2025 年 11 月 12 日 铅：库存大幅增加，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17440 | -0.37% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2056.5 | 0.56% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 30855 | -755 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 9281 | -1026 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 55107 | -3618 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 153641 | 2117 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 25 | 25 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -15 | -6.5 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -45 | 55 | 进口升贴水 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-11-11 下游以签订长单为主 铅价维持震荡格局 市场要闻与重要数据 现货方面：2025-11-10，LME铅现货升水为-10.74美元/吨。SMM1#铅锭现货价较前一交易日变化50元/吨至17300 元/吨，SMM上海铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变化 0元/吨至0.00元/吨，SMM广东铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨 至17350元/吨，SMM河南铅现货较前一交易日变化25元/吨至17325元/吨，SMM天津铅现货升贴水较前一交易日变 化25元/吨至17375元/吨。铅精废价差较前一交易日变化0元/吨至-25元/吨，废电动车电池较前一交易日变化0元/吨 至10025元/吨，废白壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10150元/吨，废黑壳较前一交易日变化0元/吨至10400元/吨。 期货方面：2025-11-10，沪铅主力合约开于17440元/吨，收于17505元/吨，较前一交易日变化85元/吨，全天交易日 成交31610手，较前一交易日变化4404手，全天交易日持仓58725手，手较前一交易日变化-1093手，日内价格震荡， 最高点达到17535元/吨，最低点达到17440元/吨。 ...

2025 年 11 月 10 日 铅：海外库存减少，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17420 | -0.06% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2045 | 0.42% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 27206 | -16966 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 10307 | 3259 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 59818 | -2680 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 152994 | 2647 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -8.5 | 6.46 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -60 | 0 | 进口升贴水（美 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Suspended [4] Core View - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while secondary lead production is gradually resuming. The demand for lead batteries is constrained by high lead prices, and production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although social inventories are at historical lows, they are expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive. Overall, the upside of lead prices is limited by weak consumption, while the downside is supported by costs. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 6, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$30.22/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the price of used electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of used white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of used black shells decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,400 yuan/ton [1]. Futures - On November 6, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,430 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 44,172 lots, a decrease of 2,244 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 62,498 lots, a decrease of 3,201 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,555 yuan/ton and a low of 17,350 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,420 yuan/ton and closed at 17,405 yuan/ton, down 0.23% from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM 1 lead price decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SHFE lead futures weakened and fluctuated during the day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Hunan, smelters' quotes at a discount of 30 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price had difficulty in making transactions, and traders quoted at a discount of 200 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2506 contract; in Anhui and Jiangxi, smelters' inventories were low, and they quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory sales; in Guangdong, holders' ex-factory supplies were quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for transactions. As lead prices continued to weaken, downstream buyers maintained just-in-time purchases, and the enthusiasm for stocking up at low prices was poor, resulting in a generally sluggish spot market [2]. Inventory - On November 6, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 32,000 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 205,500 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a neutral stance. The lead price is expected to remain in a volatile range of approximately 16,900 yuan/ton to 17,600 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [4]. - Arbitrage: Suspend for now [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage strategy: Suspended [3] Group 2: Core View - Raw material supply remains tight, suppressing primary lead production while secondary lead production recovers slowly. High lead prices restrain downstream battery demand, leading to reduced consumption due to enterprise production cuts. Although social inventories are at a historical low, they are expected to accumulate in November with supply recovery and imports. Overall, lead prices are expected to remain volatile, constrained by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, with an estimated oscillation range of approximately 16,900 - 17,600 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery [3] Group 3: Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On November 5, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$24.40/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,325 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,400 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On November 5, 2025, the Shanghai lead main contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,475 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 46,416 lots, an increase of 13,741 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 65,699 lots, a decrease of 393 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,585 yuan/ton and a low of 17,425 yuan/ton. In the night session, the contract opened at 17,465 yuan/ton and closed at 17,490 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On November 5, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the previous week. As of November 6, the LME lead inventory was 208,600 tons, a decrease of 3,925 tons from the previous trading day [2] Group 4: Graphs - The report includes 16 graphs covering various aspects such as lead price premiums, mine treatment charges, production rates, inventories, price differences, and battery production rates [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Arbitrage: Suspended [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material supply remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while the secondary lead production is slowly resuming. The demand for lead-acid batteries from downstream is constrained by high lead prices, and the production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Although the social inventory is at a historical low, it is expected to accumulate in November as supply recovers and imports arrive at the port. Overall, the lead price is