烧碱周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第二章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 液碱市场供需处于弱平衡状态。供应方面，短期山东液碱市场供应持续宽松。出口市场缺乏实质性提振，山东给主力下游送货量窄幅调整，整体对市场的 带动作用有限。需求端，上月底至今氧化铝企业意欲压减产的消息明显增多，全国氧化铝市场进入胶着状态，内陆部分氧化铝企业一边保有生产供应，一 边亏损。与此同时，液氯价格维持在盈利区间。后续关注主力下游送货量以及液氯价格波动。短期偏弱走势为主。 【策略】 1.单边：烧碱震荡偏弱行情。 2.套利：暂时观望； 3.期权：暂时观望。(观点仅供参考，不作为买卖依据) GALAXY FUTURES 2 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 周度数据追踪 9 GALAXY FUTURES 3 山东氧化铝大厂液碱送货量增加，价格 ...

Group 1: China Construction - The total new contracts signed by China Construction from January to October reached 3.61 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1% [1] Group 2: Changyuan Power - Changyuan Power's subsidiary received approval for the 100MW wind power project in Songzi, Hubei [2] Group 3: China Metallurgical Group - China Metallurgical Group reported a total new contract amount of 845.07 billion yuan from January to October, a decrease of 11.8% year-on-year, while overseas contracts increased by 7.3% to 71.16 billion yuan [4] Group 4: Shapuaisi - Shapuaisi received approval for clinical trials of deoxycorticosterone ketone solution, intended for use during cataract surgery [5] Group 5: Jianfeng Group - Jianfeng Group's subsidiary received approval for clinical trials of a new drug for treating advanced non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer [7] Group 6: Chongqing Steel - Chongqing Steel announced the resignation of its president Meng Wenwang due to work adjustments [8] Group 7: Tianma Technology - Tianma Technology reported an output of approximately 1732.99 tons of eel in October, with a total output of about 15218.73 tons from January to October [10] Group 8: Qingyuan Co. - Qingyuan Co.'s controlling shareholder reduced holdings of convertible bonds by 685,400 units, accounting for 13.71% of the total issuance [11] Group 9: Spring Airlines - Spring Airlines reported a passenger turnover of 506,200.49 million kilometers in October, a year-on-year increase of 20.06% [12] Group 10: China Merchants Port - China Merchants Port reported a total container volume of 17.1714 million TEUs from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [13] Group 11: Yangdian Technology - Yangdian Technology announced a change in control following a share transfer [15] Group 12: Wanfu Biology - Wanfu Biology decided to postpone the implementation of its Knowledge City production base project [16] Group 13: Iwu Biology - Iwu Biology terminated the research project for a specific drug, which will reduce its 2025 net profit by approximately 333.79 million yuan [17] Group 14: Hainan Rubber - Hainan Rubber received an insurance payout of 22.9241 million yuan due to revenue loss from rubber price fluctuations [19] Group 15: Xinjiang Tianye - Xinjiang Tianye plans to establish a joint venture with Tianchi Energy to develop coal chemical projects [20] Group 16: China Coal Energy - China Coal Energy's executive director and president Zhao Rongzhe resigned due to reaching retirement age [22] Group 17: Huading Co. - Huading Co. received approval for a stock issuance to specific investors from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [24] Group 18: Zhongmu Co. - Zhongmu Co. decided to waive its right of first refusal for a 4.04% stake in a subsidiary [25] Group 19: Tianlong Co. - Tianlong Co. reported that its subsidiary's stock issuance was approved by the Beijing Stock Exchange [26] Group 20: Hualan Co. - Hualan Co.'s subsidiary plans to invest 20 million yuan in a biotechnology company [27] Group 21: Haichen Pharmaceutical - Haichen Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate for a new injection [28] Group 22: Aier Eye Hospital - Aier Eye Hospital plans to invest 300 million yuan in wealth management products [29] Group 23: Xiamen Engineering Machinery - Xiamen Engineering Machinery announced a planned share reduction by a major shareholder [30] Group 24: Guotai Group - Guotai Group successfully acquired 100% of a mining technology company for 110.1 million yuan [31] Group 25: Wanfeng Aowei - Wanfeng Aowei reached a settlement regarding an arbitration matter with a subsidiary [32] Group 26: Taihe Technology - Taihe Technology is undergoing technical upgrades for its ethylene carbonate project [33] Group 27: Renhe Pharmaceutical - Renhe Pharmaceutical's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by 0.21% [34] Group 28: Changshu Bank - Changshu Bank's second-largest shareholder increased its stake to 3.98% [35] Group 29: Overseas Chinese Town A - Overseas Chinese Town A reported a 57% decrease in contract sales in October [36] Group 30: Canadian Solar - Canadian Solar's controlling shareholder expects total revenue of 1.3 to 1.5 billion USD in Q4 2025 [38] Group 31: Zhonggong Education - Zhonggong Education's controlling shareholder's shares will be auctioned due to a loan dispute [40] Group 32: Aikexibo - Aikexibo's shareholders plan to reduce their holdings by up to 3% [42] Group 33: Wanhua Chemical - Wanhua Chemical's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 0.5% [44] Group 34: Jujie Microfiber - Jujie Microfiber's controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 2% [45] Group 35: Wangsu Technology - Wangsu Technology's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1% [46] Group 36: Tianli Lithium Energy - Tianli Lithium Energy received a patent for lithium-ion battery materials [47] Group 37: Heshun Electric - Heshun Electric won a 40 million yuan project for energy storage services [49] Group 38: Changchun High-tech - Changchun High-tech's subsidiary received FDA approval for a clinical trial of a new drug [51] Group 39: Dongrui Co. - Dongrui Co. received an additional export quota for live pigs to Hong Kong [52] Group 40: Zhongwei Co. - Zhongwei Co. set the H-share issuance price at 34 HKD per share [53] Group 41: Fospower Technology - Fospower