Core Viewpoint - The recent "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments aims to enhance high-end supply, regulate major project construction, and ensure fertilizer production stability, which is expected to optimize supply and improve industry prosperity [1][2]. Group 1: Capacity Control and Industry Impact - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and rational planning for the addition of ethylene, PX, and coal-based methanol production, focusing on supporting the replacement and upgrading of outdated facilities [2]. - In 2024, China's refining, PX, and methanol capacities are projected to change by -1%, 0%, and 2% year-on-year, reaching 970 million tons, 44 million tons, and 103 million tons respectively, indicating a significant slowdown in capacity growth [2]. - Ethylene capacity is expected to grow by 7% in 2024 to 5.542 million tons, with a total of 2.415 million tons planned for addition in 2025/26, but the supply-demand balance is weakening due to concentrated investments in recent years [2]. Group 2: Fertilizer Production and Supply Stability - The plan requires optimization of minimum production plans for key fertilizer producers and encourages long-term supply agreements between raw material suppliers and fertilizer manufacturers to ensure stable raw material supply [3]. - Rising prices of upstream raw materials, particularly sulfur and sulfuric acid, due to refinery output declines and geopolitical conflicts, are expected to impact fertilizer production stability positively [3]. Group 3: High-end Supply and Emerging Technologies - The plan aims to enhance high-end supply and accelerate the digital and green transformation, promoting the development of new materials and emerging technologies [4]. - Key areas for high-end chemical materials include integrated circuits, new energy, medical devices, and low-altitude economy, with innovations in electronic chemicals, specialty engineering plastics, and carbon fiber materials expected to accelerate [4]. - Traditional materials are anticipated to improve in quality, with industries gradually transitioning towards low-energy consumption, environmental protection, and high-end production [4].

Core Points - The company, Sierte (002538.SZ), has received a notice from the Xuancheng Public Security Bureau regarding the transfer of a case involving former executives suspected of embezzlement and other crimes [1] - The case involves multiple individuals, including former directors and senior management, who are accused of misappropriating substantial company assets and engaging in fraudulent activities [1][2] Summary by Sections - **Criminal Allegations**: The allegations include embezzlement of large sums from the company and its wholly-owned subsidiary, as well as fabricating transactions to misappropriate funds and obtain government subsidies [1] - **Legal Proceedings**: The case has been transferred to the Xuancheng People's Procuratorate for prosecution, with specific individuals named in the allegations, including charges of bribery and fraud [1] - **Company's Position**: The company is identified as a victim in the embezzlement case, and even if found guilty of unit crime, it would only face fines, with criminal responsibility primarily directed at the responsible individuals [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend this week. With the expected resumption of production of overhauled devices of multiple urea enterprises in late September, the daily urea production is expected to return to a high - level in late September. On the demand side, as the autumn fertilizer production nears its end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has gradually declined, and the finished product inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a relatively high level year - on - year. In the short term, due to the increase in supply pressure and weak demand, the urea inventory has been continuously accumulating. With uncertainties in Indian tenders and export expectations, the futures price may continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders, macro - impacts, and export changes. For the UR2601 contract, pay attention to the support level performance around 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Summary - **Supply**: The daily urea production has significantly rebounded, with the weekly urea output at 1401500 tons (+5.38%), including 1108600 tons of coal - based urea and 292900 tons of gas - based urea, with an average daily output of 200000 tons. Multiple enterprises are scheduled for maintenance in October [4][19][23]. - **Demand**: The support from autumn fertilizer is limited. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 35.27% (-3.36%), and the finished product inventory is 791700 tons (a decrease of 8100 tons compared to the previous period). The operating rate of melamine is 60.58% (+3.80%). Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Indian tenders [4][32]. - **Inventory**: Upstream urea enterprises continue to accumulate inventory. The factory inventory is 1218200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 52900 tons. The port inventory is 496300 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 19700 tons). The mainstream pre - sale days of urea enterprises are 6.71 days (a week - on - week increase of 0.53 days) [4][25][29]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices continue to be strong, and urea profits have decreased compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread has slightly narrowed, and the 01 basis has changed little [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price showed a weak trend this week [6]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price has been adjusted downward [10]. - **Production and Maintenance**: The weekly urea output has increased, and multiple enterprises have planned maintenance in October [19][23]. - **Raw Material End**: Coal prices continue to be strong [34]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: The 1 - 5 spread has slightly narrowed, and the 01 basis has changed little [43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In Q3, urea prices were boosted multiple times by domestic anti - involution measures, urea export quota news, and the friendly relationship between China and India. After the domestic positive news was realized, domestic demand was weak, prices declined successively, and the spot decline was greater than the futures decline, gradually turning into futures premium [5]. - In the context of loose supply and demand, urea remains in a weak - running state. The spot price may remain oscillating at a low level around 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton. A negative feedback mechanism may form where low prices attract orders, but downstream buyers' "buy - on - rising" behavior leads to sporadic downstream demand. For the futures market, the 01 contract should pay short - term attention to the pressure level around 1,730 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract should focus on the 1,750/1,770 yuan/ton pressure levels. It is expected to mainly sell on rebounds in Q4 [6]. - On the supply side, affected by technological transformation in Shanxi and parade - related maintenance in Q3, urea production decreased quarter - on - quarter. However, with subsequent capacity expansion and the resumption of factory operations, it is expected that after the production recovers, the daily urea output will still fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In Q4 2025, production is expected to be higher than the same period last year due to high - level capacity [6][52]. - On the demand side, since Q3, the demand for autumn fertilizers has been realized, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has rebounded but remained at the same level as previous years, without bringing new urea demand. Currently, most of the autumn fertilizers have been stocked, and the factory operating rate has declined to digest high - level inventories. Industrial demand is relatively sluggish. Although the consumption of thermal power denitration and vehicle urea has increased by about 8% this year, weak real - estate data has dragged down the expansion of urea industrial demand. Although the export policy has been relaxed, the export quota is far less than the surplus in urea supply and demand, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply - demand pattern [6]. Summaries by Directory Q3 Market Review - Urea prices in Q3 showed a complex trend. Initially, prices were affected by factors such as gas - head device复产, changes in downstream factory operating rates, and export news, resulting in fluctuations including price drops, rebounds, and high - level consolidations. Eventually, after the export positive news was realized, domestic demand was insufficient, and the market was under pressure to decline due to oversupply [9]. - Due to continued capacity expansion and high - level inventory, urea prices have been lower year - on - year this year and are currently at the lowest level in the same period. It is expected to fluctuate between 1,500 - 1,700 yuan/ton in Q4. After the price fell below 1,600 yuan/ton, downstream buyers started to increase purchases as the futures price rebounded. However, domestic demand is expected to weaken after the National Day holiday, and a negative feedback mechanism may form [21]. - In terms of the term structure, urea maintains a contango structure with near - term weakness and long - term strength. The 1 - 5 spread remains in a discount state. With insufficient domestic demand and continuous inventory accumulation in the industry, the 01 contract oscillates at a low level. It is expected that the 1 - 5 spread will continue to be weak, and attention should be paid to reverse - spread opportunities [27]. - Currently, the basis is low, and the market is in a futures premium stage, suitable for selling hedging. After the basis strengthens, hedging supplies may enter the market, increasing market liquidity. The overall basis fluctuation is small, and it is expected to oscillate with a small amplitude in Q4 [37]. - According to Zhengshang Institute data, the settlement price of the 09 contract was 1,643 yuan/ton, with a 17 - yuan/ton premium for Henan spot and a 37 - yuan/ton premium for Hebei spot. The delivery volume of the UR2509 contract was about 4,274 lots, and the nominal delivery volume was about 85,480 tons, an increase of 3,204 lots compared to the 09 contract last year. The significant increase in futures delivery volume and registered warehouse receipts shows the loose