Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply increased last week while demand decreased, with high inventory and weakening cost support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 in the 2511 contract [3][6]. - For polysilicon, supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, and demand is showing a continuous recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 in the 2511 contract [7][10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Supply last week was 88,000 tons, a 1.15% increase; demand was 79,000 tons, a 1.25% decrease. Silicon inventory is high, organic silicon inventory is low, and aluminum alloy inventory is high. Xinjiang's 553 production has a loss, and cost support is weakening [6]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the spot price in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 575 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 0.36%, major port inventory was flat, and sample enterprise inventory increased [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is increasing and near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support is rising. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8365 - 8685 [6]. Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week's production was 29,100 tons, a 0.68% decrease, and the predicted August production is 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase. Silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production and inventory vary, and the industry average cost is 35,590 yuan/ton with a profit of 12,410 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Basis**: On August 27, the N - type dense material price was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the 11 - contract basis was 310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [10]. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 249,000 tons, a 2.89% increase, at a historical high [10]. - **Disk**: MA20 is downward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [10]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, with long positions decreasing [10]. - **Expectation**: Supply production is expected to increase in the short - term and adjust in the medium - term, demand is recovering, and cost support is weakening. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47515 - 49865 [10]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data - **Industrial Silicon Market Overview**: Presents price changes of various contracts, spot prices, inventory, production, and cost - profit data of industrial silicon [16]. - **Polysilicon Market Overview**: Shows price changes of various contracts, production, inventory, and cost - profit data of polysilicon [18]. - **Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: Displays the historical trends of industrial silicon basis and the spread between 421 and 553 grades [20]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory**: Illustrates the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in different regions and warehouses [24]. - **Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends**: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon in different regions [25]. - **Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends**: Presents the cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang [31]. - **Industrial Silicon Weekly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Displays the weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon [33]. - **Industrial Silicon Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Shows the monthly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon from 2024 to 2025 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon**: Covers DMC price, production, downstream price, import - export, and inventory trends [39][41][45]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy**: Includes price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends in the aluminum alloy market [48][51][53]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon**: Covers cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and accessories in the polysilicon market [58][64][67][70][73]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Component Composition Cost - Profit Trends (210mm)**: Displays the cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [76]. - **Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation Trends**: Shows trends in new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [77].

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 8 月 28 日） 一、研究观点 三、图表分析 点评 27 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2511 收于 8525 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.56%， 持仓减仓 6281 手至 27.6 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9442 元/吨，较 上一交易日下调 36 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格回调至 8750 元/吨， 现货升水扩至 245 元/吨。多晶硅震荡走弱，主力 2511 收于 48690 元/ 吨，日内跌幅 4.89%，持仓增仓 17059 手至 15.5 万手；多晶硅 N 型复 投硅料价格涨至 49000 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格跌至 49000 元/吨， 现货贴水收至 95 元/吨。工业硅成本随硅煤价格提升，硅厂向贸易商出 货量高而下游购货量偏少，上下空间收窄、延续调整节奏。反内卷完 成对多晶硅价格的基本把控，西南放产下社库和仓单持续增压，产业 出清并未实际推进，多晶硅量价分离格局持续扩大。多晶硅现货跟随 下游市场情绪降温、开始向下调价。短期反内卷相关动态对短期盘面 存在仍存驱动，或引导预期修正下回调幅度。建议谨慎高位布空，工 信部 9 月底前启动节能专项监察 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-08-27 整体商品情绪回落，工业硅盘面回调 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-08-26，工业硅期货盘面回落，主力合约2511开于8680元/吨，最后收于8515元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-250） 元/吨，变化（-2.85）%。截止收盘，2511主力合约持仓281839手，2025-08-26仓单总数为50822手，较前一日变化 -116手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9500（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9700 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8700（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价也暂稳。97硅价格同样持稳。。 SMM统计8月21日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计54.3万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库11.7万吨， 较上周环比持平，社会交割仓库42.6万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.2万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价10500-11000（0）元/吨。SMM报道，当前上下游进入深度 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年8月27日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为8 | 8万吨 . | ， | 环比有所增加1 | 15% . 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为7 | 9万吨 . | 环比减少1 ， | 25% . . | 需求持续低迷 | 多晶 . | | | | | | | 硅库存为24 9万吨 ， . | 处于高位 ， | 硅片亏损 | ， | 电池片亏损 ， ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - On August 25th, industrial silicon showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.06%, and the open interest increased by 9,744 lots to 289,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,478 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rebounded to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 55 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,580 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.73%, and the open interest decreased by 5,596 lots to 139,000 lots. The price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 7,060 yuan/ton [2]. - The cost of industrial silicon increased with the rising price of silicon coal. Silicon plants sold a large amount of products to traders, while downstream purchases were relatively small. The upward and downward space was narrowing, and the adjustment rhythm continued. After the anti-involution efforts, the price of polysilicon was basically under