Technology plans to invest in a lithium sulfide project with partners [54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has limited changes and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. It is in a downward oscillation phase, and the later price center is expected to decline. The current and expected supply - demand patterns are significantly different. The upstream has reported production this year, and the demand shows weakness. As winter approaches, the active de - stocking pressure of upstream enterprises may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the rebound of the futures market [2][4]. - It is recommended that production enterprises use options for inventory management, trade enterprises consider building inventory and use options for procurement and inventory management, and terminal customers use options for procurement and inventory management according to their own situations [2]. - Key data to focus on include the commissioning of downstream alumina plants, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the maintenance information of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, and the marginal changes in the inventory of caustic soda plants [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications, mainly including 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The low - concentration caustic soda market price in the region weakened week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda decreased from 807 yuan/ton (converted to 2521.875 yuan/ton of 100% caustic soda) at the beginning of the week to 801 yuan/ton (converted to 2512.5 yuan/ton of 100% caustic soda) at the end of the week. The supply in Shandong was relatively sufficient, and the demand from alumina enterprises had a certain inhibitory effect on the market [11]. 3.2 Spread 3.2.1 Model Spread - The spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi, as well as the spreads between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, showed different trends over time [29]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - The regional spreads of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi also had different performance trends [29][33]. 3.3 Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national production capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 877,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 367 tons, and the weekly operating rate of liquid caustic soda enterprises is 88.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%. The maintenance arrangements in the chlor - alkali market this week are less, and the supply has increased [40]. 3.3.1 Load and Output - The weekly operating rates and outputs of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda showed different trends over time [41][45]. 3.3.2 Maintenance Situation - Many chlor - alkali enterprises have experienced long - term shutdowns, maintenance, and restarts. This week, the expected impact on the output of 100% caustic soda is 19,420 tons. Some enterprises also have future maintenance plans [48]. 3.3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operating Conditions - The operating conditions of flake caustic soda plants of different manufacturers vary, including normal operation, under - capacity operation, and maintenance [52]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Alumina: The supply decreased slightly this week. As of November 13, the built - in production capacity of alumina in China was 118 million tons, the operating production capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54% [55]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry from November 7 - 13, 2025 was 89.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1% [55]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of November 13, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The overall operating rate of dyeing factories showed differentiation, and the order situation was not good [55]. 3.5 Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the inventory of liquid caustic soda plants in China was 254,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%, and the inventory of flake caustic soda plants was 37,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The market demand did not improve significantly, and the inventory showed an increasing trend [74]. 3.6 Valuation - Cost side: The price of industrial salt in China remained stable this week, and the price of thermal coal increased slightly. The production cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity, with electricity accounting for about 60% of the total cost [78]. - Profit: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali on the spot side weakened week - on - week [79]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - The report also provided price, operating rate, and profit data of PVC, epoxy propane, and epichlorohydrin, which are chlorine - consuming downstream products [87][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda has limited changes and will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. The price center of caustic soda is expected to decline in the later stage. The current and expected supply - demand patterns contrast significantly. The upstream has production and inventory strategies. Demand is weakening, and as winter approaches, the upstream's active de - stocking pressure may impact the spot market. Attention can be paid to the rebound of the futures market [2][4]. - Different market participants are recommended different hedging strategies. For example, producers can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can sell put options and buy call options for procurement and inventory management; end - customers can buy call options to prevent price increases when purchasing and buy put options to protect inventory value [2]. - Key data to monitor include the commissioning of downstream alumina plants, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali, the maintenance status of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises, and the marginal changes in caustic soda factory inventories [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The price of low - concentration caustic soda in the region weakened week - on - week. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda decreased from 807 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2521.875 yuan/dry ton) at the beginning of the week to 801 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2512.5 yuan/dry ton) at the weekend. The supply in Shandong was relatively sufficient, and the demand from alumina enterprises had a suppressing effect on the market [11]. 2. Price Difference 2.1 Model Price Difference - The price differences between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi, as well as between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, showed different trends. The data showed fluctuations over time [29]. 2.2 Regional Price Difference - The price differences of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions (such as Jiangsu - Shandong, Zhejiang - Shandong, Shaanxi - Shandong) were presented, and the data updated daily [29][33][39]. 3. Supply - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national production capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 877,810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 367 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 88.74%, a week - on - week increase of 0.40%. There were fewer maintenance arrangements in the chlor - alkali market this week, and the overall supply increased [40]. - The operating rates and outputs of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda were presented with weekly data. Some chlor - alkali enterprises had maintenance, resumption, or planned maintenance, which affected the production volume. For example, some enterprises in Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, etc. had maintenance or resumed production, and some enterprises in Xinjiang, Shandong had planned maintenance [41][45][48]. 4. Downstream Demand - Alumina: The supply of alumina decreased slightly this week due to maintenance in Guangxi and Shanxi. As of November 13, China's alumina production capacity was 118 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.54% [55]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry from November 7 - 13, 2025, was 89.50%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to last week [55]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of November 13, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 66.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%. The overall operating rate of dyeing factories was polarized, with large - scale factories maintaining over 60% and small - and medium - sized factories generally dropping to around 50%. Orders were insufficient [55]. 5. Inventory - As of November 14, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 254,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.04%. The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 37,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The market demand did not improve significantly, and the inventory of some factories increased [74]. 6. Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market price remained stable this week, and the thermal coal market price increased slightly. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the spot market weakened compared to last week [78][79]. 7. Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - Information on the prices, capacity utilization rates, and production profits of PVC, propylene oxide, and epichlorohydrin was presented, including their historical data and update frequencies [87][96].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend with an abundant supply due to new production capacity and a decrease in downstream demand. The export situation is uncertain, and the inventory is relatively high. Attention should be paid to relevant policies [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda remains stable. The supply increases with fewer device overhauls, and the demand varies in different sectors. The cost provides some support, and attention should be paid to the alumina plant's procurement demand and price trends [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,586 yuan/ton (+5), the East China basis is -76 yuan/ton (-25), and the South China basis is 4 yuan/ton (+15) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method offers 4,510 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide method offers 4,590 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -100 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -769 yuan/ton (-6), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -465 yuan/ton (+79), and the PVC export profit is -0.7 US dollars/ton (-8.8) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory is 33.5 tons (-0.3), the social inventory is 54.6 tons (+0.1), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 79.57% (-0.60%), the ethylene method operation rate is 70.13% (-7.10%), and the overall operation rate is 76.71% (-2.57%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 74.2 tons (-3.