Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 28 日星期一 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周五铁矿主力 2509 合约收于 709.0，下跌 1.59%。次主力 2505 合约收于 760.5，下 跌 1.36%。夜盘收跌。 【重要资讯】 1、中共中央政治局 4 月 25 日召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 指出，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发 展格局，统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，坚定不移办好自己的事，坚定不移扩 | | | | | 大高水平对外开放，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，以高质量发展的确定 | | | | | 性应对外部环境急剧变化的不确定性。会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观 | | | | | 政策，用好用足更 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite is rising as U.S. Treasury yields decline. In China, the economy started well in Q1, and the government will adopt more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Overseas: The U.S. President plans to set "fair" tariff prices, and a trade agreement is expected to be reached in three to four weeks. Market expectations of a缓和 in the Sino - U.S. trade war and speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The Q1 domestic economy was better than expected, and the industrial enterprise profits in March turned positive year - on - year. The Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the black commodity may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the energy and chemical products may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, energy metals, and biomedicine. However, the good economic start in Q1 and the expected proactive macro - policies will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile last week. Gold reached a record high and then fell back. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the ambiguity of the Fed's interest - rate cut path have increased the volatility of precious metals. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver may follow gold passively and be weaker than gold. Key economic data in the U.S. need to be monitored next week [3][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel rebounded on Friday, but the apparent consumption of five major steel products declined, and the demand may have peaked. Although there are rumors of crude steel reduction, the steel output is still rising, and the short - term steel market may fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Friday. The iron - water output is high, but there are rumors of crude steel reduction, and the supply of iron ore may increase in the second quarter. It is advisable to view the short - term iron ore market as a range - bound one and pay attention to the peak of iron - water output [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the supply is declining. The short - term prices of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price will remain in a narrow - range shock in the short term. Although there is support from current demand and inventory reduction, the increase in supply may put pressure on the price if demand weakens later [9]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term driving factors come from the macro - environment and crude oil. The asphalt supply is at a low level, and the demand has been slightly boosted before May Day. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [9]. - **PX**: After the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PX price rebounded. It will maintain a tight - balance state and may test the pressure level, showing a volatile pattern [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up is high, but the terminal start - up is declining. The short - term price may rebound slightly but is limited by downstream conditions and will mainly fluctuate [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The obvious inventory - reduction time of ethylene glycol will be postponed, and it will maintain a weak - shock pattern [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand is weak, and the short - fiber will maintain a weak - level shock [12]. - **Methanol**: The supply is less than expected, and the demand has led to inventory decline before the festival. The short - term price will repair in a shock, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of PP is not prominent, but there may be a negative demand feedback in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the maintenance progress [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE downstream is basically stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Politburo meeting proposed more proactive macro - policies, and the U.S. may lower tariffs on China. The supply of copper is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season with declining inventory. The short - term market sentiment may be boosted, but the medium - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the demand is strong with declining inventory. It is advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions [14]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited due to macro risks and the news of production resumption in Wa State [14]. Agricultural Products - **U.S. Soybeans**: The net long positions of U.S. soybean funds are increasing. Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean - producing areas need to be monitored, and the price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall at the beginning of sowing [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot basis of domestic soybean meal has declined, and the short - term decline space of the 09 contract may be limited. It is advisable to reduce the short - position risk exposure [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil - mill start - up is low, and the soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly. The rapeseed oil is in the off - season with high inventory and weak basis [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: If the U.S. biofuel policy is favorable, the palm oil demand is expected to be stable. The production of Malaysian palm oil is increasing, and the price may fluctuate within a range and be relatively strong [17]. - **Pigs**: The market is mainly trading seasonal trends. The spot price may be under pressure before May Day, and the futures may be dominated by risk - aversion sentiment and decline [17]. - **Corn**: Drought in Henan has led to a strong rebound in the corn price. The upper limit of the price range is restricted by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. There is a possibility of the C05 contract declining to narrow the basis [18].