control. With the production resumption in the southwest region, the social inventory and warehouse receipts continued to increase, but the industrial clearance had not been effectively promoted, and the pattern of separation between volume and price of polysilicon continued to expand [2]. - The market is currently highly focused on the photovoltaic industry meeting jointly held by six ministries and commissions. The policy may gradually shift from direct production control to linking with production capacity and technical indicators. The dynamics of the anti-involution meeting have an absolute driving force on the short-term market and may guide the correction of expectations and the callback of the premium. It is recommended to be cautious when shorting at high levels. The implementation details of the energy-saving special supervision to be launched by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology before the end of September may be updated, and continuous attention should be paid to the implementation of production restrictions driven by policies [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - Industrial silicon and polysilicon both showed a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend on August 25th. The cost of industrial silicon increased, and the price adjustment continued. The polysilicon market faced inventory pressure, and the separation between volume and price continued to expand. The market is highly concerned about the photovoltaic industry meeting, and policy dynamics may affect the market [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts increased. The prices of most spot varieties also showed an upward trend, with the price of the lowest deliverable product rising by 50 yuan/ton to 8,800 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowing by 75 yuan/ton to 55 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 2,250 tons. The total social inventory increased by 2,400 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near-month contracts increased. The prices of most spot varieties rose, with the price of N-type polysilicon reclaimed feedstock increasing by 3,500 yuan/ton to 49,000 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained unchanged, and the spot discount widened by 155 yuan/ton to 7,060 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 28,000 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 23,000 tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of DMC, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: The report presents charts on industrial silicon prices, price differences between grades and regions, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9]. - **Downstream Finished Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][13][15]. - **Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [19][21]. - **Cost and Profit**: Charts illustrate the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [24][26][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report On the 21st, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,635 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 3.66%, and the position increasing by 3,710 lots to 284,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,407 yuan/ton, a decrease of 109 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 170 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 51,530 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 1.28%, and the position decreasing by 476 lots to 149,600 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,015 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon production in the southwest continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry reduced production and procurement. The increase in polysilicon production is expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon has slowed down. There is obvious upward pressure, and it will still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coal and coke within the range. Polysilicon shows a strong separation between quantity and price, with a contradiction between cost pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration cannot relieve the pressure on factory inventories. There are rumors that the production quota for the photovoltaic industry may be expanded at a photovoltaic conference, and there are numerous and divergent market price adjustment and production restriction news. Downstream players are highly cautious and there is little trading activity, which limits the continuous upward movement of polysilicon prices. In the short term, it is advisable to mainly short at the upper edge of the range and continuously monitor the dynamics of industrial production restriction news [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,330 yuan/ton on the 20th to 8,595 yuan/ton on the 21st, a rise of 265 yuan/ton. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot decreased by 109 yuan/ton to 9,407 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 170 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt increased by 553 to 51,166, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 1,295 tons to 252,995 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [2][4]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 51,875 yuan/ton on the 20th to 51,530 yuan/ton on the 21st, a drop of 345 yuan/ton. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon materials rose to 49,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon materials remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,015 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipt increased by 90 to 6,460, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 168,000 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [2][4]. - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained at 11,000 yuan/ton, the price of raw rubber remained at 12,300 yuan/ton, the price of 107 glue remained at 11,800 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,500 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices**: The report presents charts on various aspects such as industrial silicon prices of different grades, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: Charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. - **Inventory**: Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon (including futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes), DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22]. - **Cost - Profit**: Charts present the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. 4. Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, an intermediate investment analyst in gold, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines, and is frequently interviewed by multiple media. His team has won awards such as the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Awards of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the Outstanding Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team Title of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon. He focuses on domestic non - ferrous industry research, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients, and has written many in - depth reports [34]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy, tracks the dynamics of the new energy industry chain, and provides timely hot - spot and policy interpretations for clients [35].

