Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper fundamentals may be in a stage of slightly decreasing supply and gradually increasing demand, with industrial inventory reduction and positive expectations. Optionally, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.26, a decrease of 0.0348 compared to the previous period, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market with a slight decline in implied volatility. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis and the red bars are slightly converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 86,630 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 10,853 dollars/ton, up 57 dollars. The spread between different months of the main contract is - 90 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 202,371 lots, down 1,756 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 20,440 lots, down 229 lots. The LME copper inventory is 136,275 tons, up 375 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 115,035 tons, down 1,105 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 11,725 tons, up 450 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 42,964 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 86,765 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 86,845 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 45 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 33.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 135 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 14.85 dollars/ton, up 3.37 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.04 dollars/kiloton, up 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 77,150 yuan/metal ton, up 340 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,850 yuan/metal ton, up 340 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton. The output of refined copper is 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 438,000 tons, down 52,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 59,040 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,550 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 790 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,378.07 billion yuan, up 582.31 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 67,705.71 billion yuan, up 7,396.52 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,371,236.1 million pieces, up 120,949 million pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 17.33%, down 0.33%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.33%, down 0.11%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 13.61%, down 0.0041%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.26, down 0.0348 [2]. Industry News - Fed Governor Milan supports further interest rate cuts to prevent the future weakening of the US economy and advocates for a faster pace of rate cuts than the traditional 25 - basis - point per - time. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the US economy may be experiencing a decline in demand, but tariff - related inflation is currently under control, and the Fed should discuss whether to continue rate cuts on the basis of the 50 - basis - point rate cuts this year with an "open mind". In October, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 2.951 million and 2.242 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 11.4% and a decline of 0.8%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.657 million and 1.282 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 19.8% and 7.3%. From January to October, the production and retail sales of passenger cars were 23.738 million and 19.25 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 13.6% and 7.9%. The production and retail sales of new energy vehicles were 12.037 million and 10.151 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 30.3% and 21.9%. The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued a document focusing on the large - scale development and high - quality consumption of new energy, proposing phased goals and seven key tasks to build a new power system compatible with a high proportion of new energy to support the carbon peak and national self - contribution goals [2].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are in a high - level correction and oscillating to accumulate strength due to factors such as the decline in Sino - US manufacturing PMI, the US government shutdown leading to tight market liquidity, and the strengthening of the US dollar index. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still favored as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game and a substitute for precious metals, given the tight copper concentrate supply and the booming green copper demand [6]. - Long - term, copper is positively correlated with the Nasdaq index, gold, and crude oil, and negatively correlated with the US Treasury yield. In 2025, the gold - copper ratio has been rising, and copper still has room for a catch - up increase compared to gold [20]. Group 3: Summaries Based on the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Summary - The short - term copper price is under pressure due to macro factors, and the long - term outlook for copper is positive. Short - term, it is advisable to try long positions on dips, and long - term strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should consider adding option protection, reducing positions, and strictly controlling risks [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - The US government shutdown has led to a dollar shortage, with the US dollar index breaking through the 100 mark this week, suppressing copper prices. The US 10 - month ADP employment increased by 42,000, exceeding expectations, but the overall employment situation still has uncertainties. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is 70.6% [14]. - Sino - US manufacturing PMI has declined month - on - month. China's September manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The US 10 - month ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7. There are concerns about economic recession risks [17]. - There are uncertainties about the legality of Trump's tariffs. If the US Supreme Court rules the tariffs illegal, the US government may face a refund of about $140 billion in taxes, which will impact the federal finance [17]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - In 2025, the production of global mainstream copper mines is expected to be revised down to 12.2 million tons, a decrease of 401,300 tons compared to 2024, a 3.18% decrease, intensifying concerns about the global copper shortage [43]. - In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the contraction is expected to continue in Q4. The import of copper concentrate in China decreased in September, and the port inventory is lower than the historical average. The copper concentrate TC is at a historically low level, and the smelting processing fee is deeply inverted [49]. - The supply of scrap copper in the market is tight. The import window for scrap copper is closed, and the domestic supply is short. The refined - scrap price difference has decreased [56]. - In 2025, the global refined copper production shows a structural differentiation. China contributes most of the global increment, while overseas production in most countries has declined to varying degrees [59]. Demand - In September, the output and operating rate of copper products increased. The operating rate of mid - downstream processing enterprises also rebounded slightly. The terminal demand for electricity and new energy vehicles shows resilience, while the performance of the home appliance and real estate industries is weak [74][78]. - The global demand for green copper is booming. The copper - electricity - RMB internationalization path is expected to be opened up [84]. 4. Summary and Outlook - Macroscopically, the US manufacturing PMI has declined, the US government shutdown continues, the US dollar index has returned above 100, and market liquidity is tight, causing commodities to retreat from high levels. The Fed's December interest - rate cut probability is uncertain [101]. - Fundamentally, the output of global major copper mines is expected to continue to contract in Q4. The copper smelting industry at home and abroad is anti - involution. The output of electrolytic copper in China decreased in October and is expected to decline in November. The inventory situation is complex, with LME copper inventory decreasing and COMEX copper inventory increasing but difficult to flow back. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased after the copper price decline, and the terminal demand for electricity and new energy vehicles remains resilient [102]. - Short - term, copper prices are recommended to try long positions on dips. Long - term, strategic long positions should be held. Industrial hedging should add option protection, reduce positions, and control risks strictly. The short - term focus range for SHFE copper is [84,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [10,500, 11,000] US dollars/ton [103][104].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of copper ore remains tight, with the copper concentrate processing fee TC at a deeply negative level. The market generally expects the final result of the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee negotiation to be significantly lower than the 2025 benchmark price of $21.25 per dry ton, and it may approach zero, with individual negotiations possibly resulting in negative values. - In November, the number of smelters scheduled for maintenance decreased to 5, involving a rough smelting capacity of 1.5 million tons and an estimated impact on production of 48,000 tons. Due to the pressure on raw materials being transmitted to the domestic smelting sector, along with negative copper processing fees and falling by - product prices, smelter profits are significantly pressured, and it is expected that the electrolytic copper output in November will decline month - on - month. - Although the previous period was the traditional peak season, high copper prices have to some extent suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. However, the demand side has strong resilience, and terminal demands such as power grids and new energy provide marginal increments. As the issue of supply shortages becomes a consensus, the downstream's acceptance of high copper prices is gradually increasing, and the medium - to - long - term supply - demand fundamentals provide solid support for the price center. - The strategy is to continue to focus on medium - term long positions, with the medium - term reference support range for Shanghai copper 2601 being 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Focus on medium - term long positions, with the medium - term reference support range for Shanghai copper 2601 being 83,500 - 84,000 yuan/ton [8] - **Macro**: In October, China's total goods trade import and export value was 3.7 trillion yuan, a 0.1% increase. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a 0.8% decrease, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a 1.4% increase, with imports having increased for 5 consecutive months. The US government shutdown set a record for the longest duration, and many important economic indicators lacked official data. According to economists' estimates, if the number of non - agricultural employment in October decreased by 60,000, the unemployment rate would rise to 4.5% [9] - **Supply**: Copper ore supply is tight, and the copper concentrate processing fee TC is deeply negative. It is expected that the 2026 long - term processing fee will be much lower than that in 2025. In November, 5 smelters are scheduled for maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. It is expected that November's electrolytic copper output will decline month - on - month [9] - **Demand**: High copper prices have suppressed downstream purchasing, but demand has resilience, and