作者： 王育武 工业硅： 市场分析 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 2025-12-10，工业硅期货价格偏震荡运行，主力合约2601开于8305元/吨，最后收于8250元/吨，较前一 日结算变化（-185）元/吨，变化（-2.19）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓171757手，2025-12-10仓单 总数为7780手，较前一日变化252手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅回落。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（0）元/吨；421# 硅在9500-9800（0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 根据SMM报道，本周硅煤价格目前仍维持暂稳运行，但近期在原煤及焦煤价格波动下行的情况下，预 计部分地区硅煤价格后续将有松动的趋势。目前新疆无粘结硅煤均价约825元/吨、粘结硅煤价格区间约 1300-1650元/吨，陕西硅煤均价约880元/吨，内蒙古硅煤均价约1260元/吨，甘肃硅混煤均价约930元/ 吨、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall price of industrial silicon continued to decline due to supply factors today, and attention should be paid to the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton [2]. - From the supply side, in Southwest China, the dry season in Yunnan and Sichuan has led to a significant increase in electricity prices, high production costs, and a sharp decline in the operating rate. In Northwest China, production maintains a high - operating state, offsetting the output contraction in the Southwest. However, it is necessary to focus on whether there are fluctuations in the operating rate in the Northwest next week [2]. - From the demand side, the actual demand for industrial silicon from polysilicon, organic silicon, and exports is insufficient, and only the demand from the aluminum alloy field is relatively stable, but it is difficult to change the overall weak demand pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan; the position of the main contract was 171,757 lots, a decrease of 13,514 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 29,059 lots, an increase of 91 lots; the warehouse receipts of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 7,780 lots, an increase of 252 lots; the price difference between the January - February contracts was - 10 yuan, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 950 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 13,625 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 2,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon was 451,660 tons, an increase of 48,860 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 22.28 tons, a decrease of 1,917.57 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 45,073.34 tons, a decrease of 25,159.39 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 6.5 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 16.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 30,923.01 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, unchanged; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.682 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 30,923.01 tons, an increase of 7,427.67 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Beijing Economic - Technological Development Area Management Committee issued the "Several Measures for Promoting High - Quality Green and Low - Carbon Development (Version 2.0)", which mentioned promoting the large - scale development of distributed photovoltaics, with the proportion of photovoltaic installation on factory roofs in new industrial plant projects not less than 50% [2].

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-10 多晶硅受收储平台公司成立影响，盘面再次大幅上涨 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-12-09，工业硅期货价格大幅下跌，主力合约2601开于8600元/吨，最后收于8340元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-300） 元/吨，变化（-3.47）%。截止收盘，2601主力合约持仓185271手，2025-12-09仓单总数为7528手，较前一日变化0 手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格小幅下跌。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9100-9300（-100）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （-50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8900（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8900（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、 天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价回落，97硅价格持稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13500-13700（0）元/吨。有机硅各主要产品上调后，下游情绪偏观望，但 在预售单持续兑现下，企业库存压力不大，预计短期内市场平稳运行运行。 策略 现货价格小幅回落，期货盘面大幅下跌，主要受焦煤等商品大幅下跌以及西北地区减产不及预期影响。目前西南 减产后，供需 ...

工业硅日报 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 点评 8 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8675 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.98%，持仓 减仓 9856 手至 18.7 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9648 元/吨，较上一交易 日下调 35 元/吨。最低交割品#421 价格跌至 8900 元/吨，现货升水扩至 225 元/吨。多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 54545 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.65%，持仓减仓 18624 手至 7.94 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，最低交割品硅料价格持稳在 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收 至 2245 元/吨。工业硅厂进一步减产但不及下游采购跌量，当前成交集中 在套保单或未交付前期订单，工业硅短期难见趋势。光伏产业链自下而上 延续高库存、降排产逻辑，降价情绪未向上蔓延。随着交易所提保限仓且 针对交割品进行扩容，市场多头资金部分撤离，晶硅跳空回调。由于近月 仓单增长较慢，盘面虚实偏高给予当前近月支撑，不建议投资者过度追 空。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUT ...

1 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.1万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为206元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为673.76元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月5日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.2万吨，环比增长2.50%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为28.1万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1190元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.46万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为196元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为738.38元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比增加1.49%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧5 ...

3 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2601 收于 8920 元/吨，日内跌幅 1.6%，持仓增 仓 6584 手至 19.4 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9745 元/吨，较上一交易日 持稳。最低交割品#421 价格涨至 9000 元/吨，现货贴水转至升水 40 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2601 收于 57430 元/吨，日内涨幅 1.89%，持仓 减仓 1558 手至 12.77 万手；多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格涨至 52350 元/吨，现货对主力贴水扩至 7390 元/吨。 供给延续南减北增节奏，难有明显减负，但需求有较大降幅空间，工业硅 重心有成本支撑、无向上驱动。光伏集中式项目收尾，海外需求同步下 滑，组件端大版型订单大幅缩水，产业链需求负反馈效应加剧，硅料厂坚 持减产不降价策略。随着交易所针对多晶硅提保限仓，近月挤仓情绪有所 淡化，但仓单不足情况下正套力量仍在，近月无深跌空间。建议投资者持 续跟踪持仓和仓单情况、谨慎为上。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 12 月 ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 #NAME | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 产业链期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月4日 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 | 21800 | 21710 | 90.0 | 0.41% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 | -50 | - 50 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 | 21790 | 21700 | 90.0 | 0.41% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | -60 | -60 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | 2760 | 2760 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 | 2850 | 2850 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山西)-平均价 | ...

