中新网12月19日电 据商务部网站消息，商务部发布公告，公布对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元 乙丙橡胶所适用的反倾销措施发起期终复审调查。内容如下： 商务部公告2025年第81号 公布对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶所适用的反倾销措施发 起期终复审调查 2020年12月18日，商务部发布2020年第60号公告，决定自2020年12月20日起，对原产于美国、韩国和欧 盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶征收反倾销税，税率为美国公司214.9%—222.0%，韩国公司12.5%—24.5%，欧 盟公司14.7%—31.7%，实施期限为5年。 根据商务部2021年第3号公告，2020年12月31日英国脱欧过渡期结束后，之前已对欧盟实施的贸易救济 措施继续适用于欧盟和英国，实施期限不变；该日期后对欧盟新发起的贸易救济调查及复审案件，不再 将英国作为欧盟成员国处理。 2025年10月17日，商务部收到中国石油天然气股份有限公司吉林石化分公司和上海中石化三井弹性体有 限公司(以下称申请人)代表国内三元乙丙橡胶产业提交的反倾销措施期终复审申请书。申请人主张，如 果终止反倾销措施，原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶对中国的 ...

转自：新华财经 本次复审的倾销调查期为2024年7月1日至2025年6月30日，产业损害调查期为2021年1月1日至2025年6月 30日。 根据商务部2020年第60号公告，自2020年12月20日起，对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶 征收反倾销税，税率为美国公司214.9%—222.0%，韩国公司12.5%—24.5%，欧盟公司14.7%—31.7%， 实施期限为5年。 编辑：吴郑思 新华财经北京12月19日电 商务部19日公告称，2025年10月17日，商务部收到中国石油天然气股份有限 公司吉林石化分公司和上海中石化三井弹性体有限公司（以下称申请人）代表国内三元乙丙橡胶产业提 交的反倾销措施期终复审申请书。申请人主张，如果终止反倾销措施，原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口 三元乙丙橡胶对中国的倾销可能继续或再度发生，对中国产业造成的损害可能继续或再度发生。 商务部决定自2025年12月20日起，对原产于美国、韩国和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶所适用的反倾销措施 进行期终复审调查。 根据商务部建议，国务院关税税则委员会决定，在反倾销措施期终复审调查期间，对原产于美国、韩国 和欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶继续按照商 ...

jis 合成橡胶早报 2500 200 600 2000 400 1500 200 AAV 1000 11/1 2/1 -200 500 -400 0 -600 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 5/1 -500 -800 -1000 -1000 -1500 -1200 2024 2023 2024 2025 2025 顺丁出口利润(东南亚 BR现货加工利润 6000 5000 5000 4000 4000 3000 3000 2000 2000 1000 1000 0 0 11/1 10/1 r 12/ 9VV V12/ 11/1 5/1 - 6/1 8/1 10/1 4/1 7/1 3/1 2/1 -1000 -1000 -2000 -2000 2020 2023 2020 2024 -2021 2024 ·2025 2021 2022 2025 -2022 2023 RU-BR NR-BR 6000 4000 3000 5000 2000 4000 1000 3000 0 2000 7/1 9/1 8/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 10/1 12/1 6/ RPORAL / / / - ...

Group 1 - The theoretical profit margin level for styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) is continuing to widen as of December 2025 [1] - As of December 12, 2025, Sinopec's SBR price is set at 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton or 2.8% from November 3 [1] - The theoretical production cost of SBR is 10,162.5 yuan/ton, which has risen by 200 yuan/ton or 2.01% since November 3 [1] Group 2 - The increase in SBR prices is primarily due to the lower price increase of raw material butadiene compared to SBR [1] - Short-term expectations indicate that the theoretical profit margin for SBR may rise slightly by 500-800 yuan/ton [1] - Supply of SBR is expected to decrease initially and then increase, with a maintenance shutdown at Li Changgong (Huizhou) on December 8, expected to resume by the end of December [1] Group 3 - Overall demand for SBR is anticipated to weaken, which may limit effective support for SBR prices despite supply fluctuations [1] - There is no expectation for a significant decline in SBR prices due to macroeconomic disturbances [1] - Monitoring the export volume of butadiene is crucial for understanding its impact on SBR pricing [1]

