Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company for the first time [4][7]. Core Insights - Wanchen Group (300972.SZ) has shifted its core business focus from edible fungi to snack wholesale, with the snack segment accounting for 98.33% of revenue by 2024 [4][38]. - The company has experienced significant growth in its snack wholesale business, with revenue reaching 31.79 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an average annual growth rate of 66.6 times from 2023 to 2024 [7][41]. - The snack market in China is projected to maintain a growth rate of 6% to 8% over the next three years, with the market size expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan by 2026 [8][11]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Wanchen Group, established in 2011, initially focused on edible fungi but has transitioned to snack wholesale, which now dominates its revenue structure [4][38]. - The company has expanded its snack wholesale operations through acquisitions, including brands like "Lixiaochan" and "Haoxianglai," achieving a nationwide presence with over 15,000 stores by 2024 [7][41]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 9.294 billion yuan in 2023 to 52.373 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 1592.03% in 2023 and 62% in 2025 [6]. - Net profit is expected to increase significantly, from a loss of 830 million yuan in 2023 to a profit of 837 million yuan in 2025 [6]. Market Dynamics - The snack market in China has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, driven by urbanization and innovation in products and channels [8][11]. - Snack wholesale stores are characterized by low gross margins but high return on equity, with Wanchen Group achieving a return on equity of 17.44% in Q1 2025 [7][54]. Business Model - The snack wholesale model focuses on high turnover and low margins, with a gross margin of 11.02% in Q1 2025, which is lower than other retail channels [49][54]. - The company employs a franchise model to expand its market presence, with a significant increase in the number of franchise stores from 4,726 in 2023 to 15,000 in Q1 2025 [72]. Investment Outlook - The company's stock price has increased significantly, with a cumulative rise of 1,159% from January 1, 2023, to August 13, 2025, reflecting a strong market performance [80]. - The report suggests that the company is well-positioned to replicate its successful wholesale model across other product categories in the future [7].

以2025 年一季度为例，公司的净利率（3.59%）仅次于百货（4.5%），而高于其它。房租、营销、管理 等各项费用率较低是保持较高净利率的主要原因。此外，公司的存货周转率、应收账款周转率以及总资 产周转率也高于其它渠道。 2022 年、2023 年先后收购"陆小馋"、"好想来"、"老婆大人"等，形成全国化布局。至2024 年，公司的 量贩门店突破1.5 万家，覆盖全国29 个省份；量贩营收达到317.9 亿元，2023 至2024 年营收年均增长 66.6 倍。 与百货、超市、综合电商以及专业连锁相比，零食量贩业态有着低毛利率、高净资产回报率的特征。以 2025 年一季度为例，公司的净资产回报率高达17.44%，而其它渠道的净资产回报率在0.3%至2%区间， 差异非常大。 在维持低毛利率的同时实现了较高的净资产回报率，其中的原因包括：量贩渠道有着较高的净利率和周 转率。在各零售渠道中，零食量贩的净利率水平较高： 投资要点： 万辰集团（300972.SZ）是一家成立于2011 年的福建省民营企业。公司的传统业务是食用菌的研发、工 厂化培育及市场销售领域，食用菌产品覆盖国内七大区域并出口东南亚和欧美。公司目前的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bulk snack retail model, characterized by "vertical + thousands of stores" hard discount strategies, is fundamentally a business driven by traffic growth, benefiting from market upgrades and improved channel efficiency [1] - The total number of stores in the industry has rapidly expanded from 13,000 in January 2022 to over 40,000 currently, leading to an increase in the share of specialty store channels from 7.6% in 2019 to 11.2% in 2024, with the market size of the leisure food and beverage sector projected to reach 3.7 trillion [1] - The bulk retail format shows strong competitiveness in terms of payback period and capital efficiency compared to other retail formats, with a theoretical potential for approximately 86,000 stores nationwide based on various supply and demand parameters [1] Group 2 - The transition from vertical bulk retail to horizontal product expansion is seen as a challenging yet correct strategy, with discount supermarkets optimizing single-store models and expanding store space through refined operations and supply chain efficiencies [2] - The competitive landscape is becoming clearer with leading players in the bulk retail sector focusing on mergers and acquisitions, with distinct advantages in market distribution and operational efficiency between major players [3] - The profitability of leading bulk retailers is expected to improve in the short term due to reduced subsidies and scale efficiencies, while the development of private label brands is crucial for long-term growth and valuation enhancement [4]

