Core Viewpoint - Mongolian Coal (00975) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping nearly 18% during trading, with a current decrease of 14.51% to HKD 12.2, and a trading volume of HKD 259 million [1] Group 1: Government Agreements - The Prime Minister of Mongolia, L. Oyun-Erdene, signed preliminary agreements with several mining companies regarding revenue distribution, where 60% of the profits from specific mines will be returned to the Mongolian public through a national wealth fund [1] - The agreement aims to enhance corporate social responsibility and ensure fair distribution of national resource revenues [1] Group 2: Company Clarification - Mongolian Coal issued a clarification regarding recent media reports, confirming that its subsidiaries ER and KEX signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the Mongolian government [1] - According to the memorandum, the requirement for state ownership interests in strategic mines will be waived, replaced by a special royalty linked to market prices, allowing the government to enjoy 60% of the cumulative economic benefits from the mines [1]

Core Viewpoint - Mongolian Coal (00975) experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping nearly 18% during trading, with a current price of 12.2 HKD and a trading volume of 259 million HKD [1] Group 1: Government Agreements - The Prime Minister of Mongolia, L. Oyun-Erdene, signed preliminary agreements with several mining companies regarding revenue distribution [1] - The agreements stipulate that 60% of the revenue from specific mining projects will be returned to the Mongolian public through a national wealth fund, promoting corporate social responsibility and fair distribution of resource revenues [1] Group 2: Company Clarification - Mongolian Coal issued a clarification regarding recent media reports, confirming that its subsidiaries ER and KEX signed a non-binding memorandum of understanding with the Mongolian government [1] - The memorandum states that the requirement for national ownership rights in strategic mines will be waived, replaced by a special royalty linked to market prices, allowing the government to enjoy 60% of the cumulative economic benefits from the mines [1]

| 品种 | 价格 | 环比（%） | 同比（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | | | | 动力煤（发热量5000-5500大卡） | 776 | -0.1 | -5.1 | | 二号无烟块煤（2号，洗选块煤） | 1134 | -0.4 | -9.8 | | 柴油（0#） | 6953 | 1.0 | -13.2 | | 汽油（92#） | 8385 | 1.7 | -12.0 | | 螺纹钢（Φ16-25mm） | 3350 | -0.3 | -7.6 | | 高速线材（Φ6.5mm） | 3551 | -0.1 | -6.6 | ...

Core Viewpoint - China Shenhua (601088) plans to acquire equity stakes in 12 core enterprises under its controlling shareholder, China Energy Group, for a total consideration of 133.598 billion yuan, marking the first major asset restructuring in the A-share market under the revised "2+5+5" simplified review process since its implementation [1][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - The acquisition will be financed through a combination of issuing A-shares (30%) and cash payments (70%), with cash payments amounting to 93.519 billion yuan and the issuance of 1.363 billion shares at 29.4 yuan per share, representing 6.42% of the total share capital post-transaction [3]. - The target assets include 100% stakes in various companies such as Guoyuan Power, Xinjiang Energy, and others, with total assets of 233.423 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.428 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2024 [3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The restructuring is expected to significantly enhance China Shenhua's capacity and resource reserves in its core business areas, improving resource security and industrial synergy, while laying a solid foundation for advancing clean production and optimizing capacity structure [1][5]. - The transaction is aligned with regulatory policies aimed at supporting listed companies in enhancing investment value through mergers and acquisitions, exemplifying a model for similar major asset restructurings [4]. Group 3: Financial Impact - Post-transaction, China Shenhua anticipates an increase in its basic earnings per share, projected to rise to 3.15 yuan per share in 2024, reflecting a 6.10% increase, and to 1.54 yuan per share in the first seven months of 2025, indicating a 4.40% increase [6]. - The acquisition will enhance the company's operational scale, with coal reserves expected to increase by 64.72% and recoverable coal reserves by 97.71%, alongside significant increases in coal production and power generation capacity [5].

