Group 1 - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has resulted in over $34 billion in losses for global companies, with sales declining and costs rising due to tariffs [1] - Major companies such as Apple, Ford, Porsche, and Sony have significantly lowered profit forecasts or withdrawn earnings guidance due to the unpredictable nature of Trump's trade policies [1][2] - As of the recent earnings season, at least 42 companies have downgraded their earnings expectations, and 16 companies have withdrawn or suspended their earnings guidance [2][5] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs is expected to be much greater than currently disclosed, with potential chain reactions affecting consumer and business spending, as well as inflation expectations [2] - Companies are likely to seek to strengthen supply chains, pursue nearshoring, and prioritize new market expansions, all of which will increase costs [2] - The automotive, airline, and consumer goods sectors are among the hardest hit by rising tariffs on raw materials and components, leading to increased assembly costs due to fragmented supply chains [5][6] Group 3 - Companies like Walmart and Volvo have either refused to provide profit forecasts or have withdrawn future earnings predictions due to the impact of tariffs [3][5] - Kimberly-Clark has significantly lowered its annual profit forecast, citing an additional $300 million in costs due to tariffs, while also planning a $2 billion investment to expand production in the U.S. [6] - Diageo has projected a loss of $150 million in annual operating profit due to tariffs and plans to cut costs by $500 million by 2028 [6]

国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟在接受《金融时报》记者采访时表示，在政策效应释放、市 场需求边际回暖、销售较快增长、企业高效精细利用资源等积极因素带动下，今年以来工业企业经营状 况持续改善、效益状况稳定恢复。 广开首席产业研究院资深研究员马泓表示，在美国加征关税等外部冲击下，国内实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策，有力有效应对外部挑战，工业生产实现较快增长，4月份"两重""两新"政策加快落地见效，带 动规模以上工业企业利润增长加快。 工业生产向好的趋势在国家统计局此前公布的相关数据中也有体现。4月份，规模以上工业增加值同比 增长6.1%，为去年以来月度增速中较高的速度。从增长面来看，4月份，41个大类行业中有36个行业增 加值同比增长，增长面超过八成。"今年以来，工业生产平稳较快增长，有宏观政策效能持续释放， 有'两重''两新'政策激发内需潜力的拉动，也有产业转型升级持续深入、创新发展动能增强的影响。"国 家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖近日在国新办新闻发布会上表示。 分行业看，在41个工业大类行业中，有23个行业利润同比增长，增长面近六成。马泓表示，1至4月份， 制造业利润增速同比增长8.6 ...

4月份经济数据日前出炉，中国经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好发展态势。4月份，社会消费品零 售总额同比增长5.1%；1—4月份，服务零售额同比增长5.1%。1—4月份，消费品制造业投资增长 13.4%。亮眼的数据说明当前消费"焕新"持续释放潜力，发挥着经济"火车头"的作用，同时也折射出中 国消费市场的深层嬗变——供需两端同步发力，消费"焕新"正以结构性升级驱动经济航船破浪前行。 站在经济转型升级的十字路口，消费"焕新"释放的澎湃动能，既需要政策层面的精准滴灌——如以旧换 新补贴、充电基础设施下乡等举措，更依赖市场主体的创新突破。当14亿人口的消费潜力与数字技术、 绿色革命深度融合，中国消费市场必将续写更多"结构之变"的精彩篇章，为全球经济复苏注入确定性力 量。 供需动态平衡，构筑经济韧性基石。消费市场的"焕新"不是单边突进，而是供需两端的同频共振。消费 品制造业的技术迭代为需求升级提供了物质基础，而服务消费的爆发式增长则倒逼制造业向"制造+服 务"转型。 消费品制造投资大幅提升，彰显供给体系质变。制造业投资增速绝非简单数量扩张，而是产业升级的鲜 明注脚。在珠海金湾的格力智能工厂内，全流程数字化管理系统正以每 ...