上市公司相关财务数据：25 年1-5 月累计实现营收188.39 亿元，毛利率为10.94%，净利润6.68 亿元，净 利率为3.55%，实现归母净利3.59 亿元，归母净利/净利润为54%，假设收购后25 年1-5 月归母净利/净利 润比例将提升至63%。 交易情况介绍：公司拟以现金13.79 亿元购买南京万优49%的股权，收购完成后，上市公司将直接和间 接持有南京万优75.01%的股权。本次收购南京万优100%股权交易对价为28.15 亿元，以南京万优24 年 净利润计算，估值为11.43X，以25 年1-5 月净利润年化计算，估值为8.29X。本次收购同时福建农开 发、漳州金万辰、王泽宁、张海国将向淮南盛裕实际控制人周鹏转让上市公司5.2714%的股权。我们认 为本次收购南京万优少数股权将进一步增厚归母净利，来优品品牌创始人周鹏等持有上市公司股权，与 公司形成较强绑定，有助于业务更好发展。 南京万优基本情况：主要覆盖华东、华北及华中地区， 24 年实现营收77.12 亿元，占上市公司收入比例 为23.86%， 24 年底门店数量为3041家，占上市公司门店数量的21.42%，24 年毛利率为13.3%， ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate-A" rating for the company [7][63]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Wanchen Group, has demonstrated significant performance in the snack retail sector, with a revenue increase of 247.9% year-on-year to 32.33 billion yuan in 2024, primarily driven by its snack retail business, which accounted for 98.33% of total revenue [4][41]. - The company is expanding rapidly, with a total of approximately 14,000 stores by the end of 2024, reflecting a 200% year-on-year increase, and an average monthly store opening rate of 815 [4][41]. - The Chinese snack retail market is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.54% from 2019 to 2023, and the company is well-positioned to benefit from this structural upgrade in the industry [5][25]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Wanchen Group, established in 2011, has transitioned from a focus on edible mushrooms to becoming a leading player in the snack retail sector, with its snack revenue surpassing 98% of total revenue by 2024 [13][41]. - The company has made strategic acquisitions of brands such as "Lixiaochan" and "Haoxianglai," enhancing its product matrix and market presence [6][17]. Industry Landscape - The snack retail market in China is projected to reach 762.7 billion yuan in 2024, driven by supply chain optimization and improved channel efficiency [25][31]. - The market is highly concentrated, with the top two players holding over 80% market share, indicating a competitive landscape where Wanchen Group and its main competitor are vying for dominance [25][36]. Operational Outlook - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 55.13 billion yuan, 67.04 billion yuan, and 79.29 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 70.53%, 21.60%, and 18.27% respectively [8][59]. - Profitability is projected to improve significantly, with net profits expected to reach 708 million yuan, 933 million yuan, and 1.13 billion yuan over the same period, reflecting growth rates of 141.36%, 31.66%, and 21.04% [8][59]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company reported a net profit of 294 million yuan in 2024, a significant turnaround from a loss of 83 million yuan in 2023, indicating a strong recovery in profitability [8][61]. - The report estimates the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 42.8, 32.5, and 26.9 respectively, suggesting a premium valuation due to its growth potential [7][63].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [12]. Core Insights - The snack retail segment of the company ranks at the top of the industry, having integrated five major snack retail brands. By the end of 2024, the company is expected to have 14,196 snack retail stores nationwide. The company is actively expanding its store network while improving operational efficiency and profit margins, with plans to explore full-category discount supermarkets as a new growth avenue [4][7][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2011, went public in 2021 and primarily operates in the edible mushroom and snack retail sectors. It has integrated five major snack retail brands since entering the snack retail market [20][21]. Financial Performance - The company experienced significant revenue growth following the integration of its snack retail brands in 2023, although it faced short-term losses due to high initial investments. It is projected to turn profitable in 2024, with net profit margins stabilizing around 2.5%-2.7% and increasing to 3.85% in Q1 2025 [7][10][26]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The snack retail sector has become a key channel for leisure snack sales in China, with the market size expected to grow from 2.9 trillion yuan in 2019 to 3.7 trillion yuan by 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5%. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth, with plans to expand into full-category supermarkets [8][48][49]. Store Network and Logistics - As of March 2025, the company has signed contracts for 15,000 stores, with over 10,000 stores operated by its brand "Good Idea." The company also boasts nearly 50 intelligent warehousing and logistics centers, enabling it to reach over 300 million consumers in county-level markets [9][10]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 900 million yuan, 1.174 billion yuan, and 1.556 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of 4.80 yuan, 6.26 yuan, and 8.30 yuan. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 31, 24, and 18 times [10].

Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leader in the snack retail sector, integrating multiple brands and expanding its store network significantly [1][4] - The snack retail market in China is experiencing robust growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.5% from 2019 to 2024, indicating a strong demand for snack products [2] - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2024, with net profit margins stabilizing between 2.5% and 2.7% [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The company has integrated five major snack retail brands, resulting in a total of 14,196 snack retail stores nationwide by the end of 2024 [1] - The company has implemented five rounds of equity incentives since 2022, covering various levels of employees, with a gradual decrease in incentive costs expected starting in 2025 [1] - The company has a strong store network, with a projected 15,000 signed stores by March 2025, and over 10,000 stores under the "Good Idea" brand [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The snack retail sector has become a significant channel for leisure snack sales in China, with the market size growing from 2.9 trillion yuan to 3.7 trillion yuan from 2019 to 2024 [2] - The down-market segment is projected to reach a GMV of 2.3 trillion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 6.5% [2] - The direct sourcing and centralized pricing strategies employed by snack retailers are reshaping the value chain, creating a win-win ecosystem for brands, suppliers, franchisees, and consumers [2] Group 3: Future Prospects - The company is actively exploring full-category discount supermarket formats, with new store openings planned in lower-tier markets [3] - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a net profit of 9.00 billion yuan in 2025, increasing to 15.56 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding EPS growth [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from improved operational efficiency and profit margin enhancements as it expands its store footprint [4]

Summary of Conference Call on Snack Retail Industry Industry Overview - Focus on the snack retail industry, reviewing changes over the past few years and comparing it with traditional retail [1] - The snack retail industry is currently experiencing rapid store openings and consolidation through mergers and acquisitions [2] Key Insights - The snack retail industry has evolved through three phases: 1. **2010-2019**: Exploration of business models with the emergence of regional snack retail brands [1] 2. **2020-2022**: Rapid expansion of snack retail stores, with significant growth in store numbers [11] 3. **2023-Present**: Fast-paced store openings and ongoing consolidation among brands [2][14] - Leading companies, such as Mingming Hen Mang and Wanchun Group, are accelerating their store opening pace, with both expected to exceed 14,000 stores in 2024 [15] - The industry is characterized by low gross margins (around 10%) compared to traditional supermarkets, which can reach 25-40% [15][16] - The average store turnover days for inventory are notably low, around 10-20 days, indicating efficient inventory management [3][21] Financial Performance - Mingming Hen Mang's single-store revenue increased from approximately 3.1 million to 3.8 million from 2022 to 2024, while Wanchun's revenue slightly decreased from 3.5 million to 3.4 million [23] - The investment return period for franchisees remains stable at around two years, indicating a healthy franchise model [27] Market Dynamics - The snack retail sector is witnessing a dual oligopoly with Mingming Hen Mang and Wanchun Group dominating the market [15] - The industry is expected to reach a total of 70,000-80,000 stores, with both leading brands aiming for 20,000-30,000 stores each [24] - The demand in lower-tier cities is growing, driven by urbanization and increased disposable income, making these markets attractive for expansion [12][13] Competitive Landscape - Traditional supermarkets like Walmart and Yonghui are adjusting their strategies to compete with snack retail stores, focusing on product selection and pricing [25][26] - The snack retail model is less reliant on advertising and promotional expenses compared to traditional retail, allowing for lower prices for consumers [18][19] - The industry is expected to continue expanding in lower-tier markets, where competition is less intense and consumer demand is increasing [28][29] Future Outlook - The snack retail industry is likely to see continued consolidation and expansion, with potential for improved gross margins through supply chain integration [20] - The competitive advantage in lower-tier markets is expected to persist due to established brand recognition and consumer loyalty [29] - Overall, the snack retail sector is positioned for sustained growth, driven by efficient operations and strategic market positioning [29]