一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年04月28日08时24分 报告导读： 目前的贸易局势对钢材的下游消费以及出口均将构成一定的负面冲击 ，但对钢坯出口影响有限。上周五中央召开政治局会议，强调降准降息，创设 新的政策和金融工具，提振市场信心。房地产方面，核心城市土地拍卖市场热度快速回升 ，土地溢价提升，或预示房地产市场将逐步企稳回升 ，但 全国范围来看，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。 进入四月之后，下游需求进入高峰期，我的钢铁最新的数据显示，上周螺纹钢产量有所下 降，厂库回落，社库下降，总库存继续下降，表需环比有所回落。从空头的角度来看，高需求或无法持续，消费旺季过后，表观需求将季节性回 落，当前或已经见顶。从技术上看，上周五晚间期价上涨，伴随持仓量上升，显示多头更加积极主动。 操作建议： 维持观望，谨慎追涨 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3101 | | 0 0 | 25 | 0.81 ...

耗尽潜力的经济 据乌克兰国家银行的数据，去年乌克兰经济虽有增长，但增速明显低于此前预期：仅增长2.9%而非预期的4%。乌克兰国家银行称增长放缓的原因是安全 形势恶化、电力短缺以及粮食产量低下等。去年第四季度，因农业产出大幅下降（同比减少30.3%），乌克兰的国内生产总值（GDP）下滑了0.1%。 今年伊始，乌克兰经济的负面趋势愈演愈烈。2025年前两个月，乌克兰的GDP仅增长1.1%，不到去年同期的三分之一。与此同时，乌克兰的通胀率不断 攀升。乌克兰国家银行近期发布的通胀报告显示，2月CPI指数已升至13.4%。CPI高企的主要原因是年干旱导致粮食产量低以及企业生产成本高企（与提 高工资和能源价格上涨有关），导致未加工和加工食品价格大幅上涨。某些农产品生产的形势已经非常严峻，去年底，乌克兰有好几家大型油脂加工厂因 原料短缺而停产。 当局目前还未公布2025年3月的CPI数据，但物价仍在持续上涨已经是确定的事实。特别是鸡蛋价格预计还将上涨一波，面包和蔬菜价格也在上升。生产 者价格通胀（即出厂价格，最终会反映到消费市场）更是创下纪录，2025年3月其增速同比高达37%。原因是电力和天然气价格上涨65%，输气费也有 ...

贵金属： 连续上涨后黄金步入调整。上周美国总统特朗普释放缓和信号，一方面表示尽管他对美联储 未能更快地降低利率感到沮丧，但他无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。另一方面称对华关税将 " 大幅下降 " 。周末有报道称，首个贸易协议即将达成，并且很可能会是与印度签署。克利夫兰联储主席哈马克上周 四在接受采访时表示，美联储 5 月已基本排除降息可能。但她同时释放关键信息称，若经济走向有了明 确证据， 6 月存在采取政策行动的空间。美国财长贝森特最新演讲阐述中美达成贸易协议的可能框架， 称需 2-3 年。此前，特朗普一再要求美联储降息，并研究能否免去鲍威尔的美联储主席职务，并引发市 场恐慌。而随着贸易战的扰动，引发一系列的连锁反应，金融市场动荡、衰退风险加剧、去美元化、美 国债务等问题愈发凸显，伴随政策和市场的不确定性，黄金价格持续刷新历史新高。考虑美国债务压力 进一步凸显，滞胀形式进一步明确下，黄金整体维持强势，但近期在贸易战没有进一步烈化、特朗普和 美联储态度软化、滞胀预期一定程度消化、多头较为拥挤下，黄金或面临调整压力。 集运指数： 上周五 EC 低开震荡， 06 合约收于 1365.1 点，下跌 2.92% 。盘后公布 ...

来源：科技日报 本报记者 马爱平 数台无人驾驶掘进台车沿着既定轨道精准穿行，矿石运输、设备调度等数据在智慧矿山调度中心大屏实 时更新……这并非科幻电影的布景，而是新疆大明矿业集团股份有限公司(以下简称"大明矿业")在天湖 铁矿打造的智慧矿山实景。 近年来，大明矿业深化数字化、智能化技术应用，实现无人驾驶设备广泛应用、矿山操作系统智慧化升 级。戈壁深处的矿山，正在经历数智蝶变。 从"人海战术"到"无人驾驶" 井下采掘作业，是采矿过程中危险系数最高的环节之一。如今，通过智能设备和远程操控系统，大明矿 业已在掘进、采矿中深孔凿岩、运输放矿工序实现无人化作业。 在大明矿业智慧矿山调度中心内，智能台车格外引人注目。大明矿业总经理赵宗义介绍，驾驶员通过智 能台车的操作系统主页面，能看见设备的回转压力、凿岩压力、推进压力等各项施工参数，实现巷道掘 进的精准化施工。该系统可替代传统人工现场操作，远离作业面，降低井下人员作业风险，提高掘进安 全性，适用于各类矿山的巷道掘进工程。 变革背后，是持续多年的技术攻坚。自2018年引进SAP矿山管理软件以来，大明矿业相继完成低品位难 选冶资源综合回收利用、智能化矿山管理系统开发、安全生 ...

