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合成橡胶:丁二烯港口库存偏低 叠加商品偏强 BR短期坚挺
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-16 02:08
Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of July 15, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9400 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton; CIF price for butadiene in China is 1070 USD/ton, unchanged; the market price for styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11650 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -2530 yuan/ton for styrene-butadiene rubber - Thai mix, and a basis of 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month; styrene-butadiene rubber production was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month; semi-steel tire production was 55.23 million units, an increase of 2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year; full-steel tire production was 12.62 million units, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year [2] - As of July 10, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry show differentiation: butadiene industry operating rate is 68.9%, a decrease of 2.8% month-on-month; high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber industry operating rate is 65.5%, a decrease of 2.2% month-on-month; semi-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 65.8%, an increase of 2.6% month-on-month; full-steel tire sample manufacturers' operating rate is 61.1%, a decrease of 0.7% month-on-month [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 9, butadiene port inventory is 23,600 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons; styrene-butadiene rubber factory inventory is 26,500 tons, an increase of 150 tons, a decrease of 0.6% month-on-month; traders' inventory is 6,270 tons, a decrease of 530 tons, a decrease of 7.8% month-on-month [3] Industry News - Longzhong Information reported on July 15 that Heze Kexin Chemical Co., Ltd. has an 80,000 tons/year nickel-based high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber unit that was shut down for maintenance on May 24 and is scheduled to restart within the week. Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year high cis-styrene-butadiene rubber unit has been shut down for maintenance since the end of May and is scheduled to restart around July 20 [4] Market Analysis - On July 15, commodity prices fell, leading to a pullback in BR prices, with the main contract BR2508 closing at 11,535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% compared to the previous day's settlement price. Recent maintenance of some butadiene units and limited ship cargo replenishment have supported butadiene prices due to low port inventory, but multiple domestic units are scheduled to restart in mid to late July, with Jilin Petrochemical's new unit expected to start operation around July 20. On the supply side, as butadiene prices decline, the profit margin for styrene-butadiene rubber is expected to recover, limiting the downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber operating rates. On the demand side, tire order conditions are not optimistic, with high inventory levels hindering the increase in tire operating rates. Overall, short-term cost stabilization is expected, with limited downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber supply, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance, and BR prices are expected to fluctuate [5]
永安合成橡胶早报-20250714
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 02:48
乖 灰安期货 永安合成橡胶早报 BR - 160000 BR价格结构 BR主力合约盘面概览 17000 140000 11800 120000 15000 11600 1000000 11400 13000 80000 11200 60000 11000 11000 40000 10800 9000 20000 10600 7000 10400 07合约 08合约 09合约 现货 -- 7/11 -- 7/10 -- 7/9 --- 7/4 --- 6/11 「苯-BR基差 顺丁-BR基差 BR07-08 2500 1000 800 800 2000 600 600 1 200 400 400 1000 200 200 500 -20Q -200 -500 -400 -400 -1000 -600 -600 -800 - -1500 -800 - 2024 - 2023 -- 2024 -- · 2025 2023 · · 2025 2023 2024 2025 顺丁山东市场价(贴近下游) 顺丁浙江传化市场价(贴近现货) BR08-09 18000 18000 600 400 16000 16000 200 ...
永安合成橡胶早报-20250711
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 00:22
| | | 指标 | 6/10 | 7/3 | 7/8 | 7/9 | 7/10 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 主力合约收盘价 | 11230 | 11185 | 11305 | 11310 | 11615 | 305 | 430 | | | | 主力合约持仓量 | 21708 | 28760 | 28033 | 27783 | 27306 | -477 | -1454 | | | : [1] | 主力合约成交量 | 104597 | 105416 | 173632 | 84323 | 103683 | 19360 | -1733 | | | | 仓単数量 | 11570 | 7700 | 8600 | 8600 | 8600 | 0 | 900 | | | | 虚实比 | 9.38 | 18.68 | 16.30 | 16.15 | 15.88 | 0 | -3 | | | | 顺丁基差 | 370 | 345 | 145 | 140 | -115 | -252 | -4 ...
