1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the silicon market have not significantly improved. The supply side shows a situation of both increases and decreases, remaining generally stable. The demand side is mainly driven by rigid - demand purchases, and the silicon market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The poor demand remains the main factor restricting the upward movement of silicon prices. It is expected that silicon prices will maintain range - bound trading in the short term, with an operating range of 8,300 - 9,300 yuan/ton. [3] - The polysilicon market has weak terminal demand, resulting in light trading. Overall, there is a wait - and - see attitude. The price center maintains high - level range fluctuations in the game between policy - driven positive expectations and weak fundamentals. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Industrial Silicon 3.1.1. Cost and Profit - In the context of anti - involution sentiment and increasing demand, the prices of silicon coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have rebounded. The south - west production area is gradually shifting from the wet season to the dry season, and power costs will gradually rise. [3] - In September, the average profit of industrial silicon 553 nationwide was - 1,029 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 252 yuan/ton; the average profit of industrial silicon 421 was - 665 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 267 yuan/ton. [35] 3.1.2. Supply - As the dry season approaches and production costs rise, most silicon enterprises in the south - west production area are expected to stop production at the end of the month, while a small number are temporarily waiting and watching. At the same time, some silicon enterprises in the north - west regions such as Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia have the intention to increase production, and the current operation is relatively stable. [3] - In the week of October 24, the number of open furnaces of silicon enterprises decreased by 1 compared with the previous week, mainly in Inner Mongolia. [36] 3.1.3. Demand - The polysilicon production in October may still increase slightly, which will increase the demand for industrial silicon. Organic silicon enterprises are mostly in a state of production reduction or maintenance, and it is difficult to increase the demand for industrial silicon. The demand for silicon - aluminum alloy remains stable, and the overall demand for industrial silicon is still weak. [3] 3.1.4. Inventory - Currently, most manufacturers are in normal production, but due to the relatively low price, the willingness to sell is low, and the factory inventory in the south - west region continues to accumulate. [3] 3.1.5. Market Outlook - The silicon market is expected to maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term, and silicon prices will maintain range - bound trading, with an operating range of 8,300 - 9,300 yuan/ton. [3] 3.2. Polysilicon 3.2.1. Supply - Last week, the polysilicon output was 29,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,500 tons. As of October 23, the polysilicon inventory was 25.8 million tons, an increase of 0.5 million tons. The output in September was 13 million tons, slightly lower than that in August, and it is expected to increase slightly in October. [68] 3.2.2. Demand - The terminal installation rush in the first half of the year overdrafted part of the demand in the second half of the year. The domestic bidding projects have decreased, the component side is under great pressure, and it is difficult to have obvious restocking actions. The support from the battery - chip side is insufficient as orders are delivered and overseas demand declines. [3] 3.2.3. Inventory - As of October 16, the total polysilicon inventory was 253,000 tons, and the silicon - wafer inventory was 17.31GW. As of October 17, the registered polysilicon warehouse receipts were 8,610 lots. [3] 3.2.4. Market Outlook - The polysilicon market has light trading, and the overall sentiment is one of waiting and watching. The price center maintains high - level range fluctuations in the game between policy - driven positive expectations and weak fundamentals. [3] 3.3. Organic Silicon 3.3.1. Supply - In September, the operating rate of China's DMC was 71.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.38 percentage points. The DMC output was 210,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,900 tons. Recently, many enterprises are in a state of production reduction or maintenance. [98] 3.3.2. Demand - The previous orders have been basically delivered, new orders are scarce, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large. [105] 3.3.3. Market Outlook - The organic silicon price has declined. As of October 24, the average DMC price was 11,100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.77%; the average 107 - rubber price was 11,500 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month; the average silicone oil price was 12,850 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%. [105] 3.4. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1. Supply - In the week of October 23, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 59%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 percentage points; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.6%, remaining flat month - on - month. [113] 3.4.2. Market Outlook - The price of silicon - aluminum alloy has rebounded. As of October 24, the average ADC12 price was 21,200 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.71%; the average A356 price was 21,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. [116] 3.5. Inventory - As of October 23, the social inventory of industrial silicon (social inventory + delivery warehouse) was 559,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons; the total factory inventory in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 167,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300 tons. As of October 24, the registered warehouse receipts on the exchange were 48,327 lots, equivalent to 241,600 tons of physical goods. [128]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 27th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2601 closing at 8,965 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.17%, and the open interest increasing by 15,179 lots to 202,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon by Baichuan was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 245 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2601 closing at 54,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.82%, and the open interest decreasing by 24,322 lots to 106,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 310 yuan/ton. With production cuts in the southwest and silicon factories holding back supply and raising prices, along with rising costs of silicon coal and electricity prices, the operating center of industrial silicon has shifted upward. Due to the quota arrangement by the industry association, production cuts in silicon wafers after November are basically certain. Although the weekly production schedule of silicon wafers has increased significantly, the current high output is more of a stage of concentrated pre - quota production by enterprises and cannot be confirmed as a signal of actual demand improvement. The last week of October may be the sprint stage for industrial production, and the concentrated