转自：前瞻产业研究院 新增粗炼和精炼产能规模扩大 根据上海有色网的数据，2024年新增粗炼产能61万吨，新增精炼产能102万吨;2025年新增粗炼产能135 万吨，新增精炼产能125万吨。 以下数据及分析来自于前瞻产业研究院铜冶炼研究小组发布的《全球及中国铜冶炼行业发展前景展望与 投资机遇分析报告》。 铜冶炼行业主要上市公司：江西铜业(600362.SH)、铜陵有色(000630.SZ)、云南铜业(000878.SZ)、中国 大冶有色金属(00661.HK)、紫金矿业(601899.SH)、西部矿业(601168.SH)、白银有色(601212.SH)、洛阳 钼业(603993.SH)、中金黄金(600489.SH)、鹏欣资源(600490.SH)等 本文核心数据：铜冶炼企业产能排名、铜冶炼新增产能情况汇总、铜现货年均价行情 江西铜业铜冶炼产能位居全国榜首 根据ICSG的数据和企业公报的数据显示，截至2024年，江西铜业铜冶炼产能排名全国首位，达到了238 万吨;其次为铜陵有色，铜冶炼产能为170万吨;金川集团排名第三，铜冶炼产能为149.5万吨。 | 222 | 新增粗炼产能 | 新增精炼产能 | 原料 | ...

证券日报网讯1月27日，北方铜业（000737）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司每年生产金锭约6 吨、银锭约60吨，全部对外销售。 ...

格隆汇1月26日丨铜陵有色(000630.SZ)公布股票交易异常波动公告，公司目前生产经营情况正常，公司 内部经营环境未发生重大变化。近期，公司主产品中阴极铜、黄金、白银等产品的市场价格累计涨幅较 大，铜精矿加工费低位运行。截至本公告披露日，米拉多铜矿二期工程正式投产的时间尚不确定，预计 将对公司2026年的经营业绩产生一定影响，具体内容请见公司于2026年1月5日在指定信息披露媒体上披 露的《关于控股子公司项目延期的公告》。 ...

格隆汇1月26日丨铜陵有色(000630.SZ)公布股票交易异常波动公告，公司目前生产经营情况正常，公司 内部经营环境未发生重大变化。近期，公司主产品中阴极铜、黄金、白银等产品的市场价格累计涨幅较 大，铜精矿加工费低位运行。截至本公告披露日，米拉多铜矿二期工程正式投产的时间尚不确定，预计 将对公司2026年的经营业绩产生一定影响，具体内容请见公司于2026年1月5日在指定信息披露媒体上披 露的《关于控股子公司项目延期的公告》。 登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the development prospects and investment opportunities in the global and Chinese copper smelting industry, highlighting key policies and industry trends [1]. Policy Evolution - The evolution of copper smelting policies in China has transitioned from increasing production capacity and scale to optimizing structure and promoting green and efficient practices, as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2]. - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the exploration and development of strategic mineral resources, with copper being a key focus due to its high external dependence and importance to supply chain security [2]. National Policy Summary and Interpretation - A summary of key national policies related to the copper smelting industry indicates a focus on technological upgrades and energy efficiency improvements, with various policies introduced since 1985 aimed at modernizing smelting techniques [5][6]. - As of November 2025, several significant policies have been outlined, including energy-saving measures and the promotion of recycling and clean production standards [6][7]. Development Goals - By 2027, the copper industry aims to enhance supply chain resilience and security, with domestic copper resource growth targeted at 5%-10% and increased recycling rates [9][10]. - By 2035, the industry aspires to achieve world-leading levels in supply chain capabilities, technological innovation, and overall competitiveness [9][10]. Provincial Policy Summary and Interpretation - The copper smelting industry is increasingly concentrated in coastal and resource-rich regions, with provinces like Fujian and Guangxi emerging as new key players alongside traditional bases [10]. - Each province has tailored its policies to align with national directives, focusing on local needs and conditions to support the development of the copper smelting sector [10][12]. Specific Provincial Policies - Jiangxi's policy includes support for building national-level copper material clusters and promoting high-value recycling of copper [12]. - Anhui's initiatives focus on controlling blind expansion of copper smelting capacity and promoting low-carbon technologies [12]. - Shandong aims to enhance energy efficiency in copper smelting through technological upgrades and process improvements [12]. - Gansu's strategy includes developing a world-class copper new materials processing base and enhancing resource security through exploration [12][14].

