jis 加安期货 合成橡胶早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/1/26 | 品种 | 类別 | 指标 | 12/24 | 1/19 | 1/21 | 1/22 | 1/23 | 日度变化 | 周度変化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | BR主力合约收盘价 | 11395 | 11605 | 11915 | 12270 | 12930 | 660 | 1325 | | | | 持つ量 | 99013 | 94184 | 93726 | 96682 | 127376 | 30694 | 33192 | | | 学院 | 成交量 | 191046 | 114797 | 128058 | 182757 | 356678 | 173921 | 241881 | | | | 仓単数量 | 23490 | 26030 | 25630 | 26920 | 26920 | 0 | 890 | | | | 虚实比 | 21.08 | 18.09 | 18.28 | 17.96 | 23.66 | 6 | 6 | | | | 顺 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province has achieved a significant milestone by surpassing a GDP of 10 trillion yuan, marking it as the third province in China and the first in the north to reach this level, with a projected GDP growth of 5.5% for 2025, amounting to 10,319.7 billion yuan [1][2][8]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Significance - Shandong's GDP of 10 trillion yuan positions it as a major economic player, comparable to countries like Switzerland and the Netherlands, with an estimated GDP of approximately 1.44 trillion USD based on the 2025 exchange rate [5]. - The province's economic scale has increased its share of the national GDP from 7.19% to 7.36%, demonstrating a consistent upward trend in its economic performance [8]. - Shandong's economic indicators have consistently outperformed national averages during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with GDP growth rates exceeding national figures by up to 0.9 percentage points in recent years [9]. Group 2: Industrial and Service Sector Contributions - The industrial sector in Shandong has shown robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% in industrial added value, surpassing the national average by 1.7 percentage points, particularly driven by the equipment manufacturing sector [14]. - The service sector has also contributed significantly, with a 6.1% increase in added value, accounting for 54.1% of the total economic output and contributing 3.2 percentage points to overall economic growth [15]. Group 3: Transformation and Innovation - Shandong's economic transformation is evident in the shift from traditional industries to high-tech sectors, with high-tech industries now accounting for 55.3% of industrial output [16]. - The province has seen the emergence of "invisible champions" in various sectors, such as the production of foie gras and commercial kitchen equipment, showcasing the depth of its county-level economies [16]. - The province's commitment to reform and innovation is highlighted by advancements in port automation and the establishment of a zero-carbon port, reflecting a broader trend of modernization and efficiency in its industrial practices [26].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in synthetic rubber prices is driven by a combination of tight supply of raw materials, improved demand from the tire industry, and positive market sentiment [4][5][10]. Supply Side Analysis - The supply of butadiene, a key raw material for synthetic rubber, has been constrained due to maintenance of production facilities and recent exports to countries like South Korea, leading to a significant drop in port inventories [4]. - Domestic production of synthetic rubber has also seen a decline, with a notable reduction in output reported for December 2025, despite a large annual capacity of 3.8 million tons [4][6]. - As of mid-January, the operating rate for domestic synthetic rubber facilities was 79.68%, showing a slight increase, but overall supply remains tight [6]. Demand Side Analysis - The tire industry, the largest consumer of synthetic rubber, has seen a recovery in orders, particularly for semi-steel tires, following the EU's cancellation of anti-dumping measures against Chinese passenger car tires [5][6]. - The operating rates for tire manufacturers have improved, with semi-steel tire utilization at 72.53% and full-steel tire utilization at 63.02%, although this is expected to decline as the Chinese New Year approaches [6]. Inventory and Cost Analysis - Inventory levels for synthetic rubber have been rising, with some warehouses reporting stock levels exceeding 10,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 9.49% for factory inventories [6]. - The cost of butadiene has risen sharply, impacting the profitability of synthetic rubber production, with theoretical profits for styrene-butadiene rubber significantly reduced [6][10]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment is positive, with increased investment in the chemical sector and a strong performance in synthetic rubber prices driven by the tight supply of butadiene [12][14]. - Analysts expect that the price of synthetic rubber will continue to be supported by the strong fundamentals of butadiene, despite potential seasonal demand declines as the Chinese New Year approaches [11][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of synthetic rubber is rated as "1", which means it is "strong" in the range of [-2, 2], indicating a