Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future outlook of the copper smelting industry in China, highlighting production capacity, profitability challenges, and potential policy changes aimed at regulating the industry [2][5][6]. Production - In 2024, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to reach 13.64 million tons, accounting for 59% of global primary electrolytic copper production, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% since 2004 [3]. - The top ten companies in the copper smelting sector hold approximately 76% of the market share, with major producers including Jiangxi Copper (2.29 million tons), Tongling Nonferrous (1.77 million tons), and Jinchuan Group (1.33 million tons) [3]. Expansion - As of June 2025, the smelting operating rate is around 86%, with 2.98 million tons of production capacity yet to be put into operation. The annualized capacity for June 2025 is estimated at 15.88 million tons [4]. Profitability - The processing fee (TC/RC) has dropped significantly, with the spot price as of July 18, 2025, at -$43.2 per ton, marking a historical low. The long-term processing fee has also fallen to $0 per ton, forcing smelting companies to rely on by-products like sulfuric acid for profitability [5]. - If sulfuric acid prices decline further, smelting companies may face potential losses due to the lack of processing fee income [5]. Policy Implications - The implementation of "anti-involution" policies in the copper industry could limit new smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of smaller smelting operations. This may alleviate the current overcapacity and improve future profitability for smelting companies, especially as downstream consumption continues to grow due to sectors like renewable energy and grid upgrades [6].

Group 1: Internet Media - Google's advertising revenue exceeded expectations in Q2 2025, indicating overall active economic activity in the U.S. and alleviating concerns about AI's impact on traditional search engine advertising [2] - Google Cloud's revenue and profitability were strong, leading to an upward revision of the annual capital expenditure guidance, with AI demand continuing to outstrip supply [2] - The full-stack AI industry chain comprising data centers, ASICs, algorithms, and products gives Google a solid and differentiated advantage in the AI field, suggesting continued attention is warranted [2] Group 2: Petrochemicals - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to launch a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry, which is expected to promote the elimination of outdated capacity and lead to healthier industry development [3] - Key companies to watch include: in the soda ash sector, Boyuan Chemical, Shandong Haihua, China Salt Chemical, and Shuanghuan Technology; in the PVC sector, Xinjiang Tianye, Sanyou Chemical, and Chlor-alkali Chemical [3] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals - The recent Central Financial Committee's emphasis on legally governing low-price disorderly competition is expected to facilitate the orderly exit of outdated capacity in the copper smelting industry [4] - If the "anti-involution" theme is implemented, it may limit new copper smelting capacity and accelerate the exit of small smelting capacities, leading to improved profitability for smelting enterprises [4] - Companies to focus on include Tongling Nonferrous Metals, China Daye Nonferrous Metals, Jiangxi Copper, and Yunnan Copper [4] Group 4: Construction - The commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station is expected to generate new demand for construction and materials [5] - Recommended companies include China Power Construction, China Energy Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway, along with material suppliers like Huaxin Cement and Tibet Tianlu [5] Group 5: Pharmaceuticals - The precise adjustment of medical insurance policies is reshaping the pharmaceutical industry ecosystem, with the "anti-involution" in procurement clearing low-quality capacity and creating market space for quality enterprises [6] - Focus on two types of companies: those that continue to be selected in procurement with dual advantages in quality and cost, and innovative drug companies with rich R&D pipelines [6] - Recommended companies include Heng Rui Medicine, Jingxin Pharmaceutical, and Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical, with attention to MicroPort Medical, Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical, and Fangsheng Pharmaceutical [6] Group 6: Automotive - Tesla's Q2 2025 performance showed a recovery, with a shift in focus towards AI-driven initiatives like Robotaxi and humanoid robots [8] - Due to uncertainties in overseas policies and market sales, the 2025E/2026E/2027E Non-GAAP net profit estimates have been adjusted to $6.06 billion, $8.77 billion, and $11.28 billion respectively [8] - Tesla's leading position in AI technology iteration and commercialization capabilities remains a positive outlook [8] Group 7: Internet Literature - The online reading business of the report's subject company remains stable, but revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised down to 7.39 billion, 7.95 billion, and 8.14 billion yuan due to uncertainties in new series and adjustments in short drama revenue recognition [9] - The company's proprietary profit continues to improve, supported by the strong performance of new businesses like short dramas and IP derivatives [9] - The full-year performance growth remains highly certain, with adjusted net profit forecasts of 1.35 billion, 1.53 billion, and 1.66 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that although the domestic anti - involution measures have little impact on copper, the market sentiment is still bullish. The hydropower project brings an optimistic outlook for downstream demand, and the US dollar has weakened in the past two days, so the copper market is bullish. As the tariff implementation date approaches, attention should be paid to the tariff situation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 18, the State Council Information Office announced a new round of non - ferrous metal stability and growth plan. On July 19, the hydropower project on the lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan and a construction period of about 20 years [1]. - As of July 18, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.16 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.31 cents/pound. The smelting and refining fees of smelters have stabilized and rebounded this week. A smelter has a maintenance plan in July, involving a refining capacity of 150,000 tons, with limited impact on refined copper production. SMM expects the domestic electrolytic copper output in July to increase by 15,500 tons month - on - month, an increase of 1.37% [1]. - In the international market, the copper transportation and export channels in Peru have resumed. As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, an increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30% compared with the previous month. The downstream is in a relative off - season, with weak trading sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed low, showing a strong intraday trend, closing at 79,740. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 5,691 to 115,331 lots, and the short positions increased by 8,043 to 113,776 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 150 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 10 yuan/ton. On July 21, 2025, the LME official price was 9,843 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 69.5 dollars/ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 28,200 tons, a decrease of 10,100 tons from the previous period. As of July 21, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,100 tons, an increase of 1,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,100 tons, a slight decrease of 100 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 243,400 short tons, an increase of 1,023 short tons from the previous period [8].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 0.69%, 2.04%, and 3.17% respectively as of July 18, marking a new high for the year for the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The market is shifting from a "blue-chip dominance" to a "blue-chip and growth resonance," indicating that the activity of growth stocks may attract more incremental capital, providing momentum for the continuation of the market trend [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metals sector led the market, with strong performances from lithium and rare earth stocks. Several gold industry listed companies forecast positive earnings for the first half of 2025, with Zijin Mining expecting a year-on-year net profit increase of approximately 54%, marking its best first-half performance since listing [4] - Silver prices have risen significantly, with a year-to-date increase of about 35%, surpassing gold's 28.87% rise, making silver one of the best-performing asset classes this year. International investment banks have raised silver price forecasts due to structural supply shortages and strong investment demand [4] - The non-ferrous metals industry is expected to enter a new upward cycle, supported by a recovering global economy and a declining dollar, with investment opportunities in this sector remaining favorable [4] - The outlook for silver remains bullish in the short term due to dual drivers from precious metals and commodity attributes, with a long-term positive view maintained amid factors like dollar and U.S. Treasury value adjustments and rising demand from new energy sectors [5]