power grids and new energy provide marginal increments. The downstream's acceptance of high prices is increasing [9] - **Inventory**: LME copper futures inventory decreased slightly, while domestic social inventory slowly increased due to the suppression of high - price copper on downstream purchases [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets No specific analysis content provided, only figure names such as "Domestic Futures and Spot Prices", "Shanghai Flat - water Copper Premiums and Discounts", "LME Copper 3 - Month Forward Price", and "Shanghai - London Ratio" are mentioned [14][17] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Resource Distribution**: Global copper resources are mainly distributed in Chile, Peru, Australia, Russia, and Mexico. Chile has the largest copper reserves, accounting for 21.3%, while China's copper resources are relatively scarce, accounting for only 3% [23] - **Global Copper Capital Expenditure**: Long - term capital expenditure suppresses incremental supply. Old mines have declining grades and rising geopolitical risks, making stable production difficult. Optimistically, the global copper mine production increments in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 560,000, 1.28 million, and 470,000 tons respectively, with corresponding growth rates of about 2.5%, 5.6%, and 1.9%. Under neutral conditions, the supply growth rates in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are about 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% [24] - **Copper Concentrate**: As of November 7, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $42.00 per dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was $2,859 per dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In August 2025, the global copper concentrate output was 1.5328 million tons, and from January to August, it was 12.1509 million tons [29] - **Global Copper Production Distribution**: In 2023, major copper - producing countries included Chile, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Peru, etc. In 2024, the global copper mine production capacity reached 28.63 million tons, a 3.78% increase year - on - year, but the capacity utilization rate decreased from 82.20% in 2020 to 80.1% in 2024 [23][36] - **Copper Concentrate Imports and Inventory**: In September 2025, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.587 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year increase. From January to September, imports were 22.634 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. In the 45th week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 498,000 tons [39] - **Global Copper Supply - Demand and China's Smelting Break - even**: The global copper concentrate supply - demand balance is expected to show different situations in different years. China's electrolytic copper production and import data in 2024 and 2025 are also provided [41][46] - **International and Domestic Copper Inventories**: As of November 6, 2025, the LME inventory was 134,000 tons, and the New York market copper inventory reached 369,400 tons. The domestic social inventory was 202,600 tons, and the SHFE inventory fluctuated at a low level [59][60][63] 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: In September 2025, China's copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a 5.9% year - on - year increase. From January to September, the cumulative output was 18.575 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to September, the cumulative imports were 4.019 million tons, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative exports were 1.1428 million tons, a 10.9% year - on - year increase [69][73] - **Terminal Market - Power**: The national power grid project investment was 437.8 billion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year increase [77] - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [81] - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million vehicles respectively, a 13.3% and 12.9% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle production and sales were 11.243 million and 11.228 million vehicles respectively, a 35.2% and 34.9% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 46.1%. The total copper consumption of new energy vehicles and charging piles is expected to increase from 1.882 million tons in 2025 to 4.847 million tons in 2030 [85][88] - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In September 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 18.095 million units, a 3.0% year - on - year decrease. From January to September, the cumulative output was 216.571 million units, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, China exported 366.563 million home appliances, and from January to September, the cumulative exports were 3.359991 billion units, a 0.8% year - on - year increase [92] - **Terminal Market - New Energy**: As of the end of September, the national solar power generation installed capacity was 1.13 billion kilowatts, a 45.7% year - on - year increase, and the wind power installed capacity was 580 million kilowatts, a 21.3% year - on - year increase [96] - **Global Copper Downstream Consumption and Green Demand Forecast**: The new energy demand for copper is expected to enter a stage of "high base * normal growth rate = high increment". It is estimated that in 2025, the green demand for copper (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed the construction demand [100] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is expected that the global copper supply will still be slightly in surplus in 2025 but will decrease significantly compared to 2024. It is expected to be slightly in short supply in 2026 and the shortage will widen in 2027. The domestic supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the actual consumption growth rate of China's electrolytic copper in 2025 is expected to be 1.91% [107] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific analysis content provided.