market pattern of urea this year [41]. Supply Analysis - As of now, 3.12 million tons of new urea capacity have been put into operation in 2025, and another 3.56 million tons are expected to be commissioned in Q4. Although some backward capacity is being phased out, the overall capacity is still increasing [47]. - From January to August 2025, the cumulative urea production was about 47.4467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.2092 million tons (+9.74%). Affected by technological transformation in Shanxi and parade - related maintenance in Q3, production decreased quarter - on - quarter. After subsequent capacity expansion and factory resumption, daily production is expected to fluctuate around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. In Q4 2025, production is expected to be higher than the same period last year [52]. - According to Longzhong's statistics, about 63.8 million tons of capacity within a 20 - year operating cycle account for 84% of the total capacity. The impact of anti - involution measures on urea production is limited. Although coal prices have increased significantly due to anti - involution, coal - based enterprises still have profits, so the impact on urea is currently small. However, if coal prices continue to rise or urea prices fall, cost support may emerge [56][60]. - As of September 25, the gross profit of fixed - bed urea production dropped to - 247 yuan/ton, and that of natural - gas - based production dropped to - 225 yuan/ton, while the water - coal - slurry production still had positive gross profit. The probability of large - scale production cuts by natural - gas - based enterprises is low due to long - term contracts with upstream suppliers [60]. - Historically, the urea price in the Shandong market was previously benchmarked against the fixed - bed production cost, and a rebound was likely when approaching the cost line. Since July 2024, the spot market price has gradually moved towards the water - coal - slurry cost, and currently, the cost support of water - coal - slurry is weak [65]. Demand Analysis - In terms of demand structure, agricultural demand is the most important, accounting for about 49%, and compound fertilizer demand accounts for about 25%, with the combined proportion close to 75% [74]. - It is estimated that the wheat sowing area in China in 2025 will be 355 million mu, a slight increase of 0.3% from the previous year. The corn sowing area will be about 44.269 million hectares, with a production of 298 million tons and a yield of 6,733 kg/ha, increasing by 1.08%, 2.76%, and 3.87% respectively compared to the previous year. The agricultural demand for urea is expected to increase steadily by about 5% in 2025 [78]. - The 2024 - 2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve project bidding document has adjusted the off - season storage rules. The proportion of urea in the reserve fertilizer has been reduced from not less than 30% to not less than 20%, and the single - target quantity in some provinces has been adjusted. The off - season storage enthusiasm is expected to increase this year, and the preparation time may be earlier and more dispersed than last year [80]. - Since July, the urea price has been oscillating downward, and the spread between compound fertilizer and urea has widened, leading to a recovery in factory profits. However, due to pre - emptive demand in the first half of the year and high finished - product inventories, factories are currently focusing on inventory digestion, and there has been no significant increase in the operating rate [85]. - As of September 26, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants was 35.27%, with an average operating rate of 40% this year. After the demand was pre - empted in the first half of the year, the operating rate has been insufficient. Although the demand for autumn fertilizers has been realized in Q3, it has not brought new urea demand. Currently, most of the autumn fertilizers have been stocked, and the factory operating rate has declined [90]. - Other industrial demands include urea - formaldehyde resin, melamine, vehicle urea, and thermal power denitration. The consumption of thermal power denitration and vehicle urea has increased by about 8% this year. However, the real - estate market has been under pressure in 2025, with a 12.9% year - on - year decline in real - estate development investment and declines in new construction, construction, and completion areas, which has dragged down the expansion of urea industrial demand [94]. - As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's melamine was 60.58%, and the average operating rate from January to September was 62%, flat year - on - year. Since August, the operating rate has been lower year - on - year. With the improvement of downstream demand and the resumption of previously - maintained factories, the demand for urea from melamine is expected to improve marginally [98]. - In 2025, the urea export policy has been relaxed, and domestic prices have been boosted multiple times since Q3. However, the export quota is far less than the surplus in supply and demand, making it difficult to fundamentally reverse the loose supply - demand pattern. As the export window closes, the boost from exports is expected to fade [104]. Inventory - As of September 25, the total inventory of urea enterprises was 1218,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 204,300 tons. The in - factory inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, about 20% higher year - on - year. Since April, the in - factory inventory has been oscillating upwards. With high production and insufficient domestic demand, inventory has continued to accumulate even with the gradual opening of exports. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase as there is no large - scale procurement demand for autumn fertilizers and the off - season storage is approaching [112]. - Since Q3, the number of days of pending orders for upstream urea factories has been higher year - on - year, mainly supported by export orders. As the export window closes, the shipment pressure of upstream factories may increase [112]. - India's urea inventory is currently at a relatively low level in recent years, and 6 - 9 months account for 70% of its annual demand. India has issued multiple tenders in Q3. The latest tender prices are lower than expected, and the domestic market has not been boosted, with the expected Chinese participation volume around 500,000 - 700,000 tons [114][116]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for urea from 2019 - 2025E, showing the production, export, various demand components, total domestic demand, and surplus volume in each year. In 2025E, the production is expected to be 69.76 million tons, exports 4 million tons, and the surplus is 130,000 tons [118].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the supply side of urea will continue to climb as maintenance devices return and new capacities are released, with daily production expected to stay above 200,000 tons. The demand side remains weak overall, with agricultural demand softening after the autumn fertilizer season, but northeastern winter storage starting. Exports are approaching the deadline, and policy changes should be monitored. Urea will remain under pressure in October [5][88]. - For trading strategies, it is expected to be range - bound before the middle of the month. After the middle of the month, short - selling is recommended in the absence of new policies. For inter - period arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. The lower and upper bounds for options are 1550 and 1700 respectively [6][88]. Summary by Directory 1. Foreword Summary Comprehensive Analysis - In October, the supply of urea will increase steadily, while the demand is weak. Agricultural demand is sluggish after the autumn fertilizer season, and although northeastern winter storage has started, exports are approaching the deadline, so urea is under pressure [5]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral trading**: Range - bound before the middle of the month, and short - selling after the middle of the month without new policies. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see for inter - period arbitrage. - **Options**: The lower bound is 1550, and the upper bound is 1700 [6]. 2. Fundamental Situation Market Review - In September, the ex - factory price of domestic urea in mainstream areas declined unilaterally. The daily output increased to around 191,000 tons as the operating rate of urea enterprises rose. Exports had little impact, and demand was weak. The futures main contract fluctuated widely and ended the month with a decline. The factory - warehouse basis was - 100 yuan/ton [10][11][28]. Supply Analysis - New Additions Mostly in the Second Half of the Year - From 1 - September 2025, 360 tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation. The total annual new capacity in 2025 is expected to reach about 4 million tons, with the total capacity reaching around 8.26 million tons by the end of the year. In October, coal prices are expected to be weak, and urea production profits will continue to narrow. The daily output is expected to remain around 200,000 tons, and enterprise inventories are likely to accumulate [32][34][43]. Export Impact Gradually Fading - India still has a large urea gap, but its import demand may decrease slightly in 2025. Urea exports are expected to accelerate in August and may increase significantly in October [51][55][59]. Demand Expected to Be Released in October, and Macro - level Stimulus Policies Expected - The macro - economic recovery is slow. In October, industrial demand for urea, such as from the melamine industry, is unlikely to be strong. Agricultural demand for urea will gradually end after the autumn fertilizer season, and the support for urea prices from demand will weaken after mid - October [61][75][82]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Comprehensive Analysis - In October, the supply of urea will continue to increase, and demand will be weak. Agricultural demand is softening, and exports are approaching the deadline, so urea remains under pressure [88]. Strategy Recommendation - **Unilateral trading**: Range - bound before the middle of the month, and short - selling after the middle of the month without new policies. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see for inter - period arbitrage. - **Options**: The lower bound is 1550, and the upper bound is 1700 [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures market has stabilized at the bottom of the range, with a slight weekly increase, but the spot market continues to decline, the basis weakens, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuates at a low level. The supply has recovered, but demand lacks drive, and the overall market sentiment remains weak. Prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock in the short term [12]. - Fundamentally, domestic urea plant operating rate has increased, production is at a high level, demand is average, and corporate inventories are rising. The market is currently characterized by low valuation and weak drive, and there is no significant one - sided trend. It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [12]. 3. Summaries According to the Catalog 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Review**: The futures market stabilized at the bottom of the range, with a slight weekly increase, while the spot market continued to decline, the basis weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated at a low level. The supply recovered, but demand lacked drive, and the market sentiment was weak. Prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock in the short term [12]. - **Fundamentals** - **Supply**: The domestic urea plant operating rate this week was 85.58%, a 4.36% increase from the previous week. Both coal - based and gas - based operating rates rebounded. Daily production rose to 199,300 tons and will remain high in the short term [12]. - **Demand**: The spot market weakened further, and profits from all processes fell to low levels. The pre - order days of enterprises were 6.71 days, a 0.53 - day increase from the previous week. The operating rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27%, a 3.36% decrease from the previous week, mainly due to seasonal decline. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and exports and pre - orders before the festival provide some support [12]. - **Valuation**: Export profits are high, and the domestic market is relatively undervalued. Urea valuation is low [12]. - **Inventory**: Corporate inventories were 1.2182 million tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period last year. Port inventories were 496,300 tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week [12]. - **Market Logic**: Supply and demand remain weak, the spot market continues to decline, and the current situation is characterized by low valuation and weak supply - demand, with narrowing price fluctuations [12]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see or look for long - position opportunities on dips [12]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contracts**: The 09 contract closed at 1,740, down 4 from the previous week; the 01 contract closed at 1,669, up 8; the 05 contract closed at 1,720, down 2 [13]. - **Spot Market**: Prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei all declined, with Shandong and Henan down 10 each, and Hebei down 30 [13]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread fluctuated at a low level [12]. 3.3. Profit and Inventory - **Production Profits**: Profits from fixed - bed, water - coal slurry, and gas - based production continued to decline [28]. - **Inventory** - **Enterprise Inventory**: Corporate inventories were 1.2182 million tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period last year [12]. - **Port Inventory**: Port inventories were 496,300 tons, a 52,900 - ton increase from the previous week [12]. 3.4. Supply Side - **Urea Capacity**: Some new production capacity was put into operation in 2024 and 2025 [40]. - **Urea Operating Rate**: The operating rate increased rapidly, with both coal - based and gas - based operating rates rising [12][42]. - **Device Maintenance**: Many enterprises carried out routine, loss - based, and policy - based maintenance, and some enterprises have planned maintenance in October [45][46]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Consumption**: Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and exports and pre - orders before the festival provide some support [12]. - **Compound Fertilizers**: The operating rate declined seasonally, but profits improved [53]. - **Nitrogen Source Price Ratio**: The price ratios of urea to synthetic ammonia, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and monoammonium phosphate are presented in the report [57]. - **Melamine**: The operating rate, profits, and export volume data of melamine are provided [59][60][63]. - **Terminal Demand**: Data on the export volume of plywood, housing construction, and real - estate transaction area are presented [69][73]. - **Export**: Export profits are good, and data on the export volume of urea, ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride, and other fertilizers are provided [79][80][82]. 3.6. Options - Related - Data on the trading volume, open interest, PCR, and volatility of urea options are presented [91][93][100]. 3.7. Industrial Structure Diagram - Diagrams of the urea industry chain, research framework, and industry chain characteristics are provided [103][105][107]. - A summary of the seasonal demand for chemical fertilizers in different regions in China and major countries around the world is given, showing that the demand for chemical fertilizers has obvious seasonal characteristics [110].