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,337 yuan/ton (-7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 132 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,478 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 814.5 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -17.47 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.22 tons (-1.26), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+0.12), and the operation rate is 84.10% (-0.70%) [2]. - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.25% (-0.61%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.55% (-1.51%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.50% (-0.10%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Two new sets of devices are under overhaul this week, but new production capacity is gradually being put into production, and the supply is still abundant [3]. - Demand: The downstream operation rate decreases, the low - price procurement improves, but the overall procurement sentiment is average [3]. - Export: The Indian BIS certification is cancelled, and attention should be paid to the result of anti - dumping duties. The export orders decline month - on - month, and India launched an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers on September 27 [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreases slightly, but the absolute value of inventory is high, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, suppressing the futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The device overhauls decrease, and the operation rate rebounds. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: The alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the operation rate of enterprises in Hebei decreases slightly due to environmental control. The low - price orders of high - concentration caustic soda are supported, and the inventory situation varies in different regions. The non - alumina demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will weaken in the off - season [3]. - Price: The alumina plants in Guangxi are expected to be put into production, and the caustic soda bidding is in progress, which may support the price in the next two months. The electricity price in Shandong will increase in November, the liquid chlorine price is relatively weak, and the cost provides support [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage between futures and spot [4]. - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - variety: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound [5]. - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Styrene: ★★☆ (Bullish, and the market trend is emerging) [1] - Propylene: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Plastic: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - PX: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (Slightly bullish, but limited operability on the market) [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] - Soda Ash: ☆☆☆ (Trend of falling) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (Trend of rising) [1] Report's Core View - The overall supply in the chemical market is relatively loose, and the demand shows a mixed trend. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, overseas market trends, and seasonal demand changes, and their prices and market trends vary [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contracts of olefin futures fluctuated within a narrow range. The overall supply was loose, and the transaction was average. The demand for propylene had some support due to the resumption of some devices [2] - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures closed slightly higher. The supply of polyethylene was stable, but the demand was weakening. The spot of polypropylene showed signs of stabilizing [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene rose strongly in the morning and then fell in the afternoon. The overseas gasoline trend was strong, but the rebound height should be viewed with caution due to weak downstream profits [3] - The main contract of styrene futures closed significantly higher. The overseas market was strong, but the future supply was expected to increase [3] Polyester - Affected by aromatics blending for gasoline, the prices of PX and PTA rebounded. However, considering the weakening chemical demand and uncertain US demand, a cautious bullish view was taken [5] - The weekly output of ethylene glycol increased slightly, with supply growth pressure. A bearish view was maintained in the medium - term [5] - Short fiber had no new investment pressure, but demand was expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand declined, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol futures fluctuated at a low level. The port was accumulating inventory, and the short - term was under pressure, but the valuation was low [6] - The urea market was supported by the rumor of export quota release, and the short - term was expected to fluctuate in a range with a slightly upward price center [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC fluctuated within a narrow range. The cancellation of India's BIS certification had little impact, and the market was in a state of high supply and low demand [7] - Caustic soda showed a weak trend due to high supply pressure and insufficient downstream demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a strong trend. The cost increased, and the short - term price was difficult to fall, but there was an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass fluctuated within a narrow range. The mid - stream inventory was high, and the price increase was weak, but the decline space was also limited [8]

11月13日，北元集团盘中上涨2.18%，截至10:53，报4.21元/股，成交9629.15万元，换手率0.58%，总市 值167.23亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入937.66万元，特大单买入1653.05万元，占比17.17%，卖出421.69万元， 占比4.38%；大单买入1580.89万元，占比16.42%，卖出1874.59万元，占比19.47%。 北元集团所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学原料-氯碱。所属概念板块包括：煤化工、水泥、低价、太阳 能、风能等。 截至9月30日，北元集团股东户数6.62万，较上期增加3.03%；人均流通股60011股，较上期减少2.94%。 2025年1月-9月，北元集团实现营业收入67.62亿元，同比减少9.91%；归母净利润2.14亿元，同比减少 10.88%。 分红方面，北元集团A股上市后累计派现51.86亿元。近三年，累计派现30.19亿元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，北元集团十大流通股东中，鹏华中证细分化工产业主题ETF联接A （014942）位居第八大流通股东，持股2388.02万股，为新进股东。南方中证500ETF（510500）位居第 ...

