4月19日，地平线在2025地平线年度产品发布会在推出了L2城区辅助驾驶系统地平线HSD。同时，地平 线与奇瑞达成HSD的量产合作。(智通财经) ...

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Positive (Maintain) [1] Core Insights - The penetration rate of intelligent driving is continuously increasing, with a significant rise in high-level intelligent driving penetration [4][35] - Leading domestic and international automotive companies are focusing on the intelligent driving sector [4][35] - The intelligent driving chip market is expanding, with significant industry barriers [4][35] - Horizon Robotics is a leading domestic manufacturer of autonomous driving chips and intelligent driving solutions [4][35] - Black Sesame is making breakthroughs in high-end intelligent driving chips, with notable software optimization effects [4][35] Summary by Sections 1. Intelligent Driving Penetration - The global sales of high-level intelligent vehicles are accelerating, with an expected penetration rate of over 65% for high-level autonomous driving by 2030 [12][13] - In China, the penetration rate of intelligent vehicles is projected to reach 99.7% by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 48.1% for high-level autonomous driving from 2023 to 2030 [16][17] 2. Intelligent Driving Chip Market - The global ADAS SoC market reached 27.5 billion RMB in 2023, with China's market accounting for 14.1 billion RMB [85] - The market is expected to grow to 92.5 billion RMB globally by 2028, with a CAGR of 27.5% [85] 3. Key Players and Innovations - BYD is expected to lead in sales with 4.272 million units in 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 41.1% [36] - The "Whole Vehicle Intelligence" strategy by BYD aims to integrate electric and intelligent technologies for enhanced safety and efficiency [39] - Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) is seeing accelerated mileage growth, with significant improvements in AI training computing power [52][56] 4. Market Trends - The penetration rates of highway NOA and city NOA are steadily increasing, with domestic brands showing rapid growth compared to joint venture brands [28][29] - Huawei's QianKun ADS 3.0 architecture has been upgraded to enhance perception, decision-making, and control efficiency [66][67]

"司机可以全程0接管""买车就相当于请了代驾""用户可以一边开车一边开会"……从2024年开始，在不 少车企的新车发布会上，NOA（领航辅助驾驶功能）被当作核心卖点，成为各位车企高管卖力宣传的 重点，消费者也对"智能驾驶"甚至"自动驾驶"产生了更多期待。 然而，前不久小米SU7高速公路事故导致3人死亡的现实，将"智能驾驶"和"自动驾驶"推上风口浪尖。 人们猛然发现，当技术狂奔撞上安全红线，智能驾驶产业已悄然伫立在伦理、法律与商业化的交叉口。 "当前智能驾驶技术处于大爆发阶段，各大车企和零部件厂商都在积极进行研发和落地。"出行行业独立 分析师徐宏对记者说，"无论是智能驾驶想要更进一步，还是长期发展进化为自动驾驶，单靠车企和零 部件厂商是远远不够的。" 徐宏指出，智能驾驶的持续发展需要多方协力。地方政府的试点、法律法规的完善、车路云一体化的推 进等任何一方面若有欠缺，都将影响最终自动驾驶的实现。因此系统性、规模化的多方协作，或将成为 接下来很长一段时间里智驾行业的关键词。 随着自动驾驶在中国的发展全面提速，广州、武汉、北京等地近期陆续出台自动驾驶或智能网联汽车相 关条例，地方立法的先试先行，为国内自动驾驶行业的地 ...