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - In the first half of the year, copper prices experienced two significant upward trends, starting with a rise due to a weakening US dollar, followed by a sharp decline influenced by tariff policies, and then a recovery to stabilize around 78,500 yuan/ton [1] - The market is expected to focus on macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy, with limited negative impact from tariff policies on the macro market [2] Group 2: Supply and Refining Dynamics - New copper mines such as Sierra Gorda and Toromocho are set to commence production mid-year, but the global supply of copper concentrate remains tight [3] - Domestic smelting plants are anticipated to undergo a peak maintenance period from September to November, which will likely tighten the domestic spot market and elevate copper prices [3] Group 3: End-User Consumption - Cable manufacturing has shown a recovery in operating rates, but rising copper prices are exerting production pressure on these companies [4] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see a seasonal production increase in the second half of the year, while the automotive sector is projected to experience a production boost starting in July [4] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be driven by fundamentals, with supply and demand exhibiting a synergistic effect, leading to a potential upward trend [4]

Group 1: Industry Innovation and Growth - The commercial aerospace industry in Beijing has surpassed a scale of 260 billion yuan, with the production of medium-sized commercial satellites occurring every three days by Galaxy Aerospace [1] - Guangdong's industrial robot production reached over 240,000 units last year, marking a year-on-year growth of 31.2%, accounting for 44% of the national market [1] - In Anhui, the production of new energy vehicles doubled compared to two years ago, with 467,000 units produced from January to May this year [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The Guangdong Aerospace Technology Research Institute developed a single-person jetpack capable of reaching speeds of 100 km/h, suitable for various applications including emergency rescue [3] - Anhui is establishing ten provincial future industry pilot zones focusing on quantum technology, aerospace information, and general intelligence, with over 100 key enterprises in the first quarter of this year [4] - The use of flexible solar wings in satellites by Galaxy Aerospace has reduced thickness to 1/20 of rigid solar wings, enhancing energy absorption [7] Group 3: Future Industry Development - Beijing has identified 23 future industry development directions, including general artificial intelligence and the metaverse, with over 2,400 AI companies and a core industry scale of nearly 350 billion yuan [5] - The establishment of a 10 billion yuan angel fund in Guangzhou supports technology transfer and innovation, with over 1,100 direct investment projects reserved [3] - Anhui's strategic emerging industries have seen an average annual growth of 16.1% since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with the output value accounting for 43.6% of industrial output [8] Group 4: Traditional Industry Transformation - The Beijing Economic and Technological Development Zone has implemented intelligent infrastructure across 600 square kilometers, facilitating the transition to high-end manufacturing [9] - The application of 5G technology in the Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group has led to a 90% automation rate in production lines [10] - Guangdong has created 490 national green factories and aims for a 2.8% reduction in energy consumption for industrial units by 2024 [11]