inventory - building - driven recovery may not be sustainable. However, as downstream purchases have exceeded upstream output for the first time, there is some short - term support for the bottom of polysilicon. Attention should be paid to industrial production schedules and industry stockpiling dynamics [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,920 yuan/ton on October 24th to 8,965 yuan/ton on the 27th, a rise of 45 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained mostly stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 280 yuan/ton to 245 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 142 to 48,185, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 8,935 tons to 241,635 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 400 tons to 445,500 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 52,305 yuan/ton on October 24th to 54,500 yuan/ton on the 27th, a rise of 2,195 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 2,100 yuan/ton to 310 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 180 to 9,240, and the total social inventory of polysilicon increased by 10,000 tons to 273,000 tons [4] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,200 yuan/ton, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - end Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][11] 3.2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][18][20] 3.2.3 Inventory - Charts present the futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [24][28] 3.2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [32][34][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production schedule is increasing, and it is near the historical average level. The demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8855 - 9075 [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the supply-side production schedule will increase in the short term and is expected to回调 in the medium term. The demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components will decrease in the short term and is expected to recover in the medium term. Overall, the demand shows a continuous recovery trend, and the cost support is stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 53655 - 55345 [7][8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase from the previous week. The demand was 98,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory at 254,000 tons, silicon wafers and battery cells in a loss state, and components profitable. The organic silicon inventory was 55,100 tons, with a production profit of -454 yuan/ton and a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05%, which was flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 75,300 tons, and the import loss was 276 yuan/ton. The cost support in the dry season has increased [6]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the spot price of non-oxygenated silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 335 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 559,000 tons, a 0.53% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 167,700 tons, a 0.17% decrease. The main port inventory was 123,000 tons, a 2.50% increase [6][15]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease from the previous week. The expected production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase from the previous week, but currently in a loss state. The battery cell production was in a loss state, and the component production was profitable. The average cost of N-type polysilicon was 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 15,450 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 27, the price of N-type dense material was 51,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was -1520 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase from the previous week, at a historical high [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.34% to 0.84%. Spot prices of different types of silicon remained unchanged. The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.53%, and the sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.18%. The main port inventory increased by 2.50%. The weekly sample enterprise production increased by 3.36%, and the production and operating rates in different regions showed different changes [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of various contracts increased, with increases ranging from 3.09% to 5.54%. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed different trends. The monthly supply of polysilicon in China decreased by 1.29%, the export volume decreased by 30.00%, the consumption volume increased by 6.62%, and the import volume increased by 30.00%. The component production was profitable, and the domestic and European inventories decreased [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 silicon showed different trends over time [19][20]. - The price and basis of polysilicon also showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.4 Inventory - The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and at ports showed different trends over time [25][26]. - The polysilicon inventory also showed different trends over time [17]. 3.5 Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of industrial silicon sample enterprises in different regions and the overall production showed different trends over time [29][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also showed different trends over time [31]. 3.6 Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Xinjiang's oxygenated 553 silicon showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.7.1 Industrial Silicon - The weekly supply - demand balance of industrial silicon showed different trends over time [38][39]. - The monthly supply - demand balance also showed different trends over time, with different values for actual consumption, export, import, and other items [41][42]. 3.7.2 Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance of polysilicon showed different trends over time, with different values for consumption, export, import, and supply [67][68]. 3.8 Downstream Market Trends 3.8.1 Organic Silicon - The production capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, and production of DMC in organic silicon showed different trends over time [44][45]. - The prices of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 also showed different trends over time [46][47]. - The import, export, and inventory of DMC also showed different trends over time [51][52]. 3.8.2 Aluminum Alloy - The waste aluminum recycling volume, social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, and import - export situation of Chinese unforged aluminum alloy showed different trends over time [54][55]. - The production, inventory, and operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloy ingots also showed different trends over time [57][58]. - The production and sales of automobiles and the export of aluminum alloy wheels also showed different trends over time [59][60]. 3.8.3 Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. - The price, production, inventory, and demand of silicon wafers also showed different trends over time [70][71]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components also showed different trends over time [76][77]. - The prices and import - export volumes of photovoltaic accessories such as photovoltaic coatings, photovoltaic glass, high - purity quartz sand, and soldering tapes showed different trends over time [79][80].

