Group 1 - The current Chinese consumer market is experiencing a transformation characterized by "pressure on total volume and structural differentiation," with traditional consumption upgrading and emerging sectors expanding rapidly [2][10] - The emotional characteristics of consumers are becoming more pronounced, with a tendency to seek psychological compensation and cultural resonance through consumption [2][10] - The transformation path of Chinese consumption is highly similar to Japan's "fourth consumption era," which began around 2005, driven by economic, demographic, and psychological factors [2][10] Group 2 - Japan's "fourth consumption era" is marked by a shift from ownership to shared and experiential consumption, emphasizing individual value realization and social connections [3][11] - The transition in Japan is driven by three structural variables: long-term economic stagnation, demographic changes, and shifts in consumer psychology [19][22] - The consumption focus in Japan has shifted from material goods to services and experiences, leading to a restructuring of the industrial landscape [28][30] Group 3 - The concept of Delta G (marginal change in profit growth) is proposed as a key indicator for identifying structural opportunities in the consumer sector [4][44] - The report identifies three investment themes based on Delta G: sectors with improving economic forecasts, those with significant upward revisions in profit predictions, and those with relatively small downward adjustments [4][44] - Specific sectors highlighted for potential investment include personal care products, food processing, and internet e-commerce, among others [4][44][50] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of cultural identity and local values in shaping consumer behavior, suggesting that brands should leverage local cultural narratives to enhance differentiation [43][40] - The rise of the "silver economy" and "single economy" in Japan provides insights for China to develop related industries, such as elder care services and single-person living solutions [39][40] - Sustainable consumption is becoming a strategic necessity for long-term business success, with companies encouraged to integrate environmental considerations throughout the product lifecycle [40][41]

Overall Market - The narrow passenger car production and sales situation for May 2025 shows a total production of 2,279,242 units and wholesale of 2,316,347 units, with retail sales reaching 1,938,079 units [6][10] - The year-on-year growth for narrow passenger cars is 13.1% in production and 13.1% in wholesale, while retail sales have increased by 13.7% [10][12] Vehicle Category Segmentation - The market share changes among different vehicle categories indicate that sedans, MPVs, and SUVs have varying growth rates, with SUVs showing a year-on-year growth of 17.8% in wholesale [15][18] - The total market share for sedans is 50.1%, while MPVs account for 4.6% and SUVs for 45.0% [15][18] Country Segmentation - The market share changes by country show that domestic brands have a significant presence, with a total retail sales of 1,938,079 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.7% [23][24] - The German brands have seen a decline in retail sales, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.5% [23] Brand Positioning Segmentation - The market share for different brand categories shows that mainstream joint ventures hold a significant portion, while luxury brands like BMW and Audi are also notable players [28][31] - The total retail sales for luxury brands have decreased by 18.1% year-on-year, indicating a challenging market environment for high-end vehicles [28][31] Price Positioning Segmentation - The market share for vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan is 12.0%, while those below 300,000 yuan dominate with 88.0% [36][37] - The year-on-year growth for vehicles priced below 300,000 yuan is 11.5%, indicating strong demand in the lower price segment [36][37]

证券研究报告 汽车周观点： 6月第1周乘用车环比-22.6%，继续看好汽车板块 证券分析师 ：黄细里 执业证书编号：S0600520010001 联系邮箱：huangxl@dwzq.com.cn 2025年6月16日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 核心结论 注：若无特殊说明，"本周"均代表2025.6.9-2025.6.15 2 ➢本周复盘总结：六月第一周交强险35.5万辆，环比上周/上月周度-22.6%/-14.8%。 ◼ 本周细分板块涨跌幅排序:SＷ商用载货车(+10.7%) >SW摩托车及其他(+2.0%) >SW 商用载客车(+0.4%) > SW汽车（-0.8%）>SW汽车零部件(-1.6%)> SW乘用车(+2.0 %) 。本周已覆盖标的江淮汽车、春风动力、威迈斯、上汽集团、中国重汽涨幅前五。 （ ◼ 本周团队研究成果：外发AI+汽车智能化系列之十二——理想汽车核心竞争力剖析、精 锻科技、隆鑫通用、福耀玻璃专题第六篇深度。 ◼ 本周行业核心变化：1）多家车企将供应商支付账期调整至60天以内；2）地方补贴暂 停，目前基于我们统计大概补贴受影响城市占总体汽车销量比例低于10%；3）小鹏G 7亮相， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the Chinese automotive market, highlighting the government's intervention to curb price wars and promote high-quality industry growth through measures such as regulating supplier payment terms [4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends and Performance - From January to April, the profit margin of the Chinese automotive industry was 4.1%, increasing to 4.4% in April, compared to 3.9% in Q1 and 3.5% in March, indicating a positive trend [7]. - In May, the retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.932 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.1%, surpassing the level of 1.81 million units in May 2018 [9]. - Cumulative retail sales from January to May reached 8.811 million units, up 9.1% year-on-year [9]. Group 2: Sales Data and Company Performance - In the first five months, sales of Chinese brand passenger vehicles reached 7.562 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.3%, accounting for 68.8% of total passenger vehicle sales [10]. - The top ten automotive groups sold 10.708 million units in total, representing 84% of the overall market, with varying performance among individual companies [11]. - In May, BYD sold 382,476 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.35%, while SAIC Group sold 366,000 units, up 10.25% [13][14]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The article notes that some companies engaged in aggressive pricing strategies, leading to a temporary surge in market activity, but this has raised concerns about sustainability [12]. - The sales performance of major companies varied, with some like Geely and Changan showing significant growth, while others like GAC and Dongfeng experienced declines [14][39]. - New energy vehicle sales are highlighted as a key growth area, with companies like Changan and BYD reporting substantial increases in this segment [29][37].

Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Market - From June 1 to June 8, the national retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 202,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 40% compared to the same period last year, and a month-on-month increase of 4%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market is 58.8%, with cumulative retail sales of 4.559 million units this year, up 34% year-on-year [1][6] - In the same period, the wholesale of new energy vehicles reached 166,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 5% but a month-on-month decrease of 6%. The wholesale penetration rate is 53.5%, with cumulative wholesale of 5.373 million units, a year-on-year increase of 39% [6] Group 2: Consumer Subsidy Policies - Recent news regarding the suspension of national subsidies for consumer goods exchange programs has raised concerns. However, officials from Hubei and Jiangsu stated that the subsidy program will continue until the end of the year, while Chongqing announced that the second phase of the subsidy policy is expected to be introduced in early June [1][6] Group 3: ETF Market Developments - On June 10, the largest ETF product in the market, Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF, announced a dividend distribution, with the total dividend expected to exceed 8 billion yuan [2][11] Group 4: Battery Industry Insights - In May, China's power battery installation volume reached 57.1 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 5.5% and a year-on-year increase of 43.1%. Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 81.6% of the total installation volume, showing a year-on-year growth of 57.7% [7] Group 5: Corporate Actions and Announcements - On June 10, several major automotive companies, including BYD and Geely, committed to standardizing supplier payment terms to within 60 days, aiming to enhance cash flow and collaboration with suppliers [9][11] - On June 10, Vanke announced the sale of 22 million A-shares, raising approximately 146 million yuan, which will be used to supplement the company's liquidity [18]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic wholesale sales of passenger cars in May showed a month-on-month and year-on-year increase, with a notable decrease in inventory by 110,000 units, and strong export performance. It is recommended to focus on companies that are in a new car cycle and are leading in intelligence [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In May, the wholesale sales of passenger cars reached 2.31 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8% and a month-on-month increase of 5.5% [2]. - Cumulative wholesale sales from January to May totaled 10.784 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [2]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - The overall inventory of passenger car manufacturers decreased by 110,000 units in May, compared to a decrease of 90,000 units in the same month last year [2]. - The cumulative inventory for the industry from January to May remained flat compared to the same period last year, marking a change from the continuous inventory reduction seen in the past two years [2]. Group 3: New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Insights - In May, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 52.6%, an increase of 8.0 percentage points year-on-year and 0.9 percentage points month-on-month [3]. - The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in May were 1.216 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 33.0% and a month-on-month increase of 7.0% [3]. - Cumulative sales of new energy vehicles from January to May reached 5.2 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 40.0% [3]. Group 4: Export Performance - In May, the total export of passenger vehicles (including complete vehicles and CKD) was 448,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.5% and a month-on-month increase of 6.0% [3]. - Cumulative exports from January to May reached 2 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [3]. - The export of new energy passenger vehicles was 200,000 units in May, showing a year-on-year increase of 80.9% and accounting for 44.6% of total passenger vehicle exports, an increase of 16.6 percentage points year-on-year [3].

Group 1: Capital Expenditure Cycle Analysis - The capital expenditure (CAPEX) cycle is a dominant driver of industry cycles in China, influencing the relationship between CAPEX, price-to-book (PB) ratio, and return on equity (ROE) [4] - The CAPEX cycle is divided into three stages: Stage 1 (oversupply leads to declining ROE and poor market performance), Stage 2 (declining CAPEX results in rising free cash flow and market rebound), and Stage 3 (supply-side clearing leads to improved ROE and better market performance) [4][14][15] - The PB-ROE model indicates significant investment value in Stage 2 (low PB and improving ROE) and Stage 3 (reasonable PB and steadily rising ROE) [16] Group 2: Market and Industry Comparisons - In Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, the overall capital expenditure of A-share companies (excluding finance and real estate) is contracting, while free cash flow is improving [20] - The median CAPEX/depreciation ratio for secondary industries decreased from 1.35 to 1.29, while the median free cash flow/equity ratio increased from 4.4% to 4.8% [21] - The proportion of secondary industries with free cash flow greater than 0 has significantly increased, indicating a positive trend in cash flow [21][24] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - The consumer sector shows overall CAPEX contraction and slight decline in free cash flow, with CAPEX levels below market averages and free cash flow above market averages [26] - The advanced manufacturing sector also experiences CAPEX contraction, while free cash flow shows slight improvement [4][26] - Eight industries within the consumer sector are highlighted as potential investment opportunities based on supply-side improvements [4][26]

