投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】 31号 【 一 国贸 期货 | | | | | 技资咨询号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | Z0017251 2025/6/11 | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/6/9 | 2025/6/10 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4830 | 4855 | 25.00 | | | MEG内盘价格 | 4382 | 4376 | (6.00) | 现货资讯: 短纤:涤纶短纤跌54至6358。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4602 | 4612 | 10. 00 | 短纤生产企业价格僵持运行,贸易商价格偏暖震 | | MEG收盘价 | 4256 | 4269 | 13.00 | 荡,下游按需采购,场内成交一般。 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6575 | 6575 | 0.00 | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 场价格在6360-6660现款现汇含税自提 ...

Group 1: Polyester Fiber Market Overview - Polyester fiber is the most widely used synthetic fiber, expected to reach a global production of 79 million tons in 2024, accounting for 58% of the entire fiber market [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for polyester fiber from 2010 to 2030 is projected to be 5.1%, driven by its durability and cost-effectiveness [1] - Polyester prices remain stable due to abundant supply, primarily influenced by the price of purified terephthalic acid [1] Group 2: Regional Demand and Growth Projections - Asia will continue to dominate global polyester demand, accounting for 86% in 2024, projected to rise to approximately 89% by 2034 [2] - China's polyester demand is expected to grow from 56 million tons in 2024 to 85 million tons by 2034, while South Asia's demand will increase from 7 million tons to 13 million tons in the same period [2] - Despite potential trade tensions between the U.S. and China affecting 2025 demand, long-term fiber consumption growth is anticipated to continue [2] Group 3: Styrene Demand in South Asia - South Asia is becoming a key player in driving global styrene demand, with significant imports from East Asia [3] - The region's average annual import growth rate for styrene from 2019 to 2024 is projected to be 5.3%, making it the largest styrene importing region by 2022 [3] - By 2030, South Asia's styrene imports are expected to reach approximately 1.5 million tons, driven by strong economic growth [3] Group 4: Competitive Landscape in Styrene Market - The competition in the South Asian styrene market is intensifying, with exporters from various regions, including the Middle East and the U.S., vying for market share [4] - China's role in the styrene market is changing, impacting the global landscape, while India is expected to emerge as a significant consumption center [4]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - N/A Group 2: Core Views - Polyester downstream load remains at 91.8% despite the expected cut - off, and recent promotions have helped with inventory reduction [2] - PTA will reduce inventory in the following time, and the price - basis increase sales actions of major factories have had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight [2] - The change in large PTA factories' sales strategies, especially the behavior of canceling warehouse receipts to sell spot, is effectively changing the market's view on PTA's forward - spread positions [2] - It's difficult for downstream reductions to form a unified force, and even though polyester has been promoting centralized production cuts, it's hard to have an effective impact on the market, and the downstream's resistance to the upstream seems weak [2] Group 3: Summary by Indicators Price Changes - PTA spot price dropped from 4895 to 4830, a decrease of 65 [2] - MEG inner - market price fell from 4408 to 4382, a decrease of 26 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4652 to 4602, a decrease of 50 [2] - MEG closing price dropped from 4261 to 4256, a decrease of 5 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6600 to 6575, a decrease of 25 [2] - Polyester staple fiber basis decreased from 103 to 94, a decrease of 9 [2] - 7 - 9 spread increased from 94 to 138, an increase of 44 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash - flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price increased from 5880 to 5881, an increase of 1 [2] - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 720 to 694, a decrease of 26 [2] - East China water - bottle chip price increased from 5918 to 5921, an increase of 3 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price increased from 5918 to 5921, an increase of 3 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price increased from 6018 to 6021, an increase of 3 [2] - Outer - market water - bottle chip price remained unchanged at 780 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 256 to 323, an increase of 67.29 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10600 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 4000 to 4025, an increase of 25 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16500 [2] - Cotton 328 price increased from 14460 to 14590, an increase of 130 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit decreased from 1658 to 1626, a decrease of 32.57 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7130 