relatively bullish view [3] Core View of the Report - In the short term, with the macro - narrative of incremental funds overweighting the chemical sector, butadiene and butadiene rubber are expected to run strongly. The reasons are that the overall synthetic rubber industry chain has neutral spot trading volume, maintaining high apparent demand, and butadiene's strong short - term fundamentals push up the cost of synthetic rubber [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking Futures Market - For the butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract), the daily closing price increased from 11,915 yuan/ton to 12,270 yuan/ton, a rise of 355 yuan/ton; the trading volume increased from 128,058 lots to 182,757 lots, an increase of 54,699 lots; the open interest increased from 93,726 lots to 96,682 lots, a rise of 2,956 lots; the trading volume increased from 750,670 ten - thousand yuan to 1,104,674 ten - thousand yuan, a rise of 354,004 ten - thousand yuan [1] Spread Data - The basis of Shandong butadiene rubber - futures main contract decreased from - 265 to - 420, a drop of 155; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 (private) decreased from - 100 to - 110, a drop of 10 [1] Spot Market - The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, South China, Shandong, and the prices of butadiene styrene rubber (Qilu 1502, Qilu 1712), and butadiene (Jiangsu mainstream, Shandong mainstream) all increased. For example, the price of North China butadiene rubber increased from 11,300 yuan/ton to 11,550 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Indicators - The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 74.599%. The theoretical full - cost of butadiene rubber increased from 12,388 yuan/ton to 12,697 yuan/ton, a rise of 309 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased from - 687 yuan/ton to - 697 yuan/ton, a drop of 10 yuan/ton [1] 2. Industry News - As of January 21, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.32%. The inventory of some sample producers increased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased [2] - On January 21, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons compared with the previous period, mainly due to limited arrival of imported ships and high operating rates of major downstream industries [2][3]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent geopolitical tensions and their impact on various commodities, particularly precious metals and oil [1][3][11] - Precious metals, including gold and silver, have reached historical highs due to weakened dollar credibility and increased central bank purchases, particularly Poland's plan to buy 150 tons of gold [3][17] - The U.S. crude oil production has decreased slightly, with an average of 13.732 million barrels per day, while geopolitical developments in Iran and Venezuela are influencing market dynamics [2][11] Group 2 - The article highlights the performance of key commodities, noting that synthetic rubber prices have surged, while natural rubber is expected to remain strong due to supply constraints [2][13] - The U.S. economy shows signs of growth, with a GDP growth rate of 4.4% for Q3 2025, and inflation indicators are aligning with expectations, suggesting a stable economic environment [5] - The People's Bank of China is set to inject 900 billion yuan through MLF operations, indicating a continued effort to support liquidity in the domestic market [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 合成橡胶价格偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 受国内外原油期货价格冲高回落拖累，叠加合成橡胶供需基本面偏弱压制。在偏空因素主导下，近期 国内合成胶期货 2603 合约呈现单边弱势下行的走势，期价自 12500 元/吨附近连续收低回落至 11500 元/吨 一线运行，累计跌幅达 8.46%。当前我国顺丁橡胶装置检修损失量较少，供应维持高位水平，而下游淡季 影响延续，且临近春节长假，轮胎企业装置负荷或稳中趋降。预计后市合成橡胶期货料维持偏弱格局运行。 原油冲高回落 成本支撑弱化 合成橡胶的成本逻辑高度依赖原油产业链，其核心原料丁二烯 92%来自原油裂解副产品（乙烯裂解装 置副产 C4 馏分），原油价格与丁二烯价格的相关性高达 0.88，进而传导至合成橡胶成本端，形成"原油 价格→丁二烯成本→合成橡胶价格"的强联动链条。近期这一传导路径持续通畅，成为市场核心驱动因素。 年初以来，受地缘政治冲突发酵、全球能源供应担忧及需求预期改善等多重因素影响，国际原油价格震荡 上行。然后地缘因子持续性偏弱。随着美以暂缓对伊朗发动军事进攻以后，中东地缘风险快速降温，从而 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Short - term, after a significant previous correction, the butadiene rubber futures are approaching the low end of the fundamental static valuation. With tight butadiene spot and port destocking, increased market speculation drives the futures price to rebound [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (03 contract) was 11,915 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 128,058 lots; open interest was 93,726 lots, up 2,724 lots; turnover was 7.5067 billion yuan, up 1.39503 billion yuan [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 315 yuan, down 330 yuan; the monthly spread of BR02 - BR05 was - 100 yuan, up 5 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of butadiene rubber in North China, East China, and South China increased to varying degrees; the prices of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (models 1502 and 1712) both rose by 100 yuan; the prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong increased