suppressed by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The report suggests paying attention to inventory changes and the pace of consumption recovery, with the expected lead price volatility range approximately between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On November 4, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$28.32/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1]. Futures Market - On November 4, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,415 yuan/ton and closed at the same price, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 32,675 lots, a decrease of 2,303 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 66,092 lots, a decrease of 1,997 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, reaching a high of 17,490 yuan/ton and a low of 17,400 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,425 yuan/ton and closed at 17,435 yuan/ton, a 0.06% decrease from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 25 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. In Henan, the quotes of holders were at a discount of 120 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory sales, and later the discount widened to 170 yuan/ton for transactions. In Hunan, smelters with low inventories held firm on prices, with quotes at a premium of 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for ex-factory sales. Some manufacturers mainly fulfilled long-term contracts and suspended spot sales. In Yunnan, holders sold at a discount of 200 - 250 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead for a small amount of transactions. With the lead price oscillating strongly, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream battery enterprises improved slightly, and market transactions were fair [2]. Inventory - On November 4, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons from the same period last week. As of November 5, the LME lead inventory was 212,525 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. The report suggests that due to the current situation of raw material supply and demand and inventory trends, the lead price is expected to remain volatile, and investors should pay attention to inventory changes and consumption recovery [3]. - Arbitrage: Suspended [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Unilateral strategy rating: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage strategy rating: On hold [4] Group 2: Core View - The supply of raw materials remains tight, pressuring the production of primary lead, while secondary lead is slowly resuming production. The demand for lead-acid batteries from downstream is suppressed by high lead prices, and production cuts by enterprises have led to weaker consumption. Social inventories are at historical lows, but with the recovery of supply and the arrival of imports, inventories are expected to accumulate in November. Overall, the lead price is constrained by weak consumption on the upside and supported by costs on the downside, and is expected to remain in a volatile pattern. The expected price range is approximately between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,600 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 3, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -26.48 dollars/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton, SMM Guangdong lead spot remained unchanged at 17,275 yuan/ton, SMM Henan lead spot remained unchanged at 17,250 yuan/ton, and SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,300 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 3, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,390 yuan/ton, closed at 17,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 34,978 lots, a decrease of 13,341 lots from the previous trading day. The position for the whole trading day was 68,089 lots, a decrease of 95 lots from the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,480 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 17,350 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained flat compared to the previous trading day. In Henan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 100 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract for ex-factory, with few actual transactions. In Hunan, smelters' quotes were at par with SMM1 lead for ex-factory, and traders' quotes were at a discount of 170 - 180 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2512 contract. In Anhui and Jiangxi, holders' quotes were at a premium of 75 - 100 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory. In Yunnan, holders' quotes were at a discount of 200 - 250 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead with small-volume transactions. With the lead price consolidating, downstream battery enterprises were mostly in a wait-and-see mode, mainly taking delivery under long-term contracts, and spot transactions were relatively light [2] Inventory - On November 3, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared to the same period last week. As of November 3, the LME lead inventory was 216,800 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Lead Monthly Report for November - Regenerated Lead Restart Process Accelerates, Shanghai Lead Price May Fall from Highs [4] - Report Date: October 30, 2025 [9][23][35] - Report Author: Galaxy Futures [8] Core Viewpoint - The restart process of regenerated lead production is accelerating, and the Shanghai lead price may fall from its high level [4] Summary by Section 1. Fundamental Situation - **Supply Side** - **Lead Concentrate**: The report provides data on domestic lead concentrate production, net imports, and total supply from January 2024 to September 2025. For example, in 2025 from January to September, the cumulative production was 124.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.54%, and the cumulative net imports were 107.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.52% [89] - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead from January 2024 to September 2025 is presented. In 2025 from January to September, the cumulative production was 286.99 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.69% [89] - **Regenerated Lead**: The production of regenerated lead from January 2024 to September 2025 is shown. In 2025 from January to September, the cumulative production was 231.70 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.29% [89] - **Refined Lead**: Data on refined lead imports, exports, and total supply are also provided. In 2025 from January to September, the cumulative net exports were 0.64 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108.06%, and the cumulative total supply was 518.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27% [89] - **Demand Side** - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The report includes data on the monthly and weekly开工率 of lead - acid batteries, exports, imports, and inventory days of lead - acid battery enterprises and dealers [93][94][100] - **Downstream Industries**: Data on the production and exports of automobiles, new energy vehicles, motorcycles, power project investment, communication base station construction, and lead alloy imports and exports are presented [107][110][114][115][117][126] 2. Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - The report predicts that the Shanghai lead price may fall from its high level due to the accelerating restart process of regenerated lead production [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: On hold [4] Core View - The domestic lead ore supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have low willingness to purchase high-silver ores. The market is currently in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to significant inventory reduction in China. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, lead prices may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data Spot - On October 28, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$33.80/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 25 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,300 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,350 yuan/ton. The lead refined-scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of waste electric vehicle batteries, waste white shells, and waste black shells also remained unchanged [1] Futures - On October 28, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,520 yuan/ton, closed at 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 57,175 lots, a decrease of 24,547 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 77,635 lots, a decrease of 6,760 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,540 yuan/ton and a low of 17,340 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,315 yuan/ton and closed at 17,370 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 28, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons from the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 229,675 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The absolute price strategy is neutral, and the option strategy is to wait and see [3][4]

Report Date - The report is dated October 29, 2025 [1][5][8] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities, including copper, zinc, lead, etc., with most commodities expected to show oscillatory trends [2] Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, prices are oscillating. The trend strength is 1 [2][5][7] - **Zinc**: Continuing to oscillate. The trend strength is 0 [2][8][10] - **Lead**: Overseas inventories are continuously decreasing, supporting prices. The trend strength is 0 [2][11] - **Aluminum**: Continuing to oscillate. Alumina is in short - term sideways movement, and cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. The trend strength for all is 0 [2][13][14] - **Nickel**: There is a game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns, and nickel prices are oscillating in a narrow range. Stainless steel has limited downward potential and lacks upward drivers. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][15][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot tender price is at a high level, showing a strong - side operation. The trend strength is 1 [2][18][21] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is obvious bottom support. The trend strength is 1 [2][22][25] - **Polysilicon**: Market sentiment has cooled, and there is a risk of a decline. The trend strength is -1 [2][23][25] - **Iron Ore**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][26][27] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro sentiment, steel prices are oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][28][31] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Oscillating in a wide range. The trend strength for both is 0 [2][33][35] - **Coke**: Oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][36][38] - **Coking Coal**: Supported by fundamentals, oscillating on the strong side. The trend strength is 0 [2][37][38] Others - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The trend strength is 0 [2][39][42] - **Para - Xylene**: In a high - level oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **PTA**: Oil prices have corrected, and valuations have declined. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **MEG**: In a short - term oscillatory market. The trend strength is 0 [2][43][48] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weak, and the price of cis - butadiene rubber is under pressure. The trend strength is -1 [2][50][52] - **LLDPE**: Mainly oscillating. No trend strength provided [2] - **PP**: Stopping falling in the short term and oscillating in the medium term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed. No trend strength provided [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Methanol**: Oscillating under pressure. No trend strength provided [2] - **Urea**: Spot trading has weakened, and pressure is gradually increasing. No trend strength provided [2] - **Styrene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **Soda Ash**: There is little change in the spot market. No trend strength provided [2] - **LPG**: The upward driving force is limited, and attention should be paid to cost changes. No trend strength provided [2] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it is oscillating weakly in the short term. No trend strength provided [2] - **PVC**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [2] - **Fuel Oil**: Retreating in the short term, with continued increased volatility. No trend strength provided [2] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Temporarily stronger than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable. No trend strength provided [2] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Oscillating and consolidating. No trend strength provided [2] - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: Rebounding in the short term due to positive demand feedback. No trend strength provided [4] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level. No trend strength provided [4] - **Pure Benzene**: Mainly oscillating in the short term. No trend strength provided [4] - **Palm Oil**: The de - stocking in the producing areas is slow, and attention should be paid to the lower support. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Oil**: US soybeans have rebounded, and the oil - meal ratio has declined. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal is rebounding and oscillating. No trend strength provided [4] - **Soybean No.1**: Oscillating on the strong side. No trend strength provided [4] - **Corn**: Oscillating weakly. No trend strength provided [4] - **Sugar**: Weak overseas and strong domestic. No trend strength provided [4] - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton has increased, supporting the futures price of cotton. No trend strength provided [4] - **Egg**: Maintaining adjustment. No trend strength provided [4] - **Live Pig**: The sentiment in the spot market has declined, awaiting confirmation. No trend strength provided [4] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. No trend strength provided [4]