive transformation as the province enters the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on energy revolution and regional development [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development Goals - The overall requirement for economic work in 2026 is to adhere to Xi Jinping's thoughts, implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress, and focus on the strategic positioning of Shanxi [2]. - The conference highlights the need to balance qualitative improvements with quantitative growth, emphasizing transformation effectiveness and the development of new productive forces [2][3]. Group 2: Policy Implementation - Shanxi will implement proactive macro policies, enhance policy foresight, and promote coordinated development and safety [3]. - The province aims to expand domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote orderly transformation while ensuring employment and market stability [3]. Group 3: Key Tasks for Transformation - The conference outlines ten key tasks across various sectors, including domestic demand, energy, industry, technology, and reform [4]. - Shanxi will focus on expanding domestic demand through consumer stimulation and major project construction, while also ensuring energy security through a deepened energy revolution [4][5]. Group 4: Industry and Innovation - The province will promote traditional industry upgrades and cultivate emerging industries, implementing actions for manufacturing revitalization [5][6]. - Shanxi aims to strengthen the integration of technological and industrial innovation, enhancing the role of enterprises in innovation and promoting the transformation of scientific achievements [6]. Group 5: Reform and Opening Up - Economic reform is identified as a key strategy for transformation, with a focus on optimizing the business environment and enhancing the vitality of market entities [7]. - Shanxi will expand its level of openness, promoting integrated development of trade and investment, and enhancing cooperation with other regions [7]. Group 6: Social Welfare and Environmental Protection - The ultimate goal of high-quality development is to improve the well-being of the people, with a focus on increasing income and providing social services [8]. - Shanxi is committed to green development, promoting pollution prevention and ecological restoration, while ensuring safety in various sectors [8].

Core Insights - The HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) indicates a significant slowdown in economic activity in India as of December 2025, with the composite PMI final value revised down to 57.8 from an initial 58.9, marking the lowest level since 2025 [1] - Both manufacturing and services sectors are experiencing a simultaneous slowdown, contributing to the overall reduction in momentum [1] - New orders have seen their slowest growth in 25 months, with weakened growth dynamics in both goods producers and service providers [1] Economic Activity - The composite employment creation has stagnated, with weak hiring activity in manufacturing and a slight decrease in service sector employment [1] - Input costs and output charges have continued to rise modestly, with inflation rates remaining below long-term averages [1][2] Business Confidence - Despite maintaining an optimistic outlook for future business activities, the confidence index has dropped to a 41-month low, indicating a cautious sentiment among market participants [1] - The service sector PMI final value was revised down to 58.0 from an initial 59.1, below market expectations of 59.3 and the November final value of 59.8, representing the weakest expansion since January 2025 [1] Sector Performance - New business and output growth in the service sector have slowed to an 11-month low, although new export orders have increased at a significant pace, outpacing November's growth [1] - Employment in the service sector has seen its first decline since May 2025, albeit marginal, with most companies reporting no change in employee numbers since November [1][2] Price Pressure - Service sector input cost inflation has accelerated compared to November but remains within the most moderate range seen in over five years, with sales prices experiencing only a slight increase, marking one of the weakest rises in nearly two years [2] - Business confidence has weakened to its lowest level in nearly three and a half years, reflecting the challenges faced by the economy [2]

qenqpx@swsresearch.com 联系人 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 2026年01月06日 时 相关研究 证券分析师 赵伟 A0230524070010 zhaowei@swsresearch.com 屠强 A0230521070002 tuqiang@swsresearch.com 研究支持 耿佩璇 A0230124080003 申万宏源研究微信服务 设备投资,能否"持续高 宏观专题报告 展望 2026 年, 部分观点认为"两新"政策退坡或拖累制造业与设备投资, 但其中存在较多 "误解"。 一问: 设备投资高增的"认知误区"? 并非源于"两新"政策与制造业朱格拉周期。 误区一："设备投资强"源于"朱格拉周期"；但实际上源于广义基建、服务业投资走强。2024 年 建筑业（65.5%）、狭义基建（46.1%）、公用事业（16.5%）、服务业（13.9%）设备购置投资增 速均明显高于制造业（6.5%），额外贡献整体设备投资 8.2 个百分点；2025 年 11 月制造业投资增 速下行至 1.9%，但设备投资保持高增长（12.2%），也源于数字基 ...

中国12月RatingDog服务业小幅降至52.0(前值52.1)，服务业扩张态势连续四个月微幅放缓。 12月服务业需求侧表现分化，内需韧性与外需疲软并存。新订单指数虽延续了自2023年初以来的增长态 势，但受累于出口业务的再次收缩，整体增速有所收窄。新出口订单在11月短暂回升后再入收缩区间， 主要受旅游业活跃度下降(尤其是日本游客减少)的冲击。 就业方面，用工规模连续第五个月收缩，且降幅为9月以来最显著，企业反馈裁员主要源于成本管控和 架构重组。 价格方面，投入品价格连续10个月上涨，主要受原材料和人工成本驱动。销售价格在11月短暂回升后再 次进入收缩区间，企业不得不通过降价促销来维持销售。 信心方面，企业对未来前景的信心明显抬升，业务活动预期指数攀升至九个月来的最高点。这种乐观情 绪主要源于，在中央经济工作会议加码'投资于人'的大背景下，企业对2026年市场环境改善持有坚定预 期，并普遍制订了更为积极的业务扩张计划。 整体来看，服务业在2025年底呈现'低增长、高预期'的特征。经营预期的显著改善为2026年开局提供了 信心层面的支撑，外需的波动和成本端的压力仍是行业的主要制约，政策端有望对服务消费进一步提 ...