仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 宁夏#72 5330 -50 -70 5630 主力合约 5698 50 -2 内蒙#72 5350 0 -50 5700 01合约 5666 22 -14 现货 盘面 最新 品种 项目 铁合金早报 | 硅铁自然块 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5300 | -70 | -100 | 5630 | 05合约 | 5776 | 12 | -8 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 陕西#72 | 5300 | -50 | -80 | 5600 | 09合约 | 5842 | -12 | -50 | | | 陕西#75 | 6000 | 0 | 50 | | 主力月基差 | -68 | -100 | -68 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5900 | 100 | 350 | | 1-5月差 | -110 | 10 | -6 | | 贸易商价 | 天津#72 | 5800 | 0 | 50 | | 5-9月差 | -66 | 24 | 42 | | ...

Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 23, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the iron alloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disturbances, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the iron alloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - related supply contractions and inventory reductions, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and inventory increases in some products [7][8][9] Summary by Directory Iron Alloy Price Forecast and Hedging - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.68% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.5%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a volatility of 12.10% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.9% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Although production profits initially declined in early September, they have now recovered, and production remains at a high level. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and there may be a situation of "peak season without prosperity" [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/kWh, and the silicon - iron spot price in some areas is lower than the cost price, forming a cost - bottom expectation. There are rumors of a possible reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, but currently, the supply is relatively sufficient [4] - **Term Structure and Capital**: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal has not improved, and the contango has deepened. Meanwhile, the iron alloy's open interest has been declining for two consecutive weeks [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations**: There are still expectations of supply - side contractions, but there is a lack of substantial actions, and there is a high risk of price surges followed by declines [5] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces to 33000KVA. An important article in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine may help regulate the market. Silicon - iron enterprise inventory and total inventory have decreased, with a 9.3% and 0.53% month - on - month decline respectively [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. There are rumors of a reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, which may affect the cost of manganese - silicon [7] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon - iron enterprise operating rate remains high, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 19.24% month - on - month, and the total inventory has increased by 5.97% month - on - month. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon - manganese price has decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 82, with a daily increase of 118 and a weekly increase of 152. The silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased by 243 compared to the previous day [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 94 and a weekly increase of 86. The silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 629 compared to the previous day [11] Graphical Data - The report includes graphs of the term structure spreads of silicon iron, silicon manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal graphs of market prices, basis, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese [12][15][25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 23, the silicon ferroalloy 2511 contract was reported at 5698, up 0.11%. The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia was reported at 5480. With the "steady growth and anti - involution" core of the steel industry's steady - growth work plan, considering supply - demand, profit, and market aspects, the market is expected to move in a volatile manner. For manganese silicon, on September 23, the 2601 contract was reported at 5882, down 0.03%. The spot price of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was reported at 5700. Based on the macro - situation, fundamentals, profit, and market conditions, it is also expected to move in a volatile manner. Investors should pay attention to risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - SM (manganese silicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,882.00 yuan/ton, up 12.00 yuan; SF (silicon ferroalloy)主力合约收盘价 was 5,698.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan. SM期货合约持仓量 was 538,430.00 hands, down 10,244.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 370,641.00 hands, down 19,135.00 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in SM were - 69,051.00 hands, down 3,157.00 hands; for SF, it was - 32,025.00 hands, up 735.00 hands. The SM 5 - 1 month contract spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan; the SF 5 - 1 month contract spread was 110.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan. The SM warehouse receipts were 59,497.00 sheets, down 629.00 sheets; the SF warehouse receipts were 17,232.00 sheets, down 243.00 sheets [2] 2. Spot Market - In Inner Mongolia, the price of FeMn68Si18 was 5,700.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; in Guizhou, it was 5,790.00 yuan/ton, up 90.00 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 5,700.