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash - flow increased from 268 to 332, an increase of 64.29 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7250 [2] Market Conditions - In the spot market of polyester staple fiber, the prices of production enterprises are stable, traders' prices fluctuate within a range, downstream purchases as needed, and on - site transactions are limited [2] - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is between 5880 - 5990 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping by 15 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Polyester raw materials and bottle chip futures are weakly volatile, most supply - side quotes are stable, downstream demand is cautious, and market transactions are light [2] Load and Production and Sales - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) increased from 88.90% to 91.30%, an increase of 0.02 [3] - Polyester staple fiber production and sales rate decreased from 60.00% to 76.00%, a decrease of 16.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 67.00% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) remained unchanged at 50.40% [3]

Group 1: PTA Market Overview - In May, the PTA market showed a generally favorable fundamental situation with a continuous decline in social inventory, but the fundamentals began to weaken by the end of May as production facilities gradually restarted, leading to an increase in PTA operating rates [1] - The average PTA operating rate in May slightly decreased month-on-month, but the production volume remained high, with a total PTA production of 29.69 million tons from January to May, an increase of 840,000 tons or 2.9% year-on-year [2] - The restart of new PTA facilities is expected to increase supply, with the Jiangsu Shenghong 2.5 million tons/year PTA facility starting production on June 7, which will enhance supply expectations [2] Group 2: Textile Raw Material Demand - In May, the operating rates for polyester filament and short fibers remained stable, but began to decline towards the end of the month, indicating a seasonal weakening in textile raw material demand [3] - The operating rate for polyester bottle chips rose to 85.1% in mid-May due to recovering domestic demand and strong export markets, but the processing fee for bottle chips fell to a low of 200 yuan/ton, leading to a slight decrease in operating rates by the end of May [3] Group 3: Inventory Trends - PTA social inventory showed a continuous decline in May, with a total reduction of 1.012 million tons from the peak in late February, reaching 4.469 million tons by June 6 [4] - The decline in inventory is attributed to production facility maintenance and good demand, but the pace of inventory reduction has slowed as polyester operating rates began to fall and PTA operating rates increased [4] Group 4: Cost Factors - The cost side of PTA is influenced by crude oil prices and PX supply-demand dynamics, with current trends indicating a weak outlook for crude oil prices despite seasonal demand peaks in the U.S. [5] - PX supply-demand fundamentals are generally favorable, but PX prices are likely to remain weak due to the overall supply-demand situation in the polyester industry chain [6]

Group 1: Industry Overview - China's manufacturing sector has maintained its position as the world's largest for 15 consecutive years, with continuous advancements in industrial technology and innovation leading to the emergence of high-value new products [1] - The optimization and upgrading of industrial structure are driven by the innovative achievements of private enterprises, contributing to global economic development [1] Group 2: Hengli Group Co., Ltd. - Hengli Group's industrial silk, which is lightweight yet strong enough to lift a small car, has gained popularity in over 30 countries due to its unique properties [2] - The company has experienced double-digit growth in export revenue annually, attributed to its ongoing technological innovation capabilities [2] - After overcoming significant technical challenges, Hengli secured an order from a major South Korean company, marking a successful breakthrough in high-end polarizer film production [3] Group 3: Guangdong Tosstar Technology Co., Ltd. - Tosstar provides comprehensive automation solutions for manufacturing, with its intelligent manufacturing equipment being recognized in various international markets [4] - The company has established a presence in nearly 50 countries, serving over 15,000 clients, and has seen a 19.48% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, reaching approximately 600 million yuan [5] - Tosstar's strategy involves differentiating its offerings based on regional market demands, focusing on high-end technology for Western clients and initial automation solutions for Southeast Asian clients [5] Group 4: Shenyang Yuanda Intelligent Industrial Group Co., Ltd. - Yuanda's joint venture in Saudi Arabia has successfully launched a factory capable of producing 2,000 elevators annually, with an export revenue of 580 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a 