12月16日，工信部发布《全国工业领域电力需求侧管理典型案例（20 25年）》的通知。其中指出，为贯彻落实国家能源生产和消费 革命战略，做好工业领域电力需求侧管理工作，经地方行业主管部门初审、专家复审、复核公示等程序，确定3 4家企业和3 0项产品 （技术）列入《全国工业领域电力需求侧管理典型案例（2 025年）》，现予以公布。请各地工业和信息化主管部门结合电力市场改 革和电力要素保障工作，加强工业用电研究和配套政策支持，强化典型案例宣传推广，充分发挥辐射带动作用，推动工业领域电力需 求侧管理取得新成效。 | 发文机关： 工业和信息化部办公厅 | | | --- | --- | | 标 题： 工业和信息化部办公厅关于公布《全国工业领域电力需求创管理典型案例 (2025年) 》的通知 | | | 发文字号: 工信厅运行函〔2025〕519号 | | | 成文日期： 2025-12-08 | 发布日期: 2025-12-16 | | 发布机构： 运行监测协调局 | 分 类: 运行监测协调 | 工业和信息化部办公厅关于公布《全国工业领域电力需求侧管理典型案例（2025年）》的通知 各省、自治区、直辖市及计划单列市、 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Date: December 16, 2025 [3] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Information**: On December 15, the BR主力合约(12) price was 10,845, up 125 from the previous day and 395 from November 13; the持仓量 was 98,043, an increase of 8,209 from the previous day and 21,634 from November 13; the成交量 was 210,063, up 86,218 from the previous day and 99,018 from November 13; the 仓単数量 remained unchanged at 19,180 from the previous day, with an increase of 1,860 from November 13; the 虚实比 was 25.56, up 2 from the previous day and 4 from November 13 [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 顺丁基差 was -95, down 25 from the previous day and 145 from November 13; the 丁本县差 was 355, down 125 from the previous day and 195 from November 13; the 02 - 03 was -30, down 5 from the previous day and 10 from November 13; the 03 - 04 was -52, down 10 from the previous day and up 20 from November 13; the RU - BR was 4,355, down 152 from the previous day and 180 from November 13; the NR - BR was 1,515, down 95 from the previous day and 115 from November 13 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The 山东市场价 was 10,750, up 100 from the previous day and 250 from November 13; the 传化市场价 was 10,650, up 70 from the previous day and 250 from November 13; the 齐鲁出厂价 remained at 10,600; the CFR东北亚 was 1,325, and the CFR东南亚 was 1,600, both remaining unchanged [4]. - **Profit**: The 现货加工利润 was 451, down 349 from the previous day and 454 from November 13; the 进口利润 was -315, up 100 from the previous day and 264 from November 13; the 出口利润 was 1,291, down 87 from the previous day [4]. Other Related Products - **Butadiene**: The 山东市场价 was 7,940, up 440 from the previous day and 690 from November 13; the 江苏市场价 was 7,600, up 225 from the previous day and 400 from November 13; the 扬子出厂价 was 7,550, up 200 from the previous day and 350 from November 13; the CFR中国 was 870, up 10 from the previous day and 10 from November 13 [4]. - **Profit of Related Products**: The 乙烯裂解利润 data was N/A; the 碳四抽提利润 data was N/A; the 进口利润 was 465; the 出口利润 was -1,259, down 196 from the previous day; the 丁苯生产利润 was 1,188, down 150 from the previous day and 263 from November 13; the ABS生产利润 data was N/A; the SBS生产利润 was -465, up 60 from the previous day and down 45 from November 13 [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on synthetic rubber is bullish [2]. 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for domestic and overseas tires is decent, and the low - price synthetic rubber triggers a substitution effect. The current spread between synthetic rubber and natural rubber has reached a historical low, and there is limited room for the unilateral price of synthetic rubber and the spread between rubber types to continue falling. The BR on the futures market is in a low - valuation range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - As of December 11, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was between 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton. During the reporting period, the production and capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber in China decreased slightly due to the maintenance of plants. The rising spot price of butadiene provided some bottom support for the price of butadiene rubber. Affected by external news such as the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia and the US interest rate cut in the natural rubber market, the low - price offer of the butadiene market gradually increased. However, the spot market had sufficient supply and high theoretical production profit, so downstream buyers resisted high - price offers, and middlemen faced pressure in selling [4]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Butadiene Rubber 3.2.1 Supply - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%, and the high - cis butadiene rubber production was [unspecified] tons with a capacity utilization rate of [unspecified]%. In the butadiene segment, plants of Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, Yanshan Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Petrochemical remained shut down, and some plants of Shanghai Petrochemical, Maoming Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou Petrochemical carried out maintenance, leading to a decline in production. In the butadiene rubber segment, Yulong Petrochemical restarted production, and the supply of high - cis butadiene rubber in China remained sufficient [2]. 3.2.2 Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, trading was dull, and prices were weak. Some enterprises offered discounts to boost purchases, but the effect was limited as demand was flat, and agents mainly digested existing inventories and postponed replenishment. In the all - steel tire market, the market was cold, and it was the off - season. The trading volume further weakened, with the southern region performing better than the northern region. Sales in many southern regions decreased by about 15%, and some areas in the northwest and northeast saw a sharp decline. Agents had sufficient inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 411,000 tons, a 13.11% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 323,300 tons, a 0.34% week - on - week decrease. The enterprise inventory of butadiene decreased by 8.22% week - on - week, and the port inventory decreased by 12.65% week - on - week. For butadiene rubber, due to continuous price - pressing by downstream buyers, the production enterprise inventory increased, while the trading enterprise inventory decreased slightly [2]. 3.2.4 Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 670 yuan/ton, in East China was - 520 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 470 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2.5 Spread/Price Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 4,510 yuan/ton (a 3.11% decrease), the NR - BR spread was 1,610 yuan/ton (a 1.53% decrease), and the BR - SC price ratio was 0.77% [2]. 3.2.6 Profit - The production gross profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,764 yuan/ton, and that through C4 extraction was 202.23 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of butadiene rubber was 787 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.02% [2]. 3.2.7 Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 and narrowed the supply surplus forecast slightly. OPEC+ slightly increased crude oil production in November and maintained the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, efforts to stabilize the real estate market, and the implementation of a special consumption - boosting action. The Fed cut interest rates in December, and the expectation of further rate cuts increased. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia reignited, and the impact of weather disturbances declined [2]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: No specific strategy. Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Key risks to monitor include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3.4 Price Data - The report provides detailed price data of synthetic rubber, natural rubber, and related products, including ex - factory prices, market prices, and their daily and weekly changes [6][7]. 3.5 Plant Maintenance Data - The report lists the maintenance data of butadiene and high - cis butadiene rubber plants in China in 2025, including the production enterprises, maintenance capacities, shutdown times, and startup times [9]. 3.6 Market Seasonal Charts - The report presents multiple seasonal charts, such as the BR spread and basis seasonal charts, butadiene price seasonal charts (domestic and international), production and inventory seasonal charts of butadiene, butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber, as well as production, start - up, and inventory seasonal charts of downstream products like tires and conveyor belts [10][26][31]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to acquire 80% of Ningbo Aisikai Synthetic Rubber Co., Ltd. for approximately 516 million yuan, previously held by SK Hong Kong [1][8]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price is set at around 516 million yuan, with the payment structured in three installments [3][10]. - In addition to the equity acquisition, the company will also acquire relevant intellectual property from the target company, with a transfer price not exceeding 64.7 million yuan [3][10]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - Following the acquisition, Ningbo Aisikai will become a subsidiary of the company and will be included in its financial statements, enhancing its industrial layout [5][12]. - The target company possesses significant core technologies in the elastomer field, which will further strengthen the company's position in this sector [5][12]. Group 3: Background Information - The initial investment in Ningbo Aisikai by SK Group was as high as 1.7 billion yuan, and it currently has an annual production capacity of 65,000 tons of ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) [7][14]. - The company has a long-standing focus on the research and production of high-performance thermoplastic elastomers, biodegradable materials, and masterbatches, with applications in the automotive and tire industries [7][14].