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan. The manganese silicon index average was 5,717.00 yuan/ton, up 59.00 yuan. The SM主力合约基差 was - 182.00 yuan/ton, down 62.00 yuan. In Inner Mongolia, the price of FeSi75 - B was 5,560.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Qinghai, it was 5,370.00 yuan/ton, up 80.00 yuan; in Ningxia, it was 5,480.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SF主力合约基差 was - 218.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore (Mn38 block) at Tianjin Port was 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged. The price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of secondary metallurgical coke in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 760.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan. The manganese ore port inventory was 452.50 million tons, unchanged [2] 4. Industry Situation - The manganese silicon enterprise operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.70%; the silicon ferroalloy enterprise operating rate was 34.84%, unchanged. The manganese silicon supply was 208,775.00 tons, down 5,355.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy supply was 113,100.00 tons, up 100.00 tons. The manganese silicon manufacturer inventory was 198,900.00 tons, up 32,100.00 tons; the silicon ferroalloy manufacturer inventory was 63,390.00 tons, down 6,550.00 tons. The national steel mill inventory of manganese silicon was 14.98 days, up 0.74 days; the national steel mill inventory of silicon ferroalloy was 14.67 days, up 0.42 days [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The demand for manganese silicon from the five major steel types was 121,426.00 tons, down 888.00 tons; the demand for silicon ferroalloy from the five major steel types was 19,588.60 tons, down 148.80 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.00%, up 0.15%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.38%, up 0.18%. The crude steel output was 7,736.86 million tons, down 228.96 million tons [2] 6. Industry News - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the Financial Regulatory Administration led the establishment of the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism, with white - list project loans exceeding 7 trillion yuan, supporting the construction and delivery of nearly 20 million housing units. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments issued the "Notice on the Work Plan for Steady Growth of the Iron and Steel Industry (2025 - 2026)". From 2025 to 2026, the added value of the iron and steel industry will grow at an average annual rate of about 4%. Precise regulation of production capacity and output will be implemented, classification management of steel enterprises will be promoted, and new production capacity will be strictly prohibited. Efforts will be made to ensure the supply and price stability of raw materials such as iron ore and coking coal. Berkshire began to gradually reduce its holdings of BYD stocks purchased in 2008 in August 2022, and its shareholding was below 5% in June last year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The steel market shows marginal improvement in supply - demand, with the steel industry's growth plan boosting sentiment. The short - term trend of the rebar futures market is expected to be narrow - range consolidation. The iron ore market has a complex situation of supply - demand, and the ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand and cost. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to follow the overall trend of the black commodities due to limited fundamental drivers [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price on September 23, 2025, showed a strong and volatile trend. The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3185 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.41%) from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 109,000 lots in positions. The spot price was stable with an increase, and the trading volume recovered. The national building materials inventory decreased by 1.63% to 518.39 million tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.74% to 224.59 million tons. The steel industry's growth plan boosted market sentiment, and it is expected that the short - term rebar futures will be in narrow - range consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract i2601 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend on September 23, 2025, closing at 808.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.12%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 410,000 lots and a decrease of 12,000 lots in positions. The supply side showed a decline in shipments from Australia and Brazil, while the demand side saw an increase in molten iron production and a decline in steel mill profitability. With multiple factors at play, the ore price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range [1]. - **Coking Coal**: On September 23, 2025, the coking coal futures price declined. The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1217.