Group 1 - As of April 25, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported 1347.84 points, a decrease of 22.74 points from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index was at 1122.40 points, reflecting a 1% increase [1] - In the Xingtai market, plans to raise coke prices have been announced, with wet quenching coke up by 50 yuan/ton and dry quenching coke up by 55 yuan/ton, effective from April 27 [1] - Vale's CFO indicated that iron ore prices are expected to stabilize around $100 per ton, but it is too early to assess the impact of trade wars on iron ore prices [1] Group 2 - Malaysia's palm oil export volume from April 1-25 reached 923,893 tons, a 14.75% increase compared to 805,130 tons in the same period last month; SGS estimates the export volume at 703,169 tons, a 3.6% increase from 678,698 tons [2] - As of April 24, methanol inventory at East China ports was 22.92 million tons, down from 29.90 million tons on April 17, a decrease of 6.98 million tons [2] - A company responded to inquiries regarding its low-cost soda ash production, stating there are no planned maintenance schedules for the Alashan natural soda project and that it has not received notifications about any price increase meetings [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 55.82 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 4.86%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.66 billion yuan, down 37.95% year-on-year [7] - The iron ore business faced price declines due to a downturn in the steel industry, with an average selling price of approximately 417 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32.68% year-on-year [7] - The copper segment turned profitable, with a sales volume of 24.8 thousand tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.42%, and a gross margin of 18.47% [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, lowering the expected net profit to 7.5 billion yuan and 9.59 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are set at 61.98 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.2% [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 750 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 32.6% [5] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be 61.2% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 7.3% [5] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are forecasted to be 11, 9, and 7 respectively [7]

研究院 黑色建材组 研究员 王海涛 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|铁矿周报 2025-04-27 市场情绪反复，矿价震荡运行 策略摘要 宏观上，本周美国对华关税表态反复，政策不确定性扰动市场交易情绪，铁矿石波动放 大。供应方面，本期铁矿石全球发运量小幅回升，近期铁矿发运窄幅震荡，内矿产量环 比下降，铁矿供给压力有所缓解。需求方面，本期五大材产量有所回升，延续去库趋势。 钢厂盈利率回升，铁水产量增长至年内高位，铁矿石需求相对旺盛。库存方面，本期铁 矿石港口库存有所上涨。整体来看，铁水增产空间有限，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾不突出， 关税对钢材出口影响预期仍在，且国内粗钢供给端存在一定变化，持续关注供给侧变化 对产业链的影响，关注关税变化和节前下游补库情况。 邝志鹏 kuangzhipeng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056360 投资咨询号：Z0016171 余彩云 yucaiyun@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03096767 投资咨询号：Z0020310 刘国梁 liuguoliang@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03108558 投资咨询号：Z0021505 ...

FFRINGTEDH 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年4月25日 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 板块 品种 点评 操作建议 进入月底,A股市场交易即将召开的政治局会议可 IF2506 能推出的增量刺激政策,白宫表现出关税缓和意向 IH2506 股指 避险板块坚挺,A股结构性分化 IC2506 。指数下方支撑较稳定,可卖出虚值看跌期权赚取 IM2506 权利金。 T2506 短期在政策节奏不确定性和资金面约束下,债市或仍以震荡为 单边策略上短期建议可以区间操作,关注政策出台 TF2506 主(10年期利率波动空间或在1.61%-1.7%),中期等待降准 节奏。基差策略上,建议参与TS合约正套策略。 国债 TS2506 降息落地,届时有望打开期债上行空间 曲线策略上建议适当关注做陡 金融 TL2506 金价短期将迎来长假节日期间消息扰动波动或上 升,建议轻仓参与,多头及时通过期货或期权等对 美联储官员释放鸽派信号 美股延续反弹态势 宽松预期提振贵金 AU2506 贵金属 冲风险;避险消退带来金银比的修复,银价或回到 AG2506 属 前高阻力位附近在32-34美元(8000-8500 ...