Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a "tight balance" in supply and a "structural transformation" in demand, influenced by various factors including geopolitical risks and technological shifts in battery applications [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract opening at 16,920 yuan, reaching a high of 17,025 yuan and closing at 16,995 yuan, up 40 yuan or 0.24% [1]. - The latest price for London lead is reported at 1,977.5 USD, an increase of 7.5 USD [1]. - The average price for domestic lead in the ccmn market is reported at 16,950 yuan, with a slight increase of 10 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is affected by a sharp reduction in imported lead concentrate, leading to tight resource availability, while high prices of by-products like silver and antimony are driving smelters to maintain high operating rates [3]. - The recycling of lead from waste batteries faces challenges due to an inefficient recovery system, resulting in a year-on-year contraction in production [3]. - Traditional demand from lead-acid batteries remains stable but is under pressure from the technological advancements of lithium batteries [3]. - Emerging demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is rapidly increasing, becoming a key structural increment in lead demand [3]. Group 3: Short-term Outlook - In the short term, the lead market is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation, with northern regions experiencing tightened supply and southern markets showing limited demand [4]. - Traders are cautious, with a reluctance to sell, leading to relatively firm pricing, while downstream buyers are primarily focused on essential purchases [4].

龙头企业：聚焦资源与循环，拓展新增长 面对行业结构性矛盾，龙头企业战略方向明确。一是持续强化资源保障，通过矿山运营与回收网络建设 巩固原料优势。二是加大在储能、新国标适配等新兴领域的研发与市场开拓，培育新动能。三是推动循 环经济，完善"生产-回收-再生"体系，以应对环保与成本双重压力，构筑长期竞争壁垒。 今日走势预测： 整体而言，铅价在成本与需求间寻找平衡，短期走势取决于传统淡季需求强度与再生铅原料紧张的博 弈，预计短期内铅价或涨跌不大。 【ccmn.cn铅期货市场】隔周伦铅收跌，开盘报1986美元/吨，高点报1986美元，低点报1965美元，尾盘 收于1970美元，下跌14.5美元；成交量3547手。国内夜盘沪期铅高位窄幅震荡，尾盘小幅收涨，主力合 约沪铅2601收报16960元/吨，涨幅为0.03%。长江铅业网(pb.ccmn.cn)今日现货铅价行情预估：国内宏观 面相对平稳，年末资金面逐步收紧，但低库存对铅价形成阶段性支撑，政策层面暂无直接影响铅产业链 的新增调控措施，市场聚焦年底企业资金回笼节奏。海外宏观面核心扰动来自两大因素：一是美联储降 息乐观情绪消退，宏观资金从大宗商品市场阶段性撤离，压制有色金 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-23 散单成交下滑 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-22，LME铅现货升水为-45.23美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16825 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至60.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/ 吨至16925元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至16850元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日 变化25元/吨至16825元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-50元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/ 吨至9825元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10025元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10225元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-22，沪铅主力合约开于16970元/吨，收于16920元/吨，较前一交易日变化40元/吨，全天交易日 成交49244手，较前一交易日变化-7217手，全天交易日持仓59586手，手较前一交易日变化-2591手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17030元/吨，最低点达到16890元/吨。夜盘 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Today's Shanghai lead futures saw a slight increase, with the main contract opening at 16,970 yuan, reaching a high of 17,030 yuan and a low of 16,890 yuan, closing at 16,920 yuan, up 70 yuan or 0.42% [1] - The latest LME lead price reported at 1,978.5 USD, down 6 USD [1] - The average price for ccmn Longjiang comprehensive 1 lead was reported at 17,025 yuan, an increase of 75 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 2: Macro Analysis - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has led to a weaker dollar, providing liquidity support for dollar-denominated commodities like lead [2] - LME inventory continues to decrease, with a weekly reduction of 3,500 tons, reinforcing bullish sentiment and expectations of tight supply in the global market [2] - Domestic macro sentiment is improving, but the impact on lead demand is undergoing structural changes, with traditional infrastructure support weakening due to capital flow towards debt reduction [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lead market is characterized by "internal tightness and external shortage," with supply facing rigid gaps due to raw material shortages and environmental production limits affecting domestic recycled lead [3] - While primary lead production is recovering, delivery brand output is tightening due to maintenance, and LME inventory outflows are exacerbating global supply tightness [3] - Demand shows structural weakness, with core support from seasonal replacement demand for automotive starter batteries, but electric bicycle battery demand is weak due to new standards and export barriers [3] Group 4: Spot Market and Price Forecast - The current lead spot market is in a weak balance supported by low inventory, with traders reluctant to sell, leading to increased spot premiums [4] - Short-term price trends are expected to show strong fluctuations, with lead prices likely to continue high-level oscillations in the near term [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 铅价持续偏弱 操作暂转变为逢高卖出套保 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-16，LME铅现货升水为-51.52美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-150元/吨至16825 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-150 元/吨至16875元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-150元/吨至16825元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-150元/吨至16825元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至0元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至9875元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至10025元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元 /吨。 期货方面：2025-12-16，沪铅主力合约开于17015元/吨，收于16825元/吨，较前一交易日变化-185元/吨，全天交易 日成交40679手，较前一交易日变化-833手，全天交易日持仓29732手，手较前一交易日变化-2664手，日内价格震 荡，最高点达到17015元/ ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-16 库存方面：2025-12-15，SMM铅锭库存总量为2.2万吨，较上周同期变化0.14万吨。截止12月15日，LME铅库存为 252475吨，较上一交易日变化17725吨。 策略 现货散单成交寡淡 铅价难有靓丽表现 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-12-15，LME铅现货升水为-49.62美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16975 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至25.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化-50 元/吨至17025元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化-50元/吨至16975元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交 易日变化-25元/吨至16975元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化 -25元/吨至9900元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10075元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10275元/ 吨。 期货方面：2025-12-15，沪铅主力合约开于17130元/吨，收于17010元/吨，较前一交易日变化-11 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [4][34] Summary by Related Sections 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures showed a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend, ranging from around 17,010 yuan/ton to about 17,380 yuan/ton [8] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the business climate. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, the production index was at the critical point, and the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were all below the critical point [12] 3. Spot Analysis - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,255 yuan/ton, 17,300 yuan/ton, and 17,270 yuan/ton respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the premium or discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 200 yuan/metal ton, 400 yuan/metal ton, and 320 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 260 yuan/metal ton. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 645,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Seasonally, the current output was at an average level compared to the past five years [22] 5. Inventory Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 34,735 tons, a decrease of 3,064 tons from the previous week. As of December 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 243,550 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 48.06% [28] 6. Fundamental Analysis - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the new orders index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing market demand. Lead processing fees continued to decline slowly and remained at a low level. In October, lead production was at a moderate level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline and was at a moderate level in recent years, while LME lead inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years [33] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [34]

Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - The non - ferrous sector is strong, driving up the lead price. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [1][3] Market News and Key Data Spot - On December 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was - 43.64 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 25 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. Different regional spot prices and premiums also had corresponding changes [1] Futures - On December 4, 2025, the main contract of SHFE lead opened at 17,240 yuan/ton, closed at 17,245 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 37,288 lots, up 10,271 lots, and the position was 46,582 lots, down 45 lots. The night - session closed at 17,305 yuan/ton, up 0.70% from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton. The price difference between futures and spot narrowed slightly, and the market trading was okay [2] Inventory - On December 4, 2025, the SMM lead ingot inventory was 24,000 tons, down 7,100 tons from last week. The LME lead inventory was 248,050 tons, down 5,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Absolute price: Maintain a neutral view. In the fourth quarter, the resumption of recycled lead production was less than expected, primary lead producers were reluctant to sell due to maintenance, and the industry chain maintained low inventory. The negative lead concentrate processing fee provided effective cost support. The battery production increased month - on - month but the terminal demand was average, and the closure of the import window weakened the overseas impact. The price is expected to fluctuate between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3]

Report Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core View - In the fourth quarter, the resumption of secondary lead production fell short of expectations, and primary lead producers carried out maintenance and were reluctant to sell, resulting in low inventories in the industry chain. The negative processing fees for lead concentrates provided effective cost support. The operating rate of lead-acid batteries rebounded month-on-month, but the terminal demand was average. The closure of the import window reduced the impact from overseas. Overall, the lead market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand. Price fluctuations were expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On December 2, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 25 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,875 yuan/ton, 10,050 yuan/ton, and 10,225 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On December 2, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,145 yuan/ton and closed at 17,210 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,077 lots, an increase of 13,295 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 47,601 lots, an increase of 414 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,230 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton and closed at 17,165 yuan/ton, down 0.09% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On December 2, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 256,950 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy Absolute Price Strategy - Neutral, with price fluctuations expected to range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3] Option Strategy - Sell wide straddle [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strategy for the lead market is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The supply of lead ore is continuously tight, and the processing fee remains low. The operating rates of primary and secondary lead are both at low levels, resulting in limited supply pressure. The consumption side remains stable, with no strong recovery signals. Due to the impact of large orders in the market, the lead price once dropped significantly. In this situation, it is recommended to mainly short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 27, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$40.08/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day to 16,900 yuan/ton. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 20.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 16,900 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate-scrap price difference remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton. The price of scrap electric vehicle batteries decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 9,925 yuan/ton, the price of scrap white shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,050 yuan/ton, and the price of scrap black shells decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,250 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 27, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,060 yuan/ton and closed at 16,955 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 57,305 lots, an increase of 17,118 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 48,129 lots, a decrease of 904 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with a maximum of 17,075 yuan/ton and a minimum of 15,885 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,990 yuan/ton and closed at 16,980 yuan/ton, a 0.47% increase from the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] Inventory - On November 27, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 264,175 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the previous trading day [2]