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan/ton (1.18%), with a decrease of 7023 lots in positions. The supply side saw an increase in production at coal mines, and the demand side showed an increase in demand from coking enterprises. However, due to the general profit situation of coking and steel enterprises, it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures will have wide - range fluctuations [1]. - **Coke**: On September 23, 2025, the coke futures price declined. The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1718 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (1.18%), with a decrease of 489 lots in positions. The supply side faced rising costs of coking coal, and the demand side saw an increase in demand from some steel mills. But due to the poor profitability of steel mills, the short - term coke futures are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 23, 2025, the manganese silicon futures price showed a weakening trend. The main contract was reported at 5870 yuan/ton, down 1.84% from the previous day, with an increase of 5304 lots in positions to 339,800 lots. The current weekly output of manganese silicon is still high, and the demand side has limited drivers. The cost and inventory sides have little change, so it is expected to follow the overall trend of black commodities [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On September 23, 2025, the ferrosilicon futures price showed a weakening trend. The main contract was reported at 5648 yuan/ton, down 2.01% from the previous day, with a decrease of 11,755 lots in positions to 200,000 lots. The production of ferrosilicon is at a relatively high level, and the demand side has weak drivers. Although the cost of raw materials has increased, the inventory is still high. Therefore, it is expected to follow the overall trend of black commodities [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on contract spreads, basis, and spot prices of various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, as well as data on profits and spreads between different varieties [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price trends of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report displays the spread trends between different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][31][32][33][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: The report presents the spread trends between different varieties such as main contract hot - rolled coil and rebar, rebar and iron ore, rebar and coke, etc [41][43][45]. - **Rebar Profits**: The report shows the profit trends of rebar main contracts such as disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [46][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [52][53].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Views - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are subject to disturbances in the silicon - based sector and are in a weak and volatile state [1]. - The trend strength of silicon iron and manganese silicon is - 1, indicating a weak outlook [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon iron, the closing prices of SiFe2511 and SiFe2601 are 5648 and 5644 respectively, down 88 and 92 from the previous trading day. The trading volumes are 281,849 and 83,330, and the open interests are 200,009 and 105,097. For manganese silicon, the closing prices of MnSi2511 and MnSi2601 are 5850 and 5870 respectively, down 80 and 94. The trading volumes are 172,673 and 335,892, and the open interests are 103,885 and 339,805 [1]. - **Spot Data**: The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia is 5350 yuan/ton, silicon manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia is 5730 yuan/ton, manganese ore Mn44 block is 40.0 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small materials in Shenmu is 710 yuan/ton, up 60.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The spot - 11 futures spread of silicon iron is - 298 yuan/ton, up 88; the spot - 01 futures spread of manganese silicon is - 140 yuan/ton, up 80. The SiFe2511 - SiFe2601 spread is 4 yuan/ton, up 4; the MnSi2511 - MnSi2601 spread is - 20 yuan/ton, up 4. The MnSi2511 - SiFe2511 spread is 202 yuan/ton, up 8; the MnSi2601 - SiFe2601 spread is 226 yuan/ton, down 2 [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: On September 22, the price range of 72 silicon iron in different regions is 5200 - 5450 yuan/ton, and that of 75 is 5900 - 6050 yuan/ton. The FOB price of 72 is 1050 - 1070 dollars/ton, and 75 is 1100 - 1140 dollars/ton. The price range of 6517 silicon manganese in the north is 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in the south is 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [1]. - **Trade Data**: In August 2025, China's silicon manganese exports were 4592.948 tons, a 93.3% increase from July. The total exports from January to August were 21037.805 tons. The imports in August were 2373.259 tons, similar to July, and the total imports from January to August were 9875.399 tons. The top ten export destinations of Chinese silicon iron in August 2025 include Japan (7862 tons), South Korea (7808 tons), etc. [1][3]. - **Procurement News**: Xinyu Iron and Steel set the silicon iron procurement price at 5800 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous round, with a quantity of 800 tons [4].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on September 23, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coils show dull demand and wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are affected by the silicon - based sector and show weak fluctuations [2][11]. - Coke and coking coal have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16]. - Logs fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price of l2601 was 807.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.94%. The spot prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc. increased. The basis and spreads showed some changes [4]. - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2601, the closing price was 3,185 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan or 0.85%. For hot - rolled coil HC2601, it was 3,380 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan or 0.54%. There were changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][8]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and demand data were released on September 18. In August 2025, national steel production data and steel import and export data were also provided [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices and various spreads showed different changes [11]. - **News**: Price ranges of ferrosilicon 72 and 75 in different regions on September 22 were reported. Import