Market Overview - On July 15, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.42%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.03%, the STAR 50 increased by 0.39%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.3%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 1.73%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.6% [4] - The best-performing sectors on July 15 were telecommunications (+4.61%), computers (+1.42%), electronics (+0.79%), home appliances (+0.59%), and automobiles (+0.58%). The worst-performing sectors were coal (-1.92%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.62%), utilities (-1.6%), textiles and apparel (-1.55%), and beauty and personal care (-1.53%) [4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on July 15 was 16,350.05 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.824 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations Company: Xuguang Electronics (600353) - The company is a leading domestic supplier of vacuum devices, with growth potential in controlled nuclear fusion and electronic materials [5] - Key points include being a top supplier of megawatt-level electronic tubes, with the DB967 tube applicable in nuclear fusion, and having leading domestic capacity in aluminum nitride, which may alleviate supply chain constraints [5] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,953.40 million yuan, 2,390.02 million yuan, and 3,033.57 million yuan, with growth rates of 23.13%, 22.35%, and 26.93% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 166.93 million yuan, 208.79 million yuan, and 274.04 million yuan, with growth rates of 62.89%, 25.08%, and 31.25% respectively [5] Company: Wancheng Group (300972) - The company is positioned as a pure player in the hard discount sector and is the only listed company in the bulk snack market, with strong scale advantages and bargaining power [6] - The company operates over 15,000 stores, which enhances its bargaining power within the supply chain. As subsidy expenses decrease, there is potential for improved net profit margins [6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 54,008 million yuan, 64,250 million yuan, and 73,350 million yuan, with growth rates of 67.06%, 18.96%, and 14.16% respectively. Net profit projections are 936 million yuan, 1,292 million yuan, and 1,602 million yuan, with growth rates of 218.81%, 38.03%, and 24.06% respectively [7]

Core Viewpoint - The incident involving a store employee from the snack brand "好想来" kneeling to apologize to a customer has raised concerns about customer service and employee treatment within the company, which has faced similar issues in the past [3]. Group 1: Incident Details - The incident occurred at the "好想来" store in Lianyungang, Jiangsu, where a cashier reportedly knelt to apologize to a customer over a queue dispute [3]. - The store owner stated that the customer did not file a complaint after the incident, and the employee has returned to normal work after emotional support was provided [3]. Group 2: Company Background - "好想来" is owned by Wanchen Group, a leading company in the bulk snack industry, with 14,196 stores as of the end of 2024, ranking second in the industry [3]. - In 2024, Wanchen Group reported a revenue of 32.329 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 247.86%, and a net profit of 294 million yuan, up 453.95% year-on-year [3]. Group 3: Previous Issues and Management - The company previously faced backlash when employees were reported to have verbally abused customers, leading to a public apology and disciplinary actions against the involved staff [3]. - Following the incident, the company committed to enhancing employee service training and improving customer feedback mechanisms to prevent future occurrences [3]. Group 4: Shareholder Actions - On July 4, Wanchen Group announced that its controlling shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 1.8 million shares, raising concerns about the company's future [6]. - The chairman of Wanchen Group, Wang Jiankun, was previously under investigation but has since resumed his duties after the investigation was lifted [6].