Core Insights - The report focuses on the trends and market dynamics in the fields of intelligent driving and humanoid robots, highlighting the expected explosive growth in advanced driving technologies and the emergence of humanoid robots in commercial applications by 2025 [1][4]. Intelligent Driving - Advanced driving technology is anticipated to enter a phase of explosive growth, with a projected penetration rate exceeding 15% by 2025 and potentially surpassing 70% in the next 2-3 years, significantly altering the automotive landscape [1][4]. - The Robotaxi segment is reaching a critical turning point, with costs expected to align with ride-hailing services by 2025, suggesting a competitive edge for companies like Didi that integrate both self-operated and platform-based models [1][5]. - Key supply chain components such as intelligent driving chips, LiDAR, and sensor cleaning are expected to see substantial growth driven by policy, technology, and market demand, with companies like Horizon Robotics and Hesai Technology leading the way [1][5]. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector is poised for a breakthrough in mass production by 2025, with economic viability in general commercial scenarios expected by 2027, particularly in high-cost labor markets [1][6]. - The supply chain for humanoid robots is characterized by high-value components such as dexterous hands, lead screws, and sensors, which are becoming core segments due to their high barriers to entry and significant cost reduction potential [1][6]. - The domestic market for lead screws is growing, with a market share exceeding 10% and increasing, driven by the demand for lightweight materials like PEEK in humanoid robots [1][6]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain for intelligent driving and humanoid robots is evolving, with high-value segments like dexterous hands and lead screws becoming increasingly important due to their cost structure and technological barriers [1][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities in the supply chain, particularly in the context of rising demand for humanoid robots and the need for cost-effective solutions [1][6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment outlook for the automotive sector, particularly in the areas of advanced driving and humanoid robotics, driven by technological advancements and market dynamics [3][7]. Core Insights - Embodied intelligence is identified as the strongest industrial trend in the automotive sector, with smart driving and humanoid robots being the two key directions [3]. - The report forecasts a significant increase in the penetration rate of advanced driving systems, expected to exceed 15% by 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 200% [3][10]. - The supply chain for smart driving components, including chips and lidar, is highlighted as a high-value investment area due to its explosive growth potential [4][27]. Summary by Sections Advanced Driving - Advanced driving is entering a phase of explosive growth, with a projected penetration rate of over 70% in the next 2-3 years [3]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the Tier0.5 model versus full-stack self-research in data acquisition and customer response speed, with full-stack self-research expected to gain a competitive edge [3][20]. - The Robotaxi segment is anticipated to reach a tipping point by 2025, with operational costs aligning with traditional ride-hailing services [3][26]. Humanoid Robotics - The humanoid robotics sector is on the verge of commercialization, with significant advancements expected by 2025, particularly in high-cost scenarios [5][35]. - The report identifies key components such as dexterous hands and sensors as critical to the humanoid robotics supply chain, with high average selling prices (ASP) and barriers to entry [5][48]. - The Chinese supply chain is expected to rise significantly, contributing to the cost reduction and mass production of humanoid robots [5][48]. Supply Chain Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing penetration and localization rates of smart driving chips, with Nvidia and Tesla leading the market [27][29]. - The laser radar market is also projected to see significant growth, with major players like Hesai and RoboSense capturing substantial market shares [31][33]. - The anticipated reduction in costs for smart driving systems is expected to make advanced driving features standard in vehicles priced above 200,000 RMB by 2025 [30][34].

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of focusing on the constraints faced by Trump rather than speculating on his intentions, suggesting that the U.S. economy and U.S. Treasury rates are key variables for predicting the trajectory of the trade war [1] - It is anticipated that conflicts in the U.S.-China economic and trade sectors will not fully extend into the financial realm before the midterm elections in the U.S. [1] - The article suggests that the A-share market has reached a "chip bottom" in the short term, with a potential focus on technology-themed trading opportunities in April and May [1] Group 1: Trade War and Market Response - The article outlines ten key questions regarding how investors should respond to the escalating U.S.-China trade war, covering its evolution, overseas economies, domestic policies, market trends, and industry allocations [1] - It is expected that domestic policy responses will focus on prevention and pilot programs in April, with a larger scale of policy measures anticipated by mid-year [1] - The article predicts a significant style shift in the market by the third quarter, favoring core assets in consumption, advanced manufacturing, and cyclical sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Themes - The article identifies four major themes for investment focus: AI+ theme, tax-exempt and agricultural themes benefiting from domestic circulation and tariff countermeasures, the North Exchange theme, and the semiconductor self-sufficiency theme [2] - It highlights that external disturbances are beginning to ease, and the peak impact of tariffs has passed, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite [2] - The article suggests that investors should concentrate on sectors with strong performance certainty or order certainty, particularly those with relatively low valuation levels [2] Group 3: Financial Data and Economic Outlook - The article notes a slight recovery in social financing growth in March, driven by accelerated government bond issuance and restored credit demand [6] - It mentions that while short-term corporate loans have increased, medium to long-term loans remain under pressure due to debt replacement effects [6] - The article anticipates continued collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to support the expansion of social financing [6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The article discusses the potential for the semiconductor sector to benefit from tariff adjustments based on the manufacturing location of chips, particularly for domestic analog chip companies [11] - It emphasizes the importance of self-sufficiency in the context of the U.S.-China trade war, suggesting a focus on low domestic production rates and local wafer manufacturing [11] - The article also highlights the expected acceleration in the military electronics sector due to order recovery and the push for self-sufficiency amid tariff impacts [9]

Core Viewpoint - The combination of Co smo s and Omi n i v e rs e is expected to accelerate the development of physical AI, driving advancements in the intelligent driving and humanoid robot industries [1][7] Group 1: Industry Development - The evolution of CAE software and the CUDA ecosystem demonstrates that iterative improvements in simulation and development tools can significantly accelerate industry development, shorten R&D cycles, and lower engineering implementation thresholds [1][7] - The demand for physical AI is clear, and its widespread application could reduce the time and physical resources required for training in intelligent driving and humanoid robots [7] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Three investment themes are suggested: 1) Hardware suppliers for Co smo s and Omi n i v e rs e 2) The supply chain of intelligent driving and humanoid robots 3) Main manufacturers of intelligent driving and humanoid robots [1][7] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Co smo s provides a series of physical AI models that offer end-to-end scalability for complex training systems, utilizing 20 million hours of real-world data to create realistic synthetic videos for training [3] - The integration of Co smo s with the Omi n i v e rs e platform allows developers to create 3D scenes and generate realistic videos, enhancing the quality of training resources for intelligent driving companies [4] Group 4: Market Projections - The penetration rate of L3 intelligent driving is expected to reach 20% by 2029, an increase of 4 percentage points compared to non-physical AI-assisted scenarios, with the market for intelligent driving simulation software projected to reach 13.9 billion yuan by 2034 [4] - The global market for large language models in humanoid robotics is anticipated to exceed 100 billion dollars by 2028, driven by partnerships with leading humanoid robot manufacturers [5]