and export data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in August 2025 were also provided [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both, indicating a weak trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Spot prices and basis showed changes [16]. - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts showed little change. Spot prices of various log types in different markets were mostly stable [19]. - **News**: The US Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 17 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, prices vary by region and type, e.g., Ningxia 72 natural block is 5380 with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 100; Tianjin 72 export price is 1025 USD with no daily or weekly change. For silicon manganese, Inner Mongolia 6517 factory - ex price is 5730 with a weekly change of 50 [1]. - Multiple price charts for different types of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including market prices, contract closing prices, and basis prices [2][6]. Supply - 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises' production data in China is presented, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025. Silicon manganese production in China is also shown on a weekly basis from 2021 - 2025 [4][6]. Demand - Indicators related to demand such as China's estimated and actual crude steel production, metal magnesium production and prices, silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and silicon manganese demand in China are presented from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese are provided, including inventory of 60 sample enterprises in different regions, warehouse - receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days from 2021 - 2025 [5][7]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related data like electricity prices in different regions, market prices of raw materials such as semi - carbonated manganese ore and manganese blocks, and profit - related data such as production profit of silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese in different regions from 2021 - 2025 are presented [5][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent significant decline in ferroalloy futures, particularly manganese silicon and silicon iron, is driven by a combination of high supply and weakening demand expectations from steel mills [1][2] - Analysts highlight that the previous price increases were primarily driven by "anti-involution" logic and expectations of reduced supply, supported by macroeconomic factors such as domestic policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - Current market conditions show a concerning fundamental outlook, with steel prices under pressure, leading to expectations of reduced iron output and lower electric furnace operating rates [2][3] Group 2 - Manganese silicon inventory has been rising rapidly, with the latest data showing an increase to 198,900 tons, while silicon iron inventory remains stable [2] - Despite the increase in manganese silicon inventory, production has decreased to 208,800 tons, indicating potential pressure on inventory levels if demand does not improve [2] - The cost support for manganese and silicon iron remains strong, with manganese ore prices showing slight increases, suggesting limited downside potential for prices in the near future [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in ferroalloy futures, particularly in manganese silicon and silicon iron, is driven by changes in supply and demand dynamics, with high supply and weak demand expectations leading to price drops [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The previous price increase in ferroalloy futures was primarily driven by "anti-involution" logic and expectations of reduced supply, supported by macroeconomic factors such as domestic policies and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - Current market sentiment has shifted, with high supply continuing while expectations of reduced production from steel mills and weak terminal demand are rising, leading to a decline in ferroalloy prices [3][4]. - The ferroalloy industry is characterized by overcapacity, and while prices had previously risen due to cost factors and expectations of production cuts, no significant reduction policies have been implemented recently [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Manganese silicon inventory has increased rapidly, with 63 companies reporting a stock of 198,900 tons as of September 19, up by 32,100 tons week-on-week, although this remains within normal ranges compared to previous years [4]. - Silicon iron inventory has also remained stable, with 60 companies reporting a decrease from 70,000 tons to 63,300 tons, indicating a simultaneous decline in apparent demand [4]. - The overall production profit has improved, maintaining high output levels despite the pressure on demand, with expectations of reduced steel production potentially leading to negative feedback for ferroalloy prices [4][5]. Group 3: Future Price Expectations - The market still holds expectations for demand during the "golden September and silver October" period, while cost support remains strong, particularly for manganese ore prices, which have not seen significant declines [5]. - Factors such as high import concentration of manganese ore and potential disruptions from overseas labor strikes or natural disasters could lead to price increases, limiting the downside for manganese ore prices [5]. - Both manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to have limited price decline potential, with forecasts suggesting a wide fluctuation range of 5,600 to 5,950 yuan per ton in the fourth quarter [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **成材**: Short - term outlook is oscillating with a slight upward bias, but the upside