工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 点评 20 日工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2605 收于 8745/吨，日内跌幅 0.4%，持仓减 仓 10615 手至 22.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交 易日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水扩至 105 元/ 吨。多晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 50700 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.91%，持 仓减仓 939 手至 43632 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格涨至 55250 元/ 吨，最低交割品硅料价格 55250 元/吨，现货升水扩至 4550 元/吨。西南 除自备电厂和一体化供应以外全面停炉，新疆检修结束出现复产，中和 供给端减量。下游减产导致工业硅整体上行受挫。多晶硅供需失衡压力 叠加反垄断监管施压，市场交易逻辑由消息炒作转会基本面视角，硅料 强势挺价底气难以延续。近期出口退税取消引发海外订单激增、大幅缓 解组件排产压力，因硅片环节原料积压，增量未能传导至硅料环节，晶 硅端减产规模将进一步扩大。预计短期盘面大涨无力、平稳运行，现货 报价或逐步失去支撑。 请务必阅读正文之 ...

Core Viewpoint - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are experiencing fluctuations in prices due to supply and demand dynamics, with potential impacts from recent policy changes and production adjustments [2][5][12][16]. Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, industrial silicon futures prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract 2605 opening at 8815 CNY/ton and closing at 8745 CNY/ton, a decrease of 35 CNY/ton or 0.4% from the previous day [2]. - The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was reported at 552,000 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [2]. - Current prices for industrial silicon in various regions are stable, with prices for 553 silicon in East China ranging from 9200 to 9300 CNY/ton and 421 silicon between 9500 and 9800 CNY/ton [2][12]. Supply Side Dynamics - A major factory in Xinjiang has announced production cuts, which are expected to significantly reduce output in January, potentially benefiting industrial silicon prices [12]. - The overall supply side is expected to tighten, leading to a shift from inventory accumulation to depletion if production cuts are effective [12]. Demand Side Dynamics - The demand for industrial silicon is currently limited due to reduced production in polysilicon and ongoing self-regulation in the organic silicon sector [12]. - The recent cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic sector may create upward demand expectations for industrial silicon [12]. Price Outlook - Industrial silicon prices are anticipated to remain within a fluctuating range, supported by rising coal prices and the photovoltaic industry chain [13]. - The upward price potential will depend on the recovery of downstream demand and the pace of inventory depletion, while downward pressure is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [13]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 20, 2026, polysilicon futures prices increased, with the main contract 2605 opening at 50650 CNY/ton and closing at 50700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.91% increase from the previous trading day [5]. - Polysilicon inventory has increased to 32.10 thousand tons, a 6.29% rise, while weekly production decreased by 9.66% to 21500 tons [5][14]. Price Stability and Market Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend, influenced by the recent cancellation of export tax rebates, which may stimulate short-term demand but could compromise long-term demand sustainability [16]. - Short-term strategies suggest a focus on new pricing for silicon wafers and production plans for January, while long-term strategies should monitor demand recovery and inventory depletion [16].

工业硅日报 工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2026 年 1 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 点评 19 日工业硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 8845/吨，日内涨幅 1.6%，持仓减 仓 3702 手至 23.5 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 9628 元/吨，较上一交易 日持稳。最低交割品价格持稳在 8850 元/吨，现货升水收至 5 元/吨。多 晶硅震荡偏强，主力 2605 收于 50505 元/吨，日内涨幅 0.63%，持仓减仓 1649 手至 44571 手；百川多晶硅 N 型复投硅料价格降至 55000 元/吨， 最低交割品硅料价格 55000 元/吨，现货升水收至 4495 元/吨。西南除自 备电厂和一体化供应以外全面停炉，新疆检修结束出现复产，中和供给 端减量。下游减产导致工业硅整体上行受挫。多晶硅供需失衡压力叠加 反垄断监管施压，市场交易逻辑由消息炒作转会基本面视角，硅料强势 挺价底气难以延续。近期出口退税取消引发海外订单激增、大幅缓解组 件排产压力，因硅片环节原料积压，增量未能传导至硅料环节，晶硅端 减产规模将进一步扩大。预计短期盘面回涨无力、平稳运行，现货报价 或逐步失去支撑。 请务必阅读 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. The upside potential depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - For polysilicon, in the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium to long term, short on rallies should be the main strategy as its fundamentals are weak, mainly focused on inventory reduction, and it is susceptible to macro - sentiment and policy - side impacts [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8790 yuan/ton and closed at 8730 yuan/ton, a change of 40 yuan/ton (0.46%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 230720, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 14, 2026, was 11140, a change of 12 from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton [1]. - As of January 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.2 tons, a decrease of 0.9% from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13700 - 14000 yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the PV VAT export tax - rebate policy is expected to increase the short - term demand for polysilicon. However, due to high inventory accumulation, the market focuses on inventory reduction, and demand transmission is blocked [2]. - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly. The silicone industry maintained a staggered - peak emission reduction policy, and the downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed a marginal weakening trend. The subsequent operating rate is expected to be stable with a weakening tendency [2]. Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the case of both supply and demand reduction, combined with the transmission effect of rising coal prices and PV industry chain prices, price support is obvious. Short - term range - based operations are recommended [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 15, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward, opening at 48580 yuan/ton and closing at 48670 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.38% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 47798 (48439 in the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 12703 [3]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. N - type material was priced at 51.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg [4]. - Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 30.20 (with a month - on - month change of - 1.30%), silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW (with a month - on - month change of 13.11%), polysilicon weekly production was 23800.00 tons (with a month - on - month change of - 0.80%), and silicon wafer production was 10.52GW (with a month - on - month change of 3.34%) [4]. Strategy - The recent implementation of the policy to cancel the export tax - rebate for the PV industry may stimulate short - term polysilicon export rush, with an expected boost in demand, but it may come at the cost of overdrafting medium - and long - term demand. After polysilicon enterprises were interviewed last week, the expectation of coordinated price support was dashed. The overall market is moving towards cost reduction and efficiency improvement, and downstream production capacity is accelerating to clear. In the short term, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines, and in the medium to long term, short on rallies is the main strategy. The main contract is expected to maintain a weak oscillation, and short - term range - based operations are recommended [6].

Research Views - On January 15, industrial silicon fluctuated strongly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,730 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.46%. The position decreased by 4,469 lots to 231,000 lots. The spot reference price of industrial silicon from Baichuan was 9,628 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 120 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 48,670 yuan/ton, with an intraday decrease of 0.38%. The position decreased by 641 lots to 47,798 lots. The price of N-type recycled silicon material from Baichuan dropped to 54,750 yuan/ton. The price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was 54,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium widened to 6,080 yuan/ton [2]. - Large factories in Xinjiang have entered the maintenance period. Silicon factories are hedging at high prices and actively selling to spot-futures traders. The inventory of manufacturers is gradually shifting to the intermediate links, and the hidden inventory is increasing [2]. - Recently, the cost side has been relatively stable with minor fluctuations. The supply and demand of industrial silicon have both decreased, maintaining a volatile situation. There have been frequent news of anti-involution and industry self-discipline. Due to the pressure of logistics shutdown before the Spring Festival in Xinjiang, the production areas have started pre-festival rush operations, resulting in concentrated warehouse receipt registrations, and the overheated speculative sentiment has cooled down. The premium space above polysilicon is limited [2]. Daily Data Monitoring Industrial Silicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 8,730 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 8,630 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various grades remained stable, with no changes in prices for different regions and grades such as non-oxygenated 553 silicon, oxygenated 553 silicon, and 421 silicon [4]. - The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 25 yuan to 120 yuan/ton [4]. - Industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 1 ton to 11,139 tons. The weekly inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 3,285 tons to 54,440 tons. The inventory at Huangpu Port decreased by 1,000 tons to 58,000 tons, while the inventory at Tianjin Port and Kunming Port remained unchanged. The factory inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 267,850 tons, and the total social inventory remained unchanged at 457,850 tons [4]. Polysilicon - Futures settlement prices: The main contract decreased by 275 yuan/ton to 48,670 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract remained unchanged at 49,300 yuan/ton [4]. - Spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable, including N-type mixed polycrystalline silicon material, N-type recycled polycrystalline silicon material, N-type granular silicon material, and P-type polycrystalline silicon dense material [4]. - The current lowest deliverable product price remained at 54,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 275 yuan to 6,080 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 60 tons to 4,560 tons. The weekly inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange increased by 12,000 tons to 132,900 tons. The factory inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 311,800 tons, and the total social inventory increased by 4,000 tons to 312,000 tons [4]. Organic Silicon - Spot prices: The price of DMC in the East China market and raw rubber remained unchanged at 14,000 yuan/ton and 14,800 yuan/ton respectively. The price of 107 glue remained unchanged at 14,500 yuan/ton, and the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,500 yuan/ton [4]. Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and clean coal prices [6][9][11] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][15][16] Inventory - Charts present the futures inventory of industrial silicon and polysilicon, the weekly industry inventory of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory change of industrial silicon, the weekly inventory of polysilicon, and the weekly inventory of DMC [18][21] Cost and Profit - Charts illustrate the average cost and profit levels of industrial silicon, the weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, the processing industry profit of polysilicon, the cost and profit of DMC, and the cost and profit of aluminum alloy [24][26][28] Team Introduction - The non-ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and achievements in the field of non-ferrous metals research and have received many industry awards [34][35]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The supply side shows a slight decline in production scheduling in January. On the demand side, the production scheduling of polysilicon and silicone in January has decreased significantly. Overall, both supply and demand of industrial silicon have decreased, and with the strengthening expectation of polysilicon production reduction, the support for price decline is weak [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - SI 2601: Closing price is 8630, with a change of -0.12% [1] - SI 2602: Closing price is 8640, with a change of 0.17% [1] - SI 2603: Closing price is 8670, with a change of 0.17% [1] - SI 2604: Closing price is 8695, with a change of 0.12% [1] - SI 2605: Closing price is 8730, with a change of 0.46% [1] Spot Market - In East China: 553 (non - oxygen - passing) price is 9200 with no change; 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9250 with no change; 421 price is 9650 with no change; 441 price is 9400 with no change; 3303 price is 10350 [1] - At Huangpu Port: 553 (hydrogen - passing) price is 9300 with no change; 421 price is 9900 with no change [1] - At Tianjin Port: 553 (oxygen - passing) price is 9200 with no change; 421 price is 9750 with no change [1] - In Kunming: 421 price is 10000 with no change [1] - In Sichuan: 421 price is 9800 with no change [1] - DMC price is 13850; 107 glue price is 14500; polysilicon (compact material, per kg) price is 54.25 with no change; aluminum alloy ADC12 average price is 24000, with a decrease of 200 [1] Spread Data - si2601 - si2602 spread is - 10, with a change of 15 [1] - si2602 - si2603 spread is - 30, with a change of 5 [1] - 421 spot - 553 oxygen - passing spot spread is 400 [1] - Basis (East China 553 spot - main contract) is 520, with a change of 25 [1] Warehouse Data - Total warehouse capacity is 7.95 tons. The total number of yesterday's warehouse receipts is 7192, and today's is 7191, a decrease of 1 [1] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - On November 14, the Online Approval and Supervision Platform for Investment Projects in Jiangxi Province announced the filing information of Jiangxi Xinfang High - tech Yongxiu's annual production project of 137,500 tons of organic silicon new materials [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, cost, and inventory. The supply of industrial silicon decreased last week, while demand increased. The cost support has risen during the dry - season, and the market is expected to fluctuate between 8610 - 8850 for the industrial silicon 2605 contract [6]. - The polysilicon market shows a situation where supply scheduling is continuously decreasing, and demand shows some recovery but may be weak in the future. The cost support remains stable, and the polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47355 - 49985 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 850,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: The demand was 800,000 tons, a 9.59% increase from the previous week. The silicon wafer and battery cell production are in a loss - making state, while the component production is profitable. The silicone inventory is at a low level with a production profit of 2,100 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive operating rate is 64.23%, flat compared to the previous week and lower than the historical average. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - **Cost**: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 9,794.9 yuan/ton, flat compared to the previous week. The cost support has increased during the dry - season [6]. - **Basis**: On January 15th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 470 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 207,500 tons, an increase of 2.07%. The main port inventory was 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position increased [6]. - **Expectation**: The industrial silicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8610 - 8850 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: The polysilicon production last week was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week. The scheduled production in January is expected to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer production last week was 10.52GW, a 3.33% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 262,300 tons, a 13.10% increase. The silicon wafer production is in a loss - making state. The battery cell production is also in a loss - making state, and the component production is profitable. The scheduled production of battery cells in January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease from the previous month, and the expected component production in January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Cost**: The average industry cost of polysilicon N - type material is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,650 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On