二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 05 月 11 日 工业硅：西南复产，基本面弱势 多晶硅：关注下周仓单故事 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存去库，高库存压力反噬价格；多晶硅上游库存有所去库 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅去库。据百川统计，本周西南地区如四川硅厂继续复产，甘肃、宁夏、 云南地区硅厂减产，整体周度产量边际递减。开工角度来看，新疆地区硅厂本周仍未出现大规模减产，表明 当地硅厂对利润挤压的耐受度偏高，亦有多数工厂签订了后点价模式，对盘面上方构成较大掣肘。西南地 区，进入平水、丰水期当地硅厂具备提开工动能，一体化硅厂亦有新增开工情形，而就非一体化硅厂来看， 虽然盘面价格并无法给到西南硅厂复产的理论现金利润，但实际上硅厂复产仍会结合库存、订单、工人维系 等综合考量，且 2025 年一体化产能布局进一步挤压西南硅厂的生存空间，多重角度来看西南硅厂仍具备复 产的强驱动。仓单视角，盘面下跌期现仓单具备出货性价比，使得本周期货仓单环比上周持续减少，本周仓 单去库共 0.94 万吨。从库存来看，SMM 统计本周社会库存去化，厂库库存累库，整体行业库存有所去化。 工业硅需求端，下游仍按需采购。多晶硅视角，硅粉招标 ...

以下文章来源于真叫卢俊 ，作者真叫卢俊团队 真叫卢俊 . 认认真真聊地产，实实在在谈买房。 本文来自微信公众号： 真叫卢俊 （ID：zhenjiaolujun0426） ，作者：余奔雷，题图来自：AI生成 世上唯一不变的就是变化，而年初到现在，国内一个最大的变局，就是一二线城市之间的疯狂博弈。 从杭州的超新星式爆发，到提问后迅速做出反应的南京，再到拼命抢人抢产业的深圳...... 可见随着这波二线城市的强势崛起，一线的宝座似乎也不那么稳当了。 之前我们写过杭州已经接近一线水平，但除了杭州，其实有更多强二线城市逐渐露头，评论区更是引发了一波讨论。 而当我们用脚走过这些二线城市，更能深刻感受到它们中有些真的不甘平庸，正努力站到台前聚光灯下。 不夸张地说，此时此刻的它们，也许未来某一天就是彼时彼刻的北上广们。 一、成都：全国楼市一次绝对的异 军突起 这两年我们走过最多的城市就是成都。 某种程度上，成都确实已经是国内楼市第一城了，数据就是最好证明。 3年前商品房成交量取代武汉，从此成为全国第一。去年一二手成交双双拿下全国销冠，超过了上海和北京。而今年一季度月均成交2.9万套，超过了 上海小阳春的2.3万。 无论对比一 ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 04 月 27 日 工业硅：下游减产，现货弱势，盘面亦偏弱 多晶硅：现货价格下跌，盘面继续回落 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面震荡偏弱，现货价格下跌；多晶硅盘面亦弱势，现货价格下跌 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面受部分工厂减产消息等影响有所走强，但下游硅粉招标价持续降低， 后续盘面亦有所回落，周五收于 8780 元/吨。现货市场价格下跌，具体而言，SMM 统计天津通氧 Si5530 报 价 9400 元/吨（环比-300），天津 99 硅报价 9350 元/吨(环比-250)。 多晶硅运行情况：本周多晶硅盘面受部分多晶硅工厂减产、延后复产等消息刺激有所走强，但周五现货 价格开始下跌，盘面再次回落，周五收于 38390 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看，上游工厂现货报价有所下降， 但并未出现大规模成交，关注下个月的月初签单情况。 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存小幅去库，关注后续库存变动；多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅去库。据百川统计，本周内蒙、辽宁地区开工回落。开工 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue but a significant decline in net profit, indicating operational pressure in a complex market environment [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of 26.692 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.41% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.740 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 33.64% [1][4]. - The non-recurring net profit was 1.540 billion yuan, down 29.58% year-on-year, highlighting challenges in cost control and price fluctuations [1][4]. Group 2: Market Position and Production Capacity - The company maintains a dual leading position in the industrial silicon and organic silicon sectors, with daily production of industrial silicon exceeding 70 tons and energy consumption per ton reduced to below 10,000 kWh [4]. - The production capacity of organic silicon has been enhanced to 330-350 tons per day through technological upgrades, with steam consumption reduced by 30% [4]. Group 3: Research and Development - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, achieving breakthroughs in silicon carbide technology, with a 95% yield rate for 6-inch silicon carbide substrates and a stable 98% yield for epitaxy [5]. - New products such as functional silicone oil and high-performance liquid silicone rubber have been developed, reinforcing the company's leading position in silicon-based new materials [6]. Group 4: Sustainability and Digital Transformation - The company has optimized resource allocation processes to enhance product quality and reduce production costs, while also advancing a comprehensive digital transformation strategy [7]. - Efforts to align with national "dual carbon" strategies include upgrading production processes and energy efficiency, embedding sustainable development into corporate governance [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to continue low-level consolidation in the short term, with an operating range of 9,000 - 10,500 yuan/ton, and follow-up attention should be paid to the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] - The price of polysilicon may decline in the future, and the previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices. The inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Summary According to Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,950 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon also remained flat at 10,900 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.53% to 9,310 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, furnace starts in Xinjiang decreased, while there were new furnace starts in Sichuan. It is expected that some silicon enterprises in Yunnan will have new capacity put into operation in April, showing a pattern of increasing supply in the south and decreasing in the north. On the demand side, there is no obvious improvement, and the high inventory pressure in the silicon market remains [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Due to the reduction in supply after the production cut of some large northern factories, but the lack of improvement in demand, the short - term silicon price is expected to continue low - level consolidation, and the follow - up should focus on the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: N - type dense material remained flat at 40 yuan/kg compared to the previous day; polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 