中策橡胶: 2024年年度权益分派实施公告
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing· 2025-07-09 10:17
Core Viewpoint - The company announced a cash dividend distribution of 1.3 RMB per share (before tax), totaling approximately 1.137 billion RMB, approved at the annual shareholders' meeting on June 30, 2025 [1]. Dividend Distribution Plan - The cash dividend of 1.3 RMB per share will be distributed based on a total share capital of 874,485,598 shares [1]. - The dividend distribution will be executed for all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, after the market closes on the record date [1]. Relevant Dates - The record date for the dividend is July 15, 2025, with the ex-dividend date and the last trading date being July 16, 2025 [6]. Taxation Policies - For individual shareholders holding unrestricted shares for over one year, the dividend income is exempt from personal income tax, resulting in a net cash dividend of 1.3 RMB per share [3]. - For shares held for less than one year, the tax will be calculated upon the transfer of shares, with a maximum effective tax rate of 20% for holdings of one month or less [3]. - For shareholders with restricted shares, the effective cash dividend after tax will be 1.17 RMB per share due to a 10% withholding tax [4]. - For Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII), a 10% withholding tax will also apply, resulting in a net cash dividend of 1.17 RMB per share [7]. Contact Information - For inquiries regarding the dividend distribution, shareholders can contact the Board Office at 0571-86755896 [5].
合成橡胶:装置突发意外 丁二烯反弹 提振BR上涨
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-07-09 02:08
Raw Materials and Spot Prices - As of July 8, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9150 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton [1] - The CIF price of butadiene in China is 1060 USD/ton, unchanged [1] - The market price of styrene-butadiene rubber (BR9000) in Shandong Qilu Petrochemical is 11450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [1] - The price difference for styrene-butadiene rubber-Taiwan mix is -2400 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The basis is 145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 305 yuan/ton [1] Production and Operating Rates - In June, China's butadiene production was 440,500 tons, a decrease of 1.9% month-on-month [2] - The production of styrene-butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, a decrease of 14.6% month-on-month [2] - The production of semi-steel tires was 55.23 million units, an increase of 2% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year [2] - The production of all-steel tires was 12.62 million units, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 0.9% year-on-year [2] - As of July 4, the operating rates in the styrene-butadiene rubber industry showed differentiation, with butadiene industry operating rate at 70.9%, an increase of 1.7% [2] - The operating rate for high-styrene-butadiene rubber was 67%, an increase of 0.3% [2] - The operating rate for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 64.1%, a decrease of 8.9% [2] - The operating rate for all-steel tire manufacturers was 61.5%, a decrease of 1.1% [2] Inventory Levels - As of July 2, butadiene port inventory was 22,330 tons, a decrease of 5,120 tons [3] - The internal inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, a decrease of 1,300 tons, or 4.7% [3] - The inventory held by traders was 6,800 tons, an increase of 430 tons, or 6.8% [3] Industry News - According to Longzhong Information on July 7, Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 tons/year high-styrene-butadiene rubber unit, which has been under maintenance since late May, is scheduled to restart around July 20 [4] Market Analysis - On July 8, there was a sudden impact on upstream facilities in East China, leading to a rebound in butadiene prices and a significant increase in BR prices, with the main contract BR2508 closing at 11,305 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.49% [5] - The cost side is supported by the restart of the butadiene unit at Lianyungang Petrochemical, with plans for the restart of the unit at Lucheng Petrochemical in mid-July [5] - Multiple butadiene units in Europe have also restarted, and an increase in butadiene exports from the U.S. to Asia is expected, with more ocean freight arriving at ports [5] - However, short-term butadiene port inventory is low, providing support for butadiene prices [5] - On the supply side, as butadiene gradually weakens, the profit margins for styrene-butadiene rubber are expected to recover, limiting the downward space for operating rates [5] - On the demand side, tire order conditions are not optimistic, with high inventory levels hindering the increase in tire operating rates [5] - Overall, the short-term cost side remains supported, with limited downward space for styrene-butadiene rubber supply, and the supply-demand balance remains loose, leading to expectations of short-term fluctuations in BR prices [5]
永安合成橡胶早报-20250708
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-08 02:07
l js 永安合成橡胶早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/7/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 6/5 | 6/30 | 7/3 | 7/4 | 7/7 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | 主力合约收盘价 | 10960 | 11250 | 11185 | 11275 | 11000 | -275 | -250 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 26276 | 28291 | 28760 | 27024 | 30276 | 3252 | 1985 | | 主力合约成交量 | date 20 | 96678 | 105416 | 87186 | 133795 | 46609 | 37117 | | 仓単数量 | 11800 | 7700 | 7700 | 7700 | 8100 | 400 | 400 | | 虚实比 | 11.13 | 18.37 | 18.68 | 17.55 | 18.69 | J | 0 | | 顺丁基差 | 440 | 300 | 315 | 225 | 450 | 225 ...