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Copper prices are expected to oscillate upwards as they return to the logic of improved macro - atmosphere, strong medium - term fundamentals, and short - term high prices suppressing spot demand [10] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Copper prices rose, the US dollar index declined, and risk assets rose across the board. Shanghai copper reached 86,000, with total positions decreasing by 299 lots. Spot copper rose 660 to 85,995, and the premium rose to 30 [10] - Due to the rising copper prices, downstream buyers showed obvious fear of high prices. The social inventory in China increased by 0.32 tons this week compared with Monday, indicating weak short - term demand [10] - The LME0 - 3 contango widened to 38, the spot import loss was nearly 500 yuan/ton, and the trading volume of Yangshan copper was limited [10] Group 5: Industry News - There are rumors that Glencore plans to shut down the Horne smelter and CCR refinery in Canada. The two facilities have a combined annual output of over 300,000 tons of copper, accounting for about 17% of US imports. If the shutdown plan is implemented, it will exacerbate the global supply shortage [11] - Kenadyr Metals Corp. announced that its Adelita copper - gold - silver project has obtained all social, environmental, and exploration permits and a 20 - year mining license. The first - phase exploration plan will start in November [11] - On November 5, Zambia reopened its border with Tanzania, resuming the flow of goods on an important trade corridor. The average number of trucks cleared in each direction per day is 250 [11]

宏观面与产业面共振 目前伦铜处于历史高位，短线需谨防价格回落风险，美联储偏鹰表态或使多头了结意愿升温。但长期来 看，AI需求加持，铜价定价逻辑有望重塑，其价格中枢或将上移。 9月下旬以来，沪铜在宏观政策宽松预期与铜矿供应收缩担忧共同推动下，增仓上行趋势显著。进入10 月中旬，由于外围局势不稳，铜价高位震荡加剧。10月中下旬，随着市场风险偏好回暖，沪铜价格重拾 升势，并接连突破年内及近5年高点。然而，至10月底，美联储议息会议释放鹰派信号，叠加伦敦铜价 已处于高位，铜价出现阶段性冲高回落。 行业政策助力 从宏观环境来看，美联储已启动连续降息，全球货币政策也同步转向宽松周期，为铜价提供了有利金融 环境。历史经验表明，在降息周期尾声阶段，流动性环境改善与市场对经济复苏预期升温通常会形成共 振，往往能推动铜价走出趋势性上涨行情。当前全球仍处于降息前半程，这或许意味着未来铜价仍有较 大上行空间。 与此同时，我国持续推出的宏观稳增长政策，以及针对铜冶炼行业产能过剩问题推出的"遏制内卷"产业 政策，共同为铜价构筑了坚实的底部支撑。中国有色金属工业协会在10月底的新闻发布会上，正式建议 对铜、铅、锌等大宗金属设立产能"天花板 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the copper and aluminum industries, highlighting supply constraints and market dynamics affecting prices and profitability [1][2][3]. Key Points on Copper Industry - **Supply Constraints**: The copper supply is under pressure due to low capital expenditure willingness from mining companies, geopolitical risks, and rising resource protectionism, leading to tight raw material supply and strong support for copper prices [1][2][4]. - **Long-term Price Outlook**: The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive, supported by macroeconomic recovery and supply-side disruptions. The expected increase in copper mine output for 2025 has been revised down from 600,000 tons to a decrease of 23,000 tons year-on-year due to various disturbances [2][4]. - **Challenges for Mining Companies**: Mining companies face challenges such as low capital expenditure for new mines, high geopolitical risks, and resource protectionism policies in countries like Congo and Indonesia, which limit foreign investment [4]. Key Points on Aluminum Industry - **Market Performance**: The aluminum market has shown strength recently, driven by power shortages in developed countries, leading to production cuts at major facilities like Century Aluminum [6]. - **Price Dynamics**: The price of aluminum is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including U.S.-China trade talks and interest rate cuts, which have positively impacted market sentiment [6]. - **Future Demand Outlook**: The global aluminum market is expected to remain tight in 2026, with domestic capacity growth slowing and limited overseas increments. Optimism about demand is supported by fiscal and monetary easing in major economies [9]. Price Fluctuations and Market Trends - **2024 Price Fluctuations**: The price fluctuations of copper and aluminum in 2024 will be primarily driven by supply and demand dynamics, with a noted lack of significant substitution effects between the two metals [7]. - **Market Demand in October 2025**: The demand for non-ferrous metals in October 2025 is expected to improve compared to September, with a smooth destocking rhythm despite pressures from the rebound of the dollar index and U.S. political fluctuations [8]. Investment Insights - **Electrolytic Aluminum Stocks**: The electrolytic aluminum sector is viewed as having significant price elasticity in the short term and improved valuations in the medium term, with leading companies expected to maintain stable dividends [10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The valuation of electrolytic aluminum stocks has increased from a range of 8-10 times to over 12 times, reflecting a shift from traditional cyclical assets to high-quality scarce assets [10][11]. - **Stock Selection Strategy**: Investors are advised to focus on high elasticity and high dividend stocks, such as Yun Aluminum and Zhongfu Industry, while also considering companies with strong cost advantages and clear growth objectives [12]. Additional Considerations - **Profitability in Smelting Industry**: The smelting industry is currently facing low profitability, but there are signs of a potential rebound in processing fees (TC) due to limited further declines and efforts to maintain a healthy profit level [5]. - **Global Economic Factors**: The overall economic environment, including the recovery of manufacturing PMI and PPI, is expected to support demand for both copper and aluminum in the coming years [3][9].