Core Viewpoint - The entry of Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology into the Chinese market has created a sense of urgency and anxiety among domestic autonomous driving companies, as they fear the potential competitive threat posed by Tesla's advanced AI capabilities [1][5][24]. Summary by Sections Tesla FSD Performance - Tesla's FSD has shown a mixed performance in China, with instances of both impressive driving capabilities and significant errors, highlighting the challenges of adapting to the complex driving environment in China [2][4]. - The underlying AI technology of Tesla is robust, allowing for smooth driving experiences in regular conditions, but it struggles with unique Chinese traffic scenarios due to a lack of localized data training [4][5]. VLA Model Introduction - The VLA model has emerged as a promising solution to the shortcomings of the end-to-end model, integrating visual, linguistic, and action capabilities to enhance vehicle understanding of complex driving situations [8][9]. - VLA's ability to interpret traffic signs and pedestrian intentions positions it as a potential game-changer in the autonomous driving landscape, especially if it can effectively address the unique challenges of Chinese roads [8][12]. Competitive Landscape - Four key players in the domestic market are actively developing VLA technology: Li Auto, Chery, Geely, and Yuanrong Qixing, each with distinct strategies and timelines for implementation [15][16]. - Li Auto's "MindVLA" aims for high accuracy in complex scenarios but faces challenges in managing dual systems, while Chery collaborates with major tech firms to enhance its capabilities [18][19]. - Yuanrong Qixing stands out for its aggressive development and production of VLA technology, positioning itself ahead of competitors in the market [19][21]. Future Outlook - The competition in the autonomous driving sector is shifting from engineering capabilities to the foundational AI model capabilities, with the upcoming deployment of VLA-equipped vehicles expected to provide clarity on the competitive dynamics between Tesla's FSD and domestic technologies [24][25].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is initiating strategic restructuring of state-owned automobile enterprises to create a world-class automotive group with global competitiveness and independent core technologies, leading the smart connected transformation [1][2] Group 1: Industry Trends - The automotive sector is experiencing a surge in demand due to the ongoing vehicle replacement policy and the upcoming Shanghai Auto Show in 2025, leading to a period of intensive new car releases by major manufacturers [1][2] - The stock market for the automotive sector has recently entered a correction phase, with significant fluctuations observed in the past two weeks, particularly among high-performing stocks that have seen declines of approximately 20%-30% from their peaks [3] Group 2: Company Developments - Xiaomi announced a placement of 800 million shares at HKD 53.25 per share, raising HKD 42.5 billion, while the automotive sector is facing a pullback [2] - Huawei's new car models, including the AITO M8 and the AITO S9 range extender, have received strong market interest, with pre-orders for the M8 surpassing 80,000 units [2] - The company expects continued strong performance from the automotive sector throughout the year, with a focus on identifying investment opportunities in companies with solid earnings support and new technology [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article uses the metaphor of a small-town cinema to illustrate the investment dynamics in the technology sector, emphasizing the importance of understanding uncertainty in investment opportunities [3][24]. Group 1: Investment Types - Investors can be categorized into three types: "Seat Holders," "Ticket Buyers," and "Seat Snatchers," each facing different uncertainties in the technology investment landscape [24][26]. - "Seat Holders" are early investors who buy into the uncertainty of whether a technology will succeed, focusing on investor psychology and market sentiment [24][26]. - "Ticket Buyers" invest when the uncertainty shifts to whether a technology will succeed, requiring thorough research and understanding of industry trends [24][26]. - "Seat Snatchers" look for quick gains and are influenced by market volatility, often entering after significant developments have occurred [24][26]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The technology sector is characterized by rapid changes driven by two main trends: technological innovation and government strategy [7]. - Successful investment in technology requires identifying hidden champions that may not be recognized until a significant trend emerges [6][7]. - The article highlights the importance of staying updated on industry news and trends to capitalize on emerging opportunities [18]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The dynamics of the technology market can lead to significant price fluctuations, especially during periods of heightened interest and speculation [16][24]. - The uncertainty surrounding technology investments can create both risks and opportunities, with different investor types responding differently to market changes [17][24]. - The article notes that while some investors may hold onto positions during downturns, others may quickly exit to minimize losses, reflecting varying investment strategies [9][10].