Group 1 - The A-share market is entering a critical data validation period in January 2026, influenced by policy implementation, macro data, corporate performance, and liquidity changes, leading to increased volatility and a tendency for phase rebalancing [1] - Sectors that led in December, such as defense, 6G, and satellite internet, require performance or order validation to digest their gains, while themes with clear industrial trends like commercial aerospace and AI computing may still present active opportunities [1] - The strategic resource attributes of certain non-ferrous metal sectors, particularly strategic minor metals like antimony, tungsten, and rare earths, are being revalued by the market due to their essential role in technological breakthroughs and their strategic scarcity [1] Group 2 - Three key industry directions are highlighted: first, strategic resources and cyclical recovery sectors, focusing on upstream resource products with strategic scarcity, including industrial metals (copper), strategic minor metals, and energy metals (potash) [2] - Second, the focus is on technological self-reliance and new productivity sectors, emphasizing clear industrial trends and high visibility in performance for leading companies in areas such as AI computing, digital economy, semiconductor domestic substitution, and commercial aerospace [2] - Third, there is an emphasis on domestic demand recovery and structural improvement, with some domestic demand sectors having attractive valuations after prolonged adjustments [2]

以下文章来源于宇观策略 ，作者张宇生 宇观策略 . 光大策略张宇生团队感谢您的支持 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 报告摘要 12月A股、港股出现分化 12月A股主要指数普遍上涨。受政策利好催化、市场风险偏好回暖等因素影响，12月（截至26日），A股 主要指数普遍上涨，其中创业板指涨幅最大，12月份累计上涨了6.3%，而科创50涨幅最小，累计上涨了 1.4%。行业端分化明显，国防军工、通信、有色金属涨幅居前。相对而言，金融地产及消费等板块表现则 较差，如传媒、房地产、食品饮料、银行等。 12月港股市场走势震荡。12月受美联储降息预期波动、美股波动等因素影响，港股市场整体走势较为震 荡。截至2025年12月26日，恒生香港35、恒生指数、恒生综合指数、恒生科技、恒生中国企业指数的涨幅 分别为2.4%、-0.2%、-0.4%、-1.8%、-2.4%。 A股观点：市场有望震荡上行 政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。一方面，历史来看，A股市场中几 乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情；另一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯 实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。此外，政策红 ...

Market Overview - On December 30, A-shares experienced a narrow range consolidation with quick sector rotation, closing with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down at 3965.12 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.49% and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.63%. The total trading volume for A-shares was 2.16 trillion yuan [1]. Capital Flow - The net outflow of main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 23 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 11.62 billion yuan and a closing net outflow of 4.02 billion yuan, resulting in a total net outflow of 23.83 billion yuan for the day [2][3]. - The CSI 300 index saw a net inflow of 0.375 billion yuan, while the ChiNext experienced a net outflow of 7.857 billion yuan [4]. Sector Performance - The following sectors had significant net inflows: - Non-ferrous metals: 8.432 billion yuan, with notable inflow into Yun Aluminum [6]. - Automotive: 3.940 billion yuan, with significant inflow into Shanzigaoke [6]. - Electronics: 3.763 billion yuan, with notable inflow into Shuo Beid [6]. - Machinery: 3.049 billion yuan, with significant inflow into Juyi Suoj [6]. - Oil and petrochemicals: 1.625 billion yuan, with notable inflow into Hengyi Petrochemical [6]. - The sectors with the largest net outflows included: - Utilities: -5.219 billion yuan, with significant outflow from Mindong Electric Power [6]. - Computers: -5.215 billion yuan, with notable outflow from Tuo Wei Information [6]. - Defense and military: -5.048 billion yuan, with significant outflow from Aerospace Development [6]. - Electric power equipment: -4.647 billion yuan, with notable outflow from Goldwind Technology [6]. - Retail: -4.425 billion yuan, with significant outflow from Gongxiao Daji [6]. Institutional Activity - The top stocks with net institutional purchases included: - Tailor Co., Ltd.: 152.31 million yuan, with a daily increase of 9.97% [8]. - Aerospace Development: 134.72 million yuan, with a daily decrease of 3.13% [8]. - Longi Machinery: 77.13 million yuan, with a daily increase of 5.78% [8]. - The stocks with the largest net institutional sales included: - Zhejiang Shibao: -615.44 million yuan, with a daily decrease of 10.01% [10]. - Electric Media: -738.89 million yuan, with a daily decrease of 10.00% [10]. Institutional Focus - Recent institutional ratings and target prices for selected stocks include: - Liu Gong: Strong Buy with a target price of 16.50 yuan, current