Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that due to the continuous increase in market share, the adjusted EBITDA forecasts for Melco International Development for 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 2% to HKD 14.01 billion and HKD 13.45 billion respectively [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a 5x EV/adjusted EBITDA for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 48% compared to the current stock price [1] Group 2 - In Q1 2025, Melco Resorts reported net revenue of USD 1.232 billion, an increase of 11% year-on-year and 3% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 89% of Q1 2019 levels [2] - The adjusted property EBITDA for Q1 2025 was USD 341 million, up 14% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus estimate of USD 315 million [2] - The performance is attributed to the increase in market share at City of Dreams and Studio City in Macau [2] Group 3 - Management indicated that the market share in Macau reached 15.7% in April 2025, with high-end mass gaming continuing to drive performance growth [3] - The show "The House of Dancing Water" premiered at City of Dreams on May 7, 2025 [3] - Management expects the reinvestment rate in the Macau gaming industry to stabilize compared to a year ago [3] Group 4 - During the May Day Golden Week in 2025, the betting volume in Macau properties was strong, with a 20% year-on-year increase in mass gaming at City of Dreams, supported by a 30% increase in property foot traffic [4] - The win amount from rated customers in Macau properties increased by 12% year-on-year [4]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces initial resistance at 23,000 points due to increased tariffs on Chinese imports announced by the US government, while expectations rise for the Chinese government to implement measures to stimulate economic growth and stabilize capital markets [2][3] - The People's Bank of China is reportedly relaxing restrictions on gold imports to ease the appreciation of the yuan, and there are plans to promote a new sales system for newly built homes to restore buyer confidence [3][8] Company News - Semiconductor company SMIC reported a 1.6 times year-on-year increase in first-quarter profit, with revenue expected to decline by 4% to 6% in the second quarter [10] - Huahong Semiconductor experienced an 88% drop in first-quarter profit, despite a 17.6% increase in sales revenue [10] - Galaxy Entertainment's first-quarter net revenue rose by 6%, driven by a 13.61% increase in total gaming revenue [10] - Unified Enterprises China reported a 32% increase in after-tax profit for the first quarter [10] - BYD aims to achieve 50% of its vehicle sales from overseas markets by 2030, focusing on expansion in Europe and Latin America [10] - Dongfeng Group's vehicle sales fell by 21% in the first four months of the year, while new energy vehicle sales increased by 27.73% [10][11] Economic Indicators - In April, retail sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 37%, with a penetration rate of 52.3% [8] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the personal housing provident fund loan rates in major cities, aiming to support the housing market [8] - The first batch of securities companies' sci-tech bonds is set to be issued, with a total scale exceeding 16 billion yuan, targeting funding for strategic emerging industries [8] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 22,776, up 0.37% year-to-date, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 17.03% [5] - The US stock market saw gains of 0.6% to 1.1% across major indices, influenced by trade agreements between the US and UK [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [3]. Core Insights - The industry fundamentals are expected to remain under pressure in 2024, with most sectors and companies still significantly affected by macroeconomic factors. However, a number of companies are emerging that are successfully navigating the challenges of consumer downgrade by upgrading from categories to quality and then to brand [1][2]. - The report highlights that companies with strong brand attributes are likely to continue outperforming as the market transitions from price-performance to quality-price comparisons [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free sales in Hainan are gradually stabilizing, with the implementation of the Hainan closure policy expected to benefit the duty-free sector. The market is seeing improvements in channel and supply chain capabilities, leading to a stable outlook for profitability [2][49]. - Key companies to watch include China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing [2]. 2. Tourism and Gaming - The tourism sector shows strong resilience in demand, becoming a crucial driver for domestic consumption. The recovery in inbound and outbound travel is significant, with a focus on new consumption scenarios and the silver-haired tourism market [2][3]. - Recommended companies include Jiuhua Tourism, Lingnan Holdings, and Sands China [2]. 3. Hotel Industry - The hotel sector is experiencing weak business travel demand, leading to pressure on RevPAR. However, leisure demand remains resilient, and leading companies are enhancing profitability through brand matrix validation and supply chain optimization [3][72]. - Companies to focus on include Huazhu Group, Atour, and Jinjiang Hotels [3]. 4. Restaurant Sector - Leading restaurant companies are demonstrating strong supply chain negotiation and profitability advantages. The overall supply in the restaurant industry is optimizing, with a competitive trend in price-performance [3][7]. - Notable companies include Mixue Ice City, KFC, and Haidilao [3][7]. 5. Cosmetics and Medical Aesthetics - The cosmetics sector is seeing a shift in focus towards profitability, with companies restructuring their product and channel strategies. High-growth companies are expected to achieve both revenue and profit increases [7][23]. - Key players include Juzhibio, Shumei, and Marubi [7][23]. 6. General Retail - The retail sector is undergoing digital upgrades and operational adjustments, with a focus on essential demand and cash flow stability. Companies like Yonghui Supermarket and Multi-Point Intelligence are recommended [8][30]. - The report also highlights the ongoing challenges in the jewelry sector due to rising gold prices [8][30]. 7. Overall Market Performance - The consumer services sector is expected to face challenges, with a projected performance of -8.70% in 2024. However, the beauty and personal care sector is anticipated to recover with a growth of +8.15% in 2025 [11][19].

