炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：金十数据 瑞银全球股票策略团队近期发布了一份清单，列出了10个挑战市场共识的观点，并指出核心预测可能在 哪些方面偏离轨道。 在2025年，市场的共识被证明在"美国例外论"、中国股票、美元表现，以及人工智能（AI）对软件等行 业的颠覆性影响上表现得"非常错误"。现在，该团队概述了今年可能颠覆投资者预期的10个新情景—— 从潜在的市场泡沫到主权债务危机。 意外1：市场先暴涨后暴跌 虽然瑞银的核心观点是将年底的MSCI AC世界指数目标定在1130点，但该行警告称，形成泡沫的全部7 个先决条件现在都已经具备。 根据瑞银的报告，生成式AI的迅速普及已将季度年化生产率增长推高至4.9%。如果生产率从2028年起 增长2%，标普500指数的公允价值可能达到8600点。 然而，最终的崩溃可能由科技过度投资、财政担忧导致的债券收益率飙升，或移民减少导致的美国工资 增长加速触发。 意外2：主权债务危机与债券收益率再创新高 瑞银预计，到年底美国10年期国债收益率将处于4%的水平，但在意外情景中，收益率可能超过上一个 周期5.04%的高点。 报告指出， ...

Market Overview - The market has experienced increased volatility this week, with sectors such as liquor and food and beverage showing signs of rebound from low levels. The net inflow of 180 million yuan into the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) indicates a potential increase in market risk aversion [1] - As of the latest data, the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) has risen by 0.39% during the trading session, with several constituent stocks, including Zoomlion Heavy Industry and Conch Cement, seeing gains of over 3% [1] Dividend Strategy Insights - The latest dividend yield for the CSI Dividend Index is 5.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield of 1.82%, highlighting the relative attractiveness of high dividend investments [2] - According to Guotai Junan Securities, the dividend strategy has underperformed the market due to a shift in investor focus towards growth sectors, particularly in AI-related industries. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, where dividend strategies will still serve as a stabilizing component in investment portfolios [3][21] Investment Recommendations - Long-term investment in high-dividend stocks is recommended, particularly those with a strong history of dividend payments and solid cash flow. The CSI Dividend ETF (515080) has outperformed its benchmark index by 71.28% since its inception, making it a viable option for investors seeking stable returns [5] - The focus of dividend investment should shift from merely seeking high dividend yields to ensuring sustainable dividend-paying capabilities, as this is crucial for long-term value [24] Performance Metrics - The CSI Dividend Index has shown a 40-day return difference of -7.04% compared to the Wind All A Index, indicating a recent recovery but still underperforming relative to the broader market [1][13] - Historical performance data shows that the CSI Dividend Index has delivered returns of 5.60% over the past year and 66.14% over the past decade, while the CSI Dividend Total Return Index has achieved 159.95% over the same period [8]

·········································································································[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 3 Feb 2026 ```··························································································································································································································································· 东南亚可选消费必需消费 Southeast Asia Discretionary Staples 东南亚指数双周报第 17 期：新马泰稳健上行，印尼承压走弱 ASEAN Index Tracking：SG, ML ...

Group 1: Domestic Policy - The unified market policy will become an important policy line for 2026 and the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need to deepen and transcend "involution" [1][5][6] - The focus will be on governance of local government behavior and related reform measures, covering areas such as anti-monopoly, local government investment attraction, and tax system reform [5][6][27] - The policy's impact will extend from industries like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and new energy vehicles to electricity, transportation, technology, and data [5][6] Group 2: Company Analysis - Yum China (09987.HK) - The Western fast food market is expected to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2025, with a growth rate of 10.3%, led by the hamburger segment, which holds a 70.6% market share [8][9] - Yum China maintains a strong market position with a 27.5% share, and the market concentration is high, with the top five companies accounting for 44% of the market [8][9] - The company has a large store network with a low closure rate, reaching 17,514 stores by Q3 2025, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2014 to 2024 [9] - The company has a strong local innovation capability, with 5.75 million members contributing to 57% of sales, and maintains healthy profit margins of 18.5% for KFC and 13.4% for Pizza Hut [9][10] - The company is expected to generate revenues of $11.7 billion, $12.4 billion, and $13.1 billion from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of $900 million, $1 billion, and $1.1 billion respectively, leading to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 18, and 16 times [8][10] Group 3: Real Estate Industry - In January 2026, the top 100 real estate companies saw a 24.7% year-on-year decline in sales, although the decline was less severe than in previous months [18][20] - The sales area also decreased by 29.5% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in the market [18][20] - The top three companies in the industry achieved a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while other segments experienced significant declines [18][20] - Companies focused on first and second-tier cities showed a smaller decline in sales compared to those in lower-tier cities, with a difference of approximately 11% [19][20] - Recommendations include focusing on second-hand housing intermediaries like Beike and quality state-owned enterprises such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [20]

