投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 纯碱玻璃周报——2025.06.09 中原期货研究所：化工组 | 作者：刘培洋 | 研究助理：申文 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号：F0290318 | 执业证书编号： F03117458 | | 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 | 0371-58620081 | | liupy_qh@ccnew.com | shenwen_qh@ccnew.com | 01 周度观点汇总 3 1.1 纯碱周度观点——供应压力回升 品种 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险提示 纯碱 1.供应 装置开工率80.76%（+2.19%），氨碱法75.65%（环比+4.24%），联碱法80.41%（+3.87%)；周 产量70.41万吨（+1.91万吨），轻碱产量32.18万吨（+0.66万吨），重碱产量38.22万吨（+1.25 万吨）。 2.需求 纯碱表需70.14万吨（-3.61万吨），轻碱表需35.01万吨（+2.30万吨），重碱表需35.12万吨 （-5.65万吨）。 3.库存 纯碱企业库存162.70万吨（+0.27万吨），轻碱库存79万吨（-2.83万吨），重碱库存 ...

1 水合硫氰酸锂市场概述 1.1 水合硫氰酸锂行业概述及统计范围 1.2 按照不同产品类型，水合硫氰酸锂主要可以分为如下几个类别 1.2.1 不同产品类型水合硫氰酸锂规模增长趋势2021 VS 2025 VS 2031 1.2.2 95%纯度 1.2.3 最低99%纯度 1.2.4 其他 中国水合硫氰酸锂市场应用分析及发展趋势预测报告2025-2031年 本文源自：中赢信合研究网 1.3 从不同应用，水合硫氰酸锂主要包括如下几个方面 1.3.1 不同应用水合硫氰酸锂规模增长趋势2021 VS 2025 VS 2031 1.3.2 电子 1.3.3 医疗 1.3.4 化工 1.3.5 其他 1.4 行业发展现状分析 1.4.1 水合硫氰酸锂行业发展总体概况 1.4.2 水合硫氰酸锂行业发展主要特点 1.4.3 水合硫氰酸锂行业发展影响因素 1.4.4 进入行业壁垒 2.3.1 全球市场水合硫氰酸锂收入（2021-2031） 2 行业发展现状及"十五五"前景预测 2.1 全球水合硫氰酸锂供需现状及预测（2021-2031） 2.1.1 全球水合硫氰酸锂产能、产量、产能利用率及发展趋势（2021-2031） 2.1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Indian government has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on insoluble sulfur imported from China and Japan for a period of five years, following a positive final ruling by the Ministry of Commerce on March 7, 2025 [1] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Duties - The anti-dumping duty for Chinese manufacturers is set at $307 per ton [1] - The duty for Shikoku Chemicals Corporation from Japan is $259 per ton, while other Japanese manufacturers face a duty of $358 per ton [1] - The products affected fall under Indian customs codes 28020010, 38123930, and 38249900 [1] Group 2: Investigation Background - The investigation was initiated on March 27, 2024, based on a request from Oriental Carbon & Chemicals Limited, a domestic company in India [1] - The Ministry of Commerce's positive final ruling was made on March 7, 2025, confirming the need for anti-dumping measures [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Yong'an Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Report Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Analysis Price and Trading Volume - The closing price of the BR main contract on June 6 was 11,300, a daily increase of 340 and a weekly increase of 155 [3]. - The trading volume of the BR main contract on June 6 was 159,507, a daily increase of 59,848 and a weekly increase of 8,184 [3]. - The open interest of the BR main contract on June 6 was 24,880, a daily decrease of 1,396 [3]. Basis and Spread - The basis of cis - butadiene rubber on June 6 was 300, a daily decrease of 140 and a weekly decrease of 55 [3]. - The 6 - 7 month spread of BR on June 6 was 10, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 40 [3]. - The 7 - 8 month spread of BR on June 6 was 145, a daily increase of 20 and a weekly decrease of 5 [3]. Spot and Market Prices - The Shandong market price of BR on June 6 was 11,600, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly increase of 100 [3]. - The Chuanhua market price of BR on June 6 was 11,450, a daily increase of 50 [3]. - The Qilu Petrochemical ex - factory price of BR on June 6 was 11,600, a daily increase of 200 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3]. Processing and Profitability - The spot processing profit of BR on June 6 was - 545, a daily decrease of 157 and a weekly increase of 49 [3]. - The on - screen processing profit of BR on June 6 was - 845, a daily decrease of 17 and a weekly increase of 104 [3]. - The import profit of BR on June 6 was - 82,972, a daily decrease of 1,422 and a weekly increase of 1,042 [3]. - The export profit of BR on June 6 was 199, a daily decrease of 174 and a weekly decrease of 281 [3] Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Analysis Price and Market - The Shandong market price of BD on June 6 was 9,750, a daily increase of 350 [3]. - The Jiangsu market price of BD on June 6 was 9,450, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly decrease of 100 [3]. - The Yangzi Petrochemical ex - factory price of BD on June 6 was 9,500, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 300 [3]. Processing and Profitability - The carbon tetrachloride extraction profit of BD was not available on June 6 [3]. - The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit of BD on June 6 was 736, a daily increase of 100 and a weekly decrease of 170 [3]. - The import profit of BD on June 6 was 318, a daily increase of 343 and a weekly increase of 156 [3]. - The export profit of BD on June 6 was - 744, a daily decrease of 87 and a weekly increase of 1,118 [3] Group 4: Variety - to - Variety and Intra - Variety Spreads Variety - to - Variety Spreads - The RU - BR spread on June 6 was - 11,230, a daily increase of 1,501 and a weekly increase of 3,782 [3]. - The NR - BR spread on June 6 was - 12,855, a daily increase of 1,456 and a weekly increase of 3,697 [3]. - The Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread on June 6 was 2,000, a