January 15th, the price of N - type dense material was 54,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 6,080 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 321,000 tons, a 6.29% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 05 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The polysilicon 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 47355 - 49985 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon The report provides detailed price, inventory, production, and other data of industrial silicon contracts, including prices of different specifications of industrial silicon in East China, futures closing prices of each contract, inventory data of different regions, and production and operating rate data of sample enterprises [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon The report presents price, production, inventory, and other data of polysilicon, including prices of different types of polysilicon, futures closing prices of each contract, silicon wafer production and inventory data, battery cell production and inventory data, and component production, inventory, and export data [17]. 3.3 Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The report shows the price - basis and delivery product price difference trends of industrial silicon, as well as the cost trends of sample regions, including the cost differences between 421 and 553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [19][36]. - **Polysilicon**: It presents the disk price trend and the cost trend of the polysilicon industry [22][66]. 3.4 Inventory, Production, and Capacity Utilization - **Industrial Silicon**: It shows the inventory situation of industrial silicon, including the inventory of delivery warehouses and ports, SMM sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipt volume. It also presents the production and capacity utilization trends, including the weekly production trend of SMM sample enterprises, the monthly production by specification, and the operating rate trend [25][28]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the inventory, production, and operating rate trends of polysilicon, including the total inventory of SMM polysilicon, monthly production, monthly operating rate, and monthly demand [66]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: It provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon, including production, import, export, consumption, and balance data [40][43]. - **Polysilicon**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon, including supply, import, export, consumption, and balance data [68]. 3.6 Downstream Market 3.6.1 Organic Silicon - **DMC**: It shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, including the daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trend, weekly production trend, and price trend [46][52]. - **Downstream Products**: It presents the price trends of downstream products of organic silicon, such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 [48]. 3.6.2 Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Supply**: It shows the price and supply situation of aluminum alloy, including the waste aluminum recycling volume, waste aluminum social inventory, aluminum scrap import volume, and the price trend of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 [55]. - **Inventory and Production**: It presents the inventory and production trends of aluminum alloy, including the monthly production of primary aluminum - based and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, the weekly operating rate of primary and recycled aluminum alloys, and the social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots [58]. - **Demand**: It shows the demand situation of aluminum alloy in the automotive and wheel hub industries, including the monthly production and sales of automobiles and the export trend of aluminum alloy wheel hubs [60]. 3.6.3 Polysilicon - **Silicon Wafer**: It shows the price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of silicon wafers, including the price trend of different types of silicon wafers, weekly production, weekly inventory, monthly demand, and net export trends [71][74]. - **Battery Cell**: It presents the price, production, inventory, and export trends of battery cells, including the price trend of single - crystal P/N type battery cells, battery cell production scheduling and actual production, photovoltaic battery export factory weekly inventory, operating rate, and export volume [77]. - **Photovoltaic Component**: It shows the price, production, inventory, and export trends of photovoltaic components, including the price trend of different types of components, domestic and European inventory, monthly production, and export volume [80]. - **Photovoltaic Accessories**: It presents the price, production, import - export trends of photovoltaic accessories, including the price trend of photovoltaic coatings, import - export volume of photovoltaic adhesive films, monthly production and export volume of photovoltaic glass, price trend of high - purity quartz sand, and import - export volume of welding strips [83]. - **Component Cost - Profit**: It shows the cost - profit trends of components, including the silicon material cost, silicon wafer cost - profit, battery cell cost - profit, and component cost - profit trends of 210mm double - sided double - glass components [86]. - **Photovoltaic Grid - Connected Power Generation**: It presents the trends of photovoltaic grid - connected power generation, including the national new power generation installed capacity, power generation composition and total volume, photovoltaic power station new grid - connected capacity, and solar monthly power generation [88].

