Core Insights - The current industry allocation of the Bank of China multi-strategy system includes Computer (9.6%), Steel (9.2%), Non-ferrous Metals (7.8%), Consumer Services (7.2%), and Banking (6.8) among others, indicating a diversified investment approach across various sectors [1] - The average weekly return of the CITIC primary industries is 3.5%, with the best-performing sectors being Coal (10.5%), Steel (10.2%), and Non-ferrous Metals (9.6%), while the worst performers are Banking (-2.1%), Communication (-0.6%), and Comprehensive Finance (-0.1%) [3][11] - The composite strategy achieved a cumulative return of 3.4% this week, with an annual cumulative return of 16.4%, outperforming the CITIC primary industry equal-weight benchmark by 1.9% [3] - The highest weight strategy currently is the medium to long-term reversal strategy (S4) at 21.4%, while the lowest is the macro style rotation strategy (S3) at 8.0% [3] - Recent adjustments in positions indicate an increase in upstream cyclical sectors and a decrease in TMT sectors [3] Industry Performance Review - The top three industries in terms of weekly performance are Coal (10.5%), Steel (10.2%), and Non-ferrous Metals (9.6%), while the bottom three are Banking (-2.1%), Communication (-0.6%), and Comprehensive Finance (-0.1%) [11] - The average monthly return over the past month is 7.3%, indicating a positive trend across the industries [11] Valuation Risk Warning - The current PB valuation for the Retail, Automotive, Defense, and Media industries exceeds the 95th percentile of their historical valuations, triggering a high valuation warning [14][15] Strategy Performance - The S1 strategy focusing on high profitability industries shows a weekly excess return of -0.4%, while the S2 strategy tracking unverified sentiment has an excess return of 3.0% [3] - The S4 medium to long-term reversal strategy has the highest weight and has shown significant performance, indicating its effectiveness in the current market environment [3][16] Sector Rankings - The current top three sectors based on profitability expectations are Computer, Non-ferrous Metals, and Steel [17] - The S2 strategy ranks Mechanical, Computer, and Comprehensive as the top sectors based on implied sentiment [20] Macro Style Rotation - The macro style rotation strategy indicates a bullish outlook for Comprehensive Finance, Computer, Media, Defense, Electronics, and Comprehensive sectors based on current macro indicators [24][25]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.25% as of 10:28 AM, with a trading volume of 719.64 million shares and a transaction amount of 851.33 billion yuan, representing a decrease of 4.39% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - Steel: Increased by 0.86% with a transaction amount of 158.33 billion yuan, up by 85.57% from the previous day, led by Shengde Xintai with a rise of 15.68% [1]. - Pharmaceutical and Biological: Increased by 0.84% with a transaction amount of 709.46 billion yuan, down by 9.15%, led by Hite Bio with a rise of 15.41% [1]. - Comprehensive: Increased by 0.79% with a transaction amount of 12.55 billion yuan, down by 13.25%, led by Nanjing Xinbai with a rise of 10.06% [1]. - The worst-performing industries included: - National Defense and Military Industry: Decreased by 1.16% with a transaction amount of 300.68 billion yuan, down by 29.35%, led by Guolian Aviation with a drop of 13.35% [2]. - Building Materials: Decreased by 0.79% with a transaction amount of 205.27 billion yuan, up by 0.84%, led by Fujian Cement with a drop of 6.63% [2]. - Coal: Decreased by 0.58% with a transaction amount of 162.42 billion yuan, up by 275.67%, led by Yunmei Energy with a drop of 3.68% [2].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed a positive trend today, with major indices mostly rising. The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.72% to close at 3559.72 points, while the Shenzhen Component rose by 0.86% to 11007.49 points. The ChiNext Index saw a slight increase of 0.87%, closing at 2296.88 points. Overall, 4002 stocks rose, 1291 fell, and 121 remained unchanged, with a total trading volume of 17000 billion yuan, an increase of 1289.37 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, all sectors except for banking, comprehensive, computer, and home appliances experienced gains today. The leading sectors included construction materials, construction decoration, steel, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and coal [1]. - The top-performing concept sectors included cement manufacturing, water conservancy and hydropower construction, major infrastructure projects in the west, excavators, robotics, rare earths, and various infrastructure-related sectors [2].