daily decrease of 100 and a weekly increase of 50 [3]. - The 3L - styrene - butadiene spread on June 6 was 3,150, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 150 [3] Intra - Variety Spreads - The cis - butadiene standard - non - standard price spread on June 6 was 200, a daily decrease of 50 with no weekly change [3]. - The styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread on June 6 was 1,000, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 50 [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The report comprehensively introduces the basic concepts, chemical properties, downstream consumption fields, and production processes of propylene, highlighting its importance in the chemical industry and various influencing factors [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Propylene Basic Concepts - Propylene (C3H6) is a colorless, slightly sweet, flammable gas, belonging to the olefin series. It has specific physical properties such as a melting point of -185°C, a boiling point of -47.68°C, and a low flash point of -108°C. It's usually liquefied for transportation and storage, and is not suitable for long - distance transportation [1] - Chemically, it can undergo addition, oligomerization, coordination polymerization, and substitution reactions, deriving high - value chemicals [2] 2. Downstream Consumption Field Distribution - About 68% of propylene is used to produce polypropylene, which is widely used in packaging, automotive, medical, and textile industries. Other significant downstream products include propylene oxide (8%), acrylonitrile (6%), acrylic acid (4%), octanol (4%), and n - butanol (3%). Emerging demands like photovoltaic adhesive films and lithium - battery separators are driving the upgrade of the propylene consumption structure [3] 3. Propylene Production Processes - **Steam Cracking**: Using petroleum hydrocarbons as raw materials, it accounts for about 60% of global propylene production. It's a traditional mainstream method, with high stability and large - scale production capacity, but high energy consumption and dependence on crude oil prices [6] - **Catalytic Cracking (FCC)**: Using heavy oil as raw materials, it produces gasoline, diesel, and propylene as a by - product. It accounts for about 25% of global propylene production, with high flexibility but relatively low propylene purity [7] - **Coal - to - Olefins (CTO/MTO)**: It's a non - petroleum route, suitable for regions rich in coal and short of oil. China is the largest producer. However, it faces environmental pressure and requires optimization of catalyst life and by - product treatment [9] - **Propane Dehydrogenation (PDH)**: Using propane as the raw material, it has a high - purity propylene product (over 99.5%). The global PDH capacity has been growing rapidly, and China is a major market. It depends on stable and low - cost propane supply and can recycle by - product hydrogen [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various sectors in the A-share market, highlighting the fluctuations in stock indices and the contrasting performances of different industry sectors [1][2][4]. Market Overview - As of June 6, the A-share market showed a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.40% [1]. - The Hong Kong stock market indices also experienced declines, with notable drops in electric vehicle manufacturers such as NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto, all falling over 2% [4][5]. Sector Performance - The chemical sector performed well, with several stocks reaching their daily limit up, including Danhua Technology, Poly United, and Yonghe Shares [7][8]. - The innovation drug sector was active, with stocks like Haichen Pharmaceutical hitting the daily limit up, and other companies like Changshan Pharmaceutical and Wanbangde also showing significant gains [6]. - The precious metals sector saw a rise, particularly in silver, with companies like Hunan Silver and Zhongrun Resources reaching their daily limit up [12][13]. Notable Stocks - In the chemical sector, Danhua Technology rose by 10.16%, Poly United by 10.05%, and Yonghe Shares by 10.01% [9]. - In the agricultural chemicals sector, stocks such as Sulihua Shares and Xianda Shares also reached their daily limit up, indicating strong market interest [10]. - The silver price surged recently, with spot silver rising by 3.4%, reaching a peak of $36 per ounce, the highest level since February 2012 [14].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.04%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.13%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.40% [2] - The chemical sector showed resilience, rising against the market trend, while sectors such as pet economy, education, and textile apparel faced significant declines [4] Sector Performance - The chemical sector saw notable gains, with specific stocks like Danhua Technology, Poly United, and Yonghe Shares hitting the daily limit up [7] - The precious metals sector also experienced upward movement, particularly in silver, with stocks like Hunan Silver and Zhongrun Resources reaching their daily limit up [14] Notable Stocks - In the innovation drug sector, Hailin Pharmaceutical achieved a 20% increase, while Changshan Pharmaceutical rose over 14% [7] - Chemical stocks such as Sulihua Shares, Xianda Shares, and Changqing Shares also saw significant gains, with each reaching close to the daily limit up [9][10] Precious Metals Insights - The silver price surged recently, with spot silver rising by 3.4%, reaching a peak of $36 per ounce, the highest since February 2012 [16] - The demand for precious metals is supported by inflation risks and geopolitical tensions, although fluctuations in U.S. Federal Reserve policies and the dollar's performance may increase volatility [16]