by 250 yuan and 200 yuan respectively [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained unchanged at 74.599%; the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber was 12,388 yuan/ton, up 206 yuan; the butadiene rubber profit was - 687 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan [1]. Industry News - As of January 21, 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 35,400 tons, a 1.32% increase from the previous period. Some sample production enterprises' inventory increased, while sample trading enterprises' inventory decreased [2]. - On January 21, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 34,500 tons, a significant decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period due to limited imports and high - level operation of downstream industries [2][3].

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report date: January 22, 2026 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures - Closing price of BR main contract on January 21: 11,915, daily change: 330, weekly change: -275 [4] - Open interest on January 21: 93,726, daily change: 2,724, weekly change: -5,457 [4] - Trading volume on January 21: 128,058, daily change: 21,974, weekly change: -21,977 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on January 21: 25,630, daily change: 1,300, weekly change: -700 [4] - Long - short ratio on January 21: 18.28 [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - variety - Butadiene - styrene basis on January 21: 85, daily change: -230, weekly change: -25 [4] - 02 - 03 spread on January 21: no change, weekly change: 5 [4] - 03 - 04 spread on January 21: -40, no daily change, weekly change: -5 [4] - RU - BR spread on January 21: 3,830, daily change: -205 [4] - NR - BR spread on January 21: 700, daily change: -265, weekly change: 40 [4] Spot - Shandong market price on January 21: 11,650, daily change: 100, weekly change: -350 [4] - Transfar market price on January 21: 11,600, daily change: 150, weekly change: -350 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on January 21: 11,700, no daily change, weekly change: -400 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia on January 21: 1,550, no daily change, weekly change: 100 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia on January 21: 1,750, no daily change, weekly change: 75 [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on January 21: -444, daily change: -104, weekly change: -172 [4] - Import profit on January 21: -1,047, daily change: 93, weekly change: -1,122 [4] - Export profit on January 21: 1,416, daily change: -80, weekly change: 813 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot - Shandong market price on January 21: 9,700, daily change: 200, weekly change: -175 [4] - Jiangsu market price on January 21: 9,550, daily change: 250, weekly change: -100 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on January 21: 9,600, daily change: 200, weekly change: 50 [4] - CFR China on January 21: 1,180, no daily change, weekly change: 40 [4] Profit - Ethylene cracking profit: data on January 21 is N/A [4] - C4 extraction profit: data on January 21 is N/A [4] - Import profit on January 21: 113, daily change: 245, weekly change: -403 [4] - Export profit on January 21: -797, daily change: 100, weekly change: 1,891 [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on January 21: 238, daily change: -313, weekly change: -425 [4] - ABS production profit: data on January 21 is N/A [4] - SBS production profit on January 21: -755, daily change: -215, weekly change: -140 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term production profit of the synthetic rubber industry is significantly compressed, but there are no signs of supply - side production cuts. The inventories of production enterprises and trading enterprises are expected to remain at a high level. The domestic tire enterprise operating rate increased significantly week - on - week. The short - term semi - steel tire will maintain a high operating rate supported by foreign trade orders, and the overall device production schedule is expected to remain stable. The all - steel tire enterprises still have the phenomenon of production control to control inventory. The br2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 12,000 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,585 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The main contract position is 91,002, a decrease of 3,182. The 3 - 4 spread of synthetic rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 6,830 tons, an increase of 300 tons [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of BR9000 from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is 145 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 63.94 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars/barrel. Naphtha CFR Japan is 548.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The Northeast Asian ethylene price is 710 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR China price of butadiene is 1,180 US dollars/ton, unchanged. WTI crude oil is 59.26 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.18 US dollars/barrel. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 159,300 tons, unchanged. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 69.42%, a decrease of 1.89 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 44,600 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.91%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons. The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 79.68%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 721 yuan/ton, a decrease of 386 yuan/ton. The social inventory of butadiene rubber is 34,900 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons. The manufacturer's inventory of butadiene rubber is 26,900 tons, an increase of 550 tons. The trader's inventory of butadiene rubber is 8,040 tons, an increase of 1,270 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.39%, an increase of 8.5 percentage points. The operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.52%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces. The monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 46.1 days, an increase of 1.48 days. The inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.92 days, an increase of 0.56 days [2] Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. In December, the output of butadiene rubber was 143,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber in December was 72.13%, a month - on - month increase of 4.65 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.68 percentage points. As of January 14, the domestic butadiene rubber inventory was 34,900 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.50% [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [3] - Report date: January 20, 2026 [3] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures - Closing price of BR main contract on January 19: 11,605, with a daily change of -210 and an interval change of -395 [4] - Open interest on January 19: 94,184, with a daily change of -1,463 and an interval change of -1,134 [4] - Trading volume on January 19: 114,797, with a daily change of -48,324 and an interval change of -15,374 [4] - Warehouse receipt quantity on January 19: 26,030, with a daily change of -300 and an interval change of -300 [4] - Long - short ratio on January 19: 18.09, with no daily or interval change [4] Basis/Spread/Inter - variety - Butadiene rubber basis on January 19: 160, with a daily change of 160 and an interval change of 195 [4] - Styrene - butadiene rubber basis on January 19: 495, with a daily change of 60 and an interval change of 345 [4] - 02 - 03 spread on January 19: 5, with a daily change of 5 and an interval change of 10 [4] - 03 - 04 spread on January 19: -30, with a daily change of -10 and an interval change of -10 [4] - RU - BR spread on January 19: 4,140, with a daily change of 120 and an interval change of 165 [4] - NR - BR spread on January 19: 1,050, with a daily change of 120 and an interval change of 210 [4] Spot - Shandong market price on January 19: 11,700, with a daily change of -50 and an interval change of -200 [4] - Transfar market price on January 19: 11,550, with a daily change of -150 and an interval change of -300 [4] - Qilu ex - factory price on January 19: 11,700, with a daily change of -200 and an interval change of -400 [4] - CFR Northeast Asia on January 19: 1,550, with a daily change of 100 and an interval change of 100 [4] - CFR Southeast Asia on January 19: 1,750, with a daily change of 75 and an interval change of 75 [4] Profit - Spot processing profit on January 19: -241, with a daily change of 129 and an interval change of -226 [4] - Import profit on January 19: -996, with a daily change of -832 and an interval change of -969 [4] - Export profit on January 19: 1,371, with a daily change of 561 and an interval change of 679 [4] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Spot - Shandong market price on January 19: 9,550, with a daily change of -175 and an interval change of 25 [4] - Jiangsu market price on January 19: 9,400, with a daily change of -150 and an interval change of 75 [4] - Yangzi ex - factory price on January 19: 9,550, with no daily change and an interval change of 350 [4] - CFR China on January 19: 1,180, with a daily change of 20 and an interval change of 75 [4] Profit - Ethylene cracking profit: Data on January 19 is N/A [4] - C4 extraction profit: Data on January 19 is N/A [4] - Butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation profit on January 19: 810, with a daily change of -80 and an interval change of 145 [4] - Import profit on January 19: -36, with a daily change of -304 and an interval change of -502 [4] - Export profit on January 19: -981, with a daily change of 371 and an interval change of 1,772 [4] - Styrene - butadiene production profit on January 19: 663, with no daily change and an interval change of -288 [4] - ABS production profit: Data on January 19 is N/A [4] - SBS production profit: Data on January 19 is N/A [4]