Group 1 - The 2025 Global Digital Economy Conference will be held from July 2 to 5, focusing on "Building Digital Friendly Cities" and will showcase achievements over the past five years, along with the release of the "Beijing Digital Economy Development Blue Book" [1] - The 2025 China Used Car Conference will take place from July 2 to 4 in Chongqing, inviting industry representatives and experts to discuss challenges and opportunities in the used car sector, including traceability systems and long-term development mechanisms [2] - A total of 348.5 million shares from 9 companies will be unlocked today, with a total market value of 830 million yuan, including significant unlocks from companies like United Precision and ST Tongpu [3] - 147 companies have disclosed stock repurchase progress, with 148 related announcements, including 4 new repurchase plans exceeding 10 million yuan, and 131 companies reporting ongoing repurchase implementations [4] - A total of 365.3 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos will mature today, following a central bank operation conducted on June 26 with an interest rate of 1.40% [5]

Core Insights - The Australian AIG/PWC Manufacturing Performance Index for June is reported at -29.3, a decline from the previous value of -23.5 [1] Group 1 - The current index indicates a worsening performance in the manufacturing sector, reflecting a more negative outlook compared to the prior month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced a postponement of the second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders originally scheduled for July 7, 2025, now set for July 11, 2025, to include a temporary proposal regarding a significant asset swap and cash purchase of assets [1][3]. Group 1: Meeting Details - The second extraordinary general meeting of shareholders will now take place on July 11, 2025, at 15:00, with the record date for shareholding remaining unchanged on July 1, 2025 [1][4]. - The meeting will be conducted both in-person and via online voting, allowing shareholders to participate through the Shenzhen Stock Exchange trading system and an internet voting platform [4][10]. - Shareholders must register to attend the meeting, with registration available from July 1 to July 11, 2025 [9]. Group 2: Proposals for Discussion - A temporary proposal regarding the significant asset swap and cash purchase of assets will be submitted for review at the meeting [1][2]. - The proposals include various aspects of the transaction, such as pricing basis, payment methods, and compliance with relevant regulations [2][7]. - The board has confirmed that the temporary proposal meets the qualifications set forth in the Company Law and the company's articles of association [3][5]. Group 3: Voting Procedures - Voting will be conducted through both in-person and online methods, with specific time frames for each voting method outlined [4][10]. - In cases of duplicate voting on the same proposal, the first valid vote will be considered [10]. - The results of the voting will be separately counted for minority investors, ensuring transparency in the decision-making process [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wuchan Zhongda Jinlun Blue Ocean Co., Ltd., has approved a share repurchase plan using its own funds, with a total repurchase amount between RMB 10 million and RMB 20 million, aimed at employee stock ownership plans and equity incentives [1][2]. Summary by Sections Share Repurchase Plan - The company plans to repurchase shares through centralized bidding, with an estimated repurchase price not exceeding RMB 15 [1]. - The total number of shares expected to be repurchased is approximately 133.33 thousand, which represents a certain percentage of the company's total share capital at the time of the announcement [1]. Progress of Share Repurchase - As of the latest update, the company has repurchased a total of 719,500 shares, accounting for a percentage of the total share capital, with a total expenditure of RMB 10,005,342 (excluding transaction fees) [1][2]. Compliance with Regulations - The share repurchase activities are in compliance with the relevant regulations set forth by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, including restrictions on trading during specific periods and price limits [2].

同时公布的美国5月JOLTs职位空缺从前值739.1万人升至776.9万人，显示出美国就业市场的韧性。 就在上述数据公布的同时，美联储主席鲍威尔在一次研讨会上表示，美国经济处于相当良好的状态。上述经 济数据在一定程度上支撑美联储在7月议息会议上继续维持美国联邦基金利率水平不变。 鲍威尔认为，在今年夏季美国经济的通货膨胀率可能会出现明显的反弹。正是基于这样的预判，美联储迟迟 没有重新启动降息进程。在鲍威尔看来，美国经济正处于适度具有限制性的状态。 不过，特朗普总统一直以来都在催促美联储降息。这也许是因为特朗普总统担心美国经济会出现加速下行的 情况，他希望通过宽松的货币政策来对冲经济的不利因素。 笔者认为，美国经济的通货膨胀未来很可能会继续逐步下降，而非出现大幅反弹，经济的下行也存在着加速 的可能性，届时美联储再采取宽松的货币政策则可能会再次滞后于市场。 如果美国经济未来出现严重的疲软，在明年美联储主席更换后，美联储很可能会加速降息，甚至会再次将美 国联邦基金利率水平降低至零。 7月1日公布的数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业PMI从前值48.5小幅上升至49，仍然处于荣枯线以下，但是有所 改善。 JerryZang ...