目录 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 橡胶：多单离场暂时观望 橡胶周报 2025/12/13 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 01 周度评估及策略推荐 06 供应端 周度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注 多单离场观望为主 ◆ 11月中旬，橡胶仓单到期预期出库10-11万吨，交易所的橡胶库存和仓单将显著减少，库存偏低，容易引发多头关注。 ◆ 12月仍然处于冬储等需求偏多的季节，没到供需边际走差的季节。 ◆ 12月中旬泰国主产区有连续的降雨。但发生洪水概率很低。 ◆ 泰国柬埔寨冲突导致了胶价的偏强。但整体商品下跌，避免补跌风险。 ◆ 泰国柬埔寨冲突主要地区集中在泰国东北部区域。包括乌汶府、四色菊府和素林府边境地区，三个地区2024年天然橡胶产量整体约26-27万 吨，占全国总产量约5-6%。此次摩擦升级导致边界居民撤离，靠近边境线200公里以内胶厂被迫停工，割胶及生产工人均出现短缺，有一定 的供应利多影响。主要看冲突的时间长度。 ◆ 公众号五矿微服务，每日早晨有最新版， ...

1. 2025年12月10日-12月16日期间，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期增加，赤道以北高降水量区域主要集中在 越南中部、泰国南部地区，其余大部分区域降水处于偏低状态，对割胶工作影响增强；赤道以南高降水量区域主要分 布在印尼中西部、马来西部等地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强。 本周天然橡胶震荡重心略有上移。从宏观角度看，本周美联储降息如期落地，国内政治局会议及中央经济工作回落陆续召 开，宏观面偏暖。从天然橡胶基本面看，国内外的天然橡胶原料价格呈现弱稳。国内市场对停割减产的交易情绪已基本消 化完毕，而东南亚主产区随着天气条件改善进入季节性旺产期，胶价有所承压。之后泰国与柬埔寨边境紧张局势升级，引 发了市场对局部产区割胶作业及加工厂生产的担忧。尽管冲突区域并非核心产区，实际产量影响有限，但这一事件推动胶 价止跌。目前下游需求有限，仍未改变天然橡胶总库存缓慢累积的趋势。从合成橡胶基本面看，原料丁二烯价格暂稳，本 周顺丁橡胶装置存在检修，国内高顺顺丁橡胶产量小幅下降。但下游需求受限，中间商出货持续承压。整体来看，橡胶盘 面缺乏突出矛盾，难以形成趋势行情，震荡为主。关注原料端价格变化 ...