中泰化学所属申万行业为：基础化工-化学原料-氯碱。所属概念板块包括：煤化工、低价、水泥、新疆 振兴、可降解等。 11月13日，中泰化学（维权）盘中上涨2.16%，截至10:03，报5.20元/股，成交8795.69万元，换手率 0.67%，总市值134.68亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流入215.40万元，特大单买入1093.95万元，占比12.44%，卖出1004.91万 元，占比11.42%；大单买入1375.83万元，占比15.64%，卖出1249.48万元，占比14.21%。 中泰化学今年以来股价涨20.65%，近5个交易日涨9.47%，近20日涨12.31%，近60日涨8.56%。 资料显示，新疆中泰化学股份有限公司位于新疆乌鲁木齐经济技术开发区阳澄湖路39号，成立日期2001 年12月18日，上市日期2006年12月8日，公司主营业务涉及聚氯乙烯树脂、离子膜烧碱等化工产品的生 产和销售。主营业务收入构成为：聚氯乙烯39.69%，氯碱类产品14.99%，粘胶纱线14.83%，其他煤化 工产品11.21%，粘胶纤维7.17%，其他纺织产品5.91%，其他(补充)3.40%，现代贸易1.35%，物流 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chlor-alkali Chemical has shown significant stock price appreciation this year, with a year-to-date increase of 35.54% and a recent surge of 15.14% over the past five trading days [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of November 13, Chlor-alkali Chemical's stock price reached 13.08 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 15.126 billion CNY [1] - The company has experienced a trading volume of 1.30 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 1.36% [1] - The stock has been on the "龙虎榜" (top trading list) twice this year, with the latest instance on November 7, where it recorded a net buy of 45.1663 million CNY [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Chlor-alkali Chemical reported a revenue of 5.687 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.36% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.02% to 613 million CNY [2] - The company's main business revenue composition includes caustic soda (36.12%), chlorine products (29.42%), and polyvinyl chloride (24.53%) [1] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Chlor-alkali Chemical was 69,700, a decrease of 6.09% from the previous period [2] - The company has distributed a total of 2.297 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 890 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the third-largest circulating shareholder, holding 8.2542 million shares, an increase of 1.728 million shares from the previous period [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity, while demand is weak with low procurement sentiment. Export orders are declining, and inventory is high, putting pressure on prices. However, future policies need to be monitored [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply is increasing as maintenance decreases, and demand varies by region and industry. There are inventory differences between Shandong and Jiangsu, and future price support depends on new alumina plant procurement [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4581 yuan/ton (+9), with an East China basis of -51 yuan/ton (-9) and a South China basis of -11 yuan/ton (-29) [1]. - **Spot Price**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4530 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4570 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The price of semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of calcium carbide is 2830 yuan/ton (+0). The calcium carbide profit is - 100 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 769 yuan/ton (-6), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 465 yuan/ton (+79), and the PVC export profit is 9.3 dollars/ton (+1.0) [1]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: PVC factory inventory is 33.5 tons (-0.3), social inventory is 54.6 tons (+0.1). The calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 80.17% (+3.70%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 77.23% (-1.27%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.28% (+2.19%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 74.2 tons (-3.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2344 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 125 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1478 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 854.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 17.47 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (-90.30) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (-2.78), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+0.17), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.80% (+0.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The alumina operating rate is 85.25% (-0.61%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 68.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.60% (-0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Two new units were under maintenance this week, but new production capacity is gradually being put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have decreased, and low - price procurement has improved, but overall procurement sentiment is average [3]. - Export: Exports are based on price - for - volume, and export orders are declining. India's anti - dumping tax is expected to be implemented in November, and an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers has been launched [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the absolute inventory value is high. PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, suppressing futures prices [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Maintenance of units has decreased, and the operating rate has increased. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the alumina operating rate in Hebei has slightly decreased. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will weaken in the off - season [3]. - Inventory: There are differences in inventory between Shandong and Jiangsu. Shandong has an overall inventory increase, while Jiangsu has a decrease [3]. - Price: The procurement price of new alumina plants may support prices, and cost support exists due to the increase in Shandong's electricity price in November and the relatively weak liquid chlorine price [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound and weak, with opportunities for positive cash - and - carry arbitrage [4]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound [5]. - Inter - period: Positive arbitrage for SH12 - 01 at low prices [5]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [5].