14% increase [6] - The company has adapted its products to meet diverse international standards, successfully passing rigorous testing in markets like Singapore [6] - Yuanda's ability to rapidly respond to urgent client needs, such as producing 21 escalators in under a month, showcases its operational efficiency and commitment to customer satisfaction [7] Group 5: Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government's support in financing and legal protections has bolstered companies' confidence in expanding international markets [8] - Companies are committed to continuous technological innovation and compliance with regulations, aiming to leverage "Chinese manufacturing" as a means to foster global industrial cooperation [8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2025 Indian potash fertilizer contract price has been set at $349 per ton, which is expected to boost the potash fertilizer market [4][20] - The domestic potassium chloride market is experiencing limited supply and tight circulation, with domestic potassium chloride production reduced and inventory at low levels [21][22] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.73% this week [15] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) reported 4033 points, down 1.08% from last week [17] Key Product Tracking - The price difference for polyester filament POY has expanded, while the price of chlorantraniliprole 97% continues to rise [29] - The domestic potassium chloride market is characterized by limited supply and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [21][22] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., and Yaqi International; beneficiary stocks include Cangge Mining and Dongfang Iron Tower [27] - Other recommended stocks span various sectors including chemical leaders and fluorine chemicals [5]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | 技资咨询号 Z0017251 2025/6/9 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/6/5 | 2025/6/6 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4845 | 4895 | 50. 00 | | | | | | | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4425 | 4408 | (17.00) | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨26至6394。现货市场:涤纶 | | PTA收盘价 | 4644 | 4652 | 8.00 | 短纤生产企业价格僵持运行,贸易商价格稳中有 | | MEG收盘价 | 4283 | 4261 | (22.00) | 涨,下游按需采购,场内成交一般。 | | | | | | 1.56dtex*38mm半光本白(1.4D)涤纶短纤华东市 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6575 | 6600 | 25.00 | 场价格在6330 ...

芳烃橡胶早报 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 63.9 559 842 4945 6990 90.11 283.0 334 106 85.3 76.4 56044 220 0.35 65.6 562 824 4915 6990 80.56 262.0 409 137 85.3 81.3 55840 200 0.35 64.9 563 825 4865 6950 87.21 262.0 360 161 85.3 81.3 55447 195 0.35 65.3 557 820 4845 6930 78.19 263.0 368 155 85.3 81.3 65665 200 0.45 66.5 561 818 4895 6930 73.27 257.0 419 118 85.6 81.3 65665 215 0.40 变化 1.2 4 -2 50 0.00 -4.92 -6.0 51 -37 0.3 0.0 0 15 -0.05 PTA现货成交 日均成交基 ...

| 华 | 北 | 套 | 吨 | 年 | 的 | 装 | 起 | 升 | 启 | 中 | 该 | 装 | 此 | 前 | 旬 | 停 | 车 | 执 | 行 | 检 | 修 | 南 | 套 | 各 | 温 | 重 | 河 | 2 | G | 置 | 6. | 6 | 日 | 置 | 月 | 两 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 万 | / | M | E | 于 | 于 | 4 | 下 | 万 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the overall credit spread of AAA - rated entities slightly widened, while the spreads of AA+ electronic and AA pharmaceutical and biological industries significantly compressed, and the credit spreads of bonds in other industries and ratings fluctuated slightly. [2][3][24] - For urban investment bonds, the overall credit spread fluctuated slightly this week, with most regional spreads slightly widening, and the spreads of AA - rated urban investment entities in regions such as Guizhou and Yunnan slightly compressing. [2][27][28] - Regarding industrial bonds, the credit spread showed a pattern of widening at the short - end and slight fluctuation at the long - end this week. [2][31] - For bank capital bonds, the overall credit spread fluctuated slightly this week, and the 5 - year second - tier and perpetual bonds remained strong. [2][35] - It is recommended to continue to focus on the opportunities of 3 - 5 - year industrial bonds with good liquidity and yields above 2% and high - coupon bank second - tier and perpetual bonds this week. [2][41] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - The net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 170 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 72.4 billion yuan compared with last week. The total issuance was 282.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 178 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 112.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 105.6 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 10.4 billion yuan, an increase of 30.3 billion yuan compared with last week. [6] - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 32.7 billion yuan, an increase of 6.8 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 121.4 billion yuan, an increase of 42.9 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 15.