Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views Polyolefin - LLDPE and PP: Recently, PP production has declined due to significant losses in PDH and externally - sourced propylene routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and decreased inventory. PE maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually rising. This week, the inventory of the upper and middle reaches has decreased, and there are more import offers from North America. Currently, there is a large inventory accumulation pressure on the 01 contract, which limits the upside space [2]. Methanol - The market is trading high inventory and fast loading in Iran. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, market sentiment has deteriorated, prices have weakened, and the basis has slightly weakened. In terms of supply and demand, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some devices are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, which supports prices. On the demand side, affected by the off - season of traditional downstream industries, demand is weak. Port arrivals are still high, inventory accumulation is significant, and trading has weakened. In terms of valuation, upstream profits are neutral, MTO profits are strengthening, and traditional downstream profits are slightly strengthening, with the overall valuation being neutral. The port is continuously accumulating inventory significantly, and the import volume in September remains high. The futures price fluctuates between trading the current high inventory and weak basis and the expected overseas gas restriction in the distant future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure Benzene: Recently, some pure benzene devices have restarted or produced products, and some maintenance plans have been postponed, so the supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products of pure benzene are still in a loss state, and some second - tier downstream products have high inventory. In September and October, both planned and unplanned production cuts in downstream styrene devices have reduced the demand support. The supply - demand expectation for pure benzene in September is still relatively loose, and the price driving force is weak. In the short term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro - factors. - Styrene: Driven by the peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, the overall demand for styrene downstream is okay, but the increase is limited. On the supply side, under the pressure of inventory and industry profits, more devices have shut down or reduced production. Some devices have reduced production due to accidents, and the export expectation of styrene has increased due to overseas device maintenance, so the supply is expected to decrease. Port inventory has accumulated, which may put pressure on the styrene price. In the short term, styrene may be affected by the oil price, geopolitical situation, and the alleviation of concerns about marginal supply increase [10]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that the market's concerns about the current supply surplus have eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has resurfaced. Specifically, the oil export agreement of the Iraqi Kurds has reached a deadlock, eliminating about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, which is the key trigger for the rebound after the previous continuous decline in oil prices and also provides support for the near - month spread. At the same time, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and the tough stance of NATO have magnified the supply interruption risk of refined oil products, pushed up the cracking spread, and affected the oil price from the sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although the IEA report and other macro - factors still point to a supply surplus, in the short term, geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential inventory increase. In the short term, oil prices are expected to move within a range. It is recommended to mainly conduct high - selling and low - buying operations, with the operating range of WTI at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after the volatility increases [21][22]. Urea - The urea futures price has been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains at a high level of over 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing the supply pressure. At the same time, agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in the compound fertilizer start - up rate. Although there are some export port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. The lack of market confidence and continuous inventory accumulation further suppress the futures price, and there is a lack of substantial positive driving factors [25]. PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, and Bottle - chip - PX: Recently, the short - process capacity utilization at home and abroad has increased, and the maintenance of some domestic PX devices has been postponed. In addition, multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The supply - demand expectation for PX in the fourth quarter is further weakened. However, it may be supported by oil prices in the short term. - PTA: Due to the continuously low processing fees of PTA, the commissioning of new PTA devices has been postponed, and multiple PTA devices have maintenance plans. The spot basis has been continuously weak. In terms of absolute price, it is affected by the situation in Ukraine's attack on Russian oil facilities. - Ethylene Glycol: The supply - demand situation is gradually weakening. In the short term, the import expectation in September is not high, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand expectation for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, mainly due to the start - up of new devices and the seasonal decline in demand in the fourth quarter, and ethylene glycol will enter an inventory accumulation cycle. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, the short - fiber supply has remained at a high level. On the demand side, although it is the peak season, new orders are limited, and the peak season this year is not very prosperous. The short - fiber price has support at the low level, and the processing fee oscillates between 800 - 1100, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - chip: Recently, some bottle - chip devices have restarted while some have shut down, and the overall production reduction intensity remains basically unchanged. With the downstream's low - price replenishment demand, the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - chip are supported, and the inventory has decreased. However, the upward space is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the production reduction of bottle - chip devices will further increase and the downstream follow - up situation [28]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda and PVC) - Caustic Soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. This week, the supply has increased, and the start - up rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, the continuous decline in domestic and overseas alumina prices has continuously narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, and the support for the spot price is weak. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and the cautious downstream purchasing, the inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, the enterprises under maintenance and load - reduction have not resumed, the supply is tight, and the non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid demand, so the inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, the short - term local caustic soda inventory needs time to be released. With the current high supply and the poor unloading of the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. It was previously recommended to take short positions, and the short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the fundamental supply - demand contradiction is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many enterprises will end their maintenance next week, and the production is expected to increase. On the demand side, the start - up rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed their inventory replenishment, so they are resistant to high prices and have average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw material calcium carbide continues to rise, and the ethylene price remains stable, providing bottom - line support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [36]. Summary by Directory Polyolefin - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, L2601 and L2509 closed down 0.35% and 0.50% respectively; PP2601 and PP2509 closed down 0.45% and 0.35% respectively. The spread between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, and the spread between PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. The spot price of East China PP fiber decreased by 0.44%, and the spot price of North China LDPE film decreased by 0.28% [2]. - **Start - up Rates**: The PE device start - up rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. The PP device start - up rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, the PP powder start - up rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%, and the downstream weighted start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5% [2]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 (unit not specified), and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 million tons. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 (unit not specified), and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 million tons [2]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, MA2601 closed down 0.21%, MA2509 closed up 0.17%, the MA91 spread increased by 60.00%, the太仓 basis decreased by 16.37%, the spot price of Inner Mongolia's northern line increased by 0.73%, the spot price of Luoyang, Henan decreased by 0.22%, and the spot price of Taicang port decreased by 0.44% [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048%, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 million tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8% [4]. - **Start - up Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased by 0.12% to 72.66%, the overseas enterprise start - up rate in Shanghai decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%, the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio increased by 13.46% to 116%, the downstream acetic acid start - up rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3%, and the downstream MTBE start - up rate increased by 1.37% to 63.8% [4][5]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, compared with September 22, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2% to 63.41 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4% to 596 dollars/ton, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene remained unchanged at 845 dollars/ton, CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7% to 723 dollars/ton, the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased by 5.6% to 125 dollars/ton, and the spread between ethylene and naphtha decreased by 1.0% to 247 dollars/ton [9]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: The spot price of styrene in East China decreased by 1.0% to 6860 dollars/ton, EB2511 futures decreased by 0.8% to 6870 dollars/ton, the EB basis (10) increased by 33.3% to 24 dollars/ton, the EB10 - EB11 spread decreased by 112.5% to - 34 dollars/ton, the EB cash flow (non - integrated) decreased by 20.3% to - 337 dollars/ton, and the EB cash flow (integrated) decreased by 19.0% to - 552 dollars/ton [9]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: The cash flow of phenol decreased by 7.6% to - 272 dollars/ton, the cash flow of caprolactam (single product) decreased by 4.7% to - 1885 dollars/ton, the cash flow of aniline increased by 14.0% to 514 dollars/ton, the EPS cash flow decreased by 13.6% to 190 dollars/ton, the PS cash flow decreased by 100.0% to - 60 dollars/ton, and the ABS cash flow increased by 247.8% to 34 dollars/ton [10]. - **Inventory**: The pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 million tons, and the styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 million tons [10]. - **Industrial Chain Start - up Rates**: The domestic pure benzene start - up rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, the domestic hydro - benzene start - up rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%, the phenol start - up rate increased by 3.0% to 71.0%, the caprolactam start - up rate increased by 2.8% to 88.7%, the aniline start - up rate increased by 9.9% to 72.0%, the styrene start - up rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4%, the downstream PS start - up rate decreased by 1.1% to 