赵晶表示，回顾2025年，公司在全球有利的金属价格环境中，凭借核心矿山的扎实运营释放了资产潜 力，并通过增长项目的稳步推进拓宽了未来增长路径，正稳步朝着全球前十大铜矿公司的目标迈进。 中证报中证网讯(记者黄灵灵)日前，五矿资源发布公告称，预计2025年归属于权益持有人的未经审计税 后净利润约5亿美元至5.2亿美元。公司2024年税后净利润为3.66亿美元，归属于权益持有人的净利润为 1.62亿美元。 五矿资源表示，2025年未经审计重大利润主要得益于Las Bambas(拉斯邦巴斯)矿区与Dugald River(杜加 尔河)矿区的运营表现，以及铜价与贵金属价格高涨的正面影响。 五矿资源行政总裁兼执行董事赵晶此前接受记者采访时表示，公司的铜矿和锌矿都属于世界级矿山，从 矿山所位于的成矿带而言，多个矿山有比较大的增储潜力。以五矿资源核心资产拉斯邦巴斯铜矿为例， 公司对该矿山的勘探工作集中在现有矿坑周边以及深部矿体，勘探范围占比不足其总矿权面积的20%， 公司对该矿山未来增储潜力保持乐观。 持续推进关键项目 核心资产扎实运营 从核心资产运营表现看，五矿资源位于秘鲁的拉斯邦巴斯矿山连续三年稳定运营。2025年，拉斯 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant rebound in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by a reassessment of long-term investment value following a period of panic selling [2][3] - The non-ferrous mining ETF (招商 159690) saw a rise of 1.22%, with leading stocks such as 盛和资源, 湖南黄金, 云南锗业, and 永兴材料 showing notable gains, reflecting a recovery in market sentiment [2][3] Group 2 - Strong macroeconomic and commodity fundamentals are supporting the current cycle, with global liquidity expectations and geopolitical uncertainties providing a solid financial foundation for precious metals like gold, while industrial metals such as copper and aluminum benefit from structural demand due to global energy transition and manufacturing recovery [3] - National policies promoting large-scale equipment upgrades are providing clear demand guidance for downstream applications of non-ferrous metals, shifting market perception from mere cyclical plays to a long-term reassessment of the strategic value of upstream mineral resources [3] - The technical correction has largely released short-term trading risks, leading to renewed interest from funds in non-ferrous mining ETFs, indicating that long-term investors view this adjustment as an opportunity to optimize their positions [3]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced significant volatility, with the Chinese market collectively weakening, particularly in metals and semiconductors, while European markets showed a recovery driven by improved economic sentiment[3] - The U.S. stock market stabilized with a rebound, supported by better-than-expected manufacturing data, alleviating concerns over the next Federal Reserve chair[3] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices dropped over 4% due to reduced conflict risks in Iran and a sharp decline in commodity prices[3] - The U.S. dollar index rose for two consecutive days, reflecting positive manufacturing activity data, while precious metals continued to decline[3] Fixed Income Insights - U.S. Treasury yields increased slightly, with the yield curve flattening; the ISM manufacturing index reached its highest growth rate since 2022[3][30] - Oracle issued $25 billion in bonds to support cloud infrastructure expansion, contributing to a significant increase in global bond issuance[30] Asia-Pacific Market Trends - The Asia-Pacific stock markets generally declined, with South Korea's KOSPI index falling 5.3% and Indonesia's index down 4.9%[20] - India's Nifty index rose 1.1% following the U.S. reduction of tariffs on Indian goods, contrasting with the overall regional downturn[20] Sector Performance - In the U.S., 8 out of 11 S&P sectors rose, with consumer staples leading the market with a 1.58% increase[9] - Conversely, the Hong Kong market saw significant declines in precious metals and technology sectors, with the Hang Seng Index dropping 2.23%[11] Key Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index surpassed expectations at 52.6, indicating stronger economic momentum and reducing expectations for further monetary easing[30] - France's government successfully passed its budget, alleviating political uncertainty and stabilizing market conditions[30]

截至发稿，吴逸累计任职时间6年65天，现任基金资产总规模79.18亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 133.93%， 任职期间最差基金回报-40.88%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本 文出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 责任编辑：小浪快报 数据显示，东财基金旗下1只基金重仓兴业银锡。中证500ETF基金（159337）四季度持有股数8.75万 股，占基金净值比例为0.53%，位居第十大重仓股。根据测算，今日浮亏损失约48.47万元。连续3天下 跌期间浮亏损失117.51万元。 中证500ETF基金（159337）成立日期2024年9月2日，最新规模5.85亿。今年以来收益7.6%，同类排名 748/5562；近一年收益45.95%，同类排名1253/4285；成立以来收益79.97%。 中证500ETF基金（159337）基金经理为吴逸。 2月3日，兴业银锡跌停，截至发稿，报49.83元/股，成交11.73亿元，换手率1.33%，总市值884.80亿 元 ...

本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 2月2日，金属价格下跌趋势缓解，欧洲主要股指悉数抹去此前跌幅，英国富时100指数、法国CAC40指 数、德国DAX30指数、富时意大利MIB指数均实现上涨。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 欧洲股市自1月中旬以来首次创下纪录新高，矿业股同步反弹，旅游休闲股和银行股位居涨幅前列。斯 托克欧洲600指数收盘上涨1%。包括食品和饮料股在内的防御性板块同步上涨，房地产股为表现最差的 板块之一。 矿业股在盘中一度下跌3.5%，最终反弹0.8%。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普准备以120亿美元的种子资金启动 战略性关键矿产储备项目，成为矿业股反弹的触发因素。西班牙IBEX35指数同期触及历史新高。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]