浙江起草《关于进一步加强工贸联动支持企业稳产减负增效的实施意见（征求意见稿）》，向社会公开 征求意见。其中提到，大力支持消费品出口转内销。加速出口产品国内外标准转换，完善强制性产品 （CCC认证）认证制度，开辟认证绿色通道简化认证流程。联合直播平台、电商、高速服务区、线下商 超、展览会博览会等各类渠道开设浙产优品出口转内销专区，鼓励对相关流量费、展位费、租金等费用 进行优惠减免。推动外贸优品纳入消费品"以旧换新"政策实施范围，积极组织外贸企业参加国家和我省 举办的外贸优品中华行活动，推广境外旅客购物 离境退税"即买即退"服务。 ...

Core Insights - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF has shown strong performance, with a recent increase in value and a significant trading volume, indicating investor interest in the Hong Kong consumer sector [1][2] - The Hang Seng Consumption Index is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.85, suggesting potential for future growth [1][2] - The top ten weighted stocks in the Hang Seng Consumption Index account for 58.88% of the index, highlighting the concentration of investment in key players like Pop Mart and Anta Sports [2] Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 26, 2025, notable stock performances include Farmer Spring rising by 4.92% and Pop Mart maintaining a strong upward trend [1] - The Hang Seng Consumption ETF has recorded an average daily trading volume of 1.27 billion yuan over the past month, ranking first among comparable funds [1] Group 2: Valuation and Investment Potential - The Hang Seng Consumption Index's current P/E ratio of 17.85 is below 82.75% of its historical levels over the past five years, indicating a potentially undervalued market [1] - The consumer sector is showing investment value due to easing tariffs and supportive macroeconomic policies aimed at boosting consumption [2] Group 3: Company Insights - Pop Mart, a leading player in the trendy toy market, is projected to achieve a net profit growth rate of 185% in 2024, with overseas revenue increasing by 375% [2] - Companies with channel and product innovation capabilities are expected to demonstrate significant growth in the consumer sector [3]

Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China is set to enhance policy reserves and research on "Two New" initiatives, which include large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in programs, to stimulate consumption, stabilize investment, promote transformation, and improve livelihoods [1][2] Group 1: Consumption Enhancement - As of May 5, 2023, five major product categories, including automobiles, home appliances, digital products, home renovation, and electric bicycles, have driven sales of approximately 830 billion RMB [1] - The trade-in program for automobiles has seen over 3 million subsidy applications, while over 55 million units of 12 categories of home appliances have been purchased through trade-in programs [2] Group 2: Investment Growth - From January to April 2023, investment in equipment and tools increased by 18.2% year-on-year, contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth [1] - Investment in sectors closely related to "Two New," such as computer and office equipment manufacturing, consumer goods manufacturing, and equipment manufacturing, saw growth rates of 28.9%, 13.4%, and 8.2% respectively [1] Group 3: Transformation and Upgrading - The demand for green, intelligent, and high-quality products is driving equipment updates, which in turn enhance production efficiency and improve industry performance and profitability [1] Group 4: Policy Implementation - The NDRC plans to expedite fund allocation for the 2024 consumer goods trade-in program and improve fund utilization efficiency [2] - Future initiatives include simplifying subsidy application processes, establishing a direct funding mechanism, and implementing loan interest subsidies for equipment updates to reduce financing costs for businesses [2]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 核心观点 对于 4 月以来的经济情况，重点总结两方面的内容。 1 、经济的不变之处来自政策的"补"与出口的"抢" ，包括 4 个方面。投资端 1-4 月设备购置对全部投资增 长的贡献率为 64.5% ；消费端 4 月份家用电器和音像器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类、通讯器材类、建 筑及装潢材料类商品零售额对社零的贡献率为 27.4% ；生产端 4 月装备制造业对全部规模以上工业生产增 长的贡献率达 55.9% 。贸易端 4 月贸易顺差增速为 33.6% ，略低于 1 季度，但依然处于偏高水平。 1 季 度，贸易顺差对 GDP 的贡献率为 39.5% 。 2 、经济的变化之处来自地产与制造业 。 对于地产，自去年 9 月政治局会议以来，最强的五个城市（ 70 大中城市内，以二手住宅价格上涨月数和幅度为标准）二手住宅量价动能有所趋缓。对于制造业，其内部 物价压力较大的原材料业（本轮 PPI 自 2022 年 5 月以来，原材料加工业下跌幅度较大），其投资增速快 速放缓， 1-4 ...

