国内证券市场主要指数表现分化，其中创业板指涨幅最大为1.86%。申万一级行业中，有色金属涨幅最 大为5.35%。 本周结构性行情延续，能源设备、贵金属等板块表现突出。国内经济景气总体平稳，11 月制造业 PMI 小幅回升至 49.2%，产需两端改善、小微企业景气显著回升，高技术制造业持续扩张。政策端，国务院 聚焦新型城镇化与城乡融合，释放内需潜力；证监会明确资本市场改革方向，着力提升制度包容性、吸 引长期资金。国际方面，美国 ADP 就业数据不及预期，市场对美联储 12 月降息预期升温。展望未来， 国内新型城镇化推进与资本市场改革深化将形成合力，为经济和市场提供支撑，高技术制造、新型城镇 相关领域有望受益。美联储降息预期落地或改善全球流动性环境，但需关注内外需修复节奏及国际市场 波动风险。 投资建议 1）科技：发展新质生产力是当前政策对于国内经济方向的重要指引，流动性宽松背景下，科创与创新 类公司有望超额收益。建议关注：人工智能、半导体芯片、机器人、低空经济、深海科技等。2）非银 金融：券商受益于慢牛格局，保险长期资产端将受益于资本回报见底回升。3）有色金属：（1）铜：供 需格局持续偏紧，铜价有望延续上行趋势 ...

美银证券表示，与中国重汽举行了电话会议，管理层方面称，中国重汽全年销量目标30万辆进展顺利。 公司正稳步推进2025年销售与利润率目标，并表示2025-2027年间将维持审慎资本支出计划，每年不超 过20亿元人民币，重点投入海外生产基地建设(如哈萨克、巴西、印尼)。该行仍看好该公司长期出口扩 张的业务故事及稳固的本地市场地位。东方证券认为，受益于以旧换新政策全面落地、新能源重卡渗透 率提升、出口保持较高景气以及去年同期低基数等因素影响，3季度重卡行业销量同比快速增长，公司 作为重卡行业龙头企业受益明显。 消息面上，中信建投（601066）研报指出，近两年重卡行业销量回升，主因报废更新补贴推动国三、国 四等老旧车型淘汰并刺激内需，燃气车&新能源等结构性增量拉动，以及出口超预期增长。展望2026 年，国四+国五的自然报废更新需求将支撑70万级的内销规模，叠加非俄地区拉动出口增长，总销量将 保持在110万左右。出口可触及市场空间近70万，仍有进一步放量潜力，因此看好行业周期上行的中期 趋势。 中国重汽（000951）(03808)涨超3%，截至发稿，涨3.34%，报30.28港元，成交1.28亿港元。 ...

11月的重卡市场热度依旧不减，"双十一"也成为各大品牌集中发力、拓展市场的舞台。从一汽解放抖音直播狂揽6000辆订单，到中国 重汽百城接力创下千辆佳绩；从奇瑞商用车拿下3000辆订单，到零一汽车"惊蛰雷震子"上市3小时斩单1068辆；从东风商用车、福田 汽车、徐工汽车在国内外市场接连斩获大单，到重整后加速发展的上汽红岩也成功实现批量交付，足见年底重卡市场的火热。 一汽解放："双十一"直播狂揽6000辆订单 11月不仅是物流高峰，更是一汽解放的营销创新窗口。借助"双十一"契机，一汽解放与一汽租赁联合在抖音平台打造行业首个"双十一 亿万补贴"直播盛典。以J7智能工厂为背景，5小时直播集中展示了一汽解放24款主力车型，叠加"三重补贴+专属金融礼遇"，当晚团购 订单突破6000辆，累计场观超27.6万人，峰值在线人数1.8万人，开创了中国商用车行业的营销新模式——商用车制造企业与金融服务 企业首次在直播营销中深度融合，为行业开辟了一条直达用户的"快车道"。 11月中旬，一汽解放印尼代理PTGayaMakmurMobil带领147人客户团到访长春交流。此次访问期间，双方共签署350余辆意向订单， 为后续合作注入新的动力 ...