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant price fluctuations driven by macroeconomic policies, supply concerns, and emerging demand from AI infrastructure, with potential for further price increases in the future [1][2][4]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The Federal Reserve has initiated a series of interest rate cuts, contributing to a global shift towards a loose monetary policy, which is favorable for copper prices [2]. - Historical trends indicate that during the latter stages of a rate-cutting cycle, improved liquidity and rising economic recovery expectations often lead to a significant upward trend in copper prices [2]. Group 2: Industry Policies - China's ongoing macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing growth, along with measures to address overcapacity in the copper smelting industry, are providing strong support for copper prices [3]. - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has proposed a capacity "ceiling" for major metals like copper, lead, and zinc to control new capacity and promote high-quality development, which is expected to strengthen the long-term price floor for copper [3]. - This policy is aligned with national goals for industry upgrading and sustainable development, promoting resource concentration towards leading companies [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Significant production disruptions at major global copper mines in Q3 have heightened supply concerns, leading to a downward revision of global copper production growth forecasts by the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) [4]. - The ICSG predicts a supply shortfall of approximately 150,000 tons in the global copper market by 2026, reversing previous expectations of oversupply [4]. - On the demand side, the rise of AI infrastructure is creating a transformative demand for copper, with AI servers consuming significantly more copper than traditional servers, although actual copper usage in AI remains limited and uncertain [4]. Group 4: Price Trends and Risks - Short-term risks of copper price declines are present, particularly with the London copper prices at historical highs and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve potentially increasing profit-taking among bulls [5]. - Current overseas copper inventories remain relatively high, which may exert pressure on short-term copper prices despite the upward momentum driven by AI demand [5]. - The narrative surrounding AI is shifting copper's perception from a traditional industrial metal to a strategic resource for the digital age, potentially leading to a long-term increase in its pricing structure [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated strongly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate supply shortage has not improved, TC fees hover in the negative range, and the firm ore price provides solid cost support for copper prices. Due to many smelting plants under maintenance and tight supply of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity is limited. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, shows signs of decline, affecting smelting profits and weakening production enthusiasm. Domestic refined copper supply may gradually shrink. High copper prices affect downstream purchasing strategies, and downstream buyers are pressing prices and maintaining just - in - time demand. Overall consumption is expected to improve, and downstream demand may be released as copper prices decline. In general, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of shrinking supply and gradually improving demand, with positive industry expectations and orderly inventory reduction. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.29, up 0.0104 month - on - month, indicating a bullish sentiment, and implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding. It is recommended to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 86,320 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,759 dollars/ton, up 61.5 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 211,098 lots, down 5,926 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 13,834 lots, down 182 lots; LME copper inventory was 133,975 tons, up 75 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 116,140 tons, up 11,348 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants were 10,650 tons, down 275 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 43,893 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 