其并称，即使每吨300美元以上的高升水也无法抵消TC/RC的下降影响。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 刘明康 日本矿业协会（JMIA）负责人周四表示，日本铜冶炼厂仍在与全球矿商谈判2026年的加工和精炼费用（TC/RC）。 矿商为将精矿转化为精炼金属而支付的TC/RC费用面临压力，因为全球冶炼产能扩张速度超过了矿山供应，挤压了冶炼厂的利润空间。 JMIA主席Tetsuya Tanaka在新闻发布会上表示，日本冶炼厂在谈判中强调了他们的价值主张，包括可追溯性和降低环境风险。 然而，他表示"谈判显然很艰难"，进展尚不清楚，他不能太乐观。 liumingkang@smm.cn 156 5309 0867 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly declined, narrowing smelter profits and weakening spot processing fees. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. Last week, the Shanghai copper price corrected, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases to fulfill historical orders. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increasing losses of smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper, but both upstream and downstream are cautious, and raw material procurement is poor. In January, refined copper production is expected to decline. On the demand side, downstream copper purchasing sentiment is low, leading to a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, but subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year small peak season are expected to improve production and sales. The short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend. The US dollar index has dropped significantly, and market risk - aversion sentiment has pushed up non - ferrous metals, causing Shanghai copper to rise. The long - term fundamentals are in a tight - balance structure, and it is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, with attention on the short - term impact of the macro - environment on copper [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Shanghai copper opened and closed higher today. Since 2026, smelter profits have narrowed, and spot processing fees have weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. In January, refined copper production is expected to decline. Downstream copper purchasing sentiment is low, and the new - energy market performs poorly in the short - term. The US dollar index dropped on January 17, pushing up non - ferrous metals and causing Shanghai copper to rise. The long - term fundamentals are in a tight - balance structure, and it is bullish in the medium - to - long - term [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed higher today. Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 100 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 160 yuan/ton. On January 19, 2026, the LME official price is 12871 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is + 129 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3. Supply Side - As of January 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.80 cents/pound [5] 3.4. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 148,200 tons, a decrease of 4462 tons from the previous period. As of January 15, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 105,600 tons, a decrease of 5400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 147,400 tons, an increase of 3850 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 542,900 short tons, an increase of 4197 short tons from the previous period [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth and operational strategies of Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. in the copper smelting industry, emphasizing its revenue achievements and production capabilities. Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 145.53 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.88%, with a net profit of 2.81 billion yuan, up by 4.05% [1] - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues and net profits of 76.08 billion yuan and 1.44 billion yuan, respectively [1] Group 2: Business Layout and Operations - Tongling Nonferrous integrates mining, selection, smelting, and processing in its copper industry, with a complete system and a strong development in modern service industries [2] - The company employs two main operational models: self-mining and external procurement for smelting, producing cathode copper for sale [2] Group 3: Sales Distribution - The sales of refined copper primarily target regions such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Shanghai, Hubei, Shandong, and Henan, with some exports [6][8] - In the first half of 2025, the company generated 56.73 billion yuan in revenue from the East China region, accounting for 74.56% of total revenue [8] Group 4: Production Trends - From 2018 to 2023, the production and sales of cathode copper showed an upward trend, with a production of 1.7563 million tons in 2023, a 7.83% increase from 2022 [10] - The production is expected to reach 1.7681 million tons in 2024, while sales are projected to slightly decline to 1.7576 million tons [10] Group 5: Future Development Plans - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and cost control while focusing on both traditional and emerging industries [11] - Strategies include improving production processes, managing risks related to sulfuric acid prices, and advancing automation and smart factory initiatives [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - face expectation is repeated but relatively stable. The raw material supply is tight, and the smelting end has disturbance expectations, with strong support on the supply side. Terminal consumption may improve, but the current supply - demand is weak, and domestic inventory is accumulating rapidly. In the short - to - medium term, after the rapid price increase, consumption is inhibited, and prices may experience a significant correction. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disturbance concerns remains unchanged. After the market sentiment stabilizes, opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel can be considered. In the long - term, there is still an expectation of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and the supply of copper, aluminum, and tin is still subject to disturbances, with an expectation of tightening supply - demand, and the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: The US December CPI data is in line with expectations; China's copper smelter has set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee at 0; China's electrolytic copper production in December increased both month - on - month and year - on - year; the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper on January 19 showed a slight improvement; a Chilean copper mine will go on strike, and a copper mine in Ecuador has postponed its production. - **Main Logic**: The Fed may continue to be loose, providing support for copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the supply of refined copper is expected to shrink. Although the terminal demand is weak and inventory is increasing, the long - term supply - demand is expected to be optimistic. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [7][8]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are weak, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the spot prices in different regions showed different trends, and the alumina warehouse receipts increased. - **Main Logic**: The macro sentiment amplifies the price fluctuations. The supply contraction is insufficient, the cost support is weak, but the price may fluctuate more due to more capital attention. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [8][9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased, the warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum increased, the Japanese port aluminum ingot premium increased, and the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased month - on - month in December 2025. - **Main Logic**: The macro expectation is positive. The domestic production capacity is high, and the overseas new project progress is uncertain. The high price suppresses demand, but overall, the short - term price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Short - term: oscillating upward; medium - term: the price center is expected to rise [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Cost support continues, and the market fluctuates at a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the price of ADC12 was flat, the average price of SMM AOO decreased, the warehouse receipts decreased, and an Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started production. - **Main Logic**: The cost support is strong. The supply is restricted by raw materials and policies, and the demand is expected to improve. The inventory shows different trends. The short - term price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Short - term and medium - term: oscillating upward [14][15]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector cools down, and zinc prices fall from a high level. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the premium of zinc in different regions varied; the inventory of zinc ingots increased; LME no longer accepts the delivery of certain zinc brands. - **Main Logic**: The macro expectation is stable. The supply of zinc ore is still tight in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term price may oscillate at a high level, but there is a downward pressure in the long - term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [17][18]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: The sentiment in the non - ferrous sector cools down and the social inventory increases, so lead prices are under pressure. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, the price of lead ingots decreased, the social inventory increased, and LME no longer accepts the delivery of a certain lead brand. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium is stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate. - **Outlook**: Oscillating [19][20]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The expected policy competes with the weak reality, and nickel prices fluctuate. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai nickel decreased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased; an Indonesian nickel company resumed production, and Indonesia may approve a certain amount of nickel ore production quota. - **Main Logic**: The supply pressure is high, the demand is in the off - season, and the policy on nickel ore quota is uncertain. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [20][22][23]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The price of nickel iron continues to rise, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates. - **Information Analysis**: The warehouse receipts of stainless - steel futures are unchanged, the spot price has a certain premium, the price of high - nickel pig iron increases, and the price of Indonesian domestic trade ore is expected to rise. - **Main Logic**: The cost support exists, the production may increase slightly, the demand is cautious, and the inventory may accumulate. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [24][25]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: The market competition intensifies, and tin prices adjust. - **Information Analysis**: On January 19, the LME tin warehouse receipts increased, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipts decreased, and the position decreased; the spot price of tin decreased. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is disturbed, the production is difficult to increase, and the demand is growing. The price is expected to be oscillating upward. - **Outlook**: Oscillating upward [25][26][27]. 3.2行情监测 3.2.1 Commodity Indexes - The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on January 19, 2026: The commodity index is 2417.77, up 0.01%; the commodity 20 index is 2779.78, up 0.20%; the industrial products index is 2316.27, down 0.28%. - The non - ferrous metal index on January 19, 2026 is 2799.05, with a daily increase of 0.04%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.36%, a monthly increase of 9.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.21% [152][153][155].

Core Viewpoint - Northern Copper Industry announced the approval of a proposal to engage in commodity futures hedging business, focusing on copper, gold, and silver futures contracts [1] Group 1: Company Announcement - The company will hold its 10th Board of Directors' 7th meeting on January 16, 2026, to review the proposal [1] - The proposal includes a maximum margin investment of RMB 700 million, which can be reused within this limit [1] - The proposal is subject to approval by the company's shareholders' meeting [1]