Core Viewpoint - In the first half of 2025, lithium carbonate futures experienced fluctuations, with prices expected to maintain a volatile downward trend in the second half due to supply surplus and demand challenges [1] Price Trends - In Q1 2025, lithium carbonate futures prices were stable, initially rising from 77,800 CNY/ton to 81,680 CNY/ton (an increase of 4.99%) before falling back to 74,160 CNY/ton [1] - In Q2, prices dropped significantly from 74,500 CNY/ton to 58,460 CNY/ton (a decrease of 21.53%) due to declining demand amid the US-China tariff conflict [1] - Key price movements included a drop of over 10% from 81,680 CNY/ton to around 73,000 CNY/ton in early 2025, and a near 20% decline from 73,000 CNY/ton to 58,460 CNY/ton in April-May [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is expected to remain oversupplied, with a projected total supply of 1.65 million tons of LCE in the second half of 2025 [1] - Demand is primarily driven by the growth in electric vehicles and energy storage, with an estimated 16.5 million new energy vehicles expected to be sold in China and 23 million globally in 2025 [1] - The overall lithium carbonate consumption growth rate is projected to be around 22% for the year [1] Inventory Levels - Inventory levels increased from a low of 136,800 tons in January to 136,800 tons by the end of June, primarily due to rising inventories at smelting plants [1] - Downstream inventory growth has been modest compared to the beginning of the year, remaining stable at 30,000 to 40,000 tons [1] Strategic Recommendations - Lithium salt manufacturers are advised to consider hedging opportunities, while downstream companies may opt for spot purchasing [1] - Speculators are encouraged to short-sell during price peaks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On June 19, 2025, the 2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures fell 0.17% to 60,060 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 60,450 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 58,850 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 250 yuan/ton to 59,170 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) dropped 250 yuan/ton to 64,320 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 10 tons to 29,957 tons [4]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 335 tons to 18,462 tons, with the increase mainly from lithium extraction from spodumene. Lithium extraction from lepidolite and salt lakes increased slightly, while lithium extraction from recycling decreased slightly. The supply in June showed a significant month - on - month growth rate. On the demand side, the actual consumption of lithium carbonate increased slightly month - on - month. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased by 1,352 tons to 134,901 tons, with upstream inventory increasing by 972 tons to 58,265 tons, downstream inventory decreasing by 320 tons to 40,366 tons, and intermediate inventory increasing by 700 tons to 35,910 tons. Currently, there are no new production suspension or reduction actions at the mine end, and the oversupply situation will expand in June. Also, the price of lithium ore lags behind. If the price of lithium salt rises rapidly, production and hedging incentives will emerge again, putting pressure on prices [4]. - The current price is basically at the stage - bottom range. The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the price may be affected by capital fluctuations, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - The report presents the price changes of various products in the lithium - battery industry chain from June 18 to June 19, 2025, including futures, lithium ores, lithium carbonates, lithium hydroxides, lithium hexafluorophosphate, etc. For example, the main contract closing price of futures increased by 180 yuan/ton to 60,060 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 52,150 yuan/ton [6]. - It also shows price differences such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate. For instance, the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 250 yuan/ton to - 1,280 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Chart Analysis 3.2.1 Ore Prices - Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores such as spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China), lepidolite (with different Li₂O contents), and lithiophilite (with different Li₂O contents) from 2024 to 2025 [7][9]. 3.2.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [13][15][17]. 3.2.3 Price Differences - Charts present the price differences between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [20][22]. 3.2.4 Precursor & Cathode Materials - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [24][27][30]. 3.2.5 Lithium Battery Prices - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.2.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from October 31, 2024, to June 19, 2025 [38][40]. 3.2.7 Production Costs - The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate from 2024 to 2025 [42]. 3.3 Research Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience and many awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on aluminum and silicon research and has made contributions to risk management for listed companies [47]. - Zhu Xi, a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on lithium and nickel research and the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract fell 0.16% to 60,700 yuan/ton, while the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 60,250 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 50 yuan/ton to 58,650 yuan/ton. The price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) decreased by 420 yuan/ton to 61,700 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) fell 415 yuan/ton to 66,850 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 190 tons to 33,119 tons [3]. - The lithium ore price showed signs of stopping falling last Friday. On the supply side, the weekly output increased month-on-month, and the supply growth rate in June was significant. On the demand side, there was no obvious increase in the preliminary production scheduling data of each company. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory increased again, with a slight decrease in the downstream and an increase in the upstream and intermediate links. Overall, the current mining end has no new production cuts, and the oversupply situation will further expand in June. If the lithium salt price strengthens rapidly, production and hedging incentives will reappear, putting pressure on the price. Currently, the lithium ore inventory has been digested to a certain extent [3]. - The current price level is basically at the stage bottom range, with intensified long-short games. The price may be disturbed by funds, but there is no inflection point in the actual fundamentals. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt situation [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - The price changes of lithium carbonate futures, spot, and lithium hydroxide, as well as the decrease in warehouse receipt inventory [3]. - The supply, demand, and inventory situation of lithium ore, and the potential impact on price [3]. - The current price level and the need to focus on warehouse receipt conditions [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The price changes of various products in the lithium battery industry chain, including futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other materials, as well as the price differences between different products [5]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Ore Price - Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5%-2.0%, 2.0%-2.5%), and phospho-lithium-aluminum stone (6%-7%, 7%-8%) [6][8]. 3.2 Lithium and Lithium Salt Price - Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery-grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial-grade lithium carbonate average price, battery-grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial-grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price [11][13][15]. 3.3 Spread - Charts present the price differences between battery-grade lithium hydroxide and battery-grade lithium carbonate, battery-grade lithium carbonate and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, CIF Japan-Korea battery-grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery-grade lithium hydroxide, and other spreads, as well as the basis [17][20][22]. 3.4 Precursor & Cathode Material - Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, as well as the prices of lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and lithium cobalt oxide [25][27][29]. 3.5 Lithium Battery Price - Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary battery cells, square lithium iron phosphate battery cells, cobalt acid battery cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries [31][33]. 3.6 Inventory - Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links [36][38]. 3.7 Production Cost - The chart presents the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as外购三元极片黑粉, 外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉, lithium mica concentrate, and lithium spodumene concentrate [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental situation of the lithium carbonate market remains weak. However, as the price of lithium carbonate continues to decline, the probability of supply - side disturbances and short - position profit - taking will increase, leading to potential sharp fluctuations in the recent market. The short - term oscillation range is between 58,000 and 63,000 [4]. - In the second quarter, the pattern of oversupply in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue, with no obvious growth in demand - side production scheduling. The supply - side output shows no significant improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de - stocking process. The current main contradiction in the market is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually being transmitted to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Volatility - The pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 25.1% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 29.9% [2]. - Regarding the daily changes of lithium carbonate futures: the closing price of the main contract is 60,380, with a daily decrease of 540 and a daily decline rate of - 0.89%, and a year - on - year decrease of - 42.50%; the trading volume of the main contract is 388,140, with a daily decrease of 4,329 and a daily decline rate of - 1.10%, and a year - on - year increase of 238.09%; the open interest of the main contract is 283,607, with a daily decrease of 10,008 and a daily decline rate of - 3.43%, and a year - on - year increase of 66.32% [9]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When the company's product inventory is high and there is a risk of inventory impairment, it can short lithium carbonate futures (LC2508) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 2; sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 60% and a strategy level of 3; buy out - of - the - money put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a strategy level of 2 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the company has a future production plan and there is a risk of rising production raw material prices, it can buy far - month lithium carbonate contracts according to the production plan to lock in procurement costs, with a strategy level of 1 - 3; sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options); buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) with a strategy level of 1 [2]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - Positive macro - policies may stimulate the growth of power demand by supporting enterprises in robotics, low - altitude economy, and AI [6]. - As the prices of lithium ore and lithium salt continue to decline, the probability of upstream ore mines and lithium salt plants suspending production for maintenance will increase [6]. - The easing of Sino - US competition leads to an expected "90 - day" rush for exports and a passive de - stocking expectation in the market [6]. - The open interest is at a high level, and short - position profit - taking may cause the market to rebound [6]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - The future production capacity expansion expectation of lithium ore remains high, and inventory suppresses ore prices. If ore prices further loosen, it will drag down the cost of lithium carbonate [5]. - Both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are at high levels and still in an accumulation trend [7]. - Industrial technology upgrades and iterations have postponed the clearance of high - cost production capacity [7]. 3.4 Spot and Related Price Information - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 61,500, with a daily decrease of 500 and a daily decline rate of - 0.81%; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 59,900, with a daily decrease of 500 and a daily decline rate of - 0.83%; the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide is 63,970, with a daily decrease of 250 and a daily decline rate of - 0.39%; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide is 57,950, with a daily decrease of 250 and a daily decline rate of - 0.43%; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.4 dollars per kilogram, with no daily change [11]. - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,600 yuan per ton, with no daily change; the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 2,470 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 250 and a daily increase rate of 11.26%; the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea and the domestic price is - 3,579.04 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 265.12 and a daily decline rate of - 6.9% [21]. - The average price of lithium mica (2% - 2.5%) is 1,235 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 15 and a daily decline rate of - 1.2%; the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 680 dollars per ton, with a daily decrease of 6 and a daily decline rate of - 0.87%; the price of lithium spodumene 6% (fastmarkets quote) is 645 dollars per ton, with no daily change; the price of lithium spodumene concentrate 6% (from Zimbabwe) is 635 dollars per ton, with a daily decrease of 15 and a daily decline rate of - 2% [25]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipt Information - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 33,854, a decrease of 300 from yesterday. Among them, the warehouse receipts of Xiangyu Sichuan Shanghai decreased by 300, while those of other warehouses remained unchanged [28].