Core Viewpoint - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck) shares rose nearly 4%, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company and the heavy truck industry [1] Company Performance - In the first half of the year, China National Heavy Duty Truck achieved revenue of approximately 50.878 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.21% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was about 3.427 billion yuan, an increase of 4.03% year-on-year [1] - The interim dividend declared was 0.74 HKD per share, reflecting a stable dividend policy [1] Industry Outlook - According to preliminary data, the heavy truck market in China sold around 84,000 units in August 2025, a slight decrease of 1% month-on-month but a significant increase of approximately 35% year-on-year from 62,500 units [1] - The heavy truck market has experienced five consecutive months of growth since April this year [1] - Guolian Minsheng Securities suggests that with the industry entering the peak season of September and October, the possibility of annual heavy truck wholesale sales exceeding 1 million units has increased [1] - The outlook for the heavy truck industry remains positive for September and Q4, with expectations of sales recovery [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Positive" for the heavy truck industry [1]. Core Insights - The heavy truck industry continues to exhibit high prosperity, with August 2025 sales reaching approximately 84,000 units, a 35% increase year-on-year [5]. - Environmental policies are driving the heavy truck industry, with significant support from government initiatives aimed at replacing older vehicles [5]. - The demand for natural gas and new energy heavy trucks has shown substantial growth, with new energy truck sales in August exceeding 16,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of over 160% [5]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the heavy truck sector, including China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Weichai Power, and CIMC Vehicles [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The heavy truck market in August 2025 saw a slight month-on-month decline of 1% but a significant year-on-year increase of 35% [5]. Policy Impact - The implementation of differentiated subsidies for scrapping older trucks has positively influenced the market, leading to sustained growth over five consecutive months [5]. Export Performance - Heavy truck exports are expected to grow by approximately 10% year-on-year in August 2025, exceeding expectations [5]. Company Ratings - Key companies in the industry have received "Accumulate" ratings, including: - Weichai Power: Market cap of 129.08 billion, EPS forecasted to grow from 1.31 to 1.63 from 2024 to 2026 [4]. - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group: Market cap of 21.14 billion, with EPS expected to rise from 1.26 to 1.75 [4]. - CIMC Vehicles: Market cap of 17.17 billion, with EPS projected to increase from 0.58 to 0.89 [4].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China is experiencing significant growth, with sales expected to exceed 1 million units for the year, marking a return to pre-pandemic levels [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In August 2025, approximately 84,000 heavy trucks were sold in China, a slight decrease of 1% from July but a 35% increase year-on-year from 62,500 units [1]. - Cumulative sales from January to August 2025 reached nearly 710,000 units, indicating a year-on-year growth of about 13% [3]. - The monthly average sales needed to surpass 1 million units for the year is approximately 73,000 units over the next four months, which is deemed achievable based on current market conditions [1]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The significant year-on-year growth in August's sales is attributed to a nearly 50% increase in domestic terminal sales, driven by low base effects from the previous year and supportive government policies [3]. - The "old-for-new" vehicle replacement policy implemented across various provinces has provided a stable boost to the heavy truck market since mid-May [3]. Group 3: Export and Segment Performance - Heavy truck exports in August are expected to grow by around 10% year-on-year, reflecting a robust performance in this segment [5]. - The natural gas heavy truck segment has shown signs of recovery, with terminal demand increasing by over 30% year-on-year in August, aided by stable LNG prices and regional replacement policies [6]. - Electric heavy trucks have also seen explosive growth, with terminal sales exceeding 16,000 units in August, representing a year-on-year increase of over 160% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The commercial vehicle industry in China has shown strong resilience in the first half of 2025, marking a significant recovery from previous years of decline, supported by sales data, policy backing, and structural adjustments [1] Sales and Production Data - From January to July 2025, commercial vehicle production and sales reached 2.397 million and 2.428 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 6% and 3.9% [2] Heavy Truck Market Performance - Heavy trucks, as a market indicator, saw cumulative sales of 539,300 units in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.96% [3] Company Financial Performance - Weichai Power reported revenue of 113.152 billion yuan and a net profit of 5.64 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, with net profit decreasing by approximately 4.4% due to a one-time event related to its subsidiary KION Group [4][5] - Excluding this one-time impact, the company's net