36 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 0.68% to 41,550 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - cut situation, and it is expected that the output in April will still be within 100,000 tons. On the demand side, as the 430 rush - installation node approaches, the demand for distributed component orders has cooled down, but the demand for centralized orders has started to increase [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Considering that the self - disciplined production cut and the rush - installation tide still support the polysilicon price, but the follow - up demand may weaken, the price center may move down. Previous long positions can be gradually closed at high prices, and the inter - delivery strategy can consider the 06 - 11 positive spread and 11 - 12 negative spread [1] Other Products - **DMC**: The domestic DMC market has poor trading recently. Due to high inventory, the mainstream trading center of DMC has moved down to 13,500 yuan/ton, and the price is expected to decline slightly in the future [1] - **Photovoltaic Cells**: Photovoltaic cell prices have started to decline, with different sizes showing different market trends. The price of Topcon210RN batteries has dropped significantly, with a decline of over 12% [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: Weak and volatile [1] - Polysilicon: Volatile and bullish [1] Core Views of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have both positive and negative news, and it remains in a bottom - oscillating state. The price of industrial silicon has hit a new low, and it is currently in a stage of long - short game. The price of polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is in a state of bullish oscillation [1][2][3][4] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see; for polysilicon, it is recommended to buy on dips [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Supply Side - The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 silicon is 10,100 - 10,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. In February, industrial silicon production decreased to 289,500 tons, a reduction of 10,000 tons from January. The production in Sichuan and Yunnan has dropped to historical lows, with Sichuan's production at only 3,000 tons. Some production capacities in the northwest region have resumed production recently, and the supply pressure of industrial silicon has become prominent again. The production cost in the southwest region has reached the annual high due to the high electricity cost during the dry season, but the cost support for silicon prices is limited [2] - The inventory pressure is large. This week's inventory decreased by 0.5 tons compared with last week, and the current social inventory is reported at 594,000 tons [2] Downstream Demand Side - In the polysilicon sector, production continued to decline in February, reaching about 90,000 tons. With the expectation of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic industry, polysilicon production has been continuously decreasing. However, with better downstream production scheduling recently, the probability of large - scale production cuts is small, and the demand for industrial silicon has stabilized marginally [2] - In the organic silicon DMC sector, some manufacturers plan to start the production - cut mode, and the production is expected to continue to decline, leading to a decrease in the demand for industrial silicon [2] - In the alloy silicon sector, the price has been boosted, but the consumption is small and cannot support the market, so the demand for industrial silicon remains stable [2] Transaction Logic - Industrial silicon production is still at a high level. The production of downstream polysilicon has stabilized, and the consumption of industrial silicon has also stabilized. The consumption of industrial silicon by organic silicon has weakened, and the consumption by silicon - aluminum alloy has remained stable. High inventory suppresses the price of industrial silicon. Although the photovoltaic industry has an improvement expectation, it is currently in a long - short game stage [4] Polysilicon Supply Side - The spot price of polysilicon remains stable. The production of polysilicon in February decreased to 90,000 tons, which strongly supports the price. Under the premise of industry self - discipline, each polysilicon factory produces according to the quota, and the production will not fluctuate significantly [3] Downstream Demand Side - The production of downstream silicon wafers shows signs of stabilization and recovery, and the price has increased slightly. The inventory of silicon wafers is in the destocking cycle, and the inventory is being removed quickly, which supports the price. The production scheduling of downstream battery cells and components in April is good, which also supports the polysilicon market [3] Transaction Logic - The production of polysilicon has stabilized at the bottom, the downstream demand has an improvement expectation, and the inventory is still in the destocking cycle. In the short term, there is insufficient driving force for polysilicon to rise, and it shows a bullish oscillation [4]