price 11.95 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 38.08% [11]. - Stone Technology: Strong Buy with a target price of 224.10 yuan, current price 151.81 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 47.62% [11]. - Chip Source Micro: Buy with a target price of 167.18 yuan, current price 144.99 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 15.30% [11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights significant volatility in the precious metals market, with gold, silver, and palladium prices experiencing sharp declines, particularly silver which saw its largest single-day drop in nearly five years [1][10] - On February 29, gold futures fell to $4,343.6 per ounce, a decrease of 4.59%, while silver futures dropped to $70.46 per ounce, down 8.73%, and palladium futures plummeted by 16.58% to $1,687.9 per ounce [12] Group 2 - Institutional investors are adjusting their positions as they reassess the development and profitability outlook of the AI industry for the coming year, leading to a general decline in U.S. tech stocks [5] - The U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.51%, the S&P 500 down 0.35%, and the Nasdaq down 0.50%, influenced by significant sell-offs in major tech stocks, particularly Tesla which fell by 3.27% [5] - In Europe, stock indices showed mixed results, with the UK market slightly down by 0.04%, while France and Germany saw minor increases of 0.10% and 0.05% respectively, amid ongoing peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine affecting defense and military stocks [7] Group 3 - The oil market experienced a notable increase in prices, with light crude oil futures for February delivery closing at $58.08 per barrel, up 2.36%, and Brent crude oil futures at $61.94 per barrel, up 2.14%, driven by concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions [9]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Driven by policies and growth logic, the commercial space sector has recently gained momentum. Since late November, the sector's convertible bonds have shown a pattern of premium compression followed by price increases. The current valuation is high but the equity nature has strengthened, and the short - term forced redemption pressure may be relatively small [6][11]. - A - shares strengthened overall during the week, with the ChiNext and small - and medium - cap styles outperforming. Cyclical manufacturing sectors such as non - ferrous metals and defense industries led the gains, and the sector congestion showed a differentiated pattern [6][11]. - The convertible bond market also strengthened overall, with small - cap indices outperforming large - cap ones. Valuations were differentiated, and the implied volatility and median price remained at high levels. Structurally, cyclical manufacturing sectors performed well, and some high - premium convertible bonds had significant price increases [6][11]. - The primary market issuance was stable with sufficient reserves. Clause games were the current focus, with issuers having a weak willingness to lower the conversion price while the redemption game intensified. Attention should be paid to the valuation adjustment under emotional disturbances [6][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Theme Weekly Review - During the week from December 21 to December 27, 2025, the equity market strengthened overall. The lithium - battery and commercial space sectors were strong. In the lithium - battery sector, the lithium - battery electrolyte, lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium - ore, and power - battery indices performed well. In the commercial space sector, the aerospace technology, commercial space, and satellite - internet indices led the gains [24]. 3.2 Market Weekly Tracking 3.2.1 Main Indices Strengthened, Small - and Medium - Cap Performed Well - A - share main indices strengthened during the week, with the ChiNext Index performing strongly among the three major indices. In terms of style, the CSI 500 and CSI 2000 indices outperformed other major size indices [26]. - In terms of capital, the net outflow of the market's main funds converged. The average daily trading volume in the market recovered, and the net outflow of main funds slightly decreased. Main funds showed a net inflow on Monday and Wednesday [26]. - Cyclical manufacturing sectors in the A - share market were strong. Non - ferrous metals, defense industries, power equipment, and machinery sectors led the gains, while banks and coal sectors were relatively weak [29]. - In terms of trading volume, funds mainly concentrated in the electronics, power equipment, and machinery sectors. The average daily trading volume of the electronics sector accounted for over 15% [31]. - The market sector congestion was significantly differentiated. The congestion in the electronics, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, machinery, and defense industries sectors recovered, while that in the social services, beauty care, and food and beverage sectors decreased [33]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Market Strengthened Overall, Small - Cap Indices Performed Well - The convertible bond market strengthened from December 21 to 27, 2025. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose, with small - cap convertible bond indices outperforming large - cap ones. The trading volume recovered, and the average daily trading volume exceeded 80 billion yuan [34]. - Valuations in the convertible bond market were differentiated. By conversion parity range, the conversion premium rate in the 140 - 150 yuan parity range expanded significantly, while those in the 130 - 140 yuan and 100 - 110 yuan ranges compressed significantly. By market price range, the conversion premium rate only expanded significantly in the 100 - 110 yuan and 130 - 140 yuan ranges, and compressed significantly in the 120 - 130 yuan and over 150 yuan ranges [37]. - The weighted implied volatility of the convertible bond market balance strengthened with fluctuations during the week, remaining at a historically high level. The median market price of convertible bonds also strengthened slightly with fluctuations and remained at a high historical level [40]. - Convertible bonds in cyclical manufacturing sectors were more elastic. Defense industries, non - ferrous metals, light manufacturing, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the gains. In terms of trading volume, the construction materials, electronics, and light manufacturing sectors accounted for over 10% each [44]. - Most individual convertible bonds recovered during the week. The number of convertible bonds with a range increase of 0 or more was 338, accounting for 84.7% of all outstanding convertible bonds in the market. The top five convertible bonds in terms of cross - week gains during the conversion period were Jiamei Convertible Bond, Zai 22 Convertible Bond, Mengsheng Convertible Bond, Guanglian Convertible Bond, and Huayi Convertible Bond, while the bottom five were Yingte Convertible Bond, Furong Convertible Bond, Xinzhi Convertible Bond, Huati Convertible Bond, and Saili Convertible Bond. The top five gainers generally had a relatively high conversion premium rate [46]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Issuance and Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Plan Update - During the week from December 21 to 27, 2025, one convertible bond was listed (Pulian Convertible Bond), and two were available for subscription (Jin 05 Convertible Bond and Shuangle Convertible Bond). Jin 05 Convertible Bond's issuer is Jinpan Technology, in the power equipment industry, with a latest debt rating of AA+ and an issuance scale of 1.67 billion yuan. Shuangle Convertible Bond's issuer is Shuangle Co., Ltd., in the basic chemicals industry, with a latest debt rating of AA - and an issuance scale of 800 million yuan [50]. - Seven listed companies updated their convertible bond issuance plans during the week, including three at the exchange acceptance stage, one at the general meeting of shareholders approval stage, and three at the board of directors' proposal stage. The total disclosed scale of projects at and after the exchange acceptance stage was 75.74 billion yuan [51][52]. 3.3.2 Clause - Related Announcements - **Lowering the Conversion Price**: Six convertible bonds issued announcements of expected triggering of a lower conversion price, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 4.1; five convertible bonds announced not to lower the conversion price, with a market - value - weighted average PB of the underlying stocks of 1.4; no convertible bonds proposed to lower the conversion price [59]. - **Redemption**: Two convertible bonds announced expected triggering of redemption; four announced not to redeem in advance; four announced early redemption [60].

国防车工 相关研究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 看好 证券分析师 韩强 A0230518060003 hanqiang@swsresearch.com 武雨桐 A0230520090001 wuyt@swsresearch.com 穆少阳 A0230524070009 musy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 联系人 达邵炜 A0230124030001 dasw@swsresearch.com 班牙/分出京 申万宏源研究微信服务号 近期军工受订单及业绩等不确定性影响进行调整,但我们认为军工调整逐渐结束,军工 ● 进入筑底上升期:短期来看,年末订单交付加速,四季度业绩预期环比改善,目"十五 五"规划持续推进,一季度起订单有望从"点状"到"线状"乃至"面状"落地;中长 期看，由于地缘政治不确定性加剧，消耗类武器装备持续放量，以及军贸需求加大带来 巨大投资机会。建议重点关注军工底部配置时机,细分方向关注新型主战装备、消耗类 武器、军贸、军工智能化等领域投资机会；同时重视商业航天、深空经济、可控核聚变 等主题性外延投资机 ...