61.2%, the downstream EPS start - up rate increased by 1.2% to 61.7%, and the downstream ABS start - up rate decreased by 0.3% to 69.8% [10]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, compared with September 23, Brent crude oil increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI crude oil increased by 0.54% to 63.75 dollars/barrel, SC crude oil decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 dollars/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82% to 1.37 dollars, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65% to 0.72 dollars, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% to 1.80 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 dollars, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 dollars, ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars, the RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94% to 7.61 dollars, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40% to - 0.76 dollars, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% to 15.00 dollars [21]. - **Refined Oil Cracking Spreads**: The cracking spread of US gasoline increased by 1.10% to 20.59 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of European gasoline increased by 1.15% to 18.86 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore gasoline increased by 6.11% to 11.12 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US diesel increased by 0.14% to 33.19 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of Singapore diesel increased by 0.86% to 18.74 dollars/barrel, the cracking spread of US jet fuel decreased by 8.80% to 24.13 dollars/barrel, and the cracking spread of Singapore jet fuel increased by 0.85% to 17.74 dollars/barrel [21]. Urea - **Prices**: The synthetic ammonia (Shandong) price increased by 0.91% to 2220 dollars/ton. The spot prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Shanxi, and Guangdong decreased by 0.62%, 0.67%, and 0.56% respectively [25]. - **Spreads**: The Shandong - Henan spread decreased by 10 dollars to - 10 dollars/ton, the Guangdong - Henan spread decreased by 6% to 160 dollars/ton, the Shandong basis decreased by 20.00% to - 48 dollars/ton [25]. - **Downstream Products**: The prices of melamine (Shandong), compound fertilizer

氯碱日报 | 2025-09-24 烧碱现货价格下跌，高度碱订单好转 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4891元/吨（-47）；华东基差-171元/吨（+7）;华南基差-81元/吨（+17）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4720元/吨（-40）；华南电石法报价4810元/吨（-30）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2890元/吨（+0）；电石利润48元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-657元/吨（-155）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-652元/吨（+20）；PVC出口利润-4.6美元/吨（-0.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.6万吨（-0.4）；PVC社会库存53.5万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率76.91%（-3.38%）； PVC乙烯法开工率72.00%（-5.20%）；PVC开工率75.43%（-3.96%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量75.6万吨（+6.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2535元/吨（-69）；山东32%液碱基差-35元/吨（+69）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 Z0003135 | 品中 | 9月23日 | 9月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7105 | 7130 | -25 | -0.35% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7193 | 7229 | -36 | -0.50% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6842 | 6873 | -31 | -0.45% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 6888 | 6912 | -24 | -0.35% | | | L2509-2601 | 88 | ਰੇਰੇ | -11 | -11.11% | TT/44 | | PP2509-2601 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 17.95% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 6720 | 6720 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7050 | 7070 | -20 | -0.28% | | | 华北 LL基差 | -50 | -60 | 10 | -16.67% | | | 华东 pp基差 | -12 ...

Group 1 - The overall economic performance of China's basic chemical industry showed a steady improvement in the first half of the year, with 535 companies reporting a total revenue of 1,352.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.53%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 78.371 billion yuan, up 0.28% [1] - Among 31 sub-industries, 20 reported revenue growth, indicating a continuous optimization of the industrial structure and steady development of new productive forces within the basic chemical sector [1] Group 2 - Certain sub-industries, such as potash fertilizer, modified plastics, fluorochemicals, and others, experienced significant profit growth, benefiting from factors like reduced overseas supply and strong global demand [2] - Potash fertilizer companies collectively achieved a revenue of 13.129 billion yuan, a 3.57% increase, and a net profit of 5.663 billion yuan, soaring by 39.69% [2] - The fluorochemical sector saw a remarkable increase in revenue for refrigerant companies, totaling 33.488 billion yuan, a 29.96% rise, and a net profit of 4.575 billion yuan, up 137.42% [2] Group 3 - The modified plastics sector reported robust growth, with 16 companies generating a revenue of 60.319 billion yuan, a 20.7% increase, and a net profit of 1.531 billion yuan, up 29.64% [3] - This growth was driven by strong demand in emerging markets and technological advancements in high-performance materials [3] Group 4 - Despite positive performances in some areas, supply-demand mismatches remain a significant challenge for high-quality development in the industry [4] - The carbon black industry faced low operating rates and profitability issues, with five companies reporting a revenue of 21.295 billion yuan, a 1.52% increase, but a net profit drop of 24% to 0.078 billion yuan [4] - The titanium dioxide sector experienced a revenue decline of 10.92% to 30.65 billion yuan and a net profit decrease of 38.55% to 1.962 billion yuan [4] Group 5 - The tire industry is grappling with rising raw material costs and intense competition, leading to a revenue drop of 11.24% to 101.613 billion yuan and a net profit decline of 21.07% to 6.85 billion yuan [4] - The government is promoting a "de-involution" strategy to eliminate unfair competition and facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacities, aiming for higher quality development in the chemical industry [5] - This policy is expected to alleviate issues of overcapacity and chaotic competition in certain sub-industries, leading to a potential phase of improvement in industry conditions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic liquid caustic soda market shows stable prices in multiple