Group 1: Crude Oil Market Dynamics - As of May 30, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding strategic reserves, decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436 million barrels, while gasoline inventories increased by 5.219 million barrels [1] - U.S. domestic crude oil production rose by 0.07 million barrels to 13.408 million barrels per day [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader stated that Iran has achieved a complete nuclear fuel cycle, indicating potential long-term oversupply in the global crude oil market if OPEC+ continues to increase production, which could exert downward pressure on oil prices [1] Group 2: Methanol Market Insights - China's methanol port sample inventory stands at 581,000 tons, increasing by 58,000 tons week-on-week; production enterprise inventory is at 370,500 tons, up by 15,500 tons [1] - The market price for methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu, is 2,302 yuan/ton, rising by 27 yuan/ton; operating rate is at 87.19%, up by 0.22% [1] - The forecast for methanol September contract indicates short-term fluctuations with resistance at 2,270 yuan/ton, suggesting a wait-and-see or short position strategy [1] Group 3: Chlor-alkali Market Overview - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda is stable at 880 yuan/ton; chlor-alkali profit is at 681 yuan/ton [1] - Weekly production capacity utilization for caustic soda is at 84.1%, up by 1.5% [1] - The forecast for caustic soda September contract suggests short-term fluctuations with resistance at 2,365 yuan/ton, recommending a wait-and-see approach [1] Group 4: Iron Ore Market Trends - Global iron ore shipments totaled 34.31 million tons from May 27 to June 2, an increase of 2.423 million tons week-on-week [1] - Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments amounted to 28.688 million tons, with Australian shipments at 19.205 million tons, down by 0.927 million tons [1] - The forecast for iron ore prices indicates a weak trend due to seasonal demand decline and expected supply recovery, with a reference pressure level of 750 yuan/ton [1]

2025年06月05日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金：小非农超预期走弱 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：跟随反弹 | 3 | | 铜：美元走弱，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：震荡横盘 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 锌：区间调整 | 9 | | 铅：低位企稳 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：短线成本托底，预期偏弱压制 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈与减产博弈，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：基本面暂无改善，反弹空间或有限 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪扰动，上方空间有限 | 17 | | 多晶硅：弱势基本面格局 | 17 | | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 24 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 24 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing participation of companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), in stock repurchase and increase loans, driven by supportive policies and market stabilization efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Loan Statistics - As of June 4, 607 listed companies have disclosed 651 stock repurchase and increase loans, with a total loan amount limit of 1260.25 billion yuan since October of the previous year [1]. - Among these companies, 393 are private enterprises, accounting for 64.74%, with a total loan amount limit of 669.36 billion yuan, representing 53.11% of the total [2]. - State-owned enterprises account for 27.84% of the total, with 169 companies disclosing 180 loans amounting to 485.26 billion yuan, which is 38.51% of the total [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The stock repurchase and increase loans have stabilized market expectations and mitigated negative market cycles under external pressures, while also optimizing the capital structure of listed companies [1][3]. - The average loan amount for repurchase and increase has significantly increased, with 463 repurchase loans totaling 794.32 billion yuan and 188 increase loans totaling 465.93 billion yuan [4]. Group 3: Policy Support - The People's Bank of China announced the optimization of two monetary policy tools, combining a total of 800 billion yuan for supporting capital markets, which includes 300 billion yuan for stock repurchase and increase loans [5]. - The maximum loan term has been extended from one year to three years, and the required self-funding ratio for repurchase has been reduced from 30% to 10% [5].