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2025年10月20日-10月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周01合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为8500元/吨,周五收盘价为8920元/吨，周涨幅为4.94%。 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为10.1万吨，环比增加2.02%。本周样本企业产量为49905万吨,环比增加 3.36%;其中云南样本企业开工率为65.28%,环比持平,四川样本企业开工率为30.68%,环比减少2.41%,新疆样 本企业开工率为83.23%,环比增加4.32%,西北样本企业开工率为77%,环比持平。预计本月开工率为69.23%,较 上月开工率61.94%增加7.29个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为9. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On the 23rd, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 8,705 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.41%. The position decreased by 20,359 lots to 76,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon spot was 9,523 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium narrowed to 145 yuan/ton. Polysilicon also fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2511 closed at 50,760 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 1.05%. The position decreased by 3,609 lots to 45,407 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton. The spot premium widened to 1,740 yuan/ton. The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, while the demand side faces the expectation of production control in the crystalline silicon industry. The maintenance of the organic silicon industry and the limited supply of aluminum alloys have comprehensively suppressed the market. Attention should be paid to the resumption time and supplementary volume scale in the north. Considering the resumption rhythm in Xinjiang, short-selling operations should be carried out at high levels for the far-month contracts. The state will regulate the photovoltaic production capacity, and the news of the storage platform has boosted market sentiment. The policy expectation for the far-month contracts still provides support. The concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November means that there is still room for the near-month contracts to trade at a discount. Continuous attention should be paid to the latest developments and the inventory-consumption trend [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 8,485 yuan/ton on the 22nd to 8,705 yuan/ton on the 23rd, an increase of 220 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium narrowed from 235 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 367 to 48,371, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 8,715 to 241,855 tons. The total social inventory remained unchanged at 445,500 tons [3] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 50,310 yuan/ton on the 22nd to 50,760 yuan/ton on the 23rd, an increase of 450 yuan/ton. The spot prices of most grades remained stable, and the spot premium widened from 1,640 yuan/ton to 1,740 yuan/ton. The polysilicon warehouse receipts decreased by 80 to 9,220, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 276,600 tons. The total social inventory remained unchanged at 264,000 tons [3] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of DMC in the East China market decreased from 11,300 yuan/ton to 11,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue remained stable, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased from 11,800 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,700 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Chart Analysis - **Industrial Silicon and Cost Side Prices**: The charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][9] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The charts show the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][14][18] - **Inventory**: The charts show the futures inventory, factory inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][22] - **Cost and Profit**: The charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of polysilicon [26][28][34] 3.3 Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non-ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng is a non-ferrous researcher focusing on aluminum and silicon, and Zhu Xi is a non-ferrous researcher focusing on lithium and nickel [36][37]

2025 年 10 月 24 日 品 研 究 工业硅：关注仓单注册情况 多晶硅：关注现货成交价格 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2511收盘价（元/吨） | 8,705 | 220 | 100 | -95 | | | | Si2511成交量（手） | 172,346 | 66,824 | -37,242 | -325,864 | | | | Si2511持仓量（手） | 76,195 | -20,359 | -55,454 | -214,753 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2511收盘价（元/吨） | 50,760 | 450 | -1,815 | - | | | | PS2511成交量（手） | 86,148 | -14,344 | -179,981 | - | | | | PS2511持仓量（手） | 45,407 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply - The low - electricity - price environment in the southwest region during the wet season is ending, and the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate in the southwest region is expected to slow down and decline. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected, showing a slow - down trend. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the supply - side pressure will gradually ease [4]. - Demand - The operating rate of the organic silicon industry has slowed down, with limited actual demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the recycled aluminum alloy sector remains stable, and the demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook - If the supply - side operating rate enters the downward channel as expected and the downstream polysilicon demand improves substantially, the oversupply situation in the industrial silicon market will ease, and the industry may reach a key node for a price bottom - reversal [4]. Polysilicon - Market Logic - The short - term trading focus is on whether the October photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the "November concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation" expectation game. The market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand" [9][10]. - Risk - The volatility of polysilicon futures is much higher than that of lithium carbonate and industrial silicon, with a relatively high overall risk level. Investors are advised to participate cautiously and control positions and hedge risks [10]. Summary by Directory I. Futures Data Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 220 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.59%. The trading volume is 172346 lots, with a daily increase of 66824 lots and a daily increase rate of 63.33%. The open interest is 76195 lots, with a daily decrease of 20359 lots and a daily decrease rate of 21.09% [12][13]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48371 lots, with a daily decrease of 367 lots and a daily decrease rate of 0.75% [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 450 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.89%. The trading volume is 86148 lots, with a daily decrease of 14344 lots and a daily decrease rate of 14.27%. The open interest is 45407 lots, with a daily decrease of 3609 lots and a daily decrease rate of 7.36% [37]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 9220 lots, with a daily decrease of 80 lots and a daily decrease rate of 0.9% [37]. II. Spot Data Industrial Silicon - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.57%. The price of 421 industrial silicon in Tianjin is 9800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.51% [21]. - The price of industrial silicon powder (553) is 9950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.50% [21]. Polysilicon - The price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material is 53 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.25 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.47% [46]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers (G10 - 182, 130um) is 1.35 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [46]. III. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Industrial Silicon - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48371 lots, with a decrease of 367 lots compared with the previous period and a decrease rate of 0.56% [36]. - The basis of the industrial silicon main contract in East China (553) and (421) shows certain seasonal characteristics [30][31][32]. Polysilicon - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 2000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 450 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 18.37%, and a weekly increase of 1915 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 2252.94% [56]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9300 lots, with a decrease of 80 lots compared with the previous period [57].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term macro - atmosphere improves, fundamentals improve, and rubber prices rebound. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak production season of main producing areas and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space; if not, rubber prices are expected to run around 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. Logs - Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the log supply - demand situation. The 01 contract is relatively strong. New rounds of foreign quotes have increased, and subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [4]. Industrial Silicon - Some industrial silicon spot prices have decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and futures have fluctuated and closed down by 20 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton. In September, exports decreased by 8% month - on - month to 70,200 tons, but still increased year - on - year. In October, industrial silicon supply has increased significantly, with inventory risks, and prices will still be under pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region have reduced production, the impact on output is small. Considering the possible increase in raw material costs, the price center of gravity is expected to move up in the future. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable. On one hand, pay attention to policy implementation and production control; on the other hand, pay attention to whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. Currently, it is mainly in a high - level shock. In November, production reduction in the southwest region during the dry season will relieve the pressure of production growth and support prices. Be vigilant against the risk of inventory accumulation due to insufficient demand [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Driven by the strengthening of coking coal - related varieties, the soda ash futures price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Previously, soda ash has been weak, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing. The supply is in excess. In the medium - term, downstream demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds can be continued [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the strengthening of coking coal - related varieties, the glass futures price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Manufacturers' sales are average, and prices are continuously decreasing. The trading sentiment reflects that the peak season is not prosperous and the supply is in excess. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and capacity clearance is needed to solve the over - supply problem [7]. Summaries by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of SCRWF in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.70%. The basis improved by 100 yuan/ton to - 750 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.34% [1]. - The FOB intermediate price of cup - lump in the international market increased by 0.25 Thai baht/kg to 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a growth rate of 0.50% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.11% [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In August, Thailand's production decreased by 2,000 tons to 460,800 tons, with a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8,500 tons to 189,000 tons, with a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, with a growth rate of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The 2601 contract closed at 831.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter [4]. Supply - As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. - This week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 ships from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5% [4]. Demand - As of October 17, the daily average log delivery volume was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis of Main Contracts - The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 20 yuan/ton to 865 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 365 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8,445 yuan/ton to - 8,485 yuan/ton, with a decline of 21,112.50% [5]. - The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 370 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37% [5]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, with a growth rate of 9.10% [5]. - The production in Xinjiang increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, with a growth rate of 19.78% [5]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 10 tons to 108,500 tons, with a decline of 0.09% [5]. - The social inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 562,000 tons, with a growth rate of 3.12% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of polysilicon increased by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg and then stabilized; the futures price fluctuated and slightly decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, with the futures at a discount [6]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.80% [6]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 52,235 yuan/ton to - 50,310 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2,713.51% [6]. Fundamental Data - This week, the production of silicon wafers increased by 1.52 GW to 14.35 GW, with a growth rate of 11.85% [6]. - The production of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.42% [6]. - The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.53 GW to 17.31 GW, with a growth rate of 3.16% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,140 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.72% [7]. - The 2505 glass contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,236 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.40% [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - The 2505 soda ash contract increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,308 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77% [7]. Supply - The weekly production of soda ash increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, with a growth rate of 3.37% [7]. - The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [7]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 346,900 heavy boxes to 6.2824 million heavy boxes, with a growth rate of 5.84% [7]. - The soda ash factory inventory increased by 27,000 tons to 699,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.05% [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年10月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | . | ， | 环比有所增加2 . | 06% 。 | | | 9万吨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 需求端来看 ， 多晶硅库存为25 3万吨 . | 上周工业硅需求为7 ， | 处于高位 ， | 4万吨 . | 环比减少9 ， 硅片亏损 ， | 75% . . 电池片亏损 ， | 需求持续低迷 组件盈利 | . ； | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, industrial silicon prices fell by 2.94%, while polysilicon prices rose by 6.89%. The industrial silicon futures market declined due to weak downstream demand despite cost - driven production cuts in the dry season. The rumored government regulation on photovoltaic capacity boosted polysilicon prices [4]. - For industrial silicon, on the supply side, production costs are rising in Sichuan and Yunnan during the transition to the dry season, leading to production cuts. Some small factories in Gansu and Ningxia are on standby, and some Xinjiang factories are actively producing. On the demand side, the three major downstream industries (organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy) have a negative overall demand for industrial silicon, and high inventory still pressures price [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply is large with inventory accumulation, and demand is weak in the domestic photovoltaic industry. Although emerging markets show increasing demand, high inventory may pressure prices downward if supply continues to rise [4]. - Operationally, the main contract of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate between 8300 - 8500 with a stop - loss range of 8100 - 8900. The main contract of polysilicon will fluctuate in the short - term, ranging from 48000 - 53000 with a stop - loss range of 46000 - 55000 [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures declined, and polysilicon futures rose. The rumored government regulation on photovoltaic capacity was the key factor for the rise in polysilicon prices [4]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, supply - side production cuts are occurring in some regions due to cost increases, while some are ready to start production. Demand from downstream industries is weak, and high inventory remains a problem. For polysilicon, supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and emerging markets buffer the decline [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should be traded in the range of 8300 - 8500 with a stop - loss of 8100 - 8900. The main contract of polysilicon should be traded in the range of 48000 - 53000 with a stop - loss of 46000 - 55000 [4]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the price of industrial silicon futures and spot both declined, and the basis decreased. As of October 16, 2025, the spot price was 9350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 745 yuan/ton. The production and capacity utilization rate increased. As of October 9, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 8.58 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 59.09% [4][12][19]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the price of polysilicon futures and spot was flat, and the basis weakened. As of October 16, 2025, the spot price was 52.75 yuan/kg, an increase of 200 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 175 yuan/g [16]. 3. Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon remained stable, but the electricity price increased near the dry season, leading to rising costs. From October 10 to 16, 2025, the electricity price in the southwest and northwest was stable at 0.30 yuan/kWh, but it is expected to rise [21][24]. - **Industrial Silicon Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 17, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 50291 lots, a decrease of 483 lots from the previous week [28]. - **Organic Silicon**: This week, the output and operating rate of organic silicon decreased. As of October 16, 2025, the weekly output was 4.56 tons, a decrease of 1.73%, and the operating rate was 69.67%, a decrease of 1.21%. The spot price, cost, and profit increased. The spot price of organic silicon DMC was 11200 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week, the profit was - 540 yuan/ton, an increase of 118 yuan/ton, and the cost was 11740 yuan/ton, an increase of 32 yuan/ton [35][39]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy remained flat, and the inventory continued to decline. As of October 16, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 20900 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the inventory was 7.44 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons from last week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to be negative [41][46]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained flat. As of October 16, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.48 yuan/piece, and the battery cell price was 0.31 yuan/watt, both unchanged from last week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be slightly flat [48][50]. - **Polysilicon Industry**: This week, the cost of polysilicon increased, the profit decreased, and the inventory increased. As of October 16, 2025, the profit was 10980 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40780 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 27.5 tons [59].