Core Insights - The report highlights the growth in employment and average salaries within listed companies in China, indicating a positive trend in the job market post-pandemic [1][10]. Employment Growth - The total number of employees in listed companies in China exceeded 25 million in 2024, showing a continuous increase since the pandemic [1]. - The average monthly salary for employees in these companies is approximately 10,800 yuan [1]. Industry Employment Distribution - The financial, automotive, construction, real estate, and consumer electronics sectors are the largest employers, accounting for 36.2% of the total employment in listed companies [1]. - State-owned banks employ the most individuals, with 1.655 million employees, representing 6.5% of total employment [1]. - The passenger vehicle sector has seen significant growth, with an employee count of 1.409 million, reflecting a 21.3% increase [1][2]. Sector-Specific Employment Trends - The automotive and consumer electronics industries have contributed significantly to new job creation, with the passenger vehicle sector alone adding 248,000 jobs, which is 38% of the total increase across all industries [2][3]. - Export-related industries have also shown consistent growth, with the export scale surpassing 25 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 7.1% year-on-year increase [3]. Declining Employment Sectors - The insurance and real estate development sectors have experienced a decline in employee numbers, with retail and real estate being the most affected [4][5]. - The general retail sector's employee count has fallen to below 70% of its 2019 levels [5]. Salary Trends - Industries such as telecommunications services, chemical products, and automotive services have seen significant increases in average monthly salaries, with growth rates of 14.9%, 11.0%, and 9.6% respectively [7]. - Conversely, sectors like tourism retail, photovoltaic equipment, and securities have experienced notable salary declines, with reductions of 16.7%, 12.2%, and 9.6% [8]. Market Demand Indicators - Industries such as engineering machinery, bioproducts, and semiconductors are experiencing strong demand, as indicated by the growth in employee numbers and average salaries [9].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - Recent domestic passenger car terminal sales experienced a month-on-month decline of 20% to 360,000 units, but weekly average sales still showed a year-on-year increase of 10% [1][4] - Year-to-date cumulative sales have increased by over 10%, indicating the effectiveness of the vehicle replacement policy [1][4] - The penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 56%, close to this year's high, with an average penetration rate of 53% year-to-date, representing a nearly 20% increase compared to the same period last year [1][5] Market Performance by Price Segment - NEVs priced between 100,000 to 150,000 yuan saw a growth rate of 60%, driven by high-cost performance models such as BYD Qin PLUS DM-i series and Geely Galaxy series [1][6] - Sales of mid-to-high-end NEVs priced above 300,000 yuan remained flat or slightly increased, with some segments even experiencing a decline due to product cycle impacts from leading brands like Li Auto and Aito [1][6] Key Players and Market Share - BYD's terminal sales this week were 54,900 units, a 10% decrease month-on-month, but market share rebounded to around 15% [1][7][8] - The market concentration of the top 10 companies (CR10) decreased to 63%, down from 70% in the second half of last year, indicating increased competition from smaller brands due to subsidy policies [1][9] - Geely, including its Galaxy and Zeekr brands, emerged as a significant competitor with sales of approximately 30,000 units this week [1][10] Competitive Landscape - The overall trend in domestic passenger car demand is showing a steady upward trajectory, with both total and structural sales stabilizing [1][3] - Increasing discounts within the industry are noted, with a recommendation to prioritize technology-driven leading new forces while also tracking mid-to-low-priced, high-demand, and low-valuation car manufacturers [1][3] Other Notable Mentions - Wuling ranked second with total sales of 10,000 units, while Geely ranked third with around 30,000 units [1][10] - Tesla's sales for the period were 8,600 units, with a need to monitor the impact of the new Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature on its supply chain [1][2][10]

对于自主品牌乘用车保持高增长的原因，崔东树认为，这主要得益于自主品牌在新能源车市场和出口市 场获得明显增量。特别是主流车企转型升级表现优异，包括比亚迪（002594）汽车、吉利汽车、奇瑞汽 车、长安汽车等传统车企品牌市场份额提升明显。 6月9日，中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会发布《2025年5月份全国乘用车市场分析》显示，5 月份全国乘用车市场零售193.2万辆，同比增长13.3%。今年以来累计零售881.1万辆，同比增长9.1%。 乘联分会秘书长崔东树表示，与过去几年国内车市零售呈现"前低后高"的走势不同，今年5月车市零售 量较2018年5月销售181万辆的最高水平增长了6%，呈现出强增长态势。 不仅零售，5月乘用车厂商批发和生产均创当月历史新高。5月乘用车生产227.0万辆，同比增长12.6%， 较历史同期高点2024年5月的202万辆高出25万辆；5月全国乘用车厂商批发231.0万辆，同比增长 12.8%。 崔东树表示，受"两新"政策的拉动，春节后车市热度持续走强。在国家促消费政策推动下，很多省市出 台并逐步落实了相应的地方促消费政策，叠加车展等线下活动的全面启动，推动5月车市走势良好。 以旧换 ...