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment Group reported a solid performance for Q1 2025, driven by diverse entertainment offerings and property enhancements, despite geopolitical instability and economic slowdown [2][3][37]. Financial Performance - For Q1 2025, the group recorded a net revenue of HKD 11.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1% [15][19]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the same period was HKD 3.3 billion, up 16% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter [11][15]. - The overall gaming revenue in Macau for Q1 2025 was HKD 56 billion, slightly up year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 76% of 2019 levels [2][14]. Business Segments - The group's flagship property, "Galaxy Macau™," contributed significantly with a net revenue of HKD 9.1 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year [21][23]. - The adjusted EBITDA for "Galaxy Macau™" was HKD 3 billion, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [21][23]. - The non-gaming segment continues to play a crucial role, with various entertainment events attracting visitors, leading to a 64% year-on-year increase in visitor numbers to "Galaxy Macau™" [4][38]. Development and Expansion - The new luxury hotel, Galaxy Hotel Capella, commenced trial operations in May 2025, expected to enhance the group's market share and luxury offerings [7][39]. - Ongoing construction of the fourth phase of development focuses on non-gaming facilities, including entertainment and family-friendly amenities, set to be completed by 2027 [33][39]. - The group is exploring overseas opportunities, including potential developments in Thailand [39][40]. Market Overview - Visitor numbers to Macau reached 9.9 million in Q1 2025, an 11% increase year-on-year, with mainland Chinese visitors growing by 15% [14][37]. - The Macau government continues to promote economic diversification and support non-gaming investments, aligning with the group's strategy [3][37].

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment reported first-quarter revenue of HKD 11.2 billion, slightly below the forecast of HKD 11.22 billion [1] Company Summary - The company's first-quarter revenue was HKD 11.2 billion, which indicates a minor shortfall compared to market expectations [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 6.80 [5][6]. Core Insights - The company's GGR and EBITDA margin have declined quarter-on-quarter, but the overall revenue has increased. The decline in GGR is attributed mainly to a decrease in win rates, particularly in the VIP segment. However, the company has reported an increase in turnover and stable market share, which contributed to a stock price increase of approximately 2% on May 7 [1][4]. - The company's Q1 2025 net revenue was USD 870 million, down 13% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was USD 250 million, down 26% year-on-year and 14% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 65% of the level in 2019 [1][2]. - The strong visitor flow during the May Day holiday is expected to support the recovery of the gaming business. Daily average visitors reached 170,000, significantly exceeding the tourism bureau's forecast [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 gross gaming revenue (GGR) was USD 890 million, recovering to 61% of Q1 2019 levels, compared to the industry average of 76%. VIP gross revenue was USD 120 million, recovering to 15% of Q1 2019 levels, while mass market gross revenue was USD 710 million, recovering to 122% of Q1 2019 levels [2][4]. - The EBITDA margin for the company was 29.1%, compared to 30.9% in Q1 2019 and 34.0% in Q4 2024 [1][2]. Market Trends - The company is facing intensified competition in the gaming industry, with a noticeable trend towards individual customers. To adapt, the company is increasing the number of slot machines to enhance coverage of long-tail customers [3][4]. - The company plans to invest USD 700-800 million in 2025-2026 for the development of entertainment centers and performance projects to enhance the overall resort experience [3][4]. Valuation Adjustments - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 6.80, reflecting a 7% discount based on the average EV/EBITDA of 8.4x for Hong Kong gaming companies. The adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2025 and 2026 has been reduced by 3.4% and 3.7%, respectively [4][5].