85,995 yuan/ton, up 660 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 85,865 yuan/ton, up 435 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 34 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 325 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) was - 38.37 dollars/ton, down 7.92 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 258.69 million tons, down 17.2 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 42.15 dollars/kiloton, up 0.55 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 76,160 yuan/metal ton, up 440 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan was 76,860 yuan/metal ton, up 440 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the processing fee for blister copper in the north was 900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 126.6 million tons, down 3.5 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 58,190 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 71,850 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 223.2 million tons, up 1 million tons. The cumulative value of investment in power grid infrastructure construction was 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949 pieces [2]. Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 18.16%, down 5.5%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.42%, up 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month was 15.27%, down 0.0033. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.29, up 0.0104 [2]. Industry News - In October, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%, with a penetration rate of 58.7%. The ADP employment in the US increased by 42,000 in October, the largest increase since July 2025, higher than the market expectation of 28,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in October was 52.4, the highest since February 2025. The US federal government shutdown has entered the 36th day, breaking the previous record. The Congressional Budget Office said it may reduce the Q4 economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. If the deadlock continues until Thanksgiving week, about 14 billion dollars in economic losses will be irrecoverable. The State Council will continue to suspend the 24% additional tariff on US imports for one year, retaining the 10% tariff rate. Premier Li Qiang said China will focus on high - quality development and promote high - level opening - up [2].

Core Viewpoint - China Dajie Nonferrous Metals (00661) has seen a nearly 20% increase in stock price, attributed to market reactions to global copper smelting industry challenges and domestic policy changes [1] Industry Summary - Glencore plans to close its copper smelting plant in Canada due to high environmental renovation costs and stringent regulations, reflecting ongoing profit declines in the global smelting industry [1] - The copper concentrate supply tightness has pressured processing fees, with spot market processing fees turning negative since last year, indicating smelters are incurring costs rather than receiving payments for processing [1] - Domestic smelting sector is experiencing positive developments against internal competition, with CSPT's third-quarter meeting reaching consensus on user BM systems and measures to prevent vicious competition [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has suggested establishing production capacity caps for major metals like copper, lead, and zinc, drawing from the experience in electrolytic aluminum [1] - According to Dongfang Securities, the expected implementation of "anti-involution" measures may slow the growth of midstream smelting capacity, potentially leading to an upward improvement in processing fees in the medium term [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Dajie Nonferrous Metals (00661) has seen a nearly 20% increase in stock price, attributed to market reactions to global smelting industry challenges and domestic policy changes [1] Industry Summary - Glencore plans to close its copper smelting plant in Canada due to high environmental renovation costs and stringent regulations, reflecting ongoing profit declines in the global smelting industry [1] - The smelting industry is facing pressure as copper concentrate supply tightens, leading to negative processing fees in the spot market since last year, meaning smelters are incurring costs rather than receiving payments for processing [1] - Domestic smelting sector is experiencing positive developments against internal competition, with recent agreements from CSPT to implement user BM systems and prevent malicious competition [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association has suggested establishing production capacity ceilings for major metals like copper, lead, and zinc, drawing from experiences in the electrolytic aluminum sector [1] - According to Dongfang Securities, the expected implementation of "anti-involution" measures may slow the growth of midstream smelting capacity, indicating potential upward improvement in processing fees in the medium term [1]