regions, with a notable price increase for 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, despite limited profitability for chlor-alkali enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The transaction volume in the domestic liquid caustic soda market is acceptable today, with prices stable in many areas and an increase in the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong [1]. - In Shandong, the main transaction price for 32% liquid caustic soda is between 770-865 RMB/ton, while for 50% liquid caustic soda, it is between 1270-1290 RMB/ton [1]. - The overall supply and demand situation in other regions remains stable, although some markets see a decline in the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase at current high prices [1]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of this Thursday, the national average operating load of sample enterprises is 85.44%, down 1.29 percentage points from last week, due to increased maintenance and production cuts in chlor-alkali facilities [2]. - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China increased to 173,300 tons, up 0.70% from September 10, driven by reduced production and active downstream procurement [2]. - In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda rose to 36,600 tons, an increase of 8.28% from September 10, indicating a higher overall inventory level due to low downstream purchasing activity [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The market continues to trend weakly, with increased supply and higher operating rates among sample manufacturers [3]. - The recent decline in domestic alumina prices has narrowed profit margins for domestic alumina enterprises, leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the North China region [3]. - In Shandong, due to the upcoming National Day holiday, there may be a delay in releasing liquid caustic soda inventory, and with high supply levels, there is a possibility of further price reductions [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].

本周烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,截至本周五收盘,主力合约烧碱 2601 (SH101) 周度上涨 81 元/吨,收盘至 2641 元/吨,涨幅为 3.16%，最高价 2657 元/吨，最低价 2548 元/吨，持仓 11.4 万手, 较上周减少 4712 手。成交量较上周增加 31.6 万手至 185.2 万手。 图 1:烧碱主连日 K 线 1.2 品种行情 成文日期：20250921 报告周期:周度 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922；投资咨询从业证书号：Z0001219) 烧碱期货周报： 延续下行 核心观点： 当周 (20250915-0919) 烧碱期货价格止跌反弹,周涨幅 3.16%。下周随着检修装置逐渐恢复,预计开工率将有所上升。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约价格 从烧碱期货周度行情来看,除近月 SH510 合约下跌外,其他合 约整体上行，主力合约 SH601 持仓量有所减少。 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线:4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 表 1: 烧碱期货行情表(20250915-20250919) | ...

PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.6万吨（-0.4）；PVC社会库存53.5万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率76.91%（-3.38%）； PVC乙烯法开工率72.00%（-5.20%）；PVC开工率75.43%（-3.96%）。 氯碱日报 | 2025-09-23 氯碱区间震荡，关注节前订单需求 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4938元/吨（-12）；华东基差-178元/吨（+12）;华南基差-98元/吨（+12）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4760元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4840元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+50）；电石价格2890元/吨（+50）；电石利润48元/吨（+10）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-657元/吨（-155）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-652元/吨（+20）；PVC出口利润-4.5美元/吨（-0.9）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量75.6万吨（+6.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2604元/吨（-37）；山东32%液碱基差-104元/吨（+37）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply increment is obvious due to short - process losses and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, and PXN is expected to compress. Suggest to treat PX11's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 6500 [2]. - PTA: Supply is expected to shrink due to low processing fees and postponed new plant commissioning. However, demand growth is limited, and the basis is weakly volatile. Suggest to treat TA's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 4500; conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply - demand is gradually weakening. It will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter. Suggest to sell call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and conduct a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. It has support at low levels but weak rebound drivers. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [2]. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is loose. PR follows the cost side. Suggest that the strategy for PR is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the main disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The market in Shandong may see price cuts in the short - term. It can be shorted in the short - term [29]. - PVC: The market is weakly volatile. Supply is expected to increase next week, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Pay attention to downstream demand [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. In the short - term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. Suggest that BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and crude oil [31]. - Styrene: Demand is fair but with limited growth. Supply is expected to decrease. The absolute price is under pressure. Suggest to treat EB11's rebound with a short - bias and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [31]. Urea Industry - Urea: The futures price is weakly running due to the contradiction between high supply and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern is likely to remain weak in the future. The price may continue to be under pressure, but it may form a bottom support near the production cost [39]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: PP production has decreased recently, and PE inventory has been destocked. The 01 contract may face large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upside space [43]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. The price is weakening, and the basis is slightly weakening. The overall valuation is neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point [46]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: The overnight oil price fell due to concerns about supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risk premiums. The fundamental outlook is bearish. Suggest to wait and see on the single - side trading, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side