金十数据7月1日讯，美国制造业在6月份仍然低迷，新订单低迷，投入价格攀升，这表明特朗普政府对 进口商品征收的关税继续阻碍企业提前计划的能力。最新的数据显示，美国6月ISM制造业PMI从5月的 六个月低点48.5微升至49.0。这是PMI连续第四个月低于50，这表明占经济10.2%的制造业出现收缩。与 此同时，楼市、消费者支出和失业人数不断增加等疲弱数据显示，美国经济的潜在动能在第二季进一步 放缓，尽管GDP可能反弹，因创纪录的贸易逆差拖累因进口下降而消退。 受关税影响，美国制造业陷入疲软 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 基建方面，6 月基建投资累计同比或有所回升。（1）6 月建筑业 PMI 大幅 上升 1.8 个百分点至 52.8%；（2）石油沥青装置开工率边际回升，沥青价格 小幅上行，水泥价格延续下跌趋势；（3）6 月新增专项债发行逐渐加速。 地产方面，6 月地产投资增速维持偏弱表现。（1）6 月以来新房销售环比 好转，但同比表现仍然偏弱，土地成交面积低于季节性水平；（2）6 月螺 纹钢和玻璃价格仍处低位运行，一定程度反映地产投资或延续偏弱。制造 业方面，6 月制造业投资可能基本持平。（1）当前内需改善，但外需疲弱。 6 月新订单指数回升至 50.2%，新出口订单指数仍处于收缩区间。（2）6 月 企业经营预期指数下行至 52.0%，反映企业当前经营压力或边际加大。 6 月经济金融"成绩单"前瞻 证券研究报告 贸易：预计 6 月出口当月同比 4.2%，进口当月同比-1.0% 宏观数据预测专题 6 月出口增速小幅下行。（1）日内瓦协议或提振 6 月对美出口表现，且中 国对欧洲等地区出口预计维持稳健；（2）全球制造业 PMI 延续下行、处于 收缩区间，意味外需仍总体疲软。 6 月作为年中时点，6 月经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic operation is in a neutral range, and the marginal change in the economy compared to 2024 may lie in consumption [2][104]. - The negative economic cycle of "sharp decline in housing prices, sharp decline in the stock market - wealth shrinkage - consumption downgrade" in the past two years has come to an end [2][104]. - Pay attention to the progress of future China - US trade negotiations and whether the fentanyl tariff can be reduced to 0, as well as possible policy adjustments for weak business reception activities that may affect consumption [2][104]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Macro News - On June 24, six departments including the People's Bank of China jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Boosting and Expanding Consumption", which aims to activate markets such as automobiles, culture and tourism, and elderly care through various measures [8]. - On June 26, the Financial Regulatory Administration and others issued the "Implementation Plan for the High - Quality Development of Inclusive Finance in the Banking and Insurance Industries", aiming to build a high - quality inclusive finance system and solve the financing problems of small and micro enterprises, "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers", and new citizens [8]. - The second - quarter meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 was held on June 23. It was more cautious about the world economic growth momentum and more optimistic about the domestic economy. The probability of a recent reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut is low [8]. - From January to May 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year slight decrease of 1.1%. However, the profit structure had highlights, with the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 7.2% [9][10]. - Israel and Iran announced a formal cease - fire, leading to a significant decline in domestic and international oil prices recently [13]. 3.2 Medium - term High - Frequency: Consumption and Production Show Differentiated Recovery Characteristics 3.2.1 Consumption: Policy Stimulus Shows Remarkable Results - As of the week of June 22, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 30.0% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 1.4% year - on - year [16][19]. - As of the week of June 13, the retail volume and retail amount of three major household appliances increased by 24.6% and 13.5% year - on - year respectively [16][25]. 3.2.2 Transportation: Supply Chain Resilience is Prominent - As of the week of June 22, the container throughput of ports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, railway freight volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and highway truck traffic volume increased by 0.7% year - on - year [17][27]. - As of the week of June 22, the number of civil aviation flights guaranteed increased by 1.7% year - on - year, and as of June 27, the average passenger volume of subways in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 2.3% year - on - year [17][36]. 3.2.3 Capacity Utilization: Infrastructure Chain is Stronger than Chemical Chain - As of June 25, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of major steel enterprises nationwide was 77.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 pct, and as of June 26, the average asphalt capacity utilization rate was 25.0%, a year - on - year increase of 1.0 pct [17][49]. - As of June 26, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 85.7%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 pct, and the PVC capacity utilization rate was 74.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5 pct [17][53]. 3.2.4 Real Estate: Continuously Under Pressure - As of June 27, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the number of transactions decreased by 2.0% year - on - year [18][62]. - As of June 22, the listing price index of second - hand houses in national cities decreased by 7.5% year - on - year [18][67]. 3.2.5 Price: Commodity Prices are Under Pressure - As of June 27, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 16.8% year - on - year, and the average wholesale price of vegetables decreased by 0.8% year - on - year [18][75]. - As of June 27, the average spot price of WTI crude oil was 67.4 US dollars per barrel, a year - on - year decrease of 17.0% [18][81]. 