11月重卡破10万，同比增幅近五成，以"八连涨"收官淡季。 11月重卡市场呈现"同比高增、环比微降"特征。据最新数据获悉，2025年11月，国内重卡市场销量预计达10.1万辆（批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环 比下降5%，同比增长47%，实现"八连涨"且平均增速43%；2025年1-11月，国内重卡累计销量预计103万辆，同比增长26%，全年冲刺110万辆在即。 请看最新数据分析。 11月：五家企业销量破万辆 两家企业增幅达1.5倍 2025年11月，重卡市场在传统淡季交出了一份超出预期的成绩单——10.1万辆销量同比增长47%，延续了自4月起的"八连涨"态势。这份亮眼数据背后，是 政策红利、出口增长（11月中国重卡出口批发销量预计增长20%）与新能源渗透率提升的多重支撑，也为即将到来的2026年行业转型埋下伏笔。 从终端需求来看，11月，国内终端销量同环比双增——环比预计增长13%，同比预计增长近40%。其中，燃气车终端销量同比增速预计超75%，国内渗透 率在25%左右。在细分市场中，受以旧换新政策截止与2026年新能源购置税减免退坡影响，11月新能源重卡终端销量预计2.6万辆，同比增长1.6倍，单月 渗透 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the midstream and upstream PPI price increase chain [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the industrial sectors such as automotive manufacturing, oil and coal extraction and processing, black metal mining, and electricity and heat supply are showing improved performance in terms of revenue, industrial added value, and profit growth [2][3] - It emphasizes the potential for recovery in sectors like pharmaceuticals, food and beverage, textiles, and non-metallic materials, which are currently facing challenges but may present opportunities for supply clearing [2][3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industrial Sector Monthly Tracking - As of October 2025, revenue and profit growth rates are improving in midstream manufacturing and upstream resource sectors, while sectors like pharmaceuticals and consumer goods are still in a low growth phase [2][3] - Inventory and fixed asset growth rates are low, indicating ongoing supply chain adjustments in industries such as pharmaceuticals and non-metallic materials [2][3] Economic Climate - The manufacturing PMI for November 2025 shows a slight recovery at 49.2%, with improved order and export order conditions, although service sector activities have returned to contraction [2][3] High-Frequency Indicators - In the automotive sector, retail sales of passenger vehicles decreased by 0.8% year-on-year in October 2025, while new energy vehicle sales grew by 7.3% [2][3] - The home appliance sector is facing high base pressure, with negative growth expected in domestic production due to previous demand surges and high base effects from 2024 [2][3] - The food and beverage sector is experiencing price stabilization, with white liquor and pork prices bottoming out, while dairy and meat prices are recovering [2][3] Advanced Manufacturing - The report notes that prices for new energy products remain high, with significant demand for lithium batteries and engineering machinery [3] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has surged over 200% in the past year, indicating a tight supply-demand balance that may persist into 2026 [3] Financial Sector - The banking sector shows a slight increase in non-performing loan rates, but overall risk remains manageable, with net interest margins stabilizing [3] - Insurance premium income growth has slowed, reflecting a shift towards more flexible insurance products [3] Real Estate Chain - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in both sales and prices, with significant weakness in investment and construction activities [3] - Cement prices are fluctuating at low levels, while prices for glass and other building materials are stabilizing [3] Commodity Prices - Oil prices are fluctuating around $60 per barrel, while coal prices have rebounded above 800 yuan due to supply constraints and winter storage needs [3] - The report indicates a general upward trend in metal prices, driven by macroeconomic factors and expectations of interest rate cuts [3]