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The daily report focuses on the lithium carbonate market on May 23, 2025. The lithium carbonate futures 2507 contract rose 1.67% to 62,140 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 63,050 yuan/ton, while the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 61,450 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 150 yuan/ton [2]. - Zimbabwe's lithium exporters' association requested a two - and - a - half - year delay in a 5% tax to foster local smelters. The government uses the higher - value lithium carbonate price as the benchmark for calculating royalties [2]. - The market price and transaction price of lithium ore have declined. Supply decreased by 537 tons to 16,093 tons this week, with a significant reduction in lithium extraction from spodumene. Demand for lithium carbonate in ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to increase slightly in May, and the cell segment remains prosperous. Inventory decreased by 141 tons to 131,779 tons this week, with downstream and other sectors reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [2]. - The current market contradiction lies in supply. Although the production cut in the lithium salt sector is becoming more evident, the lithium ore price continues to fall, and mines have not stopped or reduced production. The fundamentals are still weak, but short - term capital disturbances and market sentiment driven by news should be watched out for [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 1.67% to 62,140 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 63,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 61,450 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 150 yuan/ton [2]. - **News**: Zimbabwe's lithium exporters' association requested a delay in a 5% tax, and the government uses a higher - value lithium carbonate price for royalty calculations [2]. - **Price, Supply, Demand, and Inventory**: Lithium ore prices declined. Supply decreased by 537 tons to 16,093 tons this week, with a large drop in spodumene - based lithium extraction. Demand for lithium carbonate in ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to increase slightly in May, and the cell segment is booming. Inventory decreased by 141 tons to 131,779 tons this week, with downstream and other sectors reducing inventory and smelters increasing inventory [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The current market contradiction is supply - oriented. Despite production cuts in the lithium salt sector, the fundamentals are weak as lithium ore prices fall and mines do not cut production. Short - term capital disturbances and news - driven market sentiment should be monitored [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract was 62,140 yuan/ton, up 1,040 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 62,160 yuan/ton, up 980 yuan [4]. - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) and lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) remained unchanged at 690 US dollars/ton and 705 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 150 yuan/ton [4]. - **Other Products**: The price of hexafluorophosphate lithium remained unchanged, and the prices of some precursors and cathode materials decreased slightly [4]. Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [5][7]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate lithium from 2024 to 2025 [8][10][12]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc., from 2024 to 2025 [15][16]. - **Precursors and Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [19][22][25]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][30]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other segments from September 2024 to May 2025 [33][35]. - **Production Costs**: A chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [37][38].

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Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a downturn, particularly in lithium carbonate futures, which have seen a significant decline in price [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 16, lithium carbonate futures have dropped by 3.84%, trading at 62,020 yuan/ton [1] - The spot market for battery-grade lithium carbonate is reported at 63,350 yuan/ton, down by 1,300 yuan/ton, while industrial-grade lithium carbonate is at 62,500 yuan/ton, down by 900 yuan/ton [2] Group 2: Inventory and Supply - Overall inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased by 500 tons to 132,000 tons, with downstream inventory down by 3,000 tons to 42,000 tons, while smelter inventory has increased by 3,800 tons to 55,000 tons [2] - The second quarter is expected to see a continued oversupply of lithium carbonate, with high inventories of both lithium ore and lithium salt [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Outlook - The current trading in the spot market is sluggish, with lithium salt manufacturers reluctant to lower prices despite increased supply and rising imports [3] - The outlook for lithium prices is expected to be volatile in the short term, influenced by U.S.-China trade talks that may benefit energy storage battery exports [3]

Production Capacity and Expansion Plans - Current lithium ore mining capacity is 1.05 million tons/year, with a planned expansion to 2.5 million tons/year for ore selection, which is progressing in 2024 [2] - The company is preparing to add 350,000 tons/year of ore selection capacity at the original mining site, while the remaining capacity of the 2.5 million tons/year expansion project is still under site selection [5] - The lithium salt production capacity within the company is 4,800 tons/year, with a joint venture planning for 40,000 tons/year [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 561 million CNY and a net profit of 215 million CNY, resulting in a basic earnings per share of 0.8289 CNY/share [2] - The company’s net profit remained positive despite a significant decline in lithium product prices, which fell by 43% year-on-year [6][7] Market and Industry Outlook - The lithium battery materials industry continues to have growth potential, driven by increasing demand in the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [7] - The company plans to enhance its core competitiveness and expand its revenue and profitability through various strategies, including improving lithium resource management and expanding production scale [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on high-end products in the lithium battery anode and cathode materials sector, aiming to fill market gaps with high-rate and high-capacity products [7] - A comprehensive industry chain layout has been established, enhancing synergy and resilience against market fluctuations [7] Stock Performance and Market Perception - The company’s stock price has been negatively impacted by external factors such as macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment, leading to a perception of deliberate price suppression for low-cost capital increase [8] - The company emphasizes the importance of risk management and sustainable operations to enhance shareholder value [8]