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" research trend in the A-share market is gaining momentum due to policy support and rapid responses from various industries [1][5]. Group 1: Research and Market Response - In the past week, financial institutions published 176 research reports on the "anti-involution" theme, covering various sectors including steel, energy, and chemicals [2]. - There were 79 roadshows related to "anti-involution" in the past week, indicating its prominence in analyst discussions [3]. - Analysts believe this round of "anti-involution" has a higher standing, broader coverage, and stronger synergy, potentially becoming the main market theme in the next phase [4][6]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to promote a unified national market and regulate low-price competition, which has led to increased attention on "anti-involution" in the capital market [5]. - Analysts expect further policy deployments related to "anti-involution," with potential measures including industry self-discipline and price monitoring [5]. Group 3: Beneficial Sectors - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies include lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coal, steel, chemicals, and construction materials [8]. - The manufacturing sector, particularly in lithium, photovoltaics, and automotive, along with service industries like food processing and logistics, are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [8]. - The steel industry is noted for its potential bottom reversal, with supply-side reforms and improved profitability expected [11][12]. Group 4: Industry-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic sector has seen significant stock performance, with a 5.5% increase in the photovoltaic index over a week, driven by price recovery and regulatory support [13]. - Analysts suggest that the focus on supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic industry will be crucial for long-term competitiveness and market stability [13][14].

Core Insights - The communication industry saw the highest net inflow of funds today, amounting to 2.472 billion, with a price change of 0.77% and a turnover rate of 2.10% [1][2] - The non-banking financial sector experienced the largest net outflow of funds, totaling -5.831 billion, with a price change of -1.20% and a turnover rate of 2.45% [1][2] Industry Summary - **Communication**: - Net inflow: 2.472 billion - Price change: 0.77% - Turnover rate: 2.10% - Volume change: +3.72% [1] - **Non-banking Financial**: - Net outflow: -5.831 billion - Price change: -1.20% - Turnover rate: 2.45% - Volume change: -14.38% [1] - **Real Estate**: - Net outflow: -0.441 billion - Price change: -0.43% - Turnover rate: 1.20% - Volume change: -8.36% [2] - **Machinery Equipment**: - Net outflow: -1.740 billion - Price change: -0.53% - Turnover rate: 2.74% - Volume change: +1.31% [2] - **Pharmaceuticals**: - Net outflow: -2.819 billion - Price change: -1.05% - Turnover rate: 1.72% - Volume change: -4.71% [2] - **Computers**: - Net outflow: -3.272 billion - Price change: -0.23% - Turnover rate: 5.83% - Volume change: +9.33% [2] - **Electric Equipment**: - Net outflow: -4.443 billion - Price change: -0.75% - Turnover rate: 3.40% - Volume change: +3.09% [2]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - Domestic economic maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [6]. - The domestic and overseas macro situations show different trends. Overseas, inflation trading cools down, and the long - and short - term allocation ideas diverge. In the domestic market, there are expectations of moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal end implements established policies [7]. - The investment sentiment in the financial, precious metals, shipping, black building materials, energy - chemical, and agricultural sectors is mainly in a state of shock, with different influencing factors and short - term outlooks for each sector [7][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Essentials - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% in June, with a more cautious expectation of rate cuts in the second half of the year. US economic data such as retail sales, industrial output, and the manufacturing index showed weakness, and the economic recovery is restricted by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to issue hawkish signals [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, increasing policy expectations for the second half of the year. The "national subsidy" funds are being gradually allocated. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, the service industry grew faster, and industrial and consumer data showed positive growth [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, a weak US dollar pattern persists, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and gold [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights **Macro** - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are expected, and fiscal policies are being implemented [7]. - Overseas: Inflation trading cools down, and the economic growth expectation improves [7]. **Finance** - Stock index futures, index options, and treasury bond futures are all in a state of shock, with different influencing factors such as capital flow, option liquidity, and policy changes [7]. **Precious Metals** - Gold and silver are in short - term adjustment due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations, and are affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. **Shipping** - The shipping market sentiment has declined, and the focus is on the recovery of the loading rate in June. The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of shock, affected by factors such as tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. **Black Building Materials** - Most products in the black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, coke, and others, are in a state of shock, affected by factors such as supply - demand, cost, and policy [7]. **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials** - Non - ferrous metals continue to be in a state of shock, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper prices are high, while zinc prices may decline [7]. **Energy - Chemical** - Different energy - chemical products have different trends. Crude oil, urea, and some other products may be in a state of shock or shock - decline, while ethylene glycol and short - fiber may show shock - rise trends [9]. **Agriculture** - Agricultural products such as livestock, rubber, and cotton are in a state of shock, affected by factors such as supply - demand, policy, and weather [9].