profit showed an approximate 4% growth compared to the previous year [5] Core Business Growth - The company achieved stable growth in its core business, selling 362,000 engines, including 125,000 heavy truck engines, while maintaining a leading market share in the natural gas heavy truck engine sector [6] Strategic Emerging Business Growth - Weichai Power's strategic emerging businesses are rapidly growing, with sales of high-end M series large-bore engines exceeding 5,000 units, a 41% year-on-year increase, generating revenue of 2.52 billion yuan, up 73% [7] - The company’s power battery sales reached 2.32 GWh, a 91% increase year-on-year, supported by advancements in battery technology [7] Global Expansion and Financial Improvement - The overseas subsidiary KION Group showed significant recovery, achieving revenue of 5.5 billion euros and new orders of 6.21 billion euros, a 22% year-on-year increase [8] - The company’s gross margin improved to 22.13% in the second quarter, up 0.74 percentage points year-on-year, indicating enhanced profitability [8] Future Growth Potential - The global data center market is experiencing robust growth, with China's data center market expected to exceed 318 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 25% [10] - Weichai Power is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for large-bore engines and diesel generator sets in data centers, enhancing its market share and profitability [11] Policy and Market Opportunities - The heavy truck market is expected to see sustained demand due to policies supporting the replacement of old operational trucks, with a significant number of vehicles entering the replacement cycle [13] Shareholder Returns - Weichai Power announced a high interim dividend plan, distributing 3.58 yuan per 10 shares, with total payouts expected to reach 3.105 billion yuan, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [15]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Weichai Power (2338 HK) with a target price of HKD 20.50, indicating a potential upside of 25.8% from the current price of HKD 16.30 [1][7][11]. Core Insights - Weichai Power's 1H25 performance was stable, with revenue of RMB 113.15 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 56.43 billion, a decrease of 4.4% year-on-year. The company expects strong growth from its M series large-bore engines and data center engines, driven by increasing demand in these segments [2][8]. - The company is experiencing significant growth in its large-bore engine sales, with over 5,000 units sold, representing a 41% year-on-year increase. The sales of new energy heavy trucks surged by 255% year-on-year, with over 10,000 units sold [8]. - The report highlights the acceleration of overseas business expansion, with new orders from Kion Group amounting to EUR 6.21 billion in 1H25, setting a new quarterly record in 2Q25 [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Weichai Power are as follows: RMB 213.96 billion in 2023, RMB 215.69 billion in 2024, and RMB 237.92 billion in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.3% from 2024 to 2025 [3][13]. - The net profit is expected to grow from RMB 9.01 billion in 2023 to RMB 14.64 billion in 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth rate of 28.4% in 2025 [3][13]. - The report indicates a projected dividend yield of 6.5% in 2025, with a payout ratio expected to increase to 60% in the future, providing a strong safety margin for investors [8]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Weichai Power holds an estimated market share of 9-10% in the domestic data center engine market, with significant growth potential due to the increasing demand for AI data centers and the domestic replacement of foreign products [8]. - The company benefits from a short supply cycle, product reliability, and strong product capabilities, which are expected to enhance its market share in the high-margin large-bore engine segment [8].

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China is experiencing a gradual recovery, with sales expected to rise due to economic recovery and the introduction of a "trade-in" policy for heavy trucks in 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In August 2025, approximately 84,000 heavy trucks were sold in China, reflecting a slight month-on-month decrease of 1% compared to July 2025, but a year-on-year increase of about 35% [1] Group 2: Future Projections - With the implementation of the "trade-in" policy and the recovery of the economy, domestic heavy truck sales are anticipated to gradually increase [1] - The penetration rate of new energy heavy trucks is expected to rise significantly, reaching 15% by 2025, driven by advancements in technology and decreasing costs [1] Group 3: Industry Growth Potential - The heavy truck industry still has growth potential, evidenced by the recovery of domestic market conditions and continued growth in exports [1] - The development of natural gas heavy trucks is expected to raise industry entry barriers, which may enhance the profitability of leading companies [1]

这是8月份重卡市场交出的"成绩单"。截止到今年8月份，我国重卡市场已经连续涨了五个月，让行业看到了全年百万辆的曙光和希望。 究竟2025年8月重卡行业销售情况如何？背后的原因何在？ 请看第一商用车网带来的分析报道。 淡季不淡！ 其次，出口继续保持稳健上升。今年8月份，中国重卡出口批发销量预计同比增长10%左右，该细分领域的表现同样超出预期。 作为"传统淡季"的7、8月份，重卡市场的整体表现仍然不错。 根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年8月份，我国重卡市场共计销售8.4万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比今年7 月微降1%，比上年同期的6.25万辆上涨约35%。这也是重卡市场自今年4月份以来的五连涨——4月份销量同比增长6.5%，5月份同比 增长13.6%，6月份同比增长37%，7月份销量同比增长47%，8月份销量则同比增长了35%。 8月重卡销出8.4万辆，全年百万辆已无悬念 2019-2025年我国重卡市场销量月度走势图（单位：辆） 8.4万辆放在最近八年来看，属于第二高水平，只低于2020年8月的13万辆，比其他年份的8月份销量都要高，含金量比较高，市场表现 也小超预期。累计来看，今年1- ...