is limited. The trading logic is mainly based on industry fundamentals, with the price of finished steel showing signs of recovery, yet the weak downstream demand may constrain the price rebound [9]. - **煤焦**: In the short - term, there is an increase in both supply and demand. The downstream is actively replenishing inventory before the National Day holiday, which supports the confidence in price support. The futures market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [10]. - **铁合金**: Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon continue to face a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with pressure on inventory. However, the short - term restocking demand before the National Day holiday may support prices. It is expected that prices will be in a weak consolidation state [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01. Weekly Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most black commodity futures and spot prices increased. For example, the futures price of coke J2601 rose from 1625.5 to 1738.5, a 6.95% increase, and the spot price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke increased from 1390 to 1500, a 7.91% increase [7]. 02. This Week's Black Market Forecast - **成材** - **Logic**: The blast furnace utilization rate and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased, while the average capacity utilization rate and average operating rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills decreased. The finished steel rebounded last week, but the weak downstream situation remains unchanged. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set an average annual growth target of about 4% for the steel industry in the next two years [9]. - **View**: Short - term oscillation with a slight upward bias. - **Future Focus**: Macroeconomic policies and downstream demand. - **煤焦** - **Logic**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp last week, and the futures price of coal and coke oscillated with an upward bias. On the spot side, coal prices in Shanxi rebounded slightly, and some coke enterprises in Inner Mongolia planned to raise prices. The environmental protection policy in Tangshan affected market sentiment, but the overall rigid demand for raw materials remained strong [10]. - **View**: Short - term supply and demand both increase, and the market will maintain a wide - range oscillation. - **Future Focus**: The resumption process of coal, coke, and steel production and changes in imported coal clearance. - **铁合金** - **Logic**: Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp. Domestically, the market has entered the traditional peak season, but demand is still weaker than expected. On the supply side, the output and operating rate of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while those of ferrosilicon remained stable. On the demand side, the weekly demand for silicon manganese and ferrosilicon of the five major steel types decreased for three consecutive weeks. On the inventory side, silicon manganese inventory increased significantly, while ferrosilicon inventory decreased. The cost of silicon manganese and ferrosilicon has certain support [11]. - **View**: Prices are expected to be in a weak consolidation state. - **Future Focus**: Domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits, production, and domestic production restrictions. 03. Variety Data - **成材** - **螺纹钢**: Last week, the output was 206.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.48 tons; the apparent demand was 210.03 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.96 tons. The total inventory was 650.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.58 tons [13][20]. - **热轧**: Last week, the output was 326.49 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.35 tons; the apparent demand was 321.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.34 tons. The total inventory was 377.99 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.67 tons [24][29]. - **基差**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions and delivery months showed different changes, such as the 1 - month basis of rebar in Shanghai being 88 yuan/ton last Friday, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [32]. - **煤焦** - **焦炭**: The total inventory last week was 915.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.99 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 66.4 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 tons [47]. - **焦煤**: The total inventory last week was 2550.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 66.68 tons. The independent coke enterprise inventory was 940.4 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56.9 tons [55]. - **Other Data**: Data such as the profit per ton of coke for independent coke enterprises, inventory availability days, and the ratio of coke to coking coal prices also showed corresponding changes [63][67]. - **铁合金** - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, silicon manganese, and ferrosilicon all increased last week. For example, the spot price of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia (6517) increased from 5650 to 5730 yuan/ton [79]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of manganese ore increased. The inventory of silicon manganese increased significantly, while the inventory of ferrosilicon decreased [81][92]. - **Output and Demand**: The output of silicon manganese decreased slightly, while the output of ferrosilicon remained stable. The demand for both silicon manganese and ferrosilicon decreased for three consecutive weeks [83][89]. - **Import and Production**: In July, the import of manganese ore was 274.35 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.23%. In August, the production of silicon manganese was 90.93 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.94% [96].