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck industry in China has shown significant growth, with November 2025 sales exceeding 100,000 units, marking a nearly 50% year-on-year increase, driven largely by policy incentives and a strong demand for both traditional and electric heavy trucks [1][4][16]. Sales Performance - In November 2025, approximately 101,000 heavy trucks were sold, a 47% increase from 68,500 units in the same month last year, despite a 5% month-on-month decline due to inventory adjustments [1][4]. - Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, total heavy truck sales reached 1.03 million units, reflecting a 26% year-on-year growth, with the target of 1.1 million units within reach [1][4]. Market Dynamics - The continuous growth in the heavy truck market since April 2025 is attributed to the "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy, which has significantly boosted sales [4][16]. - Despite some regions suspending subsidies in the fourth quarter due to funding issues, the overall market remains robust as the policy deadline approaches [4]. Export Trends - Heavy truck exports from China are also on the rise, with November 2025 exports expected to increase by nearly 20% year-on-year, leading to an anticipated total of over 320,000 units exported for the year [4]. End-user Demand - The end-user demand for heavy trucks has been strong, with November 2025 domestic sales projected to grow nearly 40% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month, particularly for natural gas trucks, which are expected to see a 75% increase in sales [6]. - New energy heavy trucks are also experiencing record sales, with November 2025 sales estimated at 26,000 units, a 160% increase year-on-year, and a market penetration rate exceeding 30% [6]. Company Performance - Major players in the heavy truck market include: - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (Sinotruk) sold over 25,000 units in November, a 23% increase year-on-year, maintaining a market share of approximately 27% [10]. - FAW Jiefang's sales reached nearly 23,000 units, up 77% year-on-year, with a market share of about 19.3% [10]. - Dongfeng Motor Corporation sold around 16,000 units, a 65% increase year-on-year, holding a market share of approximately 15.8% [12]. - North Benz (Beiqi Foton) saw a 150% increase in sales, with a total of 132,000 units sold from January to November, marking a 104% year-on-year growth [14]. Market Outlook - The heavy truck market is projected to return to over 1 million units in 2025, reminiscent of the market conditions from 2017 to 2019, but heavily influenced by policy-driven demand [16].

天然气重卡实现年内首次"三连增"，10月同比增长高达13 8%。 ▲图片由AI生成 今年二季度以来，国内重卡市场一扫阴霾，实现了从4月开始的月度销量"七连涨"。在市场不断复苏中，天然气重卡实现年内首次"三 连增"，10月同比增长高达1 38%，累计销量增幅重回6%的正增长区间。这一反弹是气价优势与市场需求共同作用的结果，标志着天然 气重卡市场进入新的发展阶段。 天然气重卡销量节节高 国泰海通证券研究员刘一鸣表示，天然气重卡渗透率随运煤旺季的到来持续修复。新能源重卡因20 26年起新能源汽车购置税减免变减 半所产生的"甩尾效应"，销量再创新高。 今年下半年以来，天然气重卡销量持续攀升，同比增幅明显，在波动中稳步前行。10月，天然气重卡实销2.11万辆，虽环比9月下降 10%，但同比增长13 8%。8—10月三个月累计销量达6.12万辆，较去年同期增长超15 0%，仅低于2023年同期水平。 隆众资讯天然气分析师孙傲雪给出的一组数据显示，1 0月天然气重卡在重卡终端市场的占比达30 .0 9%，时隔6个月再次突破3 0%，较7 月21 .7 7%的份额大幅提升。值得关注的是，1 0月天然气重卡销量首次超过新能源重 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [3] Core Viewpoints - The heavy truck industry continues to experience high prosperity driven by the vehicle replacement policy, with significant year-on-year growth in sales and exports [9][19][73] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In October 2025, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 106,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 59.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Registration sales were 70,000 units, up 57.0% year-on-year but down 15.9% month-on-month. Exports totaled 37,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 39.4% and a month-on-month increase of 13.9% [9][19][73]. Three Driving Forces 1. **Oil and Gas Price Differential**: The oil and gas price differential has decreased, with the price difference remaining around 3,000 yuan/ton throughout 2025. As of November 10, 2025, the price differential was 2,470.7 yuan, marking a low for the year [33][37]. 2. **New Energy Penetration**: The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks continues to grow, with October 2025 registration sales reaching 20,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 156.7% [51][55]. 3. **Strong Demand in Asia and Africa**: Exports to Asia and Africa have seen robust demand, with heavy truck exports in October 2025 reaching 37,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 39.4% [73][76]. Inventory Management - Inventory levels are being effectively reduced, with both enterprise and channel inventories showing a downward trend. In October 2025, enterprise inventory decreased by 200 units, while channel inventory fell by 100 units [14]. Market Share and Sales by Major Companies - The top three heavy truck manufacturers in October 2025 were China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, FAW Group, and Dongfeng Motor Corporation, with wholesale sales of 28,000 units, 24,000 units, and 15,000 units respectively. Their market shares were 26.5%, 22.5%, and 14.0%, reflecting year-on-year increases [12][27]. Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - The registration volume of natural gas heavy trucks in October 2025 was 21,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 137.9%. The penetration rate for natural gas heavy trucks reached 30.1%, up 10.2 percentage points year-on-year [37][45]. New Energy Heavy Trucks - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks reached 28.3% in October 2025, with significant growth in sales of new energy tractors and dump trucks [51][55]. Export Performance - Heavy truck exports in October 2025 were 37,000 units, with Africa and Asia being the largest markets, accounting for 44.5% and 41.8% of total exports respectively [73][76].