3.3 Bond Market and Foreign Exchange Market: Structural Easing Coexists with Cross - Month Pressure - On June 27, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.65%, and 1.85% respectively, with changes of - 1.0BP, + 0.3BP, + 0.6BP, and + 1.3BP compared to June 20 [2][89]. - On June 27, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan were 7.16/7.17, down 68/147 pips compared to June 20 [94]. 3.4 Institutional Behavior: The Duration of Credit Bond Funds has Decreased - As of June 29, the net - breaking rate of public wealth management products of wealth management companies was about 0.81%, a decrease of 1.16 pct compared to the beginning of the year, and the current net - breaking rate's percentile within the year was below 5% [96]. - As of June 27, the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for interest - rate bonds were about 4.7 years and 5.1 years respectively, an increase of about 0.12 years compared to the previous week; the median and average duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds for credit bonds were about 1.9 years and 2.1 years respectively, a decrease of about 0.19 years compared to the previous week [97][98]. 3.5 Investment Suggestions - Be bullish on long - duration urban investment bonds and bank capital bonds with a yield of over 2%. Currently, the yield of 10Y treasury bonds is close to a historical low, and the cost - effectiveness of investing in interest - rate bonds is low. Among interest - rate bonds, local bonds have a higher cost - effectiveness than treasury bonds [104]. - Continue to pay attention to Hong Kong - listed banks. The low interest rates in the domestic market may drive up the valuations of high - dividend stocks [104].

Core Insights - Eurozone manufacturing shows signs of stabilization in June, with PMI rising to 49.5, the highest level since August 2022, marking the fourth consecutive month of output growth [1][4] - New orders stabilized in June, ending a 37-month decline, while export orders also showed signs of recovery [4] - Germany's manufacturing PMI reached a 34-month high, with new orders growing at the fastest rate in 39 months, indicating a continued recovery [6][9] - France's manufacturing PMI fell to 48.1, marking the largest decline since February, primarily due to a sharp drop in new orders [11][14] Eurozone Manufacturing Overview - Eurozone manufacturing PMI increased from 49.4 in May to 49.5 in June, approaching the critical 50 mark, although still in contraction territory [4] - Output index decreased from 51.5 in May to 50.8 in June, indicating a slowdown in growth but remaining in the expansion zone [4] - Employment numbers continued to decline for the 25th consecutive month, with layoffs accelerating slightly in June [4] Country-Specific Performance - Germany's manufacturing PMI rose from 48.3 in May to 49.0 in June, with output index reaching 51.9, indicating a two-month high [6][9] - New orders in Germany increased for the third time in four months, reflecting improved domestic and international demand [9] - In contrast, France's manufacturing sector faced further deterioration, with new orders declining at the fastest rate in four months, leading to reduced production activity [11][14] Employment and Pricing Trends - German manufacturers reported a slight increase in purchasing activity for the first time in three years, despite ongoing declines in inventory levels [9] - French manufacturers continued to face rising input prices, with inflation slightly accelerating compared to May, while also reducing selling prices to compete for new business [14]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - Manufacturing PMI recorded at 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the critical threshold[8] - New orders index for manufacturing rose to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion territory, while the backlog of orders index remains below the threshold at 45.2%[13] - Production index improved to 51%, indicating an increase in manufacturing activity, while the employment index fell to 47.9%, suggesting ongoing labor market challenges[15] Group 2: Service and Construction PMI Insights - Service sector PMI decreased to 50.1%, but remains in the expansion zone, with new orders index at 46.9%, indicating insufficient demand[23] - Construction PMI increased to 52.8%, reflecting improved business activity, although the new orders index is still below the threshold at 44.9%[29] - Employment index in the construction sector recorded at 39.9%, indicating a lack of hiring activity[29] Group 3: Inventory and Price Trends - Manufacturing raw material inventory index at 48%, and finished goods inventory at 48.1%, both below the critical point, indicating insufficient replenishment[17] - Input prices for manufacturing recorded at 48.4%, while output prices at 46.2%, both below the threshold, suggesting pressure on profit margins[17] - Service sector input prices index at 50.2%, while sales prices index at 48.9%, indicating insufficient pricing power in the service industry[25] Group 4: Trade and Economic Outlook - Manufacturing import index at 47.8% and new export orders index at 47.7%, both below the threshold, indicating trade challenges[20] - Overall economic outlook remains cautious, with risks including deviations from expected fundamental recovery and geopolitical uncertainties[36]