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. is a significant player in China's nonferrous metal industry and a globally recognized giant, known for its innovative path towards modern industrial development in harmony with nature [2]. Group 1: Historical Development - The establishment of Tongling Nonferrous began with the first national nonferrous metal conference in 1949, leading to the development of the Tongguanshan copper mine, which was initially a wasteland [3]. - During the early years, the average annual production of crude copper at Tongguanshan increased by 72.3%, and industrial output value grew by 117.1% during the First Five-Year Plan [3]. - By the 1990s, the company became one of Asia's largest electrolytic copper producers, achieving significant technological innovations and winning national awards for its proprietary technologies [4]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The company has implemented advanced technologies and management practices, significantly enhancing production efficiency and product quality [4]. - The production process for high-purity cathode copper involves multiple steps, including crushing, flotation, smelting, and electrolysis, with a purity level exceeding 99.95% [6]. - The integration of internet and artificial intelligence technologies allows for real-time data management and process monitoring, improving production quality control [6][7]. Group 3: Market Position and Product Development - The rapid growth of green industries, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, has driven demand for high-purity copper products, with electric vehicles requiring over 20 kilograms of copper foil for battery packs [7]. - The company has developed ultra-thin copper foils and other high-value products, breaking foreign monopolies in the high-frequency and high-speed substrate copper foil market [8]. - Tongling Nonferrous is expanding its product range to include copper-based new materials, forming a complete industrial chain from electrolytic copper to various copper products [8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance its core competitiveness and resource security while solidifying its leading position in the copper smelting industry [9]. - There is a focus on innovation-driven development, with increased investment in research and development for high-end copper-based new materials [9].

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, under the backdrop of tight raw material supply and volatile market prices, the company is implementing a strategic transformation guided by the "accounting management" concept, promoting integrated operations in procurement, production, and sales, and achieving significant results in its copper smelting system [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Transformation - The company is focusing on increasing production and efficiency by shifting employee attention from merely output to comprehensive cost, energy consumption, and key performance indicators [1] - The "accounting management" concept is being integrated throughout the entire production and operational chain, with various levels of accounting being conducted to optimize production organization and control consumption [1] Group 2: Budget Management and Cost Analysis - A mechanism of "daily statistics, weekly reports, and monthly analysis" has been established to enhance budget management and cost analysis, allowing for timely identification of deviations from production and budget [2] - The company has revised nearly 200 workshop-level assessment criteria to create a three-in-one management system of "indicators - responsibilities - assessments," making unit cost accounting more operational [2] Group 3: Employee Engagement and Incentives - The company has introduced a mid-to-long-term incentive model for frontline teams, adding different project contribution scores to promote a more scientific and reasonable compensation structure, thereby enhancing employee motivation [2] - Each position has operational indicators for assessment, fostering a strong atmosphere of cost control participation among all employees [2] Group 4: Technological Advancements - The year 2025 marks a pivotal year for the intelligent factory construction in the copper smelting system, with the upcoming automation of the copper warehouse production process led by robotic arms and automated cranes [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Overseas copper mines face disruptions in production or transportation. However, due to the Trump administration's substantial tariff hikes on multiple countries and the onset of the traditional off - season for domestic consumption, the global electrolytic copper inventory is accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. It is recommended that investors hold short positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,090 yuan, down 310 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, up 2,530 lots; the open interest was 169,930 lots, down 2,274 lots; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper inventory was 50,133 tons, up 15,754 tons, and the average price was 77,995 yuan, down 460 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 14, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,643.5 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 110,475 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was - 62.07 dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was - 124.71 dollars. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio on July 15 was 8.0977, down 0.031 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.5165 dollars, down 0.07 dollars; the total inventory was 238,264 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Macroeconomic Information - The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to 500 billion and 50 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively through increasing the weekly benchmark bond auction size. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than expected, and the CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, which was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [3]. Upstream Situation - The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative but has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, decreased) compared to last week. High - quality scrap copper exports are restricted, and the spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper more economical, opening the scrap copper import window. Some overseas copper mines and smelters have production disruptions, while some domestic projects are in progress or planned to be put into production [3]. Downstream Situation - The daily processing fee of copper rods for power and cable in East China has decreased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of some copper product industries has changed, with some expected to decline and some to increase. Domestic electrolytic copper holders have no inventory pressure and are reluctant to sell at low prices, while downstream buyers mainly make purchases for immediate needs or long - term contracts [3]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to hold short positions and pay attention to support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 78,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 80,000 - 81,000 yuan for resistance; London copper at 9,300 - 9,500 dollars for support and 9,800 - 10,000 dollars for resistance; COMEX copper at 5.0 - 6.2 dollars for support and 6.0 - 7.0 dollars for resistance [3].