000元，可以考虑中长线逢低布局多单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8635 | 245 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 283578 | 3710 -12 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -77137 | 14988 广期所仓单(日,手) | 50613 | | | | 9-10月工业硅价差 | -40 | -10 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9250 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9600 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨 ...

Group 1: Research Views - On August 20, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.89%. The position decreased by 6,737 lots to 279,900 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,407 yuan/ton, down 109 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade dropped to 8,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 440 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2511 closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.52%. The position decreased by 12,109 lots to 150,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon feedstock rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon feedstock dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton. The spot discount narrowed to 7,305 yuan/ton [2]. - Southwest industrial silicon production continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry cut production and reduced procurement. The increase in polysilicon production was expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon slowed down. There was obvious upward pressure, and it would still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coking coal within the range [2]. - There was a strong separation between volume and price in polysilicon. There was a contradiction between cost - based pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration could not relieve the pressure on factory warehouses. The actual production - restriction quotas and progress of the photovoltaic conference were still confidential, and market price - adjustment and production - restriction news was complex and divergent. Downstream players were highly skeptical and trading was scarce, which restricted the continuous upward movement of polysilicon. In the short term, short - selling at the upper edge of the range could be continued, and the industry's production - restriction news should be continuously monitored [2]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 8,640 yuan/ton on August 19 to 8,330 yuan/ton on August 20, a decrease of 310 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 8,610 yuan/ton to 8,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades and regions generally declined. For example, the price of non - oxygenated 553 silicon in East China decreased from 9,200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton [4]. - The current lowest deliverable price decreased from 8,950 yuan/ton to 8,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 340 yuan/ton to 440 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 52,260 yuan/ton to 51,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 52,260 yuan/ton to 51,805 yuan/ton, a decrease of 455 yuan/ton [4]. - Among spot prices, the price of N - type granular silicon feedstock increased significantly, from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price remained unchanged at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from - 7,760 yuan/ton to - 7,305 yuan/ton, a reduction of 455 yuan/ton [4]. Organic Silicon - The price of DMC in the East China market remained unchanged at 11,000 yuan/ton, and the prices of raw rubber and 107 glue also remained unchanged. The price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 11,800 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,500 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Industrial silicon: The daily industrial silicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,625. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 251,700 tons to 252,995 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [4]. - Polysilicon: The daily polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,930. The weekly inventory in the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased from 108,600 tons to 168,000 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The total social inventory of polysilicon decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [4]. Group 3: Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show prices of different grades of industrial silicon, price differences between grades, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. 3.2 Downstream Finished Product Prices - Charts display prices of DMC, organic silicon finished products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. 3.3 Inventory - Charts present industrial silicon futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20][22]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research [34][35].