after the volatility increases [52]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha also declined [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and MEG will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most segments in the polyester industry chain decreased or remained stable on a weekly basis [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed minor changes. The export profit of caustic soda increased slightly, while that of PVC decreased [29]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased. The inventory of caustic soda in North China increased, while that in East China decreased. PVC total social inventory increased slightly [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased, while that of PVC's downstream products such as pipes and profiles showed minor changes [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. The cash flows of some downstream products improved [31]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased, while styrene's increased. The开工率 of some segments in the industry chain changed slightly [31]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of urea decreased. The basis in some regions changed significantly [39]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea production increased, and the inventory in factories increased while that in ports decreased. The order days of production enterprises decreased [39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand from agriculture and industry remained weak, and the开工率 of compound fertilizer enterprises declined [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PE and PP futures and spot decreased. The basis of PE and PP changed slightly [43]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: PP production decreased due to losses in some production routes, and PE inventory was destocked. The 01 contract may face inventory accumulation pressure [43]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The PE装置开工率 increased, while the PP装置开工率 decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP increased slightly [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased. The basis and regional spreads changed [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The domestic and overseas开工率 of methanol enterprises changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, and the overall social inventory increased slightly [46]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The upstream - domestic and overseas企业开工率 of methanol decreased slightly, while the downstream - MTO装置开工率 increased [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined oil prices showed minor changes on September 23 compared to September 22. The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products also changed [52]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply increased due to Iraq's increased exports and planned pipeline resumption. Demand is under pressure due to economic concerns and seasonal decline [52].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the subsidy for liquid chlorine in Shandong was alleviated, but due to the significant decline in caustic soda prices, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong contracted on a month - on - month basis. The chlor - alkali maintenance plan in September was basically fulfilled. This week, multiple units such as Xinpu Chemical, Gansu Jinchuan, and Heilongjiang Haohua will restart, which is expected to drive the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda to rise on a month - on - month basis [3]. - The profit of alumina continued to shrink. Although enterprises have not yet cut production due to cost, their purchasing intention has weakened significantly. The terminal demand in the traditional peak season is average, and non - aluminum downstream is resistant to high prices. Considering the relatively loose supply of liquid caustic soda during the pre - National Day replenishment period for downstream, the spot price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain under pressure [3][4]. - In the futures market, there are still expectations for anti - involution and restocking of new alumina plants. There is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. SH2601 is expected to fluctuate widely, and the main basis may remain negative. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm of new alumina production capacity in the future. The short - term operating range of SH2601 is expected to be around 2580 - 2680 [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2604 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton; the contract closing prices of caustic soda for January and May were 2604 yuan/ton and 2696 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 37 yuan/ton and 27 yuan/ton [3]. - The position of the main caustic soda contract was 114,144 lots, an increase of 12,443 lots; the trading volume was 477,688 lots, an increase of 35,228 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures was - 11,026 lots, a decrease of 14,988 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 940 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged. The converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was - 104 yuan/ton, an increase of 37 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The price of steam coal was 642 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, and the spot price of alumina was 2950 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From September 12th to 18th, the average national caustic soda capacity utilization rate was 81.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%. As of September 18th, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.02% month - on - month to 378,300 tons, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing [3]. - From September 13th to 19th, the alumina operating rate increased by 1.02% month - on - month to 86.23%, the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.75% month - on - month to 89.52%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate remained stable at 65.76% [3]. - Due to the impact of the shutdown and maintenance of multiple domestic units last week, the capacity utilization rates in various regions decreased to varying degrees. SH2601 fluctuated and declined, closing at 2604 yuan/ton. From September 12th to 18th, the profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong decreased to 328 yuan/ton [3].