用足用好超长期特别国债资金，推动"两新"加力扩围政策加快落地、持续显效，成为扩消费、稳投资、 促转型、惠民生的重要引擎。 5月20日，国家发展改革委召开5月份新闻发布会。 二是有力拉动投资增长。1—4月，设备工器具购置投资同比增长18.2%，对全部投资增长的贡献率为 64.5%。与"两新"密切相关的计算机及办公设备制造业、消费品制造业、装备制造业、制造业技改、原 材料制造业投资分别增长28.9%、13.4%、8.2%、5.1%、2.7%。 三是有力推动转型升级。随着绿色、智能、高品质产品消费需求持续释放，设备更新推动企业生产效率 持续提升，相关行业生产和效益同步向好。4月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值、数字产品制造业增 加值均同比增长10.0%；充电桩、新能源汽车、电动自行车、平板电脑等产品增速分别为43.1%、 38.9%、35.9%、11.7%；新能源乘用车零售量90.5万辆，增长33.9%；新能源车零售渗透率达到51.5%， 同比提升7个百分点。 四是有力改善社会民生。消费品以旧换新活动有效满足居民对高品质生活的需求。截至5月5日，全国汽 车以旧换新补贴申请量突破300万份，消费者购买12类家电以旧换新 ...

四月份国民经济数据显示，我国经济在复杂环境下展现出显著韧性，主要经济指标实现平稳较快增长。 面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的局面，生产需求保持平稳增长，就业形势总体稳定，新动 能积聚成长。 从生产供给角度看，四月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，环比增长0.22%，这一增速在去年 以来月度数据中表现较为突出。服务业生产指数同比增长6.0%，达到今年以来月度增速的次高水平。 国内需求方面呈现积极变化。消费品以旧换新相关商品销售大幅增长，对零售总额增长起到明显支撑作 用。限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额同比增长38.8%，今年以来持续提速。文化办公用 品类、家具类、通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长33.5%、26.9%和19.9%，均明显快于商品零售总体 增速。 来源：金融界 高技术服务业投资同比增长11.3%，科技创新和产业创新加快融合，对高技术服务需求扩大。这些数据 表明，我国经济结构持续优化，新质生产力培育取得积极进展。 房地产市场方面，四月份全国70个大中城市房价总体稳定，一、二、三线城市房价同比降幅均持续收 窄。房地产市场交易和价格基本稳定，继续朝着止跌回稳方向迈进。 我国经济 ...

Economic Overview - The core viewpoint emphasizes that despite external shocks in April, China's economic foundation remains stable, with strong resilience and potential, supported by coordinated macro policies [1][7] - The overall economic recovery is expected to continue, bolstered by favorable conditions and proactive measures from various sectors [1][6] Industrial Performance - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1% year-on-year, with 36 out of 41 major industries showing growth [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing saw a significant increase, with added value rising by 10% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial growth [2][3] - Key sectors such as 3D printing and industrial control systems experienced substantial production increases of 60.7% and 29.5%, respectively [2] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment in the first four months of the year increased by 8.8%, significantly higher than the overall investment growth [3] - High-tech service industry investment rose by 11.3%, indicating a strong focus on new productive forces and the transition of growth drivers [3] Consumer and Trade Dynamics - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, marking a 5.1% year-on-year increase [4][5] - The total import and export value in April was 38,391 billion yuan, with exports growing by 9.3% and imports by 0.8% [5] - The resilience of domestic consumption is highlighted, with policies supporting consumer spending expected to strengthen further [4][5] Policy and Future Outlook - The central government has emphasized the need for proactive macro policies, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to support economic growth [1][6] - The outlook for May suggests continued economic resilience, driven by enhanced policy measures and a focus on domestic demand [1][6]