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 122.1 billion yuan. [6] 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance interest rates of AA+ and AAA - rated financial bonds decreased significantly this week, while that of AA - rated industrial bonds increased significantly. The changes in the issuance interest rates of other bonds and ratings did not exceed 7BP. [3][13] - Specifically, the issuance interest rate of AA+ - rated financial bonds decreased by 20BP compared with last week, mainly due to the issuance of "25 Great Wall Guorui CP002". The issuance interest rate of AAA - rated financial bonds decreased by 13BP, mainly due to the issuance of "25 Huishang Bank 01". The issuance interest rate of AA - rated industrial bonds increased by 23BP, mainly due to the high - coupon issuance of bonds such as "25 Honghe 03". [13] 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume and Turnover - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 269.6 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 181.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.5 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 258 billion yuan, a decrease of 80.6 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 311.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 149.5 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 1.25 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.21 billion yuan. [14] - The overall turnover rate of credit bonds decreased compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.17%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points; that of industrial bonds was 1.52%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points; that of financial bonds was 2.18%, a decrease of 1.04 percentage points; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.36%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points. [15] 3.2.2 Yield - Except for the significant increase in the yield of AA - rated credit bonds over 10 years, the yield fluctuations of credit bonds with different terms and ratings did not exceed 2BP. The yield of AA - rated credit bonds over 10 years increased by 9BP, reaching 3.59%. [19][20] - Taking AA+ - rated 5 - year bonds of each type as an example, the yields of different types of bonds decreased to varying degrees this week. For industrial bonds, the yields of privately - issued and perpetual industrial bonds decreased by 4BP and 3BP respectively. For urban investment bonds, the yield of AA+ - rated 5 - year bonds decreased by less than 1BP. For financial bonds, the yield of commercial bank ordinary bonds increased by less than 1BP, and that of secondary capital bonds increased by 2BP. For asset - backed securities, the yield of AA+ - rated 5 - year securities decreased by 3BP. [20] 3.2.3 Credit Spread - Overall, the credit spread of AAA - rated entities slightly widened this week, while the spreads of AA and AA+ - rated entities in some industries significantly compressed. The spreads of AA+ electronic and AA pharmaceutical and biological industries compressed by 28BP and 25BP respectively, and the credit spread of AA+ leisure services widened by 9BP. The fluctuations of credit spreads of bonds in other industries and ratings did not exceed 5BP. [24] - For urban investment bonds, the overall credit spread fluctuated slightly. The spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, and 5 - 10Y bonds widened by 2BP, 2BP, 1BP, and 2BP respectively, and the spread of bonds over 10 years compressed by less than 1BP. Regionally, most regional spreads slightly widened, and the spreads of AA - rated urban investment entities in Guizhou and Yunnan compressed by 1BP and 4BP respectively. [27][28] - For industrial bonds, the credit spread showed a pattern of widening at the short - end and slight fluctuation at the long - end. The spreads of private and perpetual industrial bonds within 1 year widened by 2 - 5BP, the spreads of 5 - year AA+ private and perpetual industrial bonds compressed by 2BP and 1BP respectively, and the spreads of 10 - year industrial bonds fluctuated slightly. [31] - For bank capital bonds, the overall credit spread fluctuated slightly, showing a pattern of slight widening at the short - end and slight compression at the long - end. For bank secondary capital bonds, the spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA - rated bonds widened by 1BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively, and the spreads of 10 - year AAA - and AA - rated bonds compressed by 1BP and 1BP respectively. For bank perpetual bonds, the spreads of 1 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA - rated bonds widened by 2BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively, and the spreads of 10 - year AAA -, AA+, and AA - rated bonds compressed by 1BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively. The 5 - year second - tier and perpetual bonds remained strong. [35] 3.3 This Week's Bond Market News - The issuer, Guangdong Mengtai High - tech Fiber Co., Ltd., had its entity rating and the rating of its "Mengtai Convertible Bond" downgraded. [2][40]