12月2日，港股集体高开，恒生指数涨0.6%报26188.55点，恒生科技指数涨0.76%报5687.49点，国企指 数涨0.56%报9224.1点，红筹指数跌0.02%报4244.75点。 盘面上，大型科技股多数走高，阿里巴巴涨3.36%，腾讯控股涨0.97%，小米集团涨0.6%，网易涨 1.8%，美团跌0.05%，快手涨3.15%，哔哩哔哩涨0.1%；保险股多数高开，友邦保险涨超1%；汽车股分 化，蔚来跌超6%，赛力斯涨超1%。 企业新闻 农业银行(01288.HK)：完成发行200亿元总损失吸收能力非资本债券。 中国生物制药(01177.HK)：自主研发的国家1类创新药TRD208在中国开展的I期临床试验已顺利完成首 例患者入组。 白云山(00874)：广州医药拟开展应收账款资产证券化业务。 维立志博-B(09887.HK)：LBL-047取得NMPA的IND批准。 比亚迪股份(01211.HK)：前11月新能源汽车产量约411.76万辆，同比增长7.29%；销量约418.2万辆，同 比增长11.3%。 吉利汽车(00175.HK)：前11个月的汽车总销量为278.78万辆，同比增长42%。11月的汽车 ...

Industry Overview - In November 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 100,000 units, a month-on-month decrease of about 6% from October 2025, but a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 46% from 68,500 units in the same month last year [1] - The heavy truck market has experienced eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42% from April to November 2025 [1] - Strong terminal sales growth, driven by the policy promoting the scrapping and updating of old operating trucks, has supported domestic demand [1] New Energy and Gas Trucks - New energy heavy trucks have set new records, while natural gas heavy trucks have seen four consecutive months of growth, exceeding 20,000 units for three consecutive months [1] - Domestic diesel heavy truck terminal sales in November are expected to remain stable [1] Company Insights China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck) - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved sales of 9,376 new energy heavy trucks, a year-on-year increase of 220.3%, surpassing the industry growth rate, with a market share of 11.8% [2] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.68 yuan per share, totaling 1.877 billion yuan, maintaining a high dividend payout ratio of 54.8% [2] - In the first half of 2025, heavy truck exports to non-Russian regions reached 143,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 35.8%, supporting overseas demand growth [2] Weichai Power - The scrapping subsidy is expected to stimulate a 10% recovery in industry sales in 2025, reaching 1 million units, benefiting the company as a leading heavy truck engine manufacturer [3] - The company delivered 5,000 large-bore engines in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 41%, with a projected total delivery of 11,000 large-bore engines for the year [3] - The company delivered 10,000 new energy heavy trucks, capturing a market share of approximately 12.6%, with expectations of 2-3 times growth in new energy products in the second half of the year [3]