Core Viewpoint - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) has seen a stock price increase of over 7%, currently trading at 7.81 HKD, with a transaction volume of 33.22 million HKD, following the announcement of the successful production launch of its Jiangxi subsidiary's industrial chain extension project, which has a designed annual capacity of 600,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 1.2 million tons of controlled-release fertilizers [1] Group 1 - The successful launch of the Jiangxi base's project will leverage existing market and locational advantages, enhancing efficient capacity utilization and reinforcing cost leadership [1] - The company aims to increase market share while generating incremental cash flow, contributing to high-quality and sustainable development, thereby enhancing overall competitiveness and brand influence [1] - Huaxin Securities highlights that the company maintains a leading position in production scale and operational capability domestically while steadily advancing strategic layout [1] Group 2 - The second phase of the Jiangxi base project and the new chemical materials project at the Xinxiang base are expected to commence production in Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, respectively [1] - New bases in Guangxi and Qundong are progressing as planned, with full capacity release expected by 2027, leading to cash flow exceeding capital expenditures [1] - The company is positioned to achieve a positive cycle of investment, output, and development, establishing a stronger scale and cost advantage in the upcoming industry development cycle for sustainable long-term value growth [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heart and Heart Fertilizer (01866) has seen a stock price increase of over 7%, currently trading at 7.81 HKD, following the announcement of the successful production launch of its Jiangxi subsidiary's industrial chain extension project, which is expected to enhance production capacity and competitive advantage [1] Group 1: Production and Capacity - The Jiangxi subsidiary's project has a designed annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of synthetic ammonia and 1.2 million tons of controlled-release fertilizers [1] - The successful launch of this project is expected to leverage the existing market and geographical advantages of the Jiangxi base, improving efficient capacity utilization and reinforcing cost leadership [1] Group 2: Strategic Development - The company is maintaining its leading production scale and operational capabilities while steadily advancing its strategic layout [1] - Upcoming projects include the second phase of the Jiangxi base and a new chemical materials project in Xinxiang, both set to commence production in Q3 2025 and Q1 2026, respectively [1] - The company anticipates that by 2027, all in-progress capacities will be fully released, leading to cash flow exceeding capital expenditures, thus creating a positive cycle of investment, output, and development [1] Group 3: Competitive Positioning - The company aims to solidify its scale and cost advantages to occupy a more favorable position in the new development cycle of the industry, ensuring long-term sustainable value growth [1]

2025 . 9 . 2 8 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | 产业链 | | | 2025年9月19日-9月 2025年9月26日-10 | 2025年10月3日-10 | 2025年10月10日-10月 | 备注 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 25日 | 月2日 | 月9日 | 16日 | | | 供应 | 周度日均产量：万 | 20.02 | 20.00 | 20.14 | 19.57 | 上周新增4家企业停车，停车企业恢复3家，本周预计0家 企业计划检修，2家停车企业恢复生产(预估数据来自隆众 | | | 吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 资讯） | | | 农业需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 秋季小麦肥需求 | 当前农业需求陆续释放 | | | | | | | | 202 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on UR01 - 05 when it is high; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - The pre - holiday stocking sentiment in the urea market is difficult to sustain, and attention should be paid to the dynamic changes in exports. The domestic spot market of urea sees manufacturers reducing prices to attract orders. Although the transaction volume has improved after prices in Shandong and Henan fell below previous lows, the sustainability is weak. Domestic demand is weak, and the inventory in urea factories continues to accumulate. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply and demand of urea remain relatively loose. The export side still has a significant impact on the sentiment of urea prices. The export window period in September is ongoing, and the export rhythm is accelerating [1][2] Section Summaries Price and Spread - Urea futures prices: The urea main contract closed at 1669 yuan/ton (- 5). Spot prices: The market price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1610 yuan/ton (+ 0), in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton (- 10), and in Jiangsu was 1600 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis of urea in Shandong was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), in Henan was - 59 yuan/ton (+ 5), and in Jiangsu was - 49 yuan/ton (+ 5). Urea production profit was 70.0 yuan/ton (- 10.0), and export profit was 1069.6 yuan/ton (- 88.4) [1] Upstream Supply - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of enterprises was 85.58% (unchanged). The urea production is running at a high level [1][2] Downstream Demand - As of September 28, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 35.27% (- 3.36%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 60.58% (+ 3.8%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 6.71 days (+ 0.5). The domestic demand for urea is weak. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers shows low enthusiasm for purchasing, with sporadic purchases at low prices, and melamine has rigid - demand purchases [1][2] Urea Inventory - As of September 28, 2025, the in - factory inventory of enterprises was 121.8 million tons (+ 5.3), and the port inventory was 49.6 million tons (- 2.0). The in - factory inventory of urea continues to accumulate, mainly in Inner Mongolia [1][2]