合成橡胶投资周报:原料端支撑不足,BR基本面弱势延续-20250707
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-07-07 07:11
Report Investment Rating - The investment view for BR is oscillating with a downward bias [2] Core View - Recently, the futures market has been significantly affected by negative news and cost factors, showing a clear downward trend. However, butadiene and the spot market are relatively stable. With downstream rigid - demand procurement leading to inventory reduction, the overall market shows some resilience. It is expected that BR will continue to decline due to cost - side negative factors, and the actual decline will depend on the price adjustment space of the spot market [2] Content Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - During this cycle, the ex - factory prices of high - cis butadiene rubber of Sinopec Chemical Marketing and PetroChina's sales companies remained stable. As of July 3, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton. In the early and middle of the week, the strengthening of natural rubber and news about China - US economic and trade talks did not provide sustainable support to the butadiene market. The increase in external resources of butadiene and the continuous decline in transaction prices led to a lack of cost support for butadiene rubber. Although there was a shutdown for maintenance at Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant, the overall available spot resources were sufficient. Downstream buyers were waiting for price drops, with negative procurement and firm price - pressing. Driven by weak cost and demand, the synthetic rubber futures market oscillated weakly, and the premium space for arbitrage resources in the spot market gradually narrowed. The trading center of some private resources in the north dropped to 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton [3] 2. Supply - Last week, China's butadiene production was 104,800 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.91%; high - cis butadiene rubber production was 26,900 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 66.98%. In the short term, domestic butadiene suppliers actively sold their goods externally, and the market supply was relatively abundant. The price decline made downstream buyers cautious, resulting in a weak trading atmosphere. Shandong Yihua's butadiene rubber plant shut down, while the operating load of some private butadiene rubber plants in Shandong increased. Overall, the supply side changed little [2] 3. Demand - In the semi - steel tire market, at the end of June, agents restocked, which slightly increased the sales in the replacement market channels. The sales at terminal stores remained at a normal level. The price policy for the new month remained stable, and there was room for negotiation in actual channel sales, which was tied to the sales target. In the full - steel tire market, the price in the replacement market remained stable. At the end of last month, agents increased their semi - annual purchase tasks, which put some pressure on downstream inventory. Although the circulation of goods in the channels increased, the terminal sales were limited, and the channel inventory increased significantly. In July, manufacturers had no intention to adjust the price policy and would mainly maintain the previous month's prices. The short - term market quotation was expected to remain stable, and there was room for negotiation in actual transactions depending on the agents' inventory [2] 4. Inventory - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 22,330 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.65%. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber enterprises and traders decreased by 2.56% month - on - month. The arrival of imported ships was limited, and the downstream raw material inventory was consumed normally. Although the spot trading atmosphere was sluggish, the tradable volume in the main port tank farms was limited. Traders expected a possible decrease in imports in July and should pay close attention to inventory changes. For butadiene rubber, the decrease in manufacturers' inventory was mainly driven by the reduction of high inventory at individual manufacturers, while the pressure on traders' spot inventory continued [2] 5. Basis - The basis of butadiene rubber in North China was - 25 yuan/ton, in East China was 25 yuan/ton, and in South China was 75 yuan/ton. During the cycle, the futures market oscillated, and the basis remained stable [2] 6. Spread/Ratio - The RU - BR spread was 2,730 yuan/ton (- 1.44%); the NR - BR spread was 820 yuan/ton (- 14.14%); the BR - SC ratio was - 0.12% [2] 7. Profit - The production profit of butadiene through oxidative dehydrogenation was a certain amount per ton, and the production profit of carbon - four extraction was another amount per ton. The production profit of butadiene rubber was a certain amount per ton, with a gross profit margin of 0.28% [2] 8. Macro and Geopolitical Factors - OPEC's eight - country production increase plan in August exceeded expectations, with an expected increase of 548,000 barrels per day, and further production increases were expected at the August meeting. Trump signed a "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill at the White House on July 4. The global manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, with continuous expansion in Asia. The US was expected to adjust its comprehensive reciprocal tariffs again, and the market had different attitudes towards tariff increases or decreases [2] 9. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bearish; Arbitrage: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU. Risks to focus on include downstream demand, cost changes, plant maintenance, and geopolitical situations [2] 10. Price Information - **Butadiene**: The ex - factory prices of Dalian Hengli and Sinopec East China Yangzi were 8,610 yuan/ton and 8,900 yuan/ton respectively on July 4, with week - on - week decreases of 6.51% and 7.29%. The market prices in Hangzhou, Shandong, and Sinopec North China Qilu also showed varying degrees of decline [6] - **Butadiene Rubber (BR)**: The ex - factory prices of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable at 11,700 yuan/ton. However, the market prices in North, East, and South China regions decreased to varying degrees [5][6] - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber (SBR)**: The ex - factory and market prices of some products remained stable, while the prices of some products in the North China market decreased [6] 11. Plant Operation - **Butadiene Plants**: Many butadiene plants had maintenance or shutdown situations in 2024 - 2025, such as Sierbang Petrochemical, Zhongke Petrochemical, etc. [8] - **Butadiene Rubber Plants**: Some plants like Yanshan Petrochemical's high - cis butadiene rubber plant were shut down for maintenance, with plans to restart around July 20. Some other plants were operating normally or with an under - full load [8]
宁波北仑—— 亲清双向发力优化营商环境
Jing Ji Ri Bao· 2025-07-05 14:42
Group 1 - The core project of Zhongzhe Group for high-end synthetic rubber in Ningbo Beilun District is progressing rapidly, with construction starting six months ahead of schedule due to efficient government services and approvals [1] - The project is expected to generate an annual output value of 3.5 billion yuan, enhancing regional industrial competitiveness [1] - The Beilun District has implemented a "full-chain" supervision system to optimize the business environment, focusing on key project construction nodes and issues [1] Group 2 - Beilun District has introduced an "enterprise worry index" to address daily operational challenges faced by businesses, connecting over 200 "friendly managers" with nearly 6,000 enterprises [2] - The district has collected over 700 enterprise concerns this year and resolved more than 580 of them, reflecting a proactive approach to business support [2] - Beilun District has launched 18 measures to optimize the business environment, focusing on legal services, administrative services, resource support, and free trade services [2] Group 3 - The business environment in Beilun District has been continuously improving, with the district ranking first in industrial added value in Zhejiang Province for seven consecutive years [3] - The regional economy demonstrates strong resilience and vitality, placing Beilun in the top tier of Zhejiang's business environment monitoring [3]
合成橡胶期货六月月报-20250703
Guo Jin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 13:29
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure of synthetic rubber still exists due to the long - term impact of new capacity release, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. The cost side has some support for prices, so the synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the market scale of synthetic rubber is expected to expand with the development of the automotive industry and new energy vehicles. Investors should focus on macro - policies and supply - demand changes [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 2. Synthetic Rubber Industry Chain Analysis - In June, the price of raw material butadiene fluctuated downward, having a continuous negative impact on SBS and limiting its rebound space [5]. 3. Synthetic Rubber Cost and Profit - At the beginning of June, the ex - factory price of butadiene increased by 500 yuan/ton to 12,500 yuan/ton. In June, synthetic rubber enterprises had poor profit conditions and were mostly in a loss state. As of June 12, the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber was 15,985 yuan/ton, and the production profit in Shandong was - 185 yuan/ton. By June 20, the after - tax profit of synthetic rubber was - 1,230.09 yuan/ton. With the loosening of butadiene supply in the second half of June and the decline in price, the profit of synthetic rubber improved slightly [7]. 4. Synthetic Rubber Futures Market - For futures contracts BR2508, BR2509, and BR2510, their monthly opening prices were 10,925 yuan/ton, 10,900 yuan/ton, and 10,845 yuan/ton respectively; the highest prices were 11,780 yuan/ton, 11,685 yuan/ton, and 11,655 yuan/ton respectively; the lowest prices were 10,595 yuan/ton, 10,555 yuan/ton, and 10,540 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices were 11,250 yuan/ton, 11,140 yuan/ton, and 11,085 yuan/ton respectively; the price increases were 255 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 165 yuan/ton respectively; the positions were 28,291 lots, 22,101 lots, and 1,968 lots respectively; and the position changes were - 14,518 lots, 8,048 lots, and 1,454 lots respectively [10]. 5. Synthetic Rubber Import and Export Situation - In May, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) were 607,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to May were 3.476 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.5%. From January to May, the import volume of synthetic rubber increased by 13% year - on - year to 587,000 tons. The overall import volume showed an increasing trend, and the import volume in June may continue to grow without special circumstances [11]. 6. Conclusion and Outlook - In the short - term, the synthetic rubber market has supply pressure, and the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. The cost side supports prices, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the market scale is expected to expand with industry development, and investors should pay attention to macro - policies and supply - demand changes [12].
合成橡胶产业日报-20250701
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 09:31
用率仍存走低预期。br2508合约短线预计在10800-11500区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-07-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11260 | 10 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 27411 | -880 | | | 合成橡胶8-9价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 100 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) 主流价:顺丁橡 ...