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The commodity sentiment has cooled down, and the industrial silicon futures market may experience a short - term correction. The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, but it may be affected by the sentiment of other commodities and decline. For polysilicon, the spot price is relatively stable, the futures are at a premium to the spot due to policy expectations, and the market may fluctuate widely in the short - term, suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [1][2][8] Group 3: Industry Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis**: On August 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,615 yuan/ton and closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-1.26%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 286,605 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on August 18 was 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with some individual silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, and Shanghai areas decreasing, while those in the northwest, Xinjiang, and Sichuan regions remained unchanged [1] - **Supply Side**: According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1] - **Demand Side**: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Constrained by weak terminal demand, market transactions were still below expectations, and monomer factories offered discounts to reduce inventory, expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short - term [1] Polysilicon - **Market Analysis**: On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures oscillated widely, opening at 52,275 yuan/ton and closing at 52,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 137,977 lots (135,517 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 580,607 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 24.20 (a month - on - month increase of 3.86%), silicon wafer inventory at 19.80GW (a month - on - month increase of 3.60%), weekly polysilicon output at 29,300 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%), and silicon wafer output at 12.10GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.67%) [4] - **Silicon Wafer**: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece [4] - **Battery Chip**: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery chips was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery chips was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery chips was about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery chips was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery chips was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - slice battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W. On August 18, the bidding for the second batch of photovoltaic component procurement for China Resources Power's 2025 photovoltaic projects opened, with a total procurement capacity of 3GW in three bid sections [6] Group 4: Policy Information - On August 19, multiple departments jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, requiring the photovoltaic industry to strengthen industrial regulation, curb low - price disorderly competition, standardize product quality, and support industry self - regulation to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Neutral - **Inter - delivery**: None - **Inter - variety**: None - **Futures - cash**: None - **Options**: None [2] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range trading, suitable for long - term bottom - fishing - **Inter - delivery**: None - **Inter - variety**: None - **Futures - cash**: None - **Options**: None [8]

Research View - On August 19th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 8,625 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 1.26%, and the position decreased by 11,014 lots to 287,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,615 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 rose back to 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 340 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2511 closing at 52,260 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.53%, and the position increased by 2,459 lots to 138,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 47,000 yuan/ton, while the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material dropped to 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed to 7,670 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon production in the southwest continued to increase, while the organic silicon industry reduced production and procurement. The growth of polysilicon output was expected to be limited, and the inventory depletion of industrial silicon slowed down. There was obvious upward pressure, and it would still follow the fluctuation rhythm of coal and coke within the range [2]. - There was a strong separation between quantity and price in polysilicon. There was a contradiction between cost - based pricing and rising production. Warehouse receipt registration was difficult to relieve the pressure on factory warehouses. Market news about price adjustments and production cuts was complex with many differences, and the positive feedback from downstream was limited. It was difficult to continue to rise sharply, and short - selling at the upper edge of the range could be continued. Attention should be paid to the actual progress of production cuts and whether the inventory pressure could be reduced [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 8,735 yuan/ton on August 18th to 8,640 yuan/ton on August 19th, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 8,720 yuan/ton to 8,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: Most of the prices of different grades and regions remained stable, with only a few varieties showing price changes. For example, the price of 421 silicon (for organic silicon use, East China) decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon (for organic silicon use, Kunming) also decreased by 100 yuan/ton [4]. - Current lowest deliverable price: It remained at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased from 230 yuan/ton to 340 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipt remained at 50,710 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 251,700 tons to 252,995 tons, an increase of 1,295 tons. The factory warehouse inventory increased from 267,300 tons to 268,400 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons. The total social inventory increased by 100 tons to 439,900 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased from 52,280 yuan/ton on August 18th to 52,260 yuan/ton on August 19th, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the near - month contract decreased from 52,280 yuan/ton to 52,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material increased from 44,000 yuan/ton to 46,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,000 yuan/ton; the price of N - type recycled polysilicon material increased from 45,500 yuan/ton to 47,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton; the price of N - type granular silicon material increased from 34,000 yuan/ton to 44,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan/ton. The price of P - type polysilicon dense material and P - type recycled polysilicon material remained unchanged [4]. - Current lowest deliverable price: It remained at 44,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount narrowed from 7,780 yuan/ton to 7,670 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The polysilicon warehouse receipt remained at 5,820 tons. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased from 108,600 tons to 168,000 tons, an increase of 59,000 tons. The factory warehouse inventory decreased from 273,400 tons to 267,900 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 268,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The DMC East China market price decreased from 11,500 yuan/ton to 11,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton; the price of raw rubber decreased from 12,500 yuan/ton to 12,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of 107 glue decreased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 12,000 yuan/ton to 14,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan/ton [4]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost - End Prices - The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10]. Downstream Product Prices - The charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16]. Inventory - The charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22]. Cost and Profit - The charts show the average cost levels, average profit levels, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]. Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a medium - level investment analyst of gold, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than ten years of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won the awards of the 16th and 15th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metal Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [34]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [34]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [35].