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks opened significantly higher but closed with a slight increase of 0.13% in the Hang Seng Index, indicating a lack of sustained investor enthusiasm despite positive catalysts [1] - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market, alongside a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates to 1.4% [3] Industry Insights - The relationship between China and Europe is beginning to improve, with both sides agreeing to lift restrictions on mutual exchanges, potentially benefiting sectors like power batteries and wind power components [2] - Companies like Goldwind Technology (02208) are seeing an increase in overseas orders, which now account for 14% of total backlog, indicating a growing market share in international markets [2] Company Developments - China Gold International (02099) reported a significant turnaround with a 64.69% increase in revenue and a 346% rise in net profit for 2024, driven by rising gold and copper prices and the resumption of production at the Jiama mine [8] - The company plans to distribute a special dividend of $0.03 per share on June 18, 2025, reflecting its improved financial health [8] - Jiama mine's production capacity is expected to increase significantly, with copper production projected to reach 63,000 to 67,000 tons by 2025, alongside a decrease in all-in sustaining costs (AISC) [9] Stock Market Reactions - Major brokerages like CITIC Securities (06030) and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (00388) are expected to benefit from the recent policy changes aimed at supporting capital markets [4] - The market showed a mixed response to the announcements, with some sectors like military and gold stocks performing well, while real estate stocks remained stagnant [4][7]

· 2025 年 5 月 7 日 国都港股操作导航 | 海外市场重要指数 | 收市 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业指数 | 40,829.00 | -0.95% | | 标普 500 指数 | 5,606.91 | -0.77% | | 纳斯达克综合指数 | 17,689.66 | -0.87% | | 英国富时 100 指数 | 8,597.42 | 0.01% | | 德国 DAX 指数 | 23,249.65 | -0.41% | | 日经 225 指数 | 36,830.69 | 1.04% | | 台湾加权指数 | 20,522.59 | -0.05% | | 内地股市 | | | | 上证指数 | 3,316.11 | 1.13% | | 深证成指 | 10,082.34 | 1.84% | | 香港股市 | | | | 恒生指数 | 22,662.71 | 0.70% | | 国企指数 | 8,261.61 | 0.37% | | 红筹指数 | 3,788.52 | 0.01% | | 恒生科技指数 | 5,239.50 | -0.09% | | AH 股溢 ...

Group 1 - Wynn Macau's parent company, Wynn Resorts, Limited, reported a revenue of approximately $127 million for its Macau operations in Q1 2025, a year-over-year decrease of 38.27% [1] - Adjusted property EBITDAR for Wynn Macau in Q1 2025 was about $25.2 million, down 25.76% compared to the previous year [1] - The operating revenue for Wynn Palace in Q1 2025 was $535.9 million, a decrease of $51 million from $586.9 million in Q1 2024 [1] Group 2 - Wynn Macau's operating revenue for Q1 2025 was $330 million, down $81.8 million from $411.7 million in Q1 2024 [2] - Adjusted property EBITDAR for Wynn Macau in Q1 2025 was $90.2 million, compared to $137.2 million in Q1 2024 [2] - The percentage of table win for the mass market was 18.7% in Q1 2025, lower than 19.4% in Q1 2024 [2]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) launched the "Tech Company Fast Track" to facilitate the listing of specialized technology and biotech companies, allowing them to submit applications confidentially [10][11]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.7% to 22,662.71 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.09% to 5,239.5 points, with a total market turnover of HKD 213.368 billion [2]. - Macau's gaming revenue for April 2025 was MOP 18.85 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.7% but a month-on-month decrease of 4.07% [4]. Group 2 - Major airline stocks surged during the "May Day" holiday, with China Eastern Airlines rising by 7.3% and China Southern Airlines by 6.56% [5]. - The number of visitors entering Macau from May 1 to May 5 reached 3.754 million, averaging 170,000 daily, with the majority entering through the Gongbei Port [3]. - CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) is preparing for its listing in Hong Kong, with significant projects underway in Hungary, Spain, and Indonesia, and holds a 36.5% market share in global energy storage battery shipments by 2024 [7][10].