Market Overview - As of January 14, the top 20 futures companies for industrial silicon had a long position of 221,600 contracts and a short position of 248,000 contracts, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.89. The net position increased by 12,600 contracts compared to the previous day, totaling -26,400 contracts [1] - On January 15, the spot price for industrial silicon (5530) remained stable at 9,500 CNY/ton, with no change in price over the past week or month, indicating a 0.00% fluctuation [1] - December's industrial silicon production remained stable month-on-month, with the number of furnaces in the Southwest region dropping to a low for the same period, indicating limited room for further contraction [1] Institutional Insights - Donghai Futures suggests that the market-oriented clearance policy is bearish for polysilicon, which in turn may lead to a decline in industrial silicon prices. The market is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with attention on cost support levels [2] - Guangzhou Futures notes that the recent rebound in prices is primarily supported by coal price costs, alongside weak operating rates in the North and supply contraction expectations from marginal reductions in Sichuan and Yunnan. However, the core supply-demand balance remains weak, with reduced consumption of silicon due to lower production of polysilicon and organosilicon. Social inventory remains high, and pre-holiday stocking sentiment is low, leading to a focus on demand-based transactions. The current supply is slightly loose, and the demand side lacks sustained incremental growth, suggesting a range-bound market. Future attention should be on pre-holiday stocking rhythms and changes in production in the Northwest region, with the main contract Si2605 expected to trade within the range of 8,500 to 8,900 CNY [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to remain range - bound. The price is clearly supported by the rising coal and photovoltaic industry chain prices under the situation of double - reduction in supply and demand. The upside depends on downstream demand recovery and inventory clearance, while the downside is limited by cost and production cut expectations [3] - The decline rate of polysilicon is gradually slowing down. In the short term, the cancellation of the export tax - rebate policy may boost demand, but it may overdraw medium - and long - term demand. The overall market is moving towards cost - reduction and efficiency - enhancement, and downstream production capacity is accelerating to clear out. The fundamentals are still weak, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term and short on rallies in the medium and long term [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price rose slightly. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,635 yuan/ton and closed at 8,755 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous day's settlement, a 0.34% change. The position of the main contract 2605 was 235,089 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on January 13, 2026 was 11,128 lots, a change of 240 lots from the previous day [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices were basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable [1] - SMM statistics showed that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on January 8 was 552,000 tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous week [1] Consumption - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 13,700 - 14,000 yuan/ton. The recent cancellation of the photovoltaic VAT export tax - rebate policy is expected to increase short - term polysilicon demand, and strong polysilicon exports are expected to boost the demand side of industrial silicon, with short - term consumption having an upward space [2] - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises decreased slightly, and the silicone industry maintained a staggered - peak emission reduction policy. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate is expected to be mainly stable and weak. Currently, the supply is still slightly in excess, the inventory is still at a high level, the market trading is light, and the fundamentals remain weak [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On January 14, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and declined. It opened at 49,960 yuan/ton and closed at 48,945 yuan/ton, a - 1.46% change from the previous trading day's closing price. The position of the main contract reached 48,439 lots (48,844 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 20,942 lots [3] - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 51.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 58.50 yuan/kg [4] - SMM statistics showed that polysilicon manufacturers' inventories increased, and silicon wafer inventories increased. The latest statistics showed that polysilicon inventory was 302,000 tons, a - 1.30% change from the previous period, silicon wafer inventory was 26.23GW, a 13.11% change from the previous period, polysilicon weekly output was 23,800 tons, a - 0.80% change from the previous period, and silicon wafer output was 10.52GW, a 3.34% change from the previous period [4] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.39 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.69 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.49 yuan/piece [4] - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.40 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.40 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.40 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5] - In terms of components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.72 - 0.72 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.74 - 0.75 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to maintain a weak shock - No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the inventory has decreased. The overall supply has declined marginally as some northwest factories have reduced production. The downstream demand for industrial silicon remains weak, with polysilicon planning to cut production and silicone factories likely to reduce their loads in January, leading to a decrease in demand for industrial silicon. The market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited upside potential for the futures price. However, short - term sentiment factors such as "component rush for exports" and a warming macro - environment may support the price floor. It is recommended to short at high prices, with a suggested short - selling range of 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton and a stop - profit range of 8300 - 8500 yuan/ton. The expected futures price range next week is 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton [7][8]. - For polysilicon, the futures price has adjusted downward. The price increase of silicon materials has gradually been transmitted to downstream sectors, providing short - term support for the spot price of silicon materials. The supply is weak while the demand is