Group 1 - Weichai Power (000338) reported a mid-year revenue of 113.15 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, with a net profit of 5.64 billion RMB, down approximately 4.4% [1] - The company maintained its leading market position across various products, with significant sales growth in strategic business areas [1] - Engine sales reached 362,000 units, with M series large-bore engines selling over 5,000 units, a 41% increase year-on-year, and data center engines sold nearly 600 units, up 491% [1] Group 2 - The company continues to enhance product competitiveness through a leading strategy in complete vehicles, with Shaanxi Heavy Duty Truck achieving a 14.6% year-on-year increase in vehicle sales, totaling 73,000 units [2] - New energy vehicle sales exceeded 10,000 units, marking a 255% increase, with significant growth in overseas markets such as Guinea, Saudi Arabia, and Algeria [2] - The launch of the X6000 flagship version 16NG720 horsepower natural gas heavy truck redefines the high horsepower value benchmark in China's heavy truck industry [2] Group 3 - The company actively supports the national rural revitalization strategy, focusing on enhancing its agricultural equipment sector, with Weichai Lovol Smart Agriculture aiming to become China's leading agricultural machinery brand [3] - The agricultural equipment segment achieved a revenue of 9.86 billion RMB, with export revenue increasing by 18.6% [3] - The introduction of high-end products like the corn harvester CE and CF series has significantly improved fuel efficiency and reduced grain loss rates [3] Group 4 - The overseas subsidiary KION Group reported new orders of 6.21 billion euros, a 22.2% year-on-year increase, with total revenue of 5.5 billion euros [4] - The forklift business generated 4.13 billion euros in revenue, while supply chain solutions contributed 1.37 billion euros [4] - The company received a gold rating in sustainable development from a leading global assessment system, achieving the highest historical score in the Dow Jones European Best Companies Index [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report maintains the profit forecast for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (China National Heavy Duty Truck) for 2025/2026, with an upward adjustment of the target price by 11.9% to HKD 27.21, indicating a potential upside of 23.7% from the current stock price [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 4.2% year-on-year to CNY 50.88 billion, and the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 4.0% to CNY 3.43 billion, aligning with expectations [1] - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 improved by 0.4 percentage points to 15.1%, while the expense ratio decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.7%, indicating effective cost control [3] - The revenue from the heavy truck business grew by 4% to CNY 44.2 billion, maintaining an operating profit margin of 6.0% [3] Group 2: Market Position and Sales - The heavy truck industry saw a wholesale sales increase of 7% year-on-year to 539,000 units in the first half of 2025, with the company achieving a 9.2% increase in heavy truck sales to 137,000 units, maintaining its leading market share [2] - The average revenue per heavy truck decreased by CNY 15,400 to CNY 320,900, while the average profit per heavy truck fell by CNY 1,245 to CNY 25,100, remaining at historically high levels [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from various factors such as the old-for-new policy, strong export demand, growth in the new energy segment, and a recovery in infrastructure projects, projecting a 10% year-on-year increase in heavy truck sales to 1 million units in 2025 [4] - The new energy heavy truck segment saw a significant increase in registration volume, with a year-on-year rise of 186% to 79,000 units, and the company achieved a 226% increase in its own new energy heavy truck registrations [4] - The company is advancing in electric and intelligent vehicle technologies, with successful deliveries in low-speed logistics and high-speed trunk logistics markets [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (3808 HK) with a target price of HKD 26.45, indicating a potential upside of 13.4% from the current price of HKD 23.32 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable performance with a revenue of RMB 50.878 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.427 billion, also up by 4.0% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [6]. - Heavy truck sales increased by 9.2% to 136,000 units, with domestic and overseas sales growing by 19.3% and 0.8%, respectively. The gross margin slightly improved year-on-year but decreased quarter-on-quarter to 15.1% in the second half of 2024 [6]. - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.68 per share, representing approximately 55% of the net profit for the first half, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 85,498 million in 2023, RMB 95,062 million in 2024, and RMB 109,886 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43.9% in 2023 and 11.2% in 2024 [5][10]. - The net profit is expected to grow from RMB 5,318 million in 2023 to RMB 6,719 million in 2025, with a corresponding increase in earnings per share from RMB 1.93 to RMB 2.43 [5][10]. - The company maintains a healthy dividend yield, projected to be 5.0% in 2023, increasing to 6.3% by 2025 [5][10]. Market Position - China National Heavy Duty Truck holds a market share of approximately 27.6%, reinforcing its position as a leading player in the domestic heavy truck market. The report anticipates that the company will achieve sales of 1 million units in the current year, supported by government incentives and a recovery in demand [6][10]. - The heavy truck industry is expected to transition from seasonal recovery to structural growth, benefiting major players like China National Heavy Duty Truck due to increasing demand and favorable policies [6].