Market Overview - As of 10:29 AM, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.09% with a trading volume of 523 million shares and a turnover of 679.05 billion yuan, representing a 5.00% decrease compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Defense and Military Industry: Increased by 1.81% with a turnover of 36.05 billion yuan, led by Guorui Technology which surged by 20.02% [1]. - Non-Banking Financials: Rose by 0.70% with a turnover of 40.70 billion yuan, with Guosheng Financial Holdings gaining 10.03% [1]. - Electric Equipment: Gained 0.32% with a turnover of 73.73 billion yuan, led by Yintu Network which increased by 17.92% [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Oil and Petrochemicals: Decreased by 1.62% with a turnover of 7.60 billion yuan, led by Beiken Energy which fell by 10.03% [2]. - Coal: Dropped by 1.23% with a turnover of 2.28 billion yuan, with Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry losing 1.89% [2]. - Beauty and Personal Care: Fell by 1.03% with a turnover of 2.21 billion yuan, led by Huaye Fragrance which decreased by 4.59% [2]. Summary of Sector Changes - The overall performance of various sectors showed mixed results, with some industries experiencing gains while others faced declines, indicating a volatile market environment [1][2].

Market Overview - The market returned to a volatile range from June 9-13, with the Wind All A closing at 5142.43, down 0.27% from June 6, while the China Convertible Bond Index fell 0.02%[8] - Since the beginning of 2025, the Wind All A has increased by 2.40%, and the China Convertible Bond Index has risen by 4.65%[8] External Factors - The second round of China-US trade talks and escalating Middle East tensions were key trading cues, leading to increased market volatility[2] - The US CPI data indicated limited impact from tariffs on prices, supporting expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, while geopolitical conflicts pushed oil prices higher[2][36] Strategy Insights - Following the second round of trade talks, market adjustment pressures stem from external uncertainties, particularly from the Middle East and potential changes in US tariff policies[3] - Historical data shows that after significant geopolitical conflicts, the Wind All A typically experiences a recovery around 14 trading days later, with technology and dividend sectors showing notable excess returns[3][39] Market Dynamics - The congestion level of the China 2000 index has decreased significantly, currently at the 79.3 percentile since September 2023, indicating improved structural issues in the small-cap market[16] - Investors are favoring industries with lower congestion levels while avoiding those with higher congestion, maintaining a "rotation thinking" approach in trading strategies[19][20] Convertible Bond Valuation - Convertible bond valuations have generally declined, particularly for crowded debt-type products, with the valuation center for 80 yuan parity dropping to 46.85%[23] - The valuation for 100 yuan parity has decreased to 26.37%, reflecting a broader trend of valuation adjustments in the convertible bond market[23][29]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-04 股指低开高走，金融板块表现强势 市场分析 特朗普提高关税。国内方面，美方称中方违反日内瓦会谈共识，对此，外交部发言人林剑表示，商务部发言人此 前已就此阐明中方严正立场。日内瓦共识是中美双方在相互尊重、平等协商的原则下达成的。美方在毫无事实根 据的情况下，对中方抹黑指责，出台对华芯片出口管制、暂停对华芯片设计软件销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证 等极端打压措施，严重破坏日内瓦共识，也损害了中方正当权益。中方对此坚决反对，已提出严正交涉。林剑强 调，施压和胁迫不是同中方打交道的正确方式。我们督促美方尊重事实，停止散布虚假信息，纠正有关错误做法， 以实际行动维护双方达成的共识。海外方面，特朗普宣布将进口钢铁和铝及其衍生制品的关税从25%提高至50%， 该关税政策自美国东部时间2025年6月4日凌晨00时01分起生效。美国从英国进口的钢铝关税仍将维持在25%。 股指上涨。现货市场，A股三大指数低开高走，上证指数涨0.43%收于33631.98点，创业板指涨0.48%。行业方面， 板块指数涨多跌少，美容护理、纺织服饰、银行行业领涨，家用电器、钢铁、煤炭行业跌幅居前。当日沪深两市 成交 ...

截至2025年5月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为42.04，较上月45.53有所下降，权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 结合上期数据来看，本期在估值和预期回暖的同时，情绪得分却有所下滑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月43.53，上月38.93）。估值整体有所回升，其中国防军工回升最为明 显，但行业间估值分化现象依然延续。目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算 机、汽车的行业估值高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场 整体估值的调整，反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所上升（本月55.00，上月48.00）。宏观分析师认为，4月金融数据显示政策靠前发 力和低基数支撑社融，实体经济融资需求仍弱。中美互降关税后，投资者对于全球经济形势的担忧情绪有 所缓解。 市场情绪较上月有所下降（本月34.07，上月50.89；分数越低表示市场情绪越低迷），需要指出的是，统 计期内市场预期体现的是专业投资者对于市场的判断，而情绪指标则反应的是整体市场的交易情况。 ...