strong. The supply has shrunk due to the dry season and high upstream inventory, leading to production cut expectations. The demand is expected to be boosted by the component rush for exports in the first quarter. Considering the full - cost line of 45,000 yuan/ton, the futures price is expected to remain above this level. However, the market liquidity has been decreasing since late December, and it is not recommended to participate in futures trading. The expected futures price range next week is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures price has dropped from its high, partly due to the decline in polysilicon futures. The Friday futures price closed at 8715 yuan/ton. The spot price has remained stable, with the Xinjiang 99 - grade silicon quoted at 8700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous period) and the Inner Mongolia 99 - grade silicon at 8950 yuan/ton (also unchanged) [1]. - Polysilicon: The futures price has fallen, and the pre - holiday futures price closed at 57,920 yuan/ton. The upstream spot price has remained firm, with downstream rigid demand for restocking and some high - price orders [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: The weekly industry inventory has decreased slightly. The Xinjiang region has reduced its production, while the southwest region's production has remained stable. The total weekly production has decreased marginally. The southwest region has entered the dry season, with a calculated cost of 10,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures price). The local production has dropped to a very low level. Some factories in Xinjiang have also reduced production, resulting in a marginal decrease in short - term supply. The SMM statistics show that the social inventory has decreased by 0.5 million tons, the factory inventory has increased by 90,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory has decreased by 0.41 million tons. Future attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [2]. - Demand: The downstream rigid demand is weak. In the polysilicon sector, the weekly production schedule has decreased, and there are plans to shut down a large silicon - material factory in Inner Mongolia from February to May to relieve inventory pressure, which may lead to a marginal decrease in demand for industrial silicon. In the silicone sector, the weekly production has decreased, and there are plans for further production cuts to support prices. However, due to the off - season demand and high inventory, the price - support logic is difficult to implement. The export tax rebate for silicone will be cancelled after April 1st, and the pre - emptive export rush may bring some consumption growth. In the aluminum alloy sector, aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers have stocked up reasonably, with higher purchasing enthusiasm at low prices and a wait - and - see attitude at other times. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [3]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Supply: The short - term weekly production has decreased month - on - month. In January 2026, silicon - material manufacturers are expected to cut production passively to relieve high - inventory pressure. The SMM statistics show that the inventory of silicon - material manufacturers has decreased month - on - month. After the market sentiment adjustment this week, downstream purchasing has been relatively cautious. The current manufacturer inventory is around 30 million tons, and the industry inventory, including downstream raw - material inventory, is around 50 million tons, approaching 5 - 6 months of consumption. The overall average full cost is estimated to be in the range of 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton, assuming no consideration of increased costs due to production cut depreciation and state reserves [4]. - Demand: The silicon - wafer production schedule has increased week - on - week. In January, the silicon - wafer inventory is relatively reasonable, and the price increase has been transmitted to downstream sectors, supporting silicon - wafer enterprises to increase production. The component rush for exports in the first quarter is expected to boost terminal demand due to the cancellation of the export tax rebate for components starting from April. Future attention should be paid to the price increase of components [6]. 3.3 Futures Research - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to short industrial silicon at high prices. The expected futures price range for industrial silicon next week is 8500 - 9300 yuan/ton, and for polysilicon, it is 45,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Inter - period trading: No recommendations are provided [9]. - Hedging: It is recommended that upstream industrial silicon factories conduct short - selling hedging [9]. 3.4 Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from December 19, 2025, to January 9, 2026, with prices remaining relatively stable during this period [11]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Supply - Side (Smelting and Raw Materials) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the domestic industrial silicon social inventory and factory inventory trends, monthly production, monthly production seasonality, monthly production capacity utilization rate, monthly production capacity utilization rate seasonality, profit calculations for different regions and grades of industrial silicon, monthly export and import volumes of industrial silicon, trade - link inventory and inventory - to - sales ratio, prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, electrodes, and electricity prices in major production areas [12][13][15][19]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side (Downstream Polysilicon) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the spot price of polysilicon, domestic polysilicon production and year - on - year growth, polysilicon industry production capacity utilization rate, polysilicon import and export volumes, polysilicon industry profit calculation, single - crystal silicon wafer export volume and year - on - year growth, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, and domestic new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [23][24]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side (Downstream Silicone) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the average price trend of domestic DMC, DMC industry monthly production capacity utilization rate, DMC production and monthly year - on - year growth, DMC factory inventory seasonality, primary - form polysiloxane export volume and year - on - year growth, and DMC industry profit calculation [24][25]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Consumption - Side (Downstream Aluminum Alloy) - The report provides multiple graphs, including the seasonal price chart of recycled aluminum ADC12, recycled aluminum industry monthly production capacity utilization rate, recycled aluminum alloy profit calculation, and monthly automobile sales [29][31][34].