Group 1 - The coal ETF (515220) experienced a decline of 1.12%, closing at 1.151 yuan with a trading volume of 303 million yuan [1] - Major holdings in the coal ETF showed mixed performance, with China Shenhua down 2.42%, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry down 2.44%, and Yanzhou Coal Mining down 0.80%, while Shanxi Coking Coal increased by 0.28% [1] - The coal ETF's performance benchmark is the CSI Coal Index return, managed by Guotai Asset Management, with a return of 172.28% since its inception on January 20, 2020, and a return of 6.49% over the past month [1]

Group 1: Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's revenue was 3.829 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.21% [1] - The loss attributable to the company's owners during the same period was 126 million yuan, which is a reduction compared to the previous year's loss [1] - The company's main business includes energy products such as coke and LNG, with performance significantly affected by fluctuations in raw material prices [1] Group 2: Production and Business Development - In the first half of 2025, the company produced approximately 1.58 million tons of coke and about 33,900 tons of LNG [1] - The hydrogen energy segment saw the addition of two hydrogen refueling stations, with hydrogen sales increasing by 224% year-on-year [1] Group 3: Stock Performance - Despite the company's losses, its stock price experienced significant volatility between January and February 2026, with a single-day increase of 9.68% on January 14, 2026, and a decrease of 4.42% on February 13, 2026, resulting in a daily fluctuation of 10.62% [2] - The coal sector, to which the company belongs, saw a decline of 2.32% on February 13, 2026, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.09% during the same period [2] Group 4: Technical Indicators - On February 13, 2026, the MACD indicator for the company showed a divergence value of -0.038, indicating a position in the negative range [3] - The Bollinger Bands' middle line was at 1.162 HKD, with the stock price close to the lower band at 1.01 HKD, reflecting weak short-term market sentiment [3]

Group 1 - The overnight decline in foreign markets led to a lower opening for A-shares, but there was initial resilience observed in the market with certain sectors showing strength [1] - The non-ferrous metals and gold sectors opened lower but rebounded, indicating that bullish funds are reluctant to exit the market [1] - The technology sector, which had performed well previously, also showed positive movement early in the day, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board index turning positive within three minutes [1] Group 2 - After 11 AM, the coal, oil, and entertainment sectors hit new lows, negatively impacting market sentiment [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new low for the day, but the trading volume did not significantly change, which is a point of concern [1] - With only two hours left in trading for the year of the Snake, there are potential buying opportunities if the market does not experience a significant downturn [1]