Group 1 - The external environment presents uncertainties but is overall favorable, with global economic resilience expected in 2026, as major economic organizations forecast slight declines in growth rates compared to 2025, with the World Bank predicting a growth rate of 2.40% for 2026, up from 2.30% in 2025 [6][10] - The U.S. is likely to continue lowering interest rates in 2026 due to a weak labor market, with expectations of more than one rate cut, as indicated by the Federal Reserve's recent actions [6][13] - The U.S. dollar's strength is supported by weak economic expectations, with factors such as reduced immigration and uncertain tariff policies suppressing economic activity [6][21] Group 2 - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for qualitative and quantitative economic growth, emphasizing stability in employment, enterprises, and market expectations, with policies to support effective growth and enhance quality [6][44] - The investment sector is expected to stabilize, with government initiatives to increase investment in infrastructure and optimize the use of local government bonds [6][49] - Consumer spending is projected to improve, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption and enhancing the supply of quality goods and services [6][52] Group 3 - The market is expected to continue a "slow bull" trend, with overall company performance anticipated to improve, driven by supportive policies and resilient economic dynamics [6][59] - The technology (TMT) and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to benefit from long-term policy support and are key drivers of economic transformation [6][67] - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as non-involution, supply-demand changes, and emerging themes like artificial intelligence and renewable energy [6][70]

Market Overview - In December, the A-share market showed a recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,959.62 points, up 1.83% from the end of November. The ChiNext Index and CSI 500 Index recorded significant gains [16][17] - The market liquidity decreased in December, influenced by year-end capital recovery and reduced risk appetite among investors. The total amount of A-share lock-up releases increased significantly, leading to net selling by major shareholders [24][27] Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly in commercial aerospace, terahertz technology, and controllable nuclear fusion, saw active trading in December. The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of technological innovation, which is expected to sustain investor interest in these areas [4][5] - Among the major sectors, telecommunications, defense, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials led the gains, with telecommunications achieving the highest increase of 14.35% [17][21] Policy Analysis - The central government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies in 2026, focusing on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply. This is anticipated to stimulate consumption and investment in related sectors [49][50] - The central economic work conference highlighted the need for innovation-driven growth and the development of new productive forces, particularly in artificial intelligence and renewable energy sectors [50][51] Valuation Levels - As of December 25, the dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the ChiNext Index is at a historical high, positioned at the 90.74th percentile. Most major indices saw an increase in their historical valuation percentiles compared to the previous month [43][44] - In terms of industry valuation, 21 sectors experienced an increase in valuation levels, with retail, telecommunications, electronics, and computing exceeding the 50th percentile of their historical P/E ratios [44][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the overall market performance [26]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector has shown resilience, with the Shenwan Defense Military Index rising by 6% last week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 [1][5]. - The report suggests that the military sector is entering a recovery phase, driven by accelerated order deliveries and improved performance expectations for the fourth quarter [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to enhance the quality and quantity of military capabilities, indicating a new growth cycle for the industry [4]. - There is a significant investment opportunity in the military sector due to increasing geopolitical uncertainties and rising demand for consumable military equipment [4]. - The report highlights the importance of focusing on new combat equipment, consumable weapons, military trade, and military intelligence as key investment areas [4]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense Military Index outperformed the market, with a 6% increase, ranking second among 31 major industry sectors [5]. - The average increase for the civilian-military integration index was 8.45%, indicating strong performance in this segment [5]. - Top-performing stocks in the defense sector included Shenjian Co. (61.2%), Aerospace Engineering (43.39%), and China Satellite (36.24%) [12]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Defense Military Index is 88.65, indicating it is in the upper range historically, suggesting potential for further growth [13][19]. - The report notes a divergence in valuations among sub-sectors, with aerospace and aviation equipment showing relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [13][19].

Group 1: European Stock Market Performance - The European stock market has seen a strong upward trend, driven by a bull market in commodities and increased defense spending, with the Stoxx 600 index rising 16% this year, surpassing the S&P 500 in USD terms [1] - Bank stocks have led the market rally, surging 65%, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1997, supported by strong earnings and shareholder returns [1] - Analysts suggest that the European stock market has favorable factors for the coming year, including lower exposure to potential tech stock bubbles that have driven Wall Street [1] Group 2: Banking Sector - The banking sector has outperformed other industries, with profits soaring due to increased fees and trading income, contrary to expectations of declining earnings from lower interest rates [2] - Major banks like Santander, Société Générale, and Deutsche Bank are on track for their best year ever, supported by a favorable economic environment [2] - Analysts from JPMorgan believe European banks are in a "perfect environment" and maintain a positive outlook for the sector through 2026 [2] Group 3: Defense Sector - The defense sector has shown strong performance, driven by U.S. policies urging European nations to increase military spending, despite recent adjustments due to peace talks in Ukraine [3] - Companies like Babcock International Group and Rheinmetall have achieved record highs, with significant stock price increases [3] - Analysts expect that detailed national defense budgets in 2026 will boost order momentum and earnings expectations [3] Group 4: Mining Sector - Mining stocks have performed exceptionally well, driven by geopolitical concerns increasing demand for precious metals and rising copper prices due to electrification needs [3] - Fresnillo Plc has seen a fivefold increase in stock price, making it the best performer in the FTSE 100 index for 2025 [3] Group 5: Underperforming Companies - Pandora has faced significant challenges, with a 47% drop in stock price due to rising silver costs and macroeconomic uncertainties affecting consumer spending [4][5] - Puma's stock has plummeted 50%, marking one of its worst years ever, attributed to disappointing earnings and increased competition [6] - The automotive and chemical sectors have experienced consecutive declines, with manufacturers facing weak demand and rising costs due to tariffs [7] - WPP has become the worst-performing stock in the Stoxx 600 index, grappling with CEO departures and concerns over AI impacting the advertising industry [8]