光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 工业硅&多晶硅：量价分离，底部明确 p 2 工业硅&多晶硅：量价分离，底部明确 硅策略月报 2025 年 1 2 月 1 | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据百川，预计11月国内工业硅产量38.52万吨，同比下滑2.5%，环比下滑4.9%。月度开炉数减少47台至257台，开炉率下滑6.91%至32.3%。 | | | 西北地区，新疆大厂月内关停11台矿热炉，甘肃新开1台；西南地区，云南关停21台矿热炉，四川关停25台，重庆关停1台。其他地区，内蒙及 | | | 河南各新开1台。 | | | 2.需求：11月多晶硅产量下滑1.86吨至11.9万吨，同比增长5.3%，环比下滑13.6%。11月DMC产量增加1.1万吨至21.2万吨，同比下滑1.5%，环比 | | | 增长5.5%。多晶硅联合限产限售下，现货普遍报价坚挺，因下游订单收缩，硅片率先减产降价，目前晶硅龙头企业与下游根据限售开启新订单， | | | 少量长单签至年末。因下游对高价较为抵触，大部分仍在协商中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are not strongly driven, and the balance sheet may be less optimistic than previously expected due to lower - than - expected exports and the impact of the "anti - involution" in the silicone industry. The short - term industrial silicon futures price may oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, although the fundamentals have weakened significantly, leading silicon material companies are determined to maintain prices, resulting in a high virtual - to - real ratio of the PS2601 contract. Short - term polysilicon volatility has increased, and investors are advised to operate with caution [3][15][17] Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon closed at 9,130 yuan/ton this week, up 170 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 remained flat at 9,550 yuan/ton, while the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 8,900 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon closed at 56,425 yuan/ton, up 3,065 yuan/ton from last week. The average transaction price of N - type re - feeding material of polysilicon remained flat at 53,200 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. November Centralized Cancellations, Focus on New Warehouse Receipt Registrations - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated this week. In December, the total number of open furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan may drop below 20. The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.2 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.18 million tons. Due to weaker - than - expected organic silicon and export demand, it is difficult to reduce inventory from December to the first quarter of next year. Northern silicon factories conduct hedging when the price rises, and downstream buyers purchase based on rigid demand [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon rose slightly this week. The overall enterprise operating rate was 75.43%, with a weekly output of 49,900 tons, up 1.42% from the previous week, and inventory of 44,700 tons, up 2.05%. Organic silicon monomer factories announced a production cut plan on December 1, but the action is not obvious yet. The market is determined to maintain prices, but demand is weak [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated this week. The prices of dense re - feeding material and granular material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg and 50 - 51 yuan/kg respectively. The low - price range showed signs of loosening. The planned production in December is expected to be 115,000 tons. As of November 30, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 281,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous week. It is difficult for the spot price to rise against the trend [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers dropped significantly this week. The prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers fell to 1.20/1.25/1.55 yuan/piece. The average price of each size has dropped to or below the cash cost. Production cuts are obvious, and the planned production in December is expected to be 45GW. As of November 27, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.5GW, up 0.78GW from the previous week [13] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells continued to decline this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.285, 0.275, and 0.285 yuan/watt respectively. As of November 24, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 12.05GW, up 1.84GW from the previous week. Although there are production cut plans in December, it is difficult to completely improve the supply - demand situation [13] - **Components**: The price of components remained basically stable this week. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects for large customers was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. Some large - scale procurement projects showed demand for high - power components above 700W, with quotes ranging from 0.72 - 0.75 yuan/watt. Demand has declined significantly, and new orders are scarce. The planned production in December may drop significantly, and the domestic planned production is only 37GW. As of November 10, the finished product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 30.2GW, down 0.1GW from the previous week [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - **Industrial Silicon**: The short - term industrial silicon futures price may oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Investors can focus on range - trading opportunities [3][15] - **Polysilicon**: Due to increased short - term volatility, investors are advised to operate with caution [3][17] 4. Hot News - A polysilicon plant with an annual output of 30,000 tons will be built in Morocco. From January to October, the cumulative installed solar power generation capacity in China was 1.14 billion kilowatts, with a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. The first - phase project of Inner Mongolia Xingfa's industrial silicon project was successfully capped [18] 5. Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, and inventory data [20][30][40]