Group 1 - The national production material market prices decreased by 0.3% from February 2 to February 8 compared to the previous week [1] Group 2 - Non-ferrous metal prices slightly declined, with aluminum, zinc, and copper decreasing by 3.8%, 1.4%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Steel prices continued to fall, with rebar, hot-rolled strip steel, and ordinary medium plate priced at 3350 yuan, 3510 yuan, and 3627 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.2% respectively [2] - Coal prices showed a slight decrease, with anthracite, thermal coal, and coking coal priced at 1134 yuan, 776 yuan, and 1048 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.4%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 3 - Rubber prices experienced a slight decline, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber both decreasing by 0.1% [3] - Basic chemical raw material prices showed minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid increasing by 1.1%, while soda ash, polypropylene, and methanol decreased by 1.2%, 0.8%, and 0.6% respectively [3] - Fertilizer prices saw a slight increase, with compound fertilizer and urea rising by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively [3] Group 4 - Wholesale prices of finished oil slightly increased, with 95-octane gasoline, 92-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel rising by 1.8%, 1.7%, and 1.0% respectively [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction of coal and coke is general. The overall sentiment in the ferrous metal market is weak, and prices are running weakly. In the last week before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to controlling position risks [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices continued to run in a weak and volatile manner, with a reduced amplitude, and the prices were close to the lower edge of the recent volatile range. Due to the seasonal off - season, the market trading sentiment cooled down, and the overall trend of the ferrous metal sector was weak [3] Fundamental Analysis - This week, the scope of domestic coal mine shutdowns for holidays expanded, and market activity further cooled down. Coke and steel enterprises basically completed their inventory replenishment, and traders began to take holidays. The market trading atmosphere was cold, and the auction price continued to decline. Due to the supply contraction caused by coal mine holidays and the low procurement demand of coke and steel enterprises, the market was characterized by weak supply and demand, and the upstream pit - mouth inventory changed little [3] - This week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.808 million tons and 743,000 tons respectively, a week - on - week decrease of 118,000 tons and 12,000 tons respectively [3] - At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal decreased slightly last week. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed during the 2026 Spring Festival, from the first to the fourth day of the first lunar month (February 17 - 20), and will be normally closed on February 15 and February 22 (Sundays) [3] - On the demand side, the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills increased steadily. This week, the average daily pig iron output increased to about 2.305 million tons [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views For Coking Coal - The coking coal market is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. The supply will experience a seasonal contraction as some mines start to take holidays and reduce production, while the demand is weak with only some rigid - demand purchases. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the post - Spring Festival destocking speed and macro expectations [3]. For Coke - The coke market is also expected to oscillate. After the first round of price increase, the profit is good. The supply is stable, and the demand is not strongly driven. The supply - demand drive of coke itself is not obvious. After the Spring Festival, the recovery of hot metal production should be monitored [4]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal Spot Market - Near the Spring Festival, the market trading is light. Some traders and coal washing plants are on holiday. The downstream's acceptance of high prices is low, and most of the auction market transactions are at reduced prices. The pit - mouth coal price is stable with a weak trend. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Anze, Shanxi has dropped to 1,570 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong is 1,400 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere at the Mongolian coal port is cold, with high customs clearance and large inventory pressure. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1,010 - 1,030 yuan/ton [9][16]. Spread and Basis - The current conversion of Mongolian coal into warehouse receipts is about 1,150 yuan/ton, and the futures price is slightly at a discount. The basis has strengthened as the futures price has oscillated and declined recently [3][35]. Supply - The coal mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded to 88.3%, a week - on - week increase of 1%. The coal mine operation has continued to recover and is currently at a high level. However, since this week, some mines have entered the holiday state, and the supply has shrunk significantly. The average daily customs clearance at Ganqimaodu last week was 1,148 vehicles, and the Mongolian coal supply is still at a relatively high level [3][48]. Demand - Downstream coke and steel enterprises only maintain on - demand transportation [3]. Inventory - The upstream mine's inventory is low, and the downstream coke and steel enterprises have fully replenished their stocks and will mainly consume the previous inventory [3]. Coke Spot Market - Coke enterprises have raised the price by one round. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat price. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi is about 1,520 - 1,535 yuan/ton. The wet - quenched warehouse receipt at the coke port is 1,600 yuan/ton, and the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched warehouse receipt is 1,720 yuan/ton [4][94]. Basis and Monthly Spread - Recently, the futures price has oscillated and declined, at a discount to the dry - quenched warehouse receipt. The 5 - 9 monthly spread has oscillated [100]. Supply - After the price increase, coke enterprises have good profits, and the operation is relatively stable. The coke production capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34% [4]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 228.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 tons. The steel mills' profitability is lower than the same period last year, and the blast furnace operation before the Spring Festival is stable but at a low level [4][105]. Profit - After the first round of price increase, the profitability of coke enterprises has improved, and the current estimated overall profitability of coking is about 70 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Coke enterprises have no inventory pressure, and the downstream has fully replenished stocks and will mainly consume the previous inventory [4]. Balance Sheet Coking Coal - The production, import, consumption, surplus, and inventory data from 2025/6 to 2026/6 are presented, along with the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption [140]. Coke - The production, import, export, consumption, surplus, and inventory data from 2025/6 to 2026/6 are presented, along with the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption [142].